The DeFi Report

Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a bear market. So why is Mike still bullish on Bitcoin? Mike and Ryan unpack the stealth selloff in stocks, AI financing fears, rising yields, and the looming midterms. They also break down Bitcoin’s stronger market structure, signs of seller exhaustion, and the $76K support level that could put the early-bull thesis to the test.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:16 Crypto’s Early Bull Faces a Wall of Worry
3:48 Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Test and Market Catalysts
6:41 Who’s Buying Bitcoin—and Will They Hold?
13:14 ETF Flows, Miner Confidence, and Altcoin Resets
17:48 Ethereum’s Struggle Against Bitcoin
22:19 Is a Stealth Bear Market Already Underway?
28:19 Has the Worst of the Market Selloff Passed?
33:05 Midterms, Market Risks, and Political Uncertainty
39:03 Bitcoin’s Key Test: The 50-Week Moving Average

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Fear has returned to crypto, but the next rally may be closer than it looks. Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s resilience amid a sharp altcoin selloff, the holder rotation driving its consolidation, and why seller exhaustion could set up the next move. They also discuss the $87K breakout level, mounting stress in AI debt markets, Bitcoin’s divergence from the Nasdaq, and whether quality altcoins are becoming attractive again.

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RESOURCES

The Watch List: ETH Q3 Update
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-eth-q3-update

The Watch List: SOL Q3 Update
https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-sol-q3-update

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:13 Bitcoin Holds Strong as Altcoins Fearful
4:00 Bitcoin’s Cycle Signals & Capitulation
11:19 Bitcoin Dominance and Strategy’s Next Move
17:51 AI Debt Fears & Credit Spreads
22:30 Treasury Yields, Stocks, & Capital Flows
31:42 Debt Risks, Bitcoin, & Government Intervention
35:30 Bitcoin Versus & Nasdaq
39:11 Altcoin Dips and Portfolio Strategy
43:02 Ether, Solana, & Closing Thoughts

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

An early bull market doesn’t always feel bullish. Mike and Ryan compare today’s crypto setup to 2023, when Bitcoin chopped sideways for seven months before its next major rally. They break down Mike’s 90% early-bull conviction, the critical 50-week moving average, and why BTC could remain range-bound between $80K and $95K. Plus, the altcoin reset, whether Robinhood Chain could become this cycle’s Solana, and the macro risks shaping what comes next.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:13 Early Bull Reset

2:42 2023 Market Echo

6:59 Bitcoin At The 50-Week

16:57 Altcoins Versus Bitcoin

26:38 Robinhood Chain Speculation

32:09 CPI And Yields Jump

37:37 Debasement And Policy

40:51 Reset Opportunities In Alts

44:04 Closing The Loop

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is entering a critical decision point. Mike and Ryan break down why a pullback toward $78K could still be healthy, what a move through $90K could unlock, and why Bitcoin’s next move may set the tone for the broader market. They also cover improving macro conditions, stock-market strength, and how to manage risk in the early bull.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:12 Bitcoin’s Next Move
3:56 Zooming Out on Crypto
7:48 The Summer Rebound
11:58 Bitcoin Leads the Cycle
16:41 Profit-Taking Pressure
18:43 Stablecoins and Liquidity
23:19 Macro Shifts and Jobs
26:21 Market Damage Beneath
33:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels
38:00 Breaking 90K Resistance
40:28 Holding Through the Bull
46:28 Investor Journal Close

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Crypto is acting like a bull market even as macro risks keep building. Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin and altcoins are shrugging off rising yields, rate-hike fears, and oil volatility, what the market reset is signaling, and why Mike still believes crypto is early in a new cycle. They also cover the risks that could finally challenge that view.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:24 Macro Second Look
4:01 Crypto Outperforms Macro
6:26 Market Structure Reset
10:12 Macro Risk Tour
20:53 Liquidity and Volatility
24:53 Bull Case Holds
29:23 Stocks and AI Breadth
32:15 Bull Market Price Targets
38:04 New Referral Program

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike is finally ready to call it: Bitcoin has likely entered the early-bull phase. Mike and Ryan break down the Golden Cross, the reclaim of the 50-week moving average, the market-structure reset, and why seller exhaustion has pushed Mike’s confidence to 85%. They also cover fading macro fears, Saylor’s return as a buyer, and the key levels that could confirm or challenge the new cycle.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Early Bull Emerges

4:24 Coin Rotation Strengthens

10:14 Golden Cross Confirmed

12:56 Bull Case Checklist

17:09 Buyers Reappear

22:52 Macro Noise Fades

30:58 Ben Concedes Bull

34:08 Key Levels Ahead

38:12 Riding Winners Higher

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be entering the first inning of a new bull market, and TDR thinks this cycle could be bigger than the last. Mike and Ryan break down the signals that would confirm the shift, the four stages of a crypto cycle, and how they plan to position through each phase. They also cover the sectors showing early strength, why onchain activity matters, and what could drive the next major wave of crypto adoption.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:10 Guide to the Coming Bull Market

3:12 TDR Portfolio Up 95%

6:27 The Four Crypto Cycle Stages

12:54 Early Bull Signals

17:19 How to Play the Early Bull

21:43 The Wealth Creation Phase

30:03 When to Start Going Risk-Off

35:09 Why This Bull Market Could Be Bigger

40:54 Fast DeFi & Social Trading

47:01 Onchain Perps & Lighter

52:00 How to Think Like an Investor

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. Mike and Ryan break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares with early 2023. They also dive into PUMP vs. PONS, Robinhood Chain’s breakout, mobile-first crypto trading, and whether this new wave of risk-taking is just getting started.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:12 Bull Market Setup
3:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels
9:20 Golden Cross Explained
13:33 Alt Season or Not
19:36 2023 Speculation Replay
24:09 PONS and Robinhood Surge
36:20 ETH’s Role in the Rally
39:55 Macro Risks Ahead
43:49 Portfolio Risk Management

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. Mike and Ryan break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K is the key level to watch, and how the Treasury “put” is reshaping the macro backdrop. They also cover Saylor’s return to buying, rising onchain speculation, and whether investors are still early to the next cycle.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
0:18 Bull or September?
3:17 Speed-Running the Cycle Low
17:52 Mixed Signals, Early Bull
26:54 Debasement Trade and Macro
38:50 September Cooldown Ahead
43:19 Mindset and Missed Gains

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin just surged 22% in 48 hours, and Mike’s outlook has flipped with it. Mike and Ryan break down why the cycle lows may now be in, what the latest onchain data says about a potential early bull phase, and how Treasury intervention in long-term yields changed the macro setup. They also cover Strategy’s $1.6B Bitcoin war chest, the return of crypto animal spirits, and the key $81.8K level that could confirm the next bull market.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Regime Shift Begins

2:11 Bullish Catalyst Emerges

6:59 Reading Bitcoin Market Structure

12:20 Capitulation Metrics and Volume

17:01 Crypto Reflexivity Returns

19:58 Treasury Buybacks and Yields

28:56 The 1940s Playbook

35:02 Debasement Trade Reassessment

39:41 Key Bitcoin Levels

42:09 Portfolio Goes Risk On

45:29 Early Bull, Still Active

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. Mike and Ryan unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:13 AI Trade Setup

3:12 On-Chain Milestone

6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall

10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift

14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine

25:24 AI Bull vs Bear

30:21 Real Yields Surge

36:03 Bear Market Outlook

39:04 The Next Fat Pitch

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. Mike and Ryan break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup

3:33 On-Chain Cohorts & Capitulation

10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling

13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold

17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher

26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence

32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead

38:20 Pump Thesis & Cycle Upside

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. Mike and Ryan break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest BTC sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin

2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained

6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check

13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress

16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift

22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ

26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run

34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead

2:36 Market Signals Tighten

6:37 Fed Independence Questioned

11:10 Economy Under Pressure

16:32 Housing Fault Lines

21:14 Dollar Strength Warning

24:17 After the Sell-Off

28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook

31:00 Portfolio Patience

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation
8:10 Time-Based Selloff
13:07 Searching for Demand
16:13 Miners Under Pressure
18:45 Strategy and Saylor
21:25 Iran and Oil Risk
28:28 AI Speculation Peaks
34:06 Macro or On-Chain?
37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch
41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well

10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha

13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market

17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run

23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility

31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors

36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI

42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates

46:33 Final Grade for the Year

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not?

5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto

6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower

12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate

19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check

23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash

34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate

4:57 Key Cycle Indicators

8:39 Rotation Still Missing

14:50 Macro Risks Ahead

27:02 Patience And Returns

30:24 Price Levels To Watch

35:11 Drawdown And Outlook

36:48 More Reports Coming

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base

15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium

20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow

23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles

26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage

32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks

34:29 Miner Capitulation

37:12 Why Four Years?

40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles
5:03 Shallower Drawdowns?
7:22 ETF Flows and Demand
9:34 Saylor’s Canary
15:32 Realized Losses Review
23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq
25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto
28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation
33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split
38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum
40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.