Casual Inference

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Sameer Deshpande⁠ join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into using BART for baseball!

Check out the details here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Grayson Weavil, Madeline Merrill, and Wesley Krieger join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into Dancing with the Stars stats.

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Hannah Barton joins ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into Love Island Kissing Scores.

Check out the details here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Roger Peng⁠ joins ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into becoming an accidental business man.

Check out the details here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Mattan Ben-Shachar⁠ joins ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into whether different colored marshmallows taste different.

*Be sure to listen to the end for a surprising addendum!

Check out the full process here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠], [⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

⁠Emily Riederer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (Capital One) joins ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into scraping election data.

Check out the full process here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠⁠⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠], [⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

⁠Hadley Wickham⁠ (Posit) joins ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into building a web scraper to help acquire art.

Check out the full process here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Links to content we chat about on the episode:

• ⁠⁠⁠Weston Lambert Art⁠
• ⁠Parallel strands between learning crochet and learning programming by Maëlle Salmon⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠⁠⁠@regressiontothemeangirls⁠

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [⁠Apple Podcasts⁠], [⁠Spotify⁠], or wherever you love to listen!

Christine Zhang⁠ (⁠New York Times⁠) joins ⁠⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠⁠⁠ with a data-driven side quest into the TV show Law and Order.

Check out the full analysis here: ⁠⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠⁠

Links to content we chat about on the episode:

• ⁠Wrong Number newsletter⁠
• ⁠The Speed of Justice, According to Law & Order⁠

Follow along on instagram:

⁠@regressiontothemeangirls

Follow Regression to the Mean Girls on [Apple Podcasts], [Spotify], or wherever you love to listen!

⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠Sarah Lotspeich⁠⁠ return with a data-driven side quest into the TV show Severance. Lucy analyzes whether Milchick really uses more complicated language than his colleagues.

Check out the full analysis here: ⁠⁠regressiontothemeangirls.com⁠⁠

Links to content we chat about on the episode:

• ⁠⁠Lucy's Severance data R package [mdr]⁠⁠
• ⁠⁠Lucy's other Severance analyses⁠⁠
• ⁠⁠Dunnet⁠⁠
• ⁠⁠Radial plot of who is speaking in Severance ⁠⁠

Follow along on instagram:

@regressiontothemeangirls

Sarah Lotspeich⁠ and ⁠Lucy D'Agostino McGowan⁠ introduce Regression to the Mean Girls, a podcast about data-driven side quests in pop culture. In this episode, Sarah analyzes 45 recent romance novels to find out how different romance tropes affect the timing of the couple’s first kiss.

Check out the full analysis here: ⁠https://regressiontothemeangirls.com/⁠

Links to content we chat about on the episode:

• ⁠Edward L. Kaplan and the Kaplan-Meier Survival Curve⁠
• ⁠Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations⁠
• ⁠Not just love, actually: why romance fiction is booming⁠
• ⁠What is the lipstick index?⁠

Follow along on instagram:

@regressiontothemeansgirls

Podcast feed: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/rttmg/

Emily Riederer is a Data Science Senior Manager at Credit Risk Modeling Capital One. Her website can be found here: https://www.emilyriederer.com/

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Emily: ‪@emilyriederer.bsky.social‬
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Carly Brantner is an assistant professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics at Duke University and Duke Clinical Research Institute.

Resources from this episode:

•

multicate: R package for estimating conditional average treatment effects across one or more studies using machine learning methods

•

PCORnet® Front Door: Access point for potential investigators, patient groups, and other stakeholders to connect with PCORnet and get support for potential research studies

•

Patient-Centered Outcomes Data Repository (PDOCR): De-identified data from 24 (and counting) PCORI-funded studies

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Carly: @carlybrantner.bsky.social
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade.

Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Andrew Heiss is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University.

• Vincent's "What is your estimand" section in his {marginaleffects} book: https://marginaleffects.com/chapters/challenge.html#sec-goals_estimand
• Article on defining estimands: https://doi.org/10.1177/00031224211004187
• Andrew's marginal effects post: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05/20/marginalia/
• Andrew's post on "fixed effects" and mariginal effects across different disciplines: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/11/29/conditional-marginal-marginaleffects/

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Andrew: @andrew.heiss.phd
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

In this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid", which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism.

Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a better version of this study might look like.

• Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid: https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/
• RFK Jr is promoting a new study claiming "vaccines cause autism" but it doesn't add up. Literally [Ellie's substack]: https://epiellie.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-promoting-a-new-study-claiming

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy.

• Vincent's website: https://arelbundock.com/
•

Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models With marginaleffects for R and Python": https://marginaleffects.com/

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Vincent: @vincentab.bsky.social
• Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Noah Greifer is a statistical consultant and programmer at Harvard University.

Episode notes:

•

WeightIt package: https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/

•

MatchIt package: https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/

•

Noah's awesome Stack Exchange post: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958

Follow along on Bluesky:

• Noah: @noahgreifer.bsky.social
• Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social
• Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Lucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference.

• Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1

Follow along on Twitter:

•

The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

•

Ellie: @EpiEllie

•

Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade. Edited by Cameron Bopp.

Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World.

• Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [Blog Post]
• Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [Article]

Follow along on Bluesky:

•

Len: @lentesta.bsky.social

•

Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social

•

Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade

Alyssa Bilinski, Peterson Family Assistant Professor of Health Policy, and Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, at Brown University School of Public Health. Her research focuses on developing novel methods for policy evaluation and applying these to identify interventions that most efficiently improve population health and well-being.

Episode notes:

•

PNAS paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2302528120

•

Shuo Feng's pre-print: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.08.24305335v1

•

Our uncertainty paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33475686/

Follow along on Twitter:

• Alyssa: @ambilinski
•

The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

•

Ellie: @EpiEllie

•

Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp

Edward Kennedy Associate Professor, Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon.

•

http://ehkennedy.com

•

Evaluating a Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimator for Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application to HIV Surveillance in San Francisco, California: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/193/4/673/7425624

•

Doubly Robust Capture-Recapture Methods for Estimating Population Size: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2023.2187814

Follow along on Twitter:

•

The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi

•

Ellie: @EpiEllie

•

Lucy: @LucyStats

🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDadeEdited by Cameron Bopp