Podcast
On The Market
Stay informed so you can invest with confidence. Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
- Investing chart
- #57
- Episodes
- 476
- Releases
- Twice a week
- Typical length
- 35 min
- On air since
- 2022
- Latest episode
- 14 hours ago
Episodes
476 episodes, newest first
-
37 min
Fannie Mae Sharply Raises 2027 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Episode 474
Show notes
Is there any relief coming next year for mortgage rates? According to Fannie Mae’s new 2027 mortgage rate prediction…it’s not looking too good. Previous mortgage rate forecasts predicted 6.7% rates throughout 2027. But with inflation running rampant again, a low-rate future looks less and less likely.
It’s already getting cold, and the housing market is starting to freeze in more ways than one. The latest inflation numbers were an unpleasant surprise—hotter-than-expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) and producer prices rising beyond expectations. The result? Higher mortgage rates, arguably locked in for longer. And the Fed can’t fix this one.
Buyers are dropping off in major markets, but sellers aren’t seeing it clearly. With inventory down, some sellers are getting hopeful that there are fewer houses to choose from…but not when pending sales are down double digits. Finally, we’ll touch on the housing market crash that already happened, and how everyone missed it.
In This Episode We Cover
Newest inflation numbers and whether they will force something to “break”
Fannie Mae’s updated mortgage rate forecast (any hope for lower rates?)
Sellers are getting the wrong signals: Why declining inventory may not be a good thing for them
The housing market collapse that already happened (and almost nobody noticed)
Go give someone a big tip this week; it’s getting hard out there for average Americans!
And So Much More!
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Reuters: US producer prices post largest gain in 4-1/2 years; expensive gasoline boosts retail sales
Scotsman Guide: Fannie Mae just tore up its 2027 mortgage forecast
HousingWire: Why falling housing inventory is sending sellers the wrong signal
eXp Realty: AGNT CEO Leo Pareja Says the Housing Market Collapse “Already Happened”
Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
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34 min
Pending Sales Just Fell Below 2008 Levels
Episode 473
Show notes
Pending home sales just hit their lowest level on record since the NAR started tracking them in 2001—and they fell in all 50 of the country's biggest metros. Winter hasn’t even begun yet, and we’re already seeing the massive effects of high mortgage rates, low affordability, and overall economic pessimism. And with inventory rising, it raises the question: how do we avoid housing-crash territory?
I made four key predictions a few months ago: transaction volume would fall, new listings would drop, inventory would rise, and home prices would flip negative (nominally). The dominoes are lined up, and the first three have already fallen—so what happens to home prices? Those betting on a housing crash are missing one key variable, and it’s the one thing that could keep us out of crash-style price cuts.
So I’m going through each data point to give you a clear look at why pending sales just hit the lowest level since record-keeping began, why inventory is rising while seller numbers aren't, and why home prices will begin to fall, but not to the levels you think.
In This Episode We Cover
What’s causing the dramatic lack of demand in the housing market (and why it may not get better)
Will our rising inventory eventually lead to a price crash?
Why sellers aren’t going to be forced to sell their homes at rock-bottom prices
The two factors that could cause mortgage rates to fall (or rise even more)
Why I’m still analyzing deals even as price drops don’t look like they’re stopping
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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On the Market 372 - New Recession Indicator Shows Americans Worse Off Than We Thought
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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42 min
J Scott: The House of Cards Is Going to Fall
Episode 472
Show notes
This economy is…confusing. Inflation is still high, AI is disrupting the labor market, and consumer sentiment is nearing a 70-year floor. Meanwhile, the stock market keeps climbing, and unemployment remains around historic lows. So, what’s really happening? Are we in the clear, or is something big about to break?
J Scott is back to share his thoughts on the state of the economy and the warning signs investors can’t afford to ignore. The Fed seems to have lost much of its influence over interest rates, and bond investors aren’t buying the rhetoric that this bout of inflation is short-term. In the housing market, supply and demand have fallen, bringing transactions to a standstill—all while pre-foreclosures are slowly rising.
And that’s just the beginning. Everyone’s got one eye on AI, the wild card that could send everything spiraling. We’re unpacking the three factors that will cause the next recession, what the next six months could look like, and how investors can prepare their real estate portfolios for what comes next.
In This Episode We Cover
J Scott’s short- and long-term economic forecast
The three factors that will cause the next global recession
Why even the “strong” stock market and job market feel unstable
Where interest rates could be headed in the coming months
Why more distress is on the table for residential real estate
How real estate investors can best prepare for an economic downturn
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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On the Market 432 – J Scott: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Begins to Break
J Scott's BiggerPockets Profile
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38 min
If You’re Making More Money Than Ever But Still Feel Broke, Hear This
Episode 471
Show notes
The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper.
We’re going into each lever that’s curbing affordability in the United States: wages, prices, savings rates, which generations are being hit hardest (not much of a surprise), overconsumption, and subscriptions that used to be one-time charges. I’ll also track the progress from the past three decades (2019, 2009, and 1999) to see where we went so wrong.
If you make more money than ever but are still shocked by how little you can save or how much necessities cost, you’re not alone. We’re breaking down why Americans feel so squeezed, which prices are hitting hardest, and why a pay raise (unless it’s colossal) may not be enough to solve this.
In This Episode We Cover
The affordability crisis broken down and why rising wages aren’t solving the problem
The biggest price jumps on products and services that are outpacing wages
America’s biggest failure when it comes to economically setting up the next generation
Why even the higher-income earners still feel broke in 2026’s economy
Generations that are hit the hardest by a myriad of expenses
The overconsumption and subscription traps that are keeping Americans spending
What real estate investors must do to prepare now for the affordability crisis among renters
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
On the Market 469 - A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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40 min
The “2nd Wave” of the Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Close w/Brian Burke
Episode 470
Show notes
Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot.
So…how much lower can commercial real estate prices go?
He was right about past crashes, so we asked Brian Burke to join us again on the show for his take. Brian, quite famously by now, sold most of his multifamily portfolio at the peak of the post-COVID boom, took profits, and sat on the beach for a few years while strategizing when (and how) to get back into the market.
But even Brian isn’t convinced this is the bottom for the multifamily market—rent concessions are plentiful, lease trade-outs are negative (new renters are paying less than previous renters), and cap rates haven’t expanded enough. But the time to strike could be coming soon.
Today, Brian shares the game plan he uses to gauge when to get back into a bottoming-out market, and what buyers must do to get a great deal, great funding, and a great exit.
In This Episode We Cover
Why the commercial real estate crash may not be over yet (a “second wave” is coming)
Incoming cap rate expansion and why brokers are still pushing almost illogical multiples
The “four-way traffic collision” that caused the commercial real estate value drop
Why trying to time the bottom will cost you, but getting in a little bit late will not
What a “good” multifamily deal looks like to Brian in today’s market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
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Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
On The Market 440 - Commercial Real Estate Is Quietly Setting Up for a Decade-Long Bull Run
Grab Brian’s Book, The Hands-Off Investor
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38 min
A Housing Market “Recovery” Is Further Away Than We Thought
Episode 469
Show notes
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?
I did the math and have an answer for how long it will actually take for the housing market to recover.
So first, what does a "normal" housing market actually mean? We’re going to look at two data sets: 1989-2026 and 2019 levels, the last year before pandemic-fueled inflation started to boil the housing market. Back in 2019, Americans spent only around 15% of their income on housing payments; today, it’s nearly 25%. So, how do we return to a market where homes are actually affordable?
I’ll walk through each scenario: wages rising significantly, mortgage rates falling, and home prices crashing, and then paint a picture of what happens if all of them (reasonably) move in the right direction.
If someone is convincing you the market is about to get much cheaper, or much more affordable, or that you should just wait until it’s easier to buy…good luck.
In This Episode We Cover
Exactly what needs to happen for housing affordability to return to “normal” levels
The three “levers” that control housing affordability, and which are likely to move
Why it could take years (or even decades) to get back to the average affordability level
Are we stuck in a new era of mega-expensive housing payments?
Why waiting to buy a home (or your next rental) could be a very long bet
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
NAR Housing Affordability Index
Grab the Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-469.
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26 min
Nearly Half of Buyers Get Concessions as Fed Warns Prices Must Drop
Episode 468
Show notes
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?
We’re back with this week’s headlines! We’ve brought good news for buyers, scary news for sellers, and strange-smelling stories about multifamily investors. Seller desperation is peaking as concessions offer buyers the biggest opportunity in six years. Even the Fed is taking note, as one official warns about home affordability and why prices need to drop to make progress.
Now, what the heck is that black stuff behind the fridge? That’s the question multifamily investors are asking themselves as mold-based litigation ramps up and renters prepare to get paydays thanks to some severe spores. If you own a home in the Northwest, the South, or anywhere else that gets humid, here is what you should do to avoid a pricey repair.
In This Episode We Cover
The rise in seller concessions and how to unlock price cuts, lower mortgage rates, or covered closing costs
The $70K concession James is making to literally rearrange a floor plan to sell a house
A Fed official’s warning on home prices and why they may still be too high
The deals popping up and sitting on the market that could be solid rentals
A major mold problem: Why you should check your rental ASAP (before a lawyer gets involved)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Redfin: Nearly Half of Homebuyers Get Concessions From Sellers as Most Markets Tip in Buyers’ Favor
Realtor: Fed Official Sounds Warning on Housing as Affordability Hits 21-Year Low
Bisnow: Mold Is Growing Into Major Problem For Apartment Owners
Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-468.
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36 min
The American Economy Enters Its “Lost Decade”
Episode 467
Show notes
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”
No huge gains, no massive price drops, just a slow, stagnating market where inflation eats away at the returns we once thought were normal. Stocks are already massively overpriced according to the CAPE Ratio and the Buffett Indicator, real estate is unaffordable and already seeing real price declines, and commercial has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Can we go up from here? The argument isn’t looking optimistic.
So, if it’s about to be a whole lot harder to make a return on real estate, in the stock market, or anything else worth buying, what should you do?
Today, Dave breaks down America’s “lost decade” and what to do to protect your wealth from inflation erosion that looks more likely by the day. There are ways to maintain strong real estate returns along the way, but most investors take the easy route and fail to profit because of it.
You can escape this “lost decade,” but only if you’re prepared for it.
In This Episode We Cover
America’s “lost decade” that could upend returns for real estate, stocks, and more
The one asset class that has potential upside in the coming years
Why “not investing” is not a strategy that will save you from wealth erosion
Why we could go years without home price appreciation or solid stock gains
The two indicators flashing right now that are signaling an overpriced market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On the Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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44 min
America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)
Episode 466
Show notes
For years, we’ve been told that the United States is short millions of homes, and that building more units is the key to solving the affordable housing crisis. But a 2024 study from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a different conclusion and suggests that the housing shortage narrative may be built on a shakier foundation than we’ve been led to believe.
Kirk, professor emeritus at the University of Kansas, joins today’s show to dig into the actual Census data gathered from 2000-2020 and whether it really points to a nationwide shortage…or something much different.
If we don’t have a supply problem, why are homes and rents still so expensive? Should policymakers rethink their push for new construction? And where could government dollars have the greatest impact?
We’ll unpack the implications of Kirk’s findings, why home prices can remain elevated when there are millions of vacant homes available, and whether today’s housing policies are actually helping the people who need it most. These answers could upend how we think about the housing crisis and give real estate investors another perspective on where the market might be headed.
In This Episode We Cover
Findings from Kirk’s research on America’s housing “shortage”
Where government dollars can actually help solve housing affordability
The real reason home prices and rents haven’t fallen, despite oversupply
Why declining household formation is tied to affordability, not housing supply
Why America’s K-shaped economy continues to worsen
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
A Glut of New Inventory is on the Way—How Should Investors Prepare?
Study: Where Is the Housing Shortage?
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-466.
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-
36 min
The Trillion-Dollar Bubble Grows Bigger
Episode 465
Show notes
AI could lead to an extinction event, but don’t worry, the stock market will be hitting all-time highs on the way there!
We’re entering a new phase of the artificial intelligence race where now CEOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are practically begging for industry-wide regulation. This all seems too… convenient. What’s really behind this new AI regulation push, and how close are we to a society-shaking event?
Dave is back to give his full take on the AI race. A lot has happened recently—warnings of dangers to humanity, rogue agents setting up untraceable communications, and AI CEOs conveniently wanting to join forces. First, we’ll touch on the Hugging Face incident that triggered an unprompted cyberattack that human oversight was kept out of; then the economic risks to all Americans (what happens if this AI bubble bursts); and finally why these CEOs are suddenly pushing regulation so hard.
Let’s get into the financials, though: these companies are losing billions of dollars every year and have extremely optimistic projections to hit. The question is, what happens if they’re off the mark? Past bubbles resulted in an almost 80% stock market crash…but this time, the AI industry is even bigger.
In This Episode We Cover
Why top AI companies suddenly want the government to “regulate” the industry
The chances of an extinction event now that AI agents can go rogue without our knowledge
The risks to real estate, the stock market, and many Americans’ retirement accounts
The trillion-dollar bubble that is looking a lot like the dot-com and railroad bubbles of decades past
Why citizens from other countries are so much more optimistic about AI than Americans
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
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-
28 min
The Path to 8% Mortgage Rates
Episode 464
Show notes
8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.
After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.
James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?
Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.
In This Episode We Cover
The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)
Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario
How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit
It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?
Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
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Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-464.
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36 min
The Housing Market Correction Is Spreading
Episode 463
Show notes
The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.
The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.
Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions and price cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.
So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?
In This Episode We Cover
Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow
Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports
The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options
The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure
How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-463.
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32 min
Rates Were Hiked: Here’s What Investors Should Do Now
Episode 462
Show notes
The Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, but did it actually help the housing market? Our panel of real estate investing experts isn’t all that bummed by potentially higher rates and less housing market activity—why? Because new opportunities are forming thanks to the Fed’s recent rate hike—opportunities that could make deals even better to buy in 2026 and into 2027.
We’re back discussing the biggest housing market headlines from last week. Obviously, we can’t talk about headlines without touching on the Fed meeting and subsequent rate hike. Ripples from that decision could start showing up in the real estate market soon—price cuts for some properties, canceled listings for others, and stalled sellers who refuse to budge but won’t get bids.
So, what should investors do now to ensure they’re picking up solid deals with the likelihood that prices could continue dropping across many markets? The full panel is sharing what they’re actually doing now—from paying points to cutting insurance costs, getting HELOCs ready, and more.
You can use this market to your advantage—and we already are.
In This Episode We Cover
The aftermath of the first Fed rate hike since 2023 (and what it means for home prices)
Trump's 1% federal funds rate demand and whether it could actually happen
Will sellers begin pulling out of the market as buyers begin to drop off?
What we’re doing right now to buy better deals and sell the ones that aren’t performing
The things that must be solved before interest rates can come back down
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
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Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Quartz: Trump demands 1% interest rates after Fed hike, backs Warsh
Reuters: US homebuilder sentiment drops to 12-month low in September
Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-462.
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32 min
You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Episode 461
Show notes
The U.S. government may have just lost the war on mortgage rates.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced one of its biggest bond buyback programs in years—a whopping $6 billion allocated to (hopefully) lower bond yields, and by proxy, interest rates. Not only did it backfire, but it may have angered the bond investors so much that the market’s recovery is now in jeopardy. Do we still have any hope of lowering bond yields and mortgage rates so the housing market can get back in business?
Today, we’re breaking down the good, the bad, and the ugly buybacks of the bond market, how this will affect your mortgage rates over the next year, and what can be done to spur confidence in bond yields (and the U.S. government). Dave even gives his mortgage rate prediction for 2027, with a range of where we could end up by this time next year.
If rates stay high and housing demand gets even more subdued, the buying opportunities, price cuts, and seller concessions could only increase. Are you going to take advantage?
In This Episode We Cover
A full update on the bond market and how the U.S. government is trying to save yields
Dave’s 2027 mortgage rate prediction and whether we could go even higher than we are now
The failed bond “buyback” strategy that could take a long time to recover from
Three reasons why bond yields (and mortgage rates) are surging right now
How the Fed raising rates could actually lower your mortgage rate in the future
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 436 - The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
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31 min
This Is Better Than the 1% Rule (New Real Estate Rule)
Episode 460
Show notes
The rules ofreal estate investing have changed.
For years, investors were using the one-percent rule to quickly determine if a real estate deal would cash flow. But the one-percent rule, rent-to-price ratio, and other common rules of thumb have a glaring blind spot. They account for purchase price, but they don’t account for expenses.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance have all risen across the board—expenses that can easily kill your cash flow.
So, Dave’s come up with a new rule of thumb you can use to quickly analyze rental properties and markets. He’s calling it the rent-to-payment ratio. By comparing estimated rents to the estimated PITI payment itself, you’ll have a much better idea of whether a rental property will actually cash flow month to month.
And today, we’re not just breaking down how the formula works. Dave also built an entire spreadsheet that ranks U.S. real estate markets by their rent-to-payment ratios. Whether you’re looking for the best cash flow markets to invest in or a quick way to weed out unprofitable properties, this is the kind of math you need to make sharper investing decisions in 2026.
In This Episode We Cover
The “new” rule of thumb for finding great real estate deals and rental markets
Why rent-to-price ratio is a flawed metric (and which ratio to use instead)
Why the popular one-percent rule no longer works in 2026
The top 10 real estate markets with the highest rent-to-payment ratios
How to bake today’s mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance into your initial analysis
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
The Summer 2026 Rent-to-Payment Report: Where You Can Still Cash Flow with Real Estate
Grab Dave’s book, Real Estate by the Numbers
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38 min
We Asked Brokers: Where Is the Biggest Buyer's Market Today?
Episode 459
Show notes
Are the price cuts deeper than you think? Do buyers have even more power than we’ve been led to believe?
National housing data tells us one thing, but local-level expertise can paint a completely different picture. While national data points to marginal price cuts, brokers in major markets are seeing significantly more volatile numbers. We wanted to know what’s actually happening in big markets like Austin, Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa, Long Island, and beyond—so we called the actual brokers who do business there and got them on the show.
Today, we’re talking with Justin Hroch, Micah Mortag, and William ODonnell, brokers in the South, Southeast, and Northeast doing real deals for buyers, sellers, and investors. It’s no surprise that areas like the South are struggling, but how is (very expensive) New York faring with a changing political landscape and so many more regulations?
We’re getting into how long homes are sitting on the market, how much power buyers and sellers have, the price cuts you can anticipate, and what to look at before you buy a property in any of these markets.
In This Episode We Cover
Areas of the country seeing the biggest price cuts or bidding wars
What type of properties are selling fast even in slow markets like the South
The cities being buried in inventory where sellers are taking big haircuts on price
One market seeing strong appreciation, even in 2026 (we’re talking 8% price jumps!)
The “sweet spot” properties you can find in each of these areas to make a profit (regardless of how the market moves)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 450 - A Buyer’s Summer Is “On” as Asking Prices See Steepest Decline Since 2017
Justin's BiggerPockets Profile
William's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
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28 min
Fewer Investors Are Buying Homes as the Housing Market Shifts (Again)
Episode 458
Show notes
The housing market is sending mixed signals—or so it seems. Foreclosures are rising, yet many investors are pulling back. Cash buyers are retreating, competition is cooling in many markets, and affordability challenges appear to be catching up with investors. Are these signs of another 2008-like collapse, or is there context behind the numbers?
This week’s headlines largely point to waning investor activity. Investor home purchases are down, and the share of cash buyers is decreasing. Meanwhile, foreclosures are returning to levels we haven’t seen in several years.
But when you dig beneath the surface, nothing is as dire as it appears. Pent-up foreclosure starts are still well below historical norms. And while the market continues to cool in many areas, it’s creating rare opportunities and negotiation power for investors who are willing to go against the grain.
So where are these opportunities hiding, what secret “edge” do mom-and-pop investors have that others overlook, and how do you ensure today’s deals don’t become tomorrow’s disasters? We’re breaking it all down on today’s show.
In This Episode We Cover
How small investors can gain an edge in the current housing market
Why rising foreclosures aren’t the “warning sign” most think it is
New investing opportunities coming from decreased competition
Why many investors are leaving the housing market in 2026
How affordability challenges and regulatory risks are affecting investors
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
ATTOM: Foreclosure Activity Posts Annual Increase in First Half of 2026
Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020
CNBC: Cash Is No Longer King in Home Sales
Mortgage Defaults and Foreclosures Are Surging in Key Markets: What Investors Need to Know
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
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28 min
AI-Fueled Mini Housing Bubbles Form as Commercial Delinquencies Rise
Episode 457
Show notes
AI is bringing 6,000 jobs to a small Texan town, and home prices are seeing a sizable jump…but what happens once the job is done? Is this just a mini housing bubble waiting to happen, or is buying near an AI boomtown actually worth the risk? These scenarios may begin popping up more and more—what happens when it’s in your neck of the woods?
We’re back with more headlines on what’s affecting the housing market. AI-induced housing bubbles could be coming in hot as small, overlooked areas of the U.S. turn to boomtowns with more jobs and more housing demand (at least temporarily). If you are going to buy in or around one of these cities, this is what to buy so you don’t get burnt once the construction workers leave.
Fresh distress hits real estate as the “maturity wall” grows even taller. Multifamily delinquencies are up 600% from just a few years ago, and office space is struggling even with so many return-to-office announcements over the past two years. And it’s not just commercial real estate. Flippers are stuck with listings getting stale, with some 2/3 of house flippers seeing longer days on market. How do Henry and James, our house flipping experts, avoid holding a hefty hard money loan while waiting for a property to sell?
In This Episode We Cover
New AI boomtowns forming in small investing markets (and whether you should buy)
Why big properties, even though distressed, may not all fall to foreclosure any time soon
What to buy if you’re investing near a newly approved data center
Why not buying right now could be a huge mistake (even as investors struggle)
The one thing James asks from his lender to save him serious cash when a property won’t sell
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Texas Standard: Data center construction spurring a housing crisis in Abilene
CRED IQ: Property Types Feeling the August Heat
HousingWire: Fix-and-flip market shows signs of strain as mortgage rates climb
Grab James’s Book, The House Flipping Framework
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-457.
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50 min
The Bulletproof BRRRR in 2026 (Buying One Tomorrow!)
Episode 456
Show notes
Today’s guest is buying a perfect BRRRR tomorrow. Even with today’s interest rates, even in this housing market, Zach Kepes is still making serious money with the strategy everyone has assumed is dead—the BRRRR method. He’ll walk away with tens of thousands in equity, get a trophy rental property that will bring in rent for decades, and add to his already impressive 300+ single-family home portfolio.
He’s been BRRRRing for over 20 years, and he’s not stopping in 2026, especially when everyone else is. The question is…how is he still doing it?
Zach is one of the only humans on the planet who can match James’s deal-junkie energy. He’s been buying rentals since 2002, using the same strategy, but with different prices, financing, and renovations. Zach says it loud and clear: the BRRRR method still works in 2026, and he’s showing you his exact buy box to find perfect BRRRR properties, how to check comps to confirm they work, and how he pays for them, refinances them, and what new BRRRR investors can do today to start.
If the BRRRR method is so dead, how is Zach still making money with it?
In This Episode We Cover
Zach’s “four pillars” for a profitable BRRRR in 2026 (the rules to follow)
The quick BRRRR renovation Zach does on repeat for his rental properties
How to start BRRRRing today, even if you’re new to a market or investing
An actual BRRRR deal Zach is buying tomorrow (full numbers and projected returns)
The “key” to getting this strategy right (you need this on every deal you do)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
BiggerPockets Real Estate 1320 - How to Execute the “Slow” BRRRR Strategy in 2026 (Full Walkthrough)
Grab the BiggerPockets BRRRR Book
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43 min
Capital Calls: What to Know Before You Put In More Cash
Episode 455
Show notes
You invested in a real estate syndication, fund, or partnership. Now, the operator is coming to you asking for more cash. Whether expenses went up, income went down, mortgage rates had to be refinanced, or a combination of all three, you’re on the line—do you put more cash into the deal with hopes it saves your principal, or do you walk away, take a loss, and try again? This is what we do when the capital calls come our way.
A “capital call” is exactly what it sounds like—an operator is calling for more capital to be invested in a deal. But, more often than you’d think, you don’t have to say yes. Kathy recently told an operator “no” when they needed another sizable investment. Why? The money wasn’t going to the right place, and it wouldn’t have saved (or improved) the deal.
So how do you know when you should put in more money? Today, we’re talking all about capital calls—when to invest, when to walk away, what to ask for, when there’s fraud, and the three rules we personally follow before putting another dollar into the deal. More capital calls are coming, and you'd better be prepared before they do.
In This Episode We Cover
Capital calls explained—when it’s to improve a property vs. delay an inevitable loss
Three rules Kathy and James follow before putting any money into a capital call
When to (sternly) say “no” to an operator who’s trying to pocket your extra investment
Signs that it is worth it to invest more and your return will be saved (or increased)
The four people who must look over the documents with you before you invest and during a capital call
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Grab the Book on Syndication Investing, The Hands-Off Investor
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