Podcast

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Business, Business News, Investing, News

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

Investing chart
#78
Episodes
321
Releases
Twice a week
Typical length
1 hr 8 min
On air since
2024
Latest episode
1 day ago

Episodes

321 episodes, newest first

  1. Preparing For 2027 Inflection in Global Liquidity | Michael Howell’s Bull Case For Bonds and Tepid View of Liquidity-Sensitive Assets

    Show notes

    20% discount to annual subscription of Michael Howell’s Substack, “Capital Wars”:

    https://capitalwars.substack.com/MonetaryMatters

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    The AI build-out is draining liquidity. Hyperscalers need close to $1 trillion of debt a year for the next two years, with equity issuance right behind, and roughly 80% of AI funding now comes from markets rather than cash flow.

    Michael Howell explains why transformative-technology booms usually end in recessions or financial crises, why the global liquidity cycle has already turned, and what that means for stocks, bonds, Bitcoin and gold heading into 2027. Recorded October 29, 2026.

    Follow Michael Howell on X https://x.com/crossbordercap

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 29 min
  2. The Fed Has AI’s Back | Dan Krausz on “Liquidity Trap Door” In AI Infrastructure and Why Policymakers Are Inclined to Support Financial Conditions

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Dan Kraus of Blue Door Asset Management argues that the AI sell-off isn’t about AI fundamentals but about liquidity. As the buildout shifted from hyperscaler cash to market financing, it began competing with Treasuries for capital, so weaker credits like CoreWeave get hit first when liquidity tightens. In his words, “when liquidity weakens, time frames shorten”: concerns that were 18 months out suddenly get priced today. He explains why he expects policymakers to put “trampolines” under the trapdoor. With Bessent calling the AI race crucial and Warsh calling AI disinflationary, hiking rates to kill the buildout would be inconsistent, and some major investors have even floated a “Fannie Mae for AI.” We break down Warsh’s October press conference, why it matters that he didn’t call the economy overheating the way Greenspan did in 1999, and why Dan expects growth and the consumer to slow in 2027. Dan also explains why the rally in AI-disrupted stocks looks like a short squeeze rather than a comeback, why AI may become table stakes rather than a lasting margin boost, and the four warning signs that deficits have turned negative for equities (none are flashing yet).

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 17 min
  3. Why Compute Prices Are Still Rising | Steve Hou of Silicon Data on GPU Rental Indices, Fed Meeting, and Anthropic S-1 (LIVE)

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Steve Hou of Silicon Data joins Monetary Matters on the day the Fed held rates with two hawkish dissents, Alphabet and Microsoft reported earnings, and two days after Anthropic’s S-1 filing. Silicon Data publishes the GPU rental indices behind CME’s planned compute futures. We discuss why renting an Nvidia H100 costs about 45% more than it did in December, why transaction prices and asking prices have diverged, and whether the forward curve says GPU rents keep rising. We also cover the “crunch spread” between rising GPU costs and falling token prices, what Anthropic’s S-1 reveals about the economics of frontier AI labs, what [Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s capex guidance] means for future compute supply, and how higher interest rates feed into the cost of AI infrastructure. Topics: The 2026 GPU price spike, and why older chips got more expensive Silicon Data vs. Ornn: asking prices vs. transacted prices Compute futures: the CME delay, contango vs. backwardation, and who hedges Token pricing and the crunch spread Anthropic’s S-1: contracted compute vs. spot prices Alphabet and Microsoft capex, and what it means for GPU supply The Fed’s hawkish hold, and rates as a cost of compute Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/ Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 4 min
  4. The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, breaks down why a broader equity bear market may already be underway beneath surface-level index strength. Deluard unpacks the approaching stagflationary squeeze, driven by persistent wage pressures, slowing fiscal subsidies, and a looming political gridlock that strips away both monetary and fiscal safety nets. He outlines a tactical rotation out of equities and into long-term Treasuries over the next six months, capitalizing on year-end liquidity, pension fund rebalancing, and debt ceiling constraints. Finally, the conversation looks abroad to the escalating fiscal spiral in France and the broader structural crisis facing the Eurozone, mapping out why currency devaluation or fragmentation may be inevitable.

    Follow Vincent on X: https://x.com/VincentDeluard

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:

    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

    Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

    YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

    X https://x.com/opmpod

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.

    ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:03 Bear Market Call

    02:58 Why Treasuries Now

    07:12 Secular Inflation View

    08:46 AI Bubble and Taxes

    11:38 Fiscal Boost to Margins

    14:55 Sarmaya LENS ETF

    16:22 Fed Stagflation Trap

    24:53 Oil Shock Tail Risk

    29:24 France Debt Spiral

    34:55 Euro Devaluation Fix

    40:07 Weak Euro Politics

    43:53 Euro Designed for Crisis

    48:34 ECB Tightening and Succession

    52:33 Brazil Election Shock and Flows

    56:12 Brazil Terms of Trade Tailwinds

    1 hr 8 min
  5. Citrini: Monkeys Are The Next Bottleneck | Citrini on AI Drug Discovery Experiment & Reflexive Financing Risk to AI Buildout & Hardware Trade

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Citrini teamed up with Anthropic and used Claude to design scorpion antivenom candidates in just 64 hours, and 17 of them bound in the lab. The experiment led him to a striking conclusion: AI is commoditizing drug design, and the real bottleneck is now experiments, and monkeys. We get into what AI can and can’t speed up in drug discovery, why he’s bullish on the companies that run experiments, and why a monkey shortage may be the most important constraint in preclinical testing. Then we turn to AI hardware: Citrini was one of the earliest and loudest bulls on the trade, and today he’s light on it, even short some of it. He explains why he rotated out of semis, what lab revenue needs to look like to justify today’s spending, and what would bring him back. We also cover CoreWeave, DeepSeek’s reported 80% margins, his long-Meta, short-Google trade, the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis piece, and homebuilders. Recorded evening of October 21, 2026.Follow Citrini on X https://x.com/citrini

    CItrini Research Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/

    “Citrini Therapeutics: We Wanted to Use Claude to Create a New Drug. Here’s What Happened.”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrini-therapeutics

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 27 min
  6. "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros"

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    George Noble, the former Fidelity portfolio manager who ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund and started his career working for Peter Lynch, returns to Monetary Matters to argue that AI is a bubble and the bill is coming due. George explains why he thinks hyperscaler depreciation could exceed $500 billion a year by 2030, enough to wipe out the profits of the companies spending it, and why he calls AI “shale”: a capex arms race that no one can afford to stop. He lays out why he’s short CoreWeave, Tesla, and SpaceX, which he calls a cash-flow-negative AI play with a rocket company attached, and why he believes CoreWeave and many of the neoclouds are zeros short of a bailout. Jack pushes back on Micron’s margins, Elon’s execution, and whether the market has already priced in the risk. George also covers why rising cost of capital is the trigger, why he’s long gold and energy, and why he thinks we’re in “the beginnings of the awakening phase.” It’s a wide-ranging, combative conversation from one of the market’s most vocal AI bears. Recorded October 21, 2026. TO BE CLEAR EXACT QUOTE WAS “SHORT OF A BAILOUT I AM HIGHLY CONFIDENT COREWEAVE IS A ZERO.”

    Follow George Noble on X https://x.com/gnoble79

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    George Noble’s Substack, “The Noble Update”: https://substack.com/@georgenoble/posts

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Learn More about Sarmaya LENS

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    1 hr 45 min
  7. Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world. From there, the conversation turns to semiconductors and whether chip stocks are pricing in a slowdown or still running on hype. Along the way, they look at where the risks are building, who’s most exposed if AI spending cools, and how investors can position for both outcomes. Whether you’re long the AI trade, short it, or somewhere in between, this episode is for you. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    59 min
  8. Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive.

    Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally. He makes the case that inflation is stuck at 3% because the era of cheap Chinese goods is over, and explains why oil is already effectively $200 a barrel once you count tanker costs and naval security in the Strait of Hormuz. He also covers why diesel shows up in the price of everything, and why Kevin Warsh scrapping forward guidance has left markets feeling around in the dark.

    On credit, Jim explains why the blowout in CCC bonds, CoreWeave included, is a handful of problem kids in detention rather than a canary in the coal mine. On AI, he argues it’s 1997, not 2000, and that the bigger risk may be that AI works.

    Follow Jim on X: @biancoresearch

    Bianco Research: http://biancoadvisors.com

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Learn More about LENS Sarmaya ETF

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    1 hr 16 min
  9. The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMO

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply. He also outlines how this equity supply in conjunction with a slowdown in the AI buildout from realizations of an AI overbuild could send the stock market down as much as 50% with even greater pain for the most AI linked companies.

    Read GMO’s Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2026/gmo-quarterly-letter_3q-2026.pdf

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:

    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

    Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

    YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

    X https://x.com/opmpod

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.

    ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:10 AI Bubble Setup

    06:12 Equity Supply Matters More

    10:44 IPO Wave Math

    15:32 Sarmaya LENS ETF

    16:59 Dotcom Fiber Parallel

    20:32 Finding Non-AI Bets

    24:06 Passive Flows and Liquidity

    29:40 Credit Risks and Spillovers

    37:51 Can Government Backstop AI?

    41:48 Credit Stress Check

    45:36 Energy Portfolio Benefits

    48:13 Value Versus Growth Spreads

    50:10 Ex-US AI Winners

    54:34 Big Tech Commoditizes Compute

    57:00 What If Mega Caps Go Sideways?

    01:01:53 Memory: Cyclical Peak Earnings Trap

    01:05:09 The Major Crash Scenario

    01:10:44 Conclusion

    1 hr 12 min
  10. Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions.

    Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:

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    X https://x.com/opmpod

    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns.

    ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:00 Are We in a Bubble?

    04:14 Rates Growth and Bonds

    07:04 Value Investing Reframed

    09:37 Micron Peak Earnings Debate

    11:20 Intel Foundry

    15:24 Sarmaya LENS ETF

    16:52 Sizing Themes and Diversifying

    18:41 Undervalued Challengers: Lyft & Instacart

    29:10 Energy Sector Setup

    35:40 Portfolio Construction & Shorts

    37:47 Shorting Texas Pacific Land Trust

    41:24 Royalty Trusts and Mesabi

    47:16 Retail Shorts: Casey’s & Grocers

    52:43 AI Industrials, Quantum, & Aerospace

    55:37 Offshore Wind and Conclusion

    57 min
  11. Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet. Fresh off his annual Silicon Valley roadshow, Stacy says demand is "off the charts," nobody has enough compute, and the real constraints are land, power, and clean rooms rather than customer appetite. He explains why Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged the "bottleneck" trades in memory, optics, and power, and why both could trade at 11–12x earnings if their growth targets hold. The conversation covers the HBM-driven memory squeeze, his path to $300 billion-plus in wafer fab equipment spending, and why he leans toward Applied Materials in semicap. Stacy also explains why he doesn't hate Intel for the first time in his career, why traditional cycle indicators may no longer work, and how today's AI buildout differs from the dot-com bubble. Recorded October 5, 2026.

    Stacy Rasgon on X https://x.com/Srasgon

    Stacy Rasgon on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/stacy-rasgon-6924963/

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

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    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    51 min
  12. The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) and TORM (TRMD) as the quality names, and explaining why product tankers may finally be catching up. We also cover the aging dark fleet, a potential US diesel export ban, and why J sees dry bulk as the most attractive segment in shipping today, with CMB Tech (CMBT) as his top pick and China's push into Guinean iron ore as a major tailwind. Recorded September 30, 2026.

    J Mintzmyer on X https://x.com/mintzmyer

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Pieces Discussed:

    “CMB.TECH: Updates From Our Top Shipping Pick Of 2026”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4944783-cmbtech-updates-from-our-top-shipping-pick-of-2026?gt=e5bc41646f6cc54e

    “Dry Bulk Shipping Momentum Poised To Continue”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946334-dry-bulk-shipping-momentum-poised-to-continue?gt=b81339756f928160

    “Here's What Happens To Shipping When The Strait of Hormuz Reopens”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949498-heres-what-happens-to-shipping-when-strait-of-hormuz-reopens

    Value Investor’s Edge: https://www.vieresearch.com/

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 1 min
  13. Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk

    Show notes

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

    https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026.

    Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Pieces Discussed:

    “Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

    “Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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    Important Information

    The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

    investing.

    There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

    An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

    Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

    Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

    Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

    The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    1 hr 22 min
  14. Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA

    Show notes

    Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026.

    “Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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    BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/

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    1 hr 15 min
  15. The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC

    Show notes

    James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.

    Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login

    Follow James on X: https://x.com/jameselbaor

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    X https://x.com/opmpod

    JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue

    07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A

    15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers

    16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus

    18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity

    24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers

    29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap

    34:46 Why Interval Funds List

    39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset

    43:33 Permanent Capital Explained

    50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity

    54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity

    01:04:17 Conclusion

    1 hr 5 min
  16. Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy

    Show notes

    Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026.

    “Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/

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    56 min
  17. Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group

    Show notes

    Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

    Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login

    Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein

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    JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer

    02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields

    05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate

    07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks

    08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility

    11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom

    14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes

    17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break

    18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending

    20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag

    23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup

    25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?

    26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention

    31:20 Korea Silicon Boom

    35:43 Europe Under Pressure

    39:25 Middle East Outlook

    43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices

    48:34 China Oil Strategy

    52:10 Big Calls Wrap

    53 min
  18. Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion

    Show notes

    Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login

    Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.

    Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/

    Follow Aurelion Research on X: https://x.com/AurelionRsch

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:

    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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    X https://x.com/opmpod

    JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K

    05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates

    09:24 Portfolio Positioning

    12:28 Managing Miner Cycles

    16:26 Plutus

    18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer

    20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories

    33:23 Royalties as Exposure

    36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies

    42:48 Why Uranium Now

    46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply

    51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout

    54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era

    01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks

    01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap

    01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow

    1 hr 12 min
  19. Why The 30-Year Treasury Lost Its Biggest Buyers | David Busch on Why High Yields Are Attractive Right Now

    Show notes

    Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield regimes.

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

    About David Busch https://trajanwealth.com/leadership/

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    1 hr 8 min
  20. Hawks Take Flight | Joseph Wang on Fed’s Hawkish Hike and Warsh’s Gameplan

    Show notes

    This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/

    Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond convexity versus the rate sensitivity of the AI and neocloud buildout, and why Max thinks estimates for names like Lam Research are far too low. A wide-ranging live reaction spanning the Fed's hardest decision in years and the market's response. Recorded September 16, 2026.

    Follow Joseph Wang on X https://x.com/josephwang

    Follow Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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    1 hr 4 min