BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions EP 108: Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker on the Bond Market, the Dollar, Gold & the Next Money Rotation

The rest of the world owes an estimated $110 trillion in US-dollar debt they can't print, and a rising dollar is what could force the defaults. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital and Keith Dicker of IceCap Asset Management lay out why a strong dollar and higher Treasury yields can coexist, what actually causes de-dollarization, and how to position before the next liquidity shock.

In this conversation you'll learn why Johnson reads October's sharp Treasury rally as a snapback after record-short positioning, why Dicker warns the bond market peak is behind us and bonds may be a brutal long-term hold, and why a falling dollar index is actually re-dollarization, not the collapse everyone expects. You'll see why both managers treat gold as portfolio insurance that gets sold first in a crisis, why energy could become the next crowded trade if the Middle East stays hot, and how a closer Fed-Treasury 'shotgun wedding' could reshape dollar policy as great-power competition heats up. You'll walk away with a concrete way to stress-test your exposure to bonds, equities, gold bullion, and cash against a range of outcomes.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:05 - October Treasury Rally And Dollar Strength

2:33 - Is The Bond Peak A Bear Trap?

4:36 - Why Higher US Rates Are Not Catastrophic

6:35 - Defining Inflation As Rising Prices

7:13 - Rising Yields And Dollar Strength Explained

9:08 - Global Government Debt Financing Crisis

11:07 - Will Sovereign Bond Markets Force Central Bank Intervention?

13:18 - Why Global Chaos Favors The United States

15:03 - The 110 Trillion Dollar Global Debt Problem

17:01 - What Could Actually Break The Dollar System

17:46 - Dollar Index As De-Dollarization Gauge

24:23 - Gold Bitcoin And Oil Underperforming Amid Chaos

27:05 - Iran Nuclear Risk And Market Signals

33:57 - Gold As Portfolio Insurance And Core Holding

37:29 - Energy As The Next Market Euphoria Trade

39:13 - Expecting A Tech And AI Correction

42:25 - Prepare For A Crash Instead Of Waiting

47:29 - Canada US Economic Ties And Energy Exports

52:45 - The Fed Treasury Shotgun Wedding Thesis

58:06 - Will America First Survive The Next Administration?

1:02:23 - Year End Outlook Be Prepared For Everything

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Brent Johnson / Santiago Capital: https://santiagocapital.com

→ Follow Brent on X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

→ Brent Johnson on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MilkshakesPod

→ TransAtlantic TakeAway (Brent Johnson & John Butler): https://www.transatlantictakeaway.com

→ Keith Dicker / IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com

→ Follow IceCap on X: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal

→ The Loonie Hour (Keith Dicker): https://www.looniehour.ca

⚡Previous Episode:

Brandon Quittem & Walker America: https://youtu.be/Lci53xJgAFw

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#BondMarket #BrentJohnson #KeithDicker #MentorSessions #BTCSessions #Bitcoin #SovereignDebt #TreasuryYields #USDollar #DollarMilkshake #DeDollarization #GlobalDebt #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarketCrash #MarketCorrection #EnergyStocks #SectorRotation #GoldInvesting #SantiagoCapital #IceCapAssetManagement #MarketVolatility

Mentor Sessions EP 107: Brandon Quittem & Walker America on the Convergence of Historic Cycles

History has only lined up like this twice in 300 years: 1776 and 1914. Walker America tracked 12 major historical cycles and found that in both eras nearly all of them turned at once. Today, 7 of 12 have turned, and the count is climbing.

Brandon Quittem and Walker break down where we really sit in the Fourth Turning, why every Fourth Turning in American history has ended in war, how the long term debt cycle points to a soft default on the dollar, and what the rise and fall of empires tells us about the years ahead. They also dig into generational amnesia, the strongman phase, the Gray Champion, and whether Bitcoin and AI make this time genuinely different.

Brandon makes the case for Bitcoin as a pressure release valve on a system under strain. They close with practical steps to prepare: managing debt, protecting savings, building community, and staying high agency through turbulent years.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:04 - Where Are We In The Fourth Turning?

1:38 - The Fourth Turning Explained

5:21 - Every Fourth Turning Has Ended In War

6:06 - The Economic And Tech Cold War

7:47 - Walker's Super Cycle Theory

11:17 - History Has Only Lined Up Like This Twice

12:11 - Ordinary Families Pay First

15:25 - Bitcoin And AI: Is This Time Different?

19:57 - The Long Term Debt Cycle And Soft Default

21:48 - Why This Time Is Not Different

25:04 - How Generations Repeat The Cycle

40:56 - Polybius And The Cycle Of Governments

46:07 - Generational Amnesia

50:06 - The Strongman Phase: El Salvador

51:33 - The Gray Champion And Republic Renewal

56:57 - What Could Disrupt The Cycles

57:40 - Bitcoin As A Pressure Release Valve

1:08:02 - Which Cycles Have Turned And What's Next

1:19:12 - How To Prepare: Wealth, Debt, Income

1:21:50 - Build Your Community

1:27:33 - The Astrological Cycles

🔗 Guests:

Brandon Quittem on X: https://x.com/Bquittem

Brandon's essays: https://brandonquittem.com

Walker America on X: https://x.com/WalkerAmerica

⚡Previous Episode:

Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry: https://youtu.be/JzY9L3vQdt4

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#FourthTurning #Bitcoin #SuperCycleTheory #NeilHowe #StraussHowe #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #HistoryRepeats #Cycles #Macro #DebtCycle #Dollar #AI #Anacyclosis #Polybius #Prepare #BrandonQuittem #WalkerAmerica

Mentor Sessions EP 106: Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry on Canada's Collapse, Healthcare, Housing, Taxes and Government Control

Canada used to be the envy of the world. Now people are asking whether they can survive here, let alone raise a family. Mira Metter and Mike Werry, the director and producer of the documentary Broken Country, spent months traveling the country to find out what broke and when. Their verdict a year later: not one thing they covered in the film has gotten better.

They break down why Canadian hospitals run at 100 to 120% occupancy when 80% is considered safe, why roughly 20% of Canadians have no family doctor, and how a country of 40 million ended up with fewer MRI machines than Pennsylvania. On housing, prices have climbed about 375% in 20 years, going from roughly 2.5 times annual income in the '90s to 9 times nationally and 19 times in Toronto and Vancouver.

We also get into rising taxes, immigration policy, censorship bills and cameras turned off in Parliament, the federal government's own 2040 social mobility scenario, Alberta and Quebec separatism, and why this is a warning for Americans watching the same policies at home.

Chapters:

0:00 - Intro

0:52 - Canada From Envy Of The World To Survival

3:33 - What's Wrong With Canadian Healthcare

4:00 - Hospitals Running At 100-120% Capacity

5:29 - 20% Of Canadians Have No Family Doctor

6:42 - Fewer MRI Machines Than Pennsylvania

7:20 - Hospitals Funded On Last Year's Patients

10:03 - Healthcare Worked Until The Early 90s Cuts

12:37 - Canada's Hidden Two-Tier Healthcare

15:43 - Rural ER Closures Costing Lives

20:31 - Can Canadian Healthcare Be Saved

24:08 - ER Doctors Abused And Burned Out

26:12 - Addiction, Homelessness And Housing

27:03 - Housing From 2.5x To 19x Income

27:55 - Housing Up 375% In 20 Years

29:03 - How Housing Got Dumped On Cities

31:01 - Rent Eating Half Your Paycheck

33:49 - The Five-Year Mortgage Renewal Shock

35:12 - The Money Printing Behind It All

43:20 - Can Housing Ever Correct Without Breaking The Banks

48:01 - How Canada's Government Failed

49:36 - Safe Supply And The Opioid Crisis

52:30 - Censorship Bills And Cameras Off In Parliament

55:43 - Government-Subsidized Media

58:31 - Bill C-22 And Digital Privacy

1:01:38 - The 2015 Immigration Shift

1:06:54 - Youth Unemployment And Temporary Foreign Workers

1:09:55 - Entrepreneurs Leaving For The US

1:11:31 - Wasted Resources: Ring Of Fire, LNG, Hydro

1:17:10 - Walking Away From The US Trade Deal

1:19:46 - Does It Get Worse Before It Gets Better

1:20:52 - The Government's Own 2040 Warning

1:22:39 - Alberta And Quebec Separatism

1:25:52 - A Wake-Up Call For Americans

1:26:50 - Not One Thing Has Gotten Better

1:28:45 - Where To Watch Broken Country

⚡ Watch Broken Country: https://brokencountry.com

⚡Previous Episode:

Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin: https://youtu.be/GYyHcPEaS3Y

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#BrokenCountry #Canada #CanadaCollapse #CanadaHousingCrisis #CanadianEconomy #CanadaHealthcare #CostOfLiving #ImmigrationPolicy #GovernmentOverreach #FailedState #AlbertaSeparation #MiraMetter #MikeWerry #MentorSessions #BTCSessions

Mentor Sessions EP 105 | Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin on GrapheneOS, White Noise, Local AI, KYC-Free Bitcoin and Privacy Guerrilla Warfare

If you click next, next, next on mainstream tech, your privacy is fucked. But Max Hillebrand (White Noise, Marmot protocol, author of The Praxeology of Privacy) and Ben Perrin (BTC Sessions, Sovereign Sessions) argue the tools to route around surveillance have never been better. With an old laptop, an AI agent, Nostr and Zapstore, you can now build and ship a freedom tech app without knowing how to code.

From there, they walk through a practical privacy stack: Pixel phones running GrapheneOS (8, 9 or 10, not the 11), Linux laptops, password managers, paying privately with gift cards and prepaid cards, Wasabi Wallet and peer-to-peer Bitcoin, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise for encrypted messaging, local AI and trusted execution environments, self-hosting on an old laptop, quantum risk to encryption, and why privacy matters for honest price discovery.

Timestamps:

0:00 Cold Open

0:41 Privacy Guerrilla Warfare: Can We Route Around the Grid?

2:37 Build an Anonymous App Without Coding

6:19 Why Your Data Is So Valuable

7:38 Google Maps and Your Location Data

9:40 GrapheneOS, Organic Maps and Linux

10:53 Is the Privacy UX Gap Closing?

15:23 Moving the Cultural Needle on Privacy

20:12 Starting a Private Device Setup

24:46 OS-Level ID Verification

25:41 Best Pixels for GrapheneOS: 8, 9, 10, Not the 11

27:05 Linux Laptops and Operating Systems

28:54 Face Scan vs PIN

30:27 Passwords and Password Managers

32:19 Paying Privately With Gift Cards and Prepaid Cards

35:07 Spending Bitcoin Through Friends

37:13 Wasabi Wallet and On-Chain Privacy

38:21 Getting Bitcoin Without KYC

41:38 Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise

48:00 How the Marmot Protocol Works

55:52 How Disappearing Messages Work

57:57 Private AI and Running Local Models

1:01:29 Talking to Your AI Agents Through White Noise

1:07:37 Private Cloud AI With Maple and PPQ

1:08:43 Trusted Execution Environments: Cypherpunk Magic

1:14:35 Self-Host Your Data on an Old Laptop

1:17:14 Is Quantum a Threat to Encryption and Bitcoin?

1:25:09 The Economic Case for Privacy

1:29:00 Ben's Blond Streak Disguise

1:29:55 Where to Find Max, Ben and White Noise

Tools mentioned: GrapheneOS, Organic Maps, Debian, Qubes OS, Pop!_OS, Omarchy, Framework, Apple Lockdown Mode, KeePass, Silent.Link, Bitrefill, Coincards, Garmin Pay, Wasabi Wallet, Lightning, Hodl Hodl, Bisq, RoboSats, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Obscura VPN, Amber, White Noise, Marmot protocol, MLS, Nostr, Nostr VPN, FIPS, Routstr, Cashu, Fedimint, Bionic, Maple, PPQ.ai

Max Hillebrand (Nostr only): https://towardsliberty.com

White Noise: https://whitenoise.chat

Sovereign Sessions (tutorials): https://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions

⚡Previous Episode:

Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon: https://youtu.be/djc-F6TPfos

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#BitcoinPrivacy #GrapheneOS #Nostr #MaxHillebrand #BenPerrin #WhiteNoise #WasabiWallet #LocalAI #SelfHosting #FreedomTech #Cypherpunk #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Privacy #Zapstore

Mentor Sessions EP 104 | Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon on the petrodollar, who runs the world, the AI bubble, dollar collapse, gold vs Bitcoin, stablecoin bank runs and frozen bank accounts.

Two wars, a quiet Russian diesel deal, and a $2 trillion AI build-out that one of these guests calls the greatest bubble in history. James Rickards and Simon Dixon sit down to map who is actually calling the shots in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, and what it means for the dollar, gold, and your Bitcoin.

Rickards war gamed finance as a weapon for the Pentagon, advised the CIA on financial threats, and was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management when the Fed stepped in. In this conversation you'll learn why he argues the debasement trade is nonsense and the dollar is getting stronger, why China's yuan can't become a reserve currency, and why he believes an unregulated stablecoin bank run could trigger a panic in the Treasury market.

Simon Dixon pushes back with the view that war is the product, that the petrodollar is being quietly renegotiated as China becomes Saudi Arabia's main oil buyer, and that both gold and Bitcoin matter in the programmable control grid he sees coming. You'll also hear a sharp breakdown of the AI bubble, why superintelligence won't be achieved, and the latest supply-chain attacks on hardware wallets.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:33 - Who Is Calling The Shots In These Wars

2:33 - Who Really Controls Ukraine's Leadership

3:38 - Why Iran Has No Exit Strategy

6:46 - US-Russia Deal That Could End Two Wars

9:25 - Why Only China Russia And US Matter

12:16 - Simon Dixon: War Serves The Power Structure

15:13 - Midterms Weapons Shortages And Trump Agenda

18:46 - Seventy Years Of Petrodollar Monetary History

23:47 - Bigger Picture Above Trump And World Orders

26:19 - Why The Debasement Trade Is Nonsense

29:05 - China's Gold Reserves And Yuan Limitations

32:08 - Using Inflation To Solve The Debt Problem

33:09 - Petrodollar Shift From Saudi Arabia To China

49:26 - Two Trillion Dollar AI Infrastructure Bubble

55:42 - Why Superintelligence Cannot Be Achieved

56:11 - Ice-Nine Freezing Accounts And Redemptions

1:00:06 - Rickards Bitcoin Casino Chip Metaphor Explained

1:01:08 - Stablecoin Bank Run Risks On The Horizon

1:03:55 - Simon Dixon Stablecoins Versus Bank Deposits

1:26:48 - Hardware Wallet Attacks Targeting Self Custody

1:31:49 - Simon Dixon New Book Game Of Money

🔗 Links & Resources:

James Rickards newsletter - https://rickardswarning.com

Simon Dixon on X - https://x.com/SimonDixonTwit

This one is for the people trying to make sense of the whole board at once, not just the headlines. If that's you, join us live for the next Mentor Session and drop your take on war-is-the-product vs the-dollar-is-fine in the comments. We read them.

⚡Previous Episode:

Michael Howell: https://youtu.be/Tzyifqs-Bg0

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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👉 Visit btcmentor.io

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Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble & When Bitcoin Rallies

Global liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what's moving underneath the surface.

In this episode you'll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a "liquidity sponge," how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You'll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is "basically Japan ten years later" buying gold for 23 straight months. You'll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?

2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover

3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle

4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained

5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds

7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers

8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit

12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management

13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed

14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk

15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries

16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves

17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is

20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line

24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher

25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?

26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising

29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak

33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework

34:17 - Howell's Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case

35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing

40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts

42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread

43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System

45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together

47:18 - Japan, The Yen Carry Trade And Weaker Yen

49:30 - How Japan Devalued Its Debt Successfully

51:39 - China Is Japan Ten Years Later

53:07 - China Printing Money And Buying Gold To Devalue

56:16 - Could The US Engineer A Domestic Devaluation?

58:25 - How Bitcoin Reacts To Chinese And Treasury Liquidity

1:02:04 - Final Thoughts On AI, Private Credit And Risk

Michael Howell runs Global Liquidity Indexes and publishes the Capital Wars Substack, where he tracks global liquidity data and the indicators referenced throughout this conversation.

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Michael Howell on X: https://x.com/crossbordercap

→ Michael Howell on Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

→ GL Indexes: https://www.glindexes.com/

⚡Previous Episode:Rational Root: https://youtu.be/ZkpoEFOQ_cM

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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#Bitcoin #GlobalLiquidity #EverythingBubble #MichaelHowell #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinMacro #TreasuryQE #DebtCycle #CapitalWars #BondMarket #YieldCurve #LiquiditySponge #Liquidity

Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.

The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.

You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.

This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind

1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout

3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle

5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle

8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained

9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown

11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns

13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?

18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up

20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test

22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value

25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic

28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break

31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?

33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?

39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms

45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More

52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle

55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now

1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot

→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

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👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction

Mentor Sessions Ep 101: Joe Carlasare, Dr. Jeff Ross, and American HODL break down why Bitcoin at $85K is poised to break $100K, the dead four year cycle, and AI's economic impact in 2026.

Nation states now hold more Bitcoin on a percentage basis than individuals do, and Joe Carlasare and Jeff argue that single fact rewrites the entire bull case heading into 2026. With Bitcoin sitting around $85,000, this conversation makes the case that $100K is the starting bell, not the ceiling.

You'll learn why Carlasare calls the recent sell-off a self-fulfilling prophecy, why both guests believe the traditional four year cycle is finally dead, and how the walk from $100K to $1 million could happen faster and easier than most holders expect. You'll hear why long-term hodlers above $100K are already gone, why the Cold Card capitulation felt like the real bottom, and how liquidity, manufacturing, and speculation (the "three burners") tell the macro story right now. You'll also get a frank breakdown of AI's economic impact, the fight over compute governance, the IP and legal battles facing OpenAI and Anthropic, and the FinCEN rules on self-hosted wallets that were just rescinded.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:40 - Calling The Bottom At $58K And Where Bitcoin Sits Now

1:17 - P(Doom) Zero, P(BTC) 100

2:34 - Nation States Own More Bitcoin Than Individuals

3:23 - The Entire Sell-Off Was A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

4:36 - Why Flipping Green In 2026 Breaks The Four Year Cycle

6:44 - The Cold Card Capitulation And The Double Bottom

8:19 - Covid Distorted Every Economic Cycle

11:03 - Bitcoin Trades On Macro Now, Not The Cycle

13:14 - Junk Bonds At 14% And Broken Correlations

14:25 - Only 2.5% From A Green Year, 20% From $100K

15:30 - Why $100K Unlocks $200K, $300K, $400K

16:17 - The Walk From $100K To $1 Million

24:01 - The Michael Saylor Prophecy And Follow-On Buyers

27:31 - James Check: There's No Narrative, Just Demand

30:08 - Strategy Survived The Stress Test

34:26 - Is The Equity Market Over Its Skis?

38:19 - Creative Destruction And The AI Economy

40:35 - HODL On The AI Red Capture And Robo-God Labs

45:25 - Effective Altruism, The Vatican, And Compute Governance

47:33 - The Coming AI False Flag

52:47 - Can You Make AI Labs Legally Liable?

55:41 - Do Local Models Beat The Frontier?

1:00:41 - Will Wall Street Shred OpenAI And Anthropic?

1:01:02 - China, Manufacturing, And The IP Problem

1:03:13 - Is AI Output Fair Use? Courts Say No

1:06:35 - FinCEN's Self-Custody Rules Rescinded

1:07:19 - The Three Burners: Liquidity, Manufacturing, Speculation

1:13:48 - What FinCEN Actually Changed

1:15:15 - Joe's New Book And Closing Thoughts

This episode references the Cold Card incident, Michael Howell's liquidity work, Lyn Alden's fiscal framing, and Joe Carlasare's new book. Hardware wallet and self-custody tools discussed in the sponsor segments include Trezor and Casa multisig.

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Follow Joe Carlasare on X: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare

→ Follow Jeff Ross on X: https://x.com/FormerDrJeff

→ Follow HODL on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

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#Bitcoin #BTCSessions #JoeCarlasare #JeffRoss #AmericanHODL #BTC #BitcoinMacro #FourYearCycle #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AIandBitcoin #BitcoinTo1Million #NationStateBitcoin #SelfCustody #FinCEN

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026

Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.

You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.

This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market

1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion

1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation

2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts

3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes

4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%

5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition

6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?

7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?

8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior

9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges

10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?

11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms

13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns

15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like

15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO

18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special

19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction

21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets

23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin

24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget

28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom

30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles

31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money

32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?

33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K

40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense

44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money

53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining

59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right

1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com

→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode

Mentor Sessions Ep 099: Dave Collum on the AI bubble bursting, the bond market at 6%, boomer asset liquidation, and why gold and Bitcoin win as valuations regress.

The AI bubble has the life expectancy of a soufflé, the 30-year Treasury is being drawn to 6% like a magnet, and Dave Collum thinks the whole thing reprices within a year. This is the macro conversation most people are too polite to have.

In this episode, chemistry professor and macro commentator Dave Collum breaks down why the decades-long credit cycle is over, why the inverse correlation between gold and interest rates is about to break, and why boomer asset liquidation guarantees a repricing no dip-buyer can stop. You'll learn why he calls Jensen Huang's share buybacks a bell-ringing top, why he puts the AI capex build-out on a one-year clock, and why he thinks a rare double bear market in bonds AND equities is teeing up — the setup where 60/40 offers no protection. You'll also hear his contrarian take that AI will make the world worse without destroying civilization, plus his read on Warsh, the Fed, and why gold and Bitcoiners could be the ones left standing.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:50 - Gold Silver Recent Price Action

1:27 - End of the Long Credit Cycle

1:49 - Central Bankers Driving Rates to Zero

4:50 - Treasury Rates Pulled Toward Six Percent

6:32 - Seven Percent Mortgages Housing Trap

9:46 - Kevin Warsh Rate Hikes and Collapse

11:55 - Economy Needs Real Assets Not Data Centers

12:48 - Jensen Huang Nvidia Buyback Signal

14:17 - AI Threat to Civilization Examined

17:46 - Sneaky Behaviors Observed in AI

20:48 - Bitcoin Proof of Work Constrains AI

25:59 - Nuclear Risks Middle East Conflict

27:47 - Putin Iran Restraint in Geopolitics

40:52 - Israel Palestine Historical Context

45:11 - Iran Nuclear Strike Questions Raised

50:40 - Yen Carry Trade Stability Analysis

59:06 - Boomers Driving Boom and Bust

59:33 - Median Boomer Retirement Savings Shortfall

1:03:19 - Boomer Wealth Transfer Needs Repricing

1:08:08 - Lindsay Clancy Case Maternal Tracking

2:01:32 - System Collapse Worse Than Historical

2:03:16 - AI Bubble in Fifteenth Inning

2:04:31 - Market Regression Eighty Five Percent Drop

2:36:45 - Nasdaq Rollover Sudden Bid Support

2:39:15 - Gamma Squeeze Pushing Markets Higher

2:42:07 - Potential Correction Impact on Saylor

🔗 Links & Resources

→ Dave Collum on X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum

If you want the macro conversations the rest of the space won't touch, this is the show. Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro interviews, and drop your take on Collum's one-year AI clock in the comments.

⚡Previous Episode:

Jack Mallers: https://youtu.be/LpwGHzUTQ7A

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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

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#MacroEconomics #BondMarket #BTCSessions #DaveCollum #AIbubble #EconomicBubble #TreasuryYields #CreditCycle #BoomerWealth #GeopoliticalRisk #GoldAndBitcoin #MarketCrash #6040Portfolio #SystemicCollapse

Mentor Sessions Ep 098: Jack Mallers explains monetizing chaos, dollar debasement, the ColdCard incident, El Salvador and why Bitcoin is the most American technology.

Jack Mallers argues the entire fiat system forces everyone into speculation whether they know it or not — and Bitcoin is how you take the other side of the chaos. In a wide-ranging sit-down, the Strike CEO breaks down monetizing chaos, the $40 trillion debt bill nobody wants to foot, and why he's never been more bullish.

You'll hear why Jack calls debt a form of "time travel" that already spent your future, how the dollar's world-reserve status structurally forces deficits, and why a severe debasement against gold and Bitcoin may be the only mathematical exit for the US balance sheet. You'll get his blunt read on the ColdCard incident and why "open source doesn't mean secure" in the age of AI — the most incentivized person to understand that code base was the attacker. You'll also learn why he thinks 2026 was never a real bull run, why prediction markets are just regulatory arbitrage on sports betting, and what El Salvador got right (and wrong) five years in.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:48 - Why Jack Is Bullish on Bitcoin

1:47 - Monetizing Chaos by Shorting Fiat

2:04 - Debt as Time Travel and Future Bills

4:43 - Why Public Adoption of Bitcoin Lags

5:17 - Strike Growing Despite Bear Market

6:21 - Why 2026 Was Not a Real Bull Run

7:52 - Why Younger Generations Resist Bitcoin

8:44 - Bitcoin as a Massive Wealth Transfer

11:26 - Savings Culture Versus Gambling Culture

13:07 - Gambling Ads, OnlyFans, and Robot Jobs

17:58 - Hunger for Savings Culture Emerging

18:10 - Family, Low Time Preference, and Bitcoin

21:43 - Robinhood, Meme Coins, and Marginal Speculators

24:23 - Prediction Markets as Sports Betting Arbitrage

26:52 - Why Self-Custody Efforts Often Fail

28:27 - El Salvador Bitcoin Adoption Wins and Losses

34:07 - Why Nations Avoid Copying El Salvador

38:06 - Bitcoin as America's Most American Tech

40:17 - Dollar's Structural Deficit Trap Explained

41:12 - China's Gold and Bitcoin Dollar Debasement

45:49 - Why Jack Glad Clarity Act Failed

47:53 - Fix: End World Reserve Currency Status

49:18 - Bitcoin Not Medium of Exchange First

55:20 - AI Threat to Open Source Security

57:33 - Open Source Alone Does Not Secure

1:02:09 - Just Use Bitcoin Core for Security

1:08:37 - Jack on Leaving Twenty One and Authenticity

1:14:47 - What Strike Is Building Now

1:20:04 - Closing Message to Bitcoiners

Guest: Jack Mallers of Strike

🔗 Links & Resources:

- Jack Mallers on X: https://x.com/jackmallers

- Strike: https://strike.me

⚡Previous Episode:

Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

If this conversation gave you a new way to see the macro picture, join the regulars — subscribe for more long-form Bitcoin interviews and reply with your take on "monetizing chaos." Catch the previous episode with James Lavish and Doomberg linked in the cards.

#JackMallers #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Strike #BTC #BitcoinMacro #DollarDebasement #MonetizingChaos #SoundMoney #BitcoinBearMarket #WorldReserveCurrency #PredictionMarkets #ElSalvadorBitcoin #Coldcard #OpenSourceSecurity #BitcoinCore #LightningNetwork #SelfCustody #TwentyOne

Mentor Sessions Ep 097: James Lavish and Doomberg break down the 2026 bond market crisis, Europe's diesel shortage, private credit risk, and Bitcoin as a macro asset.

Bond yields near 20-year highs, Europe staring down a diesel shortage, and private credit quietly marking its own books — the plumbing of the global financial system is under real strain, and this conversation maps exactly where the pressure is building.

James Lavish and Doomberg join BTC Sessions to connect the dots between the bond market, energy, geopolitics, and Bitcoin. You'll learn why the 10-year yield sitting at ~5% signals a structural regime change rather than a passing inflation scare, how private equity and insurance companies are stuffed with self-marked paper that echoes 2007-2008, and why Doomberg calls Europe's diesel situation the "Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse." You'll see the case that energy — not currency — is the base layer of every market, why nations are now selling Treasuries to buy fuel, and where Bitcoin fits as the "hot ball of money" hunting for the next asymmetric bet. Both guests also share the disciplined, rules-based approach they use to allocate across gold, cash, and Bitcoin without trying to time the market.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:43 - Bond yields near 20-year highs and global yield melt-up

0:57 - Why the 10-year at 5% is a new regime, not a blip

3:28 - The death of the 60/40 portfolio

5:38 - Doomberg on Grant Williams, Luke Gromen and fiscal dominance

9:03 - Hyperscaler debt crowding out long-dated paper

10:16 - Echoes of 2007-2008 in private equity and insurance

12:19 - The Treasury default nobody will call a default

16:38 - How private credit marks its own book

20:16 - Every market has its own purpose and structure

25:26 - Trezor Safe 7 self-custody segment

29:55 - Money is a promissory note on energy

30:16 - Private credit, contagion and the mark-to-market catalyst

33:16 - Could real estate seize up the credit chain?

37:01 - Diesel, WTI and the Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse

42:43 - Why Europe is uniquely exposed

44:08 - Germany's nuclear mistake and the EU's fragility

47:47 - Why Germany may leave the EU

49:04 - Ukraine, Russia and the energy war

51:38 - Why bonds aren't seeing a flight to safety

53:23 - Bitcoin as the asset chucked overboard, now bid

57:03 - Doomberg's rules-based gold, cash and Bitcoin allocation

59:40 - Canada, Greenland, Carney and Trump theater

1:05:44 - Where to follow James Lavish

🔗 Links & Resources:

• James Lavish on X: https://x.com/jameslavish

• The Informationist newsletter:https://www.jameslavish.com/

• Doomberg on Substack: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/

⚡Previous Episode:

Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

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👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #JamesLavish #Doomberg #BondMarket #FiscalDominance #EnergyCrisis #PrivateCredit #DieselShortage #SoundMoney #InterestRates #Treasuries #MoneyPrinting #Europe

Mentor Sessions Ep 096: Zack Shapiro explains AI existential risk, AI regulation, the Clarity Act, Samurai Wallet, and open source AI policy for Bitcoin.

The Clarity Act just failed on the Senate floor, and the fight over whether writing Bitcoin code can be treated as a crime is now heading to 70-year-old federal judges. Zack Shapiro breaks down what that means for self-custody, open source software, and the Samurai Wallet developers still behind bars.

In this conversation you'll learn why Zack separates AI existential risk (recursive self-improvement, the orthogonality thesis, instrumental convergence) from the ordinary risks of AI — job displacement, regulatory capture by frontier labs, and cyber attacks like the Cold Card hack. You'll see why he thinks open source AI is not the existential threat, why the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) matters more than most Bitcoiners realize, and how the 'two clocks' of AI capability vs enterprise adoption will define the next decade. You'll also get the legal reality behind white hat recovery of hacked Bitcoin, why the liquid hacker is in a bad spot, and what happened when the Clarity Act died on the vine.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:51 - Amodei, Musk and Altman urge AI slowdown

1:38 - Ordinary risks versus existential AI threats

2:26 - Politics warping the AI safety debate

3:20 - Bostrom, AGI and intelligence explosion risks

5:01 - Orthogonality thesis and instrumental convergence

5:59 - Hugging Face attack shows AI covering tracks

6:58 - No easy policy fixes for AI risks

8:08 - Can't stop AI progress or open source China

9:32 - Separating x-risk concerns from anti-AI populism

12:22 - Regulatory capture and Anthropic IPO timing

14:21 - Keeping open source AI legal and available

16:39 - Trezor self-custody sponsor read

17:43 - One shot parallel between Bitcoin and AI

19:37 - Where real AI productivity gains appear

20:47 - Two Clocks: capability versus enterprise adoption

24:22 - Is AI coming for your job?

25:28 - Electrification analogy and 30-year lag

28:34 - Jevons Paradox and future of work

30:42 - White hat recovery of Cold Card hacked funds

34:02 - Legal precedent for white hat bounties

36:56 - Why the Liquid hacker faces trouble

38:55 - What's actually in the Clarity Act

43:46 - Money transmitter law and the Samurai case

45:20 - Tornado Cash, FinCEN and frying pan argument

47:31 - Why this could ban using Bitcoin

49:33 - BRCA criminal protections and court battles

53:42 - Clarity Act fails to pass what happened

55:24 - Senator Lummis stood on principle

56:50 - Where to follow Zack Shapiro

Guest: Zack Shapiro — lawyer and AI-native law firm builder covering crypto policy, AI regulation, and Bitcoin legal defense.

🔗 Links & Resources:

- Zack Shapiro on X: https://x.com/zackbshapiro

⚡Previous Episode:

Bob Burnett and Nacho Pauls of Ocean: https://youtu.be/1-lvwj4DcJs

Brent Johnson: https://youtu.be/UoIwpsOB9O0

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #ZackShapiro #ClarityAct #BRCA #SelfCustody #SamuraiWallet #ColdCardHack #AIRegulation #AISafety #OpenSourceAI #Superintelligence #BitcoinPolicy #BlackRock

Mentor Sessions Ep 095: Bob Burnett and Nacho Pauls of Ocean discuss Bitcoin mining decentralization, the BIP-110 chain split, hash rate flight, and Bitcoin Knots.

Bitcoin's first real hard fork just tested mining decentralization for real — and Ocean's hash rate dropped from roughly 40 exahash to 23 before clawing back. Bob Burnett (Barefoot Mining, Ocean chairman) and Nacho Pauls break down what actually happened when the chain split, why rented hash fled while owned hash stayed, and what the loss of Bitcoin Knots means for client diversity going forward.

You'll learn why the "template centralization" problem is still the core issue even after BIP-110 was resolved, how a non-KYC pool kept paying miners through the chaos, and why Bob argues Bitcoin needs 3 to 5 competing clients — drawing a direct parallel to how the PC industry standardized USB, PCI, and Bluetooth. You'll also get the honest story behind Ocean's high-profile team departures, who's stepping into the CTO and chairman roles, and why Bob calls the whole episode a "distraction" the community ultimately settled the right way.

Whether you run a node, stack sats, or care about who really controls Bitcoin's hash, this is a candid, insider conversation about mining, consensus, and what comes next.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:41 - Hard Fork Fallout and What Happened

1:12 - Have Bob's Decentralization Views Shifted?

1:54 - Datum Templates and Decentralization Fix

3:25 - Ocean Hash Rate Drops From 40 to 23 EH

3:43 - Overcoming Defeatism Among Motivated Miners

4:11 - Nacho Explains Why Miners Left Then Returned

4:57 - Only Pool That Let Miners Choose

6:37 - Owned Hash Rate Versus Rented Hash

8:34 - True Cost of 15 EH Rented Hash

9:38 - Non-KYC Mining and Unknown Customers

10:50 - Why Large Miners Avoid Switching to Ocean

13:20 - Ocean's Jump to 30 EH and Path to 100

17:23 - Sponsor Break

18:50 - Team Drama and Key Departures

20:17 - Amicable Split With Departing Founders

22:01 - Jason Hughes Becomes CTO and Board Changes

23:28 - BIP-110 Debate and Your Hash Your Choice

33:15 - Bob's Personal Take on Departures

34:13 - Mistake of Treating BIP-110 as Crisis

38:39 - Community Consensus and Bitcoin's Strength

43:57 - Losing Bitcoin Knots Client Option

45:53 - Short Medium and Long Term Client Strategy

46:48 - Plea to Core on Extended Version Support

47:27 - Why Bitcoin Needs Three to Five Clients

48:32 - PC Industry Lessons on USB and PCI Standards

51:16 - Where to Follow Nacho and Bob

Guests mentioned: Bob Burnett (Barefoot Mining, Ocean), Nacho Pauls (Ocean), plus discussion of Luke DeWolf, Jason Hughes, and the Bitcoin Boomers.

🔗 Links & Resources:

• Ocean: https://ocean.xyz

• Bob Burnett on X: https://x.com/Boomer_BTC

• Nacho Pauls on X: https://x.com/NachoPauls

• BTC Sessions: https://btcsessions.ca

⚡Previous Episode:

Brent Johnson: https://youtu.be/UoIwpsOB9O0

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN

https://qrco.de/bfiDC6

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #BitcoinMining #MiningDecentralization #BIP110 #BitcoinKnots #OceanPool #HashRate #BobBurnett #NachoPauls #HardFork #BarefootMining #ProofOfWork #SelfCustody

Mentor Sessions Ep 094: Brent Johnson explains the 2026 dollar outlook, the collapse of the rules-based order, Bessent's Treasury moves, and how AI and stablecoins entrench the US dollar.

The rules-based order that kept markets stable for 80 years is dying - and Brent Johnson explains what replaces it, why the US dollar gets STRONGER not weaker, and how AI and stablecoins entrench American power for decades.

Brent Johnson (Santiago Capital, Dollar Milkshake Theory) sits down for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest structural shift in markets since World War Two. You'll learn why he thinks the American Republic could give way to an American empire, why Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks matter more than the headlines suggest, and how passive management can turn a bond wobble into a full crisis. You'll see why he's concentrated in North America and the Western Hemisphere, why he calls the US-China relationship a "divorce," and why he refuses to bet against the US Treasury even as others call for the dollar's death. He also breaks down why AI is now a matter of national security, why stablecoins are structurally bullish for the dollar, and where Bitcoin fits in the emerging digital-asset order.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:17 - Iran War and Dollar System Resilience

4:10 - Iran Conflict Pressure on Treasury Yields

5:41 - Rising Yields Create Global Collateral Strain

8:25 - Bessent Long-End Buybacks Explained

10:20 - Mike Green on Passive Bond Risks

11:48 - Rules-Based Order Has Ended

13:39 - Shift to America First Proactive Policy

17:31 - Signs the Rules-Based Order Is Dying

18:27 - Vance and Rubio Munich Security Speeches

21:41 - China Also Wants Strategic Divorce

23:26 - Multipolar World or US Remains Dominant

24:44 - American Republic Falls Into Empire

27:00 - Republic Versus Empire and Authoritarianism

31:07 - Positioning Portfolios Amid Geopolitical Chaos

33:28 - Building Fortress North America Strategy

35:19 - Canada US Relationship Realities

39:41 - Energy Trade War Leverage Analysis

44:16 - Bessent Druckenmiller Soros Trading Lineage

48:51 - Market Outlook Violently Sideways Year End

53:01 - AI Now National Security Priority

57:02 - AI Short Term Employment Risks

58:06 - Stablecoins Strengthen US Dollar Position

59:31 - Bitcoin Role Alongside Stablecoins

1:01:57 - Global Institutions Must Adapt Next

Brent Johnson's written research and weekly show "Milkshakes, Markets and Madness" are at Santiago Capital - links below.

🔗 Links & Resources:

• Santiago Capital research: https://research.santiagocapital.com/

• Brent Johnson on X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

⚡Previous Episode:

Luke Gromen & Lyn Alden: https://youtu.be/xoAuuJyBg6E

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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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Mentor Sessions 093: Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden explain the 2026 global bond market crisis, private credit risk, yield curve control, and Bitcoin and gold as safe havens.

The global bond market is bleeding out in slow motion, and the real danger is buried in private credit that insurance companies can't sell without going insolvent. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden break down why the long end of the Treasury market is grinding higher, why Scott Bessent intervened before any visible crisis, and what happens when trillion-dollar balance sheets finally hit the sell button.

You'll learn why China is the one nation conspicuously absent from the sovereign debt rout, how AI-driven deflation is reshaping Chinese manufacturing, and why Gromen argues the U.S. now faces a "Weimar gold reparations" problem with true interest expense at 105% of receipts. You'll see why both guests believe rate hikes are no longer even a usable tool under fiscal dominance, how a Blackrock "one phone call" scenario could freeze $5 trillion in a crisis, and where Bitcoin and gold fit as bearer assets when markets get locked down. Alden makes the case for holding scarce assets and extra cash through the air pockets; Gromen explains why he trimmed Bitcoin and exactly when he'd aggressively buy it back.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:12 - Treasury Event or Broader Sovereign Debt Crisis

1:34 - Why China Avoids the Global Bond Rout

2:00 - Hyperscalers Emerge as New Bond Vigilantes

3:41 - Path Leading to Yield Curve Control

4:15 - Why Chinese 10-Year Yields Hit Global Lows

6:00 - AI Driving Deflation in Chinese Manufacturing

10:17 - Orderly Bond Market Grind vs Sensationalized Crash

13:43 - The Dog That Didn't Bark in Bessent's Move

14:38 - Silent Crisis Brewing in Private Credit

15:38 - Insurance Insolvency Risk Triggers Treasury Sales

19:01 - Liquidity Versus Solvency in Private Funds

27:44 - Will Warsh Raise Rates This Cycle

29:43 - True Interest Expense Hits 105% of Receipts

33:43 - Rate Hikes Fail Against Fiscal Dominance

35:50 - Crack Spreads, Diesel and Physical Bottlenecks

37:37 - Wall Street Awakening to Fiscal Dominance

40:12 - BlackRock's $5 Trillion Lockdown Scenario

41:00 - Past the Point of No Return for Markets

45:47 - Non-Linear Reset Versus Slow Economic Spiral

50:19 - Physical Constraints in Beef and Refineries

54:05 - Gormen Adds Back Bitcoin After Selling

57:07 - Lyn Alden on Bitcoin and Gold Outlook

🔗 Links & Resources:

Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com/

Luke Gromen: https://fftt-llc.com/

⚡Previous Episodes:

Michael Sullivan: https://youtu.be/wp5IYzcThUo

Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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Mentor Sessions 092: Michael Sullivan explains Bitcoin sentiment analysis, emotional cohort signals, OG optimism, narrative shifts, and why the data may point to a bottom.

Bitcoin sentiment just did something it rarely does after a 22% rip: it stayed calm. No euphoria, no desire spike, no retail flooding back — and that gap between the price move and the emotional data is where the real signal lives.

Michael Sullivan — an engineer and fiction writer turned Bitcoin sentiment analyst — breaks down how he tracks 14 distinct emotions across cohorts of Bitcoiners, from OGs and technologists to MSTR treasury speculators. You'll learn why he cohorts the crowd instead of scraping social media, why the Fear & Greed Index misses all the nuance, and why he reads OG optimism as one of the most reliable early signals that positive things are on the horizon. You'll see why 'desire' language sits inversely correlated with price, why the near-total absence of a new narrative can be wildly bullish near a bottom, and how the BIP-110 debate produced algorithmic engagement patterns that looked artificially farmed. He also lays out the AI-bubble-to-Bitcoin thesis and why he's personally bearish by instinct but bullish on the data.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:38 - Why this rally feels like disbelief

1:09 - Massive sentiment phase shift after crash

2:01 - Rally lacks expected euphoria levels

3:05 - Tracking caring language in ColdCard event

3:58 - Technologists impressed most during crisis

5:12 - Studying Saylor's four Bitcoin cohorts

6:33 - MSTR shareholders as conviction outlier

7:18 - OG optimism as reliable bullish signal

7:59 - Are OGs turning optimistic now

9:56 - Emotions linked to time and excitement

11:40 - Downturn negative language uniquely severe

12:40 - Desire language at market tops and bottoms

16:52 - How language analysis became his focus

19:11 - BIP-110 debate through psychology lens

21:09 - Algorithmic engagement that felt farmed

26:55 - AI bots distorting sentiment data

29:47 - Spotting leaders and narrative first movers

32:56 - Narratives shaping markets and price

34:37 - Absence of narrative as bullish signal

36:42 - Does price or emotion move first

40:03 - AI deflation versus Bitcoin scarcity thesis

40:30 - Euphoria missing at prior all-time high

45:17 - Bitcoiners versus treasury company speculators

50:07 - Conviction language versus hedging explained

54:03 - Denoising sarcasm with cohort analysis

59:31 - Signals needed to confirm bearish view

1:00:06 - Data pointing bullish over coming months

1:02:10 - Where to follow Michael's latest work

Michael writes deep analysis on Bitcoin sentiment and shares it on X and Substack — links below.

🔗 Links & Resources:

https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan

⚡Previous Episode - Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

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⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN

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#Bitcoin #BitcoinSentiment #BTCSessions #BTC #MarketPsychology #MichaelSullivan #DisbeliefRally #BitcoinRally #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinCohorts #BitcoinOG #CryptoPsychology #FearAndGreed #NarrativeShifts #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoSentiment #BitcoinTwitter #SelfCustody #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #StackSats #BIP110 #BitcoinInterview

Mentor Sessions Ep. 091: Tom Luongo explains the 2026 currency war, Scott Bessent's yen bomb, oil collateral, European bond squeeze, and the US Treasury buyback plan.

The previously most powerful people in the world are now price takers, not price makers — and Tom Luongo walks through exactly how Scott Bessent flipped that switch. Global markets just witnessed a structural break in the European bond trade, and almost nobody saw the mechanism behind it.

In this conversation, Tom Luongo and Nathan break down the currency war unfolding across the FX and bond markets: how Bessent 'bombed the yen' by selling euros instead of dollars, why the euro-yen cross froze the moment Operation Epic Fury began, and how Iranian oil loadings were being used as collateral to fuel the short-yen, short-Treasury trade. You'll learn why the US Treasury buyback expansion is a signal and not QE, how the German Bund fits into Europe's alleged default-and-consolidate endgame, and what John Ratcliffe's open trip to Moscow may be telegraphing. You'll also hear Luongo's falsifiable macro thesis — where the 30-year yield goes next, and what it means for gold, silver and Bitcoin.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:44 - Bessent's Moves on Yen and Euro

1:27 - Shifting From Kinetic to Economic Siege

3:06 - The Yen Carry Trade That Shouldn't Exist

4:42 - Bessent Blew It Up Selling Euros

8:26 - Euro-Yen Cross Freezes After Iran Strikes

8:49 - Iranian Oil Used as Trade Collateral

11:17 - Traders Trapped After Buying Oil Breakout

12:59 - How Bessent Scans 270 Markets for Signals

18:05 - Treasury Buyback Expansion Details

22:04 - Defending the 5.25 Percent Yield Level

23:31 - Buyback Limit Is Just a Market Signal

27:15 - Europe's Default and ECB Consolidation Plan

28:45 - Financial Warfare and Carney's Trade War

29:40 - Abundant Mines Sponsor

33:20 - Banks Trading With Iran Cut From Dollars

38:01 - US Taxpayers Funding Global Financial Chaos

41:24 - Is the Budget Deficit Really Shrinking

45:17 - China Iran Canada Oil and Banking Links

47:46 - Why Ratcliffe Is Meeting Russia in Moscow

50:54 - BRICS as Hedge Not Dollar Replacement

53:33 - Gold Silver Bitcoin Surge Explained

55:20 - Pushing the Long End of Yields Lower

59:00 - Key Markets to Watch Through Election

1:00:14 - Reading the Charts That Actually Matter

1:01:16 - Luongo's Falsifiable Macro Thesis

1:02:38 - Where to Follow Tom Luongo

Tom Luongo publishes his macro analysis and the Gold, Goats 'n Guns newsletter — links below.

⚡Previous Episode - Jeff Booth & Scott Melker: https://youtu.be/J7ze_lMKbZM

🔗 Links & Resources:

• Tom Luongo on X: https://x.com/TFL1728

• Gold Goats 'n Guns blog: https://tomluongo.me

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #ScottBessent #TomLuongo #Gold #Iran #MarkCarney #BondMarket #USTreasury #YenCarryTrade #CurrencyWar #FinancialWarfare #GlobalMacro #DollarSystem #Geopolitics #BTCSessions #OilCollateral #EuroDefault #GermanBund #KevinWarsh #Silver

Mentor Sessions Ep. 090: Jeff Booth and Scott Melker discuss Bitcoin adoption, ETF co-opting, the AI bubble, self-custody risk after the ColdCard hack, and the debt reset.

Wall Street, the ETFs, and the treasury companies are making every attempt to co-opt Bitcoin — and Jeff Booth and Scott Melker explain why that capture attempt may be exactly what Bitcoin needs to survive. The $350 trillion global debt pile is already insolvent, the AI bubble is still inflating, and self-custody just took a brutal reality check after the ColdCard fallout.

In this conversation you'll learn why Booth believes the existing system and Bitcoin cannot coexist over the long run, why he feels "incredible" even as price bleeds, and how the messy financialization of Bitcoin through institutions still funnels people toward spot self-custody. You'll hear Melker's honest read on adoption — that when arguments come down to "rolling dice for entropy," we are nowhere near mainstream — and Booth's thesis on why AI CapEx can never be paid back when the marginal cost of a line of code is zero. You'll also get a candid post-mortem on hardware wallet security, why "don't trust, verify" broke down for thousands of users, and what a new generation of self-custody solutions might look like.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:54 - Scott on adoption and why Bitcoin is strongest yet

3:08 - Did Covid pull forward Bitcoin demand like credit?

5:20 - Jeff Booth's first-principles case: $350T of insolvent debt

7:33 - Why Bitcoin and the centralizing system can't coexist

8:33 - If they can't kill it, they have to co-opt it

9:04 - Where each of us chooses to put our energy

11:44 - Does financialization actually risk decentralization?

12:11 - Scott's 2026 tweet on Bitcoin being co-opted

15:22 - Sticky narratives and gaining exposure to Bitcoin

15:49 - Scott's personal path from altcoins to Bitcoin

17:39 - Jeff on watching thousands make the same transition

18:14 - The rational actor trapped inside the system

22:32 - The abundance of deflation and killing the price story

26:07 - Ad: Abundant Mines

27:03 - What Wall Street friends really think of Bitcoin

28:09 - The ColdCard hack hits the Bloomberg terminal

30:09 - Will people flee to qualified custodians and ETFs?

31:11 - How far along the self-custody journey are we really?

33:05 - Rolling dice for entropy and the honesty test

35:47 - Self-custody as an active, ongoing responsibility

39:10 - How would you tell a beginner to custody Bitcoin in 2026?

40:42 - The brutal and beautiful side of the Bitcoin community

45:35 - Testing your recovery: move it, back it up, verify

47:13 - New private federation and settlement security models

48:41 - Scott's view of the AI markets and the coming bubble pop

51:26 - Jeff on marginal cost of code, why everything goes to free

55:14 - Orange juice, private equity, and moving businesses into Bitcoin

57:22 - Where to follow Scott and Jeff

🔗 Links & Resources:

• Follow Scott Melker on X: https://x.com/scottmelker

• Follow Jeff Booth: https://jeffbooth.com

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #JeffBooth #ScottMelker #BitcoinSelfCustody #ColdCardHack #AIBubble #DebtCrisis #BitcoinETF #SoundMoney #FinalReset #BitcoinAdoption #Deflation #HardwareWallet #BitcoinInterview #BitcoinOnly #SelfCustody #BitcoinPrivacy #FreeMarket #BitcoinNodes #MacroBitcoin #BitcoinCooption #DecentralizedMoney #WoldOfAllStreets

Mentor Sessions Ep. 089: Bitcoin hardware wallet makers Zach Herbert, Tomas Susanka and Drew Fischer discuss the Coldcard hack, multi-sig, entropy and self-custody security.

The Coldcard hack was the single biggest blow to Bitcoin self-custody yet — so four rival hardware wallet makers sat down together to figure out what it means for everyone holding their own keys. This is the conversation the industry needed.

Zach Herbert (Foundation Passport), Tomas Susanka (Trezor), Drew Fischer (Blockstream Jade) and Seed from the SeedSigner team break down the fallout: what the vulnerability actually exposed, why open source alone wasn't the safety net people assumed, and the entropy/dice-roll debate that split the panel. You'll learn why multi-vendor multi-sig is emerging as the strongest defense, how entropy is really generated on these devices, and the honest trade-offs between usability and security. You'll also hear the fresh news on the Trezor fulfillment-partner data leak (disclosed August 10, 2026) and what to do if you're worried about shipping and privacy.

This is a rare, candid roundtable where competitors disagree openly — and that dialog is exactly what makes it worth your time.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:56 - Four wallet makers respond to Coldcard hack

1:58 - Ben's question on self-custody downstream effects

3:02 - Zach on short-term setback and great hardening

6:19 - Tomas on AI helping attackers and defenders

8:44 - Drew on custodians, ETFs and verify don't trust

10:30 - SeedSigner on entropy sources and multi-sig

13:11 - Usability versus security trade-off debate

17:20 - Should self-custody be made harder not easier

18:56 - Dice rolls versus RNG entropy disagreement

22:16 - Zach on how many people actually self-custody

26:14 - Priorities when choosing a hardware wallet

29:01 - Security as a journey not a destination

33:03 - Sponsor: Abundant Mines

36:00 - Why multi-vendor multi-sig should be the goal

41:25 - Source available versus fully open source explained

47:34 - Open source as required but not sufficient

51:11 - How to know if a wallet is actually safe

56:57 - Trezor fulfillment data leak disclosed August 10

1:03:49 - Private device purchases and local meetups

1:06:01 - Where to find each project online

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ SeedSigner: https://seedsigner.com

→ Foundation Passport: https://foundation.xyz/

→ Trezor: https://trezor.io

→ Blockstream Jade: https://blockstream.com/jade

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #BitcoinSelfCustody #ColdCard #ColdcardHack #BitcoinHack #HardwareWallet #MultiSig #SeedSigner #Trezor #Passport #BlockstreamJade #BitcoinSecurity #NotYourKeys #ZachHerbert #TomasSusanka