OhSoSpurs — The Tottenham Hotspur Podcast

34 shots against 10-man Palace, so why do only Liverpool create fewer clear chances than Spurs? Jim brings the Gradient Sports numbers, and Johnny puts his name to a fifth-place finish.

Jim, Johnny and Stu walk through Tottenham's third straight Premier League win: Jean-Philippe Mateta's red card, goals from Archie Gray and Jan Paul van Hecke, and a Spurs Premier League record 758 passes. They get into Sandro Tonali playing like two players, Steven Gerrard's comments on Antonin Kinsky, Luca Williams-Barnett's debut, Mykhailo Mudryk's future and whether Spurs should break the bank for Eli Junior Kroupi in January.

Then it's the Halloween quiz, where Johnny lodges an appeal, and Jim digs up the panel's best and worst takes of the season. One of them wins the worst-take vote without a single challenger, and the man who said it wasn't there to defend himself. You'll want to hear who.

Thanks to OhSo33 members Jack, Kevin, Dean, Mr Pipe, David, Linda, Howard, Roston and Sean for this week's questions.

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How can Tottenham turn total control into open-play chances? A Licence coach JJ says Spurs are still rushing it in the final third, even after a third straight Premier League win.

Jim and JJ walk through Tottenham's 2-0 win over 10-man Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta's red card on Micky van de Ven, why Palace's low block was so hard to break without Savio, and where Roberto De Zerbi's side are after three wins on the bounce. They pick their most improved players under De Zerbi, from Archie Gray and Mateus Fernandes to Mathys Tel, Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven, and why Sandro Tonali is the one player JJ would keep fit all season.

JJ thinks a new striker could help, but only a different profile. You'll want to hear why he wouldn't sign another Dominic Solanke or Omar Marmoush right now.

Thanks to Roston for sending in this week's question.

Want the full Palace deep dive with JJ and Enya? Join The 82nd Percentile on Patreon, 7-day free trial: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

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AUDIO LISTENERS PLEASE READ:

I have put together a visual pack so you can see the screen shots and moments we are talking about with time stamps https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1jhyPIeMOaz5LpvqptPl3i9K71rmeweln

How has Micky van de Ven gone from 13th percentile to 91st for line-breaking passes in one summer? Professional analyst Enya says it's a role change, not a form swing, and the frames back her up.

Jim and Enya walk through the Gradient data on Tottenham's most transformed player under Roberto De Zerbi: line-breaking passes, passes into the final third, positioning mistakes and the carries that have been coached out. Then they put the numbers next to the footage from Fulham and Crystal Palace last season and Chelsea away this season, and the pattern is the same every time. The second half covers Conor Gallagher, Gradient's most improved Spurs player year on year, and why Mathys Tel's passing into the box has jumped 70 percentile points.

The Chelsea 13th-minute frame sits in the same zone of the pitch as a Fulham frame from last season, and the decision is the opposite. You'll want to see the two side by side.

Listening on audio? The full frame pack with timestamps is here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1jhyPIeMOaz5LpvqptPl3i9K71rmeweln

Weekly deep dives with Jim, Enya and A Licence coach JJ on The 82nd Percentile: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

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What did Spurs do at Stamford Bridge that they couldn't do in August? A Licence coach JJ says it comes down to two things: De Zerbi's ladder and the honeycomb.

Jim and JJ go through Tottenham's 2-0 win at Chelsea player by player: Kinsky's brave sweeper role, why De Zerbi called it Van de Ven's best game under him, Mateus Fernandes in the deeper role, Mathys Tel's second half and his goal, Kudus' work rate, and where Marmoush actually fits in this squad.

JJ puts it on record that Fernandes has "potentially a world class player" in him, and breaks down Tel's goal touch by touch, from the line of the run to the two touches before the shot. Then he explains the ladder and the honeycomb, and you'll want to hear why he thinks it's the whole reason Spurs won.

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Is beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge the moment Spurs fans finally trust the manager? Jim calls it "a turning point of trust", and Si hasn't stopped smiling.

Jim, Johnny and Si go through Tottenham's 2-0 win at Chelsea: Si on Mateus Fernandes as the pivot that made everything click, Jim on why Tonali and Fernandes give Spurs one of the best midfields in the league, and Johnny on Mathys Tel, the forgotten man who kept his head up through all the criticism and scored one of the goals of the season.

The members' questions take the episode somewhere deeper. Si explains what he's learned about De Zerbi from the players who've worked under him, and Johnny makes the case for Spurs fans dropping the shackles of the past, with one condition he's not willing to compromise on. Then the panel give their honest answer on whether Spurs can qualify for the Champions League and win the FA Cup.

Thanks to Sean, Roston, Jonathan, Liam and Mr Pipe for the questions.

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Has the recovery finally started? Spurs have their first Premier League win, but DJ calls it relief rather than joy, and Stu says the 3-1 was "very flattering".

Jim, Stu and DJ go through the win over Coventry: Tonali's role and why he isn't Pirlo, De Zerbi's back five, James Madison as the difference maker, Kulusevski's emotional return, and Marmoush opening his account. They also look at the aerial problem at centre back, Archie Gray covering everywhere, and whether Ben Davies is about to become a starter.

Stu has the numbers on the "cursed stadium" myth, and you'll want to hear why DJ thinks Marmoush is the new Brennan Johnson. Then it's Chelsea away, and only one of the three predicts a Spurs win.

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Can Spurs finally get off the bottom against Coventry? Four panellists, four predictions, and not one of them is backing against a Tottenham win.

Jim, Johnny, Stu and Si preview Monday night's game against Coventry, starting with the good news: Kulusevski is back on the bench. Then the bad news. Savio is out for "some weeks", Bergvall's knee thins the midfield again, and Si puts his name to a guaranteed Maddison start against his boyhood club. The panel also ask whether the Richarlison decision was ever De Zerbi's to make, and why Spurs passed on the Turkey offer.

Stay for the end, where things get silly. Johnny is asked which figure from history should give the team talk, and you'll want to hear how that goes. Stu picks an emergency loan from Milan or PSV, and Si chooses whose phone he'd scroll through after the Marbella trip.

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Is Coventry at home the best chance Spurs will get all season? Professional analyst and former player Enya says the numbers make it a must-win.

Jim and Enya preview Tottenham vs Coventry using the data: the expected points table, Coventry's numbers after their 4-1 win over Newcastle, and why a deep block could still make Spurs uncomfortable. They also go through the big selection calls, including Maddison or Gallagher at number 10, Senesi or Van de Ven, Bergvall or Fernandes without Bentancur, and Solanke or Marmoush, before picking their starting XIs and predicting the score.

Listen for where Chelsea sit on expected points ahead of Stamford Bridge, and for the name second on Spurs' xG list. Neither of us saw it coming.

Enya's full data pack for this game is on The 82nd Percentile Patreon, with a free trial: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

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Can a draw feel like a win? After Spurs came back with ten men at Old Trafford, the panel says this was the first emotional win of the season, and the numbers back it up.

Jim, Si, Stu and DJ go through Man United vs Tottenham: the first half Spurs dominated, Solanke’s equaliser after the armband show of faith, Tonali’s understated best game in a Spurs shirt, Gallagher’s pressing, Van Hecke’s distribution and the moments he was caught out, and why Archie Gray and Destiny Udogie deserve more credit. Then Coventry at home, and why it has to be a win.

The Bentancur red card splits the panel too. Everyone agrees his was deserved, but once you hear Si and Stu go at it over Luke Shaw, you’ll have to pick a side.

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Why is A Licence coach JJ frustrated after Spurs’ late point at Old Trafford? Because they dominated Man United for almost an hour and should have been out of sight.

Jim and JJ break down Man United vs Tottenham: the line-up and the load management behind it, why Mateus Fernandes isn’t starting, Conor Gallagher’s man-of-the-match performance, the pressing that pinned United back, Van Hecke being isolated out wide, and how the Bentancur red card started. Then Solanke: whether the captain’s armband was a gamble, and why it paid off.

There’s also a moment JJ can’t let go of. Once you hear how close Kudus came to an open goal, you’ll understand why Savio is his biggest frustration.

The full deep dive on this game lands on The 82nd Percentile on Monday, with a free week’s trial on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

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Would you take five years of great football finishing second to Arsenal, or ugly football that finishes above them? DJ says Spurs fans who claim they want beautiful football really just want wins.

Jim, Johnny and DJ preview Man United vs Tottenham: why Old Trafford might suit this Spurs side better than home, the centre-back worries before kick-off, Udogie over Robertson against United’s wingers, Kudus and Savio out wide, and whether Gallagher plays the 10. Then they get to when “we’re getting better” has to turn into wins, and what a fair punishment for Man City looks like.

DJ also gives a first look at his research into every Premier League goal this season, and once you hear how many involve a deflection or a penalty, you’ll understand why he believes in luck even if De Zerbi doesn’t. The full video is free on The 82nd Percentile: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

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Can Spurs finally get the win at Old Trafford? United fan Mike from TA Outdoors says both clubs have exactly the same problem, and it shows the moment either side goes a goal down.

Jim and Mike preview Man United vs Tottenham: two squads underperforming their talent, home crowds turning faster than ever, Carrick and De Zerbi under pressure, the Rashford and Cunha debate, injury lists that are clearing but not yet fit, and the battle on Spurs’ right where Savio meets Luke Shaw. Then both make their score predictions, and Mike explains why he thinks Spurs will still finish top six.

There’s also a piece of trivia Mike walks straight into, about which club David Beckham spent his first four years with. Most United fans have never heard it.

Mike also shares his favourite way to get outdoors this weekend, making soap from silver birch leaves. Find him at TA Outdoors, linked in the show notes.

https://youtu.be/l8HzHE4N2WI?si=ffEjhSOb8-5LVlNX

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What should happen to Manchester City now? Luke, an MBA and self-confessed football business nerd, says relegation alone would barely register, and that the Premier League's own reputation depends on getting this right.

Jim and Luke walk through the full picture with City found to have broken the rules and an appeal pending: why the league's commercial pull rests on trust, the Serie A precedent, how Chelsea's case differs, what a complete punishment package looks like, and the compensation question for clubs like Tottenham who missed out on Champions League football.

And there's one scenario nobody is talking about yet. Once you hear what a January fire sale of City's squad could look like, and where Luke thinks Haaland ends up, you'll see why this could reshape far more than one club.

Dedicated to Indy Spurs in Indianapolis.

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Do Tottenham's worst starts really lead to their best eras? Author and White Hart Review editor Andrew Pettifer has fifty years in the stands and two books of research that say the pattern is real.

Jim and Andrew walk through every precedent: the 1975 escape against champions Leeds, relegation turning straight into the Ardiles and Villa era, bottom in November 1988 with Gazza before finishing sixth, the 2008 two-points-from-eight season that became the Redknapp years, Poch's near-sacking in 2014, and the 1912-13 side that didn't win until game 13. Plus why nostalgia lies to all of us about which era was really the best.

And stay for the Sydney fish market story — oysters with Ledley King, a chance meeting with a club figure who didn't sleep for three months last season, and a trivia chain that ends with the invention of the Adidas Predator.

Andrew's books, with proceeds to charity — When the Final Whistle Blows (Cancer Research): https://geni.us/Spursbook and Two Tribes (Choose Love): https://geni.us/twotribes — plus The White Hart Review: https://www.whitehartreview.com/

Welcome to the OSoSpurs podcast — daily Tottenham Hotspur analysis and match reactions.

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What if every verdict on Tottenham is being passed on a team that no longer exists? Aaron of The Professor says the squad has turned over so completely, ten in and ten out, that judging this side on last season's evidence is analysing a section of the ground after everyone in it has changed seats.

Jim and Aaron work through the reset: why the new signings didn't inherit two years of trauma, the Man United comparison that shows how few survivors remain, why five games is no sample at all, and the case that Tottenham's goals are far closer than the mood suggests. Then the big one — the "just buy a goalscorer" myth, and the research showing how rarely anyone repeats a top-ten scoring season (Spurs have already run that experiment once).

Aaron also puts a prediction on the record about where Tottenham's goals come from by the end of the season — and once you hear the reasoning, the January striker debate sounds very different.

Read Aaron's Substack, linked in the show notes.

https://profspur.substack.com/

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Is Van Hecke Tottenham's best defender or their biggest liability? Professional analyst Enya says the data supports both — one of the two highest-graded centre backs in the Premier League, and Spurs' worst offender for positional mistakes at three times the league median.

Jim and Enya grade Tottenham's back line through Gradient's execution scores: how the Van Hecke–Van de Ven pairing was built as a deliberate trade-off, Van de Ven quietly ranking as the most reliable of the lot, Robertson's 89th percentile grade and the role he was actually signed for, the honest conversation about Kinsky's start, and the Spence-shaped gap pointing to a January right-back.

And there's a verdict on the "Robertson is washed" narrative that will annoy a lot of people — Enya ran his physical numbers, and one of them is the second-fastest speed clocked by any Spurs player this season.

The 82nd Percentile — our weekly hour-long data deep-dive with Enya, JJ and Jim, plus a midweek match pack — is on Patreon; the founding tier has now sold out, thank you: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

Sharp, honest, from the analyst's desk. The Analyst.

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How do you actually make Tottenham click? A Licence coach JJ says the click isn't one magic moment — it's a chain, and the first link is Savio, who the data already rates as Spurs' best player.

Jim, Enya and JJ work through every layer of the fix: the Villa numbers showing clear chances tripled in a single game, the confidence cycle that snaps whenever Spurs concede first, why no single signing solves it, the Will Lankshear alternate universe, six pivot players and one right back, and Enya's midfield reshuffle — Fernandes into the pivot, Gallagher at 10, and a Bentancur verdict JJ flat-out refuses to accept.

They also land on what the click will really look like — and it's not winning ten in a row. Once you hear Jim's stutter-into-gear theory, you'll watch the next five games differently.

Questions this week from Iva, Norway34, Tim Collins, Addlestone Spur, Simon, David and Howard — keep them coming in the Questions for Panel chat on Patreon.

This is the final free episode of The 82nd Percentile — from here it's Patreon-only, with a few discounted founding tiers remaining: https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile — The Analyst and A Coach's View stay free on Oh So Spurs.

Data over vibes. The 82nd Percentile.

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Are Tottenham actually just not very good? Two points from five games and 20th at the break, the full Originals panel finally puts the question on the table — and the answer is more uncomfortable than a simple yes.

Jim, Si, Johnny, Stu and DJ walk through the Villa collapse: the best first half at home in years undone by the concede-before-half-time curse, the bleeding rule that took Van de Ven off the pitch for the opener, DJ's cascade theory of the squad planning failures, Si's case that Spurs have had no club philosophy since push-and-run, and the first genuine panel doubts about De Zerbi — the prickliness, the psychologist answer, and why Stu says the real questions belong to Vinay and Lange.

There's also a forensic reading of Pedro Porro's Instagram post — and once Johnny reads it aloud, you'll reach the same six-month conclusion the panel did.

The 82nd Percentile, our weekly data deep-dive with JJ, Enya and DJ, is on Patreon — https://www.patreon.com/cw/82ndPercentile

Considered, warm, panel-honest. The Originals.

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Did De Zerbi get the Villa game wrong? A Licence coach JJ says the manager went off script — and for the first time this season, the coach is on his naughty list alongside the players.

Jim and JJ work through the defeat: the half-time Kudus change that broke Spurs' structure, why JJ would have hooked Marmoush first, the Tonali criticism he calls misplaced ("eight players in line before he reaches my office"), the Robertson–Kinsky mix-up rated 70/30, and Van Hecke's afternoon against Nico Jackson. Conor Gallagher gets his flowers too, after changing the game off the bench and scoring again — though the panel is awarding his goal to Matty Cash out of pure spite.

And there's a rant worth staying for: JJ's breakdown of the goal he says can never be conceded at Premier League level — Sunday league fines all round, kitman included.

The full data deep-dive on this match, with JJ, Enya and DJ, is on The 82nd Percentile — link in the show notes.

Tactical, honest, from the training pitch. A Coach's View.

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Can Aston Villa accidentally cure Tottenham's goal drought? Professional analyst Enya says Spurs' worst number in the league — xG per shot — is about to meet one of the only defences bad enough not to punish it.

Jim and Enya preview Tottenham vs Aston Villa through the Gradient Sports data: the central-channel mismatch at the heart of Saturday's game, why the models give Spurs a 46% win chance, Van Hecke's elite line-breaking numbers and Van de Ven's quiet step forward, the set-piece continuity nobody's crediting, and the off-ball running stats that explain the Marmoush problem at Anfield.

Enya also delivers her honest schedule-strength caveat — and once you hear which teams Spurs have actually faced, the "easy fixtures" narrative falls apart.

The 82nd Percentile, our weekly premium data show with JJ, Enya and DJ, is live on Patreon — roughly 15 founder spots (£5/month for life) remain.

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