Geopolitical Cousins

Mailbag episode next week!!! This week - Elections. Everywhere. Everybody wants a strongman story but the strongmen keep losing and going home! Lula came back from behind against Flávio Bolsonaro. Israel turned out 77.7% of their entire voter base and still nobody has 61 seats. The US is about to do some real soul-searching, and Cousin Matt Gertken of BCA Research joins the cousinly love to call the Senate. My cousin in Christ, polls can't model turnout. And this year, turnout is angry.

Important Notes:

Serbia held a snap parliamentary election on October 25. The Student List, a slate of non-party experts assembled by the movement that formed after the November 2024 canopy collapse at Novi Sad's railway station, won a majority of the 250 seats. Aleksandar Vučić, who had stepped down as president in September to lead his party's campaign, conceded that night.

Brazil's runoff was the same day. Lula, who trailed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair's son, in the first round, won about 51.7% to 48.3%. Flávio has disputed the result.

Israel voted on October 27. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the opposition around Gadi Eisenkot about 48 and the Arab parties 19, so no camp has the 61 it needs to govern.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro/Welcome

(01:03) - Serbia's students beat Vučić

(06:59) - Strongmen, autocrats and who leaves office

(13:14) - Brazil and the "strongman loser"

(30:33) - Israel: record turnout, no majority

(43:51) - Geopolitical QE and Israel's next decade

(51:46) - Where polls come from

(55:43) - Quick-fire Senate predictions

(01:07:28) - Final thoughts: the midterms and 2028

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Referenced in the Show:

Matt Gertken - https://www.bcaresearch.com/strategists/matt-gertken

Elections - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, France has had a riot in the streets every few years this century. Pensions in '95. The banlieues in 2005. Students in 2006, pensions again in 2010, the Yellow Vests, pensions again in 2023. In May '68 the president flew to Baden-Baden and nobody could find him. This is not the end of France, because it's the most French thing ever. Try: data centers eating the world's capital, energy eating paychecks, two wars nobody voted for. Something has to give.

Jacob thinks it's your grandmother's pension.

Marko thinks it's guns.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro/Welcome

(01:25) - The movies somebody should make

(17:09) - Geopolitical video games

(18:57) - Is this France's 1968?

(19:52) - A century of French protests

(25:45) - Giscard techno and the Le Pen scenario

(29:47) - Workers, AI and why geopolitics isn't a trade

(33:30) - It's energy, not AI

(38:54) - Elite overproduction

(44:30) - The big short

(53:08) - Who gets cut first

(59:40) - Iran, Ukraine and the wars of choice

(01:09:05) - Trump's tragic flaw

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Referenced in the Show:

GiscardPunk -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKhnDzRgsW8

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:02) - Paris Market Fire

(02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout

(03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz

(08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms

(21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity

(37:53) - Limited Force Iran

(38:50) - Trump Strategy Document

(39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals

(42:24) - America Behind Curtain

(43:54) - Regime Change Values

(50:53) - After Trump Realism

(52:46) - Houthis Scenario Menu

(54:05) - Trump Houthi Deal

(56:58) - Regional Wildcards

(01:00:28) - Houthi Strategy Shift

(01:01:14) - US Reacts Not Leads

(01:02:16) - Voters And Israel Test

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.”

Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices. They’re targeting the war. Also: France might just be Illinois, and why Marine Le Pen in power is better for France than Marine Le Pen in opposition.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Intro

(00:31) - Hegseth Basketball Challenge

(02:09) - Trust the Process Joke

(07:25) - Bond Market Basics

(14:26) - Is the Economy Really Hot

(19:46) - Debt Service and Thin Ice

(25:54) - Fed Conspiracy Theory

(38:58) - Fed Tool Too Blunt

(39:37) - Inflation Hits Real Life

(40:13) - ECB vs Fed Mandates

(42:59) - Yield Curve Warning Signs

(45:32) - Gridlock and Market Risk

(46:59) - France Bonds and Le Pen

(01:16:06) - Middle East Shipping Shift

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

OpenAI burned $15 million in three days to beat Anthropic to a Millennium Prize problem. Nobody's quite sure whose work they trained on to do it. This week the cousins bring in their science cousin - physicist Dan Green, Marko's college roommate - to explain what AI is actually doing to math, and why the whole thing smells less like a real breakthrough and more like an elaborate flex.

And... when a company tells you that their product might end humanity, is that a warning or a pitch deck? Marko has thoughts. Plus: why the dangerous scenario isn't the robot, it's the idiot who trusts it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back and Guest Intro

(00:48) - Meet Dan the Science Cousin

(04:24) - AI Solves Big Math Problems

(09:22) - Backlash and Research Ethics

(16:03) - What AI Means for Science

(21:47) - Who Pays for Discovery

(34:23) - Terminator Talk and Real Risks

(45:18) - Corporations vs Paperclip AI

(46:58) - Chatbot Intel Near Miss

(49:10) - Anti Expert Government Risk

(51:59) - Future Robots and Human Agency

(58:59) - AI as Godlike Branding

(01:03:03) - Nuclear Energy Lessons

(01:11:06) - Why AI Writing Feels Wrong

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Referenced in the Show:

Dan Green - https://drgreen.physics.ucsd.edu/

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Houthis have an email address. You send them your ship's name, your transponder number, and they send you back a bank account. It's all very cultured. And the Iranians could have taken oil to $200 back in March but... They didn't. The Houthis could have flattened the East-West Pipeline seven years ago but... They didn't. So when everybody on Twitter is losing their toupees over Brent at 110, ask the better question: not what could happen, but why it hasn't. This is piracy, not jihad. These guys want to get P - A - I - D.

Plus: Brussels quietly builds a fake 28th country, and Sam Altman melting GPUs is just regulatory capture in a hoodie.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Travel-Mode Quick Intro

(00:44) - Pipelines Hit and Houthis Return

(02:24) - Piracy Logic and Getting Paid

(03:18) - Targeting Precision and IRGC Help

(05:15) - China Rumors and BRICS Diplomacy

(06:50) - Backchannel Talks and US Pullback

(09:57) - Oil Prices and Gulf Infighting

(12:04) - Midterms Leverage Debate

(19:16) - Capabilities Aren't New

(23:13) - Energy Diversification Reality Check

(24:26) - World Adapts to Tanker Wars

(25:07) - EU Speech Reality Check

(25:59) - EU Inc and Tax Plans

(28:04) - Single Market Stalled

(30:19) - Two Speed Europe Shift

(31:24) - Telecom Scale Problem

(33:45) - Will Europe Execute

(34:58) - Why This Time Different

(38:20) - Ukraine in the Revival

(41:43) - Freeze Conflict Strategy

(45:33) - AI Regulation Capture

(49:30) - China World Models Next

(50:46) - Wrap and Next Episode

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum.

Also: Greek shippers, making a killing.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Cold Open and Timing

(00:29) - AfD Shock Headlines

(02:16) - Europe Media Myths

(05:12) - AfD Strategy and Taboos

(09:29) - EU Integration Is Settled

(12:21) - Not Nazis but Risks

(14:18) - East Germany Roots

(17:47) - Ukraine and Russia Realism

(21:05) - Coalitions and Overton Window

(23:58) - Migration and Integration Crunch

(32:26) - Long Trend Not Flash

(34:42) - East West Guilt Divide

(36:53) - Guilt Politics Backfire

(37:46) - Teaching History Without Dwelling

(39:34) - Sons And Fathers Debate

(41:07) - Statues And Memory Wars

(42:12) - Germany Flags And Expert Skepticism

(43:29) - Why Parliaments Tame Extremes

(45:05) - Let AfD Govern Locally

(45:47) - Houthis Strike And Oil Risks

(48:35) - Greek Shippers Beat Blockades

(53:01) - Supply Chains Adapt Over Time

(55:25) - Corporate Strategy In Gray Zones

(58:29) - Amoral Multipolar Lessons

(01:01:47) - Houthi Sponsorship Joke Break

(01:02:21) - Ballmer Kawhi And Uncle Dennis

(01:03:46) - Clippers Insecurity And Hubris

(01:09:43) - Jersey Retirements And Wrap Up

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Rabies-infested beavers. Not an insult - a fiscal strategy. Canadians have stopped buying bourbon, started flying maple leaf flags in grocery stores, and ~ most importantly ~ handed Mark Carney the political cover to build infrastructure needed since the OG Trudeau. This week: why "size of the fight in the dog" beats a trade balance sheet, why 5% tariff coverage is somehow triggering a national identity crisis, and why America might be the Uncle Dennis of North America - took free money, overstayed the welcome, and is now shocked nobody wants him at Thanksgiving.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Housekeeping

(00:35) - Canada Episode Setup

(01:05) - Trade War Rupture

(02:25) - Why Tariffs Now

(04:18) - States at Risk

(05:38) - Carney Strikes Back

(06:40) - Risk Tolerance Matters

(08:29) - Canada Consumer Backlash

(10:20) - Carney Fiscal Space Plan

(12:20) - Infrastructure Reality Check

(15:26) - Quebec and Unity Messaging

(17:22) - Economic Pain and Polls

(20:49) - What Exports Really Are

(24:00) - China Veto Red Line

(27:01) - Maple 8 Pension Power

(29:12) - Canada Defense Mythbusting

(37:41) - Is America the Threat

(42:00) - Imperialism and History

(44:03) - WWII Alliance Origins

(44:42) - Peace Dividend Border

(46:03) - Risk Logic Defense Costs

(46:37) - Why Invasion Fails

(51:56) - Trade War Won't Work

(53:17) - Canada Already Concedes

(57:38) - Defense As Bargaining

(01:00:46) - Schoolyard Bully Moment

(01:06:13) - Canada EU Option

(01:10:44) - Peace Arch Warning

(01:12:13) - US Politics Fallout

(01:16:25) - Higher Price Later

(01:19:54) - Sports Metaphor Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent says he doesn't understand why oil prices are spiking. The guy standing between America and the River Styx is confused :) The cousins crack open a few cold ones this week and break down why the 30-year just hit a 20-year high - not debt, not deficits, just vibes. Atrocious ones. The lads cover the war in Iran, tweets about North Korea, and a bond market that's done playing along. Plus... are hyperscalers minting money or building the next great overbuild? And what does the Lakers sale have to do with any of this? Everything, obviously.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Beer And Banter

(01:02) - Treasury Buyback Shock

(04:15) - Why Yields Matter

(05:44) - Growth And Data Center Debt

(09:34) - War In Iran And Bad Vibes

(10:27) - Three Bond Selloffs Explained

(18:16) - Debt Deficits And AI Debate

(26:23) - China Models And AI Capex

(43:06) - Dollar Multipolarity Risks

(46:03) - Reserve Currency Reliability

(47:40) - South Korea Tweet Fallout

(48:48) - Pound vs Dollar Inertia

(51:57) - Trump 1 vs Trump 2

(54:04) - Iran War Limits Debate

(59:14) - Multipolar Reality Sets In

(01:01:56) - Backlash Against Data Centers

(01:05:10) - Why AI Fear Spreads

(01:11:26) - Populism and Tax Future

(01:19:39) - Lakers Sale Conspiracies

(01:22:34) - Private Equity in Sports

(01:25:52) - Closing Banter and Wrap

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire's marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia's next move, but what's new?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back Cousins!

(00:53) - Same Old Geopolitics

(01:43) - Hormuz Deal Rumors

(02:26) - Markets Ignore War

(03:34) - No Total War Thesis

(08:12) - Kinetic Activity Debate

(09:56) - Pipelines Undercut Iran

(13:45) - AI Bubble vs Oil Risk

(18:24) - Tolls and China Advantage

(22:44) - Freedom of Navigation Rant

(30:05) - Geography vs Technology

(36:54) - Pivot to Russia Ukraine

(39:07) - Wars Find Equilibrium

(41:04) - Ukraine War Normalized

(41:55) - Drones Hit Russia Home

43:46) - NATO Targets Warning

(45:08) - Black Sea Price Shock

(46:57) - Iran US New Equilibrium

(49:25) - Ukraine Breaks Stalemate

(52:35) - Putin Leverage Options

(55:48) - Spice Alliance Limits

(58:22) - Why West Hates Iran

(01:00:43) - Cold War Origins

(01:03:44) - Israel Alliance Reframed

(01:07:30) - Mandela Versus Arafat

(01:13:49) - Netanyahu Pulls Trump

(01:16:16) - Israel Utility Not Sympathy

(01:20:19) - Israel Should Deal Iran

(01:22:23) - Closing Thoughts

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.

Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap.

Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two

(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format

(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments

(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test

(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree

(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War

(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics

(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage

(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate

(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons

(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform

(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink

(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice

(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts

(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics

(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs

(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale

(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist

(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion

(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable

(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology

(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained

(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective

(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser

(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart

(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion

(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism

(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans

(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty

(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home

(01:06:18) - Can Places Change

(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory

(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis

(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset

(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis

(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains

(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question

(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?

The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(02:05) - Reunion at the Table

(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format

(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization

(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout

(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash

(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate

(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn

(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check

(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear

(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios

(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame

(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves

(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke

(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate

(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union

(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks

(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession

(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear

(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum

(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario

(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion

(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints

(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash

(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster

(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons

(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation

(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate

(01:09:31) - End of Nation State

(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity

(01:12:04) - Broken World of More

(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse

(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand

(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply

(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal

(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions

(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown

(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break

--

Referenced in the Show:

https://zeihan.com/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Updates/Intro

(00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup

(02:02) - Guests And Agenda

(05:34) - How The Model Works

(11:21) - Winners Curse Debate

(15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument

(21:10) - Spain And Substitutions

(26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time

(30:57) - World Cup Negatives

(39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue

(43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate

(47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems

(49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics

(54:24) - What We Loved Most

(57:19) - America Production Spectacle

(01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture

(01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic

(01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch

(01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State

(01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments

--

Referenced in the Show:

2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24 hours. Marko's pitch: stop forecasting oil prices and start using them - they're an input, not an output. Jacob pushes back on who actually wants what. Then Japan, where rising yields and a yen at 162 have the macro world whispering about the carry trade. Plus a super El Niño, and the World Cup - because apparently the whole planet is rooting for England now. Rare.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and agenda

(00:36) - Iran flare-up timeline

(03:28) - Why Iran escalates

(06:59) - Oil prices drive conflict

(20:24) - China signals and forecasts

(23:18) - War 2.0 and Hormuz limits

(28:46) - Rangebound Oil Equilibrium

(30:33) - Hormuz Alternatives Rising

(32:50) - Spiral Risk And CPI

(36:18) - Trump Thesis And Forecasts

(41:21) - World Cup Ref Drama

(47:03) - Japan Yields And Global Spillovers

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's conviction, a French case nobody's making. And yes, the World Cup gets its forty minutes. It's a good one.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Episode Preview

(01:00) - World Cup vs World News

(02:03) - Hormuz Tanker Attacks

(03:07) - Oil Prices Drive Reality

(30:52) - Phony Russia Sanctions

(32:46) - Europe Rearms and Le Pen

(37:36) - Ukraine Stalemate and Crimea

(47:33) - World Cup Trump and FIFA

(01:02:20) - Birthright Soccer Paradox

(01:03:12) - Why World Cup Matters

(01:08:15) - American Grit on Pitch

(01:10:18) - Announcers and Fan Culture

(01:12:28) - Norway and Haaland Mythos

(01:13:36) - Trump FIFA and Nationalism

(01:16:30) - Sports as Peaceful Outlet

(01:23:30) - Predictions and Final Picks

(01:26:07) - Closing Love for World Cup

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecraft. Marko favors frameworks that discipline thinking; Jshap leans on fiction and history to capture how humans behave. Tune in to hear more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Reading Habit

(01:06) - Heat Talk and Air Conditioning

(03:34) - Book Draft Setup

(04:54) - Machiavelli The Prince

(16:20) - Talmud and Contrarian Thinking

(23:14) - Marx Das Kapital

(43:33) - Analyst Biases Primer

(46:15) - Framework Over Rolodex

(50:03) - Weber Versus Marx

(53:53) - Power And Human Nature

(01:02:47) - Realism And Institutions

(01:12:48) - Haunting Endings And Paradigms

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Referenced in the Show:

The Prince — Niccolò Machiavelli (Marko Papic)

The Talmud — Jewish corpus of rabbinic commentary, no single author (Jacob Shapiro)

Das Kapital (Capital) — Karl Marx (Marko Papic)

All the King's Men — Robert Penn Warren (Jacob Shapiro)

The Person and the Situation — Lee Ross & Richard Nisbett (Marko Papic)

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Jacob Shapiro)

The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism — Max Weber (Marko Papic)

Master of the Senate (The Years of Lyndon Johnson series) — Robert Caro (Jacob Shapiro)

Lord of the Flies — William Golding (Marko Papic)

Politics Among Nations — Hans Morgenthau (Jacob Shapiro)

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics — John Mearsheimer (Marko Papic)

The Search for Modern China — Jonathan Spence (Jacob Shapiro)

Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson (Marko Papic)

A Bend in the River — V.S. Naipaul (Jacob Shapiro)

The End: Hitler's Germany, 1944–45 — Ian Kershaw (Marko Papic)

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — Thomas Kuhn (Jacob Shapiro)

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Updates Teasers

(00:28) - Shaggy Marco Check In

(01:42) - Reflecting Pool Absurdity

(04:14) - World Cup Surprise Hit

(08:59) - Buc ees America Vibes

(13:45) - Freedom Why Not

(17:45) - Private Beach Reality Check

(18:48) - Zelensky Propaganda Blitz

(20:47) - Crimea Air Defense Strain

(23:25) - Putin Weakness Pivot Talk

(29:24) - Russian Economy Under Hood

(34:03) - Drones War Revolution

(35:00) - Defense Industry Oligopoly

(36:11) - Putin Mobilization Tells All

(40:15) - Drones and Pain Tolerance

(45:52) - Counter Drone Arms Race

(46:48) - 1948 Israel and Supply Lines

(55:25) - Why Conquest Usually Fails

(59:21) - Esprit de Corps Matters

(01:02:50) - Azerbaijan Drone Blueprint

(01:04:00) - Ukraine Economic Miracle Bet

(01:07:28) - Putin Own Goal Finale

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL

(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore

(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth

(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown

(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production

(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology

(13:39) - Can States Control AI

(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp

(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law

(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics

(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response

(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism

(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric

(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles

(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure

(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI

(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access

(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework

(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium

(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence

(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East

(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer

(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation

(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve

(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism

(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate

(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South

(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China

(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness

(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier

(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics

(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

World Cup Time!!!!!!!

Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins

(01:23) - Meet The Authors

(03:02) - Juan Football Roots

(07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories

(10:07) - Robert Germany Stories

(14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening

(19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard

(21:50) - Inside The Model

(28:28) - What Doesnt Predict

(30:22) - Group Stage Surprises

(31:40) - Home Edge And Curse

(35:16) - Why Champions Collapse

(36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse

(37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks

(39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals

(41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse

(43:30) - France Wins It All

(45:42) - France Identity Debate

(47:11) - Football And Immigration

(50:22) - Geopolitical Matches

(56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal

(01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America

(01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure

(01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell

--

Referenced in the Show:

2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging

(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream

(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea

(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal

(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals

(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit

(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears

(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs

(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality

(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy

(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk

(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking

(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click

(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology

(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era

(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks

(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze

(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers

(58:30) - Politics And The Fed

(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals

(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics

(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth

(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update

(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns

(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space

(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview

(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard

(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions

(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate

(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro