Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

Would you lay the Cowboys at -200 after they closed -340 against the Cardinals? We break down a viral take on heavy favorites, what professional bettors actually do when the price gets that steep, and why it's the kind of betting advice you should never follow. We also react to NFL Week 8, get into Saquon Barkley selling his stake in a prediction market, and run through the rest of the weekend: F1, Beat Luke Littler, the WNBA Finals finishes, Kucherov's trade request, and Indiana vs Minnesota ending with two 60 yard field goals. Then we read comments from last week's show, cover an online fight between Haralabob and Kent Lacob over the Valkyries and CD Castellon, and close with the Chopping Block.

Streamed live with host Jacob Gramegna and guests Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/

FOLLOW

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🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola

🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17

OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

1:56 - Do Pros Bet -200s?

26:24 - NFL Week 8 Reaction

40:48 - Other Weekend Recap

52:44 - Saquon Barkley Sells Stake

1:00:36 - Comments From Last Week

1:15:58 - Haralabob vs Kent Lacob

1:27:46 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#CircleBack #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #NFLWeek8 #SaquonBarkley #PredictionMarkets #CowboysCardinals #BettingAdvice #CirclesOff #ProphetX

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Why is right now the golden age of same game parlays? Professional bettor and trader Rishi breaks down how he finds correlated outcomes with nothing but game knowledge and no model, why prices on prediction markets are beating what he sees at sportsbooks, and what the new NBA prop unders mean for his approach. Plus, the Thursday Night Football position he took when Christian Watson went to the hospital, the Bermuda Championship cancellation that cost a market maker $185K, viewer mailbag questions, what grinds our gears, and the +EV moves of the week. This is Off Script hosted by Jacob Gramegna and presented by ProphetX.

🎥 Watch Rishi's earlier interview with Rob: https://youtu.be/0bvC0KjTr1E

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

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SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

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FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

16:14 - Breaking News: Thursday Night Football

26:50 - Breaking News: Bermuda Championship

37:26 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

45:52 - What Grinds My Gears

52:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SameGameParlays #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #NBAProps #OffScript

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China breaks down a NASCAR edge from a time when betting meant calling in plays on a recorded line and almost nobody had an odds screen. It was a loophole built on how one bookie priced the races, and it turned into one of the best spots of his betting career.

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with China to talk about what betting looked like before line movement was a thing and how that edge shaped the way he thinks about betting.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

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📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#LegendaryLoopholes #NASCAR #SportsBetting #BetBash #CirclesOff

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One of the most shocking weeks of NFL survivor carnage, led by the Texans' overtime loss to the Giants, plus NFL Week 7 reactions and the rest of the weekend recap, including the World Series Game 2 check swing that may have been the wrong call. We react to Raheem Palmer's take on middling NFL games and whether risking 10 cents to win 2 dollars is worth it, go through your comments from last week's show, break down a viral post from a bettor who is down about a DoorDash lunch after 7 years of betting, cover Dr. Jesse Morse retiring from NFL injury analysis and Rob's plan to start his own version, and close with the Chopping Block. Live with Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

3:00 - NFL Week 7 Reactions + NFL Survivor Carnage

25:33 - World Series Game 2 Check Swing

34:01 - Is Middling Worth It?

43:35 - Reading Your Comments

1:00:16 - Down A DoorDash Lunch After 7 Years Of Betting

1:08:29 - Dr. Jesse Morse Retires From NFL Injury Analysis

1:15:28 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#CircleBack #NFL #NFLSurvivor #SportsBetting #WorldSeries #Middling #SurvivorPool

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Peanut breaks down how he rebuilt his NBA player prop model from the ground up into an automated dashboard, what changed from the old manual process, and how he decides which assumptions to adjust when a player's role or shot profile changes. He also explains the futures and awards model he's building, how to account for voter behavior, and the early season question every NBA bettor faces: how much to react to a team's first ten games, how to tell a real change from noise, and how to read rookies and later picks who start hot.

The mailbag covers whether the link between defensive RAPM, height and assist rate is a real effect, Peanut's biggest betting mistake and how it changed his process, and political debate hypotheticals. The episode closes with What Grinds My Gears, from fourth down analytics to touts who reset every season, and the +EV Moves Of The Week. Jacob Gramegna is joined by Peanut, a pro sports bettor, for this episode of Off Script.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

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SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

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FOLLOW

🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna

🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/peanut_bettor

OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

17:47 - Early-Season Overreactions

21:14 - Rookies And New Faces

26:10 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

37:04 - What Grinds My Gears

45:58 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#NBABetting #NBAProps #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #OffScript

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Most same game parlays lose because bettors stack two good legs that have nothing to do with each other. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, full time NBA bettor Calvin breaks down the same game parlay that paid +4000 when some sportsbooks priced a rookie center's blocks and double double as if they were unrelated, and shows how to find correlation the market hasn't accounted for.

Calvin walks through the Portland Trail Blazers' Donovan Clingan, his foul trouble, and why four blocks means four contested shots with no foul, which means more minutes. He explains how some books simulated that correctly while others just added a tax, what he'd do differently today, including laddering the legs, and how to check whether a correlation is real before you bet it. Hosted by Jacob Gramegna.

🎥 Watch Calvin's full interview: https://youtu.be/x50poL3Uv-A

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

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SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SameGameParlay #SGP #NBABetting #SportsBetting #LegendaryLoopholes

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A Grandissimo entry worth an estimated $513,333 never got its Week 6 pick in, and the player says his proxy forgot to submit it. That left 14 entries chasing the $7.7 million winner-take-all prize, and then the Rams lost to the Cardinals and the Colts fell to the Titans, wiping out more than half of the Survivor field. Over 1,600 of 2,908 entries were gone in a single Sunday.

We also ask whether LA is a fraud, break down Cam Skattebo seeing zero touches after his fourth fumble, and dig into the NBA and sportsbooks agreeing to ban same-player under parlays, "first of" markets, and unders on low-minute players. Plus a bettor who says he got stiffed on a wager and a pick seller's bonus bet mix-up. Live with Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/

SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/

FOLLOW

🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

1:44 - Grandissimo Entry Misses Deadline

18:55 - Survivor Carnage and Rams Fraud Watch

32:18 - Skattebo Gets Zero Touches

41:17 - Bettor Says He Got Stiffed on a Wager

1:00:04 - NBA Bans Same-Player Under Parlays and "First Of" Bets

1:10:26 - Pick Seller and the Bonus Bet Mix-Up

1:17:01 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#CircleBack #NFLSurvivor #Grandissimo #SurvivorPool #NFL #LARams #CamSkattebo #NBA #NBABetting #PlayerProps #SportsBetting #SportsBettingNews

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How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverage types help him find mispriced player props, walks through correlated same game parlay reads, and covers how AI cuts his research time. Plus, how he reacts when a line moves against him, why he thinks top-down betting is drying up and pushing people toward originating, and answers to your mailbag questions on a long shot future, balancing life with the NBA grind, and how he reads questionable tags.

Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Off Script with Pips NBA, a professional NBA bettor from Croatia and former co-host of The Hammer's NBA channel. They also get into what grinds their gears this week and close with their +EV Moves Of The Week.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📺 dlee4three's 30 Teams in 30 Days: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvCmCplxXUcXuDh6pJSxMzA

🎙️ Calvin and Hobo interview: https://youtu.be/x50poL3Uv-A

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/

SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/

FOLLOW

🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna

🔵 Follow Pips NBA - https://x.com/PipsNBA

OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

12:58 - When Lines Move Against You

16:31 - The Future of Top-Down Betting

23:25 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

33:41 - What Grinds My Gears

40:00 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #NBAProps #OffScript

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Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.

Line data: Betstamp (Rob is a co-owner). NFL scores and historical closing lines: nflverse.

🟠 Track your bets and your CLV with Juice Reel, our network's bet tracking partner: [Juice Reel link]

🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The CLV Trophy

1:30 - PART 1: What Closing Line Value Actually Is

2:30 - Mistake 1: The Number Without the Price

3:15 - Mistake 2: Not Enough to Matter

4:25 - Why Raw Points Don't Work

5:19 - How Much You Beat It By (76,742 Bets)

7:37 - Why Good Bets Still Lose

9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX

10:09 - PART 2: Is the Market Still Sharp?

12:29 - The Line Gets Sharper Through the Week

15:36 - PART 3: Fade or Follow the Big Moves?

19:21 - 261 Ways to Cut It

20:51 - The Moves Were Right

22:49 - What to Actually Do

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#ClosingLineValue #CLV #SportsBetting #NFL #CollegeFootball #BettingEducation

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Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week's plus EV moves.

Isaac Rose-Berman, a sharp sports bettor and responsible gaming advocate, joins Jacob Gramegna on Off Script to share how he's using AI to enhance his betting and trading.

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📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

14:02 - Breaking News: NFL Asks Supreme Court To Review Prediction Market Case

21:33 - Mailbag: Your AI Questions

29:29 - What Grinds My Gears

36:35 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #AI #PredictionMarkets #SportsTrading #AIBetting

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Sharp bettor Thon Misser breaks down the MLB same game parlay angle that kickstarted his betting career: a pricing bug that turned round number totals into a free half run. He explains how adding any second leg to an over 6 moved the price to over 6.5, why he paired it with an under on triples from hitters who almost never get one, how it played out until a couple of unlucky days and a burned account, and what he would do differently today.

This is Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, the series where sharp bettors share the unique edges from their past so you can apply the same thinking to your own betting. Jacob Gramegna sits down with Thon at BetBash to talk about why this kind of angle is out there for anyone willing to click around, and what every bettor can learn from it.

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #MLB #SGP #SameGameParlay #BettingEdge

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Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take those exact deals. From there, we jump into a wild NFL Week 4, unpacking the Patriots shocking the Bills and what Lamar Jackson's ankle injury means moving forward. We also react to that viral post raising alarms over high school students and gambling, before tackling a classic debate: is winning a survivor contest actually skill, or is it pure luck? Plus, Matt Kalish quietly deletes months of prediction market posts after relentless heat, and Sydney Sweeney makes waves by securing an equity deal with a prediction market platform.

Join Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg live as they dig into the biggest stories in sports betting and prediction markets this week.

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

2:37 - NFL Week 4

28:28 - Joey Knish on Survivor Contest Winners

43:07 - Matt Kalish Deletes His Prediction Market Posts

51:41 - Wembanyama Rejects Betting Endorsements

1:03:18 - Viral Post on High School Gambling

1:11:07 - Sydney Sweeney's Equity Deal

1:18:41 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFL #Wembanyama

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Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens.

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The Trend

1:10 - Why Most Trends Are Noise

2:06 - Is There A Real Reason?

3:08 - Rebuild It Yourself

4:47 - Find The Right Comparison

7:09 - Look Past The Win/Loss Record

10:26 - Test The Explanation

12:54 - How Many Other Trends Are There?

14:40 - Is The Market Already On It?

17:09 - Sponsored by ProphetX

18:35 - What I Think About This One

19:26 - What To Do Next Time

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

Trading sports event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial circumstances. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Full risk disclosure available at prophetx.co/risk.

#NFL #ThursdayNightFootball #SportsBetting #BettingTrends #AgainstTheSpread

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NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regular season wrapping up and the postseason field taking shape.

On the industry side, a federal appeals court dealt a major blow to prediction markets, ruling that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate sports-event contracts under state gambling law, a decision that deepens a growing circuit split likely headed for the Supreme Court. A new investigation also revealed how one major sportsbook's VIP program rewarded a reporter posing as a problem gambler, inviting him into their VIP program within 24 hours of a night spent chasing losses. And in Brazil, the president signed a measure banning sports betting deposits and advertising days before the country's election, prompting backlash from top football clubs who rely on betting sponsorships.

Plus, a look at using betting partners to get comfortable with bigger bet sizes, and the Chopping Block. Jacob is joined by Rob, Geoff, and Isaac Rose-Berman, in studio this week, to break it all down.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Isaac Rose-Berman

2:26 - NFL Week 3

19:50 - Other Weekend Recap

30:31 - Prediction Markets Lose In Ohio

40:19 - Sportsbook VIP Exposé

50:39 - Reading Your Comments

1:05:19 - Using Betting Partners To Scale Up

1:10:47 - Brazil Bans Betting

1:22:51 - Who Actually Bought GRP's Survivor Entry?

1:33:24 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #PredictionMarkets #NFLWeek3 #ResponsibleGaming #Ohio #Brazil #PresidentsCup

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Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets get used, from pricing futures to gauging elections.

Plus a mailbag stacked with viewer questions, this week's Grinds My Gears rants, and the usual EV Moves of the Week to close things out.

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

10:56 - Breaking News

20:14 - Mailbag: Your Questions

28:46 - What Grinds My Gears

34:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #OffScript #KawhiLeonard #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets

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Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers can see who they're trading against.

Recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Chris Dierkes, Pro Sports Bettor and Trader, for a look at the other side of the counter on prediction markets, and why Flup thinks rebate and volume incentive deals should be posted publicly.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #MarketMaking #CirclesOff #BetBash

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NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's being called the biggest UFC upset ever, then run through Chopping Block quick hits including the Off Script debut and a comedy tier list.

Jacob Gramegna hosts today's Circle Back and is joined by Rob Pizzola, CEO of The Hammer and pro sports bettor, and Jason Cooper, host of The Hammer Daily, to break it all down.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper

1:19 - NFL Week 2

28:46 - Other Weekend Recap

40:28 - Sportsbooks Using AI To Target Losers?

50:26 - NFL Bans Prediction Markets

55:26 - "Just Bet -124s That Are -800 Everywhere Else"

1:30:40 - Is +EV Overrated?

1:17:51 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFLWeek2 #UFC #PlusEV

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A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins Jacob Gramegna for the very first episode of Off Script to break down algorithmic decision-making versus human intuition using live betting, prediction markets, and expected value examples. They then move into two major current events: the proposed repeal of the 90% gambling loss deduction cap, and the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and MLS's new push for permanent bans on bettors who threaten athletes and their families. Plus viewer questions on odds screens, AI's impact on sharp bettors, and this week's plus EV move of the week.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/

SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

11:34 - 90% Loss Cap Repeal

16:38 - Major Sports Leagues Crack Down On Harassment

23:11 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

30:44 - What Grinds My Gears

35:56 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #OffScript #CirclesOff #CollegeFootball #CFPPlayoff #ExpectedValue #SportsBettingPodcast

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The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker at all.

Pro sports bettor and trader Porter of BA Analytics joins Circles Off to break down what the proposal actually changes, why the fee and positioning rules matter more than they might look on paper, and what tighter competition among market makers could mean for pricing and liquidity on these markets going forward.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#CFTC #PredictionMarkets #MarketMaking #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #BettingIndustry #SportsBettingNews #BettingRegulation

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The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney has sparked its own conversation about how brands are approaching this space.

Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg, part of the Circles Off lineup from The Hammer Betting Network. Circle Back airs weekly, breaking down the biggest stories in sports betting, prediction markets, and the NFL with sharp analysis and no shortage of debate.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/

SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

1:32 - NFL Week 1 Recap

7:35 - Survivor Chaos, Chargers lose

22:27 - LA Rams Reality Check

35:41 - U.S. Open + Texas Comeback vs. Ohio State

45:55 - Is The NFL Admitting Defeat To Prediction Markets?

52:27 - Sydney Sweeney's Prediction Market Ad Campaign

1:06:59 - Odds Logic's Poorly Timed Price Increase

1:16:18 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #NFL #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #NFLWeek1 #LARams #49ers #RogerGoodell #ProphetX

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