Simply Put

The AI buildout is becoming increasingly financed by opaque, off-balance sheet partnerships like the Blue Owl and Meta venture “Beignet” that supplement already-surging corporate debt issuance. Given the estimated $9 trillion that will be spent on AI infrastructure between 2025 and 2032, revenue would need to exceed 8% of GDP to give investors modest returns. In this episode, we talk with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Columbia University, about projecting AI investment over the next decade, why it’s moving off-balance sheet, and the emerging sources of systemic risk.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Market participants are growing increasingly worried that ballooning debt levels and high interest rates could precipitate a fiscal crisis in the US. Total federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion and the government’s annual debt service payments exceed $1 trillion. Last month’s selloff in French sovereign debt shows how a sudden shift in perceived credibility can lead to a negative feedback loop of higher rates and wider deficits. In this episode, we talk with Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, about assessing the sustainability of federal debt, how a fiscal crisis could unfold, and what bond yields are saying about expectations for a balanced budget.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Hedge funds have absorbed much of the recent surge in Treasury issuance and now own a larger share of the market than domestic private banks. Unlike other market actors that are less price sensitive and hold the securities to maturity, hedge funds engage in highly leveraged trades over short time horizons that, in turn, exacerbate episodes of bond market volatility. With Fed officials hoping to reduce their footprint in the Treasury market, policymakers could have a limited toolkit to mitigate any market dislocations during the next crisis. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Wallen, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, about how hedge funds’ rising share of the Treasury market increases market fragility.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The prosperity promised by railroads in the 1800s caused unprecedented investment in the United States that eventually led to the Panic of 1873, the steepest downturn in the US up to that point. The amount of capital being spent on AI today has some wondering if we are likewise in the midst of a bubble about to burst. But as the American experience with railroads shows, a technology can live up to all its hype and still cause a messy and painful adjustment along the way. In this episode, we talk with Robin Wigglesworth, editor of the FT’s Alphaville blog, about the frenzied investment that financed 19th century railroads, the amount of debt being issued by AI firms, and what the railroad boom (and bust) can teach us about the AI buildout’s potential winners and losers.

For a chance to obtain a FREE copy of Robin’s new book, A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World, email simplyput@fhnfinancial.com with your name and address by September 25.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

As the pandemic-era shocks of federal stimulus and domestic migration fade, some states are looking for new taxes to increase revenue while others consider tax cuts to address affordability concerns. Proposed reforms for property taxes in Florida, income taxes in Illinois, and a wealth tax in California show how the differences in states’ tax environments are widening even further. In this episode, we talk with Katherine Loughead, Vice President of State Tax Policy at the Tax Foundation, about states’ fiscal positions in the post-pandemic economy, three significant changes to state taxes that could be in the pipeline, and rules of thumb for ideal tax policy design.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The recent increase in Treasury’s buyback operations will remove long-term USTs from the market using new short-term debt or cash from the Treasury General Account. Secretary Bessent believes the buybacks will help bring long-term yields closer to what he deems fundamentals. The move comes weeks after Treasury officials intervened to support the yen, in part from worries that Japan would otherwise sell Treasuries to buy up its currency. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Brad Setser, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about what motivated the increase in Treasury’s buyback operations, why the US helped strengthen the yen, and whether these interventions will have lasting impacts on the Treasury market.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The speed and magnitude of AI implementation at the firm level will help determine its overall impact on growth, productivity, and employment. Survey evidence shows CFOs’ approach to AI integration varies based on how they assess the risks and potential benefits of the innovative technology. In this episode, we talk with John Graham, Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, about what’s driving CFOs’ decisions on AI spend, the impact on productivity and employment thus far, and parallels with the late-1990s desktop computer revolution.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh’s desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this episode, we talk with Narayana Kocherlakota, former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, about how the Fed approached communication through the GFC, the process for reforming FOMC procedures, and the optimal balance between monetary policy flexibility and guidance.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Regardless of the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability, past price increases have had a lasting impression on households and businesses after five years of above-target inflation. People’s experiences arguably shape inflation expectations — and the path of future inflation — more than perceptions of the Fed’s resolve. If FOMC participants over-emphasize point estimates of inflation expectations, they risk overlooking the long-term costs of every month where inflation runs above 2%. In this episode, we talk with the University of California’s Ulrike Malmendier and the University of Chicago’s Stefan Nagel about how lifetime experiences shape economic expectations, the scarring impacts of the pandemic economy, and the implications for Fed policy.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Even as Artificial Intelligence enhances productivity, it is also increasing cybersecurity vulnerabilities across the financial industry. New technologies like Anthropic’s Mythos add to bad actors’ abilities to disrupt the financial sector through fraud and Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks. Amid these risks, individuals, institutions, and governments have tools available to limit the significant costs from cyberattacks. In this episode, we talk with Teresa Walsh, CEO and Founder of Integrated Intelligence Solutions, about how AI is empowering nefarious actors, the direct and indirect costs of cyberattacks, and how individuals and institutions can best protect themselves.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The cost of shipping insurance in the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the last four months. Even after the US and Iran lifted their mutual blockade last week, insurers and ship operators are wary of safety in the narrow passageway and the stability of any agreement. The protracted riskiness will delay energy market normalization and push up the cost of oil transportation. In this episode, we talk with Michelle Bockmann, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst with Windward, about how the shipping insurance market prices war risk and how insurers view the fragile US-Iran peace agreement.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and a liquidity premium, however, making them imprecise gauges of estimates for future inflation. In this episode, we talk with Mike Ashton, Managing Principal at Enduring Investments, about how TIPS and swaps compensate investors for inflation, how closely they reflect inflation expectations, and what they tell us about expectations for the War in Iran.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilizer and crops take months to grow, the higher costs may not be fully passed on to consumers until the spring of 2027. Agricultural production will be a bellwether as the Fed waits to see the second-order effects of higher oil prices on broader consumer inflation. In this episode, we talk with Alexis Maxwell, Senior Analyst for Fertilizer with Bloomberg Intelligence, about how the war in Iran is increasing costs for agricultural production, farmers’ alternatives to conventional fertilizer, and the energy shock’s delayed impact on consumer food prices.

Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what’s driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.

Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking labor force. Meanwhile, Fed officials have become remarkably sanguine amid near-zero job growth, convinced the labor market remains curiously in balance because of changes in the labor supply. In this episode, we talk with Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, about the abrupt slowdown in US population growth, what it means for breakeven job growth, and how current trends will impact future interest rates.

The Fed’s balance sheet has swelled from $900 billion in 2008 to just under $7 trillion in April 2026. Policymakers bought up securities to support the economy during the global financial crisis and pandemic, but critics allege the enormous balance sheet boosts inflation and distorts financial markets. If Kevin Warsh tries to reduce the Fed’s holdings as Chair, he must contend with the existing regulatory environment and the Fed’s ample reserves regime. In this episode, we talk with Jeff Lacker, the former President of the Richmond Fed from 2004-2017, about the theory behind central bank asset purchases, the costs and benefits of QE, and how a Kevin Warsh-led Fed could shrink the balance sheet.

The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the war serviced a fifth of global oil supply. As countries search for workarounds to plug the shortfall, a spike in global commodity prices has reinvigorated inflation worries, prompted expectations for central bank tightening, and weighed on global growth sentiment. The path of US inflation this year will depend on the pass-through to consumers and whether the Strait sustainably reopens. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with geopolitical analyst Rachel Ziemba about the Strait of Hormuz’s role in global commodity markets, how higher raw material costs affect consumer prices, and what it will take to normalize traffic in the Strait.

Private credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation from retail investors and banks has increased the sector’s interconnectedness with the wider financial system, making investors worried that a wave of redemption requests could lead to a cascade of tighter financial conditions and slower economic growth. In this episode, we talk with Fabio Natalucci, Managing Director at the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics, about the conditions that caused the rise of private credit, what’s behind its recent distress, and the sector’s biggest vulnerabilities.

AI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history suggests full technological implementation can take decades and some industries could still struggle to become more productive. As policymakers consider the impacts of profound technological change, they’ll have to confront difficulties measuring productivity in real-time. In this episode, we talk with Chad Syverson, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, about the sectors seemingly immune to productivity growth, how quickly innovations can increase productivity, and AI’s potential impacts on inflation and interest rates.

As investment into Artificial Intelligence continues to grow, construction of AI data centers is significantly increasing the demand for electricity, water, and land use across the country. These centers can require the same amount of water as a fifty-thousand-person town and could represent 12% of overall US electricity consumption in the coming years. Inflexible supply creates the risk of rapid price increases while private and public sector leaders work to meet the growing demand. In this episode, we talk with Joe Kane, Fellow at the Brookings Institution, about why these AI data centers are so resource-intensive, their impact on local infrastructure, and the bottlenecks limiting quicker supply adjustments.