Know Your Risk Podcast

November 2, 2026 - Investors fleeing the AI selloff are looking for somewhere safe. But what happens when the hiding places are expensive, too?

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor question the prices investors are paying for familiar businesses like Walmart, Costco, and Apple. A dependable company can still carry substantial valuation risk—and a “defensive” label doesn’t settle whether its stock is worth buying.

They also examine whether forced selling and crowded positions are driving the latest market moves, why falling oil prices and interest rates haven’t provided more support, and what it might take for stocks to establish a durable bottom. Big tech’s continued demand for funding raises another question: can the companies buying AI infrastructure struggle while the businesses supplying it benefit?

The conversation also covers gold, the disconnect between uranium prices and mining stocks, Iran negotiation headlines ahead of the midterms, and the distinction between worrying about deteriorating fundamentals and reacting to a falling price.

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October 30, 2026 - What if AI changes the world—and the stocks you bought to profit from it still struggle?

As technology stocks sell off, Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor separate two questions investors often treat as one: whether AI succeeds, and whether the companies building its infrastructure deliver attractive shareholder returns. Price, expectations, and the spending cycle can make those very different bets.

They examine the case for a rebound in chip stocks if demand remains intact, the risk that the infrastructure cycle is turning, and why a growing business can still disappoint investors. The discussion also covers cybersecurity valuations, Google’s selloff, Berkshire’s purchase timing, and the difference between owning AI-related stocks and lending to those businesses.

Beyond tech, Zach and Chase discuss gold’s sharp pullback, oil’s influence on the broader market, and what the coming elections might actually change for investors. They close with an extended football conversation covering trade value, the Seahawks, and what separates elite NFL players.

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October 29, 2026 - Investors want a piece of the AI boom. But how much new stock will they have to absorb to keep funding it?

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine a problem that gets less attention than earnings growth: the enormous capital needs behind AI. When rising stock prices give companies an opportunity to issue more shares, enthusiasm for the technology can run into a growing supply of stock. What does that mean for investors waiting on the next market high?

The conversation also covers Google’s selloff, Berkshire’s Google purchase, Apple’s stubbornly rich valuation, and whether more AI computing could move onto devices or into smaller, local data centers. As Amazon and Intel earnings arrive during the recording, the discussion turns to a bigger question: if big tech struggles, who takes over market leadership?

Plus, a correction to yesterday’s Google discussion—capital spending guidance was unchanged—and a look at food-price pressures, Bitcoin’s trading range, and the costs of owning gold through a gold-backed IRA.

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October 28, 2026 - A brilliant founder. An impressive board. A compelling story. None of those proves the investment works. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor revisit Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos to examine how confidence and famous names can lend credibility to claims investors should be questioning.

A discussion of a Holmes documentary opens a broader conversation about trust, due diligence and why some investors remain willing to back people associated with spectacular failures. What happens when the reputation surrounding a business becomes more persuasive than the evidence behind it?
Elsewhere, Zach and Chase explore a different investing tension: slowing AI spending could improve cash flow for the companies doing the building, even as suppliers benefit from spending more. They examine Oracle’s outlook, debate AI earnings expectations, and react as Microsoft and Alphabet move in opposite directions following their earnings releases.

Plus, rising oil prices, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, and the gap between political messaging on affordability and the costs households face.

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October 27, 2026 - What if the biggest threat to today’s AI winners isn’t fading demand—but technology getting better? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how cheaper chips, more efficient systems and AI’s own breakthroughs could put pressure on the profit margins powering the stock-market boom.

Zach argues that demand for greater computing power could keep expanding while the economics change for the companies supplying it. Chase offers a counterpoint: falling costs can encourage more adoption, and Nvidia’s advantage could prove more durable than skeptics expect. The question is who captures the profits as AI becomes cheaper and more useful.

They also unpack the latest AI fundraising, distinguish operating profitability from the enormous spending required to build these businesses, and question why investors reward some companies for reinvesting while penalizing others. Later, they weigh whether the recent selloff cleared enough crowded positions for a recovery—and why CoreWeave still presents radically different bull and bear cases.

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October 26, 2026 - A political shock sends investors scrambling out of Brazil. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor see a reason to start buying. Chase describes adding a small position in a Brazilian small-cap ETF that fell as much as 38% intraday before closing down roughly 31.6%—and explains why he thinks the selling went further than the underlying businesses justified.

Their argument isn’t that Brazil’s problems disappeared. High interest rates, government deficits and political uncertainty remain real obstacles. The question is whether investors had priced in too much optimism before the election—and then swung too far toward pessimism afterward.

That same search for indiscriminate selling leads them to software stocks, including Adobe, DocuSign and Toast. They discuss how the AI trade could keep pressuring the sector, why company fundamentals still matter, and how stock charts can reveal a turn before the business story becomes obvious.

Plus, conflicting signals from the oil market, the approaching U.S. midterms, and why Zach would consider buying an election-driven selloff if the economy’s biggest spending engines remain intact.

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October 23, 2026 - AI stocks have already delivered enormous gains. That doesn’t mean the best evidence points to a top. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain their reluctant bullish case: demand could have much further to run, and some of the companies supplying the buildout look surprisingly inexpensive if projected earnings materialize.

Zach makes the case that widespread adoption of personal AI agents could require vastly more computing power than exists today. Chase explains how using agents in his own work has influenced his outlook—and why he sees a buildout chasing existing demand rather than simply hoping customers arrive.

But their optimism comes with a distinction: growing demand doesn’t protect profit margins. They examine Nvidia, Micron and other potential opportunities while weighing competition, financing pressures and breakthroughs that could make today’s hardware less valuable.
Plus, why they suspect forced selling helped drive this week’s turbulence, the disconnect between uranium prices and mining stocks, and how computing on phones and other devices could change the next phase of AI.

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October 22, 2026 - The AI buildout can keep going while shareholders pay a growing price. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine Meta’s financing plans and the risk that issuing more stock to fund enormous spending commitments dilutes the investors already holding shares
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The tension runs through a confusing market session: AI stocks and gold miners fall, Apple rallies, oil climbs and bond yields drop. Is this an economic warning, investors unwinding crowded trades, or a combination of both? Zach and Chase explain why they’re questioning the signals without declaring the AI investment cycle over.

They also debate the opportunity and rising costs in gold miners, assess the market implications of renewed escalation with Iran, and discuss why getting one big call right doesn’t make any commentator worth following blindly—including themselves.

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October 21, 2026 - A Tesla–SpaceX combination could give investors a bigger growth story. But who would actually be funding it? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor unpack the merger talk and question whether Tesla shareholders would be financing SpaceX’s capital demands while still paying a growth-stock valuation.

They separate admiration for Elon Musk’s achievements from the price they’re willing to pay for his companies—and explain why rising revenue doesn’t automatically make an expensive stock a better investment. Chase also examines the upside and risk of renting AI computing capacity through short-term deals instead of locking customers into multiyear contracts.

Later, Zach and Chase question whether stronger Gulf oil shipments represent a lasting recovery, explain why upcoming big-tech earnings matter for the broader market, and investigate an unexpected pocket of strength in hotel REITs.

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October 20, 2026 - The next catalyst for AI stocks might come from the oil market. Chase Taylor explains why an end to the Iran war—and the relief it could bring to energy prices, inflation and borrowing costs—could change the outlook for companies financing the AI buildout.

Flying solo, Chase lays out why AI exposure could serve as a hedge for an energy-heavy portfolio, even after he questioned the trade at higher prices. He digs into both sides of CoreWeave: debt costs that threaten shareholder returns, and customer contracts, continued demand for computing power and potential support from Nvidia that complicate the bearish case.

Plus, why weak housing activity hasn’t produced a nationwide collapse in home prices, and what a broader stock-market rally could mean for companies squeezed by expensive financing.

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October 19, 2026 - Believing AI will change the world is one thing. Knowing which stocks will reward investors is another. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain why they can be enthusiastic about the technology while questioning whether today’s AI infrastructure winners belong in a buy-and-hold portfolio.

CoreWeave brings that tension into focus: strong demand for computing power can coexist with expensive borrowing and a fragile business model. Zach and Chase discuss why they favor trading parts of the AI buildout, what makes biotech a different long-term proposition, and the danger of buying the next Cisco while expecting the next Microsoft.

They also debate billionaire stock gifts, corporate taxes and government spending before examining why longer-dated oil prices are putting more pressure on an Iran resolution.

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October 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase unpack a market that seemed to ignore mounting risks—until volatility finally jumped. Zach makes a candid confession: they cut their VIX exposure in half the day before the surge. They discuss oil pushing toward $100, rates and options positioning, then look ahead to Big Tech earnings and the question hanging over the AI buildout: can the returns justify the enormous capital it requires?

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October 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the tension inside the AI boom: demand for compute is rising, but token prices are falling as the industry keeps investing in more capacity. They examine what that could mean for hyperscalers, leveraged neoclouds, and the economics of the buildout. They also discuss the bond market’s response to hot inflation data and the risks of shorter-term Treasury borrowing.

October 14, 2026 — AI-token prices are falling even as volume grows. Is that evidence the technology is getting cheaper to use—or a warning for businesses carrying huge infrastructure costs? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor weigh the pressure on AI economics against the possibility that, if demand and forecasts hold, the AI trade is still underpriced. They also discuss the hot CPI print, the bond market’s unexpected move, and war-related oil and shipping risks.

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October 14, 2026 — President Trump says inflation can pay down the national debt. Rudy Havenstein calls inflation “a super regressive default,” arguing that it shifts the cost onto ordinary households while the wealthy are better positioned to benefit.

Zach Abraham and Rudy discuss what official inflation measures miss, the Fed’s role in supporting asset prices, rising wealth inequality, and why Rudy sees “too big to fail” and “too big to jail” as connected problems.

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October 13, 2026 — The biggest technology stocks continue to dominate the market, while small caps, rate-sensitive businesses and parts of the real economy are telling a very different story.

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down an increasingly divided market: the Magnificent Seven reaching another record while small caps lag, crowded positioning between the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, and why Chase says he’s becoming more bullish on parts of the AI trade after months of valuation concerns.

They also debate the enormous spending behind the AI buildout, what investors may be overlooking in hyperscaler economics, whether chip earnings can continue justifying current prices, and why an economy increasingly divided between AI-linked businesses and rate-sensitive sectors may make the major indexes harder to read.

Plus: energy risks, diesel prices, inflation, interest rates and what the bond market may be signaling next.

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October 12, 2026 — Apple is now worth roughly $4.5 trillion and trading around 44 times earnings. Zach Abraham says he’s struggling to make the fundamental math work.Zach and Chase Taylor break down the disconnect between Apple’s enormous valuation, its recent revenue growth, buybacks and capital spending — and debate why investors continue treating the company almost like a safe-haven asset despite a valuation that would historically have been associated with much faster growth.

They also examine continued disruptions in global energy markets, shrinking oil flows through the Strait, pressure on strategic petroleum reserves, why oil remains a major driver of rates and inflation, and the increasingly awkward divide between mega-cap technology stocks and the rest of the market.Later, Zach and Chase return to the concentration problem in U.S. equities and discuss whether today’s largest companies can continue growing into their valuations — or whether time, earnings growth and eventually price will have to close the gap.

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October 9, 2026 — Gold, miners and other real-asset trades are beginning to behave differently, even on days when the U.S. dollar is holding up. Zach Abraham says the pattern is starting to resemble a return of the “debasement trade.”

Zach and Chase Taylor explain what that actually means: assets that can benefit when investors become increasingly concerned about inflation, government spending and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. They also discuss why today’s cycle looks unusually distorted by massive AI investment, why capital is flowing into parts of Asia at extraordinary rates, and whether investors should be looking more seriously at international markets and real assets.

Later, Zach and Chase examine the latest diesel-policy response, continued disruptions around the Strait and Saudi energy infrastructure, and why Chase — after years of being bearish on long-duration bonds — is getting surprisingly close to becoming tactically bullish.

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October 8, 2026 — Artificial-intelligence spending has become so enormous that Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor believe it increasingly belongs in the macroeconomic conversation — not just the technology conversation.

Back together in the studio, Zach and Chase examine how massive AI capital spending may be contributing to economic growth and inflation, and why any meaningful slowdown in that spending could eventually matter for bond yields.

They also dig into new questions surrounding OpenAI’s revenue trajectory and financing needs, the widening gap between enormous AI investment and the revenue required to support it, and why the eventual economics of the hyperscalers may look very different from today’s headline growth rates. Their discussion includes significant uncertainty around reported private-company numbers and what those figures do — and do not — tell investors.

Later, Zach and Chase discuss the financialization of everyday life, the explosion of sports betting and prediction markets, and why increasingly speculative financial products are forcing them to reconsider where personal freedom ends and predatory incentives begin.

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October 7, 2026 — Inflation can reduce the real burden of government debt. But that doesn't make the debt disappear — it changes who bears the cost.

Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are finally back together, and they begin by unpacking the idea that inflation can effectively help governments manage enormous debt loads by reducing the future purchasing power of the currency used to repay them.

That discussion expands into what Zach and Chase see as the next phase of the monetary and fiscal cycle: persistently high borrowing costs, fiscal dominance, the possibility of increasingly unconventional policy responses, and why investors may need to think differently about cash and real assets over the next decade.

They also examine the extreme concentration in U.S. equities, the economic cost of reindustrialization, the extraordinary scale of the AI capital-spending boom, and why today's economy is becoming increasingly difficult to compare with previous investment cycles.

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