Podcast
Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)
The audio podcast feed for Davis Mattek’s DFS, fantasy football, and best ball streams on the Davis Mattek YouTube channel and elsewhere.
- Fantasy Sports chart
- #31
- Episodes
- 172
- Releases
- Daily
- Typical length
- 58 min
- On air since
- 2025
- Latest episode
- 1 day ago
Episodes
172 episodes, newest first
-
2 hr 13 min
Week 8 Recap and MNF Preview
Episode 436
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Two Top-1,000 Best Ball Mania Teams
0:01:13 - Third QB Lesson: Why Two-QB Builds Fall Short
0:04:13 - BBM Portfolio: 30 of 150 Teams Advancing
0:05:38 - Advance Cutline & Ken Walker’s 28% Advance Rate
0:06:37 - Leaderboard: Pineapple420’s 1,224-Point Team & Eli Stowers
0:09:09 - Eagles Tank Talk & Saquon Barkley Trade Odds
0:11:10 - Bubble Teams: Lowest-Scoring Advancers
0:13:50 - Caleb Williams & Luther Burden MNF Sweats
0:16:15 - Zero WR Points Team & Best Ball Variance Rant
0:18:33 - Week 8 Haves & Have-Nots: Team-by-Team Airballs
0:20:00 - Big Board Sweats & the Four-QB Question
0:21:36 - Smashed All Year, Dead in Playoffs? Hubbard & Pollard
0:23:07 - Full Portfolio: 460 Advancing vs. 438 Expected
0:24:13 - Little Dalmatian Flop: Mike Washington Auto-Draft Mistake
0:28:49 - Chuba Hubbard vs. Jeremiyah Love Rest of Season
0:31:57 - The Real Dead List: Season-Ending Injuries
0:38:30 - Fade Every Dead Player: Still Only ~24% Advance
0:39:54 - Spiritually Dead List: Flowers, Worthy, Henry
0:40:25 - Ashton Jeanty Defense: “You’re All Being Dramatic”
0:44:11 - Final Dead List & Best Surviving BBM Team
0:46:38 - Perfect Team Exercise: Best Pick Each Round
0:47:51 - Round 3 Debate: Trey McBride Over Josh Allen
0:50:32 - Round 5: Christian Watson Over Bhayshul Tuten
0:53:49 - Round 6 Jaylen Warren & How Hard Best Ball Is
0:56:02 - Best QB Pick? Purdy & QB Advance Rates
0:57:30 - J.J. McCarthy + Nabers + Likely Rabbit Hole
1:02:27 - Calling Out Tony Squares’ McCarthy Stack
1:07:23 - Worst Teams: Davis’s Chargers Disaster
1:09:11 - Peter Overzet’s Worst Best Ball Team
1:10:30 - Dead-Last Team in Best Ball Mania
1:14:58 - Worst Non-Chargers Team & Achane-Brooks Advancer
1:23:57 - DraftKings “Currently Winning” Ticket EV Explained
1:26:21 - Dynasty Trade: Jeanty, Coleman & Firsts for Puka
1:28:00 - Dynasty Rebuild Review: Sell Tyler Shough Now
1:29:31 - Rebuild Target: Trade for Jackson Dart & Achane
1:32:50 - Davis’s Win-Now Dynasty Trades for Zay Flowers
1:36:44 - DK Best & Worst Teams: 1,337-Point Wagon
1:38:33 - FFPC Matchup Recap & Burrow-Chase Stack Loss
1:42:40 - NFFC Check & A.D. Mitchell Start Regrets
1:44:48 - Drafters High Roller Check
1:46:55 - Eliminator Sweat: All on Luther Burden
1:48:43 - Splash Touchdown Survivor: $5K on the Line
1:52:10 - Guillotine League Eliminations & FAB Check
1:54:56 - MNF Showdown Build: Low-Owned Bears on Run the Sims
1:57:55 - DraftKings First TD & Prop Boost Hunt
2:01:41 - Seahawks RB Logjam: Price Activated, Will Wilson Play?
2:05:56 - Sim Results & Final Showdown Lineup
2:08:39 - Underdog Pick’em: MNF Six-Flexer
2:12:40 - Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
35 min
What Mattered in Week 8?
Episode 435
Show notes
Davis recaps things that mattered in Week 8 of the NFL season.
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-
49 min
Week 8 Gillcast
Episode 434
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Week 8 Cash Recap: No Playable Tight Ends
0:57 - Cash Must-Plays: Puka, Braelon Allen, Rhamondre, Wan’Dale
4:10 - Cash QB Options and Dak Prescott Chalk
4:54 - Why $8K RBs Were Fades, Huge RB Value Pool
8:11 - Gunnar Helm and the Worst Tight End Slate
10:29 - Cade Otton vs. Mark Andrews, Bucs Pass-Rate Debate
12:38 - Baker Mayfield Dropbacks Bet: Signal vs. Noise
14:03 - Davis’ Cash Lineup: Ja’Marr Chase, Hunter Henry
16:02 - Puka Nacua vs. Ja’Marr Chase: Floor and Projections
17:48 - Rams Run-Heavy vs. Chargers: Lower Puka Expectations
23:19 - Bhayshul Tuten vs. Chase Brown Debate
26:36 - Zay Flowers 78% Owned Cash Zero
28:33 - Davis GPP: Profitable Burrow-Chase Lineup
30:24 - Davis Double Spy: Lamar Injury Sinks Titans Build
32:33 - Davis’ Big Spy: Baker-Bucs Stack Sunk by Weather
34:53 - Sammy’s Big Spy Lineup: Jacoby Brissett Stack
40:07 - Nate’s Spy Lineup: Dak, Jahmyr Gibbs, WR in Flex
43:02 - Nate’s Main Event: Trevor Lawrence-Brenton Strange Stack
48:23 - Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
31 min
Week 8 RB Rankings
Episode 433
Show notes
Davis breaks down his RB rankings for Week 8 of the NFL slate.
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-
51 min
Week 8 NFL Picks
Episode 432
Show notes
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Lions -3 vs. Vikings: Goff Shreds the Blitz
03:14 - Goff 30-1 MVP Bet & Vikings’ Soft Schedule
05:25 - Falcons +2.5 at Bucs: Penix vs. Banged-Up Baker
09:45 - Underdog Pick’em: Jeremiyah Love Anytime TD vs. Cowboys
13:14 - Garrett Wilson Receptions: Coaches Promise Early Targets
15:37 - Bhayshul Tuten 13+ Fantasy Points vs. Colts
18:03 - Antonio Williams Receptions With McLaurin Out
21:50 - 8-Leg TD Parlay: Derrick Henry Mispriced
24:12 - Chase Brown Squeaky Wheel TD
26:30 - Michael Wilson TD vs. Depleted Cowboys
27:42 - Kenneth Walker Anytime TD at Denver
31:47 - Bijan Robinson Buy-Low Bounce Back
32:38 - Luther Burden Breakout With Cole Kmet Out
34:20 - Jahmyr Gibbs Final Leg & Parlay Recap
35:58 - Survivor: Dave’s 49ers/Jaguars Big Splash Entries
37:07 - Save the Jaguars? Bengals Chalk Case
39:49 - Contrarian Case for the Commanders
42:18 - Eagles Tank Angle Boosts Commanders
43:59 - Selling Equity & Chops in Big Survivor Pools
45:35 - Survivor Lesson: Don’t Just Take Big Favorites
47:22 - Final Survivor Picks & Patriots Ownership💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjR...
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-
1 hr 19 min
The Absolute Best Week 8 NFL DFS Plays
Episode 431
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Jaylen Warren vs. Rico Dowdle Steelers Backfield
0:02:24 - KC Concepcion After His Breakout Game
0:05:37 - Quinshon Judkins Usage With Dylan Sampson Back
0:08:14 - Vikings vs. Lions: Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson Outlook
0:11:07 - Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Flores Blitz, LaPorta Risk
0:14:15 - Amon-Ra St. Brown & Jordan Mason Without Aaron Jones
0:15:59 - Raiders vs. Jets: Ashton Jeanty Gold Star Debate
0:18:36 - Breece Hall vs. Braelon Allen Split
0:19:39 - Jets Pass Catchers & Garrett Wilson Gold Star
0:22:23 - Ravens vs. Bills: Zay Flowers in Every Lineup
0:24:20 - Low-Owned Ravens/Bills: Kincaid, Ja’Kobi Lane, DJ Moore
0:26:56 - Derrick Henry as a Game-Stack Pivot
0:27:49 - Colts vs. Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten Workload
0:29:51 - Parker Washington Gold Star Case
0:34:24 - Bengals vs. Titans: Ja’Marr Chase Gold Star
0:38:27 - Falcons vs. Bucs: Bijan Robinson Low-Owned Hammer
0:40:33 - Bucky Irving Second-Half Breakout Case
0:41:13 - Emeka Egbuka Fade & Cheap Bucs Receivers
0:42:39 - Kenneth Gainwell Injury & Bucky Irving Workload
0:45:25 - Cowboys vs. Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love Ownership Debate
0:49:50 - George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb & Ryan Flournoy
0:51:23 - Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride & Chase vs. Lamb
0:53:17 - Chargers vs. Rams: Puka Nacua & Ladd McConkey
0:54:44 - Mike McDaniel Boat Bit & Omarion Hampton
0:58:31 - Patriots vs. Dolphins: Is A.J. Brown Washed?
1:00:26 - Patriots Leverage: Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, Drake Maye
1:02:54 - Chiefs vs. Broncos & Sean Payton Rant
1:07:08 - Kenneth Walker Late-Swap Strategy
1:08:34 - DraftKings Lineup Build
1:12:00 - Weak TE Pool: Punting Charlie Kolar
1:16:15 - The P-Line: Tyler Goodson Handcuff Theory
1:18:30 - Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
59 min
Arguing the Inputs - Week 8
Episode 430
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Vikings: Aaron Jones Status & Jordan Mason Value
4:33 - Titans: Tony Pollard Bell Cow Role
6:20 - Bengals: Chase Brown Usage vs. Pass-Heavy Script
9:13 - Bucs: Egbuka Injury & Cheap Pass-Catcher Pivots
11:26 - Falcons: Bijan Receiving Dip & Kyle Pitts Volatility
14:20 - Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love Status & Michael Wilson
18:28 - Cowboys: Lamb vs. Pickens Target Split
20:29 - Raiders: Tre Tucker Target Share Debate
23:27 - Jets: Breece Hall Return & Crowded Pass Catchers
26:48 - Ravens: Lamar Status, Lane vs. Bateman, Mark Andrews
29:50 - Bills: DJ Moore Target Share Upside
32:23 - Colts Fire Sale: Downs Trade Request Fallout
36:12 - Jaguars: Tuten vs. C-Rod, Brian Thomas Jr. Trade Watch
40:17 - Browns: KC Concepcion Breakout Game
42:20 - Steelers: Metcalf vs. Germie Bernard, Warren-Dowdle Split
45:53 - Chargers Injury Mess: McConkey, Harris, Kolar
48:23 - Rams: Corum vs. Kyren Split & Tight End Mess
51:00 - Chiefs: Offense Collapse & Kenneth Walker Outlook
52:56 - Broncos: Jonah Coleman Backfield & Waddle Injury
55:25 - Patriots: Rhamondre vs. Henderson Drive Rotation
57:09 - Dolphins: Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell
58:50 - Wrap-Up💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
1 hr 53 min
Week 7 Recap & Week 8 Preview
Episode 429
Show notes
Sign Up And Try Out Sport.Fun: https://pro.sport.fun/nfl/join?partne...
40% Off Of LiveLineIQ w/ code DAVIS: app.livelineiq.com/davis
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Week 7 BBM Advance Rate Check (26 Teams)
0:02:10 - Xavier Worthy: Elite Route Volume, No Production
0:03:58 - Mahomes’ Bad Game and Andy Reid’s Conservatism
0:07:04 - Non-Advancing BBM Teams Review
0:10:25 - Full Underdog Portfolio Check Across Side Contests
0:15:39 - How Top BBM Users Advance: Exposure Breakdown
0:18:48 - More Top Users: Flat Exposures, Bad Picks
0:21:54 - Highest Advance Rate Players (JSN 39%)
0:24:26 - QB Advance Rates: Herbert at 6.3%
0:25:46 - TE Advance Rates: McBride Leads
0:26:47 - WR Advance Rates: JSN Up, Chase and Ladd Down
0:31:15 - RB Advance Rates: Barkley at 3.6%
0:33:00 - Jadarian Price Bust and Charbonnet Mystery
0:34:12 - Rachaad White Thesis Wins, JCM Thesis Fails
0:35:40 - Kyler Murray Dead Last in Success Rate
0:38:18 - BBM Dead List: Season-Ending Injuries
0:42:29 - Top-Scoring Teams With Zero Dead Players
0:44:15 - Building the Spiritually Dead List
0:53:13 - DraftKings Best Ball Portfolio Check
0:58:48 - Underdog Eliminator Sweats
1:04:57 - ROS Rankings Update: Quarterbacks
1:07:05 - ROS Rankings Update: Running Backs
1:12:26 - ROS Rankings Update: WRs, JSN Alone in Tier 1
1:16:49 - ROS Rankings Update: Tight Ends and T-Ferg News
1:19:41 - NFFC High-Stakes Team Check
1:21:01 - FFPC Week 7 Results Review
1:25:25 - Pick’em: Spann-Ford, Barkley, Lemon, Javonte Williams
1:28:45 - Eli Stowers First TD Bet and Trade News
1:31:17 - Chiefs WR Trade Targets: BTJ, Parker Washington
1:34:36 - Week 8 PTP Draft From 1.02
1:40:34 - Week 8 Main Slate: Elite RB Matchups
1:44:43 - Week 8 Playbook Draft Build
1:48:43 - Saquon Hamstring News and AJ Brown Panic💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
50 min
Week 7 NFL Recap - Gillcast
Episode 428
Show notes
Sign Up And Try Out Sport.Fun: https://pro.sport.fun/nfl/join?partne...
40% Off Of LiveLineIQ w/ code DAVIS: app.livelineiq.com/davis
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Week 7 Cash Slate Was Less Obvious Than Usual
1:10 - Egbuka Out Skews Projections to Cade Otton
3:55 - Jordan Love Chalk QB and Cash Locks (CMC, Golden, Kittle)
7:25 - Nate's Bo Nix Play and How He Got There
9:31 - Optimizers Pushing Otton; Lineups Felt Fragile
12:35 - Davis's Cash Lineup: Bucs Defense Bails Out a Bad Team
17:36 - Braylon Allen's Workload Deserves More Respect
18:42 - Davis Admits Cowardly Lineup; Cash Line Check
20:24 - Nate's Puka Nacua in Cash Over CMC
26:40 - Sammy's Cash Lineup and the Fading Bijan Debate
28:47 - Woody Marks: 19 Carries at $5,600
30:01 - Otton's Capped Ceiling; Paying Down at RB Without Puka
32:31 - Davis's GPP Lineups: Red Zone, Waddle, Higbee
35:15 - Midseason Millionaire and Late Swaps Into Nix/Puka/Waddle
40:38 - Sammy's Burrow/Chase/Higgins Big Spy Stack
44:41 - Davis's Baker Mayfield Stack at 1% Ownership
46:32 - Puka Was a Great Tournament Play; Davante Adams Red Zone Effect
49:08 - GPP Shutout, Cash Sweep, Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
58 min
Week 7 Picks, Props and Survivor Pool Picks
Episode 427
Show notes
Sign Up And Try Out Sport.Fun: https://pro.sport.fun/nfl/join?partne...
UD Plays: https://play.underdogsports.com/vgwg/...
40% Off Of LiveLineIQ w/ code DAVIS: app.livelineiq.com/davis
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro: Davis 5-1 ATS, Bears Undervalued
0:47 - Davis ATS Pick: Jets -4.5 vs Dolphins
4:50 - Nez ATS Pick: Vikings -6.5 vs Colts
9:12 - Underdog 4-Pick Flex Math Explained
10:47 - Cade Otton 3.5+ Receptions (No Egbuka, No Evans)
12:51 - Ollie Gordon Under 59.5 Rush + Rec Yards
15:52 - Woody Marks Anytime TD (Texans Backfield Depth)
20:20 - Jalen Coker 22.5+ Longest Reception
22:04 - 4-Pick Entry Recap & Move The Chains Boost
27:30 - 8-Leg TD Parlay: Kenneth Walker Revenge Game
28:49 - Germie Bernard & Isaiah Likely TDs (J.J. McCarthy)
31:49 - George Kittle National Tight End Day TD
33:17 - Derrick Henry TD vs Bengals
34:13 - Matthew Golden vs Christian Watson Debate
36:02 - Chuba Hubbard & Christian McCaffrey TDs
37:53 - Final 8-Leg TD Parlay Recap (312x)
41:44 - Survivor: Davis Lost Four Entries on Rams
43:42 - Survivor Week 7: Texans vs Vikings Future Schedules
46:52 - Jets & Chargers Schedules as Survivor Angles
51:55 - Final Answer: Vikings Over Texans, Colts Have No Path
54:01 - Broncos vs Cardinals Survivor Option
56:34 - Final Survivor Rankings & Outro🦆SIGN UP FOR FLOCK FANTASY (Rankings, Advice, Personalized Questions → https://flockfantasy.com/signup?code=...
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1 hr 6 min
Week 7 - Thinking About DFS
Episode 426
Show notes
Sign Up And Try Out Sport.Fun: https://pro.sport.fun/nfl/join?partne...
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Giants-Texans, Malik Nabers & J.J. McCarthy
0:04:11 - Is Kevin O’Connell Really a QB Whisperer?
0:10:04 - Colts-Vikings: Kyler Murray/Justin Jefferson Stack, Keenan Allen
0:15:40 - 49ers-Falcons: McCaffrey Mega Chalk, Bijan vs. Gibbs
0:16:42 - Christian Kirk Depends Entirely on Ownership
0:20:42 - Kittle, Double-TE Weeks & DK Tight End Pricing
0:22:22 - Bengals-Ravens Hinges on Lamar Jackson Status
0:23:44 - If Lamar Plays: Chase Brown, Ja’Kobi Lane, Flowers
0:26:21 - Dolphins-Jets: Braylon Allen Every-Lineup Play
0:27:37 - Jets Run-Heavy Script, Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr.
0:31:22 - Browns-Titans: Carnell Tate, KC Concepcion, Judkins/Sampson
0:33:56 - Bucs-Panthers: Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving with Baker Back
0:36:38 - Chris Godwin Jr. Washed, Egbuka’s Empty Volume
0:39:00 - McMillan & Coker Pricing, Jalen Coker’s Ascent
0:40:23 - Broncos-Cardinals: Jaylen Waddle, Bo Nix Disaster
0:44:59 - Michael Wilson, Pat Surtain Status, Trey McBride
0:46:49 - Packers-Lions: Gibbs, Love/Golden vs. Goff/St. Brown Stacks
0:51:25 - Josh Jacobs Return & Packers Run Rate
0:55:03 - Rams-Raiders: No Davante Adams, Konata Mumpfield
0:57:23 - Rams TE Roles (Parkinson vs. Higbee), Blake Corum Leverage
1:00:14 - Milly Maker Lineup Build (Bucky Irving Gold Star)
1:04:49 - Outro & Thinking About Thinking💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
53 min
Week 7 - Arguing the Inputs
Episode 425
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Jalen Coker vs. Tetairoa McMillan Target Share & Pricing
0:01:55 - Bucky Irving Rush Share, Sean Tucker, Mayfield Return
0:04:57 - 49ers WRs Without Evans: Christian Kirk vs. Brandon Cooks
0:09:19 - Just Play More Kittle & McCaffrey
0:11:31 - Ja’Kobi Lane at $3,400, Josh Cuevas Rising
0:13:52 - Malik Washington: Nuking Dolphins Pass Efficiency
0:16:16 - Breece Hall Out, Braelon Allen Chalk Week
0:17:47 - Jets WR Routes: Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell, Cooper Jr.
0:18:36 - Mason Taylor Reinstalled Over Kenyon Sadiq
0:19:49 - Is Geno Playable at $5,100?
0:20:32 - JJ McCarthy Starting for the Giants
0:21:52 - Malik Nabers & Isaiah Likely Still Underpriced
0:25:45 - Skattebo/Tracy/Singletary: No Way to Make Playable
0:27:01 - Keenan Allen Mogging Josh Downs
0:29:19 - Jordan Mason Back, Aaron Jones Out, Hockenson Return
0:31:08 - Browns Backfield: Sampson, McLaughlin, Estimé Projection
0:33:55 - Carnell Tate Target Share Must Go Up
0:35:54 - JK Dobbins Mogging, Jaylen Waddle Due for a Smash
0:37:11 - Bo Nix Target Variance & Record-Low aDOT
0:38:53 - Jeremiah Love Return vs. Bam Knight & Allgeier
0:42:09 - Michael Wilson Ownership & Trey McBride First Read
0:44:11 - Rams Without Davante Adams: Mumpfield, Whittington, Higbee, Atwell
0:49:07 - Josh Jacobs Rush Share & Packers Pass Rate
0:51:17 - Golden, Watson, Savion Williams WR3 Routes
0:52:40 - Detroit Easiest Team to Project / Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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2 hr 14 min
Still the Best to Ever Do It
Episode 424
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro: Gibbs & Walker Having All-Time Seasons
1:17 - Half the League Has No Fantasy-Relevant Players
2:57 - BBM Advance Rate Leaderboard Walkthrough (Walker, Hubbard, Watson)
3:12 - Jaylen Warren & Rico Dowdle Timeshare
3:51 - Davante Adams Injury & Bad Injury Reporting
5:49 - Second Round Wasteland: Who Are You Happy With?
6:48 - Matthew Golden Leads NFL in Unrealized Air Yards
7:28 - Kyren Williams Mouthing Off to Beat Writers
9:21 - Tuten Game & Davis’s Jeremy Bernard Exposure
11:32 - Davis’s BBM Portfolio & Top Team
12:25 - Why Kenneth Walker Is Better in KC Than Seattle
13:27 - Scanning First/Second Place Teams on BBMDB
16:51 - Cam Skattebo Benched
18:41 - Only ~30 Players Matter This Year
20:04 - Which Offenses Feed Their Best Players? (Team-by-Team)
22:43 - Bengals Condensed Offense Debate
25:35 - Overall Portfolio & Auto-Draft Dalmatian Experiment
26:27 - NBA Best Ball Exposure, Overlay & Draft Young Guys
30:18 - The Dead List: Season-Ending Injuries
36:24 - The Spiritually Dead List
41:21 - Filtering BBM to Teams With No Dead Players
43:20 - Lesson: You Can Take Multiple Zeros and Still Advance
49:10 - sport.fun Lineup Recap & Pack Opening
53:36 - Eliminator Sweats: Mike Evans Needs 8 Points
58:04 - Grading Davis’s Season-Long Decisions (Golden, Worthy, Downs, Helm)
1:01:05 - Wish I Did 3-5-7-3 Harder & Chuba Hubbard Exposure
1:02:05 - NFFC High Stakes Teams Check-In
1:03:07 - FFPC All-Play Week Check-In
1:07:09 - Spite Main: Peter Benches Jeremy Bernard
1:10:16 - DraftKings SPY Recap: Bijan Over Walker Mistake
1:11:00 - Josh Dombrowski Underdog Shipper & No Broncos Cope
1:12:36 - DraftKings Best Ball: Advancing 28 Teams
1:15:55 - Pre-Draft Teams & Top Scoring DK Team
1:17:02 - Streaming Years Comparison: 9% to Great Season
1:18:43 - SF/WAS Showdown Inputs & Christian Kirk Call
1:21:49 - Touchdown Survivor Dead & Guillotine League Update
1:25:35 - Showdown Sim Results & Jayden Daniels Captain Build
1:31:30 - Slaughter Island Advancing 68 BBM Teams
1:32:07 - Pick’em Build Attempt (Desktop Site Tilt)
1:37:07 - PTP Draft: Caleb Williams Stack (Bears/Patriots Thursday)
1:40:41 - Texans Confusing Usage: Tank Dell, Noel, Bootie
1:42:31 - Main Slate Preview & Q-Tags
1:43:52 - Colston Loveland Rest of Season Outlook
1:46:21 - First Touchdown Market & Christian Kirk Bet
1:47:17 - Jacoby Lane Full-Time Role & Huntley Fakeout
1:49:51 - Tight End Scrolls & Terrance Ferguson IR Timing
1:51:31 - Rest of Season Rankings Update (Lane, Price, Loveland, Golden)
1:55:40 - Nuking Skattebo & His 11% Advance Rate
1:58:17 - Who Has the Most Justin Herbert & Gunner Helm Teams?
1:59:58 - Unreported Commanders Injury Rant
2:01:47 - Romeo Doubs on IR & Commanders Roster Shuffle
2:03:10 - Rankings Update: Jacobs Up, Rashod White Boost, Ekeler Pickup
2:05:12 - Main BR Up but Small (NBA Focus)
2:07:19 - Main BR Draft: Bijan, Hubbard, Infinity Golden, Kirk Ruled Out
2:12:04 - Drafters High Stakes Check & Wrap-Up💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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36 min
What Mattered in Week 6
Episode 423
Show notes
Davis cuts through some of the noise and talks about things that mattered in Week 6 of the NFL season before Monday Night Football.
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-
49 min
The Worst NFL DFS Lineup I've Ever Seen
Episode 422
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Week 6 Slate Recap: Only One Premium Player, Cheap Values Everywhere
1:24 - Jahmyr Gibbs 66% Owned Last Week, Nate and Davis Dupe Each Other
2:00 - Cash QB Options: Stafford, Caleb Williams, Tanner McKee
3:35 - Sammy Played Deshaun Watson at QB
4:56 - Chuba Hubbard Was the Best RB Play on the Slate
6:19 - Rams Aren’t Good: Kyren Williams and the Blake Corum TD
9:10 - Caleb Williams vs. Stafford: Was Caleb a Cash Play?
10:42 - Davis and Nate’s Duped Cash Lineup
11:06 - Drake London Over Malik Nabers Regret
13:16 - Kyren 63% and Germie Bernard 54% Owned: There’s Still an Edge
14:05 - Isaiah Likely Was the Easiest TE Play; Failed Lock Swaps
15:47 - Xavier Worthy vs. Dallas Goedert Debate
17:06 - KC Concepcion Over Worthy and Bernard
18:55 - Sammy’s Worst Lineup Ever vs. Optimal
20:23 - Drake London Is Too Slow (Bucky Irving Comparison)
21:42 - Ranking Sammy’s Cash Mistakes: Likely, Concepcion Over Bernard
24:30 - Bijan Robinson Over Ken Walker: Record-Low Usage at That Salary
27:11 - Tournaments: D’Andre Swift and Davis’s “Nate Team”
28:14 - Davis’s Big GPP Team: Post-Lock Sims and Walker Over Bijan
30:04 - Combo Ownership: Worthy/Bernard, Bijan/Puka, Titans D
32:14 - Nate’s SPY Team: Rhamondre After the TreVeyon Henderson News
34:28 - Sammy’s SPY Team: Four Rams and Kelce in the Flex
35:00 - Is Stafford Dust? Vegas Still Favors the Rams
36:51 - Kelce With Rashee Rice Out; London/Burden Dome Correlation
37:35 - Rome Odunze vs. Luther Burden
38:34 - Playing the WR2 When the WR1 Is Chalk; Davante Adams Caps Puka
40:08 - Davis’s Bad Red Zone Lineup: Tanner McKee and Josh Downs at $5,800
42:46 - Nate’s Milly Maker Team: Daniel Jones, Downs, Keenan Allen
44:31 - Why Nate Faded Chuba Hubbard (Trevor Etienne Usage)
47:41 - Shoutout to Josh Dombrowski: First Place in the Main
48:30 - Friend’s Brevyn Spann-Ford Anytime TD Parlay💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
1 hr 18 min
Thinking About DFS for Week 6
Episode 421
Show notes
Davis talks DFS for Week 6 of the NFL slate.
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Bijan vs. Walker Ownership & Bears Defense
0:02:48 - Drake London Chalk vs. Bears? Fade
0:04:03 - Bears Passing Game: Burden, Loveland, Odunze Targets
0:07:48 - Why Bears Pass Catchers Have Disappointed
0:12:58 - D’Andre Swift Hip Injury & Caleb Double Stack
0:14:58 - Ravens vs. Browns: Derrick Henry Low-Owned Spot
0:17:05 - Cheap WR Punts: Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Bond, KC Concepcion
0:19:16 - Panthers at Eagles: Chuba Hubbard Gold Star Play
0:21:34 - Tetairoa McMillan Tough Matchup & Goedert Value
0:23:25 - Rhamondre Stevenson Chalk vs. Jets: Go Underweight
0:26:15 - Garrett Wilson Targets & Patriots Pass Catcher Randomness
0:28:26 - Titans at Colts: Josh Downs Overpriced on DraftKings
0:31:56 - Saints at Giants: Likely, Nabers & Stacking the Game
0:35:22 - Saints RBs, Alvin Kamara & Brian Flores Effect
0:38:47 - Bucky Irving Goal Line Role & Jalon Daniels Targets
0:41:56 - Jaylen Warren vs. Rico Dowdle Workload Split
0:44:17 - Germie Bernard: Cheap Chalk WR Worth Eating
0:47:02 - DK Metcalf & the Rounds 6-10 WR Graveyard
0:49:02 - Cardinals at Rams: Puka Nacua as Slate Chalk
0:53:05 - Michael Wilson & Trey McBride Garbage-Time Points
0:56:46 - Rams RB Target Share Spike & Puka Fade Case
0:59:43 - Chargers at Chiefs: Walker vs. Emmett Johnson Workload
1:00:59 - Chiefs WRs Without Rice: Cyrus Allen, Jalen Royals
1:04:00 - Mahomes, Walker & Xavier Worthy Chalk
1:07:10 - Bills at Raiders: Allen, Cook & Dalton Kincaid
1:11:26 - Brock Bowers Ceiling & Two-TE Lineup Builds
1:13:35 - DraftKings Lineup Build: Chris Olave Gold Star💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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45 min
Week 5 Gillcast with Adam Levitan
Episode 420
Show notes
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro: Adam Levitan Fills In for Sammy
00:52 - Obvious Cash Build & Jaylen Warren Want Play
02:48 - Bourne, Michael Wilson & Trey Harris Receiver Calls
08:02 - Arizona’s Pass-Heavy Script & McBride Garbage-Time TD
10:17 - McBride and Gibbs Shockingly Low Cash Ownership
12:44 - Identical Lineups: Emanuel Wilson vs. Braylon Allen
13:56 - Levitan’s Four Reasons for Emanuel Wilson
17:36 - Roman Wilson and Antonio Williams in Cash
19:11 - Braylon Allen Talent vs. Jets Team Context
22:47 - Everyone Won: The No-Sweat Chalk Slate
24:25 - GPP: Davis’s Tyson Bagent Late-Swap Dilemma
27:25 - Swift Tournament Fade & Luther Burden Obsession
29:53 - Levitan’s Brissett Skinny Stack GPP Team
32:21 - Dolphins Fade & Achane as Worst Round 2 Pick
35:30 - Nate’s Drake Maye, Efton Chism Contrarian Lineup
38:33 - Nate’s Plan: Fading DET-ARI Onslaughts, Warren Leverage
41:17 - Kyler-Jefferson Lineup Sim Check & Kolar News
43:38 - Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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-
45 min
Week 5 Picks
Episode 419
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro & Broncos -3 Over Chargers Pick
2:47 - Dave’s Pick: Lions -5.5 vs. Cardinals
6:13 - Cowboys Loss Rant: Jake Ferguson & Play Design
8:28 - Underdog Picks: D’Andre Swift Longest Rush Prop
12:20 - Courtland Sutton Over & Buy-Low Model Case
15:55 - Dameon Pierce & Eagles Backfield Shakeup
19:03 - Malik Nabers Props & Hurricane Weather Concerns
21:31 - Braylon Allen & Jets Backfield Split
23:17 - Marvin Harrison Jr. Receptions Plug-Your-Nose Play
24:43 - Luther Burden Receiving Yards Over
27:01 - Jaylen Noel Overs After Coach Speak
30:38 - Survivor: Cowboys Loss Nukes the Field
34:55 - Texans as the “LOL No Way They Lose” Pick
36:19 - Contrarian Survivor Angle: Fading the Jaguars
37:11 - Falcons Leverage vs. Tyler Huntley
38:26 - Broncos as Survivor Leverage & Future Schedule
39:28 - Future Value Strategy: Why Falcons Are Best
42:19 - Final Entries: Falcons, Texans, Broncos Split
44:01 - Outro💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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1 hr 10 min
Thinking About DFS for Week 5
Episode 418
Show notes
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1 hr 44 min
Am I The Best To Ever Do It?
Episode 417
Show notes
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Timestamps:
0:00:00 - Intro: Hot Start With 37 BBM Teams Advancing
0:01:19 - Busted Stars: Puka, Chase, Barkley Advance Rates
0:05:42 - Tyreek Hill Expected to Sign With Chiefs
0:09:52 - Chiefs WR Trade Targets and Salary Cap Limits
0:15:09 - Pitch: Chiefs Should Trade for Adonai Mitchell
0:19:35 - Reviewing My Top Best Ball Mania Teams
0:23:23 - Bubble Teams Close to Advancing
0:28:27 - Dead Players List: 34% Advance Rate Without Them
0:37:12 - Eliminator and Big Elim Survival Check
0:44:09 - Portfolio Check and Kenneth Walker Best Pick at Cost
0:46:24 - Chuba Hubbard 37%, Bryce + Chuba Stack 57%
0:48:50 - Barkley/Etienne Combo Busts, Emanuel Wilson Hits
0:55:02 - Rashee Rice Regret and Tyreek Hill Outlook
0:58:34 - MNF Pick'em: Saints vs. Falcons Props
1:04:11 - Drafters, Survival and Guillotine League Check
1:09:04 - MNF Showdown Sims and Oscar Delp First TD Bet
1:13:15 - Big Board Teams and 43 Kenneth Walker Teams
1:15:15 - Building the Delp/Bijan Showdown Lineup
1:18:52 - FFPC High Stakes and Dynasty Check
1:25:07 - NFC First-Place Teams: Am I the Best Ever?
1:27:29 - Prime Time Palooza Draft
1:32:16 - Week 5 First-Look BR: Vegas Totals Are Low
1:35:33 - Week 5 Chalk: Jared Goff and Chase Brown
1:40:46 - Luther Burden vs. Matthew Golden Debate💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → / @davis_mattek
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