Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Cliff Sosin is the founder of CAS Investment Partners, which he started in 2012. Roughly 80% of his portfolio is in Carvana.

We discuss why Cliff thinks there are hard limits to what even the smartest AI can predict, which businesses benefit as intelligence gets cheap, and what that means for Meta and the frontier labs.

We also cover why he avoids investing in the AI build-out, how AI agents will push customers to the lowest-cost provider, and why he is comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in one stock.

Please enjoy my conversation with Cliff Sosin.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

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⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

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Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

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WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

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Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

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⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Why Intelligence Has Limits

(00:02:34) Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect

(00:04:59) A 200 IQ Team in Every Pocket

(00:07:33) Meta as Personalized TV

(00:11:18) The Frontier Labs as Businesses

(00:14:59) Jevons Paradox and the Limits of Demand

(00:18:47) Automated Labs and the Speed Limits of Experiments

(00:20:39) Why He Stays Away from the AI Build-Out

(00:22:28) Why the Best Entrepreneurs Are Building Supply

(00:24:22) Lessons from Past Capital Cycles

(00:26:05) TSMC and Physical Moats

(00:27:03) AI Agents and the Low-Cost Producer

(00:29:44) Will AI Replace Investors?

(00:32:01) Price as a Signal Wrapped in an Incentive

(00:34:16) America’s Underrated Capital Markets

(00:37:05) Why America Dominates Risk-Taking

(00:38:36) What Higher Rates Are Telling Us

(00:39:24) The AI Speech He Gives His Companies

(00:41:45) The Best Time to Start a Company

(00:43:03) Corporate Margins and Vertical Stacks

(00:45:16) AI and the Income Distribution

(00:48:13) Letting AI Size the Portfolio

(00:50:56) Why He Holds So Much Carvana

(00:52:22) Educating Kids in the Age of AI

My guest today is Christina Cacioppo, founder and CEO of Vanta, which helps more than 16,000 companies manage security and compliance.

Five years after our first conversation, we discuss how Vanta became a category leader, what it takes to reinvent a successful software business in the age of AI, and why Christina is betting on agents to do the work rather than simply assist users.

We also explore the changing economics of software, the war for exceptional talent, AI's impact on cybersecurity, and what it takes to build an enduring company in Silicon Valley's rapidly changing environment.

Please enjoy my conversation with Christina Cacioppo.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

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Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

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⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) How Vanta Won a Crowded Category

(00:03:12) Living Through the Software Selloff

(00:05:41) Building an Agent-First Product

(00:07:39) Why Vanta Eats the Cost of AI

(00:10:35) The Search for Outcome Pricing

(00:14:31) Getting People to Actually Use AI

(00:17:46) Why Comp for Top People Is Up 10X

(00:22:13) Valuations, Tenders, and the Endgame

(00:24:20) What’s Overhyped and Underhyped

(00:27:54) The Problem With FDEs

(00:29:34) Why French Startups Use Chinese Models

(00:30:22) Vanta as a Security Company

(00:36:57) What Makes a Great Talk

(00:40:14) Where She Would Invest Today

(00:45:19) The Billboard War

(00:49:35) The AI Trust Crisis

(00:51:39) Security Five Years From Now

David Vélez is the founder and CEO of Nubank, which serves 140 million customers across Latin America.

David believes the industry is still in its Blockbuster era, with most of the world's banking still running through branches and incumbent banks, and that AI will make digital banks dramatically more efficient than the incumbents they compete with.

He explains how Nubank rebuilt its entire organization around AI after missing the moment the technology started working, and why he is now bringing Nubank to the US, a market he says is still dominated by big incumbent banks.

Please enjoy my conversation with David Vélez.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Banking Is Still In Its Blockbuster Era

(00:02:52) 140 Million Customers, 10,000 Employees

(00:04:53) What Banks Could Do in Five Years

(00:06:31) The $600 Billion Tax on Deposits

(00:08:06) A Private Banker for Everyone

(00:12:21) How a Startup Would Attack Nubank

(00:14:56) When Nubank Took AI Seriously

(00:17:08) Data as a Moat

(00:21:29) How Global Finance Will Change

(00:25:20) Stablecoins and the End of Cash

(00:28:45) Creating Creditworthiness

(00:32:35) Where Fintech Opportunities Remain

(00:34:19) Nubank Comes to the US

(00:41:11) Lessons From Disney and Amazon

(00:43:44) How to Sell AI to Nubank

(00:46:51) Agents as a Customer Segment

(00:48:39) How AI Changed Nubank

(01:01:33) What Motivates Him Now

(01:06:21) Founder Versus CEO

(01:14:01) What Latin America Needs

(01:15:40) The Bear Case for Nubank

(01:19:42) Finding the Right Mission

Andrew Huberman is a neuroscientist and professor at Stanford, the host of the Huberman Lab podcast, and the author of Protocols.

Most of our conversation is about where neuroscience goes next. For decades the field has focused on reading from the brain, and Andrew believes the next era is about writing to it with precise control over specific brain states.

He explains why he thinks the leading AI companies are really building toward this, and why understanding our waking brain states is the problem he most wants to see solved.

Please enjoy my conversation with Andrew Huberman.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Energy as the Bottleneck for Top Performers

(00:06:20) How to Downshift and Fall Asleep

(00:14:06) Neurotech for Sleep and Focus

(00:17:57) The State of Public Health Discourse

(00:22:07) The Biggest Problem in Neuroscience

(00:23:30) Why AI Companies Will Become Biotech Companies

(00:26:18) How We Read Brain Activity

(00:42:07) Crossing the Cyborg Line

(00:43:30) Measuring the Nervous System Directly

(00:57:34) The CRISPR Babies Story

(01:00:24) Embryo Screening and Genetic Engineering

(01:03:01) Understanding Waking Brain States

(01:06:12) Technologists Becoming Neuroscientists

(01:09:35) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Noah Shinn. Noah is the founder of Instinct, a personal assistant that you text, call, or email the same way you would a person. It has its own phone and its own computer, and it can do almost anything on your behalf that you would do yourself online. Instinct is about a year old, still invite-only, and growing roughly 10% day over day without any marketing spend.

We discuss the surprising ways people are already using Instinct, the trusted network that lets two people's agents coordinate directly, and what Noah has learned about how long it takes users to trust an agent with their credit card, inbox, and calendar. He explains why he refuses to build an ad model and why he believes a personal agent should never influence users against their own interests.

We also cover the take rate model behind the more than $1 billion a year now flowing through the platform, how travel and food delivery businesses should prepare for a world of agents, why he spends 40% of his time thinking about compute, and why he believes all of software will eventually collapse into one simple interface.

Please enjoy my conversation with Noah Shinn.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Timestamps:

(00:00:00) The Most Exciting Software Race Ever

(00:00:49) What Instinct Is

(00:04:11) The Wildest Things Users Have Done With Instinct

(00:07:15) The Instinct to Instinct Trusted Network

(00:13:24) How Agents Will Reorder the Internet

(00:14:44) Reinventing Restaurant Reservations

(00:17:23) Travel and $1 Billion in Transaction Volume

(00:21:00) How Users Learn to Trust an Agent

(00:23:25) Keeping Sensitive Data Safe

(00:26:08) Alignment and the Business Model

(00:31:07) Take Rates and the Payments Stack

(00:34:52) When Incumbents Push Back on Agents

(00:40:46) How Businesses Should Prepare for Agents

(00:44:43) Designing for Understandability

(00:48:15) Taste Versus Data

(00:50:03) Invite-Only Growth at 10% a Day

(00:54:46) How Far Ahead to Buy Compute

(00:56:58) The Cost to Serve Each User

(00:59:24) How Much Compute Proactive Agents Will Need

(01:02:30) Thoughts on Muse

(01:03:59) Mistakes and Staying Proactive

(01:05:34) The Future of Security

(01:08:32) Where the Interface Goes Next

(01:12:35) Agents That Pursue Goals

(01:14:35) Personality and the Movie Her

(01:16:27) Why It's Called Instinct

(01:17:34) Allies, Enemies, and Distribution Channels

(01:18:43) Raising Capital

(01:20:34) The Kindest Thing

Gabe Stengel is the co-founder and CEO of Rogo, the AI platform for finance. He believes the best investors will spend the next several years reinventing their firms around AI, and Rogo is trying to build the infrastructure that allows them to do it.

We discuss how Rogo evolved alongside the frontier models, why the last mile and the harness around the models matter so much, what happens when every portfolio manager can deploy thousands of agents against a problem, and how AI could transform the way capital is raised, assets are priced, and deals get done.

We also cover which investing skills become more valuable as AI improves, the move from seat-based to outcome-based pricing, Rogo’s internal company brain called Shrek, the 40 investor rejections Gabe received before his Series A, why building in applied AI requires extraordinary aggression, and what it takes to become a black hole for talent and capital.

Please enjoy my conversation with Gabe Stengel.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:01:24) The Model Eras of Rogo

(00:04:15) Why the Last Mile Mattered

(00:06:14) Who’s Using Rogo Right Now

(00:10:55) Which Investor Skills Still Matter

(00:12:23) Inside Rogo's Data Stack

(00:14:33) Competing With the Frontier Labs

(00:16:57) Why the Harness Matters Most

(00:18:05) What Makes a Vertical AI Winner

(00:22:00) How Firms Buy AI Software

(00:23:43) From Seats to Outcome Pricing

(00:31:19) Auditability Beats Accuracy

(00:32:55) Scaling Enterprise Sales Fast

(00:34:48) Meet Shrek, Rogo's Company Brain

(00:35:49) The Pitch to Great Talent

(00:39:37) What Chewing Glass Feels Like

(00:42:18) Forty Investor Rejections

(00:47:41) Finance's Innovator's Dilemma

(00:50:22) Questions Every Firm Should Ask

(00:53:09) What Remains Most Uncertain

(00:56:46) Becoming a Black Hole for Talent

(00:57:56) The Kindest Thing

Michael Moritz led Sequoia Capital for nearly two decades and backed some of the defining companies of the internet era.

In his new memoir, Ausländer, he turns his attention to his own family, Jewish refugees who fled Nazi Germany and rebuilt their lives in Wales.

We discuss the imprint his parents left on him, the method he used for decades of asking founders about their childhoods and the Time profile that ended his relationship with Steve Jobs.

We also also cover Lee Iacocca, why Don Valentine hired him, Alex Ferguson's approach to managing players, Elon Musk, and why Mike still struggles to feel proud of anything he has done.

Please enjoy my conversation with Michael Moritz.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:16) Where Does One Person End?

(00:11:15) The State of the World Today

(00:15:08) The Unlived Life of Parents

(00:17:33) Lee Iacocca, Eternal Outsider

(00:21:03) His Most Revealing Question

(00:26:03) Resisters, the Silent, and Collabos

(00:33:30) The Profile of Steve Jobs

(00:38:04) Frank Auerbach's Total Obsession

(00:41:04) Why Don Valentine Hired Michael

(00:46:44) Building Sequoia

(00:49:49) What Michael Learned from Alex Ferguson

(00:52:57) The Great Man Theory

(01:00:36) Defining Extraordinary Writing

(01:03:40) Stepping Back From Sequoia

(01:06:54) A Philosophy of Parenting

(01:09:00) The Next Book: Iran

(01:11:44) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Walter Russell Mead. Walter is a columnist at the Wall Street Journal and the author of Special Providence and God and Gold, two of the best books written on American power.

He has spent decades studying how the United States came to dominate the world, and our conversation is about whether it can keep doing so.

Walter lays out the five step playbook that carried the Dutch, then the British, then America to global leadership, and why the same pattern keeps beating centralized continental powers.

We discuss how Trump turned fame into power, the four schools of American foreign policy and the rise of the tech Hamiltonians, what the drone war in Ukraine means for the Pentagon, and why the erosion of deterrence is the deeper story in the Middle East.

Please enjoy my conversation with Walter Russell Mead.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:02:16) America and the World Today

(00:05:34) Trump’s Method of Power

(00:09:43) Why America Keeps Winning

(00:12:25) The Five-Point Plan for Global Dominance

(00:20:11) China and American Power

(00:22:10) The Risk of American Isolationism

(00:25:50) Technology and Global Power

(00:28:42) Riding the Technological Wild Horse

(00:34:29) Four Schools of American Foreign Policy

(00:40:22) The Rise of Tech Hamiltonians

(00:43:51) India and the Next Great Powers

(00:48:54) The Risks of the Information Revolution

(00:51:30) How Technology Is Changing War

(00:55:06) Taiwan

(00:57:20) The Future of American Society

(01:00:44) What It Means to Be American

(01:03:25) Iran and the Middle East

(01:06:28) The Erosion of Deterrence

(01:08:53) America’s Role in the Next 20 Years

(01:12:08) AI and Global Power

(01:14:26) Reasons for Optimism

(01:16:33) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Sarah Guo, founder and managing partner of Conviction, the venture firm she built to back AI-native companies from their earliest days.

Sarah has become one of the most sought-after early-stage investors in AI, often the first check into the companies defining the frontier.

In this conversation, we go inside that frontier: what the small group of people actually building AI believe right now, why some of the field's best researchers are wrestling with their own sense of purpose, and how close we are to robots in the home and a genuine acceleration in scientific discovery.

At the center is Sarah's conviction that no single company will own the future of AI, and what that means for founders, investors, and anyone allocating their time and resources in a world moving this fast.

Our managing editor Dom Cooke wrote a profile of Sarah for Colossus, "Sarah's Wager," on how she built the firm closest to the AI frontier and why she's now betting against its biggest companies.

Please enjoy this conversation with Sarah Guo.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:02:16) Investing Without a Backtest

(00:03:31) The AI Wager

(00:06:16) Building the Best Investment Firm

(00:08:37) Finding Non-Obvious AI Opportunities

(00:11:00) The Frontier AI Talent Race

(00:13:50) Compute as the Constraint

(00:19:10) The Future of Robotics

(00:22:15) Making Investment Decisions

(00:26:13) How Sarah Spends Her Time

(00:28:15) Raising a Venture Fund

(00:30:49) Lessons From Her Parents

(00:34:38) The Case for Open Source AI

(00:39:01) Abundant Intelligence Isn't Inevitable

(00:40:55) Compute Independence

(00:43:14) Debates Inside Conviction

(00:45:27) AI's Opportunity in Biology

(00:48:58) Why Conviction

(00:50:31) Finding Truth and Taking Risk

(00:54:16) What Changes in the Next Year

(00:56:46) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Neil Movva, founder of Sail. Sail is building what Neil calls a token factory, an inference company designed for a specific kind of future, one where AI agents run in the background for hours or days at a time rather than answering a human in real time.

In that world, latency matters less and cost matters more, and Neil has built the whole company around driving the cost of a token as low as it can possibly go.

What makes this conversation special is that it is one of the most detailed tours I have ever done through the full stack of intelligence, the software, the chips, and the power, and how all three connect.

Along the way we cover the trade-off between speed and cost that lives inside every GPU, his scavenger strategy for buying the chips and power nobody else wants, his contrarian view on Nvidia, and why the premium the frontier labs charge for being three to six months ahead may not last.

Please enjoy my conversation with Neil Movva.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:20) Neil Movva

(00:03:22) Building a Token Factory

(00:05:32) The Rise of Long-Running Agents

(00:08:47) Deep Research and Cybersecurity

(00:15:12) The Full Stack of Intelligence

(00:20:03) Throughput Versus Latency

(00:24:58) The Future of AI Chips

(00:33:19) Why Transformers Work

(00:36:43) The Future of Data

(00:44:05) The Market for AI Chips

(00:47:56) Is the AI Boom Different?

(00:51:08) Reinventing the Data Center

(00:56:43) Scavenging Power

(01:01:04) Where Compute Is Most Inefficient

(01:07:02) Open Versus Closed Models

(01:10:37) A Trillion Tokens a Day

(01:12:42) The Contrarian Case on NVIDIA

(01:14:38) Advice for AI Hardware Founders

My guest today is Ben Thompson, the founder and author of Stratechery. Ben is one of my favorite business thinkers and I love talking to him about everything happening in markets and technology.

We go through every important company, including OpenAI, Nvidia, Intel, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. We also discuss why he thinks it would be dangerous for the United States to win the AI race outright, what container shipping and the railroads of the 1870s tell us about the buildout, and why the binding constraint on all of this may be capital rather than compute.

Please enjoy my conversation with Ben Thompson.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:16) Winning the AI Race With China

(00:08:28) Timing, Capital, and the Railroads

(00:11:34) Berkshire, Google, and Absolute Profits

(00:14:23) Verifiable and Unverifiable Domains

(00:20:20) Aggregation Theory in the AI Era

(00:22:06) The Real Cost of Inference

(00:25:40) Why Consumer AI Needs Advertising

(00:30:08) Compute Shortages and Commodity Markets

(00:35:46) Memory Cycles and Boom Bust Dynamics

(00:42:08) TSMC, Intel, and Where Risk Goes

(00:44:51) The Best Setups in Big Tech

(00:52:14) The Frontier Model Contenders

(00:54:27) Microsoft's IBM Playbook

(01:00:45) Meta, Attention, and Advertising

(01:07:29) NVIDIA, Commodities, and Power

My guest today is Eric Vishria, a General Partner at Benchmark.

Eric has spent his career in software and cloud, and few people know the history of these markets as well as he does. What makes him special is his ability to use that history to make sense of today.

We discuss what the rise of AWS teaches us about AI, what he has learned from investing in Fireworks, Sierra, and Cerebras, and how the criteria for winning have changed for founders and investors.

Please enjoy my conversation with Eric Vishria.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:20) Learning the World Through Fireworks

(00:05:42) AWS Was Going to Eat Everything

(00:07:40) The Zero-Sum Thinking Trap

(00:09:01) Comparing Cloud and AI Adoption

(00:11:03) Becoming Enterprise's AI Sherpa

(00:13:05) Building Sandcastles

(00:14:55) The Return to Being Technical

(00:17:13) The Shifting Competitive Frontier

(00:22:10) Why the Old Playbook Fails

(00:27:53) Energy as the Binding Constraint

(00:29:38) The Cerebras Story

(00:37:57) The Virtue of Productive Naivete

(00:39:19) What Robotics Still Needs

(00:45:58) What Makes a Great Board Partner

(00:51:13) Raising A Growth Fund

(00:55:39) What the Big Winners Taught Him

(00:57:37) Hard Work Versus the Hole-in-One

(00:58:38) The Best Reasons to Go Public

(01:01:09) Debates Inside Benchmark

(01:02:16) What If It All Works

(01:03:35) What Geoff Hinton Got Wrong

My guest today is Gavin Baker, founding partner and CIO of Atreides Management. This is our seventh conversation, and just two months after Gavin's last appearance.

It's about the gap between what the market is doing and what companies are seeing. It's been a tough month or so for public AI names, but there's no sign of a slowdown on the ground in Silicon Valley.

We discuss the latest moves, contracted vs. spot GPU prices, the game theory of memory supply agreements, and why Claude has become the Walter Cronkite of the stock market. We close on SpaceX, orbital compute, and what Gavin sees as the single biggest risk to all of it.

Please enjoy this conversation, from the famous table at Benchmark, with my friend Gavin Baker.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at colossus.com/subscribe.

-----

Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to https://ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to https://Vanta.com/invest.

-----

WorkOS is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit https://ridgeline.ai/.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:35) First Question: July Was 2022 in a Month

(00:04:08) The Private Companies Public Markets Can't See

(00:05:06) Old GPUs Repricing Higher

(00:06:53) Walking Through the Month

(00:08:22) Kimi, GLM 5.2 & the Open Source Freak-Out

(00:10:51) Real Yields, Spreads & CDS

(00:11:54) Does the Build-Out Need Credit?

(00:15:22) A Sell-Off With No Clear Villain

(00:17:35) Open Source as Dark Matter

(00:18:39) Nvidia's Lowest Forward PE in 10 Years

(00:21:35) Claude as Walter Cronkite for the Stock Market

(00:23:55) Continual Learning & Sample Efficiency

(00:25:19) What Would Actually Scare Him

(00:26:38) Routers & the Multi-Model Future

(00:30:51) Tokens as a Percent of Comp Spend

(00:33:37) The Game Theory of Breaking an LTA

(00:36:41) Nvidia's Credit Wrapper & Revenue Share

(00:37:45) What He'd Do If He Ran Hynix

(00:41:46) Who's More Bullish than Him

(00:43:28) China's DUV Machine

(00:46:10) Bull Case for Software

(00:48:16) The RSI Maximalist View

(00:49:31) Inference Clouds Growing Without Burning Cash

(00:50:35) The Biggest Risk Is Regulation

(00:53:44) Telling the Story Better

(00:57:15) Dark Horses

(00:58:02) SpaceX in the Public Markets

My guest today is Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI.

It's a conversation spanning the history, present, and future of OpenAI, from the origin of ChatGPT through Codex, hardware, and their new Jalapeno chip.

We discuss the early decision to buy compute at a scale nobody thought was rational, and the plan to build a gigawatt of new capacity every week.

We talk about Kimi and distillation, the Hugging Face incident and what it means for the pace of AI development, and what it's like to raise kids who will grow up never knowing a world without abundant intelligence.

Please enjoy my conversation with Sam Altman.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:02) Intro: Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI

(00:02:35) Refocusing

(00:05:43) OpenAI’s Compute Bets

(00:09:07) Data Centers

(00:11:14) Jalapeno Chip

(00:11:52) Kimi, Distillation & Open Source

(00:14:39) The Hugging Face Incident

(00:17:46) OpenAI's Mission & Vision

(00:22:14) All the Returns Are at the Frontier

(00:22:27) Bottlenecks: Compute, Research, Data

(00:23:49) Sam's View on AI & Jobs

(00:26:56) Unpopular Bets That Turned Out Right

(00:27:45) Model Cycles

(00:29:45) How Sam Uses AI

(00:32:44) Having Kids

(00:34:56) Why Sam Has No Equity in OpenAI

(00:35:33) Robotics

(00:36:48) The Origin Story of ChatGPT

(00:39:22) How to Get AI into More Hands

(00:42:20) How Sam Recruited Great AI Researchers

(00:43:57) What Sam Learned From Being an Investor

(00:45:22) What the Next 6–36 Months Look Like

(00:46:31) Codex

(00:49:36) Could We Be Oversupplied in Compute in Two Years?

(00:50:09) Sam's View on Scaling Laws

(00:50:20) Alec Radford

(00:51:12) Formative Moments

(00:53:50) Kindest Thing

My guest today is Matthew Smith. Matthew is the founder and CIO of Chronometer Partners, which invests in energy, industrials, materials, power and utilities, and related infrastructure.

For the last 18 months he and his team have modeled nearly every natural gas well, pipeline, and processing asset in the United States. He's reached a conclusion most of the market doesn't share.

Starting in 2028, AI data centers and LNG exports will need more gas than the country can produce and deliver. By his math, the US could exhaust its working natural gas storage by 2030. In his words, the upside risk to prices becomes unbounded and convex.

We talk about why this was set in motion long before AI arrived, why the US can't just turn off exports, who wins and loses among producers, nuclear, solar, and the hyperscalers, and what he sees as the only long-term solution.

Please enjoy my conversation with Matthew Smith.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

In June, Matthew wrote a letter to a small group of confidants laying out the full case behind his natural gas forecast. He has allowed us to publish it. You can read the full letter here.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:02:02) Episode Intro: Matt Smith

(00:03:33) The Conclusion After 18 Months

(00:04:56) The Die Was Cast Before AI

(00:07:24) Sizing AI's Gas Demand

(00:09:33) Why Not Just Stop Exporting?

(00:11:38) Is the Gas Even There?

(00:13:53) The Timing Problem, Not Supply

(00:15:15) Flow Versus Stock

(00:19:10) What Slows Gas to Market

(00:22:21) If Nothing Changes by 2030

(00:26:11) Could Prices Hit Twenty Dollars?

(00:27:00) Gas Producers Poised to Win

(00:28:54) Utility-Scale Solar's Windfall

(00:30:08) What About Nuclear?

(00:32:40) SMRs

(00:34:29) The US Consumer Pays

(00:36:37) Turbine Makers Building Too Late

(00:37:57) Are Hyperscalers Exposed Too?

(00:44:25) Kickstarting the Nuclear Build

(00:46:20) Put Solar on Every Roof

(00:46:52) Implications for the World

(00:49:26) No One's Securing Supply

(00:52:57) The Challenge for Energy CEOs

Today my guest is John Kim. John is one of the world's top and most prolific fundraisers.

He was chief client officer at General Catalyst, where he helped raise many of the firm's flagship funds. He is now chairman and president of corporate development at Lila Sciences, a company building scientific superintelligence, where he has helped raise several hundred million dollars.

He is also the author of The Tao of Fundraising.

This conversation is really a guide on how to raise money from someone who has done it at the highest level. We talk about why persuasion equals desire minus fear, the difference between belief and trust, the laws of fundraising, and how to build the consensus that moves big pools of capital.

Please enjoy my conversation with John Kim.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

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⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

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Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

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WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

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Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

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⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:02) Introduction of John Kim

(00:02:39) Money Moves at the Speed of Trust

(00:05:06) How to Start a Fundraising Campaign

(00:08:03) Persuasion Equals Desire Minus Fear

(00:12:20) How to Raise a Few Billion Dollars

(00:15:58) The Benchmark Story

(00:18:36) The Law of Differentiation

(00:24:13) Law of Tradeoffs and Law of Pipeline

(00:27:52) The Karpman Drama Triangle

(00:30:42) Oprah Winfrey

(00:33:49) Most Common Fundraising Mistakes

(00:38:35) Secretary of State

(00:45:40) The Inner Game

(00:47:38) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Jeremy Giffon. Jeremy has been on the show before as one of our most popular guests, and this conversation is every bit as enjoyable as the first.

Over the last 18 months, Jeremy has had hundreds of conversations with founders and with the capital behind their companies. I don't know many investors with such a high rep count in the most interesting corners of private markets, so I asked him what he has learned.

We talk about what those lessons mean for founders and investors, why everyone has become subservient to the poster class, the hidden intellectual history behind Silicon Valley and much more.

Please enjoy my conversation with my friend, Jeremy Giffon.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:02) Jeremy Giffon

(00:02:34) Lessons from 18 Months of Founder Conversations

(00:07:01) The Billion-Dollar PDF

(00:08:13) The Unifeed & Rise of the Timeline

(00:17:02) Power Law & Breakout Content

(00:18:48) AI Algorithms Driving Content

(00:20:38) Timeline-Native White House

(00:21:09) Traits of Great Posters

(00:25:27) Peak Guy & the Billionaire Priest Class

(00:32:13) Billionaires Now Defer to Posters

(00:34:52) Freedom vs. Relevance

(00:38:53) AI & White-Collar Job Displacement

(00:40:53) Stewarding Your Gifts as Moral Duty

(00:43:18) Next Wave of Finance: Equity-First Firms

(00:53:26) East Coast vs. West Coast Finance

(00:55:34) Beating the Market Is Not That Hard

(01:00:40) SPV Feudalism & Allocation

(01:02:10) Egregious SPV Fee Structures

(01:04:50) Simplicity vs. Complexity in Investing

(01:07:15) Hiring: Attracting Differentiated Talent

(01:11:00) Silicon Valley's Hidden Intellectual Traditions

My guests today are Gavin Uberti and Rob Wachen, the founders of Etched.

A few years ago, when they set out to build a better AI chip than the largest companies in the world, almost everyone I called told me it could not be done. They have since done it, taping out a working chip on their first attempt and becoming the first hardware company founded after ChatGPT to do so.

They already have more than a billion dollars of customer demand for their first product, and have raised eight hundred million dollars to build it.

Etched builds chips and systems designed to run AI models faster and at lower cost. They started the company in 2023, and that product is a complete rack for inference, the chip along with the boards, the power delivery, the interconnects, and the manufacturing to produce it all.

We talk about the technical bets behind their architecture, how they hired industry legends and paired them with elite 22 year-olds, and why they believe inference will become one of the largest markets in the world.

I think you will find the story of what they have built hard to forget.

Please enjoy my conversation with Gavin and Rob.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit http://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:07) Gavin Uberti and Rob Wachen

(00:03:54) Two 21-Year-Olds Taking on NVIDIA

(00:07:52) The Two Technical Bets Behind Their Architecture

(00:14:15) Why Inference Becomes the Biggest Market

(00:20:23) Rob and Gavin's Origins Stories

(00:28:38) How They Recruit Industry Legends

(00:36:30) Moving a Dozen Engineers to Bangalore for Six Months

(00:38:01) Speed Wins

(00:43:58) Getting More Concurrency Out of Every Megawatt

(00:52:44) Vertical Integration

(00:57:43) Hardest Obstacles to Overcome

(01:01:09) Raising The Largest AI Chip Series A Ever

(01:06:29) TSMC

(01:13:20) Designing Gen 2 for Gigawatt-Scale Production

(01:16:42) Why Machines Don't Think Like People

(01:20:03) A Year of Compute Compressed Into a Month

(01:23:44) The Trillion-Dollar Data Center

(01:26:19) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Vlad Barbalat, the Chief Investment Officer of Liberty Mutual Investments, the $120 billion investment platform that sits within one of the largest insurance companies in the world.

Vlad grew up in Soviet Moldova, came to America in 1990, and built a career that eventually led him to one of the most distinctive capital allocator seats anywhere in finance.

Today we talk about how the mutual insurance structure creates a unique investment platform, what Liberty looks for in a new deal or partner, and what it means to build a career and a life in a country that gave you opportunities you never would have had anywhere else.

Please enjoy my conversation with Vlad Barbalat.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit https://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:00:53) Vlad Barbalat

(00:01:28) The Most Interesting Seat in the Market

(00:05:53) Breaking Down the $120B

(00:10:41) How the Portfolio Is Constructed

(00:11:00) The House View

(00:13:49) What Liberty Looks for in a GP

(00:16:32) Why Not Just Buy Bonds

(00:18:30) Benefits of the Mutual Structure

(00:23:40) The Luxury of the American Citizen Through Immigrant Eyes

(00:30:26) How Immigration Shaped His Worldview

(00:32:45) Direct Deals vs. GP Allocations

(00:35:23) Branded Capital

(00:39:07) Geopolitics & Investing

(00:43:48) AI's Impact on Investing

(00:46:22) The Valuation Debate

(00:50:47) Public vs. Private Markets

(00:53:53) Lessons from Goldman

(00:54:41) Why Excellence Matters

(00:57:30) Managing Permanent Capital

(01:03:54) The Kindest Thing

My guest today is Kareem Amin, co-founder and CEO of Clay. Clay has become one of the fastest-growing software companies of the last few years, valued at over four billion dollars. It helps companies find their best customers and reach them at scale.

But this conversation is about a lot more than Clay. Kareem is one of the most original thinkers I know.

We talk about the statues he keeps at the center of how he runs Clay — truth, justice, and courage — and what those words demand of him in practice. We talk about risk, ambition, and what he learned about both on a ten-day silent meditation retreat.

I've had a lot of conversations with Kareem over the years. This is one I'll remember. Please enjoy this unique conversation with Kareem Amin.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

-----

Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠.

-----

⁠Ramp’s⁠ mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

-----

Trusted by thousands of businesses,⁠Vanta⁠ continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠.

-----

WorkOS⁠ is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.

-----

Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit http://rogo.ai/invest.

-----

⁠Ridgeline⁠ has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best

(00:02:29) Kareem Amin

(00:03:07) Clay's Origin

(00:10:50) Truth, Courage and Justice

(00:16:09) Adulation

(00:18:28) Risk, Courage & Self-Respect

(00:21:14) Jony Ive & Steve Jobs

(00:21:42) Role of Introspection

(00:23:08) Lack to Wholeness

(00:27:27) The Day Five Insight

(00:29:57) Running a Startup Unusually

(00:34:41) Learning from Magicians

(00:36:27) Music's Role in Your Life

(00:39:38) Making People Feel Something New

(00:41:20) Vision in Company Building

(00:44:29) Wealth & What It's Taught You

(00:47:40) All Problems Are Communication Problems

(00:52:14) Death Doula & Scaling

(00:55:06) The Kindest Thing