Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections stayed strong at 2.4mmt (90 mil bu), with year-to-date totals running 56% ahead of last year and China taking about 63% of the week’s volume. 📉 Corn rose 39% week-over-week to 884,766mt, while wheat posted an all-time record weekly low of just 75,413mt, down 61% from the prior week.

💰 Flash Sales: Mexico bought 1.7mmt (68 mil bu) of US corn, split between 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. 🇨🇳 Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery.

🛢️ China’s Soybean Oil Glut: China’s soybean oil stocks climbed to a record near 1.5 million tons as crushing outpaces sluggish demand, pushing exports to more than triple from a year ago. 🤝 China’s lead trade negotiator also met with a US ag delegation Monday, as Chinese purchases of non-soybean US farm goods head toward a seven-year low.

📊 Futures Recap: Jan soybeans dropped roughly 18¢ to $12.17/bu, their lowest close since mid-August, on falling crude, fund liquidation and strong yields. 🌽 Dec corn edged up a penny to $4.48/bu despite harvest pressure, and wheat closed slightly higher as Russia-Ukraine attacks dimmed hopes for a Black Sea shipping deal.

🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest jumped to 74% complete, just behind the 77% average, with delays persisting in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. 🌱 Soybeans reached 88% done (ahead of the 84% average), while winter wheat planting hit 83%, short of the 86% traders expected.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting: AgRural says Brazil’s soybean crop is 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% despite wet conditions in the south and dryness in the north. 🌽 Brazil’s first corn crop is 63% planted, also ahead of last year’s 59% pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

📊 Fund Positioning: Large money managers were net sellers of 83k corn contracts for the week ending October 27, bringing their total reduction since the mid-September peak to 333k contracts. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 23k SRW wheat contracts.

🌽 Weekly Grain Recap: Dec26 corn fell nearly 4 cents to about $4.48, its fifth straight weekly loss, on fund liquidation and harvest progress. Jan27 soybeans slipped to about $12.34, the lowest close since mid-August, while wheat posted a ninth consecutive weekly loss on expectations of more Russian exports. 📉

🇺🇦 Ukraine-Russia & Black Sea: Ukraine ended a two-week pause and struck a refinery in Russia’s Samara region, despite pressure from the Trump administration to stop. The escalation follows Russia issuing permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov, and Secretary of State Rubio cited “growing interest” in a partial Black Sea ceasefire. 🚢

🛢️ Crude Oil: Dec26 WTI dropped below $100/bbl overnight after peaking near $105 Friday, as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks in Doha on ending the US-Iran war. Some analysts still see upside risk, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays well below 2025 levels. ⛽

🫘 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a flash sale of 297,150 mt (11 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated soybean sales are running 80% ahead of the same period last year. 📈

💻 Binance Hack: Binance resumed withdrawals Sunday after a record $6.3 billion theft blamed on a North Korean state-sponsored hacking group. The exchange says about 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished, but the incident sparked heavy withdrawals and a broader crypto sell-off. 🔐

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌾 China Eyes US Wheat: State-owned grain trader Cofco has inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year, following the September Trump–Xi tariff agreement. China has bought more than half of its 25mmt soybean pledge but still hasn’t purchased any US corn or wheat this marketing year, and its own wheat supplies remain ample after another bumper harvest.

🚜 Ag Industry Headwinds: AGCO cut its annual sales outlook, with its CEO saying global farm machinery demand is at its weakest in more than a decade, though the company sees a possible recovery in 2027. Bunge held its earnings guidance but expects lower soybean crush profits, while proposed increases in biofuel blending requirements offer a potential bright spot for corn and soybean demand.

📈 Strong Export Sales: Net soybean sales hit 2.6mmt (95 mil bu) for the week ending October 22, with China the top buyer, and corn sales came in at 1.3mmt (51 mil bu), led by Mexico. Wheat finally had a strong week at 849,800mt (31 mil bu), beating expectations, with the Philippines as the largest buyer.

☀️ Drought Update: Warm, dry weather worsened drought across parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri, though it kept harvest moving at a good pace. Scattered rain improved conditions in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma, while 50% of winter wheat areas are still in drought.

🤖 AI and Crop Insurance: A new private insurance product will use AI to assess field-level risk, potentially saving corn and soybean farmers $10–$15 per acre on supplemental coverage. Launching in 15 Corn Belt states next year, it could lift total coverage up to 90% and may reward conservation practices like no-till and cover crops.

🛒 USDA $472.5M Purchase: The USDA plans to buy $472.5 million in US farm goods, from lentils and almonds to pork and dairy, for charitable food networks and nutrition programs. Secretary Brooke Rollins framed the move as part of the administration’s effort to put farmers first and advance its Make America Healthy Again agenda.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 New Ethanol Plant for North Dakota: RoughRider Energy plans a facility near Glen Ullin that would use 84 million bushels of corn a year to produce 240 million gallons of ethanol, starting in 2029. 🏭 CO2 from the plant would be piped to a Summit Carbon storage site about 15 miles north, while Gevo has proposed a separate 75-million-gallon plant near Richardton.

📉 Soybeans Slide, Corn Edges Up: January soybeans fell 5 cents to $12.38 on fund liquidation and worries that resumed Black Sea shipments could cut into US export demand. 🌾 Dec corn gained 3 cents to about $4.52 on bargain buying, while wheat posted its ninth loss in 10 sessions.

🚢 Sea of Azov Reopens to Grain Ships: Russia has issued permits letting grain vessels leave the Sea of Azov through November 15, after traffic was halted on July 10 by Ukrainian drone attacks. ⚠️ With no ceasefire in place, some ships are expected to travel under Russian naval escort.

🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% as inflation rose to 3.7% in September. 📊 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal for December, and traders still expect a hike next month but fewer increases in 2027.

🇺🇸 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🚀 Total US soybean export sales are running 81% ahead of last year’s pace.

⛽ Ethanol Output Hits 13-Week High: US ethanol production climbed to 1.12 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the prior week, with stocks nearly steady at 24.52 million barrels. 💰 Corn Belt ethanol margins strengthened to between 25 and 65 cents per gallon positive.

🎲 Kalshi Weighs New Safeguards: CEO Tarek Mansour says the prediction market is exploring ways to protect users from losses and is open to raising the minimum age from 18 to 21. 🔒 The company has already set a $2,500 monthly deposit limit for users under 21 and will place them in special accounts that discourage risky behavior.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn and soybean futures extended their losses Tuesday, with Dec26 corn down ~6 cents to near $4.59/bu and Jan27 soybeans off nearly 10 cents to $12.43/bu. 📉 A sharp drop in the Brazilian real after Lula’s reelection, a fast-moving harvest, and fund liquidation all weighed on prices.

🌾 Wheat futures kept sliding on currency headwinds and optimism that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could normalize Black Sea trade flows. 🕊️ Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~6 cents to near $6.10/bu, while Dec26 HRW dropped ~9 cents to around $6.51/bu.

🏦 The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, with markets pricing in a ~90% chance of a pause per CME’s FedWatch tool. 🔥 But with September inflation at 3.7%, traders see an ~80% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and possibly more in 2027.

🌱 Syngenta is targeting a Hong Kong IPO as early as January 2027 at a valuation of at least $66 billion, potentially raising $5-10 billion. 💰 The Sinochem-controlled company plans to sell a 10-20% stake to cut debt and invest in seeds and crop protection.

🪙 Amundi expects gold to rebound to around $4,500/oz after a selloff pushed prices below $4,000, their lowest since mid-July. 📊 Central bank buying and safe-haven demand could support a recovery, though the firm doubts gold will hit $5,000 by year-end.

🌦️ A strong El Niño could cut Brazil’s soybean crop to 163.6mmt versus 181.2mmt under neutral conditions, according to Serasa Experian, with most losses in the west-central region. 🇧🇷 Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean planting reached 40% complete, ahead of last year’s 36% pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Harvest Progress: US corn harvest jumped to 60% complete last week, still trailing the 66% five-year average, while soybeans hit 79% and pulled ahead of the 77% average. 🌾 Winter wheat planting reached 76%, just shy of its 77% average pace.

📉 Soybean & Corn Futures: Jan27 soybeans fell 16 cents to about $12.53, a two-month low, after Brazil’s real plunged roughly 12% following Lula’s surprise reelection. 🌽 Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $4.55, its lowest close since early July, pressured by soybeans, harvest progress, and weaker crude.

🇧🇷 Brazil Election Fallout: Lula’s win is a setback for Brazil’s farm lobby, which backed Flávio Bolsonaro and has clashed with Lula over land rights, environmental rules, and taxes. 🤝 The group now plans to work with Congress and the executive branch to push for relief for struggling farmers.

🚢 Wheat & the Black Sea: Dec26 SRW wheat dropped 9 cents to $6.16, its lowest since early July, on reports Russia is weighing proposals to secure Black Sea grain shipments. ⚠️ Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 62% in September, and rerouting through the Baltic hasn’t yet made up the difference.

📊 CFTC COT Changes: Starting in December, the CFTC will release its Commitments of Traders report twice a week, on Wednesdays and Fridays at 2:30pm CST. 🗓️ We’ll keep publishing full Fund Tracker charts weekly and update our Daily Fund Tracker as new data drops.

🚛 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections hit 2.5mmt, up 20% week over week, with China taking about 67% and year-to-date totals running 42% ahead of last year. 📦 Corn shipments came in at the low end of expectations at 625,233mt, while wheat disappointed at 183,824mt, with year-to-date totals down 35%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇧🇷 Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Sunday’s runoff, edging out Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2% and becoming the first candidate in Brazil’s modern democracy to lose the first round but win the runoff. Bolsonaro is refusing to recognize the result; his Liberal Party now holds the most seats in both chambers of Congress, and the upset ranks as one of the biggest misses in US prediction market history after Kalshi had Bolsonaro’s odds as high as 88%.

💱 The Brazilian real plunged more than 10% against the US dollar as the “Bolsonaro trade” unwinds, adding to worries over debt, fiscal health, and the disputed result. A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper on the world market, which is pressuring soybean futures this morning, with corn and wheat also trading lower.

🌽 The USDA corrected its September corn data after a processing error in Kansas and Nebraska, raising Nebraska’s yield to 182 bpa and cutting Kansas to 118 bpa. The national September yield was nudged up to 178.8 bpa, while the October forecast of 181.2 bpa stayed unchanged, adding to doubts about the reliability of USDA crop estimates.

📉 Large money managers were net sellers of 82k corn contracts for the week ending October 20 and have cut their net long by 250k contracts since peaking in mid-September. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 19k SRW wheat contracts.

🫘 USDA’s Brazil attaché forecasts a record 184mmt Brazilian soybean crop, up 2% from last year but below USDA’s official 186mmt estimate. Good rainfall has helped planting, but persistent rain and severe weather in southern Brazil, along with El Niño’s expected effect on harvest, are risks to watch.

🚢 USDA reported a flash sale Friday of 116,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Even so, accumulated corn sales are still running 34% behind last year’s pace.

🐄 Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with September placements falling 12% year over year to a record monthly low of 1.78 million head, the third straight month of record lows. Heifers made up 37.8% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year, which suggests some producers are holding back replacements but are not yet expanding herds aggressively.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🚢 Export Sales Surge—Soybean sales hit 2.8mmt for the week ending Oct 15, well above the prior week and four-week average, with China the top buyer. Corn sales also beat expectations at 1.5mmt (Mexico leading), while wheat disappointed again at just 239,600mt. 📈

🇨🇳 China Flash Sales Continue—USDA reported another flash sale Thursday of 202,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. Since October 14, China has bought roughly 2.4mmt (89mil bushels) of US soybeans via flash sales. 🫘

📊 Grain Futures Update—Dec26 corn slipped ~2¢ to $4.61, and Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~2¢ to $6.25 on harvest pressure and Black Sea peace talk hopes, as a ceasefire could unleash a flood of cheap wheat exports. Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend, climbing ~8¢ to $12.53 on the strong export sales print. 🌾

💧 Drought Monitor—Scattered Corn Belt rains brought no notable relief, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, Indiana, and central Illinois as 30% of the region sits in drought. Meanwhile, rainfall in the Southern Plains improved conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma, giving the HRW wheat crop a welcome boost. 🌧️

🇧🇷 South American Weather—Southern Brazil is forecast to get 1–5 inches above-normal rainfall over the next 15 days, with flooding risks in Paraná that could slow corn and soybean planting. Argentina stays dry through mid-November, though the wheat impact is expected to be minimal. 🌎

🛢️ Oil Prices Spike—Brent jumped 4% to $113.17 (highest close since early May), and WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47 after a Houthi drone targeted Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and a tanker was struck near Oman. The US is reportedly moving a third carrier strike group toward the region, though Middle East crude exports have largely recovered above prewar levels. ⚠️

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume in November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, after Putin agreed following Wednesday’s meeting with US officials. The talks will focus on post-war security guarantees, though deep divisions remain and US-Ukraine ties have frayed after Trump’s diesel export deal with Russia.

🌾📉 Wheat futures tumbled on hopes for improved Black Sea shipping, with Dec26 Chicago wheat down 15 cents to $6.28 and Dec26 KC wheat off 18 cents to $6.73. Corn bounced from a 14-week low to close up about a penny at $4.63, while Nov26 soybeans slipped 3 cents to $12.45 under harvest pressure and record crop expectations.

🌊🌎 Investors are bracing for a potentially historic El Niño, with money managers adjusting portfolios for market disruptions that could last into early 2027. Droughts and floods could hit crop production and push food prices higher, with Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia flagged as most vulnerable.

🇨🇳🫘 USDA announced more soybean flash sales Wednesday, including 134,000mt (5mil bushels) to China for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 165,000mt (6mil bushels) to Spain for the same marketing year.

⛽🌽 US ethanol production climbed to a five-week high at 1.094mil barrels per day, up 2.7% from the prior week but down 1.6% year over year. Stocks rose to 24.56mil barrels, and Corn Belt margins strengthened to a range of 20 to 65 cents per gallon positive.

₿📈 Bitcoin jumped as much as 2.4% to $84,737 Wednesday alongside tech stocks, fueled by strong earnings and AI enthusiasm, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.3 billion over the past month. Analysts cautioned the rally may reflect short covering rather than sustained demand, especially with trading volume remaining flat.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽❓ The Nebraska Corn Board is pressing the USDA for answers after Nebraska’s corn yield was raised 11 bu/acre in the October Crop Production report, following a 6-bushel cut from August to September, even as good-to-excellent ratings have slid since mid-July. The board wants survey counts and response rates, warning that farmers are growing reluctant to fill out USDA surveys as trust in the reports erodes.

📉🌾 Corn fell for a sixth straight session Tuesday, with Dec26 down 5 cents to $4.62 and Nov26 soybeans down ~5 cents to $12.48 on fund liquidation and dry Corn Belt weather that should speed harvest. Expectations for a record soybean crop outweighed renewed Chinese buying, while wheat followed corn and beans lower.

🇨🇳🚢 China’s imports of US soybeans rebounded to 360,878mt in September, up from zero a year ago, but Brazil still supplied 10.7mmt, about 90% of the month’s total. Year-to-date, US imports are down 34% to 11.06mmt while Brazil’s are up 3.4% to 65.84mmt, and China has now bought just over half of its 25mmt purchase commitment.

🇧🇷🗳️ Brazil’s farm lobby could gain major influence if Flávio Bolsonaro, the heavy favorite at ~80% on Polymarket, wins the presidency, since he has pledged to let the farm caucus pick his agriculture minister. Agribusiness would push for cheaper credit and looser environmental rules, though his push for closer US ties could create friction with Brazil’s key buyer, China.

⚡🫘 USDA announced a flash sale of 612,000mt (22mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Tuesday. China has bought 2mmt (77mil bu) through flash sales over the past week, and 2.084mmt across five sales since October 14th.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

📉 Corn and soybean futures closed lower on Monday, with Dec26 corn dropping about 7 cents to $4.67, its lowest settlement since mid-August, and Nov26 soybeans falling 8 cents to roughly $12.54. Dry harvest weather, funds selling out of long positions, and expectations of a record soybean crop weighed on prices, and wheat followed them lower. 🌾

🚜 The US harvest made big gains last week, with corn 44% complete and soybeans 64% complete, but both still trail their five-year averages. Iowa corn and Nebraska soybeans are furthest behind, and winter wheat planting had its slowest week on record. 🐢

🇧🇷 AgRural reports Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, helped by rain across central Brazil. First-crop corn planting is behind last year at 48%, as heavy rain in the south has slowed fieldwork. 🌧️

🚢 Weekly US soybean export inspections hit 2 million metric tons, up 80% from the prior week, with China taking about 64% of the total. Corn and wheat inspections both fell well short of expectations, with wheat shipments down 36% year to date. 📦

⚡ The USDA announced flash sales on Monday of 114,000mt of soybeans to China and 261,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. These new sales add to the recent strength in soybean export demand. 🤝

📈 Tech stocks rebounded Monday, lifting the Nasdaq 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.4% after a rough week driven by hot inflation, doubts about AI profitability, and rising oil prices. Chip stocks led the recovery, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke an eight-session losing streak. 💻

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

🇺🇦 Ukraine Grain Routes — Russian attacks have nearly halted Black Sea shipments, so Zelenskiy is asking Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary to let Ukrainian grain move through their countries. Hungary has signaled it will allow sealed corn trains through, a crucial lifeline since about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports normally move by sea.

🌽 Grains Slide—Soybeans fell to $12.61, and Dec corn dropped to $4.74 as favorable weather is expected to speed harvest this week. Wheat posted its seventh straight weekly decline despite ongoing Black Sea disruptions.

📊 Fund Tracker—Money managers dumped 83k corn contracts last week and have cut their net long by 168k since mid-September. Funds also sold 8k soybean contracts, but their 250k net long position remains near record levels.

🚢 Flash Sales—USDA announced 558,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 236,000mt to unknown destinations. Japan also bought 127,000mt of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year.

📦 Export Sales—Corn sales were strong at 1.1mmt, up 42% from the four-week average, with Mexico leading the way. Soybean sales disappointed at 574,900mt, down 40% from the four-week average, while wheat came in light at 319,900mt.

💸 US Debt Interest—Interest costs on the national debt hit a record $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2026, now the third-largest category of federal spending. Experts say a crisis isn’t imminent, but the growing burden leaves the economy more vulnerable to shocks.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

🫘📉 Soybeans dropped sharply Thursday, with Nov26 down ~14 cents to $12.63/bu, the lowest settlement since late August. Harvest pressure, dry near-term forecasts, and a weak September crush outweighed renewed Chinese demand, while Dec26 corn slipped 3 cents to $4.78 and wheat followed lower.

🏭🛢️ NOPA’s September crush fell to a 13-month low at 296.3 million bushels, down 4.5% from August, as plant maintenance and harvest disruptions slowed processing. Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.05 billion lbs, their lowest since November 2014 and below trade expectations.

🇧🇷🌱 Conab raised Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 181.62mmt and corn to 148.02mmt, with exports of both expected to climb. Acreage growth is the smallest in 20 years amid tight margins and El Niño uncertainty, and Conab’s numbers still differ materially from USDA’s (corn 9mmt higher, soybeans 4.38mmt lower).

🇨🇳🚢 USDA flagged flash sales of 330,000mt of soybeans to China and 283,450mt to unknown destinations for 2026/27. Bloomberg reports China bought another 20 cargoes of US beans late this week, so more flash sales are likely.

💰🔥 The Producer Price Index jumped 1.3% in September, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.3%. Energy led the surge with gasoline up 20% and diesel up 21%, yet odds of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting fell to about 30%.

🌵🗺️ Warm, dry weather worsened drought in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southern Missouri, and northern Kentucky last week. The upside is ideal harvest conditions, helping farmers catch up on corn and soybean progress that’s lagging the five-year average.

🌽⛽ Ethanol output rose 1.1% to 1.065 million barrels per day, while stocks climbed to 23.94 million barrels. Margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, ranging from 5 to 50 cents per gallon positive per Reuters data.

Farmers, please complete our quick/anonymous yield survey! https://forms.gle/rpmAeTstQtgJREFt9

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

📈 Inflation heated up in September, with CPI rising 0.6% month over month and annual inflation hitting 3.7%, topping expectations of 3.6% as gasoline surged 9.1% and fuel oil soared 74% y/y. Ground beef was a rare bright spot, falling 1.3% to $7.06/lb, though markets still see only a 29% chance of a Fed hike on October 28th.

🇨🇳 China’s soybean crushing capacity has grown nearly 20% over the past decade, but operating rates stuck between 55% and 70% are squeezing profits as daily capacity heads past 520,000mt. With an aging population, shifting protein habits, and low-protein feed gaining ground, China’s soymeal demand may be peaking, raising questions about future US soybean purchases.

🚢 USDA confirmed a flash sale Wednesday of 470,000mt (17 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It’s the first US soybean flash sale to China since the September 24 Trump-Xi meeting in Washington.

🌧️ Rain is returning to the Corn Belt after a mostly dry week, with radar active this morning across parts of the western Corn Belt and Plains. Totals look light, though, with few areas topping 1.5" over the next 5 days, while TX, OK, and southern MO see the heaviest amounts.

🫘 Soybeans fell for a third straight session Wednesday, with Nov26 down nearly 7 cents to around $12.77 on mostly favorable weather forecasts. Dec26 corn slipped 2 cents to about $4.81, while wheat posted modest gains on Black Sea shipping concerns.

⚡ Russia accused Ukraine of drone strikes on two western Russian refineries with roughly 540,000 barrels per day of capacity, which Ukraine denied, citing Trump’s proposed energy truce. Meanwhile, Russian strikes reportedly knocked out power and water in Kyiv, and US diesel sits near record highs at $6.30/gal, up 72% y/y.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇨🇳 China Corn Imports: Despite recent tariff relief, US corn is still priced out of China, with imports projected to fall to 3.5mmt and the US supplying just 900,000mt vs. 1.2mmt each from Brazil and Argentina. 📉 Negative import margins and a 5–8mmt jump in China’s domestic production limit upside, though Reuters reports China bought 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans, the first since the Sept 24th Trump/Xi meeting. 🫘

🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest reached 33% and soybeans 46%, both behind the five-year average and marking the slowest weekly pace since 2019. 🌧️ Iowa and Nebraska are furthest behind, while winter wheat planting hit 51% in its slowest week on record. 🌾

🇧🇷 Sorghum Competition: Brazil has more than doubled sorghum output to ~6mmt and shipped its first-ever cargo to China in August, with up to 2.4mmt expected to ship by the end of October. ⚠️ Meanwhile, US sorghum production is forecast to drop 33%, and exports to China have plunged from over $2 billion a decade ago to just $86 million in 2025. 📦

📊 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn held steady near $4.83/bu while Nov26 soybeans slipped 4¢ to ~$12.84/bu, both pressured by advancing harvest. 🌾 Wheat closed lower on technical selling and spillover weakness, with traders shrugging off new Black Sea vessel attacks. ⚓

🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections fell short of expectations at 1.1mmt, though still 27% ahead of last year, with China taking about 59% of the week’s total. 🌽 Corn came in strong at 1.3mmt (+5.3% YTD), while wheat lagged at 304,660mt, down 35% from last year. 📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌊 Super El Niño Watch: US forecasters put the odds at 83% that the developing El Niño ranks among the strongest on record, raising concerns about heat, drought, and excess rain in major growing regions. In Brazil, dryness in the Center-West and north could delay soybean planting and hurt the second-crop corn that follows.

🇷🇺 Russian Grain Cuts: IKAR lowered Russia’s total grain crop to 137mmt and wheat to 88mmt, while trimming wheat exports to 42mmt from 43.5mmt. Most shipments are being rerouted to Baltic terminals, since Black Sea and Azov ports remain closed due to the war.

📈 Markets Recap: Dec26 corn gained about 3 cents to $4.83 on short-covering, while Nov26 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to $12.88 on expectations of a record US crop. Chicago wheat edged higher and KC wheat ticked lower as traders watched Black Sea shipping disruptions.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Outlook: China’s Ag Ministry cut its soybean production estimate 2.8% to 20.36mmt and slashed stocks 25% to 1.75mmt. China is projected to import 115mmt this year, yet USDA hasn’t reported a flash sale to China since September 24th.

⚡ Energy Ceasefire Doubts: President Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy said he learned of it through the media, and Russia struck an energy facility Monday. WTI crude is trading near $92/bbl, and national diesel averages $6.28, down from the record $6.53 set September 21st.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...

🌽 USDA shocked the trade Friday, raising the 2026 US corn yield to 181.2bpa, up from 178.5bpa last month and well above the 177.7bpa trade guess. 📊 Combined with higher beginning stocks, total corn supply jumped a whopping 407mil bushels, only partially offset by a 125mil bushel bump in demand.

📉 Corn futures fell sharply Friday after the “super bearish” USDA report, with Dec26 dropping more than 20 cents to its lowest close since mid-August. 🫘 Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend to gain more than 4 cents, while Dec26 SRW wheat lost more than 12 cents.

💰 The funds were net sellers of 51k corn and 7k SRW wheat contracts during the week ending October 5th, while buying 12k contracts of soybeans. 🔻 Private estimates show they sold another 63k corn, 17k soybean, and 8k SRW wheat contracts on Friday following the USDA report.

☀️ The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry over the weekend, likely allowing harvest to continue or accelerate across the region. 🌀 Rains from Hurricane Isaias soaked the Gulf Coast and mid-south, with Corn Belt rains returning midweek ahead of today’s 3pm CST Crop Progress report.

🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting is moving at a record pace, reaching 19.77% complete vs. 12.86% last year and 11.55% on average, per Patria AgroNegocios. 🌧️ Early, satisfactory rains are aiding progress as USDA projects a record 186mmt crop on a record 123.5mil acres.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...

💰 USDA pegs inflation-adjusted US farm debt at a record $605+ billion, roughly double the 2000 level. 🔍 But officials warn the true number may be even higher, with one economist estimating vendor and nontraditional financing could be 2–3x larger than USDA’s $45 billion figure.

🌽 Grain futures were choppy Thursday, with Dec corn settling near $5.00 and Nov soybeans dropping 10 cents to around $12.87. 📊 Traders are squaring up ahead of today’s Crop Production and WASDE report while keeping an eye on harvest yields.

📋 USDA releases its October WASDE at 11am CST, and the trade expects corn yield and production to be trimmed. 🤔 There’s a 9-bushel gap between the highest and lowest corn yield guesses, while soybean yield is expected to hold steady.

🛢️ Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, a day after strike talk sent Brent crude up more than 4% to above $104. ⛽ Gas is averaging $4.36 a gallon, up about 40% from a year ago, as public support for the war slips to just 31%.

🌧️ Heavy rain of 3 to 6+ inches brought major drought relief to the central and southern Plains, while the core Corn Belt remains drought-free. ☀️ Dry, warm weather through October 12 should fuel a strong harvest push before wetter conditions return.

🚢 Corn export sales jumped to 769,500mt, up 44% week over week, with Mexico and Colombia leading the way. 🌾 Wheat sales were also strong at 451,600mt, while soybean sales slowed 47% despite China buying 382,900mt.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌧️ More Rain for the Corn Belt: Tropical Storm Isaias could bring 1–4 inches of rain to parts of the southeastern Corn Belt, potentially delaying harvest and increasing flooding concerns in saturated areas. 🌽🌧️ The rest of the Corn Belt should remain mostly dry, offering a better harvest window.

📊 USDA Report Friday: Traders expect USDA to lower corn yield and production estimates, while soybean yield and production are expected to remain unchanged. 🌽 Corn ending stocks are expected to rise, while soybean stocks decline slightly and wheat stocks edge higher.

⛽ Ethanol Production Rebounds: U.S. ethanol output jumped 4.6% last week to 1.05M barrels/day, while stocks fell 1% to 23.74M barrels. 📈 Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, ranging from breakeven to +40¢/gal.

🏠 Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Year High: The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, marking seven straight weeks of increases. 📉 Mortgage applications fell 4.2%, with overall volume now nearly 50% below January levels.

🏦 Fed Keeps Rate Hike on the Table: Fed officials still see another rate hike as likely before year-end, although the timing is uncertain. 📈 Inflation remains above the 2% target, while rising energy costs and supply constraints could complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation lower.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple PodcastsSpotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 Soybeans: Harvest delays fueled a grain market rally, with Nov26 soybeans jumping 22¢ to $13.03. Corn gained 11¢ to $5.08, while wheat also finished higher. 🌧️

📉 Farmer Sentiment: Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 as concerns over input costs and U.S. soybean competitiveness weighed on sentiment. A record 52% cited input costs as their top concern. 🇧🇷

⛽ Fuel Costs: The Trump administration is considering suspending the 18.4¢/gal federal gas tax, but the move would require congressional approval and could cost billions in lost revenue. 🚗

🇨🇳 China Demand: Trump said China will double its purchases of U.S. agricultural products, but it remains unclear whether the purchases would be in addition to existing commitments. China has fulfilled about 42% of its 2026 U.S. soybean commitment so far.

🐄 Cattle: Additional U.S. beef imports have fallen well short of expectations, with an estimated 8%–22% of the September allocation entering the country. Strong consumer demand and a rally in equities helped send live cattle up nearly $4 to $5.30 and feeders up $6.65 to $9.58.