The Guide Post

What if one of the most important numbers in East Coast fisheries management was wrong, and the people in charge didn’t want to hear it?

This week on The Guide Post, ASGA President Tony Friedrich sits down with Dr. Jerald Ault of the University of Miami, to explain how a flawed reading of a 1966 tagging study may have overstated menhaden natural mortality, and why the fix could reshape coastwide allowable catch at significant scale. From tarpon migrations to a closed-door peer review, this is the menhaden episode you need to listen to before ASMFC’s next meeting in November.

Maryland's new young-of-year index was just announced at "5.5", the best since 2018. Last year's index recorded a 4.0. Both of these year classes are worth saving. How do we know? We have been here before.

The 1982 Year Class (an 8.45) came after years of poor spawning. Managers protected it with a Maryland moratorium and strict coastwide rules until the females had spawned. Those fish went on to produce the huge 1989 year class that rebuilt the stock.

This year's 5.5 is about two-thirds of that. In both cases, a decent year class shows up after years of weak spawning. We often struggle to learn from history, but the lesson here is clear: what managers did with the 1982 fish brought striped bass back from rock bottom.

Amendment 3 required states to protect at least 95% of the 1982-class females until they'd spawned at least once, and Maryland shut down harvest entirely from 1985 to 1989. Those fish produced more than 90% of the eggs in 1989, generating a 25.2 index that rebuilt the stock.

Our immediate reaction to today's news is "protect this 2026 year class the way we protected 1982," not that things are improving or that "5.5 is a banner year". The 2025 and 2026 fish are our next chance to right decades of wrongs. ASMFC should protect these fish the way we protected them in 1982. We are teetering on a cliff and cannot afford to waste a decent spawn.

Good spawns don't rebuild a fishery on their own. How managers behave after those spawns paves the path forward.

Striped bass are arriving in Maine, depleted after a massive spawning migration along the Atlantic coast. What they eat next could shape everything from their recovery to the future of the fishery. Abby Remick breaks down the first coastwide striped bass diet study in the Gulf of Maine, revealing what these fish are actually feeding on, why it matters for management, and what anglers and scientists have been missing.

Mario and Jake sit down with Abby, a master's student in Dr. Michelle Staudinger's Lab at the University of Maine, to unpack a highly collaborative project built from Maine's recreational fishing community.

10/01/2026 from the ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Addendum II public hearing.

What the menhaden!?

In the latest episode of The Guide Post, Tony, Mario and Jake examine how a flawed menhaden stock assessment led to detrimental overharvesting of a critical Atlantic resource. The trio makes the case for significantly reducing catch in the coming years to protect the long term viability of the fishery.

There are several videos doing the rounds on social media lately about stocking redfish into Louisiana waters. Redfish are one of Louisiana’s most important game fish. They support a massive recreational fishery, fundamental to the lives of local sportsmen and the State economy. The 2022 Louisiana red drum stock assessment painted a clear picture that the fishery is declining, which matched on-the-water observations from countless guides and anglers in recent years. While the LDWF science supported a substantial reduction in harvest, the political process once again muddied the waters for conservation progress. State-based “conservation” groups pleaded that “one less fish per person was simply too much conservation”. They blamed the menhaden boats for red drum’s problems, often parlayed into arguments about the lack of healthy habitat to support more redfish. Now two years later, these same non profit voices are actively collaborating with the menhaden industry and some of the Gulf’s greatest polluters and violators to supplement the stock with tank-grown, genetically-insufficient hatchery fish. You might be asking: why grow fish if things are so good we don’t need a harvest reduction? The answer is simple: the almighty dollar. Let’s take a peak behind the curtain…

MRIP recalibration is approaching its peak. Now, data revisions show the recreational fishery has been far more overestimated than managers admitted, and the ripple effects reach far beyond one chart. They will reshape the entire future of striped bass management.

Capt. Cody Rubner is joined by Kyle and Grizz, two friendly faces and good souls leading the charge for Soul Fly Co. Their mission is simple: bring people together in an event made by the people, for the people. We'll see you at Soul Fly Boston later this month!

A rapid reaction podcast after a North Carolina hearing for Atlantic bonito management.

The Menhaden fight grows louder, but unfortunately for the resource, the discussions grow murkier. A massive error in the stock assessment has changed the entire management picture. In this episode, Tony Friedrich, Mario Campo and Jake Hardy break down why the Bay Cap, the coastwide TAC, and the push for reallocation all demand your nuanced attention right now if you care about forage fish, stripers, ospreys, whales, or the future of the fishery. In episode 220, we break down how a corrected natural mortality estimate from a 1960s tagging study helped expose an overharvest problem that has quietly added up to hundreds of millions of pounds. This episode translates the mortality math into plain English and explains why the current management response is still not enough. With additional biological and policy context, it’s hard to deny why a coastal stock issue cannot be solved by shuffling quota from one region to another.

Tony and Cody chop it up on some ASGA "to-dos", industry "to-don'ts" and a quality coffee recommendation.

The striped bass fishery has collapsed, the data accounting is warped and the biggest warning signs are being buried in plain sight. Here’s everything you need to know about the immediate future of striped bass management…

Deep-sea mining threatens some of the East Coast’s most pristine and vital ecosystems — and it’s happening without public awareness or adequate testing. Join a long-time ocean scientist and a seasoned environmental advocate to uncover Virginia’s first offshore mineral exploration initiative, unravel a complex web of corporate interests, regulatory gaps, and ecological risks that could change the Chesapeake Bay forever.

The old stock assessment models, with fixed effects and oversimplified assumptions, have failed to capture the true biological and spatial complexity of striped bass populations. Now, a cutting-edge model called WAM (Woods Hole Assessment Model) promises to deliver a far more realistic picture — but only if we understand its potential and pitfalls.

In this episode, we dive into the heart of the debate: Can the new WAM model address longstanding flaws like fixed mortality rates and unreliable data inputs? In this episode, scientists and anglers unpack how the transition from traditional catch-at-age models to probabilistic, spatially explicit frameworks could reshape our understanding of recruitment, natural mortality, and spawning stock biomass. We explore the limitations of basic assumptions—like constant mortality across fish sizes—and reveal how outdated science has misled managers, impacting regulations and future conservation efforts.

The Guide Post is joined by a very familiar face that's been gone for a minute...

If you've been underestimating just how political and opaque LA fisheries management truly is, recent bills reveal the game of influence and power at play behind the scenes. Join two Louisiana fishing guides and a fisheries scientist as they give you a peak behind the curtain...

Most redfish populations are declining faster than we can keep up with, but the fix isn’t as simple as placing blame on one culprit, whether that’s the menhaden industry or elsewhere. When everyone agrees that overfishing, habitat loss, and changing ecosystems are key factors, why do some still aim to hijack redfish conservation conversations with contentious agendas? In this eye-opening episode, angling experts from Louisiana, South Carolina, Virginia, and Texas reveal the truth about the real causes behind redfish declines—and why pointing fingers only delays solutions.

This episode emphasizes the importance of honest conversation, responsible management, and anglers' role in fisheries management. With insight into the upcoming menhaden stock assessments and efforts to push meaningful policy changes, it's time to realign honest conversations about "bunker" and striped bass that don't cannibalize each other. Both deserve powerful advocacy and need fisheries reform. Don't be fooled by social media hype—get the facts, hear the truth, and understand what it truly takes to turn the tide. Guest experts include fly tyer Blaine Chocklett, guide Ray Jarvis, surfcaster Jake Hardy and industry professional Mike Hogan, all with decades of experience on the water chasing our beloved striped fish.

The "Roadless Rule" has safeguarded millions of acres of wild national forests for nearly two decades. Now, this safeguard is under attack. Sean Cosgrove, a seasoned conservationist with over 20 years of expertise “in the arena” joined the podcast to discuss how powerful policies are under attack again, risking the very lands that provide your outdoor experiences, habitat for wildlife, and the health of our watersheds.