The American Conservative Morning Briefing

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, November 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo argues today's midterms will be remembered not for shifting Washington's balance of power but for marking the close of the Trump era and the opening of a bruising succession fight between Cruz, Hegseth, and Vance. On day two hundred and forty-eight of the Iran war, markets rallied as Qatari-mediated talks in Doha pointed toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as two tankers were struck over the weekend and Tehran held firm on its conditions. and now for the details. We begin with today's midterm elections, which Jude Russo argues will be remembered less for what they change in Washington than for what they signal about the end of an era. Writing in The American Conservative, Russo notes that Republicans have no real legislative agenda heading into the vote; the administration's signature moves have all been executive-branch exercises, from the war with Iran to trade policy to the overhaul of the Kennedy Center. Even if Democrats sweep both chambers, they will fall well short of veto-proof or impeachment majorities. What makes today different, Russo contends, is that this is the last election cycle Donald Trump will lead the Republican Party into. From today forward, the fight over what comes after Trump begins in earnest. Russo lays out the likely contenders. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, he writes, is positioned to be a unity candidate, pairing populist style with Chamber of Commerce substance. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would offer a more hardline posture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio continues to signal he is not interested in 2028. And Vice President J.D. Vance, in Russo's analysis, remains the best available vehicle for an America First conservatism, though his viability depends heavily on how the Iran war is resolved. Russo returns to Michael Anton's 2016 essay "The Flight 93 Election," arguing its logic only holds if the Republican Party is actually challenging deindustrialization, the erosion of national identity, and imperial adventurism abroad. If instead it settles back into business as usual with tax cuts attached, he writes, the America First project will need a new and more disciplined champion than the one it has had for the past decade. Turning to the Iran war, now in its two hundred and forty-eighth day. Markets rallied Monday on word of progress in Qatari-mediated negotiations in Doha, where U.S. and Iranian officials are reportedly working on a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials offered positive public comments about the talks. Brent crude opened the week at about one hundred eleven dollars and sixty-nine cents a barrel, down sharply from Friday's close of one hundred seventeen sixty-four, and has continued to slide. AAA reported slight easing at the pump, with national averages at four dollars seventeen cents for regular gasoline and six dollars twenty-nine cents for diesel. Stocks rose and bond yields fell. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, however, the shooting has not stopped. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center said two tankers were struck near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and Tehran reiterated that its conditions for reopening the waterway remain unchanged. The link between the war and American household budgets, Russo has argued elsewhere, is direct: so long as Middle Eastern energy exports are constrained, the cost of fuel, credit, and nearly everything else stays elevated. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, November 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. As the midterms approach, Peter Van Buren argues the press has lapsed into apocalyptic fascism talk that bears little resemblance to 1930s Germany and more to the economics of clicks and Democratic turnout strategy. On day 247 of the war with Iran, President Trump floats finishing off remaining nuclear sites while Vice President Vance opens a direct diplomatic channel with Tehran and Doha talks shorten the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. and now for the details. With tomorrow's midterm elections on the horizon, the national press has returned to a familiar refrain: that American democracy itself is on the brink of collapse. The New Republic has run a cover declaring President Trump is planning a November coup. Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin warns November 3rd could be a defining test for the rule of law. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman predicts a Hitlerian decree if Republicans lose. New books forecast a Blue-Red civil war, and Art Spiegelman, author of Maus, now describes the current moment as worse than most things he knows. In a recent poll, 59 percent of Democratic respondents said they would feel positive about a junta removing Trump from power. As Peter Van Buren writes for The American Conservative, Germany in the 1930s was a radically different place: ravaged by world war, reparations, hyperinflation, and years of street violence by brownshirts before Hitler was ever appointed chancellor. Van Buren argues the word "fascism" has become shorthand for anything from ICE enforcement to an unfavorable court ruling, displacing more precise terms like illiberal, populist, or constitutionally aggressive. He sees two forces at work: the economics of attention, where Nazi comparisons generate clicks, and a political strategy that treats fear as a tool to herd reluctant voters toward the Democratic Party. Van Buren concludes that democracy, properly understood, is the system by which a republic corrects ugly politics and bad presidents, and he urges the press to show a little more faith in the American people. The war with Iran enters its 247th day with President Trump signaling that American forces may yet strike additional nuclear sites. Speaking to reporters on Saturday after a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said the United States had knocked out Iran's nuclear program but still needed to take care of one or two sites, specifically mentioning Pickaxe Mountain, and claimed the job could be done in ten minutes. Iranian officials responded with sharp warnings. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, promised devastating blows using new weaponry, and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructed commanders to drop geographical limitations on retaliatory strikes. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, Vice President J.D. Vance has opened a diplomatic channel to Rezaei, proposing direct talks, and Trump has backed the outreach even as he weighs new strikes after Tuesday's midterms. Negotiations in Doha, mediated by Qatar, entered a third day on Sunday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that delegations had shortened the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz from seven days to two, and he called America's diplomatic initiative a positive step. Day notes that analysts have pushed back on Netanyahu's claim that another round of strikes could topple the Islamic Republic, and recent assessments from the Associated Press and the Wall Street Journal have found that Iranian strikes on U.S. assets in the region grew more effective as the war progressed. Gasoline prices remain elevated, averaging $4.17 a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, November 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Alastair Crooke dissects a glaring contradiction in Washington: the CIA wages covert war on Russia while President Trump courts Putin, with the Starlink episode exposing just how little leverage the president holds over his own intelligence apparatus. As the Iran war reaches day 246, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei orders retaliation "without geographical limitations" even as Qatari mediators press for a breakthrough and American drivers continue paying $4.18 a gallon at the pump. and now for the details. Our lead story examines a striking contradiction at the heart of American policy toward Russia. A recent profile in The Atlantic of CIA Director John Ratcliffe carried a subheadline that said the quiet part out loud: the agency, in its words, is "at war with Russia, even as Trump makes nice with Putin." As Alastair Crooke reports for The American Conservative, the piece hints that Ratcliffe views Russia as an enduring enemy, and emphasizes that the CIA is "in the lead" on Ukraine, with its paramilitary covert action wing thrilled at being so busy. Crooke cites former CIA official Larry Johnson, who describes the resulting incoherence this way: the CIA helps Ukraine knock out Russian refining capacity, diesel prices soar, and then, in the middle of peace talks in Miami, the president announces a deal for Russia to sell its diesel on the world market. In Johnson's words, "You could not design a more incoherent policy if you tried." Crooke points to the recent Starlink episode — in which service to Ukrainian forces appeared to be curtailed until Kyiv agreed to stop striking Russian fuel refineries — as evidence that Trump's leverage over his own intelligence apparatus is limited. The deep state, Crooke argues, is not on board with the president's outreach to Moscow, and the president is not bringing them along. Meanwhile, Crooke writes, Moscow understands the game. Citing analyst Dmitri Trenin, he describes a Russian pivot to a sustained air campaign against Ukraine's military infrastructure, aimed at ending the conflict on Russia's terms. And citing Timofey Bordachev of the Valdai Club, Crooke notes that Eurozone government debt now sits near 89 percent of GDP, with France at 119 percent and Italy approaching 140 — leaving European capitals with neither the money nor the political will to sustain Kyiv indefinitely. The question Crooke leaves hanging is whether the CIA, so confident in what it knows, understands any of this at all. Turning to the Persian Gulf, where the war with Iran has entered its 246th day. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has told his military commanders that any renewed attack by the United States or Israel "must be met with an immediate and effective response, without geographical limitations." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed the message on social media, writing that "Red lines are a thing of the past." As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, the warnings arrive as President Trump weighs another round of major strikes on Iran while simultaneously backing diplomatic outreach led by Vice President J.D. Vance. Qatari mediators continued talks with Iranian officials in Doha on Saturday. One Qatari newspaper reported a breakthrough covering Tehran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and financial relief for Iran, though other accounts describe little real progress. U.S. Central Command chief Brad Cooper repeated Friday that the Iranian navy has been destroyed and the Strait of Hormuz is open to shipping, even as Tehran claims several vessels have struck sea mines in recent days. Day notes the economic toll closer to home: Brent crude closed Friday at $113.40 a barrel, and the average price of regular gasoline in America stood at $4.18 on Saturday — down twelve cents from the week before, but still a heavy burden on American drivers and family budgets as the war grinds into its ninth month. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 31st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran Friday to revive peace talks amid fears Washington could renew its war against Iran after the midterms, as oil edged toward $117 a barrel and gasoline hit $4.20. Scott Greer dismantles Thom Tillis and Jonah Goldberg's prediction that a midterm loss will restore the pre-Trump GOP, arguing the Bourbon Republicans have no army left to lead them back to power. Chancellor John Healey's new UK budget tosses fiscal peanuts to hard-pressed Britons while debt interest, welfare spending, and energy costs continue their unsustainable climb. and now for the details. We begin overseas, where Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday in an effort to revive peace talks, amid concerns that the United States may renew its war against Iran after next week's midterm elections. Qatar presented a draft proposal for a diplomatic path forward last weekend, and reports suggest progress is being made in discussions with Iranian representatives. Iran is also expected to respond soon to a letter sent earlier this week by Vice President Vance. On the same day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it stopped two tankers from taking what it called unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz. That follows renewed assertions this week from U.S. Central Command that the United States and its regional partners control the international waterway. Elsewhere in the region, Houthi and Saudi-aligned forces traded strikes on Thursday, with explosions heard near Riyadh and at least twelve reported killed in Yemen. Conditions are also deteriorating in the Yemeni city of Taiz, under siege by the Houthis. The economic pressure continues to be felt here at home. As Luke Nicastro reports, oil prices rose early Friday, with Brent crude futures edging toward one hundred and seventeen dollars a barrel. AAA puts the average price of regular gasoline in the United States at four dollars and twenty cents a gallon, with diesel at six dollars and thirty-two cents. Turning to American politics, retiring North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis told Politico this week that he expects a Republican defeat in next week's midterms, and that such a reckoning will push the GOP back to what he called traditional Republican platform priorities, meaning limited government and free market orthodoxy. Tillis, who declined to seek reelection over the prospect of a Trump-backed primary challenger, argued that Trumpism will not outlast President Trump. Writing at the Dispatch, commentator Jonah Goldberg echoed the sentiment, dismissing New Right figures as unlikely to win arguments in a post-Trump era. Scott Greer, writing for The American Conservative, pushes back hard on that forecast. Greer notes that the Republican establishment made the same prediction when Trump left office in 2021, and instead the party moved further from the old guard, not closer. He points out that vocal Trump critics such as John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy have been bested in primaries this year, while the figures positioning themselves for 2028, Vice President J.D. Vance, Senator Josh Hawley, Governor Ron DeSantis, even Secretary of State Marco Rubio, all show more skepticism of foreign intervention and mass migration than enthusiasm for Paul Ryan-style technocracy. Greer calls Tillis and Goldberg Bourbon Republicans, after the restored French monarchs who, as the saying went, had learned nothing and forgotten nothing. He argues the base, the institutions, and especially conservatives under forty, have moved on, and there is no army left to restore the pre-Trump establishment to power. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Day 244 of the Iran war opens with Vice President Vance's letter to hardliner Mohsen Rezaei proposing new peace talks, even as President Trump weighs fresh strikes and a tanker burns in the Strait of Hormuz. Jude Russo argues Vance is uniquely positioned, and uniquely incentivized, to end the war, warning the White House not to let his outreach become cover for another bombing campaign. Eldar Mamedov sees in this week's Tehran meeting of the Mecca alliance the outlines of a new regional security order, and makes the bold case for eventually bringing Iran inside it. and now for the details. We begin with the latest from day 244 of the Iran war. Vice President J.D. Vance has reached out directly to a key Iranian hardliner, proposing a revival of peace talks. According to reporting in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, the proposal came in a letter delivered on Sunday by Qatari mediators to Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. In the letter, Vance said he himself would lead the American delegation and suggested the two sides meet soon. President Trump, who is at the same time weighing renewed strikes on Iran, read and approved the letter. But he also downplayed the outreach to reporters, saying it had to do with getting medical supplies into the country. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, oil markets responded to the diplomatic signals, with Brent crude dipping more than one and a half percent on Thursday morning. Still, the picture on the ground remains volatile. A ship was reported burning in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, and Iran said three oil tankers had caught fire after striking sea mines. Tehran has escalated attacks in the strait through October. The average price of regular gasoline in America stood at four dollars and twenty-three cents. Staying with the Vance letter, our managing editor Jude Russo argues that the Vice President may be the only figure in the administration both willing and able to bring the Iran war to a close. Russo's case rests less on Vance's personal convictions than on his material incentives. President Trump, Russo notes, has no more elections to win, and much of his inner circle has little appetite to challenge him on the war, with some officials appearing to enjoy the conflict. Vance, by contrast, faces a 2028 campaign in which he will have to wear not just the war but the manner in which it was prosecuted. Senators like Ted Cruz can run as hawks who would have done things differently. Vance cannot. As Russo writes, if the war can be wrapped up and the economy returned to normal, Vance can credibly claim the peace, and that political necessity gives him a weight with Iranian interlocutors that special envoys with real estate empires to return to simply lack. Russo cautions, however, that if the diplomatic outreach turns out to be cover for another round of strikes, it will discredit the one official best positioned to end the fighting. His message to the White House is direct: don't do that. The diplomatic activity around Iran is not confined to Washington. Senior representatives of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, the three members of the newly formed Mecca defense alliance, gathered in Tehran earlier this week for an unprecedented meeting with Iranian officials. The immediate aim was to head off another round of fighting that Gulf states fear would devastate their energy infrastructure. But as Eldar Mamedov writes for The American Conservative, the meeting may mark the first steps toward a new regional security order in which Middle Eastern powers, rather than the United States, take primary responsibility for their own affairs. Mamedov makes a bolder proposal: that Iran itself eventually be invited to join the Mecca Pact. He argues that no durable arrangement can succeed by permanently excluding a country of Iran's size and capabilities, and that perpetual enmity offers diminishing returns. Saudi Arabia, he notes, learned the hard way that American protection is not guaranteed. When the Houthis closed the Bab-el-Mandeb and struck Saudi targets, Washington did not come to the rescue. For Mamedov, such an evolution would allow the United States to adopt a strategy of offshore balancing, focused on preventing a regional hegemon, securing freedom of navigation, and attending to the interests of the American people. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 29th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Luke Nicastro argues in The American Conservative that Israel's inconclusive post–October 7 election is a chance to end the "special relationship," since even the opposition bloc shares Netanyahu's hawkish consensus on Iran, Gaza, and the West Bank. With Netanyahu weakened but still in power, Andrew Day warns that the prime minister has strong incentives to provoke a renewed war with Iran—a scenario that one Israeli analyst suggests could pave the way for a unity government under his continued leadership. Across the Atlantic, Fraser Myers reports that Andy Burnham's cabinet is in open revolt over Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's plan to tighten indefinite leave to remain, as the "soft left" moves to block reforms aimed at the 2.5 million-strong "Boriswave.". and now for the details. We begin with the aftermath of Israel's first election since October 7th. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition has been denied an outright majority, but pro-Netanyahu parties still took more seats than the Jewish anti-Netanyahu bloc, with the balance held by two Arab parties whose participation in any coalition remains controversial. Netanyahu's Likud remains the single largest party in the Knesset. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that whatever the final arithmetic, the deeper problem is not one man but the structure of the U.S.-Israel relationship itself. Nicastro notes that in the run-up to the vote, Netanyahu ordered Israeli warplanes to fly near Iranian airspace, reportedly hoping to provoke a response that would justify renewing the war, and issued a directive for military action against Iran that was reportedly thwarted by resistance from the IDF chief of staff. Nicastro also points to campaign messaging that included images of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv. But Nicastro's larger point is that the composition of the opposition bloc tells its own story. It relies heavily on hawks like Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett, and the de facto opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot is, Nicastro writes, in basic agreement with Netanyahu on the war against Iran, the future of Gaza, and Palestinian statehood. Eisenkot himself is largely associated with the Dahiya Doctrine, which deploys disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure. The upshot, Nicastro argues, is that no plausible change inside Israeli politics will end the pressure on Washington to underwrite confrontation with Iran, the subordination of Gaza and the West Bank, and continued military entanglement in a theater increasingly peripheral to American grand strategy. He calls the moment an opportunity to end what the diplomat George Ball once called "the passionate attachment," and to treat Israel as a normal country. A companion piece sharpens the near-term risk. Andrew Day writes that Netanyahu, backed into a corner but not out of power, is in a very dangerous place for the Middle East, the United States, and the Trump presidency. Day points to President Trump's own Truth Social post endorsing Netanyahu, in which Trump warned that if Israel had "the wrong Leader," America would have to do the work against Iran itself, and that he was "not inclined to do so." Day reads that, inadvertently, as an argument against Netanyahu, given the unpopularity of the Iran War at home and the inflation it has unleashed. Day reports that ahead of the election, Netanyahu urged Trump to attack Iran, and when that failed, sought to initiate a new round of fighting but met resistance from Israeli military officials. He cites Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz, who suggested a renewed military confrontation could allow Netanyahu to push for a national unity government and remain in power despite losing his parliamentary majority. Day warns patriotic Trump officials who oppose the war to be on guard in the coming weeks. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, October 28th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jack Hunter argues the voter anger driving the midterms is not nostalgia for a McCain-Romney GOP but a continuation of the populist revolt that produced Trump—now aimed at a president who promised no new wars yet launched one with Iran. W. James Antle III warns Republicans against drawing the wrong lesson from likely midterm losses, cautioning that a bipartisan immigration deal pitched as legacy-defining would misread why Hispanic support grew in the first place. Ted Galen Carpenter makes the case that Western planners are dangerously complacent about the prospect of a limited, non-nuclear war with Russia, and that Americans must honestly weigh whether the Ukraine proxy war is worth risking attacks on the homeland. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing debate over the direction of the Republican party heading into the midterms. North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, who declined to seek reelection, is promoting a new book positioning himself as a dissident from MAGA. Tillis argues that the coalition President Trump assembled will not stick with Republicans once the party returns to what he calls traditional platform priorities. On the other side of the aisle, Rahm Emanuel, now seeking the 2028 Democratic nomination, has written in the Wall Street Journal urging his party to welcome what he describes as politically homeless McCain-Romney Republicans into the Democratic coalition. As Jack Hunter writes for The American Conservative, both men are misreading the moment. Hunter argues that voter anger heading into the election is not a yearning for a pre-Trump GOP of John McCain, Mitt Romney, and George W. Bush. Rather, it's a continuation of the same populist revolt that produced Trump in the first place. Hunter notes that Trump's coalition is frustrated because the president who promised no new wars and lower prices instead launched a new war with Iran at Israel's behest. He points out that Democratic challengers in once-safe Republican seats are finding traction with populist campaigns focused on prices, opposing the war, and putting America first. Hunter also recalls that Tillis himself first won his seat in 2014 by defeating Tea Party insurgents backed by Rand Paul—placing him firmly on the establishment side of a Republican uprising that long predated Trump. Staying with the midterms, there's growing concern on the right that Republicans may draw the wrong conclusions from any losses next week. Florida Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar made headlines last month telling the president in a campaign ad that some of his immigration enforcement efforts had gone too far. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, Salazar was never fully aligned with Trump on immigration to begin with. She has long favored legal status for most illegal immigrants already in the country, taking the Bush-era position that staged legalization doesn't count as amnesty. Antle argues that this position polls well in the abstract but tends to collapse once voters see the fine print. He warns that Republicans will be tempted to blame any midterm losses purely on Trumpian branding, ignoring the parallel with the 2006 collapse of the GOP's congressional majorities. Antle's assessment is that Trump has delivered real results on the border and on legal immigration, and that the growth in Hispanic Republican support came during lockdowns and inflation—not because of any softening on enforcement. The more pressing course correction, in Antle's view, lies elsewhere: on affordability and on the foreign wars Trump implied he would avoid. He warns that a bipartisan immigration deal, which could be pitched to Trump as legacy-defining, would be the wrong lesson to learn. Turning to Europe, NATO partisans on both sides of the Atlantic continue to press the alliance's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, even as Western officials warn that the Kremlin may be preparing a direct confrontation with NATO itself. Ted Galen Carpenter writes for The American Conservative that policymakers are placing dangerous confidence in the assumption that Russia will be deterred from any serious attack on alliance territory. Carpenter notes that most strategic discussion focuses on the extreme case of full-scale nuclear war, which analysts then dismiss by invoking Cold War deterrence logic. But he argues the more plausible scenario—a sustained, limited, non-nuclear war between NATO and Russia—has received far too little serious consideration. Carpenter walks through what that would actually mean for ordinary Americans and Europeans. He writes that civilians in the West have no living memory of warfare on their own soil, pointing out that aside from Pearl Harbor and 9/11, the American homeland has been untouched by major attack since the Civil War. Russia, he observes, has the military capacity to change that. Carpenter's conclusion i

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 27th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Lula has clinched a historic fourth term in Brazil, but Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to concede after a last-minute Supreme Court ruling by Lula's former attorney extended voting hours nationwide. Bruna Frascolla argues the deeper story is Lula's thin record after sixteen years of Workers' Party rule, with little to offer Brazilian youth beyond welfare amid continued deindustrialization. Steve Witkoff shuttled between Zelensky and Putin last week, and Ted Snider contends an unfair compromise peace is now the only way to spare Ukraine from existential ruin. and now for the details. We begin in Brazil, where President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has won a historic fourth term, defeating right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in Sunday's runoff election. According to results announced by Brazil's electoral court, Lula took 51.8 percent of the vote. But Bolsonaro has refused to concede, and is asking for the election to be annulled. He is pointing to a last-minute decision by a Supreme Court justice to extend voting hours by two hours nationwide. That justice, Cristiano Zanin, is Lula's former personal attorney, though both campaigns had, in fact, requested extensions. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, the results defied pre-election polls, which had largely favored Bolsonaro, and the outcome marks a setback for the rising Latin American right. Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated in 2022, and who was later sentenced to prison for plotting a coup to remain in power. For a deeper look at how Lula pulled off this upset, we turn to analysis from Bruna Frascolla, writing for The American Conservative. Frascolla notes that on the eve of the second round, nearly every major Brazilian polling institute believed Bolsonaro would win. The turning point came when the Workers' Party petitioned not the Electoral Court but the Supreme Court to extend voting hours across the entire country, citing bus transit disruptions in Lula-friendly Salvador. Some of those disruptions, Frascolla reports, were actually caused by Lula's own trade union allies, who had illegally plastered Workers' Party stickers on city buses, forcing their removal before routes could begin. The Supreme Court assigned the case to Justice Zanin, Lula's former attorney, who ruled in his former client's favor. Frascolla argues the deeper story is Lula's thin record. After more than sixteen years of Workers' Party rule, his campaign appealed overwhelmingly to the elderly, who remembered the commodity boom of the 2000s. He had little to offer Brazilian youth beyond expanded welfare, having presided over the continued deindustrialization of Brazil, a 2004 trade agreement opening the country to a flood of Chinese imports, and last year's EU-Mercosur deal that favors agribusiness at the expense of manufacturing. Frascolla writes that Brazil now resembles the United States in one grim respect: engineers with student debt driving for Uber, much as American factory towns were hollowed out by offshoring. The opposition-controlled Senate, she notes, has shown a willingness to impeach justices, and the political aftermath of this election is far from settled. Turning to the war in Ukraine. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff flew last week from Oslo, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to St. Petersburg for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Witkoff reportedly carried updated proposals for a framework agreement to end the war, and Putin reportedly responded that he is ready, in principle, to resume talks with Kiev in November. Writing for The American Conservative, Ted Snider argues that the United States and Europe should put every effort behind those talks. Snider contends that Ukraine faces existential peril if the war continues, with its ports, bridges, infrastructure, and industry being systematically destroyed, and that it can no longer defend its capital from devastating attacks. A compromise peace, he acknowledges, will not be fair; Ukraine will have to make the more painful concessions. But under a reasonable settlement, Snider writes, Ukraine would remain sovereign, keep most of its territory, retain a strong military, and be free to join the European Union. NATO membership, he argues, is off the table, and legally binding commitments to Ukrainian neutrality will be essential, since this was the central reason Russia launched its invasion. For its part, Russia has already dropped its objection to EU membership for Kiev. Snider concludes that any lasting security architecture must embrace all of Europe, including Russia, finally laying the foundation for peace that was never established after the Cold War. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, October 26th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. A new book reviewed by Martin Di Caro portrays the Biden team as willfully blind to famine and war crimes in Gaza, enabling Israel's war while paving the road to today's conflict with Iran. Peter Van Buren spotlights the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, a small Democratic group that may have finally diagnosed why the party keeps losing the Midwest—and why Republicans should take note. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a searching new review of the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza. Writing for The American Conservative, Martin Di Caro examines "Crossing the Red Line," a new book by investigative journalist Akbar Shahid Ahmed that chronicles how President Biden and his inner circle enabled Israel's war on Gaza, even as evidence of famine, mass civilian casualties, and the destruction of hospitals and aid stations piled up on their desks. Ahmed reports that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk discounted famine warnings from U.S. agencies because, in their view, Palestinians in photographs did not look thin enough. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Ahmed finds, never asked the intelligence community to assess whether Israel was committing war crimes, and officials repeatedly slowed internal inquiries, allowing the administration to claim it lacked evidence to restrict weapons transfers. As Di Caro recounts, Ahmed draws a direct comparison to Lyndon Johnson and the architects of the Vietnam War: highly credentialed officials who closed their eyes to what was in front of them. Biden had the tools to restrain Prime Minister Netanyahu, Di Caro writes, but used them only once, briefly, after Israeli drones killed aid workers from Jose Andres' World Central Kitchen. That episode showed U.S. leverage worked when applied—but such moments were rare. Di Caro concludes that Biden's failure to restrain Israel in 2023 and 2024 accelerated the regional instability he claimed to prevent, and paved the road to the current American war with Iran. And he notes a familiar pattern: McGurk now appears on CNN; Blinken and Sullivan hold perches at prestigious universities. In foreign policy, being colossally wrong rarely costs a career. Turning to domestic politics, a small Democratic organization believes it has diagnosed why the party keeps losing rural, post-industrial, and non-college voters across the Midwest—and conservatives, writes Peter Van Buren, should take note. Van Buren traces the long arc of Democratic abandonment of places like his native Ohio, where closed factories, consolidated farms, and the loss of family-sustaining work left generations of loyal Democratic voters wondering if anyone in government remembered they existed. Hillary Clinton's 2016 "basket of deplorables" remark, he argues, turned a political disagreement into a judgment about the character of millions of Americans—and that posture has only hardened since. Enter the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, or RUBI, a Democratic group pushing back against the default progressive habit of personally blaming Trump voters. Their newsletter warns that holding individual voters accountable for Trump's actions "might feel like an act of justice, but it's a strategic pitfall." Their 2026 Rural and Factory Town Candidate Toolkit reminds Democrats of the arithmetic: only 39 percent of the electorate views the party favorably, and in July just 31 percent of high school graduates said they planned to vote Democratic in the midterms. The advice is largely common sense—talk about local issues, talk like a neighbor, build trust, respect free speech and viewpoint diversity, and stop lecturing voters. RUBI also cites polling showing 59 percent of factory-town voters see Democrats as obsessed with LGBT issues rather than kitchen-table economics. Van Buren is skeptical the effort can scale in time for 2026, or even 2028, given likely presidential contenders like Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, and Ocasio-Cortez. But he writes that RUBI, nearly alone among liberal groups, has the right idea—and that is worth watching. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 25th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Democrats enter next month's midterms with an eleven-point generic ballot lead as Trump's approval sinks to thirty-four percent, with Hunter DeRensis arguing voters are decisively rejecting the Iran war and invoking the 1952 GOP antiwar playbook that carried Eisenhower to victory. On day two hundred thirty-nine of the Iran war, a memo from DNI Jay Clayton warns that Tehran's lethal plotting against Americans has reached "advanced stages," as the U.S. evacuates nonessential embassy staff from Saudi Arabia and Brent crude closes at one hundred seventeen dollars. Giorgio Cafiero examines Pakistan's buyer's remorse over the Taliban's return, as Islamabad finds itself in open war with Kabul over TTP and BLA sanctuaries while Russia, China, and the West decline to back its campaign. and now for the details. We begin with the political landscape heading into next month's midterms. The latest New York Times/Siena poll finds Democrats holding an eleven-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, and President Trump's approval rating has slipped to a new low of thirty-four percent. An AP-NORC survey this month found the economy and cost of living remain voters' top concern at eighty-four percent, but the war with Iran now ranks second, cited by sixty-four percent of respondents—twenty points higher than immigration. Writing in The American Conservative, Hunter DeRensis argues this rebuke represents a deep rejection of the administration's direction since the surprise joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran launched February twenty-eighth. That war of choice, DeRensis notes, failed to produce regime change but led to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of Gulf energy infrastructure. Gas now averages four dollars and twenty-six cents a gallon nationally; diesel sits above six dollars. DeRensis draws a contrast with 1952, when Republicans campaigned openly against the Korean War and endless overseas intervention. He cites an Indiana Republican State Central Committee brochure from that year calling for a foreign policy "sane and secure, instead of rash and reckless," and tying the war boom directly to inflation, taxes, and the national debt. Eisenhower, DeRensis notes, went on to win by eleven points, secured an armistice in Korea, and reduced military spending. He points to a recent CNN town hall where Vice President J.D. Vance, questioned by a man whose wife was killed in action in March, said it was the first he had heard of the specific failures involved. DeRensis argues the American voter has not changed—when offered a clear choice for less war abroad and more focus at home, the voter takes it, regardless of party. Turning to the war itself, now in its two hundred and thirty-ninth day. Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative on a Friday memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warning that Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target Americans in the Middle East and beyond. Clayton wrote that lethal plotting against U.S. citizens has reached "advanced stages" in the Middle East and in certain other countries. The memo was first reported by Axios. On Wednesday, the United States evacuated nonessential personnel from its embassy in Saudi Arabia. Russo also notes developments in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a crackdown in the West Bank city of Hebron, evicting families and demolishing buildings after Palestinians shot and killed two Israeli soldiers Friday. Israeli elections are set for Tuesday. On the markets, Brent crude closed Friday at one hundred and seventeen dollars per barrel. AAA reported national average prices of four dollars and thirty cents per gallon for regular gasoline and six dollars and thirty-four cents for diesel. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 24th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. As the Iran War nears its ninth month, Ambassador Mike Waltz tells the Financial Times the conflict could stretch another year or more, even as oil prices surge and Trump weighs renewed strikes. TAC editors have been making the case for restraint across major outlets in recent weeks, from Al Jazeera and the New Yorker to the Matt Gaetz Show and the East-West Forum in Istanbul. Alan Pell Crawford casts a wry eye on a motherless elephant calf at the National Zoo, the latest "definitive" verdict on Jefferson and Hemings, and the strange vocabulary tics of public radio guests. and now for the details. We begin this morning with the Iran War, now approaching its ninth month. Mike Waltz, the Trump administration's ambassador to the United Nations, told the Financial Times in remarks published Friday that the conflict could stretch on for another year, or longer. Waltz said he hopes Tehran will settle before then, but added that, in his words, the president and the U.S. Navy can maintain the blockade on Iranian ports for the foreseeable future. When the war began, President Trump had predicted it would last only four to five weeks. As Andrew Day reports, the conflict has roiled energy markets, worsened inflation, and created significant headwinds for Republicans heading into the November midterms. Brent crude spiked to one hundred fourteen dollars a barrel on Friday after Iran claimed successful attacks on seven tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Day notes that President Trump is now weighing a renewal of intense hostilities, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly telling him that devastating strikes could trigger regime change in Tehran. Iranian officials have warned that a new round of fighting would not be quick, and that they would expand retaliation to new targets, including digital infrastructure. Trump, for his part, accused Iran on Thursday of, quote, making up fake hits to drive up oil prices. From the magazine itself, a quick note on where TAC's editors have been making the case for restraint and realism in recent weeks. Executive Director Curt Mills appeared on Al Jazeera to discuss the American midterm election, was quoted in the New Yorker on the post-Trump right, and spoke on the Reveal podcast about the U.S. relationship with Israel. Senior Editor Andrew Day spoke on American foreign policy at the East-West Forum in Istanbul and moderated a panel on the U.S.-Israel relationship for the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy. Managing Editor Jude Russo appeared on the Matt Gaetz Show to discuss Yemen's Houthis, and on the Daily Wire's Wired In Live to discuss the Ukraine War. Senior Editor Luke Nicastro was quoted in the New Yorker on a prospective Hegseth impeachment. Turning to matters cultural, Alan Pell Crawford casts a wry eye on three stories from the capital and the commentariat. First, at the Smithsonian's National Zoo, keepers are hand-raising an eight-month-old Asian elephant calf named Linh Mai, after her mother rejected her. Zookeepers have introduced her to two older female elephants they're calling her aunties, telling the Washington Post they worry about whether, in their words, she knows she's an elephant, or thinks she's a person. Crawford, with tongue firmly in cheek, wonders why this should be decided for her at all. Second, Crawford examines the fresh round of headlines declaring that Thomas Jefferson definitively fathered Sally Hemings's children, based on a new book by Richard Kurin that relies on DNA from hair said to be clipped from Jefferson's deathbed. Crawford notes that the book skipped the usual step of peer review in a scientific journal, prompting one Hemings descendant to withdraw her participation. He points out that the original DNA studies never implicated Jefferson alone, since nine other Jefferson men, including his brother Randolph, shared the same Y chromosome. Crawford's broader concern is the eagerness with which claims are embraced, and the misinformation that spreads in their wake. Finally, Crawford turns to the peculiar vocabulary of public radio, where guests reliably say folks, thanks for having me, and above all, multiple—a word, he observes, that is almost always redundant, since the noun it modifies is already plural. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 23rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On day two hundred and thirty-seven of the Iran conflict, reports indicate American and Israeli planners are preparing fresh strikes after the November midterms, as Brent crude hits one hundred and ten dollars and gas climbs to four twenty-seven a gallon. Jude Russo asks what another round of bombing is actually supposed to achieve, warning that shifting political goals and the sheer scale of Iran make a decade-long luxury war untenable and diplomacy the more prudent path. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing conflict in Iran, now in its two hundred and thirty-seventh day. The New York Times reported Wednesday that American and Israeli war planners are preparing to resume active strikes on Iran following the November 3rd midterm elections. According to the Times, citing anonymous officials, President Trump has ordered and canceled fresh strikes multiple times. The new plans reportedly focus on Iran's nuclear program and energy infrastructure, while avoiding refineries and oil facilities. Some believe action may come sooner. An Iranian official told Drop Site News that Tehran anticipates renewed fighting perhaps even before the October 27th Israeli parliamentary elections, though the White House has denied the reports. Meanwhile, Axios reports the Israeli Air Force has been conducting aggressive maneuvers near Iranian airspace. State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said Wednesday the U.S. is evacuating nonessential personnel from American diplomatic posts in Saudi Arabia, citing the threat of Houthi strikes. Iran, for its part, has continued operations in the Persian Gulf, claiming strikes on four tankers in a Thursday statement. The economic signals are already visible: Brent crude opened at one hundred and ten dollars, and AAA reports a national average of four dollars and twenty-seven cents per gallon for regular gas, and six dollars and thirty-one cents for diesel. Jude Russo filed the report for The American Conservative. In a companion analysis, Jude Russo asks the question hanging over all of this: what, exactly, is another round of bombing in Iran actually supposed to accomplish? Russo notes that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is en route to the Persian Gulf, expected to arrive late next month. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paid a quick visit to Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Monday. The State Department is sending personnel home, and troop numbers at regional bases are being reduced. As Russo reports, the war's stated political goals have shifted repeatedly, from ending Iran's nuclear program, to reopening the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war, to regime change in Tehran. The current theory downtown, he writes, is that another round of strikes combined with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic maneuvers will push Iran to the table or trigger a change of government. Russo is skeptical. He points out that Iran is not Syria. It is simply too large for what he calls a decade-long luxury war. An indigenous uprising would likely provoke a civil war, which would not make the Hormuz safe nor secure Iranian nuclear assets. His central argument is one of political prudence: matching means to ends. Main force is expensive and painful, and historically you need far more of it than planners anticipate. Diplomacy's ceiling may be lower, but it is less costly. Russo warns that another round of bombing is unlikely to move the country closer to a stable settlement in the Middle East, nor to help Republicans at the ballot box in the midterms or in 2028. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 22nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Doug Bandow argues that Washington's attempts to micromanage European defense spending have produced only frustration on both sides, and that a genuine America First policy would treat European governments as allies rather than dependents. Daniel R. DePetris surveys the mounting costs of Operation Epic Fury, from a depleted munitions stockpile to vulnerable Gulf bases, and contends that a post-American Middle East is both overdue and already quietly taking shape. and now for the details. We begin this morning in the transatlantic alliance, where tensions between Washington and its European partners are rising sharply over defense spending. President Trump continues to press European governments to dramatically increase their military outlays, and NATO leaders, including Secretary General Mark Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander General Alexus Grynkewich, have talked tough about deterring Russian aggression. But the reality on the ground is far less confident. In the United Kingdom, new Prime Minister Andy Burnham is staring down a forty-seven billion dollar budget gap, and this week London announced cuts of some two-point-seven billion dollars to front-line army equipment. France is bracing for a bond sell-off after a weekend of violent protests, and populist movements critical of military spending are gaining strength from Italy to Poland to Germany. As Doug Bandow reports for The American Conservative, European officials are increasingly open about their frustration. Italian parliamentarian Lia Quartapelle was quoted telling Politico Europe that Trump quote "cannot be trusted and we are on our own." Bandow argues that the current arrangement serves no one well. Europeans remain dependent on an increasingly irascible and unreliable patron, while the United States continues to underwrite the defense of a prosperous continent fully capable of defending itself. Meanwhile, Trump's efforts to extract commercial concessions as the price of continued American protection, Bandow writes, hurt American consumers more than they help them. His recommendation: Washington should stop micromanaging European militaries, state plainly what it intends to do, and allow European governments to make their own security choices as allies, not dependents. That, Bandow concludes, would be a genuinely America First agenda. Turning to the Persian Gulf, where Operation Epic Fury has now entered its eighth month. By the Pentagon's own admission, the war with Iran has cost American taxpayers more than forty billion dollars, and the U.S. military has expended over sixty percent of its stockpile of air defense interceptors as well as many of its most advanced precision munitions. Allied orders from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are being delayed, and air defense assets normally positioned in Asia have been shifted to the Gulf. Iranian strikes have damaged buildings on American bases in at least eight Middle Eastern countries, and the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain is now considered so vulnerable that resupply operations have moved to Diego Garcia, more than two thousand miles away. Daniel R. DePetris writes that the war has exposed the fundamental weakness of a regional posture built up since the 1991 Gulf War. The constellation of bases from Kuwait to Qatar to the UAE, once considered sound investments, have become liabilities. Arab governments are quietly hedging. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which includes a mutual-defense clause modeled on NATO's Article Five. Kuwait has signed its own defense accord with Pakistan, and the UAE has reportedly allowed the deployment of Israeli air defense systems on its territory. DePetris argues this reassessment is overdue, and that Washington should actively encourage a post-American Middle East by drawing down forces from vulnerable Gulf bases. The record of American intervention in the region, he writes, is one of hubris, failure, and unanticipated costs, and the sooner the United States abandons its role as regional policeman, the sooner lasting stability will become possible. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 20th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Luke Nicastro surveys the riots convulsing France and finds the same combustible mix of cost-of-living pain, fiscal reckoning, and mass migration taking hold across Europe, with continued decline the likeliest trajectory. As the war with Iran enters its two hundred and thirty-fourth day, Sergey Lavrov lands in Tehran offering Russian mediation, even as Moscow quietly aids Iranian targeting of U.S. forces and President Trump touts a new Russian diesel deal. Iranian strikes on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have made October the worst month of the war for vessel attacks, driving Brent crude to one hundred and ten dollars and American gasoline to four dollars and thirty cents a gallon. and now for the details. We begin this morning in France, where weeks of unrest have escalated into some of the worst street violence the country has seen in years. What began as student demonstrations over school conditions and university admissions has swelled into a broader revolt, joined by trade unionists and radicals, taking aim at fuel prices, the cost of living, government budget cuts, and ultimately the very notion of authority. This past weekend alone, nearly a thousand police officers and gendarmes were injured, more than twenty-four hundred arrests were made, and the town hall of Limoges, a building that survived two world wars, was gutted by arson. Similar demonstrations have now broken out in Madrid, Milan, Lisbon, and Brussels. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that the conditions driving the unrest are common across the continent. He points to three converging failures: a cost of living crisis sharpened by energy prices France cannot control; a looming fiscal reckoning that has forced even President Macron's government to propose spending cuts; and the deep social fractures produced by mass migration, with nearly twelve percent of the French population now foreign-born. Overlaying all of it, Nicastro writes, is the bankruptcy of a political establishment led by a president with a fifteen percent approval rating. Nicastro sees some possibility of renewal through rising populist parties like the National Rally and the AfD, but he is sober about the material dilemma Europe faces: faltering economic competitiveness, a worsening affordability crisis, and the real prospect that the technologies shaping the future, especially artificial intelligence, will pass the continent by. His conclusion: continued decline is more probable than not, though the collapse, if it comes, will play out over years and decades rather than all at once. Turning to the war with Iran, now in its two hundred and thirty-fourth day. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East. Moscow has indicated it would be willing to mediate between Washington and Tehran. President Trump said Sunday he had struck a deal to import Russian diesel, citing in part what he described as the limited nature of Moscow's support for Iran during the war. Writing on Truth Social, the president said Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic, and that he wants to keep it that way. News reports and expert analyses, however, indicate Russia has provided Iran with satellite intelligence used for targeting American forces and assets. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a sharp response to the president's threats, writing on X that the last time Mr. Trump wanted to, quote, finish the job, Iran emerged even stronger. Araghchi said an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table. Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative that Iran has escalated strikes on vessels around the Strait, making October the worst month for such attacks since the war began. The consequences are showing up at American gas pumps. Brent crude hit a five-month high of one hundred and ten dollars a barrel on Friday. The average price of regular gasoline in the United States now stands at four dollars and thirty cents a gallon, up from two dollars and ninety-eight cents before the war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Monday, October 19th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo examines how Erdoğan, once jailed by Turkey's Kemalist "deep state," has become the establishment he spent his career fighting, even as inflation, repression, and succession questions cloud his foreign policy winning streak. With 92 ambassadorial posts vacant, Peter Van Buren argues that if embassies can run for months under career chargés, the real question is whether political ambassadorships were ever as indispensable as their defenders claim. and now for the details. We turn first to Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is enjoying a run of foreign policy wins even as pressures mount at home. The Kurdistan Workers' Party has notionally dissolved after its imprisoned leader called for arms to be laid down. In Washington last month, Erdoğan secured a memorandum on civilian nuclear cooperation and defense goods including jet engines. At July's NATO summit, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions so Turkey could acquire F-35s. And in August, Ankara signed the Mecca Defense Alliance with Riyadh and Islamabad. Yet inflation still runs near 30 percent, growth is slowing, and Erdoğan's domestic tactics are growing more repressive. In May, the Erdoğan-appointed judiciary voided the leadership elections of the main opposition CHP, prompting riot police to physically remove its leader, Özgür Özel, from party headquarters. Özel broke away in July to form the Yeni Parti, accusing the "deep state" of persecuting Erdoğan's opponents. As Jude Russo writes in The American Conservative, this is a deeply ironic turn. "Deep state" is originally a Turkish term, describing the Kemalist elite complex that for decades knocked back popular, religiously-rooted politicians—including, once, Erdoğan himself, who was jailed in 1999 for reciting a nationalist poem. Russo argues Erdoğan was the earliest of the 21st century's right-wing populists, and his career now illustrates the classic populist dilemma: to advance his agenda, he had to become the establishment, inheriting its dysfunctions, or concentrate power in his own person, leaving the project vulnerable when he departs. At 72, with succession looming and figures like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar in the mix, Russo observes it is difficult to imagine anyone filling Erdoğan's enormous role in the modern Turkish state. Next, a question about American diplomacy itself. The Trump administration currently has 92 ambassadorial seats sitting empty, with nominees either stuck in Senate confirmation or no nominee named at all. By comparison, at the same point in their presidencies, Biden had 54 vacancies and the first Trump administration had 55. Vacant posts include some significant ones—Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Germany among them. Senate Foreign Relations Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has accused the administration of retreating from the world stage, noting that China keeps ambassadors in nearly every capital. Writing in The American Conservative, Peter Van Buren—a State Department veteran of more than two decades—asks whether this is really the problem critics claim. Van Buren notes that since 1960, 72 percent of American ambassadors to desirable posts in Western Europe and the Caribbean have been political appointees, their primary qualification often being generous donations to the winning campaign. When an ambassador is absent, the embassy is led by a chargé—typically the deputy chief of mission, usually a seasoned Foreign Service Officer with deep country experience. Van Buren argues that embassies as currently constituted were designed for a 19th-century world without video calls, encrypted messaging, cabinet-level travel, and direct leader-to-leader communication. Critics, he writes, rarely identify specific policy outcomes that required a Senate-confirmed ambassador rather than a competent chargé. If 92 embassies can function for months without ambassadors, Van Buren suggests, the honest question is how indispensable those positions were in the first place. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 18th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Phillip Linderman digs into the Scoular bribery case and other federal prosecutions to argue that booming U.S.–Mexico trade is quietly fattening the cartels and that Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan before the 2027 USMCA review. On day 232 of the war with Iran, Tehran declares the Strait of Hormuz "closed" after a wave of tanker attacks, sending gas to $4.31 a gallon as Foreign Minister Araghchi hands Washington a seven-day ultimatum through Qatar. Katie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after just days on the job, closing the shortest tenure in the position's history following a panned debut briefing and questions about her legal credentials. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a hard look at the hidden costs of cross-border commerce. The U.S. attorney for the Western District of Texas put it bluntly this past July: nothing crosses into or out of Mexico without the approval and payment of Mexican drug cartels. That statement came as the Justice Department prosecuted the Scoular Company, a Nebraska-based agricultural trading firm, under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Scoular authorized more than four hundred thousand dollars in bribes to Mexican officials between 2015 and 2019, avoiding roughly six and a half million in inspection fees. Some of those proceeds, prosecutors say, ultimately benefited cartel associates. The company agreed to pay more than ten million dollars in penalties. A separate 2025 indictment against Los Angeles freight forwarder Sport LA alleges direct kickbacks to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to facilitate billions in shipments. As Phillip Linderman writes for The American Conservative, these cases are not isolated incidents but windows into a vast complex of corruption that has a stranglehold on the Mexican state. Linderman argues that the NAFTA-era assumption that trade would modernize Mexican institutions and defeat the cartels has simply not panned out. Instead, the cartels have embedded themselves in legitimate commerce, taking their cut of extortion, protection payments, fuel theft, and shipping. Major U.S. investors like General Motors, Walmart, and Constellation Brands quietly absorb the security costs. With the U.S. Trade Representative now seeking public comment ahead of the 2027 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, Linderman says Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan—one that reckons with the fact that growing commerce is also growing the cartels. Turning overseas, the war with Iran has reached day 232, and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply escalated. Four tankers came under attack in the last day alone, and roughly two dozen vessels have been hit over the past two weeks, making October the worst period for shipping since the opening weeks of the war. Two ships were struck by projectiles on Friday, and two supertankers reportedly struck mines on Saturday. The IRGC Navy, according to Iranian state media, declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed." Also on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had transmitted a seven-day plan to Washington, by way of Qatar, to reopen the Strait. The choice, he said, now rests with the United States. Luke Nicastro, writing for The American Conservative, notes the pressure such a shutdown places on American consumers: AAA now reports the average price of regular gasoline in the United States at $4.31 a gallon, with diesel at $6.33. At the White House, Katie Zacharia confirmed Saturday on X that she is no longer serving as press secretary, calling it an honor to have worked for President Trump. Zacharia, who was relatively unknown before her selection, began the job on Monday and gave her debut press briefing on Tuesday. That performance was widely panned, including by other White House officials, and she faced additional criticism over allegations that she had represented herself as an attorney despite not having passed the bar exam. As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, the Trump administration moved on Friday to remove Zacharia from her post, making hers the shortest tenure of any White House press secretary in American history. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 17th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues Trump has become a president of inflation and war, with the Iran conflict driving an energy price spike that threatens a midterm bloodbath for Republicans. As the Iran war reaches day 231, Trump floats striking Pickaxe Mountain and refuses to rule out the mother of all bombs, while Brent crude hovers near 106 dollars and gas climbs to 4.33 a gallon. A new book by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick examines how the Israel lobby has grown richer and more aggressive since Mearsheimer and Walt, even as Israel's standing with American voters has collapsed. and now for the details. We begin with the political and economic storm clouds gathering over the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. The latest consumer price index shows inflation back up to 3.7 percent. President Trump's approval on the economy sits at just under 34 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, and on inflation specifically, nearly 70 percent of Americans disapprove. A recent Fox News poll put that disapproval number at 77 percent. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, these conditions are the result of the president's own choices. Antle argues the biggest driver of the recent price spike is energy costs tied to the war with Iran, a conflict Trump was warned by his own team would prompt Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off oil supplies. Antle draws a direct parallel to Joe Biden, who was similarly warned that pushing another round of COVID-era stimulus would fuel inflation and cost his party its majorities. Both men, Antle writes, ignored the warnings. Trump had routed the neoconservatives in his primary runs, yet he has now delivered them the war with Iran that George W. Bush never did. Antle notes that tariffs have added to voter unease about prices, but tariffs at least were part of the campaign. A war with Iran, he says, was not. Trump argues the inflation is a small price to pay for stopping an Iranian bomb. Antle counters that most voters don't see it that way, and that Trump himself was ready to end the fighting back in June. The president, Antle concludes, is now furiously campaigning in the reddest parts of the country, trying to prevent an electoral bloodbath of his own making. Staying with the Iran conflict, now in its 231st day. In an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, President Trump signaled a possible expansion of the air campaign, telling the network that the United States may need to hit Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground site believed central to Iran's nuclear program. In his words, quote, we're looking at Pickaxe Mountain. We may have to go there. We'll take a shot at that one. We'll knock it out fast, end quote. The president also declined to rule out using the GBU-43, the so-called mother of all bombs, against Iranian targets. Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative that the regional war continues to widen. Saudi forces announced the interception of multiple missiles and drones on Friday, following a deadly Houthi strike on the presidential palace in Aden earlier in the week. Fighting is also reported around Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city. Meanwhile, Iran's army chief, General Mohammad Akraminia, suggested on X that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if U.S. forces leave the region, adding that if they don't leave, Iran will expel them. Nicastro notes the market impact for American families. Brent crude is trading near 106 dollars a barrel. AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at 4 dollars and 33 cents, and diesel at 6 dollars and 33 cents a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Friday, October 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham is clinging to a one-point lead over Democrat Annie Andrews, as voter anger over the Iran war and six-dollar diesel threatens to flip a seat her brother Lindsey won by ten points in 2020. Jack Hunter reports that unease over the seat passing by "bloodright," combined with lingering support for America First primary challenger Ralph Norman, has some conservatives floating a write-in campaign against the appointed senator. Jude Russo argues that Ukraine's reported exhaustion of Patriot interceptors exposes the hard arithmetic of a depleted American arsenal, and warns that trying to sustain two major wars across two theaters is madness. and now for the details. We begin in South Carolina, where a Senate race that should be a Republican walkover has turned into a dead heat. Senator Darline Graham, appointed in July to fill out the term of her late brother Lindsey Graham, is clinging to a one-point lead over Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, according to late September polls from Trafalgar and Insider Advantage. A Rasmussen survey released Friday put Graham at forty-nine, Andrews at forty-five. For context, Lindsey Graham won reelection in 2020 by ten points. Andrews has centered her campaign on rising gasoline and diesel prices, tying them directly to the ongoing war with Iran — and reminding voters that Senator Graham voted three times to continue that war. In Sunday night's debate, Graham defended the war, invoked peace through strength, and pledged to stand with Israel, even blaming Democrats for Iran's nuclear program. As Jack Hunter reports for The American Conservative, Hunter — himself a South Carolinian — still expects Graham to win, but says the closeness of the race would be unthinkable absent the political context created by Trump's war. Many conservatives who had backed Lindsey's America First primary challenger, Representative Ralph Norman, are uneasy about a Senate seat passing by what Hunter calls bloodright, and some are even organizing a write-in campaign. Hunter notes House Speaker Mike Johnson's recent attempt to blame fuel prices on the Strait of Hormuz rather than on Republican policy — a dodge, Hunter writes, that South Carolina voters are unlikely to buy. Turning to the war in Ukraine. CNN reported Thursday that Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptor missiles, following days of friction between Washington and Kiev over intelligence-sharing, internet support, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Two weeks ago, Axios reported that the United States had moved Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect Gulf energy infrastructure from Iranian attack. As Jude Russo writes for The American Conservative, material reality is beginning to bite. Russo argues that the White House's reported cooling toward Ukraine may simply reflect the hard arithmetic of a depleted arsenal: there are only so many missiles to go around, and the United States will not sacrifice its own personnel and economic security for Kiev. He cites Jennifer Kavanagh's reporting in TAC that continued operations in Iran will come at the cost of readiness in other theaters. Russo notes the dynamic that has long bedeviled negotiations — when Russia struggles, Ukraine stiffens; when Ukraine struggles, Russia presses on — and expresses doubt that President Trump's deal waiving sanctions on Russian diesel will meaningfully soften Moscow's position. Russo does not conceal his frustration. The limits of the American defense-industrial base, he writes, have long been visible, as obvious as an iceberg on the horizon. Trying to sustain two major wars in two theaters, he concludes, is madness — and, he adds, don't even mention Taiwan. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 15th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Trump's surprise diesel deal with Putin has shattered trust with Kiev, prompting Zelensky to call the arrangement dishonest and Trump to suggest Ukraine needs a new president, with Ted Snider arguing the real win for Moscow is decoupling U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war itself. U.S. inflation climbed to 3.7 percent in September as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher, even as Trump hinted at expanded action against Iran and the Saudi–Houthi war escalated with strikes on Riyadh and Aramco's headquarters. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as ambassador to Greece amid corruption allegations, including a reported request for $100,000 from a Trump donor in exchange for administration access. and now for the details. We begin with a diplomatic rupture between Washington and Kiev. Last Friday, while Ukrainian negotiators were meeting with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Miami, President Trump announced he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under the arrangement, Moscow will lift its export ban on diesel fuel and supply hundreds of thousands of tons to the global market in the coming months, eventually totaling nearly five million tons. In exchange, the U.S. Treasury will issue a temporary general license allowing Russia to sell diesel through April of next year. Ukrainian negotiators left Miami in anger, skipped the second day of talks, and President Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest." Hours later, Ukraine struck a Russian oil refinery. Trump responded sharply, suggesting it was time for Ukraine to find a new president. As Ted Snider reports, the economic effects of the deal will likely be modest on both sides. Russia's diesel surplus would have found buyers anyway, and the volumes involved are small compared with daily global consumption. The real significance, Snider argues, is political and symbolic. Moscow has secured an economic arrangement with Washington without making any concessions in the Ukraine peace negotiations. That unshackling of U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war, Snider writes, is the true Russian victory. Meanwhile, Witkoff and Kushner have warned Kiev that intelligence sharing could be cut, Elon Musk has backed Trump's call to replace Zelensky, and SpaceX has reportedly imposed limits on some Starlink services inside Ukraine, disrupting combat drone missions. Turning to the Middle East and its cost at home. U.S. inflation jumped to 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent the month before, as conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the figures on Wednesday. It was the first monthly rise since May. President Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Alaska, again hinted at expanded hostilities against Iran, telling the crowd, "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're gonna do a number." The Atlantic and other outlets have reported the White House has been pressing the Pentagon to prepare plans for imminent strikes, though Trump denied he would act before the November midterms. From Tehran, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Ozmaei, challenged U.S. warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz, saying his forces were "impatient to sink American warships." As Andrew Day reports, the war between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis also escalated Wednesday, with explosions heard in Riyadh and the Houthis striking the headquarters of Saudi oil company Aramco, pledging further attacks. The inflation data underscores how a distant war is beginning to reach into American household budgets. In Washington personnel news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece, resigned Tuesday amid corruption allegations. The Wall Street Journal reported she engaged in repeated misconduct, including a threat against a host nation official and influence peddling. In one instance, Guilfoyle allegedly asked a Trump donor for one hundred thousand dollars to pay down her credit card bill, promising administration access in return. White House press secretary Katie Zacharia confirmed earlier Tuesday that the administration had asked Guilfoyle to step down. In her resignation statement, Guilfoyle thanked the president and denied wrongdoing, calling the allegations false and pledging to defend her reputation. President Trump addressed the matter later that day, saying, "She was doing a good job, but we didn't like what we were reading." Andrew Day has the story for TAC. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, October 14th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day argues Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Athens address on Western civilization handed Tehran a propaganda victory by casting ancient Persia as an enemy of the West, reinforcing the impression that Washington seeks to annihilate Iranian culture itself. David Brady contends that Anthropic chief Dario Amodei's call to "pace the frontier" of AI development would entrench an industry cartel, enriching established players while smothering open-source rivals and smaller competitors under the weight of new regulation. Scott Greer weighs in on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's plan to execute Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan by firing squad on a live broadcast, warning that while the method is defensible, televising the killing risks turning Hasan into a martyr abroad and eroding support for capital punishment at home. and now for the details. We begin with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose recent address on Western civilization, delivered in Athens against the backdrop of the Acropolis, is drawing scrutiny for its treatment of Iran and ancient Persia. In the speech, Rubio invoked the second Persian invasion of Greece and the stand of the 300 Spartans, drawing a line between the ancient Persian empire and the modern Islamic Republic, which he described as a cult of death. Iranian officials seized on the remarks, with a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader saying Rubio's problem is not with the Islamic Revolution but with a strong, independent Iranian civilization. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, the speech was, in his view, a public relations coup for Tehran. Day argues it reinforced the perception that Washington seeks not just regime change but the annihilation of Iranian culture itself—an impression already fed by President Trump's wartime rhetoric. Day notes that other Western thinkers, from Hegel to Nietzsche to Goethe, held pre-Islamic Persian civilization in high esteem, and that even Samuel Huntington framed tensions with Iran in modern political terms, not as a clash with Persian heritage. Day contends that Rubio's framing serves an Israeli-shaped vision of the West crafted to justify ongoing war, and he suggests the secretary should walk the remarks back and acknowledge Persia's cultural contributions before further damage is done. Turning to the business of artificial intelligence, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei has published an essay urging AI companies and the federal government to, in his phrase, pace the frontier—slowing development through voluntary cooperation among firms and new regulation. Amodei warns of economic disruption, biological and cyber threats, and the possibility of losing human control over AI systems. Writing for The American Conservative, David Brady asks the classic question: who benefits? Brady argues that Amodei's proposals would, in effect, build an AI cartel that massively advantages large, established players like Anthropic itself. He notes that the evaluators Amodei favors have ties back to Anthropic—one key safety research outfit is funded in part by Open Philanthropy, whose co-founder now works at Anthropic and is married to its president, Dario Amodei's sister. Brady draws historical parallels to General Electric's Depression-era cartelization push that shaped the National Recovery Administration, and to the old railroad cartels that used published rates to lock out competition. He warns that burdensome rules would strangle open-source developers and smaller firms in the cradle, that calls for coordination with China would blunt competitors like DeepSeek, and that none of the current frontier labs are consistently profitable—giving them strong reasons to prefer regulated stasis over genuine competition. Brady's conclusion: the measures may fatten incumbents' bottom lines, but the bill will land on the American public. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced last week that Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, will be executed by firing squad—and that the execution will be broadcast live. The announcement drew a cool reception. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana said it would coarsen society. House Speaker Mike Johnson warned it could become a recruiting tool for future terrorists. Vice President J.D. Vance is reportedly not a fan, and President Trump has denied involvement in the decision. Writing for The American Conservative, Scott Greer argues that the firing squad itself is a sound choice—more effective and, in his view, more honest than lethal injection, which he says invites botched executions like the recent Christa Pike case in Tennessee. But Greer contends that livestreaming the killing is a serious miscalculation. Americans in 2026, he writes, are not the crowds of the 1870s. He points to how video of police shootings and immigration enforcement incidents has repeatedly shifted public sympathy toward the subjects