Reality Check

The Spectator’s editor Michael Gove, political editor Tim Shipman, economics editor Michael Simmons, economist and CEO of the Great British Business Council Catherine McBride and Harry Bell, director of financial planning at Raymond James, will give their insights into the autumn Budget, just hours after it is announced.

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Chancellor John Healey has just delivered his first Budget of the Andy Burnham premiership – but has he done enough to turn the economy around?

In this special live edition of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons is joined by deputy political editor James Heale, former Treasury adviser – and Managing Director of Forefront Advisors – James Nation and pollster Scarlett Maguire – founder of Merlin Strategy, to unpack the Budget. From £100 energy payments and downgraded growth forecasts to what this means for Britain’s banks – is the Chancellor offering households genuine 'breathing space'?

Plus: has this first Burnham-Healey Budget stoked the flames, or dampened expectations, of an early general election?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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Andy Burnham’s first Budget as Prime Minister is approaching – but higher borrowing costs have already made the sums more difficult. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane joins Michael Simmons to warn that Britain has little room left to borrow more.

For this episode of Reality Check, Andy tells Michael what could be in next week’s Budget, why devolution alone is not a growth strategy and why he appears to have praised Kemi Badenoch’s economic policies this week. Plus: they discuss the Bank of England’s record on inflation – with Haldane arguing the Bank has not 'learnt its lesson’. What would he have done differently?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Henry Lloyd.

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Is Britain’s welfare state still a safety net or has it become a pipeline for long-term dependency? Almost one in ten six-year-olds are now categorised as disabled through the benefits system and, on current trends, that figure would rise to one in four 16-year-olds.

Reality Check’s Michael Simmons speaks to The Times's Fraser Nelson – former editor of this parish – about his investigation into Britain’s welfare system: why mental health and behavioural claims among children have surged, how disability benefits can follow young people into adulthood and why the system can leave people financially worse off for working.

Can Britain break the welfare ‘pipeline’ and what would real reform look like?

This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here: https://www.artemisfunds.com/

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

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For this special edition of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons hosts a panel from Conservative Party conference on Britain’s growing NEETs crisis: the hundreds of thousands of young people not in education, employment or training. He is joined by shadow education secretary Laura Trott, the CBI’s Megan Bulford, Spectator commissioning editor Lara Brown and the CPS's Daniel Herring.

Why are so many young people struggling to enter the labour market, and is the problem education, welfare, the cost of hiring or something deeper? The panel debate the value of university compared with apprenticeships, whether tax and employment regulation are shutting younger workers out, and whether Britain’s welfare system is making it too easy for young people to fall out of work altogether. Plus: are rising anxiety and poor mental health driving the crisis or are they symptoms of a labour market that is failing the young?

Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

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Will the next debt crisis arrive as a sudden market rout – or is Britain already in the foothills of a slower one? Bond markets are back in the headlines, with every move in gilt yields read as a verdict on Westminster.

Michael Simmons speaks to the editor of FT Alphaville Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt, about where bonds came from, who the 'bond vigilantes' really are, whether Liz Truss has a point about the Bank of England and why Britain's index-linked gilts have become so expensive.

This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Henry Lloyd

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Michael Simmons is joined live at Labour conference by TUC general secretary Paul Nowak to discuss the state of Britain’s labour market. Are higher wages and stronger employment rights making it harder to hire, or are taxpayers subsidising too many low-paid, insecure jobs? They also discuss energy costs, social care, taxing wealth and banks, and Labour’s biggest mistakes in government.

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What is fiscal ‘headroom’ – and why does it matter? Michael Simmons explains how Britain’s fiscal rules really work, why changes in borrowing costs can wipe billions off the Chancellor’s buffer, and why losing headroom does not automatically mean another round of tax rises.

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Some whistleblowers from the AI industry claim there is a more than 10% chance that artificial intelligence could wipe out humanity within a few years. A group of mostly Labour MPs has written to Andy Burnham calling for action on existential AI risk, while conceding there is little the British government can do about it alone.

Michael Simmons speaks to John Power about the incentives behind the warnings, whether AI can realistically be regulated and why more mundane harms, from AI-written complaints flooding bodies such as IPSO to hackers using chatbots, may deserve more attention. Are the doom-mongers sounding a genuine alarm – or selling the most powerful product ever built?

This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/

Produced by Henry Lloyd

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Arthur Laffer, the economist, former adviser to Ronald Reagan and architect of the Laffer Curve, goes head-to-head with journalist and left-wing author Aaron Bastani over one question: should Britain introduce a wealth tax?

Chaired by The Spectator’s economics editor and host of the Reality Check podcast, Michael Simmons, they debate whether a wealth tax could raise significant revenue, or simply drive wealth and investment out of the UK.

Spectator subscribers can watch the full debate at spectator.com/wealthtax.

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With two months to go until Andy Burnham and John Healey’s first Budget, speculation about tax rises is already beginning. But how much should we believe?

Michael Simmons looks at five facts about Britain’s tax system that should shape the debate – from a tax burden heading towards post-war highs to the surprising reality that taxes on the average worker remain relatively low. And with the wealthy already heavily squeezed, is there really anyone left to tax?

This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/

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The backlash to Channel 4’s The Great ADHD Myth has reignited a fierce debate over how we diagnose ADHD – and whether that debate itself is becoming impossible to have.

Michael Simmons looks at the extraordinary rise in diagnoses, the gap between recorded cases and underlying prevalence, and asks whether we are increasingly medicalising normal variations in behaviour.

Is Britain finally recognising a vast amount of unmet need – or has diagnosis begun to serve a social as well as a medical function?

This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/

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Britain is in the grip of another hot, dry summer, with hosepipe bans in force and fears growing about the country’s water supply. But are we really running out of water?

Michael Simmons is joined by Reality Check reporter John Power to explain what is actually behind the shortages, whether Britain needs more reservoirs and why nationalising the water companies may not be the answer. They also ask what the drought tells us about the future of net zero – and how Britain should adapt to a changing climate.

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Britain wants to become an AI superpower – but does it have the electricity to power one? Data centres underpin everything from online banking and streaming to artificial intelligence, and demand for them is exploding. The government has designated them as critical national infrastructure and is promising billions of pounds of investment, but Britain’s ageing grid is already struggling to keep up.

Michael Simmons asks whether the UK can build enough power stations, transmission lines and substations to support the AI revolution – and what the consequences could be for electricity bills, water supplies and local communities. He is joined by entrepreneur Michael Tobin and American energy journalist Robert Bryce to discuss why Britain needs data centres, the growing backlash against them and whether the country risks being left behind in the global AI race.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visitAlliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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Oliver Shah is a former journalist at The Sunday Times and now runs Newcome Advisory. On this week's Reality Check Oliver and Michael discuss why Labour can't build trust with the businesses, how the National Insurance tax hike was the poison pill for the private sector and whether it is still worth being an entrepreneur in Britain today.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit Alliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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Andy Burnham has launched a major push to overhaul adult social care in England, seeking cross-party consensus for a new National Care Service. He has refused to rule out tax rises to fund the reforms. Michael Simmons speaks to the author and journalist David Goodhart about why social care should be reframed as prevention, whether salaries should be increased in social care and why the public isn't as worried as politicians tend to panic about.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit https://www.alliancewitan.com/

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Amid rising backlash over the early prisoner release scheme, Kemi Badenoch has called for emergency legislation to stop the plans going ahead. The new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has already halted the plans until a review has been conducted. The situation with prison overcrowding is a ticking timebomb – what options are available? To alleviate the risk, some suggest women should be prioritised as candidates for early release, and women's prisons repurposed. To discuss, Michael Simmons is joined by the CEO of the Prison Reform Trust Pia Sinha.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit Alliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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Andy Burnham has laid out some of his top policy agendas for his premiership. Top of the list is to tackle homelessness – something the former Manchester mayor pledged to solve in Greater Manchester too, but the numbers have suggested the outcome was otherwise. What really needs to be done to fix homelessness in Britain? And how does his other policy of rent controls work against ending rough sleeping? Michael Simmons takes a look at the data.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit Alliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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Last week, the Joe Rogan Experience podcast released a two-hour interview with Rupert Lowe, leader of the Restore party. Was Lowe there merely to create content – or is Restore a serious political party? Some of his statements suggest it’s the former rather than the latter. The Spectator's John O'Neil wrote a piece for the website correcting some of Lowe's claims. He joined Michael Simmons on this week's Reality Check.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit Alliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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A report has suggested that white working class children are being failed by the education system that is 'not serving in [their] interests'. Burnham blames a lack of aspiration – but does this issue, like many others in Britain really stem from an overbearing state? Michael Simmons is joined by the Head of Communications and External Affairs at Onward, Joanna Marchong to discuss educational outcomes between ethnicities and the private school VAT charge.

This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment trust. To learn more about the trust and how we’re helping investors find their comfort zone, please visit Alliance Witan (ALW) | Investment Trust.

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