Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

A low-key Budget has done little to change the big questions hanging over the U.K. economy. Gaurav, David and Andrew unpack the Chancellor’s cautious fiscal plans and ask how much room the government really has to respond to future shocks. They also discuss the surprising strength of the U.K.’s recent growth figures and signs that the AI boom may be providing an unexpected boost, even in the face of mounting pressure from surging energy prices, inflation and interest rates. With signs of strain already emerging and the Bank of England set to tighten policy next week, can the economy’s unexpected resilience last?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Kamil are joined by Paolo Pasimeni, Chief Economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, to examine Europe’s productivity challenge and what it will take to close the gap with the U.S. and China. Europe has considerable strengths in science and research, but struggles to translate them into innovation and investment at scale. The team explores why, looking at fragmented capital markets, the role of public and private investment, and Europe’s position in the global AI race. They also ask whether technological dependencies are becoming a strategic vulnerability and why boosting productivity increasingly matters not just for prosperity, but for Europe’s economic resilience and geopolitical influence.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Elections are supposed to provide choices. But what happens when they produce political deadlock just as governments need to make increasingly difficult economic decisions?
Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Colin Ellis, Barbara Teixeira Araujo and Kamil Kovar to unpack Europe’s increasingly complicated political economy. From France’s deteriorating fiscal outlook and the rise of parties outside the political centre to misinformation, higher bond yields and Europe’s huge investment needs, the team asks whether the continent has the political capacity to tackle its biggest economic challenges.
And if governments cannot act before markets do, could the ECB once again find itself as Europe’s ultimate backstop?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Could El Niño deliver the next inflation shock? In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav Ganguly is joined by Kamil Kovar, Denise Cheok, Jeemin Bang and Deni Kasa to examine how a potentially powerful El Niño could affect food prices, inflation and monetary policy across Asia Pacific and Europe.
The team explores the risks to rice and other key commodities, the potential for drought and water scarcity to disrupt food and energy production, and how export restrictions could amplify price pressures across borders. They also ask why Europe, historically relatively insulated from El Niño, may be more vulnerable this time as weather disruption intersects with higher energy and fertilizer costs, geopolitical tensions and increasingly fragmented global supply chains.
With some Asian central banks already alert to the inflation risks, could El Niño become another in a series of overlapping supply shocks, keeping inflation higher and interest rates elevated for longer?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Surging government bond yields continue to raise alarm across the global economy. Gaurav, Andrew and Kamil unpack the latest sell-off in global bond markets and assess the relative importance of inflation fears, fiscal concerns and changing expectations for short-term interest rates. They explore the ongoing fallout from the Iran conflict, the prospect of further rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of England, and why investors increasingly seem to believe rates could settle at a higher level than before. Despite the volatility, the team concludes that bond markets may be sending a surprisingly reassuring message about both central bank credibility and the resilience of the global economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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In this episode of The Global Economy Unwrapped, Stefan and Denise join Gaurav to unpack two big stories. First, they examine the much-anticipated Trump-Xi summit, concluding that while the optics were carefully choreographed, the outcome was largely a continuation of the existing US-China stalemate on trade, technology, Taiwan and AI. The discussion explores why stability may be the best either side can hope for.
The conversation then turns to the Middle East, where higher oil prices, disrupted shipping routes and continuing regional tensions are creating growing challenges for the world economy. The team discusses energy security, inflation risks, China's changing role in global oil demand, and the resilience of Gulf economies despite ongoing instability. Along the way, there is also time for pandas, shark-infested beaches, and a healthy dose of "panda-monium".

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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With the U.K. continuing to confound expectations, Gaurav is joined by David and Andrew to assess a run of surprisingly resilient growth data and ask whether the economy is finally breaking out of its recent pattern of strong starts to the year followed by weak finishes. Consumer spending and business investment have both held up well, but rising energy prices, a soft labour market and slowing real wage growth still pose threats. The team debates the inflation outlook, whether markets have become too hawkish on Bank of England rate hikes, and whether another round of tax hikes is looming in October’s budget.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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The European economy refuses to cooperate with the pessimists. Despite conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and persistent uncertainty, euro zone growth has remained surprisingly solid with consumers proving resilient despite another blow to their purchasing power. Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew and Kamil discuss if the good news is sustainable, what is driving the recovery in sentiment, and whether weakness in investment remains a concern. After another debate over Ireland’s outsized influence on the euro zone GDP figures, and how the U.K. fits into the picture, the conversation turns to inflation, rising interest rates and whether Europe risks being left behind as the AI boom gathers pace elsewhere.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Gaurav, Stefan and Denise take the temperature of the Asia-Pacific economy, where the AI boom keeps powering ahead and Taiwan's exports have overtaken Japan's for the first time. The team digs into what's driving the region's K-shaped split, with chip-heavy economies like Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia posting growth north of 5% even as wages stay soft, consumers hold back, and other sectors languish. They ask whether the boom is genuinely productive or just papers over the cracks, drawing uneasy parallels with Dutch disease and tulip mania as fears of an AI bubble grow. From weak currencies, to the 'RAMpocalypse' memory shortage that makes everyday electronics pricier, to a jump in inflation, a fresh wave of rate hikes and the rising threat from climate shocks, they weigh whether Asia's growth is on solid ground or simply hides the strain beneath.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode of Global Economy Unwrapped, the GEU team tours the world, looking at risks. The global economy continues to hold up despite a number of large shocks and potential problems, so have markets become inured to geopolitical risk? The team discusses the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent trade tensions, cracks in the AI boom, rising yields, and the potential for monetary policy missteps. They conclude that the global economy looks surprisingly good, but the risks are far from trivial.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Europeans may be gloomy about the economy, but they're still packing their bags. In this episode of Meet the Experts, Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo are joined by Olia Kuranova and Jessica Demel to unpack the surprising resilience of European tourism. Why are holidays proving "non-negotiable" despite weak consumer confidence, inflation and geopolitical tensions? And how are heatwaves, wildfires and climate change beginning to reshape where, when and how Europeans travel? From revenge tourism to overtourism, and from beach holidays to climate adaptation, this episode explores the forces driving European tourism and the challenges that could redefine it.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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How resilient is commercial real estate in a world of geopolitical shocks, shifting work patterns, and rapid advances in AI? Dominic Brown, Head of International Research at Cushman & Wakefield joins GEU for a wide-ranging discussion on the forces reshaping global property markets. From booming office demand in India and ultra-tight vacancy rates in Tokyo to the divergent fortunes of cities, sectors, and countries, the conversation explores why real estate has become more local, more granular, and more varied than ever. The episode also tackles AI's impact on office space, the race to build data centres, and whether automation will shrink workplaces or transform them. Along the way, Dominic explains how investors identify opportunities across global markets and why macroeconomics still matters, even in an increasingly fragmented world.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew take stock of the recent macroeconomic data for the euro zone. They talk about growth coming slightly above expectations, and why the data haven't really shown any impact from the Iran conflict. They conclude that while the exact number was a slight upside surprise relative to the forecast, it was in line with the broader macroeconomic narrative. They then turn to inflation, where data mostly came in line with expectations, but weather and energy markets are providing new headwinds. They conclude with a discussion of expectations for the European Central Bank and Bank of England for the rest of this year.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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A new prime minister in Downing Street, renewed conflict between the US and Iran, volatile oil markets and another round of US tariffs: it has been an eventful few weeks for the global economy. Andrew Hunter, Denise Cheok and Suren Vardanyan join Gaurav to assess whether Andy Burnham’s plans for devolution, investment and tax reform can lift the UK’s weak growth prospects. The discussion then turns to the Strait of Hormuz, the fragile flow of Gulf oil and a controversial proposal for voluntary transit payments to Iran. Finally, the team examines the latest US trade measures and the risk of further tariff escalation. The world looks marginally riskier—but economies, particularly in Europe, continue to show a resistance to recession.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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GEU calls on its experts to examine the forces shaping Asia’s economic outlook. China specialist Sarah Tan and APAC central bank watcher John Bromhead join Gaurav and Denise to discuss the region’s latest challenges.

The team begins by reminding listeners that energy security remains a critical issue across Asia before turning to China’s slowing economy. They then explore how central banks have responded to the inflation shock of recent months, before examining the surprising turbulence in South Korea’s financial markets, where a sharp stock market correction and currency weakness appear at odds with a strong economy and a healthy current account surplus.

Meet the Experts—a series within a series—moves swiftly from Beijing to Bangkok and from Seoul to Singapore, unpacking the economic stories shaping the region today.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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Gaurav, Stefan, and Denise sit down with Dong He, Chief Economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, for a wide-ranging look at Asia's economic outlook. With the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. on shaky ground and the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, the conversation weighs up growth, inflation and energy security across the region. Dong He also shares AMRO's take on the artificial intelligence boom, central banks' next moves and where ASEAN's integration story heads next, from trade agreements to the region's digital ambitions. Along the way, the team discovers why the humble taxi app might be the best advert for the region's cashless future.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Europe has built a digital architecture that is heavily reliant on the U.S. and China. It depends heavily on the former for software, cloud services, artificial intelligence and online platforms, while relying on the latter for the hardware, components and critical minerals beneath them. Two dependencies, very different in nature, both creating vulnerabilities that are difficult to unwind.

In this episode, Gaurav, Andrew and Barbara explore how Europe became so exposed, and why what once looked like ordinary commercial reliance is now seen as a strategic vulnerability. They discuss Europe's response through regulation, industrial ambition and investment in home-grown capacity, and ask whether it can meaningfully reduce its reliance on others.

They also turn to the geopolitics: what if technology becomes a bargaining chip? Could Europe be squeezed from both sides at once? And is true independence even possible, or is resilience a more realistic goal?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

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With crude oil prices continuing to fall as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, Gaurav is joined by Barbara and Andrew to assess whether Europe is finally turning a corner. The euro zone inflation data raise hopes that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us, but the team warn of lingering risks from gas markets and delayed price pass-through still to come. The downside risks to growth have eased, but a subdued outlook persists amid growing doubts over the prospects of a consumer-led rebound. The discussion moves across the English Channel where, 10 years on from the Brexit referendum, the U.K. awaits the arrival of yet another prime minister.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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Gaurav, Stefan and Denise turn their attention back to Asia-Pacific after months dominated by the Middle East conflict. With signs that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to resume, the team weighs whether the worst is over and the shock to the region's economies may yet prove transitory. They also dig into the K-shaped nature of Asian growth, where the AI boom is delivering blockbuster GDP numbers for tech-heavy economies like Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, even as consumers struggle with elevated energy and food costs. From China's stubborn reluctance to fire a domestic demand bazooka to the limits of decoupling in a world stitched together by rare earths and supply chains, the team asks whether Asia's growth story is built on strong foundations, or just very good at papering over the cracks.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, and Andrew are joined by Andrea Montanino, Chief Economist at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Italy, and former Executive Director at the IMF, to explore the profound transformations reshaping Europe’s economy. Framed around four key pillars—demographics, geopolitics, energy, and technology—the discussion examines the structural forces weighing on Europe’s growth and competitiveness.

As the global landscape becomes more fragmented, Andrea argues that “the world is no longer a supermarket”—with firms forced to weigh resilience, diversification, and supply chain risks alongside costs. The team also explores Europe’s trade strategy in a shifting order, its energy security following recent shocks, the potential of deeper ties with Africa, and the challenge of channeling abundant savings into productive investment.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

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