Joe Lonsdale: American Optimist

Rayan Krishnan is the co-founder and CEO of Vals AI, a leader in the independent evaluation of frontier AI models. What is the science behind model evaluation? What role should independent evaluators play as we debate AI oversight? How soon will models reach recursive self-improvement — and what happens next?

We’re joined by Rayan and 8VC Partner Vivek Gopalan for this timely conversation about AI progress and the frameworks for evaluating performance and risk. After interning at Microsoft in high school, Rayan studied computer science at Stanford. He went on to join Palantir, where he developed a feature the company later patented and productized, before launching Vals AI in 2023.

We begin with Rayan’s path to Palantir, key lessons from Alex Karp, and the origins of Vals. Next, we dive into how his team used Anthropic’s Fable to crack a 370-year-old cipher and whether AI is really making new discoveries and breakthroughs. Next, Rayan explains what model evaluation is, how to design new hills for models to climb, and why labs shouldn’t grade their own homework. Then, we cover recursive self-improvement and what happens once models begin creating their own successors. Rayan believes Anthropic will reach RSI by mid-2027 and talks about what might happen next. Finally, he addresses how models try to deceive evaluators, and why, despite serious challenges, he remains an optimist when it comes to AI.

(0:00) Episode intro

(2:00) Palantir, Machiavelli & lessons from Alex Karp

(7:50) Solving a 370-year-old cipher / Is AI making new discoveries?

(12:10) How do you measure AI abilities across finance, legal, etc?

(15:30) What is the science behind model evaluation?

(18:00) The importance of independent evaluation

(23:35) Evaluating Chinese models & addressing distillation

(26:45) Who will reach Recursive Self-Improvement first? Should we be worried?

(28:30) How models try to deceive evaluators

(33:00) Why Rayan remains optimistic about AI

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Eric Glyman is the co-founder and CEO of Ramp, the finance platform doing over two billion in annual revenue and growing over 100 percent year per year. How did a company built on the promise of helping customers spend less become one of the fastest-growing AI businesses? What’s Eric’s unique approach to managing small teams of exceptional talent? And what does Ramp’s view into corporate spend reveal about AI adoption and where the economy is headed?

Before Ramp, Eric and co-founder Karim Atiyeh built Paribus, a “prehistoric AI agent” that scanned inboxes and secured price-drop refunds on customers’ behalf. Capital One acquired it a year after launch, and the two spent their time inside the bank studying how misaligned incentives shape what financial institutions actually do. In 2020, they launched Ramp and quickly became the fastest-growing corporate card and expense management platform.

We begin our conversation with the origins of Ramp, specifically how learnings from Paribus and operating inside a big bank revealed new possibilities. Eric explains why Ramp is a “productivity company that happens to move money” and how its obsession with outcomes, rather than selling products, drives its meteoric growth. Next, Eric explains the small-team philosophy behind Ramp’s speed, and why he takes the unusual step of breaking up teams after they reach a certain size. Then, we get a look inside the U.S. economy via Ramp’s unique insights into corporate expenses. For example, Eric explains that AI inference spend has grown five-fold in the past few years but still only amounts to two percent of all white-collar wages. After seeing the surge in inference costs, Ramp launched Router, which dramatically reduces customer inference costs — an example of prioritizing outcomes and operating at a speed that competitors can’t match. Finally, we talk about the impact of AI on white-collar work, and what it would look like to apply Ramp’s transparency and cost savings to the federal government.

(00:00) Episode intro

(01:45) $2B in annual revenue; origins of Ramp

(05:20) "A productivity company that happens to move money"

(09:30) Could Ramp have been built before AI?

(11:15) Selling outcomes vs selling products

(15:10) Why Ramp beat Brex

(17:00) 3% of corporate cards, 97% to go

(20:00) AI spend is 2% of all white-collar wages

(22:45) How Router saves businesses 40% on AI spend

(24:00) Eric's small team philosophy and how to kill bureaucracy

(33:00) How Ramp maps the US economy

(39:10) Can Ramp modernize government spend? Audit the Pentagon?

(44:30) Future of work / optimism for the future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Scott Kupor is the Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and has achieved some of the most important reforms in DC in only a couple years. How has he reduced the size of the federal government for the first time in generations? How is he bringing merit back to the civil service? And what is he doing to incentivize and make it easier for our best minds to serve in government?

Before joining the Trump administration, Scott was employee number one at Andreessen Horowitz. As Managing Partner, he helped build it into one of the world’s largest venture firms. He’s also the author of the bestselling “Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It.” In 2024, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, where he’s responsible for more than two million civil service employees and the policies governing their hiring, firing, and retention.

Recorded before a live audience at the University of Austin, we begin with Scott’s unlikely path to DC and the incentive problem at the root of government dysfunction. Learn how a consent decree over four decades ago killed entrance exams for federal jobs, and how Scott got it overturned — merit is coming back! He also explains how he executed the largest peacetime reduction in the federal workforce since 1930, while eliminating degree and experience requirements so we can get our top talent into government regardless of their background. Finally, Scott dives into the launch of the U.S. Tech Force and his effort to recruit an elite corps of software engineers to make government competent and functional again. He ends with his pitch to young Americans: if you want to take on some of the most complex problems that impact millions of your fellow citizens, there’s no better place than the U.S. government.

(00:00) Episode intro

(01:40) Why leave tech to be attacked in DC?

(06:27) Biggest federal workforce reduction in modern history

(08:45) How the left killed merit-based hiring

(14:40) How Scott is bringing merit back to DC

(15:50) Lessons from DOGE

(18:20) Hidden costs of outdated systems; billions wasted

(23:40) Building a U.S. Tech Force and hiring for skills

(26:20) Eliminating degree requirement to get the best talent

(27:16) Why should a young talented person serve in government?

(30:28) Optimism for DC; rejecting the blackpill

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Anthropic is one of the fastest-growing companies in history and sits at the forefront of the AI race. This week, we’re joined by two key leaders on Anthropic’s technical team — Sholto Douglas and Nicholas Marwell — for an inside look at the AI frontier. Are we on the cusp of AGI — and what does that mean? What are they most excited about and most concerned about? And where does Anthropic stand on open source, as well as criticisms of its regulatory approach?

Sholto Douglas grew up in Sydney, Australia, where he studied robotics and taught himself Machine Learning research; he went on to work at DeepMind before becoming a tech lead in Reinforcement Learning (RL) at Anthropic. Nicholas Marwell, a San Francisco native, studied at Yale and joined Anthropic early in its journey to lead RL Science and now the Horizons team. We begin with the state of AI progress, and why Sholto and Nicholas believe AGI is likely within the next couple of years. We unpack their case for AI optimism, why biology is the most exciting next frontier, and whether a post-scarcity world is truly achievable. Then, they explain why the next decade “belongs to the generalists” and offer advice for young people entering the workforce in the coming years. Then we dig into the hard questions: offense vs. defense in cyber and bio, regulatory capture, open source, distillation, and competition with China. We also discuss the importance of virtue, faith, and institutions, and whether the leading AI researchers in Silicon Valley share the values of the heartland. Finally, they offer a few predictions for the years ahead and whether AI will soon win a Fields Medal or even a Nobel Prize.

NOTE: This conversation was recorded about a month ago, and delayed beyond our control, but it’s still timely.

00:00 Episode intro

02:00 Self-taught ML; Unlikely paths to Anthropic

04:13 What are the most exciting things you’re working on?

07:48 Have we reached AGI — and what comes next?

10:10 How to measure AI progress

14:05 Is biology the next great frontier?

16:30 Career advice & the decade of the generalists

19:10 What could go wrong? What are the biggest AI risks?

22:50 Offense vs defense; how technology evolves

24:50 Answering the regulatory capture critique

30:15 Anthropic’s stance on open source

31:30 Would you slow down and let China go ahead?

32:50 Anthropic’s view on distillation

39:50 Is a post-scarcity world achievable?

48:30 How do we preserve values, tradition & community?

54:45 Predictions for 2028

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

John Jovanovic is the President and Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States. After years of mismanagement, Ex-Im is now profitable and has become a key driver of American reindustrialization. How did he turn the bank around? What's behind a new $12 billion critical mineral reserve to secure supply chains? And how is he seeing AI impact factory floors across America?The grandson of a Chicago steelworker, Jovanovic spent his career in energy, commodities, and supply chains — most recently as Chief Strategy Officer at Asplundh, the largest provider of critical infrastructure services across North America. He went on to serve in the first Trump administration at the Development Finance Corporation, where he opened the DFC's first overseas office to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the Balkans. In the fall of 2025, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate to lead the Export-Import Bank.We begin with Jovanovic's turnaround of Ex-Im: he lays out his key reforms and explains why he spent his first hundred days in the building instead of traveling the country. Next, we dive into Project Vault, the $12 billion public-private critical mineral reserve he announced alongside President Trump to shore up American supply chains. Then, we explore his thesis behind the "revenge of the physical world," why AI is a shot in the arm for reindustrialization, and what Jovanovic is seeing on factory floors across the country. Finally, we discuss the backlash against data centers and lay out the case for AI optimism and how to ensure all Americans benefit from this massive opportunity.

(00:00) Episode intro

(02:00) If you can’t manufacture, you can't innovate

(09:00) Grandson of a steelworker; John’s background

(11:18) Countering Chinese & Russian influence in the Balkans

(15:55) Senate confirmation & how to build bipartisan support

(21:45) How John made Ex-Im profitable again

(28:10) Securing supply chains: $12B critical mineral reserve

(35:40) Superhuman strength: AI & reindustrialization

(38:08) Addressing data center backlash & AI safety

(41:57) Optimism for DC & America’s future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Brian Chau is an investigative journalist using AI to uncover widespread corruption and billions in fraud. He recently revealed how the Effective Altruism movement bought and planted AI doomer articles, and he exposed the firm behind the frontier lab hack that's fueling AI hysteria. Now he's breaking his newest story: a $21 billion racial wealth transfer in healthcare payments across 35 states. How is he using AI to uncover stories that no other journalist could find? Why does he believe that AI is ultimately on the side of liberty and transparency? And can AI-powered accountability rebuild trust in media?

We discuss these timely issues and more with Brian, founder of Effort News. At 15 years old, Brian was the youngest person in North America to win an IOI gold medal in competitive programming. He went on to study at Waterloo University before leading Alliance for the Future, an AI policy organization in DC. There he encountered the broken state of media firsthand and decided to build Effort News.

We begin with Brian’s path from competitive programming to the “dirty news business,” and how he saw a generational opportunity to save journalism by applying AI to uncover massive fraud and corruption. Next, we break his latest news: an investigation into Health Equity Incentives — a $21 billion discriminatory transfer of Medicaid and Medicare dollars away from White and Asian people to Black and Hispanic. Then, we discuss his recent investigation into the UK counterterrorism program that flagged the writings of Douglas Murray and George Orwell as terrorist threats, and how Effective Altruism NGOs are funding AI doomer articles. Despite the splintered, tribal nature of journalism today, Brian believes that provable, AI-verified reporting will become the standard and rebuild confidence in our key institutions.

00:00 Episode intro

01:40 Youngest American to win IOI gold

04:30 AI journalism; uncovering what legacy media can't

09:30 Is Effort News nonpartisan? Answering the critiques

11:25 Breaking news: $21 Billion Racial Wealth Transfer

17:30 Exposing the UK's counterterror incompetence

22:00 How Effective Altruism & AI doomers bought the media

24:00 Anthropic "whistleblower" connection to left-wing NGOs

28:50 How do you account for bias in your reporting?

34:30 How to build a media business in 2026

42:30 AI for liberty and accountability; optimistic vision for the future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Until recently, robots were constrained to narrow, specific tasks. Think assembly lines, medical devices, or household vacuum cleaners. But now all that is changing. One robot trained by Generalist's foundation model can do everything from folding clothes and washing dishes to sorting objects and repairing other robots. How are Pete Florence and the Generalist team bringing AI to the physical world? Why is intelligence, not hardware, the key unlock for robotics? And how could general-purpose robots unlock 10 times more scientific progress in the years ahead?Pete grew up in the Bay Area, earned his PhD at MIT, and became a star scientist at Google DeepMind. In 2023, he left to co-found Generalist, which builds robotics foundation models to help bring general intelligence to the physical world. Its latest model, GEN-1.5, can now train robots in a matter of seconds on simple tasks such as folding laundry and sorting objects. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Vivek Gopalan. We begin with Pete's entrepreneurial journey and his epiphany in grad school — walk into any robotics lab and the robots were standing still most hours of the day. Pete unpacks why robots, like humans, learn through data and experience, and why intelligence, not hardware, is the next frontier for robotics. At DeepMind he specialized in bringing multimodal learning (language models + vision models) into robotics, and he's now bringing that to the next level with robotic world models at Generalist. We dive into robotics' GPT-3 moment, the emergent capabilities Generalist is seeing — including self-taught ambidexterity — and the data moats that will shape the industry. Finally, we explore what a world of abundant robots means for science, reindustrialization, and American prosperity.

00:00 Episode intro

01:30 Bay Area to MIT and DeepMind

03:55 Pete's epiphany: robots sitting still

08:30 Why intelligence, not hardware, is the next frontier

13:20 The GPT-3 era of robotics

14:55 Why leave DeepMind?

16:50 How to train robot brains

18:30 Emergent ambidexterity

20:40 LLMs vs robot world models

23:50 GEN-0, GEN-1 & scaling laws in robotics

27:28 10x more science per year

32:50 Skilled trades, reindustrialization & future of robots

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Aaron Levie has spent two decades building Box into a cloud storage leader — and he's never been more excited for the future. What's next in the AI wave? Where is he already seeing evidence for new job creation? What do the doomers and accelerationists both get wrong? And why is Silicon Valley's biggest AI challenge self-inflicted?

We discuss these topics and more in this week's episode with Aaron. Originally a college project to access his files from anywhere, Aaron dropped out of USC in 2005 to build Box. He raised his first funding from Mark Cuban and pivoted to the enterprise. Today, Box is a multi-billion dollar company serving 120,000 global customers, and Aaron has become one of tech's leading voices on AI in the enterprise.

We begin our conversation with the state of model progress and the unprecedented speed of the AI era — companies going from zero to $500M in revenue in a year or two. We also discuss the Kimi K3 debate and China closing the gap on the U.S. in the AI race. Next, Aaron explains why diffusion, not intelligence, is the real rate limiter for AI adoption, and what the challenges will be at the enterprise level. Then we dive into the jobs debate: Aaron explains the 13 new types of jobs AI has created at Box, why law firms now need teams of engineers for their own custom AI models, and why mass job destruction means betting against markets themselves. Finally, we tackle Silicon Valley's self-inflicted AI crisis and why it may become the number one issue of the next presidential election.

(00:00) Episode intro

(01:15) AI wave / every two months is a year now

(06:30) China, Kimi K3 & open-source debate

(10:45) Diffusion is the real rate limiter

(15:50) Agent-first startups vs incumbents

(19:00) Nobody reads those contracts — AI’s new work

(23:35) Silicon Valley’s AI Problem / Larry David making AI models

(29:20) 13 new types of AI jobs at Box

(32:20) The origins of Box / dropping out of college

(37:00) Favorite angel investments right now

(40:20) Optimism for America’s future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Aaron Cannon is applying AI to solve one of the oldest and most important challenges in business: understanding exactly what customers want and need. Traditional consumer surveys often provide low-quality data, while one-on-one interviews are cost-prohibitive and not scalable. But AI unlocks profound new possibilities. How is Aaron using AI to conduct deep, insightful interactions at scale? What happens when organizations have always-on customer understanding? And what are the new opportunities for incorporating real-time feedback into product improvements?

Aaron Cannon is the co-founder and CEO of Outset, one of the fastest-growing, agent-led customer research platforms. Try it yourself here and help us improve American Optimist; we'll incorporate the top recommendations!

Prior, Aaron was the head of product at Untapped and Triplebyte and worked in senior product roles at Tesla, Pebble, and Monitor Deloitte. He launched Outset in 2022 after seeing an opportunity with large language models to fundamentally change how organizations learn from the people they serve. For this conversation, we're also joined by 8VC Partner Jack Moshkovich, who helped lead our investment in Outset.

We begin with Aaron’s path to founding Outset and the inefficiencies he saw in traditional customer research. Next, we explore how Outset’s AI-moderated interviews work in practice — from consumer studies to enterprise deployments at Microsoft, Google, and Uber. Learn how AI-led interviews can actually elicit more honest and in-depth responses than human-led conversations. Then, we dive into the explosive growth of the company — 8X revenue over the past year — and its “forward-deployed researchers" model. Finally, Aaron shares his vision for "self-driving research": AI that doesn’t just gather feedback but helps close the loop by identifying problems and even suggesting fixes — ultimately leading to improved products, experiences, and organizations.

00:00 Episode intro

01:10 Aaron’s entrepreneurial journey

06:00 How does AI-moderated research work?

09:25 Why people will talk to AI more than humans

13:40 How Outset landed Microsoft, Google & Uber

14:55 Are you replacing human jobs?

20:56 New possibilities for real-time product improvements

23:30 The pros and cons of synthetic research

28:00 Insane growth / how Outset 8X’d revenue

35:00 How AI is upending a $140B industry

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Nima Ghamsari was a top talent at Palantir before founding Blend Labs to digitize the mortgage process. Blend became one of Silicon Valley’s hottest SaaS companies until the mortgage industry came to a screeching halt in recent years. Now, the AI wave has Blend poised for a comeback. What will the future of home buying look like? Why is Nima all-in on AI agents? And how can AI supercharge established tech companies with the will and talent to rethink things from scratch?

In this episode, we’re joined by the Founder and Head of Blend, Nima Ghamsari. We begin with his parents immigrating from Iran to the U.S. in the 1980s and how Nima made his way to Stanford. He quickly made a name for himself as a talented online poker player — winning millions of dollars and famously showing up to Palantir as a new hire in an Aston Martin. Learn about the lessons Nima brought with him from Palantir into building Blend, and how he took on the ambitious task of bringing the outdated, cumbersome mortgage process online. Next, we dive into Blend’s meteoric rise and fall as the U.S. mortgage industry hit the skids in recent years. Now, Nima believes AI has the company poised for a comeback. Learn about its AI agent, “Autopilot,” and why Blend has the most deployed agents in financial services right now. On this podcast, we talk a lot about new AI-first companies; Blend is a great example of a talented SaaS company embracing AI for a powerful Act II.

00:00 Episode intro

01:45 Millions playing poker to joining Palantir

06:00 Most important lessons from Palantir

07:30 Founding Blend / understanding the mortgage industry

11:25 How to win over banks and risk-averse customers

15:50 Blend’s meteoric rise and fall

19:00 Going all-in on AI agents / Blend’s Act II

22:55 Is Blend undervalued today?

26:50 Impact of AI on internal operations / increased productivity

32:00 The future of SaaS

36:20 The optimistic case for AI

Disclosure: Joe Lonsdale is a principal of Eight Partners VC, LLC (“8VC”), a registered investment adviser whose funds currently hold shares of Blend Labs, Inc. (“Blend”). Joe also has a longstanding personal relationship with Blend and its CEO, having served as an early investor, adviser, and board member. The statements in this episode reflect Joe’s personal views as of the date of recording and may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Nothing in this episode constitutes investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, nor should any statement be understood as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or invest in any 8VC-managed vehicle. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own professional advisers before making any investment decisions. American Optimist is Joe’s personal podcast; the views expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent the views of 8VC or its affiliates.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

In 2010, the U.S. and China were at parity in electricity generation. Today, China boasts triple our capacity. We’re at the vanguard of the AI revolution but falling dangerously behind in energy production. Scott Nolan has identified a key bottleneck in nuclear energy and is at the forefront of the effort to scale nuclear power and help America achieve energy abundance.

While studying at Cornell University, Scott landed an internship at Boeing. He quickly jumped to SpaceX as an early employee and worked on the Falcon propulsion systems and Dragon capsule. He later became Partner at Founders Fund, where he focuses on energy, infrastructure, biotech, and other key sectors. In 2024, he founded General Matter to rebuild America’s nuclear enrichment capacity.

We begin the episode with Scott’s entrepreneurial journey, the contrast between Boeing and SpaceX, and how to build a culture that prioritizes speed and performance in a highly regulated sector. Next, Scott explains the origins of General Matter and breaks down the science behind creating nuclear fuel. In the 1980s, the U.S. produced 80% of global enriched uranium; today that number is zero. Learn how post-Cold War disarmament destroyed our capacity to the point where we are now reliant on Russia, among others, for enrichment. Scott explains how China surged ahead in electricity generation, and what it will take to jumpstart America’s nuclear renaissance. Finally, we cover exciting new possibilities, including nuclear power in space and on the moon, and what a future of cheap, abundant energy could look like.

00:00 Episode intro

01:20 Boeing vs SpaceX / lessons on speed & performance

05:20 What made SpaceX unique?

09:05 General Matter / how to make nuclear fuel

16:45 Disarmament and relying on Russia

19:50 The AI energy crisis / falling behind China

24:30 Founders Fund and energy investing

27:15 How to scale nuclear energy

32:00 How to fund the nuclear buildout

36:15 Nuclear in space & new possibilities

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Is America’s national wealth built on slavery? Are disparities between races today attributable to past injustices? Will we ever overcome race politics? These difficult questions are at the heart of Coleman Hughes’ new course at the University of Austin titled “The Legacy of Slavery.”

Coleman is one of the clearest voices confronting race-essentialism in America today. He’s the author of The End of Race Politics: Arguments for a Colorblind America, host of the Conversations with Coleman podcast, and a visiting professor at the University of Austin.

In this episode, Coleman takes us behind the scenes of his new UATX course, where he examines the two opposing philosophies that emerged from the civil rights era: Dr. King’s colorblind vision and Derrick Bell’s Critical Race Theory. He breaks these down into two camps -- minimalist and maximalist -- and explains how he equips students to weigh the merits of each side. He contrasts the UATX approach, where Thomas Sowell versus Ta-Nehisi Coates takes center stage, to his time at Columbia University and its obsession with racial grievances. Then we dive into a few legacy debates: Is America’s wealth due to slavery? Is the collapse of the two-parent black family a result of past injustice? Finally, Coleman lays out three steps toward an optimistic vision for race in America: get race out of the law (end affirmative action), stop programming children to see race, and foster a growing economy with opportunity for all.

00:00 Episode intro

01:40 Teaching the Legacy of Slavery

06:20 Coleman’s journey from Columbia to UATX

08:30 Dr. King vs Derrick Bell

11:20 Racial disparities by IQ and salary

13:00 Thomas Sowell & the Real History of Slavery

19:00 America’s Founding hypocrisy

24:00 Will the Left cancel Dr. King?

26:20 Understanding the 1619 Project

30:25 Breakdown of the black family

37:20 Is America wealthy because of slavery?

43:50 Are you worried about woke AI?

45:40 Three solutions for racial progress

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

As a former Principal at Founders Fund, Founding Partner at SciFi VC, and 8VC advisor, Eric Scott has invested in and helped build numerous technology leaders. He’s launching his new fund, Overlook Capital, where he sees missed opportunities in the market. How has venture investing evolved in recent years? Where does he see the dislocations? And how will AI change the game going forward?

After graduating from Claremont McKenna College, Eric emailed his way into Max Levchin’s network, becoming an early employee at HVF Labs where he learned to invest and build companies. He later spun out SciFi VC as its Founding Partner, before landing as a Principal at Founders Fund. He was an early investor in Anduril, Crusoe Energy, among others, and a senior advisor at 8VC where he helped us launch Harbor Health.

We begin our conversation with Eric’s journey — from persuading Max Levchin to hire him as a technical assistant to investing at HVF and launching SciFi VC. Next, we dive into the state of venture today. Learn why Eric believes that larger and larger fund sizes are concentrating capital into the hottest AI bets, creating real inefficiencies just below the top tier. He lays out the thesis behind his new firm and where he sees missed opportunities. Finally, Eric shares his optimistic vision for the years ahead and why he believes this is one of the best times in a generation to start and build important companies.

00:00 Episode intro

01:30 Meeting Max Levchin and learning to build

06:30 Launching SciFi VC & investment lessons

12:05 How VC is changing

13:40 Biggest missed opportunity in venture

16:15 Enormous dislocations in the market

21:30 How AI is changing the game

24:00 Overlook Capital

27:50 Optimism for the future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Jacob Helberg is leading the State Department's efforts to secure critical supply chains and win the global AI race. How is the U.S. shifting from dependency on China to building new partnerships around energy, minerals, and infrastructure? Which economies will grow fastest in the AI era? Who will be left behind? And how will this impact geopolitics? We discuss these timely topics with Jacob, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. A tech policy veteran who worked at Google and Palantir before serving on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Jacob was confirmed last fall to help execute the administration’s economic statecraft agenda. He's the author of "The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power."We begin our conversation with Jacob’s mission at the State Department and the launch of Pax Silica: a new US-led economic security coalition to secure supply chains and help America dominate in AI innovation. We dive into Jacob's recent deal in the Philippines to build an AI-native industrial hub, and explore the contrast with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Next, Jacob makes the bull case for AI drawing on lessons from history: the PC revolution displaced 3.5 million jobs, he explains, but created 19 million more with the advent of the software industry! Finally, he explains why principled, positive-sum diplomacy is delivering results where old models failed, and how the AI revolution is transforming the global balance of power.

00:00 Episode intro

02:30 Historic deal with Philippines

05:25 Jacob's background

07:30 Why is Europe falling behind?

13:00 The asymmetric power of tech

15:35 Jacob responds to AI doomers & skeptics

19:15 Global Competition: China, AI, and Diverging Growth

21:45 What is Pax Silica?

23:45 New Global Order in AI age

29:30 Is China pushing back?

31:45 Optimism for the future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Shyam Sankar is one of my favorite American innovators. As CTO of Palantir, he's been a key leader for over 20 years and built much of what the company stands for. He's also a patriot, and recently commissioned as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve. His new best-selling book "Mobilize" lays out the crisis of the American industrial base, how to revive what made us a global superpower, and what it will take to prevent the next great power conflict.

Shyam's father was raised in a mud hut in India. He and his family relocated to Nigeria but fled to the United States after armed robbers nearly murdered them. Shyam joined Palantir as the 13th employee, where he helped shape its unique culture, develop key business strategies, and scale Palantir into a $300+ billion global software giant. In 2025, he was commissioned as a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve's new Detachment 201: Executive Innovation Corps, and earlier this year, he released "Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III."

We begin our conversation with Shyam’s extraordinary journey to the U.S. and what this country means to him. Next, we reminisce about the early days at Palantir and what made the culture unique, from his famous Shyam-isms to living in the office for a month straight to earn free BBQ Fridays. Learn how Shyam coined the term "Forward Deployed Engineers" and proved that the best software is built shoulder-to-shoulder with the customer. Then we dive into his new book and the dangerous atrophy of America’s defense industrial base. Shyam reveals that the U.S. expended 10 years of production in 10 weeks of conflict, and explains how we can once again become the arsenal of democracy. We also discuss the culture at the Pentagon and why some heretics must be protected at all costs. Finally, we explore the clash between leading AI researchers and the Department of War, and how to bridge the gap between Silicon Valley and D.C. and secure the next great American century.

00:00 Episode intro

01:45 Mud hut in India to life in America

05:25 Employee #13 at Palantir

09:45 How Shyam created Forward Deployed Engineers

13:05 What are Shyam-isms?

14:55 Business discipline & learning to say no

19:20 The crisis of the American industrial base

24:00 Some heretics must be protected

29:00 The factory is the weapon

34:00 Magical AI weapons

43:00 Optimism for America's future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Ben Black is the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Backed by a $205 billion budget, his mandate is to invest in U.S. strategic interests, build new markets, and deliver real returns for taxpayers. What projects is the DFC prioritizing? How is he countering China's trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative? And how is the Trump administration shifting from a paternalistic view of foreign aid toward investing with accountability and an expectation of returns?

A history major at the University of Pennsylvania, Ben began his career in finance at Goldman Sachs before earning a JD and MBA at Harvard. He worked in private equity at Apollo Global Management before founding the investment firm Fortinbras. Last fall, he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as CEO of the DFC. His drive to serve was shaped by his grandfather, a WWII tail gunner in the Aleutians, and by watching his father build Apollo into a global powerhouse.

We begin our conversation with Ben’s entrepreneurial journey before diving into the history of U.S. foreign aid. Learn how the U.S. regressed from the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt Europe and fostered investment in America, to promoting a culture of waste and dependency in foreign aid — and how the Trump administration is reversing course (check out our essayfrom January 2025 on these issues). Next, Ben lays out the flaws in China's extractive Belt and Road model and explains how the DFC is developing trusted partners, promoting free-market principles, and investing strategically. From maritime insurance in the Strait of Hormuz to rare earth mining, Ben reveals some of the DFC's recent wins and where he sees new long-term partnerships in South America and Asia. Instead of showering NGOs with taxpayer dollars and creating charity cases abroad, the Trump administration is restoring discipline and accountability — and Ben is a key leader in executing this vision and generating returns for the American people.

00:00 Episode intro

01:25 Ben’s path to DFC

08:30 $205 billion to invest abroad

10:00 Rethinking foreign aid

13:00 From Marshall Plan to waste and fraud

18:50 The Trump administration’s new approach

21:50 Countering China’s Belt & Road Initiative

28:00 Post-WWII order is changing / new opportunities

33:10 Maritime insurance and Strait of Hormuz

37:00 Optimism for America’s future

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Michael Milken revolutionized American finance and democratized access to capital for thousands of companies that Wall Street had previously written off. Yet he was unjustly attacked in the 1980s in one of the most controversial prosecutions in U.S. history. As one of Michael’s key defense lawyers, Richard Sandler sets the record straight in his new book: Witness to a Prosecution: The Myth of Michael Milken. How did Michael transform capital markets through high-yield bonds? Why was he unfairly targeted? Why did he ultimately agree to a plea deal? And what are the lessons about government power that everyone should learn?

We dive into these topics in this week’s episode with Richard Sandler, Partner at the law firm of Maron & Sandler and Executive Vice President and Trustee of the Milken Family Foundation. Richard and Lowell Milken, Michael’s younger brother, met in first grade while growing up in Los Angeles. After practicing law with his father, Richard joined Michael and Lowell’s firm -- Drexel Burnham Lambert -- to help the high-yield bond team. He saw firsthand the entire saga: the explosive rise and fall of Drexel, the unprecedented investigation, and ultimately, President Trump’s pardon of Michael in 2020.

We begin with Michael’s breakthrough in high-yield bonds. Learn how he almost single-handedly transformed the “junk bond” market from $70 billion to $700 billion in a decade, and helped finance the growth of great American entrepreneurs and companies — Ted Turner, Steve Wynn, MCI Communications, among others. Next, Richard walks us through the investigation: the unprecedented use of RICO against Drexel, the targeting of Lowell as a “hostage,” and the novel charges Michael ultimately pled to (none of which had been prosecuted before or since). Finally, we explore the deeper lessons about prosecutorial power, media narratives, and Michael’s extraordinary resilience. He has pushed forward medicine, science, and education in myriad ways, while inspiring many of our great leaders today.

00:00 Episode intro

01:35 Richard’s career & Michael Milken’s legacy

06:25 Why write this book?

08:00 How Michael Milken transformed finance

14:00 Why did they go after Drexel & Michael?

19:30 Using RICO to bring down Drexel

22:30 Prosecutorial abuse & the power of government

26:30 Why did Michael agree to a plea deal?

33:25 Trump grants Michael a full pardon

35:00 Lessons on government power, media influence & Michael’s resilience

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

John Melas-Kyriazi is the co-founder and CEO of Standard Metrics, which powers portfolio management for more than 150 venture capital firms and 10,000 companies. He runs a high-growth SaaS company at the leading edge of the AI wave. How is AI transforming how investors source and diligence deals? How are agents parsing pitch decks, prepping board meetings, and building powerful new workflows? And as competitive advantages shift, what are the new moats for SaaS companies in the AI age?

We discuss these and other timely topics with John. At an early age, he fell in love with science fiction and built vacuum-tube amplifiers in his parents' basement, before studying physics and materials science at Stanford. There he became a research scientist until pivoting to investing, first at StartX and later Spark Capital. Born out of firsthand experience, he co-founded Standard Metrics alongside the 8VC Build team to create a better solution for portfolio management software.

We begin our conversation with John’s path from academia to investor and founder. Next, we explore how Standard Metrics centralizes data, improves portfolio intelligence, and powers smarter investment decisions. Then we dive into the new possibilities with AI, from technical diligence copilots and investment stress-testing to new workflows and internal AI analysts. In an era of new agentic tools and shifting competitive advantages, we discuss new moats for existing software companies built around network effects, data, and more. The world of finance is changing quickly; John offers a unique perspective on the AI wave and how top investors are leveraging new workflows to get ahead.

00:00 Episode intro

02:10 Academia to investor and founder

08:00 The pain point that led to building Standard Metrics

12:10 How AI is transforming venture capital

14:20 AI as a technical copilot

17:10 AI Analyst vs human in the loop

19:20 Parsing pitch decks and new AI tools

23:10 How AI search is changing marketing

28:30 New capabilities and workflows

33:47 How quickly is everything changing?

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

In the coming years, over two million small businesses will change hands or close their doors as Baby Boomers retire. Will Fry, Founder and CEO of American Operator, is on a mission to save Main Street and seize this opportunity for the next generation of local owners and operators. How does the operate-to-own model work? Should talented young people think twice about traditional careers and pursue ownership opportunities instead? And why is Will especially bullish on small business in the AI age?

Raised in a small town in North Carolina, Will developed an early love for building, starting with electronic kits and later unique apps. After studying at Penn and Wharton, a trip home revealed the looming crisis: millions of local businesses that lack succession plans. This sparked the creation of American Operator, which pairs retiring owners with high-agency operators, along with the capital and know-how to build a thriving business.

We begin with Will’s entrepreneurial journey and the coming “Silver Tsunami.” Will explains why only 48% of small business owners have succession plans and what this means for the next generation of owner-operators. He highlights stories like Greenway Painting in Jackson, Wyoming, and how American Operator is helping create millionaires on Main Street while keeping local business local. Next, we explore the historical and cultural importance of small business in America, dating back to John Hancock’s import-export firm and Ben Franklin’s printing shop. Looking ahead, we examine AI’s impact on small businesses. Learn why Will believes SMBs are a great AI hedge, while also having unique upside as new AI tools make small cohorts of people dramatically more productive. Finally, Will explains the operate-to-own model and how American Operator aligns incentives so that original owners become valuable advisors, new operators can earn their way into majority ownership, and American Operator remains a committed partner over the long run.

00:00 Episode intro

01:25 Will’s entrepreneurial journey

04:15 The small business succession crisis

06:40 American Operator’s approach vs. private equity

11:55 Does AI mean boom or bust for small business?

15:55 Forget law school? Buy a small business instead?

21:20 AI use cases for small business

23:00 Why many business owners shut down instead of sell

26:00 How the operate-to-own model works

33:50 Optimism for Main Street America

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com

Last year, JoeBen Bevirt joined the show to discuss the vision behind Joby Aviation and bringing air taxis to life. Now, he's back to talk execution and getting to market this year! What states will be first to offer Joby rides — and when? How is Joby ramping up manufacturing to meet the moment? And how is AI making Joby’s top scientists over 10X more productive and accelerating decades of advancement into the next few years?" As Founder and CEO of Joby Aviation, JoeBen has spent more than a decade building Joby into the leader in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, and we begin with its unique design: 100 times quieter than a helicopter and dramatically safer to operate with layered redundancy across six propulsion stations, dual motors, and dual battery packs. Next, we talk about the significance of Joby's partnership with Toyota, how they're ramping up manufacturing, and why they're massively expanding their Ohio facilities. Then, JoeBen lays out their regulatory progress, from achieving their first FAA-conforming aircraft to the White House's historic pilot program that will bring air taxis to 12 states starting this year, including Texas!Additionally, we explore the coming age of autonomy, why Joby is partnering with NVIDIA to build out its autonomous flight stack, and how AI is transforming everything from aerodynamics research to back-office tasks. You'll also learn about Joby's breakthrough hydrogen-electric program — unlocking long-range commercial and defense applications — and why staying ahead of China is critical for American leadership in this next age of flight. Finally, JoeBen shares his grand vision for an electric era of aviation and a future without traffic — something we can all get behind.

00:00 Episode Intro

01:50 What sets Joby aircraft apart

04:50 Key partnerships with Toyota & NVIDIA

06:50 Closing in on FAA Certification

08:00 Air Taxis coming to 12 states this year!

13:35 Autonomous flight is the future

20:00 Hydrogen aircraft for the Pentagon

24:10 Why AI is a game changer

28:15 Expansion in Ohio and Global Competition with China

34:40 Addressing critics / future vision

35:50 Making air travel ubiquitous

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://blog.joelonsdale.com