Market Talk

Three key things David is watching in today's markets:

• The latest crop progress report & delays from the rains today
• Cash Cattle and the new reporting system
• Lean Hog fundamentals (Cash)

Election headlines are raising questions about potential pressure on overnight grain trade, with traders watching to see how markets respond. Despite harvest delays, the market appears less concerned about the slower pace of harvest. Crude oil weakness and post-election uncertainty are adding pressure, while improving corn export sales suggest lower prices are helping attract demand.

Grain markets struggled to find direction in Tuesday’s trade, raising questions about whether election-related uncertainty or other market factors are driving the pressure. A full breakdown of the markets for today come from Jeff Peterson at Heartland Farm Partners, Jacob Burks at AgMarket and Arlan Suderman with StoneX

Crude oil prices are moving lower as post-election uncertainty and escalating tensions weigh on the market. Grain traders are also looking ahead to next week’s major crop report, with positioning likely to pick up as the numbers approach. In livestock trade, disappointment in the cash cattle market has been followed by a modest bounce in futures. Meanwhile, the hog market continues to face a demand problem rather than an issue with supplies.

Big day drop in the beans, Mexico starts making their November grain purchases, energy moves, and some growing concerns over export sales for corn. What is in store for us in November with the weather? Hear from Mike Minor at Professional Ag Marketing, Eric Snodgrass at Nutrien Ag Solutions and wrapping up the final two segments, John Heinberg at Total Farm Marketing.

Money flow, outside pressure & wrapping up a frustrating October.

The Friday Market Talk breaks down the trade with Sue Martin of Ag & Investment, Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading, Joe Kooima at Kooima Kooima Varilek (KKV Trading) and Arlan Suderman at StoneX

Grain markets saw another headline-driven move after Bloomberg reported that China is looking at U.S. wheat. Trading algorithms quickly reacted to the news, sending prices higher as traders assessed the potential for additional Chinese demand.

In livestock markets, hog futures are finding a bounce, while cattle are pulling back after a period of strong prices. Meanwhile, a significant drop in unemployment numbers this week is adding another economic factor for markets to digest.

Higher hogs, pull back in cattle, not loosing faith in the markets as many wonder if tops have been set and will harvest pressure continue. Joining us today is Kyle Bumsted at Allendale, Brad Kooima at Kooima Kooima Varilek and Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing.

The Wednesday Market Wrap Up brings global wheat, Black Sea concerns, fed interest rates being left unchanged, deep dive in the hogs amongst other grain and livestock movers today. Hear from Arlan Suderman at StoneX, Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics and Terry Linn with Linn & Associates.

Grain markets are seeing a path of least resistance to the downside at midday, with traders watching key technical levels for signs of support. Corn is testing its next area of support near recent lows, while soybeans are keeping an eye on the 100-day moving average after Monday’s sharp selloff.

The weaker Brazilian real is adding pressure to soybeans by making Brazilian supplies more competitive on the world market, potentially challenging U.S. export demand. Meanwhile, traders are watching reports of possible progress toward a deal to reopen Black Sea grain shipping routes. Any progress on that front could add further pressure to wheat prices by easing concerns over regional supply disruptions.

Midday Markets with Arlan Suderman at StoneX

Today's episode brings a market break down from Heather Ramsey at the ARC Group, Cory Bratland at AgMarket and Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors.

U.S. soybean export demand remains strong, but corn inspections delivered a disappointing number for the week ended October 22. USDA inspected 91 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment, while corn inspections totaled just 24.6 million bushels, the lowest weekly total in three years. Wheat inspections reached 6.8 million bushels, while no grain sorghum was inspected for export.

Despite the slower pace in corn, marketing-year-to-date inspections have reached 385 million bushels, reflecting an unseasonably strong start to the export season.

Meanwhile, political developments in Brazil are drawing attention from global grain traders. Brazilian stock futures reportedly plunged nearly 15% early in the session following the unexpected runoff election victory of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Trading was briefly halted after circuit breakers were triggered. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and the second-largest corn exporter, making developments there important to global agricultural markets.

On today's Market Talk we hear from Mike Minor at Professional Ag Marketing, Eric Snodgrass on weather at Nutrien Ag Solutions and wrapping up the trade is John Heinberg at Total Farm Marketing.

Susan Littlefield sits in for Jesse Allen today.

Joining Jesse Allen is David Widmar

Joining Susan Littlefield is Scott Varilek and David Ericson.

Midday grain markets are seeing some healthy follow-through, with soybeans and wheat posting a nice bounce. Corn, meanwhile, is beginning to feel harvest pressure as combines continue to bring in the crop.

Soybean quality remains a concern as harvest reveals discolored beans, including brown and purple shades linked to fungal issues following wet weather. That discoloration could create challenges for export markets, particularly shipments moving through Pacific Northwest ports to Asia.

Soybean demand remains a key market focus, while traders continue to balance export interest against harvest pressure and quality concerns.

In the livestock trade, positioning is underway ahead of this afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. Traders will be looking for fresh insight into feedlot supplies and beef inventories as the cattle market weighs its next move.

Friday midday markets with Arlan Suderman at StoneX

Bryan Doherty, Senior Market Advisor at Total Farm Marketing, joins Market Talk to break down Thursday's grain close, why wheat keeps sliding, the corn yield debate, harvest storage decisions, and what to watch in cattle, hogs and dairy. Corn and bean selling dried up, but is a low in? Bryan explains why fund liquidation and harvest pressure still have the upper hand, why farmers' yield reports do not match USDA's number, and why he says now may be a smart time to lock in feed costs. More at https://www.totalfarmmarketing.com.

Also, will the cash market wait until after Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, or will stronger prices show up this week? On this week’s Cattle Chatter, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek breaks down tighter supplies, heavier cattle, heifer retention and stronger sale barn prices. He also answers viewer questions about President Trump’s executive orders aimed at supporting American ranchers and improving transparency in livestock markets. Plus, what role could NASDAQ play in the future of cattle futures trading?

Soybeans and soybean oil are the leaders at midday while it is mixed to lower trade elsewhere. We talk about it with Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, in our Market Talk Midday Commentary.

Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics joins Market Talk to break down wheat's slide toward major support, what El Nino rains in southern Brazil could mean for soybeans and corn, why Illinois basis levels point to a shorter corn crop, and what USDA's new cash cattle reports and Friday's Cattle on Feed report could mean for livestock futures. Learn more from Mike Zuzolo at Global Commodity Analytics: www.globalcommresearch.com.

We also hear from Susan Littlefield as she talked with Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, with a recap of Wednesday's trade in Segment One and a look at ag news headlines to close the show in Segment Four.

On today's show, Tommy Grisafi of Ag Bull Media and Nesvick Trading Group joins Market Talk host Jesse Allen to react to the new $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program announced by the Trump administration. Tommy explains why government aid can pressure futures, what harvest pressure means for corn near $4.60, how a wild day in crude oil is rippling through grains, and why cattle are finding support.

Later, Tyler Schau of AgMarket joins us to break down a cattle market that keeps grinding higher while grains slide after the October WASDE. Tyler explains why cattle barely reacted to Mexican border headlines, what to expect from Friday's Cattle on Feed report, why hogs can't keep pace with beef, how fund selling is shaping corn, soybeans and wheat, and why farmers may be locking the bin door after the new $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief program announcement.

We saw the grain markets trading lower at midday while cattle were pushing higher. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, joins us to discuss the markets and the news of $8 billion of relief for farmers announced by President Trump on Monday evening.