Market Trends with Tracy

DAIRY Two weeks of the dairy markets rocking higher, and we’re done with that. Through Thursday’s close, block is holding steady, barrel is up two, and butter took a decline by five. We’ll see what’s next, but we should have a fairly steady market heading into November.

BEEF Beef production continues in the same basic range we've been in for months. 546K head harvested last week, just down from the prior week of 553K head. This week, a third crossing from Mexico was opened for live animals. A fourth crossing is expected to open the end of November. The New World screw worm continues to be detected every week; this last week the first detection of an elk at a big game hunting ranch and a domestic cat, in addition to cattle, goats, and sheep. We finish October on a steady decline for most items; turning to November and the holiday season I do think we’ll see middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins take this market higher, possibly higher than we’ve ever seen. Thin meats, brisket, sirloin flap, flank steak, all continue lower and I think we’re about to the bottom of this run, so though I don’t expect pricing to jump, I do expect we’ve about hit bottom on a few cuts. I’d stay ahead of my needs; inventories no matter the cost, are tight.

POULTRY Last week we saw our first million-bird Avian flu case for the first time since last spring. This week we see that move up to 1.4 million birds affected by Avian flu; 1.3 million of those cases are egg laying hens. Looking at fresh chicken, party wings are getting support, moving higher next week. Boneless skinless random breasts and tenders are holding steady for next week. While production is still up over last year, that margin is shrinking a bit trying to get pricing higher. I don’t expect the bottom to fall out of chicken pricing, but other than wings, I'm not sure I see much upside for the short term.

GRAINS The 2026 corn harvest is now about 60 percent complete. 56 percent of the harvest is rated good to excellent; 18 percent is rated poor to very poor. Pricing is a few pennies up from last week, but still well below $5 a bushel. I don’t expect much movement in corn pricing. The 2026 soy crop is 79 percent done with an average 53.1 bushels per acre. Pricing is steady for the week. Wheat is moving lower; export demand is backing down and there have been some successful shipments through the Black Sea. For now, grains are in a good place.

PORK There were a few articles this week about over supply of pork and lack of demand. We’ve been seeing that with the soft pricing the last few weeks. Today bellies closed at $65.69. The pandemic of 2020 had markets lower, but other than Covid, this market compares to pricing from 2015. Butts, ribs, and loins are a great protein value.

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DAIRY Last week the block market went off, jumping up $.19/# by the CME close on Friday. This week, not letting up with the block up $.20/# through Thursday’s close. Now the barrel is joining block, up $.19/# with today’s close while butter is up a respectable $.04/#. When markets rocket up like this, they usually stall pretty quickly, so while we do have to deal with these big increases, I think it will be done fairly soon. Demand for export and tightening inventories are what is pushing this market right now.

BEEF Beef harvest last week was 553K head, up from the prior week of 535K. This week, we're finally seeing these prices pause and actually a couple things moving lower, which is a welcome change. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, are all pausing their walk higher every week, even down a few pennies. Thin meats, think briskets, flank, and sirloin flap, still have a bit more room to decline, I think. Rounds and chucks seem to be settled for now. Grinds are steady as well, but I do think we could see grinds picking up steam as we head into November. We will have a third entry point for cattle from Mexico scheduled to open next week with a fourth expected in about a month. That is all good news for available cattle. Inventories continue to be tight, so stay ahead of your needs and take the declines when you are ready.

POULTRY The big news this week in poultry is the Avian Flu tally for the last week. Six new cases were reported, affecting about 1 million egg laying chickens. Cooler weather and wild bird migration are factors for increased Avian Flu cases. Looking at fresh chicken, demand for boneless skinless random breasts is pushing prices lower; wings and tenders are holding steady, but I do think we could see continued softness in chicken pricing. Chicken producers have been pushing production higher, and it might just have finally caught up with them.

GRAINS Corn continued to decline; today’s close was $4.65, down from last week’s $4.79. Soy and wheat are falling in behind the corn with similar declines. With a big corn and soy crop in harvest, moving inventory becomes more important than the price. Biofuels will continue to play an important role in keeping grains moving.

PORK Pork pricing is soft, demand is soft, making a great opportunity to present great values. Today’s belly close of $84.59 is just up from last week’s close of $83.33; we're still well under $100 which makes bellies - and bacon - a great buy. Butts, loins, and ribs are all holding steady for the next week; pork is a great protein value.

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DAIRY Last week just a minor sign this market is about at bottom. This week, dairy is rocking higher. Through Thursday’s close, butter finally gets on track up two, barrel is up three, while block, the driver of natural cheese costs, is up a whopping 16 cents. Exports are helping here and demand is finally pushing up. Let's keep an eye on this, it's been a while since the cheese market was rocking higher.

BEEF I look at the pricing on middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips, and we are already higher than last year’s holiday season. How high can they push this market this year? One analyst I follow thinks these high prices will push consumers to other cuts or even other proteins as this market is getting pretty rich. We’ll watch and see how this goes. In the immediate market we continue to see declines in thin meats, briskets, flanks, and sirloin flap, while chucks are holding steady to move a bit higher. Rounds seems to have found their current bottom, so I’d expect to see that move higher soon. Grinds are showing upside as well. We had 531K head harvested last week, down from 548k the week prior. I do expect we will stay in the 525-540k per week at least for the next few weeks. Stay ahead of your needs; inventories continue to be tight.

POULTRY Chicken pricing is steady to down slightly. Boneless skinless random breasts do have some weakness and lower pricing on the way. Tenders and party wings are steady but at these levels, steady is a pretty good deal. We are coming up on eight billion chickens processed in 2026, showing chicken to be the value in protein.

GRAINS Grains, or I should say just corn, could not hold onto recent increases. Just too much product plus new crop coming in. Today’s close is back under $5 to $4.79. Good news for everyone but farmers. Soy is down marginally – with high diesel and gas prices, soy will continue to have demand in biofuels. The Russian wheat crop was reduced in size, pushing wheat prices higher toward the end of the week.

PORK Pork continues to be a great value in protein. Pork Bellies closed today at $83.33 just up from last week's close of $82.46. Again, anytime bellies are under $100, that is a flashing buy sign to me. Loins are trading about as low as we’ve seen all year, butts and ribs holding steady. Great time to menu pork.

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BEEF Beef harvest rebounded last week up to 548K head, compared to the prior week of 484K head. Still running well behind last year. With continually larger animals being harvested, we are down on weight by 5.2 percent and down by number of animals harvested by 7.5 percent. While we do see signs of herd rebuilding, that relief is well into 2028 before we would see any sizable increases in herd availability. We are heading toward the holiday season; already middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving up every week. Tenderloins are showing strength, too. As is usual with the holidays, I expect strip loins will move up modestly – especially compared the other middle meats, making them a good holiday value. Chucks continue to show strength as well; rounds have been on the decline, but I think we are about at the bottom of that run. Grinds are moving higher. Thin meats, think briskets, flank, sirloin flap, all down again or finding a much lower price point than we’ve seen the past few months. Stay ahead of your needs, inventories are tight.

POULTRY Chicken production continues strong; I do think we will see some minor price declines - don’t expect anything big - but production is outpacing demand right now. We might see a surge in wing pricing, but it will be minor, if it comes at all. As far as avian flu, four new cases affecting 100K birds, mostly turkeys. Over two million turkeys have been culled in 2026 due to avian flu, and we’ve got a couple months to go.

GRAINS Grains overall are holding steady to last week's pricing. Corn closed today at $5.01, last week closed at $5.00, soy today closed at $12.64, last week closed at $12.57, and wheat closed at $6.59, up from last week’s close at $6.33. Still not much to make me think these are poised to move higher. Harvest is ramping up for corn and soy. Biofuels could push these higher, but I think that demand is already baked into the price.

PORK Pork bellies are heading lower still. Today’s close was $82.46 compared to last Thursday at $93.43. This makes it time to buy. Pork continues to be a great protein value, and now with bacon. Loins continue to decline a few pennies; butts and ribs holding steady for now.

DAIRY For the first time since the first week of August, the block market is up. Through Thursday's close the block is up four, barrel has no change, and butter declines another five. I still don’t see anything to push this market; inventories and raw material are plentiful.

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BEEF Last week’s beef harvest was 484K head, seems like a holiday shortened week but it was not. Prior week was 529K head; this is keeping inventories tight. The pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks continues. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving higher still. We are already higher on middle meats than last year’s holiday season, I wonder how high they can push this market as we head to the holiday season. Chucks moving higher with the middle meats, while pretty much the rest of the beef complex continues to decline. Rounds, briskets, flank, all moving lower. I’m staying with my recommendation, stay ahead of your needs and take those declines when you can.

POULTRY Still not much movement in chicken pricing. A penny here and there, but nothing makes me think this market will be moving higher. Chicken production continues strong; demand is not really keeping up. I do expect with beef pricing so high we will see increased demand for chicken, but I don’t see it moving the market higher. Avian flu for the last week sees two new cases affecting 100K birds, mostly turkeys and ducks.

GRAINS USDA's quarterly report last week was a shocker, maybe a bit of sandbagging going on to push prices higher as the quarterly report showed over two billion bushels of corn on hand – about 35 more than last year. Corn has declined this week, closing today at $5.00 down from last week $5.30. With new crop in harvest, I’m not thinking anything will push this market higher. Soy and wheat retreated a bit, nowhere near as much as corn and the August rally in grains is turning into an October slide.

PORK Pork bellies are up from last week, today's close $93.43 – last week we were at $86.91. Anytime bellies are under $100 I take that as a buy. We may see a minor rally over the next couple weeks, but bellies will continue to be a good value; this is the time of year to see these lower markets. Butts, loins, ribs, all steady to down a few cents, pork still a great value in protein.

DAIRY Interesting week in dairy as the block continues to decline down six today. Markets this low are not healthy for the producers, but I don’t see anything to push this market higher. Butter closed today down another two while the barrel is steady to last week. Butter is already lower than all of 2025 so another good year for baking. This is a good buyer's market now and I would expect for at least the next few weeks.

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BEEF We will start with a little good news. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing for live cattle reopened today and so far, no issues. The next border crossing will also be in Columbus, New Mexico; no firm date yet but I’d expect if this opening continues to go well, we should see the next one in about 30 days. We are about to finish September with middle meats, especially ribeyes, leading the way higher. Tenderloins are following up as well. Chucks are showing some strength as chuck rolls are moving higher. Rounds continue to decline and thin meats, led by briskets, continue lower as well. We’ll be in October before you know it. Last week’s beef harvest was 529K head, up from 505 the week prior. Inventories are still very tight. Make sure to stay ahead of your needs and take those price declines as they arrive. Shaping up to be a very interesting market heading toward the holiday season.

POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, about 2 percent above last year. Additional good news: the hatch rate is inching up close to 80 percent, last week 79.7 percent. Chicken pricing is holding steady for another week. I really don’t see anything to push pricing higher, so I do think we’ll see these moderate prices well into October. Avian Flu continues to be an issue; last week we had 4 new cases affecting 140K turkeys.

GRAINS Grain markets are giving back just a bit from the last couple weeks' run up. Corn closed today at $5.30, down from last week‘s $5.42 but still well above that $5 benchmark. Soy and wheat are down similarly. Spring wheat harvest is about done; winter wheat planting continues. Corn and soy harvest have begun, still a bit early but I do think with new crop arriving it will help keep pricing tempered.

PORK Pork bellies closed today at $86.51 just up from last week’s close $85.48. Anytime bellies are below $100 is time to buy. We may see a bit of a rally over the next couple weeks but I’m expecting a softer market for pork well into Q4. Butts, ribs, and loins are all a bit lower for next week as production is picking up with cooler weather.

DAIRY A little of everything on the dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s CME close, the barrel is up 1, first barrel increase since August. The block is down 6 continuing the trend, and butter had no change. Again, not much I see to push this market higher.

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BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along. Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving lower. Thin meats - briskets, flanks, sirloin flap - also finding their pricing inching down. This should continue at least to the end of the month. A little good news, a second port of entry, this one in New Mexico, is scheduled to begin allowing live cattle from Mexico starting next week. I do see heifer retention is increasing with needs to happen so the beef herd can be rebuilt. It is a three-year cycle for a calf to be harvested for beef so while it doesn’t help short term, there is relief ahead, maybe 2028. I’m keeping the same advice, stay ahead of your needs but be aware of pricing opportunities as they emerge.

POULTRY Chicken production was back up over last year by 2 percent, and pricing is steady for next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders, and party wings. We may see some movement higher, but I don’t expect anything to push the market up for any length of time. On the Avian flu front, another three new cases affecting 118K turkeys. I think this will continue as the weather cools and the southern migration has begun for wild birds.

GRAINS Corn closed today at $5.42, up a few pennies from last week. Harvest continues on new crop, but it is very early. Soy leveled off after the last couple weeks pushing higher but I don’t see much to push anything lower. Wheat holds for a second week with all eyes on the Black Sea and unrest there. I don’t see anything to push these markets back down.

PORK Bellies had farther down to go. Today’s close was the third day below $100 with bellies closing at $85.48. That is a big flashing “buy” sign. I was expecting this belly market to settle about $120, so I severely overestimated the demand for fall bellies. Pork production will increase as the weather cools so I’m thinking we could see these low belly prices for a bit. Butts and ribs also move a bit lower; loins are steady but already a great protein value.

DAIRY Dairy is down for the week. Through Thursday’s CME close Barrel is down 5, block and butter both down 4. With plenty of raw material I’m thinking we could see a lower dairy market well into Q4.

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BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are moving down for next week. Grinds down, rounds down, chucks down. I think this should continue to the end of the month, but better values are here. Production dropped last week to 526K head, down from 542K the prior week. This week being a holiday short week will most likely finish below 500K. Even with declining prices, inventories continue to be very tight. I’d stay ahead my needs, but better prices will continue to move this market a bit lower.

POULTRY Chicken production was actually below last year for this past week. I’ve not seen that in a long while. Overall, we are still about 2% ahead of last year but expect that to shrink heading into fall. For next week, wings are getting some push from strong demand, still a good value, but they are moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms and tenderloins steady for another week. On the avian flu front, 4 new cases affecting 72K birds. As the weather begins to cool, we will most likely see these cases increase.

GRAINS Grains are holding onto all their gains from the last couple weeks. Corn continues strong; today’s close $5.36/bushel. The 2026 corn harvest has begun, only 5% complete so far, quality rating is at a crop low 56%, rated good to excellent. Still, plenty of corn to sell. Soy is holding steady with last week; the pricing is volatile based on tensions in the Middle Est and oil pricing. Wheat continues to be affected by Black Sea hostilities as Ukraine and Russia are both attacking shipping infrastructure, making shipments hazardous. Don’t expect much relief on grains right now.

PORK Bellies bounced around this week before declining again, down $1 from last week. Today’s close was $121. This is about where I expect we will be for the next few weeks. Butts are tight but pricing is steady, ribs are actually down a few pennies, and pork loins continue to be a great protein value.

DAIRY Another rather quiet week in dairy markets, still with a tilt downward. As of Thursday’s CME close, barrel is down 3, block down 1, and butter down another 4. I don’t see anything coming to push this market higher.

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BEEF Last week imports of live cattle from Mexico resumed from one port of entry in Arizona. That was “paused” on Tuesday this week for equipment malfunctions. Everyone involved emphasized this is not an animal issue but an equipment issue. They expect to reopen in three days. A second crossing is scheduled to open in New Mexico in three weeks. We are heading to Labor Day weekend. I’ve been saying for weeks we need to get past Labor Day, and this market will see a good market correction lower. I do think we are on schedule to see that happen. Live cattle prices are moving lower; production continues to be tight, 542K head harvested last week, up from 523K the week prior. With next week being a holiday shortened week this slight uptick will hopefully keep sufficient inventory in the pipeline. We will see declines in rounds and chucks; middle meats seem to be holding out for another week or so, but I do expect them to come off current highs as well. Demand for ground beef continues to keep pricing up; we may see relief on ground beef in the next few weeks but right now, not in the cards. I’d stay ahead of my needs, but know better pricing is on the way.

POULTRY We’ve been seeing a gradual slowdown in chicken production over the last few weeks and that trend is continuing. From running a solid 2% over last year to now we are running almost even. I expect we will see this continue; I don’t expect to reduce further but I do think we’ll see this market tighten a bit. For next week coming out of a holiday weekend, boneless skinless randoms and tenders are holding steady another week while wings are down a few pennies. Looking at Avian flu, three new cases affecting 74K turkeys.

GRAINS We’ve been in this bear market for grains it seems like years, but things are getting interesting. Corn closed at $5.40/bushel up from last week’s $5.31 close. This year’s crop estimation is down 4% from last year at 178.7 bushels per acre at 15.8 billion bushels, while soybeans are up to $12.58/bushel and a 2026 crop estimated 7% below last year, 4.5 billion bushels. With demand for biofuels pushing all this higher and international unrest, I do think we’ll see these grain markets continue higher. Wheat is in the same condition with Black Sea exports slowed by shipping terminals being damaged in fighting. I do think this trend will continue.

PORK Did everyone hear that crash today? Today’s pork market close has bellies down $32.13 closing at $121.85. Last week’s close was $148.48. This should continue, though my target for this market was $120. I may have to modify that lower, we’ll see. The ribs and loins are holding steady. Butts are seeing strong demand but not much price movement.

DAIRY A fairly quiet week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close all categories were down a bit; barrel down 3, block is down 3 as well, while butter is down 4. I don’t see much to push this market higher.

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BEEF Let's start with a little good news. On Monday, the border in Arizona was opened for beef cattle. Monday had 716 head presented for inspection. 692 were approved with 24 rejected. Similar numbers on Tuesday with 634 inspected, 588 approved and 46 rejected. Estimated weekly crossing is expected to be about 3,000 head per week. Not enough to make a big change but it is progress. A second crossing will open in New Mexico in 30 days as long as Arizona goes well. The current beef market, however, is high and still moving higher. Weekly beef harvest continues restrained, 523K head last week, up from 517K the week prior. With one more week running up to Labor Day and the end of the summer season, back to school, vacations over, I do think we will see declines in beef pricing. But we’ve got to get there. Middle meats continue to lead the way higher with ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips all strongly moving higher. Chucks and rounds moving up, too. Grinds are moving higher and we’ll wait to see if additional tariff-free imported lean beef will have any effect on pricing. I’d keep the same advice I’ve been saying for a while now. Stay ahead of your needs simply because inventories are tight, but I would not get too far ahead as I do expect a market correction after Labor Day.

POULTRY The recent pattern is done, at least for now. Wings are moving a bit lower, while boneless skinless random breasts and tenders are holding steady for the week. Production continues strong staying ahead of last year which I think should protect us from any surge in chicken moving into fall. On the avian flu beat, four new cases affecting 32K birds.

GRAINS It seems war and international unrest is good for grain prices. Corn closed today at $5.31, the highest close in three years. We flirted with $5 a few months ago; now it's here and we’ll see where this will end. Still plenty of corn and new crop coming in so will demand keep these prices up. Soy and wheat both up similarly to corn. I do expect we will see firming prices in oil and flour.

PORK Pork bellies continue to decline, today’s close $148, down from last week’s $154. I do expect this to continue to decline heading into fall. Loins, butts, ribs, minimal movement.

DAIRY Another mixed week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 1, block declines again, down 5, and butter up 1. Not much to push these markets higher, plenty of raw material available.

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BEEF This beef market is pushing higher still. I’m still expecting a market correction after Labor Day, but man, getting to Labor Day is not going to be cheap. Beef harvest continues in the same quantities we’ve seen for months, 517K head last week, 509K the week prior keeps beef inventories tight. Ribeyes and tenderloins have been leading this charge higher, and I don’t see that changing. Strips are following higher but not near the increases in the rest of the middle meats. Rounds and chucks moving higher, thin meats moving higher, grinds moving higher. Did I hit all of them? With Tyson closing two beef plants and looking to sell another, beef capacity continues to shrink, reducing overhead for our new normal cattle harvest. I’d continue to stay ahead of your needs, but I do think once we get past Labor Day this market will turn.

POULTRY Chicken continues of two minds. Demand is still strong, production continues to outpace last year, but we are slowing that growth a bit. Boneless skinless random breasts and party wings continue higher. On the other hand, tenders continue to decline next week and now represent a value compared to breast meat. I think we’ll see this pattern continue into September. On the avian flu report, no new cases this week, always good to hear.

GRAINS International unrest continues to roil all the grain markets; corn closed at $4.85. About a month ago we were approaching $5/bushel, we may just get there this time. Soy closed up today over $12/bushel and wheat is moving higher as well. Nothing to make me think this bear market will change, but it is good to see some life in these markets.

PORK Pork bellies topped out last week at $166 and today they closed at $154. I do expect there is a lot more downside to bellies. Buy just what you need, better pricing is ahead. Loins, butts, ribs, all with minimal movements, makes pork a great addition to your menu.

DAIRY The CME was pretty quiet this week; through Thursday’s close barrel is up 1 while block is down 3 and butter is down 2. I’m seeing plenty of milk available, I don’t expect much movement into next month.

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BEEF: Last week’s harvest was 59K head. I thought the prior week of 512K was low, so let's take another step down, with packers keeping pressure on availability with less product available. This puts our year-to-date output down 8.1%. A pretty sizeable decline. They seem to be pretty effective, as pricing is moving higher next week; I think we’ll continue on this ramp-up right into Labor Day. After that, I do think we’ll see a reset on many items. Right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are leading the market higher. Chucks and rounds are up a bit; briskets have found support moving higher. We do see some declines in flanks and sirloin flap… and ground beef is down again. I’d continue to stay ahead of your needs, but not too far out; better pricing is coming in September.

POULTRY: Chicken is moving back up. Up for next week: boneless skinless breasts and party wings. Tenders, however, have another week moving lower. Production continues strong, though I do hear we could see some lower production numbers in the last quarter. But right now, chicken is moving out, and there is strong demand. On the avian flu, one new case affecting 75K turkeys. It was a good three-week run.

GRAINS: Black Sea violence is keeping wheat prices moving higher, with two Russian grain terminals hit. Corn is moving up a bit, with the close today at $4.69/bushel, up from last week's $4.51. Soy is trending about the same as last week. I was hoping we’d see continued declines, but it looks like we are at the bottom of this market, at least for now. Grains will continue to be a strength for our domestic market.

PORK: Pork bellies should be about topped out here, with today’s close of $166 up from last week's $164. The next move should be lower; it's just how quickly this decline will go. The rest of the pork complex is moving a few pennies down on butts, loins, and ribs.

DAIRY Another split on the dairy markets, today’s CME close had the barrel down 1, but block ticks up 6. Butter declines 2. I don't see much that should be pushing this market higher, so we’ll see where this goes.

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BEEF: I’m going to start with the weekly beef harvest. Last week’s total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head. I don’t recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week. Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing. They are having some success as Ribeyes and tenderloins are moving higher heading to Labor Day. Overall, though prices are moving lower, we should see some appreciation as we get closer to Labor Day. Grinds and rounds are moving lower; thin meats are mixed as briskets have new support while flanks and sirloin flap continue to decline. I think we’ve got a week, maybe two, before we see this market move higher again. Stay ahead of your needs; product will be tight, but better values will be available.

POULTRY: Chicken market is back to moving a bit higher. Up with Boneless skinless random breast and wings. Tenders still showing some weakness, moving a few pennies lower. This year’s robust chicken production growth is expected to cool off heading into fall, so this market could turn higher, but I’m not seeing anything yet. On the avian flu report, another week, no new cases, and we will take that win every time.

GRAINS: Grains continue to decline from the surge we saw two weeks ago. Corn closed at $4.51, down from last week’s $4.69; soy at $11.53, down from last week's $11.71, and wheat closed at $6.07, down from last week’s $6.30. We are in the height of the growing season for corn and soy, and we do have some drought in parts of the country to deal with, but that is mostly west of the prime growing areas. Still looks like another big crop year.

PORK: Pork bellies, they moved higher again this week, today’s close $164 up from last week’s $159. I do think we are about at the top of this market, just looking to see when we’ll start moving lower. Right now, I’d buy just what I need. Pork loins are up a nickel, ribs and butts holding steady. Once we get past Labor Day, I do expect some declines.

DAIRY: Thursday’s CME close saw both barrel and block decline 2 while butter recovers from the recent declines up 6. We have plenty of raw material for dairy, so I don’t expect too much from this recent run.

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BEEF Let’s start with some really good news. For the first time since 2018 the US cattle herd increased by 200K head to 94.2 million head, this however is not the start of beef herd building we’ve been looking for. The increases are in dairy cows, the beef herd actually declined 200K head to 28.5 million head. I do see some signs of heifer retention with ranchers reserving additional head for breeding. I’m still taking this as a good sign. Additional good news: Our southern border will open to Mexican livestock with one port opening August 24 in Arizona. This entry will probably only be about 3,000 head per week, but we will take the progress. We’ve gone a week with no new New World screw worm cases, so let's keep the momentum going. Onto the current beef market and we continue to move lower finishing July, and I’d expect the early part of August will continue the decline. There is an exception as ribeyes and tenderloins seem to have done their summer declines; while the rest of the market softens, they have some demand behind them to keep from further declines. Declines from last week continue though they are getting smaller, and I do think we’ll see a bottom to this current market in the next couple weeks. Thin meats, rounds and chucks all moving lower, even grinds, which I almost thought invincible to market declines, are moving lower. I’d still stay ahead of your needs but as this market declines there will be opportunities.

POULTRY Chicken market is down for next week. Boneless skinless randoms, tenders and even wings are all moving lower. This strong production we’ve seen all year seems to finally be catching up the producers lowering prices to keep things moving. I thought we’d see a minor increase but we’re going the other way. Makes chicken a great value this summer. On the avian flu beat – two weeks, no new cases. We’ll take that all day long.

GRAINS Last week had all the grain markets moving higher, even corn. Well, that was last week. This week, except for wheat being affected by international unrest and domestic crop stress, corn and soy are moving back down. This week’s corn closed at $4.69 down from last week $4.84. Soy closed $11.71 down from $12.26 last week. Soy oil should move lower over the next couple weeks.

PORK Pork bellies are up again this week, closing today at $159 over last week’s close of $156. While I do think we have a couple more weeks to go, I think we’ve got a week or two more before declining again heading into fall. Right now, it's all moving higher. Bellies are about the only thing pushing higher and pork, butts, ribs and loins, steady to down slightly.

DAIRY The recent run up on the CME for the block and the barrel seems to have run out of steam. Through Thursday's close block is down 8, barrel is down 5 and butter continues lower down 11. Plenty of raw material available and we’re seeing a slowdown heading into August.

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BEEF The beef market is continuing lower this week though I do see some slowing in the declines. Production continues restrained with 525K harvested last week, down from 529k the week prior. We may see even lower production numbers this week and moving into August to try and bolster some of price drops. Middle meats continue to lead the way lower, mainly the strip loin; tenders and ribeyes both lower but not by much. Grinds moved lower a second week, that I am surprised to see. Chucks and rounds are mostly trading sideways with some lower prices but mostly just treading water. Thin meats have more to go but finally are moving lower which was really needed. Overall, the market is soft even with tight inventories. Buy to stay ahead of your needs but no need to stretch too far out.

POULTRY I’ve been talking all year how chicken production is up, and they don’t seem to be holding back, expecting to replace beef on the consumer's table. While demand for wings is pushing pricing up again next week, boneless skinless randoms and tenders are holding steady again for next week. While I do think the next move should be higher, I don’t think it will be more than a few cents up right now. On the avian flu beat, first time in weeks, no new cases reported.

GRAINS International unrest and spikes in oil prices come right into our food sector pushing all our grains higher, even corn. Corn closed at $4.84/bushel up from last week $4.67, soybeans up closing at $12.26 over last week’s $11.95 and wheat closed at $6.83 up from $6.69. We have the inventory to meet demand; pricing will be pushing higher every day.

PORK Pork bellies closed today at $156 up from last week $147. I don’t think this is done at all. Expect to peak sometime in August. Butts, loins, and ribs all moving slightly lower making pork a very attractive protein buy.

DAIRY At the close of today’s CME, block is up 5, barrel is up 3 and butter heads lower another week, down 5. Not sure how long this run up will continue but I don’t expect too much longer.

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BEEF The beef market continues its summer pull back. Overall market tone is moving lower. I expect we will see this through the end of the month; come August we’ll be starting to look at fall demand. Unbelievable, already talking about fall. Last week’s harvest was 529K head, up from the holiday week of 448K. Middle meats are leading prices lower, especially ribeyes and strips, tenderloins are down but not near the movement lower on ribeyes and strips. Grinds are holding steady for a week, but still this is a product with strong demand and pricing will be moving higher. End cuts, rounds and chucks are moving nominally lower; demand isn’t strong this time of year, but restricted production keeps pricing propped up a bit. I’d stay ahead of my needs, but overall pricing is moving lower.

POULTRY The overall feel of the chicken market is demand is stronger than supply. Wings are getting a strong push up next week. Randoms and tenders holding steady, but I do expect their next move will be higher. On the avian flu front, another 275K egg layers removed from the food supply.

GRAINS Soy oil is holding onto all the gains from last week when the market started moving higher. Corn closed up at $4.67 over last week’s $4.48. Wheat moving higher as well. Most of this is reaction to international disruptions, still not ready to say everything is breaking higher but I’m watching.

PORK The pork belly run higher is on, today’s close $147 up from last week’s $132. I expect this late start to the summer belly increase will run well into August. Butts, ribs, and loins are all staying about where they are, keeping pork a good protein value.

DAIRY The CME continued last week's move higher on cheese. Through Thursday’s close block is up 8, barrel is up 4, and butter is down 2. Summer is not usually the time of year we see cheese markets surge higher; we’ll see if this continues.

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BEEF As expected, beef pricing for middle meats is moving lower. Strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all coming off a bit from pre-holiday highs. I expect we will see this continue right to the end of the month. Grinds on the other hand are keeping prices high and will be moving higher. Ground beef is still the value in the beef complex even with advancing prices. Chucks and rounds will be coming off a bit, but don’t expect too much from these primals as far as discounting. Beef production during the holiday shortened week was 458K head down from the prior week’s 537K head and down compared to last year’s holiday when the harvest was 474, keeping beef tight and expensive. Thin meats are a mixed bag; declines in briskets and sirloin flap while flank still has support pushing higher. With inventories tight, I’d recommend staying ahead of your needs, but you will see better pricing over the next few weeks.

POULTRY We’ll start talking about poultry with avian flu. Our good run has come to an end. Only one case reported, but it is 1.2 million egg layers in Utah removed from the food supply. Talking about current chicken market, wings are on fire moving up strongly for next week. Randoms and tenders are holding steady at least for next week. Production continues strong but demand is pushing this market. I don’t expect chicken to take a big run up we should see a pretty steady market through the summer.

GRAINS China is back to purchasing soybeans after the protracted tariff disruption, booking 132K metric tons with commitment to purchase 25M metric tons through 2028. Shooting started again with Iran; both those events turned a promising decline in soy oil right around with prices inching higher every day. Corn closed up at $4.48/bushel over last week’s $4.31 close. Wheat is up across the board too. Though we have so much corn we’ll not see much effect from this latest move higher, wheat could push flour pricing up. Right now, the action is in soy.

PORK Pork bellies finally showing some direction closing at $132 up from last week's $119. We’ll keep watching to see if this is an event or a trend, I’m betting trend, but I’ve been fooled a couple times this year, so let's see it play out. If this is the expected belly summer climb, now it when to buy bacon. Butts and ribs holding steady and a good value, loins actually moving a few cents lower makes a great value in protein.

DAIRY The CME closed today with the block up 8, the barrel up 4 and butter moving down 2. This is the most active we’ve seen this trade in quite a while.

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BEEF Beef production last week was 537K head, up from 526K the week prior. We are still in that zone of keeping supplies tight to keep pricing up. The animals that are processed have been in the feed lots longer, growing larger; current cattle are running almost 50 pounds heavier than this week last year. This trend will continue. We are at the big summer holiday. I do expect beef prices to settle once we get past Independence Day and a short production week. I do expect grinds to lead the beef complex this summer; demand will be strong and pricing will be supported by that demand. Another week and let's see if the middle meats will behave like they should in summer and move a bit lower. Thin meats, briskets, sirloin flap, skirts will be the wild card as it takes a lot of animals to fill one case; tight supplies just keep pressure on the pricing, but we could see some reset on thin meats if demand does not hold. All in all, stay ahead of your needs, but I wouldn’t go too far out as I do think we’ll see more favorable prices in the next few weeks.

POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year, but I do think we’ll see a bit of a slowdown in production, not a pullback, but we’ve been running about 2% ahead of last year and I’m seeing some pullback to about 1% over last year. Enough to get some push under the market to keep prices supported. Wings are seeing good support and moving higher next week. Boneless skinless randoms up again next week, while tenders are lower again. A few weeks ago, tenders were well over the cost of random breasts; next week that flips as tenders decline and random breasts increase. Still, plenty of chicken and favorable pricing.

GRAINS Corn continues in its narrow trading ban closing at $4.31 up from last week $4.19. We are finally seeing breaks in soy oil pricing; lower prices should be arriving in the next couple weeks to break this recent run up. Wheat is a mixed bag but mostly lower.

PORK The great summer of the pork belly continues, closing today at $119. Up $3 from last week but still great pricing for this time of year. Butts, ribs and loins are all down a bit again as pork is ready to replace beef demand, but consumers have made the choice for chicken. Still pork is there and an excellent protein value.

DAIRY Barrel and block both took the holiday off both moving less than ½ cent for the week, while butter took to moving higher, up 13 for the week. Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3.

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BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right into August. There is some data to suggest ground beef is hitting a bit of a ceiling for customer acceptance. I do think we will push past that resistance, but it will be slowly inching higher; if consumer push back is strong enough, we could see grinds settle out where they are. We’ll keep watching but in my opinion we will see moderate increases continue into August. With production last week only 526K head just up from 524K the week prior, inventories will continue to be tight. Stay ahead of your needs. Looking at New World Screw worm, eight new cases, one sheep, one goat, and six head of cattle. Expect the southern border to remain closed to live animal imports through the rest of this year, and most likely well into 2027.

POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, they are not letting up. Demand for boneless skinless random breasts and party wings are moving prices higher next week. Tenders which were out of line with randoms just a few weeks ago have declined to be comparable in costs. Good to keep pushing out that chicken. On the Avian Flu beat, one new case affecting 3K birds.

GRAINS Overall grains are moving lower especially soy oil. Finally breaking lower from the recent highs. I don’t think we will return to the low markets of early this year, but pricing is coming off. Wheat closed at $4.19 down from last week’s $4.30. Wheat closed at $5.84 down from last week’s $6.11. I do expect to see lower grain costs continue as long as we don’t have a major disruption.

PORK Pricing on pork bellies declined again this week, closing today at $116 down from last week’s $118. This is not an expecting market level for early summer. I’ll keep buying bacon at this level, and you should too. Butts are coming off again next week and loins moved up a few pennies but still offer a great value in protein.

DAIRY And a split decision on dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 3, while block is down 4 and butter continues lower down 6 for the week. Dairy markets are at good levels for buying now. We’ll keep watching.

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BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the foreseeable future.

Beef production was 533K head last week, up from the holiday shortened prior week of 448K. This keeps inventories tight and product prices pushing higher. Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips are finding support to continue moving higher. Chucks and rounds are holding steady for now though they are not big demand items in the summer. Ground beef is the big demand item and it's moving higher every day. Briskets and sirloin flap are moving lower, but I don’t think we’ll see this for long. It’s a market where I’d make sure I stay ahead of my needs and keep inventory on hand. This market is moving higher.

POULTRY The declining chicken market is done. Pricing will be moving higher next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings. Compared to other proteins, still a great value but the declines of the last month are done. Chicken production continues strong up about 2% over last year. There is plenty of chicken in production. On the avian flu report, only three new cases affecting 20K birds. The summer is looking good for avian flu.

GRAINS Corn continues to be a great value closing at $4.25/bushel today, that’s down from $4.39 last week. Soy has pulled back a bit from the highs we saw last week, but I would not be surprised if they go on another run. High fuel prices put soy in play with biofuels, that is not over. Wheat is moving lower; I do think we’ll see lower flour costs soon.

PORK Pork bellies holding steady for the week, closing today at $120, about the same as last week. This will be moving higher soon, but it is a great price right now. Butts were on a tear higher, but they seem to have leveled off, we may see some better pricing shortly. Ribs are about as high as expected to see them this year. Loins continue to be the value in pork.

DAIRY CME Limited moves on the CME this week, thru Thursday’s close, butter is down 2, block is up 1, and barrel is up 2. Let's look for a quiet market at least the next couple weeks.

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