Manifold

Special episode recorded in Beijing. Steve discusses the future of mathematics in light of recent AI breakthroughs, the state of AI in China, and some thoughts on China's innovation economy.

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Beijing walk
• (03:44) - OpenAI Shocks Math World
• (07:11) - Will Humans Quit Math
• (11:01) - Tao Versus Yau Visions
• (12:38) - Building Hard Math Data
• (13:56) - China AI Ecosystem, US AI bubble and P (Doom)
• (15:58) - US-China AI competition
• (21:52) - Hangzhou meeting and financial markets

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Are we in an AI bubble?

Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation.

Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs.

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Conference Takeaways
• (03:21) - AI Capability Leap
• (07:36) - Both Things True
• (08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks
• (10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle
• (18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals
• (31:45) - IPO and Bubble Fallout

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Brian Chau is a mathematician, machine learning specialist, and the founder of Effort News, an independent media outlet focused on data-first, document-led investigative journalism.

https://www.effort.news/

https://x.com/brianchau57

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Intro
• (03:14) - Network School Fallout
• (14:17) - Effort News Origins
• (17:24) - AI Reporting Workflow
• (35:41) - Medicare Medicaid Momentum
• (37:05) - Epstein Files AI Law
• (43:27) - Biolabs Base Rates Debate
• (47:27) - Business Model And AI Math Finale

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Machine God is a feature-length AI documentary film, created by Steve Hsu, John Greer, and Lei Huang. This episode discusses the film's creation and content.

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Meet the Filmmakers
• (02:06) - Berkeley AI Boomtown Origins
• (19:23) - Techno Capital and the Pause Plea
• (38:55) - Why Slow Down AI
• (41:40) - Recursive Self Improvement
• (46:01) - Gradual Disempowerment
• (51:48) - Film Release and Closing

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dr. Thomas Fink is an Anglo-American physicist, author, and entrepreneur who serves as the founding Director of the London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS).

He studied physics at Caltech, where he won the Fisher Prize, and earned his PhD at Cambridge University. His research focuses on statistical physics, combinatorics, and evolvable systems, using these tools to gain insights into physical and biological systems.

In 2011, Dr. Fink founded LIMS, the UK's first independent research centre for theoretical physics and mathematics. Located in the historic Royal Institution in Mayfair, LIMS operates like a university research department but with no teaching or administrative duties, allowing its researchers to focus entirely on full-time, curiosity-driven discovery.

London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (LIMS): https://lims.ac.uk/

Dr. Thomas Fink's Profile at LIMS: https://lims.ac.uk/thomas-fink/

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Thomas Fink: Caltech, Cambridge, CNRS Paris
• (07:27) - Rethinking Academia
• (13:05) - Building LIMS
• (31:18) - Saving Basic Science
• (33:46) - Endowments Versus Governments
• (40:28) - AI Reshaping Research Culture
• (52:17) - Closing Thoughts

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Bohan Lou is a partner at Chemistry Ventures, based in SF.
https://x.com/loubohan

Bohan's report on the venture ecosystem in China:

https://x.com/loubohan/status/2082143914924851449

Chapter Markers:

• (01:42) - Venture Capital in China; Bohan’s Shanghai Roots
• (11:15) - Chemistry Fund and China Investing
• (20:04) - China Trip and Venture Reality Check
• (32:18) - Pressure Cooker: Founder Exits and Financial Liability
• (33:50) - Variation in Founder-Friendly investment environment
• (46:52) - AI Models and Open Source
• (58:56) - Big Picture and Wrap Up

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This is a crossover episode with Alf Beckinsale, an Oxford University student who hosts the Seeking Truth From Facts podcast. The main topics are the US-Iran conflict, geopolitics, and US-China AI competition.

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (02:33) - No Off Ramp in Gulf
• (04:11) - Missile Stockpile Crisis
• (06:46) - Oil Shock and Reserves
• (14:07) - Israel Stays Out
• (29:34) - China Frontier AI Surge
• (43:25) - World War and Nukes

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Steve discusses the state of AI in summer 2026. Topics covered include: AI in math and theoretical physics, Recursive Self-Improvement, Agent swarms and tokenomics, IPOs and US-China competition, documentary film Machine God.

Machine God trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RSv3wmDIpY

Theoretical Physics with Generative AI: https://stevehsu.substack.com/p/theoretical-physics-with-generative

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - State of AI, Summer 2026
• (02:39) - AI in Math Physics
• (13:54) - Recursive Self-Improvement
• (21:08) - DeepSeek Hyperconnections
• (29:42) - Agent Swarms and Tokenomics
• (43:26) - Machine God Documentary

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) is a Canadian physicist, quantum computing researcher, and tech entrepreneur. He is best known as the founder of the Effective Accelerationism (e/acc) movement.

This interview was recorded in collaboration with John Greer and Lei Huang for the documentary film Machine God.

John Greer: https://www.johncgreer.com/

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Meet Beff Jezos
• (01:56) - Hyperstition vs AI Doom
• (21:29) - Accelerate or Die
• (37:51) - Scaling Intelligence Upside
• (40:26) - Doomers Power Centralization
• (47:17) - EAC Physics Framework
• (01:10:10) - Debating Doom Narratives
• (01:16:13) - Beff Jezos Origin Story
• (01:28:06) - Pause Debate and Rapid Fire

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This episode was recorded live at Manifest 2026. Razib Khan is a prominent writer, population geneticist, and podcaster. He is best known for his extensive deep-dives into human evolutionary history, consumer genomics, culture, and ancient DNA.

https://x.com/razibkhan

https://x.com/razibkhan?lang=en

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Razib Khan at Manifest 2026: Genetic Discoveries, AI, and Academia
• (01:18) - Manifest Q&A Kickoff
• (02:43) - Yamnaya: Ancient DNA Mysteries
• (15:01) - Yamnaya: Y Chromosome Conquests
• (22:10) - Embryo Screening and AI
• (42:15) - Conformity and Tenure
• (46:34) - Academia: Reforms
• (53:55) - Academia: Ideological Capture and Funding
• (58:19) - Controversies and Closing Q&A

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This special episode was recorded at Tsinghua University in Beijing, generally regarded as the top university in China. Our guests are 3 Americans studying and working at Tsinghua: Gabriel (undergrad), Justin (PhD student in AI), and Alex (Professor in AI research). Topics discussed include: Tsinghua University and elite human capital, AI in China, US-China competition, and the flow of human capital between the US and China

Han Feizi, columnist at Asia Times and the guest from the previous "Letter from Beijing" episode, is also in the room. Letter from Beijing with Han Feizi: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Welcome to Tsinghua University
• (02:47) - Gabriel’s Undergrad Journey
• (12:35) - Justin’s PhD
• (25:10) - Professor Alex on AI and Rankings
• (42:51) - Second Chances and Status Signals
• (46:48) - China’s Exam Ladder Explained
• (50:20) - Infrastructure and Tech Competition
• (01:17:18) - Semiconductors, EUV, and Wrap Up

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Jaan Tallinn is a tech billionaire and founding engineer of Skype who leverages his wealth to mitigate existential risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI). He co-founded the Future of Life Institute and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, while making early foundational investments in frontier AI labs like DeepMind andAnthropic.

Chapter Markers:

00:00 Assessing Current AI Risk Levels
03:28 Inside Self-Sustaining AI Scenarios
09:10 The Global AI Race Dynamics
42:25 Explaining the Techno-Capital Flywheel
45:34 Insider Origins of AI Safety
56:06 Race Politics and Public Fear
01:23:12 Pop Culture, Movies, and Fame
01:30:15 Big Questions for Humanity's Future

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Dr. Alex Young, a statistical geneticist and assistant professor in the Human Genetics department at UCLA, joins Steve Hsu to discuss the cutting edge of genomic prediction. They cover his research on polygenic embryo screening in IVF (including the ImputePGTA method), family-based DNA analysis, missing heritability, and the implications of polygenic scores for traits like education and disease. Alex also discusses his recent battles with cancer.

https://x.com/AlexTISYoung

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Alex Young Bio
• (06:36) - Biobank Era Genetics
• (10:49) - Missing Heritability Debate
• (27:18) - Embryo Selection Controversy
• (50:32) - Embryo Selection Backlash
• (53:42) - Mexico City Admixture Study
• (01:00:13) - Censorship Via Data Access Control
• (01:05:02) - Battle With Cancer and Circulating Tumor DNA (ctDNA)

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Steve and Alf discuss the Iran War, emphasizing what it

reveals about modern missile and anti-missile technology, drones, and

the implications for a US-China conflict in the Western Pacific.

Links:
https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Missile War Reality Check
• (01:49) - How the War Started
• (04:46) - Iran Outperforms Expectations
• (06:22) - Why Missile Defense Fails
• (14:25) - Ceasefire and Hormuz Brinkmanship
• (19:52) - Nukes and the JCPOA Fallout
• (33:44) - US Politics and Israel Lobby Aftershocks

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Richard Ngo is an independent AI researcher and philosopher known for

his work on AGI safety and alignment. He recently resigned from

OpenAI, where he was a member of the Governance team focused on

forecasting the capabilities and risks of advanced AI systems. His

debut fiction collection is titled "The Gentle Romance: Stories of AI

and Humanity", published in December 2025. The book features 22

science fiction stories that explore the psychological and

sociological impacts of advanced artificial intelligence.

On X: @RichardMCNgo

• (00:00) - Richard Ngo Origins
• (03:48) - DeepMind vs LLMs
• (09:24) - OpenAI Futurist and AGI Risk
• (39:17) - Machine God Tail Risk
• (45:20) - Weird Futures and Normies
• (51:28) - Alignment Research and Academia
• (01:16:25) - Doomers vs Skeptics
• (01:23:57) - Labs Governance Futures
• (01:39:37) - Doom Scenarios Society

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Matt Southey is an editor for an AI safety organization. He wrote his PhD dissertation on the philosophy of Nick Land. Matt's "A Brief History of Accelerationism" can be found here, and he recommends the second chapter of Crypto-Current as a good introduction to Land's usage of Kant. He and Steve discuss Accelerationism, AI, and Steve's recent meeting with Land in Shanghai.

Chapter Markers:

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (02:07) - China Trip: Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai
• (03:16) - Tsinghua University: Talent
• (09:02) - Robotics and AI research
• (24:01) - Shanghai and Nick Land
• (35:46) - Land’s Esotericism
• (37:19) - Accelerationism and Orthogonality
• (43:01) - Simulation Metaphysics and Physics
• (54:36) - Dark Enlightenment and Inevitable Complexity

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Recorded live in Shenzhen with Taylor Ogan, the founder and CEO of

Snowbull Capital, which invests in Chinese technology companies.

Taylor on X:

https://x.com/TaylorOgan

Previous episodes with Taylor:

https://youtu.be/iehHON07UHI?si=h2c3po5AX9Z9ANaK

https://youtu.be/fmjR3me5s_Q?si=sPsMFOdKebEOZXQr

• (00:00) - Shenzhen is the Technology Capital of the World, with Taylor Ogan
• (00:53) - Meeting in Shenzhen
• (02:40) - Greater Bay Area Explained
• (06:36) - Shenzhen Boom Stories
• (18:26) - China Tech Reality Check
• (36:49) - China Tech Leapfrogging
• (37:52) - Agentic AI on Phones
• (41:27) - Jobs Wealth and Governance
• (53:03) - Huawei Ownership and US Pushback

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI.

Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus, an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety. SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the loss landscape and internal structure in models. This connection is used to develop scalable, rigorous tools for evaluating, interpreting, and aligning neural networks. Jesse is one of the leading young minds in the new generation of AI safety researchers.

https://www.jessehoogland.com/

• (00:00) - Jesse interview at FAR Labs, Berkeley
• (00:54) - Introduction
• (01:50) - From Physics to AI Safety
• (08:36) - AI Is Dangerous
• (26:08) - Funding, P(Doom), and Futures
• (56:21) - Trauma and Safety Vibes
• (01:00:39) - Asymptotic Guarantees Debate
• (01:03:54) - Mapping the Safety Tribes
• (01:26:09) - Timelines, AI Pause, and Failure Modes

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.

This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI.

• (00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105
• (01:47) - Introduction and Welcome
• (05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography
• (08:48) - AGI House and collectives
• (43:59) - AI and Scientific Research
• (45:52) - Existential Risks and Doom
• (54:14) - AI and Human Progress
• (01:26:42) - Job Automation and Society
• (01:31:35) - Future of AI and Technology

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.

Links:

Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future

https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034

Dan's 2025 annual letter

https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

Related episodes:

Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99

• (00:00) - Introduction and Welcome
• (02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book
• (05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape
• (21:07) - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents
• (47:59) - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua
• (51:09) - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter
• (52:56) - China's Market Competition and Innovation
• (56:34) - AI, Automation, and Future Risks

–

Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Announcing this for some friends at Mechanize - a startup that builds environments for training and evaluating frontier LLMs. Its customers include the top AI labs, and it has contributed to the breakthrough in coding capabilities of frontier models.

Mechanize is hiring!

https://mechanize.work/b/hsu

Compensation is extremely competitive. For technical roles, $300-500k. They are also seeking smart generalists.

For example:

Research Engineer, Alignment: Build evals that test for misaligned model behaviors $500K salary

Puzzle Maker: Design interesting and original puzzles that LLMs can’t yet solve $300K salary

Mechanize understands that my readership is highly selected. There is a VERY GOOD CHANCE you will be interviewed if you apply via the link above.