Big Digital Energy

EQT takes out Range Resources and crowns itself the natural gas champion, while Ovintiv buys its way back into the Montney with Logan Energy. An AI lab's S-1 flags behind-the-meter gas risk, SpaceX builds its own pipelines and hires a gas trader, and Amped Energy Solutions bets big on an all-electric frac fleet. Plus the fight over a possible Boca Chica State Park sale, mediators racing to Tehran before the midterms, diesel politics, and Exxon and Chevron earnings on deck.

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00:00 Old Man Coffee Goes to LA
02:47 EQT Takes Out Range
08:54 Ovintiv Heads Back to Canada
16:47 AI and Natural Gas Risk
21:21 Behind the Meter Debate
26:05 Texas Data Center Permits
28:22 Rocket Fuel Is Just Gas
36:09 Amped Electric Frac Fleet
39:37 Permian GORs and Gas Supply
41:25 Boca Chica State Park Sale
48:43 Tehran Diplomacy Scramble
53:21 Diesel and the Midterms
57:38 Exxon and Chevron Earnings
58:40 Next Week and Sign Off

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Brent whipsaws on Pakistan mediation hopes while the back of the curve sits in the 60s, which makes 2027 capital planning a mess for producers. New West Texas zones, the Barnett-Woodford, foreign money chasing US LNG, and a call for $250 oil against the peak demand crowd. Trump and Zelenskyy fight over diesel and refinery strikes, Europe enters winter short on gas, California weighs refinery restarts, Finland halts Google, and Venture Global buys its spot in the turbine line.

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00:00 Chuck Meets Andre Agassi
06:01 Brent Whipsaws on Mediation
09:36 Backwardation and 2027 Capex
11:28 New West Texas Plays
13:45 Foreign Money Into US LNG
18:55 The 250 Dollar Oil Call
24:15 China EVs and Oil Demand
27:56 Chuck's Gold Price Call
30:01 Join the Collide Community
32:33 Trump vs Zelenskyy on Diesel
39:44 Europe's Thin Gas Winter
42:54 Longhorns Playoff Hopes
44:58 California Refinery Restarts
49:17 Finland Halts Google
54:04 Texas Permit Pause
56:42 Venture Global's Turbine Play

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Houthi strikes on the Riyadh and Abha airports push the Saudi conflict into civil aviation as the WPC Congress opens next door, and Aramco's Amin Nasser warns inventories could take two years to refill. Is Saudi talking its book? Then Trump's Russian diesel deal and whose barrels it takes, whether behind-the-meter gas is really a loophole as data center moratoriums hit Texas and Memphis, and why rising Permian gas-oil ratios make Waha pricing matter more.

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00:00 Texas OU Fallout
04:48 Houthis Hit Saudi Airports
07:49 Nasser's Inventory Alarm
12:22 Saudi Risk Viewer Questions
17:46 Trump Iran and the Saudis
23:23 OPEC vs US Shale
26:58 Trump's Russian Diesel Deal
32:15 Refining Capacity Crunch
33:50 Diesel Outlook From Collide
38:17 Behind the Meter Build Out
44:58 One Energy Story
46:56 Permian Gas Keeps Growing
50:49 Is BTM a Loophole
54:41 Moratoriums Trump and Waha

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Europe blinks on diesel after the export ban threat, and the guys argue whether it was the art of the deal or a walk-back, plus why Republicans should force a vote on building refineries. Then trucking bankruptcies and why they might be a good thing, how Delta's Trainer refinery went from punchline to hedge and whether it's time to sell, Saudi Arabia's push to retake Bab al-Mandeb after a secret Camp David meeting, and the Supreme Court hearing Suncor and ExxonMobil v. Boulder.

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00:00 Remembering Eddie Van Halen
02:36 Rice Stadium Sells Its Name
07:47 Diesel Ban Threat and Europe
12:37 Build More Refineries
17:26 Pump Prices and the Midterms
22:44 Energy's Storytelling Problem
23:53 Trucking Bankruptcies Mount
28:07 Why Bankruptcies Might Help
30:23 JB Hunt IPO Stories
33:49 Delta's Refinery Bet
41:48 Saudis, Houthis and Camp David
47:35 SCOTUS Takes Up Boulder
50:29 Chuck's Crocs Countersuit
53:17 Boulder Culture Check

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Brent is back at $108 after the latest peace deal fell apart, physical traders are cashing in on the Brent to WTI spread, and the forward strip says the market still is not worried. A floated US diesel export ban draws pushback, Texas opens its highways to dyed diesel, and the case for letting the industry build refineries. Plus BP eyeing a return to US shale, 101 GW of behind the meter gas capacity, rising rates and data center finance, and viewer questions on AI economics.

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00:00 Brent at 108 and Hormuz whipsaw
04:56 A new energy world order
10:08 Diesel export ban backlash
14:41 Texas opens up dyed diesel
16:16 Congress takes on college sports
18:10 Let the industry build refineries
21:29 BP comes back to shale
25:57 Behind the meter power boom
27:33 AI labs and data center money
31:28 AI debt and AI burnout
34:01 How Chuck became a cofounder
35:52 Data centers and rising rates
39:40 Touring the house remodel
44:36 Viewer questions on AI economics
51:12 Farmland versus data centers
53:00 Data center rules and energy costs

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Saudi Aramco told at least two European term refiners they get zero crude in October, and all three Saudi export routes are impaired at once. Tim Burchett wants a diesel export ban, six EU countries want a windfall tax on oil profits, and Chuck pitches a Big Inch style plan to build Gulf Coast refineries under emergency powers. Plus Pakistan shutting markets at 9pm, Abbott freezing Texas data center permits, and an argument over behind the meter.

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00:00 Chuck's New Haircut
02:28 Burchett Wants an Export Ban
05:23 Saudi Cuts Europe Off
09:53 Germany's Energy Own Goal
15:47 EU Windfall Profits Tax
18:00 Chuck's Big Inch Plan
23:57 Pakistan Rations Fuel
28:11 AI Tokens and Data Centers
32:48 DeepSeek Undercuts Everyone
34:49 Abbott Freezes Texas Permits
40:58 Winning the AI Race
44:30 Airlines and Recession Risk
47:43 Which Models Collide Uses
49:25 Taco Bell Closer

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Distillate inventories are scraping bottom right as winter shows up. Maine heating oil is already past 5.30 a gallon, the Exxon Joliet refinery went down on a utility failure, and Irving's Saint John plant is out 75 days. European gas ran from 23 to nearly 30 per MMBtu while the EU quietly cut its storage target, and Chevron's Mike Wirth says the buffers are gone. Plus Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries, AI CEOs ask Washington for a leash, and the quietest hurricane season since 1950.

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00:00 Chuckless Birthday Edition
1:10 Sark Manning And AI Slop
5:50 UT Photo Goes Viral
9:01 Diesel And Distillate Crunch
14:32 The Pipelines That Died
17:38 Nantucket Drought Loans
20:09 Europe Scrambles For Gas
22:46 Hormuz Mines And Deals
28:07 Ukraine Hits Russian Refineries
31:04 AI CEOs Want Regulation
36:07 Token Burn And AI Flaring
39:16 EPA Rescinds Power Rules
41:05 Quietest Hurricane Season
43:24 Wirth Says Buffers Gone
47:12 Where The Amateur Line Went
53:24 Listener Questions On Refining
59:58 Jacob Jumps In

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Chevron is the only super major stepping into Venezuela, committing 7 billion across two JVs and targeting 600,000 barrels a day by 2031, while Exxon still calls the country uninvestable. Citadel keeps bidding on physical shale oil after Paloma and losing Wildfire to Magnolia. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says a nuclear deal with Iran may never happen. Plus Paul Ryan on the Overton window, 40 trillion in debt, diesel doing the real damage and the permitting reform that died with Manchin.

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00:00 Mark is back
00:55 Paul Ryan and the Overton window
03:39 Trump versus the Fed
05:48 Diesel is the real problem
08:49 Seven months and counting
10:57 Rhino politics and what comes next
15:11 Chevron bets seven billion on Venezuela
19:00 Nobody else wants Venezuela
22:31 Guyana as the better bet
25:26 What actually changed in Caracas
30:17 No nuclear deal with Iran
36:29 Safer but at what cost
39:14 The permitting reform that never came
43:05 Citadel hunts shale oil
46:51 Hedging as the real edge
50:58 Builders sell traders buy
55:27 Remembering September 11

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Trump calls the Venezuela concession the biggest oil deal in world history, so Chuck Yates and Kirk Coburn pull it apart with Mark Meyer out of the room. Whether heavy Venezuelan crude can ever land in the SPR, why a hundred year lease looks a lot like the concession that became BP, and what PDVSA has to be paid to cooperate. Plus Druckenmiller calling out his old Soros desk mate Scott Bessent on Treasury buybacks, ranking the super majors, and 40 trillion in debt.

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00:00 Houston Food Dives Without Mark
04:55 Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal
07:17 Defending Trump on the SPR
11:12 PDVSA Royalties and Ohio Shale
14:48 Would You Take the Meeting
19:14 Persia, BP and the Hundred Year Warning
24:21 National Oil Companies and Real Operators
25:49 Conoco Claims and CEO Changes
27:48 Tim Cook, Apple and AI CapEx
31:53 Ranking the Super Majors
36:34 Bessent Versus Druckenmiller
40:40 Oil Talked Down and AI Editorials
42:49 Where the First Opportunity Lands
46:03 Lightning Round
48:35 Forty Trillion in Debt
52:13 Tier Lists and Shout Outs

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​Energy markets are shaped by more than a headline price. In this Community Call, Sean Maher, VP of IR and Chief Economist at Phillips 66, joins us for a macro-level conversation on the forces moving today’s energy landscape.
They’ll cover the uncertainty in the market, where refined products fit in, why American infrastructure matters, and how the U.S. connects to the rest of the world.

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00:00 Sean Maher and Phillips 66
0:02:15 Diesel Cracks and Margin Outlook
0:05:12 Damage to Russian Refining
0:09:15 Demand Resilience and Turnarounds
0:13:10 AI Inside the Plants
0:19:37 Gasoline Versus Diesel Demand
0:24:36 El Nino and Distillate Inventories
0:26:19 Global Demand and Record Exports
0:30:16 Value of US Infrastructure
0:33:17 Cost of Building New Capacity
0:36:00 Global South Priced Out
0:38:58 Fractionation and Permian NGLs
0:43:55 Export Dock Capacity
0:46:03 Canadian Egress and WCS Diffs
0:50:17 Venezuela Versus Canadian Heavy
0:53:35 Energy Sector Rerating
1:02:10 Why Energy Education Matters
1:04:39 Bonnies Basketball Sign Off

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Diesel cracks just hit 102 dollars a barrel while the Treasury Secretary says he does not understand why oil spiked, which tells you everything about a products led market. Hormuz sits at day 176 with transits down 86 percent, Buc-ee's makes more on beaver nuggets than it does on diesel, and the SPR is now a strategic suggestion. Then there is AI flaring, the case that token burn on drifting bots is the same waste as burning gas you already paid to produce.

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0:00:00 Bessent doesn't understand the oil spike
0:02:34 Macro guys versus the physical traders
0:05:26 The 102 dollar crack spread
0:08:29 What it actually costs at the pump
0:10:25 A strategic suggestion, not a reserve
0:15:48 Hormuz, day 176
0:20:05 Who runs short on diesel this winter
0:22:55 Australia emptied the whole clip
0:29:55 Phillips 66, Elliott, and Streamline 66
0:33:27 Structural or cyclical
0:38:24 AI flaring and the token burn problem
0:46:52 Bots, drift, and Grok running all night
0:49:05 Amazon builds an island in Pennsylvania
0:53:44 ERCOT's December audit math
0:57:18 A weekend in Telluride
0:58:43 Remembering Frank Beard

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The sixty day clock on the Islamabad MOU ran out and nobody blinked, so Hormuz is still a coin flip and the diesel crack just printed 102 dollars, bigger than the price of crude itself. Kirk, Chuck, and Mark get into why nobody will build a refinery, how FedEx surcharges quietly lock in higher prices, and whether Meta and Entergy are about to hand Louisiana ratepayers a very long bill. Plus live questions from the Collide audience and a heartfelt sendoff for OJ Brigance.

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00:00 Flock of Seagulls and concert stories

04:31 Hormuz deadline passes with no deal

08:43 Blaming the IEA for tight refining

12:16 Diesel crack spread hits a record

18:02 Fuel surcharges and the inflation ratchet

24:21 Meta, Entergy, and ten new gas plants

29:06 The case for behind the meter power

31:42 Capacity offline and the water question

37:29 Why nobody is building a refinery

41:50 OPEC unwind and closing tributes

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EOG drilled two wells in the UAE that look suspiciously like the Eagle Ford, and Chuck has a theory about why. From there it's Amazon dropping a 7.6 gigawatt private gas plant on a West Texas ranch, Vivek Ramaswamy flipping the script on Ohio data centers, and a cattle rancher whose herd is spooked by the noise. Power demand is rewriting land use and politics at the same time, and we are here for it.

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00:00 Catching up
01:12 EOG's UAE wells
03:04 Chuck's theory on the rock
04:43 Who captures the value
10:07 The copycats are coming
11:52 Amazon's West Texas gas plant
14:14 Behind the meter is the grid now
17:45 A prediction about Ercot
19:38 Gas leaving the pipelines
21:13 Eminent domain and interconnects
24:40 Ferc and crossing state lines
26:13 Ramaswamy's Ohio data center plan
29:25 The rancher pushback
31:16 Costs, jobs, and tax abatements
35:14 Fermi America and the nuclear question
39:20 Wrapping up

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Trump wants the oil majors to hand their profits back to the public, and the crew has opinions. From taco trade whiplash in the Strait of Hormuz to Chevron reinventing itself as an infrastructure landlord through the Microsoft Kilby deal, this Collide roundtable unpacks windfall tax theater, BP fleeing a 78 percent North Sea tax bill, and the hidden demand destruction quietly showing up at Applebee's. Plus bling, beaver nuggets, and a heartfelt close.

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0:00:00 Van Halen reunion energy
0:00:53 Trump's tacos, tantrums, and the Strait
0:06:37 Windfall tax outrage and the margin math
0:14:49 Chevron's Kilby bet: oil company turns landlord
0:25:38 Refiners printing money and demand destruction at Applebee's
0:32:36 BP bails on the North Sea, eyes Houston
0:38:11 Darren Woods vs Brussels on methane rules
0:47:34 Bling, Bucky's, and beaver nugget economics
0:53:29 Landman cameo dreams and West Texas
0:56:22 Mark's reflection and a Collide thank-you

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Somebody spent 18 months modeling every well, pipe, and storage facility in the US gas system and came out calling for a shortage by 2028. Collide is not buying it, and the receipts go all the way back to Greenspan. Then it is deal season, with Magnolia grabbing Wildfire and Matador stacking up two more, all cash and no leverage. Plus SLB is quietly building a billion dollar data center business with Liberty, and somebody deserves a raise for selling that one.

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00:00 A rough start
00:43 The 2028 gas shortage call
04:46 Why the shortage never shows up
06:16 Lessons from 2001
10:04 The reserves nobody modeled
14:16 Permian gas and LNG contracts
17:49 Deal season: Magnolia and Matador
19:19 Why private equity is selling
23:28 What the deals are really worth
30:32 SLB and the Liberty alliance
36:36 Jones Act next week

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A listener named gopher27 fired back with Bastiat, Krugman, and Thomas Jefferson, and what followed might be the sharpest debate this show has had in two years. From whether Walmart really guts a small town to Middle East escalation rattling crude, a hurricane aiming at the refining corridor, and the messy fight over data centers, water, and farmland, the guys chase it all down.

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00:00 gopher27 vs Kirk: Walmart, corruption, and local dollars
07:28 Middle East escalation and the market shrug
13:10 Trump, a Beatles hoax, and a pipeline theory
15:27 Hurricane season meets the refining corridor
19:09 The Jones Act and record exports
23:05 Data centers vs farmland by the numbers
34:18 New York's moratorium and local pushback
36:39 Project Kilby, brackish water, and cooling
42:57 Almond milk math and signoff

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Slap a 20% toll on oil tankers, add drones that can sink a ship for less than the price of a pickup, and you get a Strait of Hormuz that keeps running out of off ramps. From there it spirals into why a 141 year old Ohio brick maker got hammered by its power bill, how data centers are quietly rewiring the grid and hollowing out small towns, and whether big oil earnings are about to spark another round of Washington theater.

read Old Man Coffee
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00:00 Concerts and catching up
04:12 Iran and the 20% tanker toll
09:08 Drones and asymmetric warfare
11:31 Houthis, Saudis, and the spillover
19:26 Midterms and the energy fallout
23:31 An Ohio brick maker gets crushed
24:40 PJM capacity charges and data centers
32:37 The Walmart effect on small towns
39:08 Q2 oil and gas earnings incoming
42:03 Remembering Lindsey Graham

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Four energy supply shocks landing on three continents at once, and somehow the oil traders got bored before the generals did. The crew works through strikes on Iran, Russia's diesel export ban, and how drones you could build in a garage are quietly rewriting global markets. Then a turn into Palantir CEO Alex Karp warning that the big AI models are out to eat their own customers, why the knowledge stuck in your employees' heads may be your best data, and what Collide is doing to capture it.

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00:00 Iran strikes and a ceasefire coming apart
03:39 Should the US be the world's enforcer
06:59 Seizing an oil island and shale's quiet flex
08:21 A Saving Private Ryan soccer detour
10:09 SPR draws and where oil sits
12:00 Russia's diesel ban and refineries under drones
15:25 Diesel, inflation, and the midterm math
18:43 Four supply shocks, three continents
19:51 Cheap drones rewriting warfare
21:20 Alex Karp on AI models eating their customers
28:28 Who's really king of IP theft
30:15 Tribal knowledge as the real data goldmine

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Gasoline creeps past four bucks and everyone reaches for the same villain, but the real story lives in the refining margin, not the gas station down the street. Arjun Murti of Veriten joins Mark Meyer for a holiday-weekend conversation on why big oil doesn't set your pump price, how refining flipped from the worst business in energy to the best, what California's shrinking refinery count really signals, and the Lee Raymond mindset that still shapes how smart operators ride the cycle.

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00:00 Welcome and Arjun's background
02:55 Remembering Lee Raymond
10:09 Trump, gas prices, and the price gouging myth
18:17 When energy policy actually got it right
24:09 How refining went from worst business to best
28:21 Barriers to entry and the safety tightrope
32:47 California's refining wall
36:01 The Jones Act and shipbuilding
38:09 Environmental policy vs climate crisis
43:22 Ethanol, RINs, and ag politics
46:35 Capitalism, shale, and the LNG boom
49:45 What comes next for the upstream
53:40 Oil prices and the Big Tech double standard
57:48 Adapting to 2026 and the road ahead

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Cushing is scraping tank bottoms, the SPR is back at 1980s lows, and somehow there is room to argue about soccer, the World Cup, and the audacity of parking your car at the Buc-ee's pump. Kirk and Mark break down the new Iran MOU and what the Strait of Hormuz standoff means for crude, why production keeps slipping while exports surge, and the recycled windfall profits tax playbook out of Warren and Whitehouse. It lands on the SpaceX IPO and the builder versus blame mindset worth chewing on.

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00:00 Cold open and weekend banter
02:35 Soccer, baseball, and the MLB labor cliff
05:38 The Iran MOU and the Hormuz standoff
12:14 Iran vs the Venezuela playbook
14:48 Cushing at tank bottoms
17:21 Physical vs financial and the SPR draw
22:15 Production, rigs, and capital discipline
25:55 Heavy crude and headlines vs reality
27:20 The Buc-ee's debate
32:19 Warren, Whitehouse, and the windfall profits tax
38:23 Attention spans and the state of discourse
41:31 The SpaceX IPO and the builder vs blame mindset
45:27 Rockets, methane, and ESG scores
48:18 US Open at Shinnecock and the wrap

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