The Bayesian Conspiracy

Crit-rat Vaden Masrani of the Increments podcast joins us to talk about the difference between Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Rationalism. We get kinda side-tracked, Eneasz isn’t happy about it.

LINKS
Vaden’s Podcast: Increments
Eneasz’s post about this episode
Winter 2027 AFFINE Alignment Seminar
Takeoff Conference
GPU World Short Story Contest
Economies of Force— Seth Dickinson’s short story
TBC 267 – Our HuggingFace Hack Episode
Adam Majmudar on the Interpretability Breakthrough
The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson
Scott Alexander’s Open Letter to Steven Pinker on AI
Dillon Plunkett on the AI Pain Axis
TBC 245 – Our AI Welfare Episode with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell
TBC 218 – Our Bentham’s Bulldog Episode
Vaden on Learning Bayesian Statistics #160: Bayesian Statistics vs Epistemology
The Precipice by Toby Ord
Beautiful Probability — Eliezer Yudkowsky
When (Not) To Use Probabilities — Eliezer Yudkowsky
No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws — Eliezer Yudkowsky
Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years by Vaclav Smil
A Case Against Strong Longtermism— Vaden Masrani
The Case for Strong Longtermism — Greaves and MacAskill (September 2019 Draft)
Pascal’s Mugging

00:00:01 – Intro & Feedback
00:20:02 – Vadan on Critical Rationalism
01:54:55 – Follow-up
01:58:51 – Thank a Supporter

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

LessWrong Sequence Posts Coming Up Next:

Returning in 2027!

Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven

See this video on YouTube

Apply to the Illiad Intensive

Out of this Box – the AI Musical

A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast.

LINKS
Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund
TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE
OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns
Clause stopped cheating
Anthropic gave their AI a biolab
Department of War going after Effective Altruism
The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social movement”
Our Episode #28 – Effective Altruism
AI Pain Vector found
AI Torture Chamber built
The Curve impressions
The first anti-slutcon tweet :/
SFF announcing they are defunding Wentworth
Habryka re Wentworth
HPMOR is a Tomione ship!
The “Hard Problem” in a nutshell
BayesWatch

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

on hiatus. maybe returning someday

Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience.

See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

We talk to Keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares.

LINKS
Keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack, don’t tell him we linked it!)
Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on TikTok, Insta, YouTube, and Twitter

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

on hiatus. maybe returning someday

We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big.

LINKS
Rick Rescorla, a 9/11 hero we talk about
Our previous episodes on The Void pt1 and pt2, and GPT3
Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner withThe Guild of the Rose, check them out.

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron.

LINKS
The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments
The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC
I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com
BayesWatch
Ordinary Abundance

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback
00:54:58.000 – Specificity
01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner withThe Guild of the Rose, check them out.

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom!

Vishal’s Blog

Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest

Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared.

LINKS
The Other Sexual Orientation
A Bad Tweet
The Sex & Sensibility Podcast
The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi

Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video

00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident
00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation
00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet
01:29:57 – Guild of the Rose
01:32:16 – Thank the Supporter!

Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner withThe Guild of the Rose, check them out.

LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:

on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
plzdontkillus – https://portal.plzdontkillus.com/home?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

Original video:

Jessiah Mellot talks about HPMOR, and the video essay he made about HPMOR for PlzDontKillUs.

Watch this on Youtube here

see Jessiah’s video essay here

First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus content for […]

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In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy […]

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