Podcast
Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast
Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix — alongside his golden retriever Winston — interprets the economy and markets.
- Episodes
- 624
- Releases
- Daily
- Typical length
- 23 min
- On air since
- 2023
- Latest episode
- 2 days ago
Episodes
624 episodes, newest first
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24 min
How A Possible Iran Peace Deal Could Hit Oil And Your Portfolio
Show notes
War headlines scream chaos while markets quietly price the exit, and we walk through why stocks can rise even as oil spikes and households feel the squeeze. We lay out a clear, two-scenario plan so you can protect your portfolio if talks fail and still benefit if a peace deal lands.
• the market’s forward-looking logic and why wars can stop moving prices before they stop on the ground
• how oil feeds headline inflation, Fed decisions, Treasury yields, and mortgage rates
• why panic selling, sitting in cash, and buying gold “for safety” can all backfire at once
• what sector rotation looks like when leadership shifts out of last cycle’s winners
• the June “rehearsal” that shows how peace hits oil, energy stocks, and risk appetite
• a practical framework for positioning around cheap-oil versus expensive-oil outcomes
• why gold can fall in wartime and how central bank flows and the dollar matter👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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20 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: The Hidden Bear Market
Show notes
We break down why the US stock market can look calm at the index level while most stocks are already deep in a bear market. We also lay out the three forces we see lining up around the midterms and how skilled money tends to position before the headlines change.
• Market breadth showing most stocks down 20% plus while the S&P 500 holds up
• How index concentration turns “diversified” funds into a handful of mega cap bets
• Why a broad washout can be closer to opportunity than a bubble top
• Midterm elections as a trigger that clears uncertainty and historically coincides with strong returns
• The three drivers lining up: AI spending digestion, uncertainty lifting, money supply and liquidity turning
• How skilled money follows flows instead of marrying stocks
• Investor sentiment extremes as a contrarian signal when sellers are already exhausted
• Why the stock market is not a real time health check for the economy
• Practical mindset shifts: don’t hide in cash without a plan, track liquidity and positioning over news👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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20 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: The Four Cracks Shaking Europe
Show notes
We connect Europe’s unrest, factory closures, and capital flight into one financial story, then stack it against the United States to see which risks are already here and which could still arrive. We lay out a calm, three-step way to assess your exposure so you can protect your portfolio and retirement instead of reacting to scary headlines.
• the four “cracks” under Europe’s turmoil and how they link together
• why pay-as-you-go pensions break when demographics shift
• the three political exits: cut benefits, raise taxes, print money
• how inflation can hit savings without “taking” money
• why housing affordability locks out the under-35 generation
• how energy costs can unravel heavy industry and supply chains
• why capital flight is fast, quiet, and hard to reverse
• what America still has: cheaper energy and global trust
• a three-step plan: map exposures, stress-test what you own, keep learning👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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22 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Will Lab-Made Gold Crash The Gold Price
Show notes
We break down the viral claim that fusion technology can turn mercury into real gold, then run the numbers that most headlines skip. We also look at why the diamond comparison misleads, what central banks are doing with their own money, and how we think about miners after a sharp pullback.
• the physics of transmutation versus the economics of production
• why enriched mercury costs break the “cheap gold” narrative
• the radioactive delay problem and why it matters for supply
• the diamond crash explained as manufactured scarcity collapsing
• gold framed as the hard-to-produce counterweight to money printing
• central bank gold buying as a signal to watch
• inflation measured in time and why official figures feel off
• mining stocks selloffs, the “heartbeat” pattern, and why we wait👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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20 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Why $1.2 Trillion Vanished And What It Means For Your Portfolio
Show notes
A $1.2 trillion Nasdaq plunge looks like a crash, but we break down why it is a targeted AI trade sell-off with money rotating into defensive sectors. We also explain what hedge funds are doing, why junk-rated AI project debt matters, and how to think about protecting your portfolio when the S&P 500 starts moving with a handful of AI names.
• the real meaning of AI derating and why valuations reset
• Tesla CapEx cuts, Meta credit risk signals, and weak guidance as catalysts
• how hedge funds short stocks and why positioning hits five-year extremes
• what a short squeeze is and why snapbacks punish panic sellers
• why equal-weight S&P 500 strength points to sector rotation
• where the money goes: staples, utilities, healthcare, financials
• how project finance and junk bonds fund AI data centers
• why rising correlation can turn an AI problem into an index problem
• a high-probability options example on silver with clear risk warnings👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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24 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Why Central Banks Keep Buying Gold As Prices Fall
Show notes
Gold drops more than 3% in a day, yet central banks and top Wall Street research desks keep leaning into gold. We break down the short-term forces hitting the price, the long-term reasons demand is surging, and the practical ways to own gold without getting trapped by fees or bad storage.
• central banks buying gold at roughly five times the old monthly pace
• how Goldman Sachs estimates hidden buying with real-time trade data
• why Bank of America frames the trade as long gold and anything but the dollar
• the real reason the price falls when oil rises and the Fed is expected to hike
• how rising US debt service and bond yields change the investing landscape
• crowding out from private borrowing and why hard assets get attention
• financial repression as a stealth way to shrink debt through inflation
• separating the short-term rate story from the long-term reserve story
• setting a plan: decide how much before when and define your calm level
• how to buy gold via physical, allocated vaulting, or gold-backed funds
• premiums, dealer red flags, and why allocated beats unallocated👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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25 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: When The Money Gets Rewritten
Show notes
A currency reset can quietly rewrite the value of your savings while you are still playing by the old rules. We lay out a calm plan built around what holds value outside fragile promises, plus the simple tests we use to spot businesses that can survive inflation and tightening money.
• Defining a currency reset in plain terms and why it can feel quieter than a crash
• Explaining how savings and pensions become claims inside the system that can be written down
• Showing why the careful saver can be more exposed than the gambler
• Breaking down three asset classes that tend to hold value when old money gets devalued
• Physical gold as hard money plus the key risk of paper gold claims
• Property as shelter and utility plus the downside of being easy to tax and impossible to move
• Why productive and self-sufficient property is more resilient than fragile “address value”
• The mortgage twist where fixed debt can shrink in real terms if payments stay affordable
• Why stocks are not one single thing and how pricing power can preserve real value
• Three stock filters we use: pricing power, something hard to copy, and manageable debt
• Why diversification matters and why going all-in on one hedge can backfire👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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24 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: How AI Infrastructure Fueled By Borrowing Can Break Markets
Show notes
We break down why CoreWeave, a little-known AI “NeoCloud” lender-dependent business, may be the first crack in the AI plumbing that index funds rely on. We connect insider selling, distressed debt pricing, and credit default swap signals to a bigger question: whether AI is facing a borrowed-money reset similar to the dot-com era.
• CoreWeave’s business model of buying NVIDIA chips and renting AI compute by the hour
• Founder share sales and why Form 4 insider filings matter for ordinary investors
• How bond prices, yields, and credit default swaps can warn before stocks react
• The dot-com “plumbing” lesson from Cisco, Amazon, and the Nasdaq drawdown timeline
• Why a reset can shift money toward owners of scarce compute and away from heavy borrowers
• Goldman Sachs’ key warning about too much capital chasing too little power-ready compute
• What we watch next: Nasdaq technical levels, debt insurance costs, earnings delivery, insider alerts👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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24 min
AI Lending Risk: How Banks Earn Fees And Transfer Exposure
Show notes
AI lending has become a case study in how Wall Street's fee machine operates. In this episode, Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces the mechanics of a five billion dollar loan arranged by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan for AI chip company Volta Infrastructure. The banks collected fees but declined to hold most of the loan, placing 3.7 billion dollars on a best efforts basis for sale to pension funds and insurers. The loan carries an 11 per cent interest rate, well above the junk bond average of 8 per cent. Meanwhile Oracle's data centre debt is trading below face value, with bankruptcy insurance costs at levels not seen since 2009. Prehn notes that Goldman's own trading desk advised institutional clients to derisk from AI exposure in the same week its research analysts issued buy recommendations, illustrating how different parts of one institution serve different purposes within the transaction machine.
In this episode:
00:00 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan refused to hold their own AI chip loan
03:03 How the bank fee machine works in plain terms
05:06 Risk transfer from banks to pension funds and insurers
09:40 Bank price targets on Meta, Micron and Nvidia
11:12 Price targets feed the transaction and fee cycle
12:44 Goldman traders tell institutional clients to derisk from AI
13:48 Volta Infrastructure loan structure and best efforts clause
15:48 Eleven per cent interest rate signals elevated riskSources mentioned:
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com
Morgan Stanley, https://www.morganstanley.com
BNP Paribas, https://www.bnpparibas.com
Truist, https://www.truist.com
Cantor Fitzgerald, https://www.cantor.com
Oracle, https://www.oracle.com
Volta Infrastructure
Bitdeer, https://www.bitdeer.com
Anthropic, https://www.anthropic.comFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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24 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: Who Really Funds The AI Boom
Show notes
We break down a $5 billion AI chip loan that major banks arranged, took fees on, and then mostly refused to hold, because the real story is risk transfer, not technology. We show how bullish AI research, quiet de-risking by trading desks, and “best efforts” loan language can point to the same machine pushing exposure toward pensions and insurers.
• banks earning upfront fees while offloading loan risk to institutional buyers
• why “best efforts” changes who holds the bag when demand dries up
• how price targets and bullish research keep the transaction machine running
• a direct contrast between research saying buy and traders saying de-risk
• what an 11% loan rate signals about AI infrastructure credit risk
• Nvidia’s unusual position as both chip seller and investor in the borrower
• Oracle data center debt stress as a broader sign of tightening AI financing
• how AI data centers link to energy demand, grid buildouts, and oil pricing
• the practical skill gap: learning financial vocabulary to read headlines differently👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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26 min
Silver To S&P 500 Ratio: Why It Signals A Historic Low
Show notes
Silver priced against the S&P 500 is sitting near its lowest reading in half a century, a level that has preceded every major multi-year silver rally of the past fifty years. In this episode Felix Nikolas Prehn traces two rule changes driving the shift. First, Basel 3 net stable funding requirements now force banks to hold 85 per cent cash backing against unallocated paper silver, pushing them towards physical metal and raising costs on what was once a profit centre. Second, China replaced its 25 year old silver export regime at the start of this year with tight licensing, restricting outflows from refiners that handle an estimated 60 to 70 per cent of global refined silver exports. Meanwhile COMEX registered inventories have fallen from 114 million ounces to roughly 76 million, the world has run a silver supply deficit for six consecutive years, and the solar industry alone consumes about 20 per cent of annual mine output. Felix outlines a three signal framework and stresses that silver remains highly volatile.
In this episode:
00:00 Silver to S&P 500 ratio near a 50 year low
03:00 How the ratio chart has preceded past silver rallies
07:00 Basel 3 and the 85 per cent unallocated silver funding rule
10:52 China tightens silver export licensing after 25 years
14:11 Chinese silver imports surge and solar demand at 20 per cent of supply
16:36 COMEX vault drawdowns and paper leverage at 7.6 to 1
19:00 Three signal framework for silver and stocks
22:47 Volatility warning and risk management guidanceSources mentioned:
Bank for International Settlements (Basel 3), https://www.bis.org
Silver Institute (World Silver Survey), https://www.silverinstitute.org
COMEX (CME Group), https://www.cmegroup.com
Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com
Brinks, https://www.brinks.comFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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20 min
Petrodollar System: Saudi Arabia, Gold And The Dollar
Show notes
The petrodollar system built in 1974 tied Saudi oil sales to the dollar and recycled the proceeds into American assets. Felix Nikolas Prehn explains how the recent missile strike on Riyadh's main airport has accelerated a quiet shift in Saudi Arabia's security and financial alignments. With defence pacts now signed with Turkey and Pakistan, and calls going to Paris and Islamabad rather than Washington, the episode examines whether the other side of the original bargain still holds. It covers Saudi Arabia's sale of roughly 11 billion dollars in US treasuries in a single month, the fixed riyal peg maintained since 1986, the mBridge payment system that bypasses the dollar, and central banks continuing to buy gold through its worst quarter since 2013. Prehn argues the key signal to watch is Saudi Arabia's official gold reserves, a number that has barely moved for years but may soon start climbing.
In this episode:
00:00 Missile strike on Riyadh airport and US response
00:57 Origins of the 1974 petrodollar arrangement
04:07 The Saudi riyal peg and foreign reserves
06:30 Saudi treasury sales and shifting alliances
07:48 Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and shipping costs
09:07 mBridge and alternatives to dollar settlement
10:18 Central banks buying gold into a downturn
10:59 Portfolio checks for oil shock exposureSources mentioned:
The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com
Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), https://www.sama.gov.sa
mBridge (BIS project), https://www.bis.orgFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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21 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens When Interest Costs Outrun Growth
Show notes
I break down the growing signs that the US Treasury is leaning on the bond market while long-term yields keep rising anyway. Then I connect that bond math to real life: mortgage rates, inflation pressure tied to AI spending, and how concentrated the stock market has become.
• how Treasury yields act as the price of money for mortgages, loans, and pensions
• why foreign demand is fading and why the Fed is no longer the default buyer
• what Treasury buybacks signal and why shifting to short-term bills changes the risk
• Morgan Stanley’s R versus G framework and what happens when interest costs outrun growth
• how AI investment can push inflation higher through chips, hardware, and software pricing
• why AI-driven stock market concentration looks like a classic bubble setup
• three practical moves: map what you own, check companies for debt risk, stop assuming long bonds are safe👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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23 min
Monetary Reset: Gold Outflows, Digital Dollar And Fed Pressure
Show notes
A monetary reset is already under way, according to Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker who traces four concurrent developments back to a single cause. European central banks are shipping gold home from New York vaults for the first time in decades. Norway's sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting roughly 80 billion dollars of US treasury holdings. Twenty one of the world's largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America, have announced a joint US dollar stablecoin set to launch in 2027. Meanwhile the US president has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates ahead of its September meeting. Prehn argues these moves all reflect eroding trust in the existing dollar system and draws a parallel with the Netherlands' gold conversion request in 1971, which preceded the end of dollar gold convertibility. He concludes that holding diversified hard assets and businesses with pricing power is a more prudent stance than remaining fully concentrated in a top heavy index.
In this episode:
00:00 The September Fed deadline and presidential pressure on rate cuts
01:02 Gold physically leaving American vaults for Europe
05:09 S&P 500 concentration in ten stocks driving 72 per cent of gains
07:41 Gold as a trust barometer for the dollar system
09:11 The 1971 Dutch gold request and the Nixon shock parallel
12:14 Norway's sovereign wealth fund trimming US treasuries
13:45 Japan's market wobble as the first crack in the system
14:47 Twenty one banks building a digital dollar stablecoin for 2027Sources mentioned:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org
Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway sovereign wealth fund), https://www.nbim.no
Jan Nieuwenhuijs (gold analyst)
GENIUS Act (US stablecoin legislation)
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), https://www.berkshirehathaway.comFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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21 min
Japan Bond Crisis And The Dollar: Why Gold Is Not Ready
Show notes
Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection.
In this episode:
00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent
01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades
05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt
06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing
07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates
08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash
10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off
12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971Sources mentioned:
Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com
Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble)
Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve)Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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22 min
US Debt Buyback Programme: What Doubling Money Printing Means
Show notes
The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buyback programme and run it through to early November is the focus of this episode. Felix Nikolas Prehn, a former investment banker, traces how the government is creating new money to purchase its own long-dated bonds at the same time as Japan, historically the most loyal foreign holder of American debt, sold roughly 88 billion dollars of US bonds in a single month. He sets out how real world inflation since 2020 has, in his view, exceeded 100 per cent, and notes that the dollar has lost roughly 93 per cent of its value since 1971 on official figures alone. He examines the additional pressure of an estimated one trillion dollars in corporate borrowing for AI data centres, the physical movement of gold out of US vaults at record levels, and the concentration of S&P 500 gains in just ten names. He concludes that holding assets with real pricing power matters more than ever when the money supply is expanding this fast.
In this episode:
00:00 Treasury doubles its debt buyback programme through to November
01:00 Physical gold leaving US vaults at record export levels
01:33 Japan sells 88 billion dollars of American debt in one month
04:05 Real inflation since 2020 estimated at well over 100 per cent
05:36 How the buyback mechanism works and who pays for it
06:36 Fed rate expectations diverge from government loosening
13:46 AI buildout adds roughly one trillion dollars in new corporate debt
17:19 Pattern matches the 1971 closing of the gold windowSources mentioned:
US Treasury refunding statement, https://home.treasury.gov
Japanese investor holdings of US debt (Ministry of Finance Japan), https://www.mof.go.jp/english/
US Bureau of Labour Statistics (dollar purchasing power), https://www.bls.govFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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20 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens If The World Stops Needing Dollars For Oil
Show notes
A missile strike in Saudi Arabia kicks off a chain reaction that can end in higher inflation and a weaker dollar, even if you never follow foreign policy. We connect the 1974 petrodollar deal, the Saudi riyal peg, central bank gold buying, and what to check in your own holdings before the market reprices risk.
• the missile strike as a currency and portfolio story
• why oil spikes hit gas, groceries, heating, then investments
• the 1974 oil for dollars arrangement and why it supports the US dollar
• how the Saudi riyal peg forces Saudi rates to shadow the Fed
• what it means when Saudi trims US Treasuries
• the physical risk in shipping routes and refinery targets
• the financial side door of non dollar settlement systems like mBridge
• why central bank gold buying matters even when gold prices fall
• a simple at home checklist to map holdings and stress test for inflation👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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23 min
Felix Nikolas Prehn: The Credit Reset
Show notes
We break down why America’s jump in borrowing costs signals a credit reset that can ripple through mortgages, pensions, and stock valuations long before mainstream headlines change. We connect cracked corporate bond charts in AI-linked giants to broad market weakness, then map out why silver and long-term bonds could become opportunity zones if the Fed is forced to respond.
• defining the credit reset in plain English and why yields reprice everything
• showing how higher Treasury yields collide with $40T in government debt
• walking through the three policy doors and why inflationary money printing is tempting
• reading bond market stress in Oracle, SpaceX, Meta-linked financing, and Paramount
• explaining concentration risk as AI becomes a huge share of index performance
• unpacking the $1.6B silver outflow and how trend funds plus leverage create forced selling
• outlining why metals can benefit when the Fed expands liquidity, with clear risks if it does not
• making the contrarian case for long-term bonds and how duration cuts both ways
• emphasizing process over predictions, plus position sizing and downside control👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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25 min
Fed Losing Control: How AI Borrowing Reshapes Bonds And Gold
Show notes
The Federal Reserve is losing its grip on long term interest rates, according to senior Goldman Sachs traders who describe the central bank as more passenger than driver. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the mechanism: technology companies building AI infrastructure are on track to issue more debt than the US government next year, with borrowing approaching 1.3 trillion dollars. That wave is absorbing global savings, pushing bond yields higher and creating inflation before any productivity gains arrive. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled annual gold purchases to over 1,000 tonnes, absorbing roughly a third of new mine supply and thinning the market available to other buyers. Goldman's metals desk calls the recent gold pullback an elongated pause rather than a top, viewing 4,000 dollars an ounce as a floor. Silver offers larger potential moves in both directions owing to its far thinner investment market. The episode concludes that inaction carries its own considerable risk.
In this episode:
00:00 Goldman traders say the Fed is now a passenger
01:33 Gold desk calls the dip an elongated pause
04:38 AI borrowing set to dwarf US government debt
06:10 The global savings glut era is declared over
08:41 AI spending is inflationary before productivity arrives
09:42 Government bond buybacks called a firecracker in a hurricane
16:48 Central banks doubled gold purchases to over 1000 tonnes
20:24 Silver offers bigger upside but violent dropsSources mentioned:
Goldman Sachs cross-asset trading desk, https://www.goldmansachs.com
Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs global metals trading
Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs equity franchise salesFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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25 min
Gold And The Financial Reset: Why Central Banks Are Buying
Show notes
Gold pulled back roughly 20 per cent from its highs, yet central banks bought a record amount in a single quarter, spending some 40 billion dollars on the metal. Felix Nikolas Prehn connects this buying spree to a broader pattern: Bank of America data showing productivity and consumer confidence falling together for the first time since 2008, despite 1.5 trillion dollars already spent on AI. He examines the concentration risk inside the S and P 500, where 70 per cent of this year's gains came from just ten AI related stocks. He outlines the BRICS backed Unit settlement system, designed to bypass SWIFT and underpinned by 40 per cent gold, potentially launching later this year. Drawing parallels with the 1940s, when the Federal Reserve pinned rates to absorb government debt and inflation halved the purchasing power of savings in six years, he argues the same debt playbook is repeating now with US debt again above 120 per cent of GDP.
In this episode:
00:00 Productivity and consumer confidence fall together for the first time since 2008
03:32 1.5 trillion dollars spent on AI with no measurable productivity gain
05:05 Altman, Amodei and Musk call to slow AI development
06:06 Ten stocks account for 70 per cent of S and P 500 returns this year
11:12 Central banks bought a record amount of gold in a single quarter
13:14 The Unit settlement system backed by 40 per cent gold explained
14:46 Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gold price targets up to 6000 dollars
17:23 The 1940s debt playbook and how it quietly eroded savingsSources mentioned:
Bank of America (Michael Hartnett research)
Goldman Sachs, https://www.goldmansachs.com
JP Morgan, https://www.jpmorgan.com
ING, https://www.ing.com
Financial Times, https://www.ft.com
Kitco, https://www.kitco.com
OpenAI (Sam Altman), https://www.openai.com
Anthropic (Dario Amodei), https://www.anthropic.comFelix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.
Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com👉 Claim 99% Off the Financial Freedom Program. Use coupon 99PC at checkout https://felixfriends.org/stocks
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