NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 4th November 2026

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NAB’s Taylor Nugent assesses the fallout from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Melbourne Cup Day decision, where the Board delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase to lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Despite the rate rise, domestic bond yields and the Australian dollar both declined—with the Aussie dipping back below 70 US cents—as markets seized on a dovish 6–3 split vote and a subtle softening in the RBA’s forward guidance, reinforcing NAB’s view that the central bank’s tightening cycle is now done and dusted. On Wall Street, tech equities mounted a modest recovery following recent steep losses, led by a bounce in semiconductor makers like Nvidia and AMD, though Apple slipped 1.8% despite beating quarterly revenue estimates. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped further—with Brent sliding toward US$103 a barrel—and US JOLTS data pointed to renewed labour mobility with a pickup in job openings and quits. Across the Pacific, all eyes now turn to the counting of the US midterm elections as polls close across the East Coast, with markets alert to the prospect of divided government in Washington.

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Tuesday 3rd November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, where markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point cash rate increase following last week’s sticky Q3 trimmed mean inflation print, even as building approvals data highlights mounting headwinds across the residential construction sector. Meanwhile, political focus intensifies around the US midterm elections, with polling pointing to an altered legislative landscape in Washington.

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Monday 2ns November 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday’s tech rout and tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup rate rise from the RBA. Ahead of the decision, new data from Cotality shows capital city dwelling values fell 1.4% in October—accelerating across previously heated property markets like Brisbane and Perth as cyclical rate pressures intersect with federal property tax reforms. Globally, markets digest the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause, softer official Chinese manufacturing PMIs, widening French sovereign bond spreads, and the looming risk of the upcoming US midterms alongside central bank rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Riksbank.

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Friday 30th October 2026

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Phil speaks with Paul Mortimer-Lee, Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and former Bank of England forecasting head, to examine the deepening fiscal strain across Europe and determine whether France or the UK is in a more dangerous position. Paul argues that France is caught in a structural spending trap—with government outlays at an eye-watering 57% of GDP and political fragmentation making deficit reduction nearly impossible—leaving markets to rely on the moral hazard of an eventual European Central Bank intervention, even if its untested Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) faces legal and political hurdles. By contrast, while the UK’s Autumn Budget deferred meaningful consolidation via a "flotilla of small measures" amid rising debt-servicing costs and overambitious welfare dependency, London’s independent currency and floating exchange rate mean market discipline bites faster, whereas France lacks an exchange rate valve to offset its competitiveness gap against the rest of Europe. With Germany’s constitutional debt brake hampering broader continental growth and bond markets demanding higher risk premiums, Paul reckons that French 10-year yields could surge another 100 basis points and provoke banking contagion before European policymakers reluctantly to step in. But beyond that, does this point to an instability that the Euro - or the ECB – can’t survive?

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Thursday 29th October 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Gavin Friend explore a risk-off session across equity markets triggered by a fresh wave of artificial intelligence anxiety following Alphabet’s quarterly earnings. Alphabet tumbled nearly 13%—marking one of the largest single-day market-cap wipeouts on record—as investors grew alarmed by ballooning AI capital expenditure running alongside signs that conversational AI search tools are beginning to cannibalise its core advertising revenue. The resulting tech sell-off pulled the Nasdaq down 1.5% and overshadowed otherwise robust US macroeconomic data, which saw Q3 GDP beat expectations at an annualised 3.4% and personal consumption rise 3.8% despite core PCE edging up to 3.1%. In Europe, the ECB held its policy rates steady as expected, but Christine Lagarde was sounding hawkish in the press conference, as well as announcing he will step down early as ECB President in February 2027 to freely voice her views on broader European issues, including the French debt crisis. Meanwhile, bond yields edged lower in safe-haven trades, oil prices retreated below US$115 per barrel for Brent, and the Australian dollar slipped back towards 70.3 US cents as markets await the Bank of Japan's rate decision.

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Thursday 29th October 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Ray Attrill unpack a frantic 24 hours of central bank decisions, domestic inflation data, and shifting rate calls. Global bond yields plunged—led by a sharp 8-basis-point drop in US two-year Treasury yields—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly dovish tone during his post-FOMC press conference, suggesting inflation medicine is taking effect and casting doubt on a December hike, whilst holding rates steady today. In Wellington, the RBNZ delivered a major shock by voting 4–3 to hold rates on hold rather than deliver a widely priced hike, sending the Kiwi dollar sliding 1%, while the Bank of Canada moved in the opposite direction with a 25-basis-point increase. Domestically, with Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI printing at a sticky 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (4.3% year-on-year) alongside hawkish parliamentary testimony from Governor Michele Bullock, NAB has officially updated its forecast to call for an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day next week. Meanwhile, Brent crude edged back above US$115 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, French bond spreads continued to widen, and equity markets braced for high-stakes post-market earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft.

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Wednesday 28th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Skye Masters break down a risk-on session across global equity markets set against a tense, pivotal day for monetary policy. Wall Street rallied—led by a 2.2% surge in the Nasdaq and broad tech strength—fuelled by news of mega-cap chip-financing deals and solid US consumer confidence readings. The primary focus, however, turns squarely to domestic macro data, with Australian Q3 CPI arriving today. With markets pricing in roughly a 60% probability of an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day, Skye explains why NAB sees downside risks to the consensus 1.0% trimmed mean expectation. Across global central banks, attention turns to meetings for the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the FOMC, alongside the delivery of the UK budget.

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Tuesday 27th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Rodrigo Catril unpack a choppy overnight session marked by major political shifts, geopolitical tension, and resilient tech sentiment. Brazilian markets faced sharp domestic repricing after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a runoff victory, while geopolitical attention turns to the neck-and-neck Israeli elections. On Wall Street, equities pushed higher—led by a broad-based rally across technology and semiconductors following news of Anthropic's planned public listing—even as investors keep a cautious eye on upcoming earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon alongside the FOMC meeting. In bond markets, French 10-year yields tightened 12 basis points against German Bunds following Moody's decision to hold France's sovereign rating steady, while Brent crude remains elevated above USD$115/bbl amid ongoing Middle East security risks. Closer to home, the Australian dollar held firm above 70 US cents as markets await crucial domestic Q3 CPI figures to gauge whether or not the RBA's rate-hiking cycle is over, or at least delayed.

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Monday 26th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton at the start of what is set to be one of the most critical weeks of the year for global financial markets. Investors face a relentless barrage of catalysts: five major central bank meetings (including the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, FOMC, ECB, and the Bank of Japan), high-stakes quarterly earnings from Big Tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the Israeli national election, and the looming shadow of next week’s US midterms. Oil prices broke through the USD$117/bbl mark on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared across the Middle East, while flash PMIs revealed unexpected resilience in the UK and steady momentum in the US alongside mounting cost pressures. Domestically, the Australian dollar pushed above 70 US cents ahead of this week’s critical Q3 Australian CPI release, which follows hawkish rhetoric from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter on 60 minutes last night, leaving market expectations split on a potential Melbourne Cup Day rate hike.

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Friday 23rd October 2026

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In this Weekend Edition, Phil speaks with Erin Leigh Brown, co-author of the Grattan Institute's landmark report Budget Reboot: How to Fund Australia's Future. They break down Grattan's controversial proposed tax reform package: broadening and raising the GST from 10% to 15% across all goods (including fresh food, health, and education) to raise $76 billion annually, while directing $33 billion to targeted income tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners and $25 billion to welfare boosts. Brown addresses criticisms from both sides of the political spectrum—responding to free-market arguments around state expenditure controls as well as welfare advocate concerns regarding GST regressivity—and explains how the package aims to put low-income households $150 a week ahead while creating fiscal room to replace inefficient state taxes like stamp duty.

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Friday 23rd October 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB's Gavin Friend to analyse a sharp risk-off session across global markets, driven by tech valuation worries and ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions. US equities fell heavily—led by a 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq following Meta’s increased capital expenditure outlook—while benchmark Brent crude oil surged near $113 per barrel amid Houthi drone strikes and escalating transport costs. Investors rushed into safe-haven Treasuries, pushing US 10-year yields down 16 basis points, while European bond markets saw further divergence as French OAT yields jumped on fiscal uncertainty, pushing the French German 10-year spread wider. Market attention will remain on US tech earnings alongside central bank decisions next week, and preliminary October PMI prints today.

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Thursday 22nd October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer spending driven primarily by non-mortgage holders. Globally, French 10-year bond yields climbed past 5% for the first time since 2002 as fiscal debate drags on, UK inflation printed slightly higher than expected at 3.5%, and oil prices remained elevated around $108 per barrel for Brent.

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Wednesday 21st October 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion. On Wall Street, tech stocks staged a recovery ahead of major earnings releases from Meta and SpaceX, while US pending home sales plunged 12.6% year-over-year under the weight of elevated mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar briefly touched 70 US cents.

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Monday 19th October 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs—against reports that Middle Eastern crude export flows remain near 80% of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rallied half a percent toward the 70 US cent mark on broader currency strength, though domestic monetary tightening expectations and economic slowing continue to cap a broader breakout.

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Monday 19th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trump moved to lift select sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and gas, prompting Ukraine to step up retaliatory drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—including a major attack on the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Meanwhile, market sentiment across Europe is being tested by widespread student and public-sector protests in France over severe budget cuts and austerity proposals, threatening broader sovereign debt spreads. Looking ahead, investors face a busy week of Q3 earnings reports, flash PMIs, and critical Chinese GDP and activity data.

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Friday 16th October 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Tom Jensen, Head of International Freight & Logistics at the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), to unpack the relentless disruptions hitting global sea freight. From post-COVID supply chain adjustments and soaring landside fees to the Red Sea crisis and escalating Middle East tensions, the conversation explores how foreign shipping lines are passing on heavy conflict surcharges and longer transit costs to Australian importers and exporters. Jensen details the impact of global carrier consolidation, vertical integration into landside terminals, and the structural imbalance between 40-foot import containers and 20-foot/reefer export demand. He also sheds light on Australia's port efficiency challenges, landside empty container park fees, Part X competition law exemptions, and the Federal Government's trial of a strategic fleet to safeguard national supply chains.

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Friday 16th October 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment rate edging up to 4.7%. Meanwhile, US producer price inflation surprised to the upside with a 1.3% monthly surge, reinforcing expectations of persistent cost pressures ahead of scheduled remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok.

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Thursday 15th October 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention shifts to today's crucial Australian September employment figures; following August's sharp jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. What will today’s print mean for the RBA’s November decision?.

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Wednesday 14th October 2026

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In today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equity markets traded softer as the IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook flagged rising inflation forecasts and elevated bond yields as primary systemic risks, while US markets digested a mixed bag of Q3 bank earnings ahead of crucial CPI data.

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Tuesday 13th October 2026

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Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key local releases—including the NAB Business Survey and the RBA meeting minutes.

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