Dumb Money Live

AI is running into a problem even the most powerful chips can't solve: not enough electricity. The power shortage is real. Today on Dumb Money: Are AI energy stocks the biggest investment opportunity of the decade… or has Wall Street already priced in the future?

Yesterday, Wall Street got two very different answers to the same question. How much is AI's electricity problem actually worth? Vertiv reported revenue growth of 61%, orders more than doubled, and its stock jumped 16%. Meanwhile, GE Vernova reported $29 billion in orders, a backlog of $197 billion. They raised their guidance, and that stock went down. Bloom Energy, after getting crushed 20% in two days last week, was back up 18% in three days.

AI has a problem that even the world's most powerful chips can't solve. Not enough electricity. Morgan Stanley now estimating AI global technology power shortfall of 38 gigawatts through 2028. That's roughly the output of 38 large nuclear reactors that just don't exist. The big question: who's gonna actually make money solving the electricity problem?

Today on Dumb Money, the AI energy bubble. Is it one of the greatest investment opportunities of the last decade or is it a trap?

We break down why Chris is loading up on even more Bloom Energy along with Amazon (reporting after hours tonight), the circular financing argument that Jon Stewart and Ed Zitron are pushing (and why it's spectacularly wrong), why AI succeeding spectacularly is actually threatening Google's search revenue (Chris called this a year ago and got roasted), the AI mode problem that's killing traditional search monetization, why Reddit is sitting on the most valuable data licensing deals that are coming up for renewal mid 2027 (Google's $60M deal and OpenAI's $70M deal are jokes that should be billions), the Amazon earnings trade tonight and why Chris is deleveraging live during this episode (CapEx guidance could crush the stock even if everything else is perfect), why the market has never been dumber and you cannot trust it to react rationally to anything right now, the Bloom Energy thesis and what would actually make Chris sell (if they can't scale deployments with hyperscalers, he's out), why having an energy basket right now makes sense (Vistra, Constellation, GE Vernova alongside Bloom), the multi-decade power purchasing agreements that prove someone is spectacularly wrong about AI being a bubble, the Take Two and GTA 6 narrative shift (democratized game development through AI is now the bigger threat than whether the game is a hit), why Chris trimmed 75% of his Take Two position when the thesis changed, Tesla Model Y full self driving and why Chris just bought two Teslas after one demo drive in Dallas rush hour traffic, and the Theranos documentary that Chris has seen twice and is the movie event of the year.

If you're trying to figure out who actually wins when AI needs 38 nuclear reactors worth of power that don't exist, this is the edge.

Chapters:

Chapters

• 00:00:00 Intro: AI energy bubble - biggest opportunity or biggest trap?
• 00:01:48 Everyone is an imbecile: The Jon Stewart AI denial problem
• 00:06:48 The circular financing myth and why AI adoption takes time
• 00:11:17 Google's AI mode problem: Success that threatens their business
• 00:14:52 Amazon's agentic shopping dilemma and why Chris is all in
• 00:21:24 The CapEx fear cycle and why investors don't trust CEOs anymore
• 00:32:59 The AI energy trade: Bloom, Constellation, Vistra and the power play
• 00:35:40 Bloom Energy: The misunderstood technology company everyone doubts
• 00:45:53 Reddit's data gold mine and the AI licensing renegotiation coming in 2026
• 00:59:22 Take-Two reality check: Why Chris sold 75 percent of his position
• 01:07:26 Amazon earnings anxiety: Deleveraging live and the market irrationality problem
• 01:22:28 Tesla FSD conversion: Dave's full self-drive revelation and the two Model Y purchase

AI has spent years learning from everything humans put online. What happens when the best human-generated data starts running out? Today on Dumb Money, we reveal our trade.

Claude is now doing 26% of Anthropic's own research. That's up from under 1% back in February. Thirty thousand AI agents all running experiments, writing code, building the next Claude. But here's the problem: every AI lab is training on the same internet, the same threads, the same answers. And that internet is now flooded with AI slop.

Models are training on models. It's a photocopy of a photocopy, and every generation gets a little blurrier. The labs are desperate for the one thing that money can't print: fresh, original human thought. Real people arguing, reviewing, coding, explaining why they believe something. And there's a finite amount of it.

Ten days ago, a federal judge told one AI lab that it can't just scrape for free anymore. The pile of human arguments just got a legal price tag.

Today on Dumb Money, AI is running out of human data. Here's the trade.

We break down why Reddit is sitting on perhaps the largest pile of human arguments on the internet (and why Chris is building a position), the data advantage that makes Reddit different from every other platform (real humans arguing about everything from credit card points to lawn care), why Google owns the best data with YouTube and Gmail but nobody else has Reddit's permission layer, the licensing deals that are coming and why renewal rates will explode, the arbitrage trade nobody's watching (if Reddit gets acquired or announces a major licensing deal, Yelp and Shutterstock will pop in the window), why Meta's Reddit competitor is DOA (they've already failed this with Threads), the 5% content surge last quarter (all the content ever written on Reddit, 5% happened in 90 days), why X and TikTok matter but Reddit is broader and deeper, the Stack Overflow comp and why it's too niche, Chris and Jordan's full meltdown debate on whether kids should use AI in school or stick with pencil and paper (this one got heated), why agentic AI is the biggest uncertainty Chris has faced in decades of investing (and why he's pulling back leverage), the Amazon trade and whether agentic shopping kills the advertising layer or just makes AWS bigger, Project Moonraker and Amazon's internal Muse competitor, why Chris has four different AI agents reading his email right now and can't remember which one he talked to, and why this market is more confusing than anything since COVID.

If you're trying to figure out where the value sits when AI runs out of human data, this is the edge.

Meta's Muse went viral over the weekend, and on Monday, Wall Street woke up. Meta jumped 11% in a single day, nearly $200 billion in market cap, because of a chatbot with a plush toy mascot. Three firms jacked their price targets this week. But the stock's already moved. The easy money is gone.

The real question isn't about Meta anymore. It's about who gets paid when millions of people talk to Muse every day. Those conversations burn serious compute, and a whole lot of it happens on somebody else's computer.

Today on Dumb Money, Meta's Muse just changed the AI trade. Here's what we're buying.

We break down the Meta trade Chris hit on Friday before the market closed (and quadrupled Monday morning for one of his biggest seven figure one day wins ever), why Amazon is the real winner here (they're powering Muse's virtual machines through their Graviton chip deal and AWS Bedrock), why Amazon blocking Muse from shopping is temporary and how the monetization deals will eventually get done, the $30 to $60 in compute Meta is giving away per user per day (and why Zuck doesn't care), why distribution is everything (Meta will push Muse to billions of people whether they want it or not), the use cases going viral in every group chat and dinner conversation (credit card fraud detection, subscription cancellations, AT&T bill negotiations), why this is the biggest normie moment for agentic AI we've ever seen (way bigger than Claude or ChatGPT for regular people), the privacy tradeoff most people will make (80% will give up privacy if it improves their life), why Apple's absence here is one of their biggest misses ever (imagine this running locally on your iPhone), the secondary plays in AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm as CPU demand explodes, why Opus 5.5 dropped this week and the market still doesn't understand that efficiency creates more use cases (not less infrastructure demand), the coming data and distribution episode next week, and why video AI is about to suck up massive compute.

If you're trying to figure out where the AI trade is actually headed and what to buy right now, this is the edge.

Chapters:

Chapters

• 00:00:00 Intro: Muse takes over the internet and Meta rockets 11% in one day
• 00:01:38 Chris's highway chaos and the technical difficulties begin
• 00:02:49 Muse blew my mind: The weekend that changed everything
• 00:07:45 Distribution is everything: Why Meta will dominate agentic AI
• 00:08:39 Apple's massive miss and why Google has no answer
• 00:09:46 The Amazon block: Commerce wars and the $80 billion ad problem
• 00:11:58 The real trade: Why Chris is all-in on Amazon, not Meta
• 00:12:35 Compute costs $30-60 per day and Meta needs to monetize
• 00:14:29 Use cases going viral: Normies bragging about saving money and finding fraud
• 00:33:56 Secondary trades: AMD, Intel, Qualcomm and the CPU explosion
• 00:37:34 Opus 5.5 drops and the market completely misses the point
• 00:42:52 Amazon advertising debate: Will bots kill the $80B business or create bot-to-bot ads?
• 00:47:05 Next week's trade: When the internet runs out of human thought
• 00:47:33 Data and distribution: The only two things that matter in AI investing
• 00:48:45 Giggly Squad sold for $140M with terrible audio and final thoughts

GPT-6 Astra could change the AI trade in ways Wall Street isn’t ready for. Today on Dumb Money, are you in the wrong AI stocks?

Tesla’s Cybercab is finally on the streets with no steering wheel, no pedals and nobody behind the wheel. The launch left investors with plenty of unanswered questions, but the robotaxi itself is suddenly very real.

Today on Dumb Money: Tesla’s Robotaxi Is Finally Real—Now What Happens to $TSLA?

Today on Dumb Money, one of our favorite trade genres seems to be back.

Everyone knows GTA 6 will be massive. TTWO's already priced for it. Is "massive" enough?

Is SpaceX about to mint a new generation of millionaires with its long-awaited IPO, or will investors get burned in one of the most hyped public debuts ever? Today on Dumb Money, how we're playing the SpaceX IPO.

Today on Dumb Money, we break down the Caesar wrap that seems to have taken over the internet and why we think it could be signaling something much bigger for the stock behind it. Is this just another viral food trend, or the beginning of a consumer trade Wall Street still doesn’t fully understand?

Today on Dumb Money, one of YouTube’s biggest real estate bulls just made a move nobody expected... he’s selling it all. What does Graham Stephan see that everyone else is missing?

Today on Dumb Money, preparing our trades for when the war ends.

Today on Dumb Money, a pure social arb trade revealed. The small public company behind a massive trend and #1 best seller on Amazon.

Today on Dumb Money, is the AI bull case actually macro bearish? We break down the “Intelligence Spiral” thesis — how unstoppable AI could crush white-collar wages, hollow out consumer demand, and trigger a 2028 financial crisis.

Big Tech just had one of its worst weeks in years. Earnings were mixed, expectations were impossible, and the market punished everyone from AI spenders to chipmakers to SaaS. Today on Dumb Money: Our Worst Market Week Ever — How We Make It Back x2

Meta beat. Microsoft missed. The reactions were extreme.

Today on Dumb Money, we look past the headlines and focus on what Big Tech earnings are actually telling us — especially around cloud usage and AI-driven compute demand.

With Amazon reporting next, we dig into AWS trends and what a reported $50B commitment tied to OpenAI could mean going forward.

Why Amazon earnings matter most right now.

Today on Dumb Money, the company that quietly dominated the holidays.

The AI trade most people are focused on is infrastructure. Chips. Data centers. Power. We think the more interesting opportunity is what comes next when AI quietly absorbs work and productivity shows up in earnings instead of headlines. Today on Dumb Money, we break down how to think about the real AI trade heading into 2026, where to look beyond the obvious names, and what actually matters once AI stops being a novelty and starts being normal.

AI isn't running out of GPUs… it's running out of power. Today on Dumb Money, the overlooked AI energy supplier that could be one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market.

Today on Dumb Money, our trade setup after $NVDA earnings.

Today on Dumb Money, we're making moves in anticipation of the upcoming big tech earnings reports. After the market closes on Wednesday, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta will release their earnings reports. Then on Thursday, it's Apple and Amazon's turn.