Current Account with Clay Lowery

A surprising comeback has given President Lula a historic fourth term, but governing Brazil may prove more difficult than winning the election. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Christopher Garman, Managing Director for the Americas at Eurasia Group, to unpack what drove Lula’s victory and what comes next.

They discuss the fiscal and economic challenges facing the new administration, the future of Brazil’s political right, and what investors will be watching as Lula begins another term. The conversation also looks beyond Brazil’s borders, exploring the country’s growing importance in energy, critical minerals, agriculture, and global trade, as well as how Lula may navigate relationships with the United States, China, and other major partners.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, and managed by Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

France is facing a pivotal moment as political gridlock, mounting fiscal pressures, and public unrest converge ahead of next year’s presidential election. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Guillaume de Calignon, an international economics journalist at Les Echos, to unpack the forces driving France’s political and economic uncertainty.

They discuss the roots of the country’s recent protests, the erosion of France’s political center and the challenges facing the next government as it confronts weak growth, high debt and persistent deficits. The conversation also examines what the presidential election could mean for France’s economic direction and how domestic political challenges could reshape the country’s influence within Europe.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, and managed by Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

From artificial intelligence to sovereign debt and defense finance, a wide range of risks and opportunities dominated discussions in Bangkok. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Brad Carr, Executive for Geopolitical Risk at National Australia Bank, to reflect on the major themes emerging from the 2026 IIF Annual Membership Meeting and IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings.

They explore the growing implications of AI competition and AI-enabled cyber risks, rising bond yields and fiscal pressures in developed economies, and the expanding role of private capital in financing defense and resilience. The conversation also examines how businesses and governments can adapt to geopolitical disruption by strengthening supply chains, infrastructure, and economic resilience in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As global financial leaders gather in Bangkok, attention is turning to the opportunities and challenges shaping Thailand and Southeast Asia. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Randy Thanthong-Knight, Bangkok Bureau Chief at Bloomberg News, to preview the conversations surrounding the IIF Annual Membership Meeting and IMF-World Bank meetings.

They explore Thailand’s challenge of generating stronger growth despite a more resilient financial system, the region’s growing importance in global supply chains, and the investment opportunities emerging from EVs, semiconductors, AI, and infrastructure. The conversation also examines how Southeast Asian economies are navigating U.S.-China competition and whether Thailand can capitalize on shifting trade and investment patterns while moving toward its next stage of economic development.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

With the U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, control of Congress hangs in the balance amid growing voter frustration over the economy, affordability, and the direction of the country. In this episode of Current Account, Clay Lowery is joined by Amy Walter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Cook Report with Amy Walter, to assess the political landscape ahead of Election Day.

They discuss whether Democrats are positioned to retake the House and Senate, the issues that are resonating most with voters, and why concerns about government dysfunction and corruption have become central campaign themes. The conversation also explores what divided government could mean for President Trump's policy agenda and what the election results may reveal about the trajectory of American politics heading into 2028.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As the world’s two largest economies navigate an increasingly complex relationship, the second 2026 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week offered a fresh window into the future of competition and cooperation between Washington and Beijing.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Paul Haenle, Managing Director and Head of APAC Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics; Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow at New America and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); and Logan Wright, Partner and Head of China Markets Research at Rhodium Group and author of the new book Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What it Means for the World, to assess what emerged from the summit.

Together, they explore the extension of the trade truce, the beginnings of an AI safety dialogue, the evolving economic balance between the two countries, and the deeper strategic tensions shaping the relationship, while also assessing whether recent stabilization efforts can endure future shocks amid persistent frictions over Taiwan, technology competition, and domestic political pressures.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Defense finance is rapidly moving from a niche policy topic to a central challenge for governments, investors, and financial institutions. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Wendy Gilmour, Vice Chair of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute and former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment, and Jakub Karnowski, CEO of KredoBank, to explore how countries are financing a new era of defense and security investment.

They discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, growing NATO spending commitments, and the role private capital can play in expanding defense capabilities, industrial capacity, and critical infrastructure. The conversation also examines what makes defense investments bankable and what a successful partnership between governments, industry, and financial markets could look like in the years ahead.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

The relationship between the United States and Canada has long been defined by deep economic ties, shared security interests, and highly integrated supply chains. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Michael von Herff, Founder and Managing Partner of PAA Advisory, to examine the recent escalation in trade tensions between the two countries.

They discuss how a cycle of tariffs and retaliatory measures has transformed a trade dispute into a broader debate about economic leverage, sovereignty, and national strategy. The conversation explores Canada's response to growing pressure from its largest trading partner, the potential implications for defense and industrial policy, and whether this moment represents a temporary disruption or a more lasting shift in the U.S.-Canada relationship.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As markets return from the summer with a series of surprises, investors are grappling with a changing economic landscape. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director at the IIF, to unpack three of the biggest stories shaping global markets: rising long-term bond yields, the joint U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen, and the key messages emerging from this year’s Jackson Hole conference. They explore what these developments reveal about the evolving cost of capital, why higher borrowing costs matter beyond financial markets, and how central banks, governments, and investors are adapting to a world of stronger investment demand and growing competition for resources.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Can regulators promote growth and competitiveness while preserving financial stability? In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Kyle Grieser, Director, Regulatory Affairs, and Miguel Lobo, Policy Advisor, to examine two major developments shaping the future of banking regulation: the ongoing implementation of Basel III and the European Commission’s new banking competitiveness agenda.

They discuss how post-crisis reforms have strengthened the banking sector, why policymakers are increasingly focused on regulatory simplification and modernization, and what the latest proposals could mean for banks in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. The conversation also explores whether global regulators are finally approaching the end of the Basel III process and what comes next for cross-border regulatory alignment and growth.

Programming note — Current Account will return in September after a summer break.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As geopolitical tensions reshape security priorities across the Atlantic, defense has become an increasingly important economic and financial issue. In this episode of Current Account, Clay Lowery is joined by Dr. Torrey Taussig, Director of and a Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, to unpack the outcomes of the recent NATO Summit in Ankara and what they reveal about the future of the alliance.

They discuss growing pressure on European allies to increase defense spending, questions surrounding U.S. leadership and commitment to NATO, and how governments are translating new funding pledges into real military capabilities. The conversation also explores the role of private capital in supporting defense investment, the lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, and the challenges facing NATO as it navigates an increasingly uncertain security environment.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

The conflict involving Iran has entered another period of uncertainty, with diplomatic efforts faltering and regional tensions rising once again. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Hal Brands, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, to assess the latest developments and what they could mean for the Middle East and beyond.

They discuss the collapse of recent diplomatic agreements, the strategic objectives of the key parties involved, and how Gulf states are balancing security concerns with efforts to prevent further escalation. The conversation also explores the implications for NATO, global energy markets, and the range of scenarios policymakers and investors should be watching in the weeks ahead.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As frontier AI models become more powerful, concerns about cybersecurity risks are moving to the forefront of policy and business discussions. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Martin Boer, General Manager and Chief Representative for Europe at the IIF, to examine how advances in AI could reshape the cyber threat landscape.

They discuss why security experts are paying close attention to the latest generation of AI systems, how financial institutions are preparing for emerging risks, and whether regulators and standard setters can keep pace with the speed of innovation. The conversation also explores the growing debate over AI governance and what future legislation could mean for innovation, competition, and financial stability.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate, and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Trade policy is back at the center of the economic conversation. In this episode of Current Account, Clay examines a series of major developments that could reshape the U.S. trade landscape in the months ahead. He breaks down the administration’s efforts to rebuild broad tariff authority following February's Supreme Court ruling, the growing role of Section 301, Section 122, and Section 232 trade authorities, and what upcoming deadlines could mean for businesses and global markets. Clay also explores the latest uncertainty surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) after the United States declined to renew the pact for another 16-year term. The discussion offers a practical look at where trade negotiations stand and why tariffs are likely to remain a defining feature of U.S. economic policy.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

A new era at the Federal Reserve is underway. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Chief Economist at PwC, to examine what leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could mean for U.S. monetary policy and global markets.

As the Fed prepares for its first meeting under new leadership, they explore competing pressures around interest rates, inflation, and political influence, as well as Warsh’s potential push to reshape the Fed’s framework. The conversation also looks at how investors should interpret a more uncertain policy outlook and what shifts in the Fed’s approach could mean for capital flows, the dollar, and financial stability worldwide.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Latin America is entering a pivotal election cycle with major implications for policy, markets, and geopolitics. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Martín Castellano, Head of Latin America Research, and Paola Figueroa, Head of Frontier Latin America Research, to break down key races in Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. They explore what recent results reveal about political fragmentation, governability, and investor confidence, and assess how domestic pressures are shaping outcomes. The conversation also looks beyond individual elections to examine how the region’s shifting political landscape could influence relationships with the United States and broader global markets in the months ahead.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

How has banking fundamentally changed over the past decade? In this episode of Current Account, Clay sits down with Christiana Riley, CEO and President of Santander U.S., to reflect on the forces reshaping financial services over the past decade. They explore how banks have adapted to a more volatile environment shaped by higher interest rates, geopolitical tension, and rapid technological change.

The conversation examines growing competition from fintech and private capital, shifting expectations around growth and risk, and how global banks are positioning themselves across both established and emerging markets. Looking ahead, they discuss what will define success for financial institutions over the next decade and how leadership priorities are evolving in a more complex landscape.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures.

They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

As U.S. and Chinese leaders meet in Beijing, the future of the world’s most important economic relationship hangs in the balance. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Evan Medeiros, a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and former director at the White House National Security Council, to assess what is at stake in the latest round of talks and what each side hopes to achieve.

They explore the evolving sources of leverage on both sides, from trade and investment to critical minerals and advanced technologies, and examine the gap between leader level diplomacy and a deeper structural rivalry. The conversation also looks at how domestic politics may constrain any deal and what a more stable U.S.-China relationship could realistically look like in the years ahead.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Stephen Myrow, Managing Partner of Beacon Policy Advisors, to take stock of where the U.S. midterm elections stand six months out - and why they matter far beyond Washington. They discuss why the House has emerged as the central battleground, how the Senate map has quietly become more competitive, and what a potential shift in control could mean for policy, regulation, and executive authority.

The political landscape looks very different than it did just six months ago. Clay and Stephen discuss how slipping presidential approval ratings, aggressive redistricting battles, and the fallout from an unpopular war are reshaping the midterm map in real time. They explore why outcomes once considered unlikely are now firmly in play, and what the evolving election dynamics could mean for investors, financial institutions, and international partners. The question is no longer just who wins in November, but how Washington governs the day after.

This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.