Still Counting

In this bonus episode, Clare, Nate, and Galen take a last look at FLIPR’s midterm forecast and the latest New York Times/Siena University polls—both of which show Democrats with a lot of momentum heading into Election Day. They also unpack Haley Stevens’ eleventh-hour endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, and ballot-stacking in Alaska before sharing their final midterm predictions.

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With Election Day less than a week away, Galen, Clare, and Nate answer your burning questions and unpack what the latest New York Times/Siena poll reveals about South Carolina’s Senate race, whether pollsters are herding, and how to interpret the numbers in the final stretch. They also dig into what early voting data can—and can’t—tell us about voter turnout and the broader electorate.

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Nate, Galen, and Clare dive into the latest midterms numbers, including FLIPR’s updated forecast giving Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate and the final Times/Siena national poll of the election, which finds Trump’s approval rating at a new low. They also discuss concerns about polling accuracy after a firm admits to faking its data, and the problems that raises for pollsters, candidates, and the country. Then, they take a look at the issues Democrats and Republicans are focusing on as seen through their political ads and analyze what that tells us about the state of the midterms and what campaigns are hearing internally from voters.

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Clare, Nate, and Galen check the latest in the FLIPR midterms forecast and discuss whether the election has solidified, or if Republicans can mount a last ditch recovery. Then, in “Do You Buy It?” they put conventional wisdom to the test, unpacking the latest midterms headlines and examining whether the assumptions behind the stories actually hold up. They close by answering audience questions about the Epstein files’ impact on the midterms and whether a 20th century midterms election offers parallels to the current one.

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You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Galen, Clare, and Nate check the latest FLIPR forecasts for the House and Senate before discussing the closer than expected Senate race in Minnesota. Then it’s time for the first-ever Still Counting Draft! The hosts make their picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, including frontrunners like AOC and Gavin Newsom. They also talk about the reason for doing a draft now and after the midterms and Nate explains why there are only two good candidate options.

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Nate, Galen, and Clare break down the latest midterm polling in some of the most competitive congressional contests and Democrats’ continued edge. In Maine, they discuss the NYT/Siena numbers and what Senator Susan Collins’ lead over Troy Jackson in that poll indicates about the race. In Ohio, they unpack what Republican Senator Jon Husted’s low name recognition means for his unusual matchup against Sherrod Brown. And in Alaska, they zoom out on the discourse around Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her alleged mistreatment of staffers.

You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

On today’s episode, Galen, Clare, and Nate take a closer look at the latest midterms polling, where the data could be wrong, the likelihood for errors, and whether the apparent blue-wave story is as convincing as it looks. Then, they stress-test the case for and against the polls, examining both the bull and bear cases for believing the numbers.

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On today’s show, Nate, Clare, and Galen dig into new polling suggesting Democrats are in a stronger position than ever heading into the midterms. Then, they turn to the latest issue making its way into the political debate: AI. What do the polls tell us about how Americans really feel about AI safety—and will it matter in November?

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Nate, Clare, and Galen discuss the most competitive Senate races heading into the midterms, preview the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, take the temperature on Trump’s support within the Republican coalition, and reflect on how the political mood has changed in the year since Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

In this preview episode, Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke discuss what they’ve been up to since the end of FiveThirtyEight, why they are turning the mics back on, and how politics and media have changed since they last had a show together. Then, they pick the most important numbers in American politics over the last five years.

The first official episode of Still Counting releases Wednesday, September 9th with new episodes out every Wednesday evening. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and follow us on YouTube @stillcountingpodcast.

Each week, Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Galen Druke dig into the latest in politics and the numbers behind it. They break down what's happening, why, and what might happen next. They'll be covering everything from elections to betting markets to AI. Expect rigorous analysis and a few hot takes, but no spin and no false sense of certainty. New episodes drop every Wednesday wherever you get your podcasts, or subscribe at http://youtube.com/@stillcountingpodcast