Podcast

Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

Football, Sports

Warren Sharp is joined by his NFL & College Football Analysts to pore through the data and bring you the smartest people in the sport to find edges to exploit and advantages to make better bets and win fantasy football leagues & contests! Featuring insights, projections and commentary from Warren Sharp, Rich Hribar, Ray Summerlin, Ryan McCrystal and the Sharp Football team!

Episodes
696
Releases
Twice a week
Typical length
47 min
On air since
2019
Latest episode
1 day ago

Episodes

696 episodes, newest first

  1. NFL Week 8 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 526

    Show notes

    NFL Week 8 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Minnesota put seven in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Jared Goff on 79 percent of his dropbacks, both the most in the week, and the Lions ran for 218 yards anyway as Jahmyr Gibbs went from 3.4 yards a carry in the first half to 9.7 in the second. Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes and Tampa Bay won. Dallas led Arizona 17-3, ran it 15 times for 1.9 a carry on second half early downs, threw on the drive that should have ended the game and lost in overtime. Denver finally gave the ball to Jonah Coleman and beat Kansas City, Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10, and the AFC picture changed. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Bears at Seahawks.

    The show opens with a tribute to Brendan Donahue, our mock draft expert, who passed away last week at 45. The most accurate mock drafter in the nation for seven straight years and a friend to everyone at Sharp Football. We will miss him.

    Get the free newsletter, every article we publish plus free bets and player props, at https://sharp.football.

    Players and coaches discussed: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Baker Mayfield, Michael Penix, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, George Pickens, Brian Schottenheimer, Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold.

    What You'll Learn

    • Minnesota put 7 plus in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Goff on 79 percent of dropbacks, both the most any offense saw this week
    • Detroit ran for 218 yards at 6.4 a carry anyway, both second in the week, with the top elusiveness rating of the week, 19.4
    • Gibbs by half: 3.4 yards a carry, -0.49 EPA per rush and 18 percent success before the break, 9.7, +0.40 and 75 percent after it, against the same boxes
    • The fix was inside zone: two first half inside zone runs went 19 and 12, Detroit doubled the calls after halftime and averaged 14.8 a carry on them
    • Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes, Tampa Bay has won two straight on 7 total completions
    • Arizona's first seven drives: punt, downs, interception, punt, field goal, fumble, punt, then four touchdowns in the final 17 minutes with Gardner Minshew
    • Up 24-17 at the Arizona 16 with 4:13 left, Dallas ran, threw a 1 yard pass, threw incomplete on third and 11 and kicked. Up 27-24 at the 20, same result. Arizona tied it with 10 seconds left
    • Dallas second half early downs: 15 runs at 1.9 a carry and -0.31 EPA, 14 dropbacks at 8.3 yards per attempt and +0.26 EPA, and the run calls kept coming
    • Dallas motion fell from 55.6 percent of first half snaps to 7.1 percent, and George Pickens was targeted less than backup TE Brevin Spann-Ford
    • The Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman against the Chiefs
    • Buffalo 36, Baltimore 10, and what the AFC looks like through Week 8
    • Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro
    00:18 Remembering Brendan Donahue
    02:49 Jahmyr Gibbs is special
    05:13 Cowboys epic failure
    12:26 Two blowouts that taught us nothing
    16:01 The AFC picture
    19:12 Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman
    21:54 Night night for the Ravens
    23:30 Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis
    32:14 Wrap-up

    Watch the show on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis on YouTube

    Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

    Weekly, monthly and full season packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Guests: Curtis on Monday Night Football.

    Follow Us

    Warren Sharp on X: @SharpFootball
    Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    33 min
  2. (40-16, 71%) NFL Week 8 Best Bets & Player Props 2026: Ravens-Bills, Bears-Seahawks

    Episode 525

    Show notes

    NFL Week 8 best bets, player props and picks for Ravens at Bills, Browns at Steelers, Colts at Jaguars, Titans at Bengals, Chiefs at Broncos and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 8 referee report.

    Sign up for FanDuel (Bet $5 for 7 Days, Get $350 in Bonus Bets): https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/go/fanduel-X

    Warren Sharp opens with strength of schedule. Seven weeks in, who has played the easiest and hardest schedules, and who has the softest road the rest of the way? Then the Steelers backfield, Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle, in Browns at Steelers, and Parker Washington against the Colts' slot defense in Colts at Jaguars. Rich Hribar brings three props from Titans at Bengals, Colts at Jaguars and Bears at Seahawks, with the Jeffery Simmons trade in play. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Bills and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 40-16 lifetime on this show.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • Which teams have played the easiest and hardest schedules so far, and who has the easiest road from here
    • Why Jaylen Warren should get the lion's share of the Steelers backfield
    • How Parker Washington matches up with the Colts' slot defense
    • How the Jeffery Simmons trade changes Titans at Bengals and Bears at Seahawks
    • How Clay Martin's and Shawn Smith's crews call games, and Seattle's record with Smith
    • Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Week 8 best bets and player props: the preview
    00:53 Strength of schedule: who has had it easy, and who has it easy next
    07:56 Browns at Steelers: Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle
    12:47 Colts at Jaguars: Parker Washington and the Colts' slot defense
    19:06 Rich Hribar prop 1: Titans at Bengals
    22:29 Rich Hribar prop 2: Colts at Jaguars
    24:21 Rich Hribar prop 3: Bears at Seahawks
    27:49 The Week 8 referee report with Joe Gibbs
    28:11 Ravens at Bills: the referee crew
    31:55 Bears at Seahawks on Monday night: the referee crew
    36:56 Warren's best bet of the week: Chiefs at Broncos

    This weekend only: every Sharp college and NFL bet for $20 with code HALLOWEEN: https://sharp.football
    Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren
    Sharp's free strength of schedule tool: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/nfl-strength-of-schedule-tool/

    Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) with Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) and Joe Gibbs. New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
    Web: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

    21+ Play Responsibly | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds / lines subject to change

    Valid strictly for new accounts registered by legal U.S. residents aged 18 or older located in eligible states.

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    43 min
  3. NFL Week 8 Preview: Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Broncos and More

    Episode 524

    Show notes

    NFL Week 8 preview and matchups: Ravens at Bills, Vikings at Lions, Chiefs at Broncos and Falcons at Buccaneers. Lamar Jackson's return against a Bills defense giving up points, Jared Goff against the Brian Flores blitz, Bo Nix against Steve Spagnuolo and the numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Sam Darnold vs the Bears on Monday night and the Patriots passing game at Miami.

    Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jared Goff, Brian Flores, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles, Sam Darnold.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • Why the Ravens defense has not faced a real passing offense yet, and what happened the two times it did
    • How Josh Allen's downfield passing changes with D.J. Moore on the field
    • The Bills defense is allowing the most points per drive in the NFL, and what Lamar Jackson's return does to that
    • Derrick Henry's numbers with Lamar on the field and what Baltimore's offense looked like in his last half of football
    • Zay Flowers in the slot against a Buffalo defense that struggles with slot receivers
    • Brian Flores is blitzing at a rate the league has never seen, and how Jared Goff has handled the blitz this year versus last year's meetings
    • Why Jahmyr Gibbs keeps getting stuck in pass protection against Minnesota
    • Denver has played the hardest schedule of defenses in the NFL, and why the offense is still last in the league in four categories
    • How Bo Nix handled the Arizona blitz and the downfield throws he missed
    • Patrick Mahomes' Week 1 air yards against Denver and the Chiefs' passing game since
    • Kenneth Walker's 173 yards at Denver in Week 1 and whether the Broncos run defense has changed
    • Can Bijan Robinson run on Tampa Bay, and what Michael Penix does with a quick-release passing game
    • Baker Mayfield playing through a thumb injury against the Falcons pass defense
    • Sam Darnold against the Bears pass defense on Monday night, and the trades both teams just made
    • The Patriots passing game against a Miami defense that cannot cover tight ends

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Week 8: what you need to know
    00:56 MATCHUP 1: Josh Allen's Bills offense vs the Ravens defense
    08:09 Lamar Jackson's return: the Ravens offense vs the Bills defense
    14:35 Subscribe
    15:04 MATCHUP 2: Jared Goff vs the Brian Flores blitz
    22:09 Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Vikings
    27:29 Splash Sports: the $100K NFL Bloody Survivor
    28:25 MATCHUP 3: Sean Payton's Broncos offense vs Steve Spagnuolo
    33:43 Kenneth Walker vs the Broncos run defense
    39:14 MATCHUP 4: Can Bijan run? The Falcons offense vs the Bucs defense
    46:35 SNEAKY: Sam Darnold vs the Bears pass defense
    50:19 SNEAKY: The Patriots passing game vs the Dolphins
    52:56 Wrap

    SPLASH SPORTS NFL BLOODY SURVIVOR: $100,000 guaranteed. Pick two teams a week, both have to win straight up. Entries close Sunday November 1 at 1 PM ET. Code SHARP for a 50 percent deposit match: https://splashsports.com/sharp

    Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMhqcdkFEMw

    Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/

    Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
    Web: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    53 min
  4. NFL Week 7 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 523

    Show notes

    NFL Week 7 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Seattle took Kenneth Walker out of the game after he led the NFL in yards per carry, rushing yards, explosive rate and EPA through six weeks, and Kansas City became the only offense in the week that never reached the red zone. The Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn and the Jets, Baltimore keeps owning first halves and losing second halves, Cincinnati went from 0 first half points to 35 after the break, Sean Payton and Bo Nix beat Arizona with a quarterback as the leading rusher, the 49ers punted once in nine drives and still lost in Atlanta, Tampa Bay has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses in the league, and Houston punted six times against the Giants. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Cowboys at Eagles.

    Get the free newsletter, every article we write plus free bets and player props, at https://sharp.football. Newsletter subscribers see the Halloween sale first.

    Players and coaches discussed: Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Aaron Glenn, Malik Willis, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Declan Doyle, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Raheem Morris, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, J.J. McCarthy, DeMeco Ryans, Dak Prescott, Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley.

    What You'll Learn

    • Kenneth Walker through six weeks: 6.3 yards per carry, 665 rushing yards, a 14.2 percent explosive rate and +0.16 EPA per rush, all first in the NFL
    • What Seattle did differently: a light box on 57 percent of his runs instead of 20, an 8 plus man box on 21 percent instead of 48
    • Kansas City reached the red zone on 0 percent of its drives, scored 0.38 points per drive and gained a first down on 22 percent of its plays, all the lowest in the week
    • Patrick Mahomes saw two high on 61.8 percent of dropbacks, held the ball 3 plus seconds on 44.1 percent and posted the lowest accurate throw rate in the week, 78.8 percent
    • Seattle won on third down, 68.8 percent to 27.3, and is the first team since 1984 to hold its first seven opponents under 180 passing yards
    • Miami ran 39 first half plays to the Jets' 18, converted 94.7 percent of its series and averaged +0.81 EPA per dropback, the best first half mark in the week
    • Cincinnati's halves: 0 points and 3.1 yards per play before halftime, 35 points, 0.66 EPA per play and a 94.7 percent series conversion rate after it
    • Baltimore first halves this season: 118 points and a +65 margin, both first. Second halves: 44 points and a -70 margin, second worst and last
    • Bo Nix against the blitz in the first half: 3 of 8 for 9 yards, 0 percent success, -0.73 EPA per attempt
    • Denver threw 20 plus air yards on 33.3 percent of attempts, the most in the week, and Nix hit 4 of 13 throws past 5 yards downfield
    • The 49ers punted once on nine drives and still lost: two fumbles, a turnover on downs and two interceptions, four of them inside the Atlanta 30
    • Atlanta scored on 60 percent of its drives, the best in the week
    • Tampa Bay has faced the most difficult schedule of pass defenses in the NFL, five top 10 pass defenses in its last six games, and Atlanta is not one of them
    • The Giants ran 22 personnel on 22 snaps, the most in the week, and J.J. McCarthy averaged 14.8 yards per attempt in the first half, the best mark in the week
    • Houston's offense: 6 punts, the most in the week, 23.6 yards per drive and a first down on 22.2 percent of plays
    • Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro
    00:15 Kenneth Walker grounded
    05:30 Chiefs were dominated
    09:12 Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn
    12:35 Subscribe
    13:10 Ravens, first half vs second half
    21:09 Sean Payton and Bo Nix
    25:41 49ers at Falcons
    30:27 Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield's return
    34:14 DeMeco Ryans' defense
    38:06 Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis
    52:18 Wrap-up

    Watch the show on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis on YouTube

    Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

    Weekly, monthly and full season packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Guests: Curtis on Monday Night Football.

    Follow Us

    Warren Sharp on X: @SharpFootball
    Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    53 min
  5. (39-16, 71%) NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Player Props 2026: Chiefs-Seahawks, Packers-Lions

    Episode 522

    Show notes

    NFL Week 7 best bets, player props and picks for Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, Rams vs Raiders, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts vs Vikings, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, plus the Week 7 referee report and three big college football games.

    Warren Sharp opens with the Rams: 2-4 after the loss to Arizona, and without Davante Adams for months. What has to change against Las Vegas? Then Brian Flores, who pressures and blitzes like no one else, as Minnesota meets Daniel Jones and the Colts, and how Carolina should handle Todd Bowles' blitz in a big NFC South game. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn. Rich Hribar brings three props from Buccaneers at Panthers, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, and Warren shares his advice on betting through a slump. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Packers at Lions and Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-16 lifetime on this show.

    This week only: buy two weeks of Sharp All Access and get two weeks free with code SHOW40: https://sharp.football

    Watch the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucdD94UhgtQ

    Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com

    What You'll Learn

    • What the Rams have to change without Davante Adams
    • Why Brian Flores blitzes like no one else, and what it means for the Colts
    • How Carolina should attack Todd Bowles' blitz
    • What decides Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn
    • How the Week 7 referee crews call games, including John Hussey's record with home teams
    • How to bet through a slump
    • Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it

    Chapters

    00:00 Week 7 best bets and player props: the preview
    01:13 Rams vs Raiders: the Rams without Davante Adams
    08:19 Colts vs Vikings: Brian Flores and the blitz
    10:43 Buccaneers at Panthers: beating Todd Bowles' blitz
    13:18 College football with Ryan McCrystal
    13:39 Ole Miss at Texas
    18:15 Houston at Utah
    20:20 LSU at Auburn
    24:19 Rich Hribar prop 1: Buccaneers at Panthers
    28:27 Rich Hribar prop 2: Giants at Texans
    31:46 Rich Hribar prop 3: 49ers at Falcons
    36:29 The Week 7 referee report with Joe Gibbs
    37:05 Packers at Lions: the referee crew
    39:53 Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night: the referee crew
    45:19 Warren's best bet of the week: Rams vs Raiders

    Guests

    Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs

    More Resources

    Free Sharp Football newsletter with our written analysis and best bets: https://sharp.football
    Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucdD94UhgtQ

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball, @SharpFBAnalysis, @LordReebs

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    51 min
  6. NFL Week 7 Preview: Chiefs-Seahawks, Packers-Lions and More

    Episode 521

    Show notes

    NFL Week 7 preview and matchups: Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, 49ers at Falcons and Bengals at Ravens. Kenneth Walker's revenge game, Josh Jacobs' return and the run game numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Broncos vs Cardinals and Panthers vs Buccaneers.

    4 WEEKS FOR THE PRICE OF 2: use code SHOW40 at checkout on our monthly packages, every betting recommendation plus the fantasy side in one: https://sharp.football

    Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Steve Spagnuolo, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Gannon, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix Jr., Raheem Morris, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Mike Evans, Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley, Cam Jurgens, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Jaylen Waddle, Bryce Young, Todd Bowles.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • Why Kenneth Walker against his former team is the most important matchup of Week 7, and why neither the Chiefs run game nor the Seattle run defense has really been tested
    • The Seattle streak Walker could snap on Sunday night
    • Where Seattle is vulnerable to running backs in the passing game
    • Patrick Mahomes' only career game against Mike Macdonald
    • Sam Darnold's turnover problem and how Steve Spagnuolo's defense can force negative plays
    • What Zach Charbonnet's return can and can't fix in Seattle's backfield
    • What Jonathan Gannon did to Dallas, and his history against Jared Goff
    • How soft Detroit's schedule of defenses has been, and why Green Bay is its biggest test yet
    • What Josh Jacobs' return does to a Packers offense that has leaned on Jordan Love
    • Why Atlanta's first half against Chicago was a play-calling problem, and the outside zone battle with the 49ers
    • How the Falcons should use Bijan Robinson in the passing game against San Francisco
    • What the 49ers did on the ground in this matchup last year, and their passing game without Mike Evans
    • Derrick Henry, a reshuffled Ravens interior line and the Bengals' light boxes
    • Why Denver needs to push the ball downfield with Bo Nix against Arizona
    • Bryce Young against Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay blitz

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Week 7: what you need to know
    01:33 MATCHUP 1: Kenneth Walker vs the Seahawks run defense
    08:36 Mahomes vs Mike Macdonald
    09:27 How high is Seattle's floor?
    11:54 Sam Darnold vs the Chiefs defense
    15:47 Subscribe
    16:18 MATCHUP 2: Jonathan Gannon's Packers defense vs the Lions
    18:52 Jared Goff vs Jonathan Gannon
    21:44 Josh Jacobs returns: the Packers offense vs Detroit
    24:53 4 weeks for the price of 2: code SHOW40
    26:06 MATCHUP 3: Bijan Robinson vs the 49ers run defense
    30:56 Christian McCaffrey vs the Falcons run defense
    35:16 Rich's Worksheets
    35:59 MATCHUP 4: The Ravens run game vs the Bengals
    40:10 SNEAKY: Bo Nix vs the Cardinals defense
    43:37 SNEAKY: Bryce Young vs the Bucs blitz
    45:45 Wrap

    Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7d53eoM-1A

    Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/

    Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, Takeaways on Monday.

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
    Web: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    46 min
  7. NFL Week 6 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 520

    Show notes

    NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay. The Giants collapsed against the Saints, and Jalen Hurts' London numbers fell off a cliff after halftime on 36 hours without sleep, before the news that he is out for the season. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football with Curtis.

    Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up in 30 seconds at https://sharp.football

    Players and coaches discussed: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Rees, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Tomlin, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.

    What you'll learn

    • Atlanta's first half drives: two three and outs, a turnover on downs, one touchdown, one punt, and a 21 to 7 halftime deficit
    • The Falcons ran it 12 times, the fewest in the week, with a 16.7 percent explosive rush rate, the best in the week
    • Michael Penix was blitzed on 52.6 percent of dropbacks and sacked on 13.2 percent, both second worst, with a 31.6 percent bust rate, the worst
    • Bijan Robinson averaged 12.8 yards on 4 first half carries and the Falcons kept throwing
    • The Cowboys' first half early down runs averaged -0.37 EPA, the worst first half mark in the week, and Dallas threw 78 percent of its passes at 10 air yards or less, the most in the week
    • 97 delay of game penalties through six weeks, the previous high was 75, and offenses have committed 690 flags, the most through Week 6 since at least 2000
    • Offensive holding is up 58 percent since 2022
    • The Steelers threw on first and goal and third and goal with 1:38 left and two Tampa Bay timeouts on the board
    • Pittsburgh's first half was the worst in the week by EPA per play and EPA per dropback
    • The Giants' catastrophe against New Orleans
    • Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and what 36 hours without sleep did to his London numbers: 69 to 42 percent completions, +0.38 to -0.32 EPA per attempt, 7.6 to 4.1 yards per attempt
    • Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro
    00:45 Atlanta's failure to launch
    08:43 Cowboys issues
    12:58 Penalties are out of control
    18:16 Subscribe
    18:42 Steelers end of game clock management
    23:44 Giant catastrophe
    27:57 Jalen Hurts, 36 hours with no sleep
    32:21 Free newsletter
    32:53 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis
    44:26 Wrap-up and a look at Week 7

    Free NFL stats tools: Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

    Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Guests: Curtis Hirsch

    Follow Us

    YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootballAnalysis
    X: @SharpFootball
    Site: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    46 min
  8. (39-15, 72%) NFL Week 6 Best Bets & Player Props 2026: Cowboys-Packers, Bears-Falcons

    Episode 519

    Show notes

    NFL Week 6 best bets, player props and picks for Cowboys at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Texans at Jaguars in London, Cardinals at Rams and Steelers at Buccaneers, plus the Week 6 referee report and three big college football games.

    Warren Sharp opens with three keys to the Week 6 betting board: the Green Bay defense facing Dallas, the first half angle on short road favorites, and Houston in London. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana. Rich Hribar brings three props, two from Cardinals at Rams and one from Steelers at Buccaneers. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Browns and Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-15 lifetime on this show.

    Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com

    What You'll Learn

    • Why Green Bay's defensive numbers need context, and the schedule behind them
    • The first half angle on short road favorites
    • How Houston should attack Jacksonville in London
    • What decides Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana
    • How the Week 6 referee crews call games, and which teams it helps
    • Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
    • The free pass rate over expected and stats tools on the Sharp site

    Chapters

    00:00 Week 6 best bets and player props: the preview
    01:07 Cowboys at Packers: Green Bay's backup QB schedule
    06:05 Short road favorites: the first half angle
    07:26 Texans at Jaguars in London
    11:56 College football with Ryan McCrystal
    12:19 Alabama at Tennessee
    14:42 Notre Dame at BYU
    18:22 Ohio State at Indiana
    22:50 Rich Hribar prop 1: Cardinals at Rams
    25:58 Rich Hribar prop 2: Cardinals at Rams
    30:02 Rich Hribar prop 3: Steelers at Buccaneers
    32:44 Pass rate over expected and the free stats tools
    34:50 The Week 6 referee report with Joe Gibbs
    35:25 Ravens at Browns: the referee crew
    38:07 Cowboys at Packers on Sunday night: the referee crew
    41:51 Warren's best bet of the week: Bears at Falcons

    Guests

    Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs

    More Resources

    Free Sharp Football newsletter with our written analysis and best bets: https://sharp.football
    Watch the show on YouTube: Warren Sharp

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball, @SharpFBAnalysis, @LordReebs

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    49 min
  9. NFL Week 6 Preview: Cowboys-Packers, Bears-Falcons and More

    Episode 518

    Show notes

    NFL Week 6 preview and matchups: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football, Bears at Falcons, Texans vs Jaguars in London and Steelers at Buccaneers. The pressure rates, personnel splits, run game numbers and coverages that decide each game, plus two sneaky matchups: 49ers at Commanders and Saints at Giants.

    Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Tucker Kraft, Dak Prescott, Bijan Robinson, Montez Sweat, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Bowles, Brock Purdy, Cam Skattebo.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • How Green Bay stopped getting Jordan Love hit, and the personnel and play action change behind it
    • Why the way Dallas defends heavy sets plays right into the Packers' hands
    • Why the Cowboys offense is the biggest test the Green Bay defense has seen all year
    • How bad the Bears run defense really is once you look at who it has faced, and what Bijan Robinson does on outside zone
    • What happens to Chicago's run defense when Montez Sweat is off the field
    • Caleb Williams inside the pocket vs outside it, and why Atlanta wants him to drop back
    • The run game mismatch in London: Houston's ground game against a Jacksonville front that has not been tested
    • Why the Jaguars are a pass funnel, and what that opens up for C.J. Stroud
    • Aaron Rodgers against Todd Bowles: the quick game, the blitz and the coverage he has struggled with
    • Brock Purdy against base defense, and why Washington plays so much of it
    • The one run concept the Saints shut down, and why the Giants run it so often

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Week 6: what you need to know
    00:46 MATCHUP 1: Jordan Love vs the Cowboys defense
    03:49 How Green Bay fixed the protection
    07:27 The Cowboys offense vs Green Bay
    08:57 Subscribe
    09:19 MATCHUP 2: Bijan Robinson vs the Bears run defense
    14:20 Montez Sweat on and off the field
    16:03 Caleb Williams and the Bears offense
    19:17 MATCHUP 3: Texans run game vs the Jaguars, London
    26:39 Rich's Worksheets
    27:34 MATCHUP 4: Aaron Rodgers vs Todd Bowles
    31:12 Tampa Bay's Cover 3 and Rodgers
    33:11 SNEAKY: Brock Purdy vs Washington's base defense
    35:27 SNEAKY: Giants run game vs the Saints
    38:22 Wrap

    Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vGRyoc6V2A

    Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/

    Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
    Web: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    39 min
  10. NFL Week 5 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 517

    Show notes

    NFL Week 5 takeaways from the numbers. The Seahawks handed the 49ers all three touchdowns on turnovers and still finished last in the week in EPA per play, the Commanders led 12 to 3 at the half and let the Giants run the best second half of any offense, the Chargers offense broke in Denver and the Broncos won anyway, the Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz for four quarters, and LaFleur finally threw over the loaded box. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football, Rams at Bills, with Curtis.

    Get the free newsletter, every article plus free bets and player props: https://sharp.football

    What You'll Learn

    • Seattle gave up three touchdowns off turnovers and ranked last in EPA per play, series conversion and plays per drive
    • The Seahawks' early down runs produced -0.66 EPA per rush, the worst in the week, with a 13.8 percent drop rate, the highest
    • The Giants went from a 20 percent first half success rate, worst in the week, to 61.5 percent in the second half, the best
    • Washington's coverage flipped at halftime: man coverage from 22 to 43 percent, two high from 50 to 18 percent, and Jameis Winston went +0.67 EPA per attempt with three touchdowns
    • Jayden Daniels was blitzed on 73.3 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate any quarterback faced
    • Harbaugh's Chargers used two back sets on 41.3 percent of snaps, the most in the week, and Justin Herbert's sack plus interception rate was 21.4 percent, the highest
    • Denver ranked last in third down conversion and pass success rate and won
    • Cleveland lined up in shotgun on 96.9 percent of snaps against a 56.1 percent blitz rate and took 8 sacks
    • Green Bay saw 7 or more in the box on 89.8 percent of snaps and Jordan Love averaged 11.8 yards per attempt over it
    • Chicago turned it over on 41.7 percent of drives with backup quarterbacks, and what the last three weeks say about Caleb Williams
    • The Steelers put 8 in the box on 75 percent of Colts runs against a 39 percent league average
    • Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro
    00:20 Seahawks gave away the game
    05:19 Commanders defense let down again
    11:13 Herbert and a broken Chargers offense
    15:57 The Broncos won with the worst offense of the week
    18:43 Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz
    21:43 Subscribe
    22:22 LaFleur finally gets it
    24:57 The Bears gave it away, and need Caleb Williams back
    28:58 Texans step up in London
    31:20 Steelers did not respect Daniel Jones
    33:24 The free newsletter
    34:28 Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis
    46:44 Wrap-up

    Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bahxb0Z9IZ4

    More Resources

    Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/
    Weekly, monthly and full season packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

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    47 min
  11. NFL Week 5 Best Bets & Player Props (39-14, 74%)

    Episode 516

    Show notes

    NFL Week 5 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. It starts with three keys that decide how you bet the weekend: Sam Darnold against a 49ers defense that takes away the middle of the field, the Bengals possibly without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and why that might help Chase Brown against a Dolphins run defense with a split, and the Bears running outside zone at a Packers defense that cannot stop it. Then Ryan McCrystal on Alabama at Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas and UCLA at Oregon, Rich Hribar with three props including Monday night, Joe Gibbs on the referees for Lions at Cardinals, Ravens at Falcons and Bills at Rams, and the best bet of the week to close.

    $5 for all of our Week 5 NFL picks with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football
    Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN.
    Watch the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlVpbB-tBa0

    00:00 What is on the show this week
    01:17 Who wins the middle of the field
    05:41 Could losing the receivers help Chase Brown?
    09:12 Outside zone against Green Bay
    12:58 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
    23:50 $5 for Week 5 with code WEEK5
    24:45 Rich Hribar's three props
    31:55 Joe Gibbs on the Week 5 referees
    41:57 OddsJam
    42:37 Best bet of the week
    50:05 Good luck this weekend

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    50 min
  12. NFL Week 5 Preview: 49ers-Seahawks, Eagles-Jaguars and More

    Episode 515

    Show notes

    NFL Week 5 matchups, stats and betting angles: 49ers at Seahawks, Eagles vs Jaguars in London, Colts at Steelers, Raiders at Patriots. The coverages, pressure rates and personnel splits that decide each game, plus two sneaky games: Bears at Packers and Vikings at Saints.

    This week only: every pick, every prop and every Worksheet for $5 with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football

    Brock Purdy, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Nick Bosa, Raheem Morris, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan Love, Tyler Shough, Brian Flores.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • Why Mike Macdonald's defense is the one Brock Purdy has never solved, and the two coverages it comes down to
    • What the 49ers pass rush turns into without Nick Bosa, and how Raheem Morris is coaching around it
    • Why Sam Darnold is about to see exactly what he is worst against
    • The reason the Eagles do not want to throw, and why they cannot run either
    • What Jacksonville does to teams in the first half, and what Philadelphia does in the second
    • The coverage every defense is now playing against Aaron Rodgers, and whether Indianapolis will follow
    • Where the Colts pass defense is open, and the Steelers receiver who lives there
    • What Drake Maye cleaned up last week, and the problem that did not go away
    • Why nobody in New England is making yards for him
    • How Green Bay fixed Jordan Love, and why Chicago is built the same way
    • What Brian Flores does to rookie quarterbacks, and what Tyler Shough does when blitzed

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Cold open: Week 5, what you need to know
    01:24 MATCHUP 1: Brock Purdy vs Mike Macdonald's defense
    05:44 Sam Darnold vs the 49ers defense without Bosa
    11:32 Subscribe
    12:14 MATCHUP 2: Eagles offense vs Jaguars defense, London
    20:36 $5 for every pick and every Worksheet, code WEEK5
    21:46 MATCHUP 3: Aaron Rodgers vs the Colts defense
    27:15 The Worksheet
    27:41 MATCHUP 4: Drake Maye vs the Raiders defense
    33:36 SNEAKY: the Packers' fix, and the Bears
    37:04 SNEAKY: Tyler Shough vs Brian Flores
    40:51 Wrap

    Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@WarrenSharp

    Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/

    Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball • @LordReebs • @SharpFBAnalysis
    Web: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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    41 min
  13. NFL Week 4 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 514

    Show notes

    NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • 17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005
    • Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penalties
    • How Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second half
    • Dallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number one
    • Jalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completion
    • Rams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won it
    • The Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completions
    • Bo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the line
    • The new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected tool
    • Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likes

    CHAPTERS
    00:00 Intro
    00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags
    08:27 Subscribe
    09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them
    12:32 The Cowboys second half offense
    15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars
    15:53 Eagles offense still broken
    18:14 Rams played left handed and won
    20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy
    23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing?
    28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis
    31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool
    38:23 Wrap-up

    GET THE FREE NEWSLETTER
    Every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up in 30 seconds at https://sharp.football

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    Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/

    GET THE FULL SLATE
    Weekly, monthly and full season packages are available now at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

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    39 min
  14. (39-13, 75%) NFL Week 4 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    Episode 513

    Show notes

    NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close.

    50% off any season long or monthly package with code SHOW50: https://sharp.football

    Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
    • Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet
    • The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it
    • Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured
    • Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number
    • How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps

    CHAPTERS
    00:00 What is on the show this week
    01:39 Why this show is more than the bets
    02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him
    05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling
    11:04 Trevor versus time
    14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
    23:14 50% off with code SHOW50
    24:20 Rich Hribar's three props
    34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees
    42:50 OddsJam
    43:19 Best bet of the week
    52:14 Back on Monday

    Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7s695JYfdg

    PROMO CODES
    SHOW50 for 50% off any season long or monthly betting package at https://sharp.football
    WARREN at OddsJam for a free week trial and 40% off the first month: https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren

    GUESTS
    Ryan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football Analysis
    Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis
    Joe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis

    MORE RESOURCES
    Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
    Betting packages: https://sharp.football

    Follow Us

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    53 min
  15. NFL Week 4 Matchups: What You Need to Know Before Kickoff

    Episode 512

    Show notes

    Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about.

    WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

    • Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built on
    • The coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meeting
    • Where Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere else
    • The one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchup
    • What happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get home
    • The Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to it
    • What Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apart
    • The change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack it
    • What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
    • The play action split that should decide Chiefs at Raiders
    • Why the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building

    50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at https://sharp.football

    CHAPTERS
    00:00 Cold open
    00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead
    00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense
    10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced
    13:53 Subscribe
    14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense
    19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced
    22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW50
    23:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense
    25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint
    30:25 The Worksheet
    31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott
    35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
    37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs
    40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert
    42:36 Wrap

    Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at sharpfootballanalysis.com

    New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

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    43 min
  16. NFL Week 3 Takeaways and Monday Night Football Best Bets

    Episode 511

    Show notes

    NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis.

    What You'll Learn

    • Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance
    • Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs
    • How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost
    • The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception
    • Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go
    • Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times
    • Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate
    • Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week
    • How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost
    • Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns
    • Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone
    • Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching

    Chapters

    00:00 Intro
    00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore
    03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage
    07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover?
    12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record
    13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime
    13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran
    15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense?
    20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle
    23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage
    25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis
    33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter
    34:39 Wrap-up

    Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTi_Vlrn9kI

    Get the free newsletter: every article we write, plus free bets and player props, sent straight to your inbox. Sign up at https://sharp.football

    Get the full slate: weekly, monthly and full season packages at https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Guests: Curtis Hirsch

    Follow Us

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    35 min
  17. (38-13, 75% Lifetime) NFL Week 3 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    Episode 510

    Show notes

    NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees.

    It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown this season, against a Washington defense that blitzes. The Cleveland Browns, who have played the two toughest run defenses in the league and now get one of the softest. And Drake Maye going to Jacksonville, into the coverage that keeps finding him.

    45% off the season: the computer totals are back, and code SHOW45 takes 45% off any full season betting package. 70% on computer total recommendations historically over the last six seasons, and 739-431 since 2006, a 63% win rate. https://sharp.football

    Games covered: Ole Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon, Texas at Tennessee, Chargers at Bills, Seahawks at Commanders, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jaguars, Jets at Lions, Titans at Giants, Chiefs at Dolphins, Texans at Colts, Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football and Eagles at Bears on Monday Night Football.

    WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

    • Why the Chargers are number two in the NFL against early down runs and still in trouble in Buffalo
    • The play action and two high mismatch that Buffalo does not have to work to create
    • Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s blitz usage and what Washington’s blitz rate does to it
    • Why Cleveland’s whole offensive profile has been a strength of schedule story, and what changes this week
    • The coverage Drake Maye keeps seeing, and who plays it most in the NFL
    • Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games, including the one data point he trusts this early in the season
    • Rich Hribar’s three Week 3 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders
    • The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs’ three picks, including a crew the Broncos are 1-6 with at home
    • Warren’s Week 3 best bet, plus one more bet on a second game

    CHAPTERS

    00:00 Warren’s best bets record and today’s show
    01:33 Chargers at Bills
    05:11 Seahawks at Commanders
    08:21 Browns at Panthers
    13:26 Patriots at Jaguars
    16:06 College football with Ryan McCrystal
    16:24 Ole Miss at Florida
    18:53 USC at Oregon
    20:42 Texas at Tennessee
    24:46 45% off the season with code SHOW45
    25:57 Rich Hribar prop 1: Jets at Lions
    29:35 Prop 2: Titans at Giants
    33:04 Prop 3: Chiefs at Dolphins
    36:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs
    37:10 Texans at Colts
    38:51 Rams at Broncos, Sunday Night Football
    41:00 Eagles at Bears, Monday Night Football
    42:41 OddsJam, code WARREN
    43:11 Warren’s best bet of the week
    47:43 One more bet
    50:04 Wrap-up

    Watch the video version on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis

    PROMO CODES
    SHOW45: 45% off any full season betting package at https://sharp.football
    OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com

    GUESTS
    Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs
    Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football
    Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis
    Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball

    MORE RESOURCES
    The Worksheet
    The 2026 Football Preview book
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    50 min
  18. NFL Week 3 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games

    Episode 509

    Show notes

    Four matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 3: the Bills offense against the Chargers defense, Joe Burrow against the Steelers pass rush, the Ravens offense against the Cowboys defense in Brazil, and the Rams offense against the Broncos defense on Sunday night.

    45% off the rest of the season. The computer totals start this week, a 70% win rate over the last six seasons. Use code SHOW45 at https://sharp.football, which comes out around 50 dollars a week for props, sides, totals, teasers, derivatives and the computer totals.

    Players discussed: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Ronnie Stanley, Caleb Downs, Malik Hooker, Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, Patrick Surtain II, Terrance Ferguson, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield.

    What you will learn

    • Why the Chargers schedule gets far harder starting this week
    • What Buffalo changed on offense and why the numbers say it is real
    • How Pittsburgh's pass rush attacks a quick passing game
    • Why Joe Burrow has barely played the Steelers in three seasons
    • What the Cowboys injuries in the secondary mean against Lamar Jackson
    • How the Saints slowed Baltimore in the second half, and whether Dallas can copy it
    • What the Rams do without Puka Nacua, and why it points at the run game
    • Two under the radar matchups for Sunday

    Chapters

    00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show
    00:29 Four matchups this week
    01:06 Matchup 1: Bills offense vs Chargers defense
    04:09 Josh Allen is pushing it downfield
    05:06 The Chargers defense through two weeks
    07:45 Are you subscribed?
    08:19 Matchup 2: Joe Burrow vs the Steelers defense
    10:13 Burrow's quick game vs Pittsburgh's pass rush
    13:52 Burrow has barely played the Steelers
    14:49 The computer totals are back
    16:09 Matchup 3: Ravens offense vs Cowboys defense
    18:39 Who the Cowboys are missing
    20:55 Lamar Jackson with a clean pocket
    23:54 How the Saints slowed Lamar
    26:07 The Worksheet: every game, every week
    26:49 Matchup 4: Rams offense vs Broncos defense
    28:22 Davante Adams without Puka Nacua
    30:54 The Rams run game vs Denver
    32:39 Sneaky matchup: Panthers at Browns
    36:00 Sneaky matchup: Baker Mayfield vs Brian Flores
    38:16 See you next week

    The Worksheet, a full preview of every single game every week written by Rich Hribar, is included with the fantasy packages: the worksheet.

    All packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/l7rPe4OwrS4

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball
    X: @LordReebs

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    39 min
  19. (37-13, 74% Lifetime) NFL Week 2 Best Bets & Player Props 2026

    Episode 508

    Show notes

    NFL Week 2 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus the biggest college football game of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 37-13 (74%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 2 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss and Joe Gibbs on the Week 2 referees.

    It starts with three things from Week 1 that change how you bet Week 2. Houston's revamped offense and what it does to opponent play volume against the Bengals. Tampa's blitz rate against a Cleveland offense that cannot get the ball out. And the Eagles, a league low on first down and a win anyway, now on the road in Tennessee.

    Two weeks free: code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus monthly package gets you a full month of Warren's NFL recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. https://sharp.football

    Games covered: LSU at Ole Miss, Bengals at Texans, Jaguars at Broncos, Saints at Ravens, Browns at Buccaneers and Giants at Rams on Monday Night Football.

    WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
    How Houston's offense changed its intent in Week 1 and why opponent play volume is the number to watch
    Why Tampa's blitz rate against a slow time to throw is the mismatch of the week
    Why the Eagles offense is a problem even in a win, and what the first down and play action numbers say
    Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss, the doubtful quarterback, and why the line has barely moved
    Rich Hribar's three Week 2 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders
    The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs' three picks, including the best home field referee in the league
    Warren's Week 2 best bet and a scheduling angle that has only happened four times since 1990

    CHAPTERS
    00:00 Warren's best bets record and today's show
    01:10 Houston's revamped offense and opponent play volume
    04:02 Tampa's pressure against Cleveland
    08:31 What is going on with the Eagles offense
    11:39 College football with Ryan McCrystal
    12:06 LSU at Ole Miss
    20:51 Two weeks free with code SHOW35
    22:12 Rich Hribar prop 1: Saints at Ravens
    25:04 Prop 2: Jaguars at Broncos
    30:44 Prop 3: Jaguars at Broncos
    32:43 The ref report with Joe Gibbs
    33:20 Bengals at Texans
    35:21 Jaguars at Broncos
    37:05 Giants at Rams, Monday Night Football
    39:29 OddsJam, code WARREN
    40:10 Warren's best bet of the week
    47:59 Wrap-up

    PROMO CODES
    SHOW35: two weeks free on the NFL Plus monthly package at https://sharp.football
    OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, https://oddsjam.com/nfl/screen/moneyline?promo=warren

    GUESTS
    Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs
    Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football
    Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis
    Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball

    MORE RESOURCES
    The Worksheet: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/
    The 2026 Football Preview book: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-book-nfl-football-preview/
    All packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Follow us: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootballAnalysis and https://x.com/SharpFootball

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    48 min
  20. NFL Week 2 Preview: The Matchups That Decide the Big Games

    Episode 507

    Show notes

    Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 2: the Bears offense against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, the Steelers offense against the Patriots defense, and Dak Prescott against the Commanders pass defense.

    Buy two weeks, get two weeks free. A full month of NFL betting recommendations plus Rich Hribar's breakdown of every game for the price of two weeks. Use code SHOW35 on the NFL Plus Monthly package at https://sharp.football.

    Players discussed: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Carson Wentz, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Jadarian Price, Drew Lock, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Cam Ward.

    What you will learn

    • How Brian Flores has blitzed Caleb Williams in all four meetings
    • The shotgun vs under center split that could decide Bears at Vikings
    • What the Vikings offense looks like with Carson Wentz
    • How much the Steelers offense changed with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy
    • Why the Steelers backfield split could tighten toward Jaylen Warren
    • Why Dak Prescott's Week 1 was not all on Dak, and what he does against the blitz
    • Two under the radar matchups for Sunday

    Chapters

    00:00 Welcome to the Matchup Show
    00:36 Matchup 1: Bears offense vs Vikings defense
    05:08 Shotgun or under center: how the Bears beat Flores
    09:25 Three shows every week
    10:03 The Vikings offense with Carson Wentz
    12:48 Matchup 2: Steelers offense vs Patriots defense
    15:09 Aaron Rodgers and the new Steelers offense
    17:26 Can Pittsburgh run on New England
    19:43 Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle
    21:37 Matchup 3: Dak Prescott vs Commanders pass defense
    23:32 Dak vs the blitz and Dan Quinn
    26:39 The Cowboys defense problem
    30:24 The Worksheet: every game, every week
    31:05 Sneaky important matchups
    31:40 Rich's pick: Ravens run game vs the Saints
    34:14 Warren's pick: Eagles defense vs Titans offense
    36:52 See you next week

    The Worksheet, a full preview of every single game every week written by Rich Hribar, is included with the fantasy packages: the worksheet.

    All packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

    Follow Us

    X: @SharpFootball
    X: @LordReebs

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    37 min

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