The Horn

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Reuters journalist Giulia Paravicini to discuss her recent visit to Asmara, Eritrea’s capital. They talk about everyday life in one of the world’s most isolated countries, Giulia’s conversations with Eritrean officials and the future of the aging regime. They explore how Asmara views Ethiopia’s push for sea access and why Eritrean officials fear an attack on the southern port of Assab. They also discuss Eritrea’s alleged support for Ethiopian opposition groups, reports of Eritrean troops entering Tigray during the recent fighting and whether the two neighbours could still slide into outright war. Finally, they examine Eritrea’s regional relationships, particularly its growing ties with Egypt and renewed engagement with Washington, and whether the country can capitalise on the increasing strategic importance of the Red Sea.

For more, check out Giulia’s recent reporting for Reuters “Inside one of the world’s most secretive countries” and “As Iran war smolders, shunned Eritrea looks to come in from the cold”, as well as our last episode “Ethiopia and Eritrea, On the Cusp of War” and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland, to discuss the conflict in northern Ethiopia and whether it could escalate into a wider war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine the calculations behind the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s latest offensive against the federal government, its new alliance with other opposition groups, how Tigrayans view the renewed fighting and where the conflict might be headed. They also explore Eritrea’s alignment with its former rival, the TPLF, and Addis Ababa’s response to reports of Eritrean cross-border incursions. They consider how a wider war might unfold and what role Middle Eastern powers with interests in the region could play. Finally, they unpack the obstacles to diplomacy and what a path out of the conflict might look like.

For more, read our latest alert Pulling Ethiopia and Eritrea Back from War, our Hold Your Fire episode How Close Are Ethiopia and Eritrea to All-out War?, the last episode with Michael, The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff and our Horn of Africa page.

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Today on The Horn, we are bringing you a bonus episode on the rising risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and the risk of an all-out war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine federal forces’ recapture of Tigray’s capital Mekelle and what has changed since the previous war. They explore Eritrea’s calculations in backing its former enemy, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and whether Ethiopian advances toward the Eritrean border could bring the two countries into direct conflict. They also discuss Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access and how it has further fuelled tensions with Eritrea. Turning to the wider region, they assess how Middle Eastern powers’ competing interests could shape their responses to a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the risk of such a conflict becoming entangled with wars in Sudan. Finally, they consider what an urgent diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation would require.

For more, check out our last episode Back to War in Ethiopia? our statement Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Yousra Elbagir, Sky News’s Africa correspondent and winner of the RTS Network Television Journalist of the Year award 2026, to discuss her reporting from inside Sudan’s war and its various front lines. They discuss her recent reporting with the Sudanese navy patrolling the Red Sea. They then discuss the situation in El Obeid, under sustained RSF aerial assault, and how the attacks on the city differ from the RSF’s campaign of starvation and massacres in El Fasher. They talk about civilians’ daily struggle amid the war, and the insecurity and shattered services facing those returning to Khartoum. They also discuss how Yousra weaves in the personal impact of the war into her reporting. Finally, they explore possible ways out of the conflict, how Sudanese on the ground view the war, and what Sudan will need to grapple with when it ends.

For more, you can check out Yousra Elbagir’s reporting on Sky News and our Sudan page.

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Today on The Horn, we are bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga about renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. They examine why the Pretoria agreement, which ended the devastating 2020–2022 war between Tigrayan rebels and the federal government, failed to deliver lasting peace. They assess the fragile new alliance of Tigrayan, Amhara and other rebel groups, Eritrea’s alleged backing, and the threat it poses to the federal government. They also discuss how war-weary Tigrayans view the fighting and how the conflict could unfold. Finally, they explore the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, entanglement with Sudan’s conflict and wider regional rivalries, and whether diplomacy can halt the fighting and prevent a broader regional war.

For more check out our latest statement “Arresting the Dangerous Descent Back into War in Northern Ethiopia” and our Ethiopia page.

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Today we're sharing a bonus episode from the WASSAP podcast, where Alan joins hosts Désirée Custers and Hubert Kinkoh to explore the growing interconnectedness of the Horn of Africa, the Gulf, and the wider Red Sea region.

The conversation traces how Gulf engagement in the Horn has evolved over the past decade, examining the impact of Gulf rivalries, the war in Sudan, tensions in Yemen, and the fallout from the Iran crisis on regional security dynamics. Alan discusses how conflicts across the Red Sea increasingly spill over into the Horn, creating new patterns of competition, cooperation, and strategic alignment.

A central theme of the episode is the relationship between regional geopolitics and state agency. The discussion highlights how actors in the Horn of Africa navigate external rivalries and partnerships while pursuing their own interests and ambitions. Looking ahead, Alan reflects on the challenges facing regional diplomacy and why the growing integration of the Horn, the Gulf, and the wider West Asia region remains one of the most important trends shaping the region's future.

About the WASSAP podcast

The WASSAP: the Africa - West Asia Podcast translates the findings of a three-year research project on West Asian (Gulf)–Sub-Saharan African relations into an accessible, engaging audio format. It explores how economic, political, cultural, religious, and security ties between selected Gulf countries and African partners are evolving and why these shifts matter globally, particularly for Europe.

Hosts of the podcast are Desirée Custers (project manager, CARPO) & Hubert Kinkoh (Senior Researcher, CARPO)

About the WASSAP project

The project explores the multi-dimensional and complex relations between selected Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iran) and four Sub-Saharan countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia). It aims to deconstruct and analyze their economic networks, cultural and religious affiliations, and political and security cooperation. Based on empirical research, the project provides a better understanding of Gulf-African exchange, its challenges and opportunities, as well as its implications for Europe. The project is financed by the Robert Bosch Foundation and will run for three years.

Shownotes:

• The Horn podcast: https://www.crisisgroup.org/pod/africa/horn-africa/horn

More information on the host:

• Desirée Custers: https://carpo-bonn.org/en/about-us/team/team/desiree-custers
• Hubert Kinkoh: https://carpo-bonn.org/en/about-us/team/team/hubert-kinkoh

Follow the CARPO on:

• https://www.linkedin.com/company/carpo-–-center-for-applied-research-in-partnership-with-the-orient-e-v/posts/?feedView=all
• https://www.instagram.com/carpo_bonn/

Editor Marco Bussi:

• https://www.marcobussi.de/

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to explore why Yemen’s truce is unravelling and what renewed fighting means for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. They examine how stalled Saudi-Houthi negotiations and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are contributing to the latest escalation, and how Houthi attacks and threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait add to pressure on Saudi oil exports. They then discuss emerging Saudi-backed security partnerships, including the Red Sea maritime coalition and the R4 grouping of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan, exploring their implications for the Horn. Finally, they assess stalled Sudan diplomacy, the Houthis’ ties with armed groups in Africa and the risk that Yemen’s conflict could spread across the Red Sea.

For more, check out our latest statement “Closing the New War Front in Yemen” this week’s Hold Your Fire! episode “Will the Houthis Shut Down the Bab al-Mandab Strait?”, Yasmine’s commentary “Can a New Initiative Help the Gulf Region Escape the U.S.-Israel-Iran Trap?” and our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa pages.

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This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis, about the possible end of UNSOS, the UN logistics operation supporting African Union troops and Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab and what may come next.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis about the U.S. decision to oppose renewed United Nations logistical support for the 19-year-old African Union military mission in Somalia. Samira explains why UN logistical support has been critical to the AU mission as well as to Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab, and why its loss could leave some areas outside Mogadishu increasingly vulnerable. They also discuss what could happen if no solution or stopgap measure is found, and the 12,000-strong African Union mission ceases to function by the end of the year. They discuss how such a scenario could shift the balance of power on the battlefield between the federal government and Al-Shabaab. They also assess whether Mogadishu’s pursuit of bilateral security partnerships could fill the void left by a weakened or defunct AU mission.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed, former senior officials for the African Union’s mediation team, on how the split between Sudan and South Sudan fifteen years ago led to two failed states, the high-level diplomacy at the time to prevent all-out war, and whether such mediation is still possible today.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined again by Abdul Mohammed and Alex de Waal, who worked together for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan and South Sudan, to talk about the inside diplomacy surrounding the separation of Sudan and South Sudan, how those dramatic events led to the tragedies in both countries today, and the state of mediation in today’s fragmented world. De Waal is co-author of a new book The Sudans that tells the account of the African Union’s major mediation initiative under President Thabo Mbeki tasked with helping mediate Sudan’s split. Alan, Abdul and Alex discuss some of the untold history of that period, why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today’s fragmented regional geopolitics.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Payton Knopf about the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar Federico Donelli, author of the recent book Power Competition in the Red Sea, to assess the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea region. They trace the region’s long history as an arena for great-power competition before turning to the new scramble that has reshaped it since the turn of the millennium, as Gulf states, Türkiye and other middle powers compete over ports, bases, supply lines and political influence. They examine how the UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out in the region, how Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has reshuffled regional alignments, and how Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security. They also consider Europe’s weight as a strategic actor and what future stability could look like in a region shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments and non-state actors.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out Federico’s book Power Competition in the Red Sea: Testing the Post-Liberal International Order and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Babatunde Afolabi, former Africa Director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), now Director of Political Affairs at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, about mediation and conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa. They discuss HD’s discreet work facilitating dialogue between conflict parties, and why the Horn’s history, politics and geopolitics make regional cooperation such a challenge. They turn to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where the Pretoria agreement that halted two years of devastating war risks unravelling, and to Oromia, where HD- and IGAD-facilitated talks between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army came close to a deal before collapsing. They also discuss Sudan’s hard-to-resolve war, prospects for dialogue with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and why locally grounded dialogue remains essential to ending wars.

For more, check out our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar and author Samson Abebe Bezabeh, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, to discuss Djibouti’s domestic politics and shifting role in a turbulent region. They explore Djibouti’s history, its internal political dynamics and uncertainty over the succession to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled the country for nearly three decades. They discuss Djibouti’s role as a “garrison state”, how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access. They also examine Djibouti’s fallout with the UAE over a cancelled port management contract, how that pushed Djibouti closer to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and whether tensions with Somaliland could become a new flashpoint.

For more, check out Samson’s book Djibouti: A Political History and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by journalist and author Nesrine Malik. They take stock of Sudan’s war after more than three years of fighting and consider where the conflict might be headed. They discuss what the wars in Sudan and Gaza reveal about the collapse of the rules-based order, as the U.S. becomes more withdrawn and European capitals hesitate to act decisively. They assess how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting the Horn, and how fuel and fertiliser shortages could affect African economies. Finally, they talk about what might come next for the global order and human rights, the prospect of middle powers uniting in the face of global disorder and “Equator”, the new magazine Malik helped found.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

For more, check out Equator and our Horn of Africa page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, to discuss the deeper implications of Somalia’s new election crisis. They discuss the looming electoral standoff as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is set to expire on 15 May, and why this latest dispute could prove more fateful than previous election crises. They unpack tensions between Mogadishu and federal member states over constitutional changes, elections and the future of Somalia’s federal system. They look at the looming end of the African Union stabilisation mission and what that will mean for coordinating collective support for the federal government’s war with Al-Shabaab. They discuss the rivalries among external powers and how these risk exacerbating Somalia’s own internal fissures.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan.

For more, check out The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region and our Sudan page.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hafsa Halawa, an independent political analyst and mediation specialist, to discuss the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in the Horn of Africa. They examine the immediate disruptions to fuel, fertiliser and shipping, and what a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for economies across the region. They discuss how the new Middle East war will impact the intertwined geopolitics between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, including the mounting strategic importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. Finally, they discuss how the war may impact tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and how it might affect flashpoints across the Horn, including Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Moses Chrispus Okello, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Security Studies, to unpack the common forces driving instability across the Horn of Africa and where the region might be headed. They discuss how today’s crises across the Horn of Africa are rooted primarily in domestic politics, even as they are increasingly shaped and intensified by outside powers competing for influence as the region becomes more entangled in Red Sea geopolitics. They examine Ethiopia’s central place in the region, how its push for sea access is raising tensions with neighbours and the prospects for wider regional realignments. Finally, they explore what stabilisation might require, from reducing proxy competition to rebuilding regional diplomacy.

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In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by H. A. Hellyer, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, to explore what’s behind the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the competing visions of regional order driving it. They examine where tensions have emerged most sharply, including in Yemen and Sudan, and what these flashpoints reveal about each country’s red lines and regional strategy. They look at how, despite the dispute, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are coordinating their response to Iran’s attacks on Gulf states following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. They also discuss what Saudi-UAE détente might look like, whether Riyadh and Abu Dhabi can manage their disagreements, including over Sudan, if they are unable to fully resolve them and how countries in the Horn of Africa can avoid being drawn into the rivalry.

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Today we're bringing you a bonus from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively.

For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page.

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