Changing Climate, Changing Migration

A forecasted historic El Niño, labeled “Super Godzilla,” is expected to peak in late 2026 and turn 2027 into the hottest year ever recorded on the planet. Expected to be the largest El Niño in at least 1,000 years, the event is expected to result in extreme temperatures, devastating rainfall and droughts, and other unusual weather patterns globally. Although the event is a naturally occurring phenomenon in the Pacific, its impacts are magnified by human-caused climate change.

That could lead to huge displacement.

In this episode, we speak with Alexander Kjærum, a global advisor and senior analyst with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) who has forecasted some of the potential displacement impacts of the super El Niño. He explains why the weather system may lead to new displacement, highlights specific examples around the world, and discusses how organizations are seeking to use anticipatory action to protect people before disaster strikes.

Chapters

01:38 El Niño's Global Weather Impacts

03:22 Displacement Forecasts for East Africa

09:31 Climate Stress, Conflict, and Trapped Populations

14:33 Anticipatory Action, Cost-Efficiency, and Funding Cuts

In 2016, the U.S. federal government provided $48 million to relocate the climate-threatened Louisiana island of Isle de Jean Charles. The effort, which was the government’s first climate-driven community relocation project, was closely watched as a potential model for the future.

But the relocation was more challenging than originally anticipated. Many residents who were members of a Native American tribe felt they had been treated unfairly or were excluded from decisionmaking. In the end, some tribal leaders referred to the process as a “cultural genocide.”

We speak with Jessica Simms, a cultural geographer who was Louisiana’s lead outreach and engagement coordinator for the resettlement effort. She traces the array of factors behind the decision to relocate and the mix of successes and challenges along the way.

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Chapters

01:44 Louisiana's Disappearing Coastline
07:46 Previous Failed Relocation Attempts
09:07 Federal Funding and National Goals
13:50 Miscommunication between Tribes and the State
17:30 Outreach Efforts and Voluntary Relocation
22:02 The Relocation's Legacy

Fiji has long been at the forefront of developing policies to help its residents voluntarily relocate to escape the extreme effects of climate change. The country, which is comprised of hundreds of islands in the Pacific, faces rising sea levels, extreme weather, and other dangers.

But for many Fijians, the choice to pack up and leave home is a difficult one. Many have a deep spiritual and personal connection to place, a concept known as vanua. Meanwhile, as one of the largest economies in the region, Fiji is also a destination for migrants from other Pacific Island countries, including those threatened by climate change.

How has the government tried to support people who move? What considerations do residents consider when deciding whether to relocate? And what is the response to immigration from other countries?

On this episode, we discuss these issues with Sargam Goundar, a Fijian doctoral researcher at the University of Otago.

Chapters

01:41 Climate Impacts Unfolding in Fiji

04:54 Government-Led Planned Relocation Framework

08:17 The Concept of Vanua: Cultural Ties to Land

13:10 Community Concerns and Decision-Making Around Relocation

16:44 Fiji as a Regional Migration Destination

22:16 Policy Gaps and Research Priorities

The coordinated global response to climate change-driven displacement is relatively new. Just a few decades ago, virtually no governments were paying attention to the ways in which people were being displaced by extreme weather, sea-level rise, and other climate events. Although the international response remains a work in progress, significant strides have been made to bring the world together.

One of the people responsible for that coordination is Walter Kälin, a longtime humanitarian expert and legal scholar who is now the Envoy of the Chair of the Platform on Disaster Displacement, a country-led initiative that works to protect people at risk of climate-related displacement. In this discussion, he breaks down where things stand today in terms of a coordinated response and how things might evolve in the future.

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Chapters

01:15 Evolution of Global Displacement Policy

06:45 Climate Change Enters the Displacement Agenda (2004–2010)

10:28 The Nansen Initiative and the Birth of the Platform on Disaster Displacement

17:55 Lessons Learned: Bottom-Up Over Top-Down Approaches

19:58 Navigating Declining Funding and Political Fragmentation

24:30 Advice for the Next Generation

Climate change can be devastating for individuals’ health and safety. Climate-linked natural disasters can cause physical injuries and damage health-care systems, while slow-onset changes such sea-level rise can lead to the spread of disease and make it harder for people to obtain care.

In that context, leaving a climate-vulnerable place can potentially lead to better health outcomes—but only under the right circumstances.

In this episode, we speak with Ilse Ruyssen, an economist at Ghent University and the UN University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies, who leads the CliMigHealth research network.

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Chapters

01:19 Health Vulnerability among Climate Migrants

05:13 Groups at Highest Risk

08:36 When Migration Protects Health

11:51 How Climate Change Directly Harms Health

17:02 Strain on Health-Care Systems

22:18 Countering the "Migrants as Health Risk" Narrative

25:48 Mental Health and Climate Displacement

27:48 What to Do?

Climate change is making home insurance more expensive and less available, as the multibillion-dollar losses caused by hurricanes, wildfires, and other disasters increase in scale. Rising insurance premiums can push some people to relocate or force others to either pay more money to remain in their home or go without insurance and risk catastrophe if disaster strikes. Residents, insurance companies, and policymakers in high-income countries are beginning to reckon with these issues and are working to find a way to adequately offset risk without charging exorbitant prices. This episode features Talley Burley, who analyzes climate risk and insurance at the Environmental Defense Fund.

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Chapters

02:17 How Climate Change Is Raising Insurance Costs

06:04 Hazards Driving Insurability Concerns

07:38 Insurance Costs as a Driver of Migration

09:49 Climate Entrapment and Equity Issues

15:13 Policy Solutions: Adaptation, Building Codes and Wraparound Services

18:52 The National Flood Insurance Program: Origins and Trade-offs

26:00 Hurricane Sandy: Lessons in Recovery and Relocation

Refugees are often some of the people most vulnerable to climate change. After fleeing armed conflict or persecution, many refugees end up in camps located in rural areas, with few resources and little support. That can leave them vulnerable to floods, storms, extreme heat, or other impacts of climate change.

This episode focuses on these impacts, with insights from Ayoo Irene Hellen, a South Sudanese refugee in Uganda and climate advocate. She discusses her own experiences, those of her community, and the value of including refugee voices in planning.

Want to dive deeper? Listen to an earlier episode speaking with the UN refugee agency’s special advisor on climate action: https://mpichangingclimatechangingmigration.podbean.com/e/no-climate-refugees-but-still-a-role-for-the-un-refugee-agency/

All of MPI’s work on climate migration is here: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/topics/climate-change

00:00 Intro

02:45 Climate impacts on refugee settlements in Uganda

09:32 Legal and socioeconomic barriers to climate adaptation

16:52 Exclusion of refugees from climate policy processes

19:21 Refugee-led community resilience strategies

23:11 Climate challenges upon return: The case of South Sudan

27:24 Closing thoughts: co-creation and refugee inclusion

Many Indigenous people have a deep connection to their ancestral homelands that dates back centuries. What happens when climate change and other factors force them to move away from those lands? This episode discusses issues affecting Indigenous people, especially in the Americas. Our guest is environmental scientist Jessica Hernandez, a climate justice and Indigenous advocate. She discusses the factors compelling migration for Indigenous communities, their experiences after migration and the dearth of Indigenous voices in policy discussions over climate change and migration.

Africa may be the most climate-vulnerable region of the world, with drought, extreme heat and storms, and other impacts affecting millions across the continent. These environmental events have forced people from their homes and in some cases even contributed to conflict between different groups. By far, most climate-affected individuals who migrate stay either within their own country or go elsewhere on the continent, rather than migrating beyond Africa.

How prepared is the continent for a future of increased displacement? Governments are making some strides to accommodate displaced people—although there is often a gap between official rhetoric and the realities on the ground. This episode discusses climate-linked migration issues across Africa with Aimée-Noël Mbiyozo, a senior research consultant at the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies.

It is not guaranteed that someone harmed by a natural disaster or other environmental change will leave their home. A complicated web of factors affects whether climate-vulnerable individuals want to—or even can—move. One of these factors is financial: How much money or other resources someone has at their disposal.

In this episode, we speak with Kelsea Best of The Ohio State University about climate (im)mobility and the economic and other factors that help shape futures amid changing climates. We also discuss the notion of “climate gentrification,” which occurs when wealthier people move into traditionally lower-income neighborhoods that are better shielded from natural disasters and other environmental harms.

Children are especially vulnerable to displacement linked to climate change. Each year, millions of young people are displaced by weather-related disasters, as schools and other services break down and adults send children away to find safety. Forced from their homes, children often face new challenges, including being unable to access education or medical care, and even heightened risk of violence and other dangers. Despite the unique challenges that children face in displacement, there are relatively few international laws or systems particularly designed to assist those forced to move because of environmental factors. We speak with UNICEF’s Laura Healy about this reality and the opportunities to better protect children in a warming world.

Within the next few decades, rising sea levels could wipe some small Pacific Island nations off the face of the earth. The prospect that the physical territory of countries such as Kiribati and Tuvalu is no longer habitable raises the prospect that their nationals could lose their citizenship, becoming stateless. It also poses profound questions for international law and the obligations of other countries.

How likely is this possible outcome, and what can countries do to protect their sovereignty and their citizens? Join our discussion with Mark Nevitt, an international law scholar at the Emory University School of Law.

It is no easy task to say with certainty that a particular storm, drought, or other extreme weather event causes human displacement, or that those individual events are due to human-caused climate change. Hurricanes, wildfires, mudslides, monsoons, and other sudden-onset events, as well as slow-onset ones such as drought, extreme heat, and sea-level rise, have happened for millennia. To attribute specific impacts to human-made environmental change requires scientists to parse through years of data and pattern detection. In this episode, we speak with climate scientist Lisa Thalheimer, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, to explain how experts untangle the connections between climate change and migration.

The small island nations that make up the Caribbean are incredibly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many people and businesses are concentrated along the coastline, exposing them to intensifying hurricanes and rising sea levels. Are these hazards prompting greater displacement, either within the region or beyond? And could they reduce tourism, prompting economic shocks to countries dependent on vacationers? This episode discusses these issues and others with Natalie Dietrich Jones, a migration expert at the University of the West Indies.

Does AI have a role to play in mapping and predicting climate migration trends? In this episode of the podcast, we explore the issue with John Aoga, a postdoctoral researcher at UCLouvain in Belgium. He led a study using machine learning algorithms to trace how climate shocks affected migration intentions in several countries in West Africa. We discuss his findings and the broader promise and peril of using these types of technologies to map and predict migration flows.

Under the right circumstances, climate-induced migration can aggravate the drivers of violent conflict. In places such as the Middle East and West Africa’s Sahel region, migration during times of environmental precarity can upset delicate social and demographic balances and place additional pressure on local authorities. Left to fester, the results can be deadly. This episode explores this connection between climate change and human mobility in conversation with journalist Peter Schwartzstein, author of the book The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence.

Floods, drought, extreme temperatures, and other climate events have devastated parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Repercussions of climate change come on top of years of conflict, which have left countless numbers of people unable to adapt to changing conditions. In response, many have fled, either in short-term displacement or permanent migration. Our podcast speaks with researchers Maryam Abbasi and Nasrat Sayed about how climate change is compelling migration in Afghanistan and Pakistan, layering on top of conflict as a driver for displacement.

Natural disasters and other impacts of climate change are already affecting migration, but often in complex ways. This episode, we speak with Julia Neusner, a lawyer and researcher with the International Refugee Assistance Project. She has conducted surveys and interviews with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border about whether, where, and how they have experienced climate impacts, and offers some of their stories here. More than 40 percent of respondents said they experienced climate-related disasters, but few said those factors were the primary reason why they moved—offering further evidence of the fact that the linkages between changing climates and migration are not always clearcut.

Many countries need more workers to fill jobs in clean energy and other sectors that are critical in the fight against a warming planet. Immigrants may be one part of the solution to the challenges posed by climate change. But governments have been slow to ramp up responses to recruit, train, or accredit foreign-born workers necessary for the green transition, with one model estimating a shortage of 7 million green workers globally by 2030. This episode discusses the labor picture and global trends in green sectors with Kate Hooper, a Migration Policy Institute senior policy analyst who focuses on global labor migration.

The international humanitarian protection system that was built in the aftermath of World War II does not offer protection for people displaced by climate change. In this episode, former UN Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees T. Alexander Aleinikoff, who is now Executive Dean of The New School for Social Research, calls the refugee system “broken.” Rather than expanding to accommodate “climate refugees,” he makes the case for starting over with a new paradigm focused on a right not to be displaced. Such a system would be designed to help people stay in their homes through climate adaptations and resilience, he argues, and provide a mechanism for seeking justice.