Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

UFC returns to its regularly scheduled fight times and lands back in Las Vegas! Renato Moicano faces Tom Nolan in the Meta Apex main event...on Halloween! Spooky.

Rob dives through a few fights from his analytical viewpoint, letting The Model do the work.

Model is currently predicting at 60.78% for the year...can it keep it going this weekend?

Only 6 UFC events left on the calendar in 2026. So lock in!

If you're enjoying the show, please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and FOLLOW!

Check out https://fightingwithnumbers.com for more!

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Set your alarms this weekend because the UFC is taking its talents to Abu Dhabi for UFC 333. We've got two title fights headlining this one.

First, Petr Yan will defend his new Bantamweight Championship in a trilogy fight against Merab Dvalishvili. It's all on the line here.

And in the main event, Featherweight Champion, Alexander Volkanovski, will look to stop the undefeated Movsar Evloev.

Rob runs through the data and delivers his numbers for this weekends betting card.

Check out https://fightingwithnumbers.com for more!

And follow me on Twitter/X and Instagram @TheRobbeo

Timestamps

00:00 - UFC 333

03:53 - Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes

08:04 - Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

14:19 - Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

21:07 - Let It Rip!

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UFC heads north of the border, as Canada hosts UFC Edmonton this week. Joaquin Buckley faces Mike Malott in a welterweight matchup that could produce some fireworks.

Model sits at 61% on the year. With only eight events left on the fight calendar, let's find some ways to keep the profits going.

With a slower fight week, a little trading card fun to cap things off as well as we'll rip a pack to top things off here.

For more model information and season dashboard, head over to https://fightingwithnumbers.com

And more more of Rob (if that interests you), follow on Instagram and X/Twitter: @TheRobbeo

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This week the UFC returns to Las Vegas and lands at the Meta APEX. Brendan Allen faces Christian Leroy Duncan in a match that could determine future middleweight contenders.

This may not be the strongest card on paper, but there's always opportunities to bet.

Plus what can we pull this week in our weekly pack rip. Pack Bet?? Maybe...

Chapters

00:00 - Episode 61 Starts Now!

01:15 - UFC Vegas 122 Preview

02:11 - Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

06:45 - Brendan Allen vs CLD

13:00 - Pack Bets!

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The title fight we've all been waiting for...right?

UFC 332 is this weekend and the vacant Women's Flyweight Championship is up for grabs!

Natalia Silva comes in on an 8 fight win streak as she challenges The Joker, Cong Wang. Who will take home gold?

Breaking down some key fights and finding some bets for us this weekend on this episode of Fighting With Numbers.

Plus can we find a Pack Bet in our new box of UFC cards?

If you're enjoying the show, subscribe today!

If you're not enjoying the show...subscribe as well! Why not?

You can find Rob on X/Twitter & Instagram: @TheRobbeo

Full model data and season dashboard is available at https://fightingwithnumbers.com

Chapters:

00:00 - What up!?

03:15 - King Green vs Esteban Ribovics

08:00 - Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott

12:30 - Natalia Silva vs Cong Wang

17:04 - Pack Rip Time

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UFC Vegas 121 goes down in Las Vegas this week, back in the APEX we go!

Headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos. It is youth vs experience.

Lean betting card for us but that's not stopping us from breaking a few fights down. Along with a pack rip! (Of course).

Make sure to check out FightingWithNumbers.com for more tale of the tapes and a full season dashboard.

Check me out on Twitter and Instagram at @TheRobbeo

Enjoy the violence!

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It's UFC 331 week! And the rematch is here between Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja as they settle the score for the Flyweight title.

Rob dives through the fights with the model and finds his bets for the week.

Plus we're ripping another pack of cards, see if we can make it 3 in a row for Pack Bets!

Subscribe to the show and leave a rating, share with a fellow fight fan today!

Follow along on X and Instagram: @TheRobbeo

More fight data available at https://fightingwithnumbers.com today!

Chapters:

00:00 - UFC 331 Preview

02:52 - Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

07:19 - Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

13:45 - Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja 2

21:30 - Let It Rip

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¡Que onda cabrones! It's Noche UFC — the UFC's yearly celebration of Mexican Independence Day — and Fighting With Numbers is back with seven fights through the model and four breakdowns on the pod. Plus the pack rip delivers an auto card AND the pack bet of the week. Feliz Noche UFC — que disfruten la violencia.

If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

00:00 Que Onda Cabrones — Welcome to Noche UFC
02:41 Model Update & Last Week Recap
08:38 Card Preview & Fight Selection
09:16 Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes
12:30 Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso
14:31 Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
18:00 Main Event: Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado
23:15 Pack Rip Time
25:49 Pack Bet of the Week & Closing

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The UFC is in Paris and the final 13 events of the season are officially underway. Rob breaks down two fights through the model this week. The main event features the UFC debut of French star Salahdine Parnasse in his home city — no model play, but plenty worth talking about. And after the sign-off? The pack rip gets its own moment as a true bonus round. Profitez de la violence.

If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

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UFC Shanghai kicks off at 3AM ET and Rob is up early to break it all down. Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong headlines UFC Shanghai this week! Two fights for us to break down, plus a pack rip to send things off.

If you're putting these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters 00:00 Intro and Fight Model Update

04:15 Xiaonan's UFC Journey and Matchup

07:39 Betting Odds and Predictions for Gomes

09:00 Umar Nurmargomedov's UFC Record and Fight Style

10:15 Nurmargomedov's Ground Control and Fight Strategy

12:13 Betting Tips: Nurmargomedov's Likely Outcome

14:00 Let It Rip!

16:54 Fun with 2026 Stadium Club UFC Cards Pack

17:22 Final Fight Predictions and Dashboard Update

17:59 Closing Remarks and Fight Night Tips

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UFC Sacramento isn't the most glamorous card on the calendar, but the model doesn't need glamour — it needs edges. Rob breaks down two fights this week, Plus another card rip to close things out.

If you're looking for a place to put these plays to work, head to Sleeper Picks and use code FWN for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Paid partnership — code FWN.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at https://fightingwithnumbers.com.

00:00 Introduction to UFC betting insights with Rob Moreno
01:49 Model performance and variance in UFC predictions
04:14 Overview of UFC Sacramento card and fight selection
08:47 Main event analysis: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
14:57 Betting strategies and model confidence in UFC fights
17:08 Unboxing UFC trading cards and final thoughts

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UFC 330 is headlined by Islam Makhachev chasing history — a 17th consecutive UFC win that would put him alone at the top of the all-time record. One historic main event. Let's see what Saturday brings.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and UFC 330 overview
02:11 Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj fight analysis
07:16 Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore preview
12:26 Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern analysis
17:00 Main event prediction: Islam Makachev vs Ian Machado Gary
23:44 Final thoughts and betting advice for UFC 330

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UFC Vegas 120 is back at the APEX and the data is as thin as it's been all season — but that doesn't mean there's nothing to work with. Rob breaks down a couple fights on the card.

The model processes it all, finds a real edge, and Rob explains exactly why he's taking a bet despite the data limitations. Plus — one more pack rip before next week's card finally gives us something to work with.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Intro and episode overview
01:16 Recent model success and UFC Vegas 120 context
02:17 Data limitations for this week's fights
03:46 Upcoming UFC event details and card preview
04:41 Personal updates and social media shoutouts
05:14 Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo fight analysis
09:25 Main event preview: Gamrot vs Salkilld
15:45 Fight prediction and betting decision
16:38 Pack opening and UFC card pull

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The UFC heads to Belgrade this week and the main event comes with a storyline the model simply can't account for. Rob breaks down what that means for the fight, how the numbers line up against a knockout machine on a three-fight TKO streak, and pack rip number three — hopefully the last one before the fight cards get fuller again. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Intro and UFC Belgrade overview
01:09 Model's recent success and upcoming fights
02:35 Personal vacation and fighter background context
03:25 Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec analysis
06:10 Betting odds and prop insights for Rebecki vs Prepolec
08:22 Daniel Rodriguez's prison stint and fight implications
09:59 Uros Medic's recent KO streak and fight style
11:07 Striking and ground game comparison
12:38 Model's prediction and betting considerations
14:23 UFC Belgrade fight card recap and card rip
17:20 Closing remarks and website promotion

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The UFC is in Abu Dhabi this week and Rob is back with another lean card, another early morning start, and another pack rip. Two fights make the cut for the model this week — an undefeated prospect with a suffocating grappling game looking to stay perfect, and a former light heavyweight champion returning in a last-minute main event against a hungry replacement opponent. Short card, safe plays, and whatever comes out of the pack. If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow. Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Abu Dhabi and Episode Overview

00:56 Recap of Last Week's Model Performance and MMA Betting Reality

02:23 Current UFC Betting Climate and Card Preview

03:37 Introduction to Pack Rip Tradition and Social Media Presence

05:57 Fighter Profile: Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis

09:14 Main Event Breakdown: Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov

19:05 Betting Predictions and Line Movements for Main Event

21:17 Pack Rip Card Opening and Collectible Highlights

24:24 Closing Remarks and How to Follow for More Content

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The UFC heads to Oklahoma City for a shorter card this week, and Rob starts by addressing the elephant in the room — Conor McGregor's knee gave out in the first round, BSD dropped a fight he didn't see coming, and somehow we move forward. On a data-thin slate, the model still finds two fights worth talking about: a co-main event where the Tier 1 favorite's price sends us straight to the prop market, and a main event where a former welterweight champion steps into a new division as a big underdog with a very clear blueprint for winning. Plus — something new this week. Rob rips open a UFC trading card pack live on air. No script. Just vibes and whatever comes out of the pack.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Intro and UFC Oklahoma City overview
01:28 Recap of recent UFC fight results and lessons learned
02:24 Discussion on Conor McGregor's return and fan disappointment
05:08 Preview of UFC Oklahoma City main card and data limitations
06:10 Open UFC trading cards live on air
07:20 Analysis of Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
13:05 Preview of UFC main event: Duplessis vs Uzman
19:34 Live UFC card rip and closing thoughts
23:02 Final betting thoughts and episode wrap-up

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The Mac is back. Five years removed from his last fight and six years since his last win, Conor McGregor steps back into the octagon at welterweight for a rematch against Max Holloway that nobody saw coming when they first met back in 2013. Rob breaks down the UFC 329 card through the model.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Welcome Back Mac
02:04 Analyzing Women's Flyweight Fight: Cortez vs. Wang
05:15 Robert Whitaker's Move to Light Heavyweight
09:40 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett: A Lightweight Clash
13:46 The Return of Conor McGregor: Holloway Rematch
20:24 Final Thoughts and Betting Insights

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The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this week as Rafael Fiziev looks to make a statement in front of his home crowd against a red-hot Manuel Torres — a fighter who has barely seen a second round in his entire MMA career.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at https://FightingWithNumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Recent Performance Review
02:03 Upcoming UFC Event in Baku, Azerbaijan
03:13 Fight Breakdown: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson
07:43 Fight Breakdown: Rafael Faziv vs. Manuel Torres
14:04 Conclusion and Future Outlook

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Back at the APEX after one of the wildest events in UFC history. Rob recaps the White House card and gets into UFC Vegas 119 — a shorter card headlined by a legitimate flyweight title eliminator between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at https://fightingwithnumbers.com.

Chapters
00:00 Here We Go
05:02 Analyzing Upcoming Fights at UFC Vegas 119
14:32 Main Event Breakdown: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi

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The UFC takes it outside — literally — as the promotion sets up on the lawn of the White House for a card with two title fights and genuine history on the line. Rob breaks down fights through the model, including a heavyweight title fight where the model says one thing and the heart says another, and a lightweight main event where the undefeated El Matador looks to add another legend to his list. The outdoor environment, the crowd, the weather — this one comes with unknowns that no model can fully account for. That's what makes it must-watch television.

If you're enjoying the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a rating, and share the episode with a fellow fight fan — it goes a long way in helping the pod grow.

Find Rob on Twitter/X and Instagram at @TheRobbeo and check out the full model, season dashboard, and breakdowns at FightingWithNumbers.com.

00:00 Introduction and Event Recap

02:02 UFC Freedom 250 Overview

04:37 Weather and Environmental Factors

06:24 Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia Breakdown

11:16 Alex Pereira's Historic Title Shot

16:32 Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Analysis

23:35 Closing Thoughts and Final Predictions

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