Choiceology with Katy Milkman

This is a special feature from the Choiceology archives. Right now, prediction markets, pollsters, and data analysts are working overtime. But predicting the future—especially in high-stakes environments—is notoriously hard. Most of us ignore critical data and place too much confidence in the accuracy of our guesses. We're revisiting this timeless conversation with former CIA Director Leon Panetta, national security analyst Peter Bergen, and Wharton Professor Barbara Mellers on how to master the art of forecasting under uncertainty.

There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.

In this episode of Choiceology withKaty Milkman, we look at what makes some people "superforecasters."

In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.

We will hear this story from two perspectives.

Peter Bergen is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden. He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.

Former CIA director Leon Panetta led the United States government's hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.

Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information.

You can read more in the paper titled "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions."

Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden From 9/11 to Abbottabad, The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden, and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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Think about the habits that define your day-to-day life—how you manage your money, look after your health, or tackle your to-do list. You might assume they reflect your personality or upbringing. But what if they’re actually shaped by the language you speak?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, explore how subtle linguistic shifts can change the way you make decisions—and bridge the gap between who you are today and who you want to be tomorrow.

We travel to a unique cultural crossroads tucked high in the Alps of northern Italy. Marc Röggla, head of the European nonprofit Center for Autonomy Experience, shares the gripping history of South Tyrol—a region where political borders were redrawn overnight after World War I. He shares how his grandfather's generation risked their safety in secret, candlelit "catacomb schools" to keep their German mother tongue alive under fascist oppression—setting the stage for a surprising study on how children in the exact same region process time and temptation today.

Then, Katy speaks with UCLA behavioral economist Keith Chen about his foundational research demonstrating how "future-less" languages (like German or Mandarin) can erase the mental distance between now and later. They discuss how these tiny quirks in grammar alter decisions around saving, smoking, and exercise—and how you can trick your brain into better choices, no matter what language you speak.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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Across all kinds of decisions—from our salaries to our weekend plans—we tend to prefer options that progressively get better, if given the choice. Why is it that our minds place such a high premium on an upward trajectory?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at why we're drawn to experiences that appear to improve over time.

Katy speaks with Jerald Podair, Robert S. French Professor of American Studies, Emeritus, at Lawrence University and author of The Strike That Changed New York. They revisit the historic 1960 New York City public school teachers' strike where educators put their careers on the line to trade short-term perks and principal favoritism for a contract that guaranteed a predictable, upward-climbing pay scale for everyone.

Then, Katy is joined by George Loewenstein, Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Economics and Psychology at Carnegie Mellon University and author of the new book The Opposite of Happiness: How Bad Feelings Make and Break Us. They discuss his seminal research on why we prefer rising salaries, the emotional toll of anticipation and dread, and how a simple change in order of events can flip our decisions.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, The Strike That Changed New York, and The Opposite of Happiness:How Bad Feelings Make and Break Us are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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We've been taught that oversharing is a major social sin. We cringe at the thought of unloading emotional baggage on a stranger or admitting a flaw to our boss. So most of us default to silence. But what if not sharing is the bigger mistake?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at some of the surprising costs of keeping quiet, why we misjudge the risks of revealing our true selves, and how opening up—even about our flaws—can make us more trusted, influential, and connected.

Katy speaks with Leslie John, the James. E. Burke Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and the author of the new book Revealing: The Underrated Power of Oversharing. They delve into Leslie's lived experience of navigating a deeply personal family silence and the profound, transformative conversation that unfolded when she finally chose to open up. Then, Katy and Leslie discuss the science behind disclosure, why we are often more vulnerable to online scams than we realize, and what happens to our relationships when we choose to reveal a little more.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Mindwise: How We Understand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want, A Little More Social: How Small Choices Create Unexpected Happiness, Health, and Connection, and Revealing: The Underrated Power of Oversharing are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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Are your instincts talking you out of your own happiness? Every day, we make split-second decisions to avoid the people around us. We put in our earbuds on the train, stare at our phones, and assume the stranger next to us prefers to be left alone. Our brain tells us that reaching out will be awkward or intrusive. But what if those instincts are wrong?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at the barriers we build between ourselves and the rest of the world, why we might misjudge the social value of a simple conversation, and how connecting more can make us happier and wiser.

Katy speaks with Nick Epley, a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the author of the new book A Little More Social: How Small Choices Create Unexpected Happiness, Health, and Connection. They delve into Nick's lived experience of embracing social connection during a difficult moment in his family's life and the joyful, permanent difference it made. Then, Katy and Nick discuss the science behind our social fears and what happens when we choose not to follow our instincts.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Mindwise: How We Understand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want, A Little More Social: How Small Choices Create Unexpected Happiness, Health, and Connection, and Revealing: The Underrated Power of Oversharing are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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How did small index cards help a high school football team pull off a legendary 151-game winning streak? And what can a 1960s Queens housewife teach us about sticking to our goals?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore why some goals are easier to achieve than others—and how the people around us can change whether we abandon a goal or follow through.

Natalia Mehlman Petrzela, historian and author of Fit Nation: The Gains and Pains of America's Exercise Obsession, tells the story of Jean Nidetch. Frustrated by the isolating diet culture of the 1960s, Nidetch realized something powerful: People didn't just need better advice—they needed to stop struggling alone. What began as a small gathering of women in her living room eventually grew into Weight Watchers, one of the world's most recognizable wellness brands.

Then, Katy speaks with Angela Duckworth, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania and bestselling author of Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance and her new book, Situated: Find the People and Places That Bring Out Your Best. Together they explore why we're so quick to rely on willpower instead of changing our circumstances—and how making our goals visible to the right people can dramatically improve our chances of success.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance, Situated: Find the People and Places That Bring Out Your Best, and Fit Nation: The Gains and Pains of America's Exercise Obsession are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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What happens to our judgment when we measure our success against others? How might the language we speak shape the way we save money and make health decisions? And why are our expectations about connecting with other people so often wrong?

In the new season of Choiceology, host Katy Milkman explores the psychological forces that shape our decisions, relationships, and behavior.

We'll relive a high-octane Formula 1 rivalry that threatened a championship, travel to an Alpine region where centuries of linguistic history still shape financial decisions today, and discover how much joy and insight can come from striking up a conversation with a stranger.

Featuring insights from top behavioral scientists – including George Loewenstein, Angela Duckworth, Nick Epley, Keith Chen, Nir Halevy, and Leslie John—Choiceology turns cutting-edge behavioral science research into practical ideas you can use to make better decisions about money, work, relationships, and everyday life.

New episodes begin in two weeks. Catch up on past episodes now, and follow the show so you never miss an episode.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

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Teamwork is an essential part of everyday life, at work, school, and home. But what allows some teams to thrive under intense pressure while others buckle?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore how candid cultures that invite ideas from every level of an organization can be the difference between failure and a miracle.

Jonathan Franklin, an award-winning journalist based in Chile, tells the remarkable story of the 2010 San José mine collapse and rescue mission. Franklin's book 33 Men: Inside the Miraculous Survival and Dramatic Rescue of the Chilean Miners details key moments of candor and collaboration—and winning ideas that came from unlikely places.

Next, Katy speaks with Amy Edmondson, the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at the Harvard Business School. Edmondson shares her pioneering research on psychological safety and why it's so essential to build cultures that invite candor. Edmondson's foundational book on the topic, The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation and Growth, has been translated into 15 languages.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

01:10 The Organizational Failure Behind Space Shuttle Columbia

03:03 This Is Choiceology

03:38 World-Class Collaboration That Saved 33 Lives in Chile

18:21 The Power of Ideas Over Hierarchy

19:15 How to Create Cultures That Empower Teams With Amy Edmondson

34:37 The Value of Psychological Safety Everywhere

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, 33 Men: Inside the Miraculous Survival and Dramatic Rescue of the Chilean Miners, and The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation, and Growth are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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From stocks to fitness to video games, real-time performance data is available everywhere these days. Seeing desirable upward trends feels amazing. But when there's a drop, it can feel like the world is ending.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore what happens when we judge performance too much in the short term.

Cora Kennedy takes us inside the world of collegiate esports, where constant performance data shapes how players think and compete—including Cora herself. We also hear from Dan Ginn, who was a smartwatch devotee who checked his fitness data morning, noon, and night—until a serious illness forced him to rethink his habits.

Lastly, Katy speaks with Shlomo Benartzi, professor emeritus, behavioral decision-making, at UCLA Anderson School of Management. Shlomo shares his research on why we tend to overreact to short-term losses—and how this tendency helps explain a puzzle that has long stumped economists.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

00:00 Introduction

00:50 The Competitive World of Esports Stats

03:42 This Is Choiceology

04:15 Smartwatch Data Obsession Gone Awry

10:55 Checking Immediate Data Can Sabotage Long-Term Goals

11:46 The Equity Premium Puzzle and Myopic Loss Aversion With Shlomo Benartzi

23:27 Katy Milkman Reflects on Managing Myopia

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general, informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.>

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

There are risks associated with investing in dividend paying stocks, including but not limited to the risk that stocks may reduce or stop paying dividends.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be , Save More Tomorrow and The Smarter Screen are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.

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Imagine you're cleaning out your grandmother's attic when you notice a floorboard that doesn't quite sit right. You pry it up—and find $10,000 hidden beneath it. It's a startling discovery, but also a window into another way of thinking about money. Your grandmother was likely part of a generation that lived through hard financial times—a depression, unemployment—and saved for a rainy day, even when times became good.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we're looking at how major economic events impact us and influence how much risk we're comfortable taking.

Frank Ferrante shares the story of legendary comedian Groucho Marx and how Groucho fared during and after the stock market crash of 1929.

Next, Katy speaks with Ulrike Malmendier, the Cora Jane Flood Professor of Finance at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business. Ulrike's research reveals how major economic events can reshape our instincts about risk in ways that can last a lifetime, long after the circumstances that caused them have changed.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

0:00 Introduction

0:54 Hurricane Katrina's Lasting Mark

3:14 This is Choiceology

3:52 Groucho Marx After the 1929 Stock Market Crash

15:22 Why You Can Lose Out When Remaining Too Risk-Adverse

16:08 How Macroeconomic Experiences Shape Us With Ulrike Malmendier

29:07 Katy Milkman Reflects on Risk Preferences

31:09 Final Thoughts & Next Time

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Ranked lists are everywhere—top hospitals, best colleges, must-visit cities. A single number can influence what we notice, what we value, and the decisions we make. Yet behind these rankings are hidden assumptions, and they don't always reflect what matters most to you.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore how rankings shape attention, guide choices, and subtly steer behavior.

Shriya Boppana shares how rankings shaped one of the biggest decisions of her life—and, years later, what she gained and what she missed by chasing prestige.

Next, Katy speaks with Rick Larrick, the Hanes Corporation Foundation Professor of Management and Organizations at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. His research reveals how rank labels simplify complex choices and influence everything from restaurant reservations to career moves—often without us even noticing.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any investments reflected are for illustrative purposes only and are no guarantee of future performance or success.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Have you ever bought a pair of shoes that never really fit, but you kept wearing them in hopes you’d break them in? All because you didn’t want to feel your money had gone to waste—even as you felt blisters forming?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore how focusing on past, irrecoverable costs can skew our judgment and future commitments.

Bill Kolb takes us inside the Evergreen Aviation & Space Museum in McMinnville, Oregon. He shares the story of “The Spruce Goose” seaplane and why its creator, Howard Hughes, was so committed to the project despite many challenges and several opportunities to back out.

Next, Katy speaks with Richard Thaler, economics Nobel laureate and Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Thaler reveals why we tend to dwell on sunk costs that cannot be recovered and shares insights from his updated book The Winner’s Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now.

Check out the additional papers mentioned in this episode: “Paying Not to Go to the Gym” by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefano DellaVigna and “The Realization Effect: Risk-Taking After Realized Versus Paper Losses” by Alex Imas.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be and The Winner's Curse not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Every day, we face choices that could change outcomes in business, health, or life itself. Increasingly, computers are offering guidance. What happens when that advice clashes with human intuition?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore the high-stakes friction between human intuition and algorithmic guidance.

Dean Oliver, a data scientist at ESPN and author of Basketball on Paperand Basketball Beyond Paper, tells the story of the 2008 Boston Celtics. Facing a crossroads on roster moves and trades, the team made a radical gamble: They relied heavily on advanced analytics to reveal what traditional scouting missed. This choice ignited a data revolution that changed professional basketball forever.

Next, Katy speaks with Jennifer Logg, an assistant professor of management at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. Logg shares her research on how people respond to computer-generated predictions. She reveals the specific moments when machine advice consistently outperforms human judgment—and the hidden dangers that emerge when those systems are built on flawed or biased data.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

0:00 Introduction

1:00 Would You Trust an Algorithm Over a Friend for Cooking Advice?

2:36 This is Choiceology

3:11 The Boston Celtics’ Rebuild Meets Analytics

17:13 The Rise of Algorithm Trust

18:56 Why We Prefer Algorithms to People with Jennifer Logg

32:37 Trust Algorithms With Care

35:31 Final Thoughts & Next Time

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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It's a new season of Choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

Each episode tells true stories involving high-stakes moments and explores the latest research to help you make better judgments and avoid costly mistakes.

This season, we go underground to one of the most dramatic mining rescues in history and step onto the court during a pivotal Boston Celtics roster shakeup. We hear from leading researchers in psychology and behavioral economics, such as Richard Thaler, Amy Edmondson, and more.

New episodes arrive every two weeks. Follow now in your favorite podcasting app.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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As a special addition to this week's episode, you can see Katy's full sit-down interview with Angela Duckworth, where they also explore the relationship between self-control and grit.

• Watch or listen to their conversation on YouTube or Spotify.

When your emotions flare or temptation calls, what does it take to hold back? Whether it’s resisting the urge to lash out or the pull of short-term pleasure in favor of long-term goals, self-control can be one of the hardest—and most important—skills we ever learn.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore the power and limits of self-control. You'll hear how legendary baseball player Jackie Robinson changed the course of history not just with his athletic talent, but through extraordinary composure in the face of hatred. Dr. Yohuru Williams is a professor of history and the founding director of the Racial Justice Initiative at the University of St. Thomas. He is also the co-author of Call Him Jack: The Story of Jackie Robinson, Black Freedom Fighter. He explains how Jackie Robinson's restraint and strategic discipline helped dismantle racial barriers in Major League Baseball—and why his quiet strength was anything but passive.

Then, Katy sits down with psychologist and Grit author Dr. Angela Duckworth, a leading expert on self-control. She breaks down what science tells us about managing impulses, why willpower by itself falls short, and how simple environmental tweaks and practical strategies can help anyone delay gratification and make smarter choices.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general, informational and educational purposes only.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

This material contains links to content that is available on third-party websites. Schwab is not responsible for the content and does not provide, edit, or endorse any of the content.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Call Him Jack: The Story of Jackie Robinson, Black Freedom Fighter, and Grit are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

© 2025 Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. Member SIPC

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In this bonus addition of Choiceology, Katy Milkman sits down with psychologist and Grit author Dr. Angela Duckworth, a leading expert on self-control. She breaks down what science tells us about managing impulses, why willpower by itself falls short, and how simple environmental tweaks and practical strategies can help anyone delay gratification and make smarter choices.

Katy and Angela's conversation is featured in the Choiceology episode "Playing the Long Game: The Power of Self-Control," now available in your favorite podcast app.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/Choiceology.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general, informational and educational purposes only.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

This material contains links to content that is available on third-party websites. Schwab is not responsible for the content and does not provide, edit, or endorse any of the content.

The book Grit is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Most of us label ourselves early on as academic (or not), athletic (or not), or talented (or not). But even if you feel like you're lacking in natural talent or ability in certain areas, approaching new skills or challenges with openness, effort, and curiosity can take you farther than you might expect.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we look at the stories we tell ourselves about our abilities—and how to create conditions that can shape our trajectories for growth and achievement.

You'll hear from Donna Ferguson, a freelance journalist with The Guardian and The Observer, along with a couple of adults from a piece she wrote about embracing learning new skills and personal growth later in life.

Then, Katy speaks with Mary Murphy, a professor of psychological and brain sciences at Indiana University, where she conducts pioneering research on motivation, performance, and the distinction between growth and fixed mindsets. Murphy is the author of the book Cultures of Growth: How the New Science of Mindset Can Transform Individuals, Teams, and Organizations. Her mentor is Carol Dweck, author of the book Mindset: The New Psychology of Success.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general, informational and educational purposes only.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Cultures of Growth: How the New Science of Mindset can Transform Individuals, Teams, and Organizations, Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, and Grit are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

If you've ever gotten well into a project—maybe a DIY renovation—and then realized that you've taken the wrong approach, you probably know that it's very tempting to just stay the course. Starting all over again would be so painful, even if starting over is clearly the best option.

Or maybe you've taken a wrong turn on a hike and only noticed it a mile later. You know the dread of going back. Even if turning around is the smartest option, there's a strong pull to just keep moving forward.

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore why people push ahead, even when a better path is available.

You'll hear the epic story of the building of the Panama Canal—and the high cost of not starting over when setbacks kept mounting.

Then, Katy speaks with Berkeley Haas ProfessorClayton Critcher about what he and collaborator Kristine Cho have dubbed doubling-back aversion and how it can affect many different decisions in our lives.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general, informational and educational purposes only.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What makes an effective team? Talent? Skill? Discipline?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we're looking at some of the more surprising ingredients of successful teams, according to science. Teams where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

You'll hear the story of the Kon-Tiki expedition—a harrowing journey across the Pacific Ocean led by Norwegian explorer Thor Heyerdahl. A journey made by a small band of adventurers who set out to understand ancient human migration. They were young. Most were inexperienced. But they had enthusiasm, a range of talents and personalities, camaraderie, and a clear and vivid goal. You'll hear from Liv Hukset Wang from the Kon-Tiki Museum in Oslo, who works with Heyerdahl's grandchildren to keep his legacy alive.

Then, Katy speaks with University College London professor Colin Fisher about his new book on team synergy. You'll hear his recipe for building teams that excel and his tips for avoiding the pitfalls of social loafing.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be and The Collective Edge Unlocking The Secret Power of Groups are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We've all been there. Maybe you fumbled a line in a presentation. Or tripped on a shoelace. Or suffered a bad hair day. It can feel like the whole world is watching you—and judging you—in those embarrassing moments. But are people paying as much attention to you as you think?

In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman, we explore why we tend to blow our own missteps out of proportion.

We go behind the scenes of some of the most consequential speeches of World War II. Speeches given by a man who was consumed with fear about how his stutter would be received by the public. Author and historian Adrian Phillips gives us new insights about King George VI's struggles with his diction and the effect his addresses had on the people of Great Britain during the darkest days of the war.

We also hear from Seth Tichenor, an assistant professor and program director at the Duquesne University Stuttering Clinic, who helps us understand what it's like to navigate a public role with a stutter.

Finally, Katy speaks with Cornell psychologist Tom Gilovich about how he and his fellow researchers demonstrated that—more often than not—our mistakes and foibles barely register with those around us.

Choiceology is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit https://www.schwab.com/podcast.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, The King Who Had to Go, From Churchill to Eden , The Wisest One in the Room and How We Know What Isn't So are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about its content.

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Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.