The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

Feedlot placements just hit a record low for September, down 12.1 percent from last year and the lowest since USDA began tracking the series in 1996. With feeder steer prices climbing and beef supplies still tight, the pipeline behind today's cattle looks thinner than the headline inventory suggests. In the Tuesday Market Update for November 3, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle prices. Steers weighing 500 to 549 pounds averaged $411.74 per hundredweight, up $10.77 from a month ago. Steers weighing 600 to 649 pounds averaged $370.05, up $8.42 over the same period. The forecast shows lighter calves holding momentum while heavier classes flatten out. The episode also covers USDA's new negotiated fed cattle price report for the Southern Plains and what thin cash trade means for price discovery. Brock and Jim look at CoBank's view on rising beef imports, USDA's 94.2 million head cattle inventory, and the 4 percent drop in red meat production. The October Cattle on Feed report is examined, including why inventory looks flat while placements and marketings fell sharply. Jim shares stories from 1999 and 2003, and the hosts offer practical takeaways on watching cash trade, tracking placements, and using risk management tools to protect margins.

September feedlot placements fell 12.1% from a year ago, a record low for the month, according to USDA's October Cattle on Feed report. Marketings were also the lowest for September since the series began in 1996, and that tight supply is shaping the cattle market from feedlot to freezer. In this Friday Week in Review, Brock and Jim break down a choppy week for cattle futures. Prices rallied early on the bullish report and cheaper grain, then slipped on technical selling and sluggish cash trade. They also review feeder cattle prices: 500-549 pound steers at $407.87 per hundredweight and 600-649 pound steers at $364.21. Lighter calves are leading the market. The hosts cover USDA slaughter and cold storage data, with red meat production down 4% and beef in freezers down 1% from last year. Jim recalls how scarce calves drew aggressive bidding in 2004. The conversation then widens to global feed, fertilizer, and dairy news: the Philippines' larger corn import quota, EU soymeal rules, digestate fertilizer research, falling EU dairy imports, and Danone's earnings. Producers get three things to watch next week: cash trade, feed costs, and buyer competition.

September cattle placements and marketings were the lowest for the month since USDA began tracking in 1996, and the squeeze is showing up in feeder calf prices. With 500-549 pound steers averaging $407.87 per hundredweight and carrying a healthy premium over futures, producers with weaned calves hold the leverage. Brock and Jim break down the October Cattle on Feed report, which showed 11.372 million head on feed October 1, slightly below last year. They explain why low placements point to tight supply rather than weak demand, and why heavy fall calf movement doesn't contradict that story. They also cover the cash fat cattle breakout after seven weeks in a narrow range, with October live cattle settling at $227.55, and the warning sign of negative packer margins. The conversation then turns to feed and weather: a shrinking U.S. drought area, corn harvest progress, winter wheat emergence, and Ukrainian grain export disruptions that show cheap feed may not last. Jim looks back at the drought of 1996 and how different today's setup is. Brock closes with what to watch: model forecasts that ease lighter feeder prices over four weeks, packer bid behavior, and feed costs.

USDA will add a regional negotiated cash cattle report on Monday, October 26, pooling fed cattle trade from Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Cash trade has thinned and CME futures have hit multi-month highs before pulling back, so the added price transparency arrives at a pivotal moment for cattle producers. In this Week in Review for October 23, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle market. Medium and Large No. 1 steers in the 500-549 lb class averaged $404.06/cwt, up $7.89 from a month ago. The 600-649 lb class averaged $363.58. The forecast favors lighter calves holding value while heavier weights soften. The hosts also cover drought and pasture conditions. U.S. drought area fell 5.7% on the week, but pasture and range ratings were just 22% good to excellent as of October 11. Corn harvest reached 52% complete and winter wheat planting hit 69%. They also look at uneven feeder and stocker supplies heading into the fall run. Jim shares lessons from the 1996 drought and the start of mandatory price reporting in 2001, along with practical marketing advice for cow-calf producers, stocker operators and buyers.

New World screwworm is back in West Texas cattle. USDA confirmed a case in Pecos County on October 10th, just days after a detection in a dog in Brewster County. With feeder supplies running heavy and pastures still stressed, producers face tough sell-or-hold decisions. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $404.06/cwt and 600-649 pound steers are at $363.58/cwt. The model forecast is split, with lightweights firming and heavier calves softening into November. Jim shares his memories of the late-1980s Libya screwworm outbreak and the sterile fly program that ended it. They also discuss why the sterile-fly supply from Mexico matters so much today. They also cover feeder and stocker marketings running 19.3% above the three-year average. Drought coverage is shrinking, but only 22% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, while corn conditions are improving. The episode closes with tightening global beef supplies, the October WASDE report, live cattle futures at a ten-week high, and questions about consumer demand after the agriculture secretary's comments on beef prices.

exican feeder cattle imports are barely trickling across the border, with just 400 head crossing at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, a port that once handled roughly 40 percent of the flow. A new screwworm detection in Brewster County, Texas, makes a quick reopening even less likely and keeps feeder supplies tight. Brock and Jim break down this week's feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $402.17 per hundredweight, up $1.20 on the week and $19.52 from a month ago. Heavier 600-649 pound steers slipped $2.69 to $358.94. The model points to a small near-term pullback, then firmer prices into November. They also explain why producers shouldn't count on import relief when pricing calves and replacement stockers. The episode also covers volatile CME cattle futures, which rallied to a three-month high after USDA raised its 2026 corn harvest outlook, then dropped on profit-taking before moving higher again. Brock and Jim discuss why setting hedging targets and risk triggers ahead of time beats reacting to headlines. Finally, they review USDA's October WASDE, which lowers 2027 beef production, raises beef imports, and leaves cattle prices unchanged. They also look at why carcass quality and marbling matter as imports grow, and how finish weight decisions affect returns.

Feeder cattle prices climbed again this week, with 500-549 lb steers reaching $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago, even as just 17.8% of U.S. cattle purchases now trade on the negotiated cash market. With feeder supplies historically tight and pasture conditions deteriorating, Brock and Jim break down what's driving the rally and what producers should watch next. Brock and Jim review the Friday, October 2 market, including feeder steer prices, price forecasts pointing to a small dip before a push higher, and a choppy week for live and feeder cattle futures. They explain why short-term futures moves rest on a thin cash base and why producers should know exactly how their own cattle are priced. The hosts also examine the supply picture. The July Cattle report showed the beef cow herd down just 0.7%, feeder and stocker marketings ran more than 28% below the three-year average in mid-September, and August placements and marketings were lower. Falling corn futures and swelling corn stocks are helping feedlot margins, but only 19% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, and drought areas are still up 12% from a month ago. Jim shares lessons from the drought of '96 and the thin cash markets of '99.

Feeder steer prices are surging on heavy volume, with 500-549 lb steers at $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago. Meanwhile, negotiated cash trade has shrunk to just 17.8% of cattle purchases, and feeder supplies are tightening into 2027. In this Tuesday Market Update for September 29, Brock and Jim break down the latest cattle prices and model forecasts, which show a small pullback next week before a push higher. Six hundred to 649 lb steers are at $362.11, and the heavy trading volume adds weight to the rally. The deep dives cover futures volatility as tight U.S. inventories collide with packer processing disruptions, and why the shrinking negotiated cash market matters for price discovery and producer bargaining power. They also review the September Cattle on Feed report, where feedlot inventory rose 0.7% to 11.16 million head even as placements and marketings declined, and August marketings hit a series low. Finally, they examine the Santa Teresa, New Mexico, border crossing reopening, which handles 43% of Mexican cattle imports, and the New World screwworm risk after a detection in Grant County, New Mexico. Jim shares stories from 1999 and 2003 on how market structure and border decisions move prices. Producers get practical takeaways on pricing mechanisms, replacement costs, and risk management.

Cattle markets are caught in a tug-of-war: feeder cattle prices bounced hard week-over-week even as futures whipsawed through a third straight losing session before rallying on surprise placement numbers. Add in the lowest August marketings since 1996 and a screwworm case popping up just two days before a critical border crossing is set to reopen, and producers have a lot of moving pieces to track this week. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the latest CME feeder cattle data, with 500-549 weight steers and 600-649 weight steers both showing strong weekly gains but softer month-over-month numbers. They dig into the September WASDE report's lowered cattle price forecasts against rising corn costs, with Jim drawing parallels to the 1996 Corn Belt drought that squeezed feedlot margins for months. The conversation shifts to the latest Cattle on Feed report, where historically low marketings point to a tightening feeder cattle supply heading into 2027, a trend Jim compares to the classic supply-and-demand squeeze he's seen throughout his cattle trading career. The episode closes with a look at the New World screwworm situation near the New Mexico border, where a new case in Grant County threatens the planned September 24th reopening of the Santa Teresa crossing, which handles 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Jim shares his experience from the 1985 screwworm outbreak in South Texas, offering perspective on how long border disruptions can linger even after containment succeeds. Together, Brock and Jim unpack what all three storylines mean for producers navigating a genuinely volatile cattle market.

A major New Mexico livestock port is reopening next week after zero new screwworm cases were detected, and it's already sending shockwaves through cattle futures. With Santa Teresa handling 43% of all cattle imports crossing the border, this reopening is the driving force behind a genuinely choppy week in the feeder cattle market. In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim break down the market snapshot showing divergence between weight classes, with 500-549 weight steers bouncing 12.12 week-over-week even as they remain down nearly 29 dollars month-over-month. The conversation shifts to the Santa Teresa port reopening set for September 24th, with Jim drawing on his experience from similar border crossing openings in 1993 to explain why short-term price dips from import news rarely derail long-term fundamentals. The duo also dig into this week's wild cattle futures swings, hitting one-month highs Wednesday before falling on port news Friday, while highlighting Cattle Range's Ten-Day Market-Strength Index showing a constructive 6.68% gain despite daily volatility. They cover the September WASDE report's lowered price forecasts and weak packer demand, plus pork market pressure from hog futures hitting contract lows. Finally, Brock and Jim examine what might be the week's most bullish signal: feeder and stocker cattle marketings running 30.7% below the three-year average, pointing toward a genuine herd rebuilding phase as producers hold back cattle rather than rushing to sell. With next week's Cattle on Feed report on deck, this episode sets up the key storylines shaping cattle prices heading into the fourth quarter.

Feeder cattle prices just dropped nearly $47 in a month, and futures traders are already pricing in risk from a confirmed screwworm case in southern Texas—the first U.S. horse infection near the border. With USDA slashing its 2026-2027 cattle price outlook while corn costs climb, producers are facing a tangled mix of short-term futures strength and long-term caution. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash price data on 500-549 and 600-649 weight class steers, both trending lower on average volume, with forecasts pointing toward stabilization after the recent slide. They dig into the September WASDE report's lowered price forecasts and weigh it against Friday's futures rally, drawing a direct parallel to the 1996 corn price spike and the costly lesson of chasing a rally that never came. The conversation shifts to animal health, covering the confirmed screwworm case in South Texas, the resulting movement restrictions, and Jim's firsthand memories of the 1976 outbreak, plus a new H5N1 study on California dairy farms showing transmission through air, wastewater, and asymptomatic cows. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim cover trade policy developments including an Oval Office cattle industry executive order signing, an open letter addressing beef price politicization, reassuring data on Brazilian beef imports, China's new agricultural insurance expansion, and USMEF's trade delegation to Japan supporting U.S. beef exports.

Feeder cattle prices just took a brutal hit — 500-549 lb steers are down nearly $49 per hundredweight in just thirty days, and the 600-649 lb class isn't far behind. Brock and Jim break down whether this correction is the start of something bigger or just a market catching its breath before the next move. In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim dig into three major storylines shaping the cattle market. First, they unpack the tangled trade policy landscape, from new executive orders on beef and cattle to Canada's retaliatory tariffs and Brazil's shifting export mix, weighing whether political noise or market fundamentals will ultimately drive prices. Jim shares a personal flashback to the NAFTA panic of 1993 that adds real perspective to today's tariff headlines. Next, they examine global feed grain and soybean trends, including China's softening hog demand and an unexpected new demand driver: GLP-1 drug users turning to soy-based protein. Finally, the guys tackle animal health and biosecurity, covering the latest screwworm detection numbers, a new pest biosecurity R&D platform planned for San Antonio, and Jim's memories of the original screwworm eradication program from the 1980s. Whether you're tracking feeder cattle futures, watching trade policy fallout, or keeping an eye on biosecurity threats, this episode delivers the market intelligence producers need heading into the next month.

Only 18% of pasture and range conditions are rated good to excellent this week, down sharply from 38% a year ago, and drought coverage across the lower 48 has expanded over 23% in the past month alone. With Tyson Foods slashing its profit outlook twice in one month and cattle futures cooling from August highs, producers are facing a market squeeze from multiple directions at once. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash cattle prices, with 500-549 weight steers down to $372.81/cwt and 600-649 weights at $341.82/cwt, both retreating from last month's peak. They dig into the Tyson margin story and draw a direct parallel to the 1999 IBP packer squeeze, warning producers to watch kill rates and buyer pickiness on weight and grade as leading indicators. The pair also unpack competing federal policy moves—Representative Figures' bill targeting the 300,000 metric ton beef import allowance versus Trump's executive orders on wolf protection and country-of-origin labeling—highlighting the fragmented approach to trade policy right now. The episode closes with a deep dive into deteriorating drought conditions nationwide, Jim's firsthand account of the 1996 West Texas drought liquidation, and why protecting core herd genetics may pay off more than panic-selling. International context from France's billion-euro drought aid package rounds out a wide-ranging discussion on cattle prices, packer margins, beef trade policy, and range conditions heading into fall.

Cattle prices are cratering as feeder steers drop nearly $25 per hundredweight in just five weeks, and a controversial tariff proclamation benefiting Brazilian beef imports has producers demanding Washington "stay out of the way." Meanwhile, pasture conditions have collapsed to just 18% Good-to-Excellent—down from 38% a year ago—signaling a supply squeeze that could reshape the market for years to come. In this Friday wrap for September 4th, Brock and Jim break down a brutal week of cattle market data, with both lightweight and heavyweight feeder classes showing steep week-over-week and month-over-month declines. They dig into Proclamation 11059's tariff holiday on Brazilian beef trimmings, JBS executive Joesley Batista's direct meeting with Trump, and the DOJ's expanded antitrust probe now targeting major retailers like Walmart and Costco. The duo also tackles wild futures market volatility, with the August live cattle contract swinging on tariff speculation, border news, and contract expiration dynamics. The episode's third deep dive tackles the deteriorating drought and range conditions across the country, with corn crop ratings and pasture conditions both declining sharply compared to last year. Jim draws parallels to the 1988 drought and 1995 Mexican peso crisis, offering historical perspective on how cattlemen have weathered similar supply shocks and policy uncertainty before. Producers looking for guidance on basis levels, hedging strategy, and marketing decisions amid this policy-driven volatility will find plenty of actionable takeaways in this week's discussion.

Feeder cattle prices are sliding fast, and a controversial tariff waiver on Brazilian beef imports is only adding to the chaos. Brock and Jim break down why the cash market and policy headlines are pulling cattle futures in opposite directions this week. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim dig into the weekly cattle price snapshot, with 500-549 weight steers down over $24 from a month ago and forecasts pointing to further softness through September. They unpack Proclamation 11059, the 90-day tariff waiver on imported ground beef that's benefiting Brazil and squeezing Argentina's export momentum, plus a separate processing order aimed at breaking up packer concentration. Jim draws a sharp parallel to the 1989 Meat Import Act trigger, offering a veteran's perspective on how government intervention in beef markets has played out before. The conversation also covers the phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports at the Douglas, Arizona port of entry, a new screwworm case detected in Sonora, and the FDA's emergency authorization of a generic ivermectin treatment. Jim shares firsthand memories of the 1976 screwworm outbreak and the joint US-Mexico eradication program that beat it decades ago. Finally, Brock and Jim examine the shrinking producer share of the retail beef dollar, down from 63 cents in 1980 to just 37 cents in 2021, and what that means for herd rebuilding decisions amid ongoing drought and rising input costs. It's a packed episode covering trade policy, animal disease risk, and the economics squeezing cattle producers even as headline prices stay strong.

Feeder cattle futures took a beating this week, with 500-549 weight steers sliding $22 off their July highs and 600-649 weight steers forecast to drop another $27 in just seven days. Three separate down days, three separate causes — and Brock and Jim break down why the cattle market got hit from every direction at once. In this Friday wrap of Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim unpack the week's biggest cattle market news: the Trump administration's move to waive beef tariffs and expand lean trimming imports, the phased reopening of the US-Mexico border for cattle after screwworm concerns, and a weakening consumer confidence report that piled onto an already jittery cash market. Jim draws parallels to the 1999 beef trimming import debate and the 2005 Canadian border reopening, arguing that markets often react harder to policy headlines than to the actual volume that follows. The two also dig into this week's Cattle on Feed report, which showed record-low July placements and marketings — a sign that despite the short-term price pressure, the underlying cattle supply remains historically tight. Brock and Jim close with practical guidance for producers: don't overreact to a single day's futures swing, watch how import volumes actually materialize over the coming weeks, and track the next Cattle on Feed report closely. This episode covers feeder cattle prices, cash cattle markets, beef import policy, border reopening news, and cattle futures forecasts for the week of August 28, 2026.

Trump's surprise 90-day tariff waiver just cracked open the door to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, and cattle producers are furious—even as feeder cattle prices are already sliding hard and fast. Brock and Jim break down why this move eerily echoes a 1986 trade decision that hammered feeder prices before tight domestic supply forced a rebound, and question whether history is about to repeat itself. This Tuesday Update covers the full market picture: 500-549 weight steers down over $22 in a month, 600-649 weights forecast to keep sliding before stabilizing by mid-September, and a deep dive into the tariff waiver's political and economic fallout, including how producers' share of the retail beef dollar has collapsed from 63 cents in 1980 to just 37 cents today. Brock and Jim also unpack the Mexican border reopening for cattle imports, complicated by rising screwworm detections in Chihuahua and Sonora that could delay the anticipated 150,000-head import estimate. The episode closes with a look at July's cattle marketings—the lowest since 1996—Tyson's plant closure in Joslin, Illinois, and what historically tight supply combined with packer restructuring could mean for leverage shifting back to producers this fall. Jim draws on his own experience from the 1996 drought and the 1986 import policy shift to frame today's headlines in historical context, offering listeners a grounded perspective on where these markets may be headed next.

Feeder cattle prices are sliding hard across the board, and USDA's WASDE report just extended the bearish outlook all the way through 2027. With plant closures, border tariffs looming, and a new screwworm case threatening Mexican import hopes, cattle producers are facing pressure from every direction this week. In this Friday wrap, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures numbers, with 500-549 weight steers down nearly $30 over the past month and 600-649 steers forecast to keep sliding through September. The duo digs into major packing sector shifts, including Tyson's plant closures in Illinois and Utah, Cargill's Fort Morgan facility set to resume production after a labor dispute resolution, and a leadership change at Frick's Quality Meats. They also unpack USDA's lowered cattle price forecasts and the surprising disconnect between tight beef production and weak consumer demand driving the market. The episode closes with a deep dive into border risk, covering the looming US-Canada tariff deadline and a new screwworm case in Ciudad Juárez that threatens to delay Mexican cattle import resumption. Jim draws on decades of market history, from the 1987 IBP consolidation to the 2003 BSE border shutdown, to give producers perspective on how packing consolidation and biosecurity scares have reshaped cattle markets before. Brock and Jim close with practical advice for producers navigating a market where demand, not supply, is currently calling the shots.

Tyson just pulled the trigger on a historic contraction—closing or selling three beef plants while bracing for a staggering $650 million operating loss in fiscal 2026. With roughly 10,000 head per day in processing capacity vanishing almost overnight, Brock and Jim break down why this "historic cattle shortage" is reshaping where producers can even sell their cattle. In this Tuesday update for August 18th, Brock and Jim dig into feeder cattle prices showing real softness, with 500-549 weight steers down $7.80 week-over-week and heavier weights sliding on forecast data through September. They unpack the Tyson plant closures in Joslin, Illinois and Pasco, Washington, and what it means for basis and buyer competition, drawing on Jim's firsthand memory of the Plainview plant closure back in '94. The conversation moves into cattle futures volatility, with fund and technical selling pushing prices to two-and-a-half week lows amid growing doubts about consumer beef demand—plus Jim's gripping account of the 2003 BSE crisis and the risk-management lessons it still teaches today. The episode wraps with a broader look at global beef demand trends, including the booming outdoor grilling market, a $136-per-head value-add strategy for weaned calves from Merck Animal Health's Dr. John Hutcheson, and international headwinds from Ukraine's agricultural liquidity crisis to Brazil's MBRF profit decline. They close with a nod to the ongoing MCOOL labeling debate and its ties to the packer capacity conversation shaping this week's cattle market news.

Tyson is anchoring its entire beef business around just three plants, JBS is shutting down harvesting at its Souderton, Pennsylvania facility today, and USDA is calling this one of the most historic cattle shortages on record. Yet despite that tightening supply, USDA just lowered its cattle price forecasts through 2027 — a contradiction that has Brock and Jim digging into what's really driving the cattle market this week. In this Friday wrap for August 14th, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle price data, showing short-term stabilization in the 500-549 and 600-649 weight classes even as both remain sharply down from a month ago. They cover the meatpacking industry's rapid restructuring, including Tyson's three-plant strategy, JBS's Souderton conversion and $102 million net loss, and major CEO transitions at U.S. Premium Beef and JBS. The duo also examines a wave of weather disruption hitting cattle production across three continents — a potential super El Niño threatening South American drought, British Columbia wildfires forcing livestock evacuations, and Austrian heat pushing cattle off Alpine pastures early — alongside expanding U.S. drought coverage. Jim shares firsthand stories from the 1993 IBP plant closure and the 1998 drought to give producers historical context for today's headlines. The episode wraps with a look at the August WASDE report, softening fed cattle demand, surging ground beef prices, and what it all means for producer margins heading into fall.