Forward Guidance

The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help.

This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end.

We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Brewers Win the World Series

02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents

08:46 Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike

12:46 Fidelity / DAS London

13:58 Gold Slides Below $3,900

19:16 Is the AI Trade Fracturing?

29:29 Fidelity / DAS London

30:46 What Oil Teaches Us About AI

39:46 Midterms, War and Oil Supply

44:32 Inflation, Populism and Unrest

51:05 Polymarket Missed Brazil's Election

53:43 Inside the $6.36B Binance Hack

57:37 Gold, Bitcoin and DAS London

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AkjPKMl-PBMxKBU96-LUgBw0N8DBr4nn/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a. recommendation tobuy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?

This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.

We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two

01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%

02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up

05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case

09:45 Reading The Oil Curve

12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs

16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries

20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through

23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions

29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)

30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan

36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices

39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?

44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?

54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?

This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market.

We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge?

07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains?

10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital

16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market

23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin

26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity?

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x

› Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc

› Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?

This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.

We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:06 Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation?

07:53 Has The Fed Ruled Out October?

11:56 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:29 Cracks In The AI Growth Engine

16:59 Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming?

21:11 The Market’s Warning Shot

26:43 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

27:42 Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts?

32:14 Where Can Investors Find Shelter?

40:41 Do Rate Hikes Still Work?

44:43 Can Bonds Really Offer Safety?

49:06 Iran Escalation And The Midterms

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

http://fidelity.com/crypto

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jxp-TOVcBtYAs5dzvk8GK4k2pgKJE2vf/view?usp=sharing

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?

This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.

We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain

04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?

06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream

09:59 Bringing Real Assets To Perps

13:10 Can The US Get Perps Right?

15:51 Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance

18:15 What Robinhood Chain Has Learned

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Johann – https://x.com/JohannKerbrat

› Vlad – https://x.com/vnovakovski

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› DAS – https://x.com/blockworksDAS

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?

This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.

We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?

08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks

14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields Down?

19:23 The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act

22:42 Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom?

29:04 Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher

33:04 Do Rate Hikes Actually Stimulate?

38:13 Engineering Buyers For Government Debt

43:00 Europe’s Inflation Or Industry Dilemma

48:23 Why Europe’s Crisis Keeps Getting Worse

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Aidan – https://x.com/AidanGarrib

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era

› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API

https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.

This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.

We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising

07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?

11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?

16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?

19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade

23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?

26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over

29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?

35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?

39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?

44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?

50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks

53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?

58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?

This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.

We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?

08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading

13:11 The Return Of Stagflation

21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake?

25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms?

32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation

35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan?

48:45 The European Debasement Trade

59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge?

01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy?

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.

This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.

We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed

10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?

18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit)

20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again?

27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive

35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free?

39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?

42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge?

47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets?

53:22 Closing Thoughts

FOLLOW GUEST

› X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt

› LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/

› Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/

› Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.

This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.

We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?

06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%?

11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap

18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche)

20:05 Will The Fed Hike?

26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough?

30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking?

33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running?

37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking?

43:22 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?

This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.

We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?

10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance

12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again?

18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold

23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive

27:56 The Opportunity In Silver

29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin?

32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries?

36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem?

41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy?

FOLLOW GUESTS

› Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

› Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise

› Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.

This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.

We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent

05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?

08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed

13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks?

16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement

19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit)

21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma

27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem

30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble

37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook

42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI?

47:03 The Debasement Endgame

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

› TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto.

Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST

› Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.

We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game

12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?

19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?

24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?

29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?

33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?

37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?

41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?

46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom?

51:58 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.

We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime

06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder

14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market

20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope

29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing?

37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold

43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible

FOLLOW DARIUS

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42

› 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/

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› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.

This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.

We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

00:58 Tyler's Farewell

04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime

06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility

15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle?

20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade

24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?

28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot

33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft

40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms?

44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat

46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase

50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows

55:34 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.

This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.

We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 The Awesome Portfolio

04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk

11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift

14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data

17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting

20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight

22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun

27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold

FOLLOW JARED

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap

› Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.

This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.

We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?

21:08 Why The Long End Matters

25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem

29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?

33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection

38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics

45:46 August Slowdown Risks

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.

Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.

We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

14:04 Token Maxing Meets Efficiency

18:35 Who Captures AI’s Value?

22:12 Old GPUs Reveal Surging Demand

27:10 GPU Markets Keep Tightening

32:03 The Memory Bottleneck

37:07 AI’s Next Phase

FOLLOW STEVE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

› Silicon Data – https://www.silicondata.com/

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› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.

This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.

We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Markets

12:07 Has The AI Boom Hit Its Limits?

16:05 Cheap Models Threatening The AI Trade

19:52 Hyperscalers Facing A Credit Squeeze

23:27 The Fed’s Forward Guidance Failure

29:38 Global Carry Trade Risk?

35:29 Can Value Finally Win?

40:44 Iran Reignites Oil Risk

48:00 Housing Policy Vs Property Rights

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yRksHxeO19PfW6MOCrzT_OpEwicKuog/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.

This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.

We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:00 Trading Outside The Box

06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk

12:46 AI As A Trading Tool

19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets

25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed

33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook

41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable?

43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?

FOLLOW BRENT

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/donnelly_brent

› Spectra Markets – https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

› Trade Outside The Box – https://a.co/d/0i4r9Udd

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

Blockworks recently acquired Messari. For more information, please visit: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.