The Hurdle Rate Podcast

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $6 billion Binance hack, Triple C spreads blowing out, and why digital credit spreads may compress against junk debt. They also discuss what Fannie Mae preferreds teach about underwriting dividends, why both the gross and claims-adjusted mNAV metrics break down, and how to value a Bitcoin balance sheet as a stream of future cash flows. The episode closes on the ATM narrative and why ASST trades like perpetual leverage on Bitcoin.

Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:52 - The Binance Hack
02:57 - Triple C Spreads Blow Out
11:02 - Bitcoin Still Seen As Risk
14:30 - Digital Credit Spreads Will Compress
18:41 - The Fannie Mae Preferred Lesson
23:22 - Rethinking mNAV
33:00 - Premium Or Discount?
35:36 - Breaking Both Valuation Models
42:17 - The ATM Narrative Is Wrong
46:39 - Perpetual Leverage On Bitcoin

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive’s largest Bitcoin purchase ever, 6,182 BTC that brings total holdings to 43,000, plus the new $1 billion SATS ATM and hitting the 61% amplification target. They also discuss SpaceX’s $40 billion off balance sheet GPU deal, why perpetual digital credit backed by Bitcoin beats time-bound chip financing, and whether capital is the last moat in an AI world. The episode closes on the future of income and why risk may be mispriced across Bitcoin balance sheets.

Here’s the latest with Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Joe Burnett, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:39 - 43,000 BTC And The SATS ATM
04:41 - Our Largest Bitcoin Buy Ever
10:35 - Engineering Amplified Bitcoin
14:25 - Is The Bear Market Over?
21:49 - Inside SpaceX’s $40B GPU Deal
26:57 - GPUs Vs. Bitcoin As Collateral
31:29 - Why Perpetual Beats Time Bound
39:08 - Is Capital The Last Moat?
51:25 - Will AI Labs Hold Bitcoin?
56:05 - The Future Of Income
01:00:27 - Risk Is Mispriced

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the $700 million SATS IPO, Strive’s first year as a public company, and growing from 5,886 to 36,818 Bitcoin through a bear market. They also discuss why SATS is a 15% fixed rate preferred junior to SATA, how the amplification engine was built, and what TradFi investors asked during a high yield selloff. The episode closes on the digital credit bubble and why Strive’s 18-month dividend reserve is stronger than it looks.

Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Joe Burnett, and Adam Livingston.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
00:54 - Strive’s First Year
06:58 - 6x the Bitcoin in a Bear Market
14:40 - The Amplification Engine
22:18 - The Dream Bear Market
25:22 - Why SATS Is 15% Fixed
34:32 - Designing SATS
42:27 - Treasury Breakeven ARR
46:40 - The Digital Credit Bubble
55:54 - Pricing Through a High Yield Selloff
01:01:13 - What’s Your LTV?
01:06:30 - The 18-Month Dividend Reserve

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive's latest 2,000 Bitcoin purchase, a Q3 that delivered a 99% total return, and the new $500 million SATA repurchase facility. They also discuss the goal of pushing amplification above 60% while Bitcoin is under $100K, why the market is too focused on the downside, and why US capital markets are the major leagues. The episode closes with a recap of the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference and why Luke Gromen's "paper gold" comparison doesn't fit digital credit.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:42 - Strive's Q3: 99% Total Return
07:56 - The $500M SATA Repurchase Facility
09:47 - Targeting 60% Amplification
11:23 - Managing Downside Risk
19:02 - Stop Fearing the Downside
25:43 - Think Bigger
32:58 - Why US Capital Markets Win
40:26 - Bitcoin Treasuries Conference Recap
47:11 - Bitcoiners vs. TradFi
53:47 - Luke Gromen's Digital Credit Confusion

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

The Hurdle Rate goes LIVE at the Bitcoin Treasuries Conference in New York, back where the Strive and Semler deal started a year ago. The panel looks back on that deal, which brought the two companies' roughly 6,000 and 5,000 Bitcoin together, and explains why getting bigger was what made SATA possible. Matt explains the game theory behind SATA's daily dividend now that Strategy is following suit, and why the two companies are playing different games. The panel also covers why Strive is aiming for total returns rather than Sharpe ratio, Matt's call for $500K Bitcoin by 2030, and what comes next for Bitcoin balance sheet companies.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Joe Burnett.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod/
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Timestamps:
00:00 - One Year Since Semler
05:25 - The Game Theory of Daily Dividends
12:18 - Strategy Follows Suit
16:28 - Why Amplification Matters
23:43 - The Future of Bitcoin Balance Sheets

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive's latest 1,355 Bitcoin purchase, Bitcoin's breakout, and why short-term traders may miss the move. They also discuss how digital credit could reshape the next bull market, why liquidity is the clearest measure of trust, and what Michael Saylor and Warren Buffett teach about building balance-sheet companies. The episode closes on the affordability crisis and why Bitcoin may be the new American dream.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:40 - Strive's Balance Sheet Growth
06:13 - Bitcoin's Breakout
08:23 - Warrants and Short-Term Trading
13:38 - Zoom Out and Stay in the Game
21:31 - Digital Credit Changes the Bull Run
23:09 - SATA Volume and 75 Dividends
26:00 - Liquidity Is Trust
32:03 - Why Digital Credit Isn't for Everyone
37:20 - Building Strategy's Liquidity Engine
41:49 - Lessons From Saylor and Buffett
50:04 - The Return of Balance Sheet Companies
51:45 - Affordability and Bitcoin

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

This week on The Hurdle Rate: Adam Livingston joins Strive as VP of Investments, Strategy buys back $139 million of STRC with stretch back near 99, and Strive adds 469 Bitcoin at an average cost of $77,954 while hitting an all-time high market cap of $2.75 billion. Jeff makes the case that trust is the real infrastructure of capital markets, and why Bitcoin makes that trust legible. We get into the Clarity Act, AI doomerism, and why the crew thinks the frontier labs are using fear to build a moat ahead of their IPOs. Matt takes macro with the 10-year touching 5%, what a short-term Bitcoin flush would actually look like, and why it would be the dream setup. We close with a capital markets recap and Strive's one-year anniversary.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman.

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:17 - Adam Livingston Joins Strive
08:52 - Trust as Capital Markets Infrastructure
19:48 - The Amplified Bitcoin Story and SATA
22:44 - Building Through the Bear Market
24:54 - An Outsider's View of Strive
28:35 - The Clarity Act and Regulatory Trust
36:23 - AI Doomerism and the Messy Middle
45:03 - Don't Let the Ladder Get Pulled Up
51:28 - Macro: The 10-Year Touches 5%
55:27 - What a Bitcoin Flush Would Look Like
1:01:46 - Capital Markets Recap

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew discusses SATA hitting $999 million outstanding, Strategy doubling its STRC repurchase facility to $2 billion, and Strive adding another 1,000+ Bitcoin. Ben breaks down the art and science of running the desk and why amplification stays on. Matt makes the case that we've never seen a bull market with a perpetual preferred model in place. We also get into executive comp and shareholder alignment, and close on macro: what happens if the 10-year breaks 7%.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:20 - SATA Nears $1 Billion
07:10 - Strive's Flywheel and Amplification
09:34 - Strategy's Push to Get STRC Back to 100
12:12 - The Art and Science of Capital Markets
15:33 - The First Bull Market With Perpetual Preferreds
17:44 - ASST Volume Up 9.7x in Three Weeks
20:00 - Competition and the Digital Gold Rush
26:55 - What Saylor Is Really Like
30:01 - Executive Comp and Shareholder Alignment
48:21 - Macro: What If the 10-Year Hits 7%?
59:22 - Private Credit Risk in Insurance

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew unpacks a market that has come roaring back to life, from Strategy returning as a Bitcoin buyer at 0% net leverage to Strive growing its stack 14.4% in two weeks to 23,156 Bitcoin. Jeff brings back lessons from Bitcoin Asia, where investors are building structured finance on top of Bitcoin and digital credit faster than the US, and we dig into why STRC hasn't snapped back to par, how amplification and liquidity have to be earned rather than dialed in, and why Strategy's balance sheet may be the most misunderstood credit story in the market. We then take on MSCI's proposed exclusion of digital asset treasury companies and why it would effectively make index providers investment advisers, before closing on macro: fiscal dominance, why long-end yields go higher whether the Fed hikes or cuts, and why this is a backdrop Bitcoin has never seen.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:29 - Lessons from Bitcoin Asia
15:37 - Strive Grows to 23,156 Bitcoin
17:44 - Strategy Returns as a Buyer
19:22 - Why STRC Hasn't Hit Par
23:28 - Strategy's Zero Net Leverage
33:41 - The MSCI Fight
47:07 - Macro: Jackson Hole and Yields
53:29 - A Backdrop Bitcoin Has Never Seen
59:44 - The Natural Rate on Long Bonds

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew reacts to Strategy’s latest investor Q&A and breaks down why the company is prioritizing STRC, building cash reserves, and treating Bitcoin as flexible capital. We dig into why Bitcoin has held firm despite Strategy selling, the Coldcard self-custody exploit, and broader market stress, and what that resilience could signal about the bear market. The conversation then turns to NVIDIA’s massive structured-finance deal, how the company is lending its balance sheet and creditworthiness to accelerate OpenAI’s infrastructure buildout, and what it reveals about the growing convergence of AI, credit, and capital markets. We close with OranjeBTC’s DIGY11 ETF and the expansion of Bitcoin-backed digital credit into Brazil.

Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Joe Burnett, and Ben Werkman.

0:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate
2:26 - Strategy Q&A: Bitcoin and Digital Credit
11:27 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face a Stress Test
13:15 - Is Michael Saylor Buying High and Selling Low?
17:00 - MSCI and Bitcoin Treasury Companies
20:08 - Understanding Amplified Bitcoin Volatility
30:45 - The Macro Backdrop and Bitcoin’s Next Move
35:44 - NVIDIA’s Massive OpenAI Financing Deal
53:11 - OranjeBTC’s DIGY11 ETF

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive’s Q2 results, including a 23.9% Bitcoin yield and how the company’s incentive structure supports its broader Bitcoin treasury strategy. We then turn to Strive’s refreshed website and redesigned Bitcoin Dashboard, exploring how the new tools improve transparency, make key treasury metrics easier to understand, and give investors a clearer view of the company’s performance.

Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Joe Burnett.

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate
00:47 Strive’s Q2 Results
05:52 The Redesigned Strive Website
10:56 Treasury Dashboard Walkthrough
50:11 Closing Thoughts

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the Coldcard self custody exploit and how the Bitcoin community responded to it, before turning to what the event revealed about how few people understood the cryptography they were relying on. We dig into the yen hitting its weakest level in forty years and what a fragile treasury market means for everyone holding dollars, Strategy's
decision to sell Bitcoin and build a cash reserve, and the game theory behind buybacks. We close with a deeper look at the traditional capital that is starting to fill gaps this market used to fill on its own.

Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

Timestamps
00:00 - Welcome To The Hurdle Rate
02:03 - The Weekend That Tested Self Custody
03:34 - Look For The Helpers
07:48 - Why A White Hat Could Not Have Saved This
13:11 - A Humbling Event For The Whole Market
17:09 - What People Did Not Understand About Cryptography
20:58 - Bitcoin Recovers From The Drop
23:24 - The Yen At Forty Year Lows
28:38 - Who Actually Buys Treasuries Now
33:48 - Fragile Markets And What Props Them Up
36:42 - Strategy Sells Bitcoin And Builds Reserves
41:33 - The Game Theory Of Buybacks
42:37 - Traditional Capital Fills The Gap
46:38 - What The Clarity Act Would Open Up

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Episode 67: We’re Playing For Trillions

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strategy’s Q2 2026 earnings call and its focus on returning STRC to par while building a trillion-dollar digital credit market. We explore why liquidity, simplicity, and preserving Bitcoin’s upside remain central to the strategy, along with the risks of borrowing against Bitcoin or using derivatives for short-term cash flow. Matt and Ben share lessons from meeting investors in Hong Kong, while Jeff explains how Strive is working to differentiate itself within the insurance industry. We close with a discussion on bringing Bitcoin to traditional institutions and the Federal Reserve’s shift away from heavy forward guidance.

Here’s the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to The Hurdle Rate
01:30 - Why Digital Credit Is a Trillion-Dollar Opportunity
03:00 - Consolidating Liquidity Around STRC
07:30 - Building an Ecosystem Around Digital Credit
10:30 - Reading the Market and Maintaining the 12% Dividend
13:30 - STRC, Short Interest, and Minimizing Volatility
16:30 - The Risks of Borrowing and Derivative Strategies
22:30 - MSTR’s Long-Term Leverage and Holding Period
24:00 - Bringing Digital Credit to Hong Kong Investors
30:00 - Why Strive Rejects the “DAT” Label
33:00 - Strive’s Balance Sheet Growth Despite Bitcoin’s Decline
34:30 - Bringing Bitcoin to Wall Street
42:00 - Fed Policy and Kevin Warsh’s Communication Strategy
45:00 - Closing Thoughts

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the slow summer market and strategy's focus on building up its balance sheet to improve credit quality. We explore how Strategy and Strive are navigating macro uncertainty, steadying operations, and executing consistent Bitcoin buys through the summer doldrums. We also dig into the derivatives market, short interest dynamics for ASST and SATA, and how lending out shares ultimately impacts corporate dividend payments and tax treatment. We close with a broader discussion on structured finance, the emergence of AI agents in retail investing, and the long-term potential of building durable digital credit structures to onboard massive institutional capital into the Bitcoin era.

Here’s the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

Timestamps:
00:00 – Welcome Back to the Hurdle Rate
11:09 – Trading Volumes: MSTR vs. IBIT
12:33 – Analysis of Short Interest & Derivatives Markets
16:04 – Tax Treatments for Lending Shares & Manufactured Dividends
20:10 – Short Squeezes & Conserved Energy in Equities
28:49 – Robinhood Retail AI Trading Agents
30:00 – Deconstructing Chamath’s Crypto Tweet
31:59 – Unlocking Institutional & Corporate Demand for Bitcoin
32:52 – Private Credit Markets, Structured Finance & Insurers
51:50 – Step Function Improvements in Leverage Solutions
56:28 – Battle Testing Management Teams & Risk-First Approaches

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod
All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions.

True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).*

Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

Shifting Institutional | The Hurdle Rate Podcast | Ep. 65

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew opens with updates from Strategy, Strive, and the digital credit market before recapping the major developments from Q2. We cover Strategy’s growing cash reserve, market feedback, and the evolution of Bitcoin-backed credit. We also explore institutional adoption, structured products, AI, intellectual property, and the limits of government intervention in the debt crisis. We close it off with thoughts on outdated financial systems and Bitcoin’s expanding role in traditional capital markets. Here’s the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

Time Stamps:
0:00 Welcome to The Hurdle Rate

5:19 Digital Credit During Quiet Markets

8:01 Strategy Rebuilds Its Cash Reserve

11:51 Market Uncertainty And Bullish Catalysts

17:21 STRC And Convertible Debt

19:37 AI, The Fed, And Protecting IP

24:14 The U.S. Debt Crisis

31:39 Bitcoin-Backed Institutional Credit

35:30 Building Structured Bitcoin Products

43:12 Growing Institutional Bitcoin Interest

48:02 Stablecoins And Outdated Settlements

53:05 Bitcoin Stewardship And Constructive Engagement

58:29 Closing Thoughts

Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod

All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/

Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. We are not financial advisors, and you should consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. All investments involve risks, and you are responsible for your own decisions. True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).* Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

Episode 64: Building The Track Record

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strategy’s sale of Bitcoin to fund dividend payments and why the market’s reaction may signal growing confidence in Bitcoin as a liquid capital asset. We explore how Strategy and Strive are using balance sheet management, digital credit, and capital markets access to keep their models moving through volatility. We also dig into SATA’s short interest, the idea of a “controlled burn,” and how Strive is thinking about protecting shareholders while allowing the market to function. We close with a broader discussion on patience, positioning, and building durable structures in the Bitcoin capital markets era.

Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

Time Stamps:
00:00 Welcome to the Hurdle Rate
03:20 Why Selling Bitcoin Helps STRC Confidence
05:37 Matt Cole on Strategy’s Long-Term Move
09:05 Bitcoin Absorbs the Sale
13:53 Bitcoin Liquidity Compared to Real Estate
17:29 Why the Model Still Works Without Capital Markets
19:03 Bitcoin CAGR + Balance Sheet Strength
23:14 Strive’s Dividend Math Compared to Strategy
27:40 SATA Short Interest + “Controlled Burn”
34:20 Jeff Explains Controlled Burns and Wildfire Incentives
41:56 Why Strive May Let SATA Trade Freely
44:05 Patience, Positioning, and Market Discipline
45:07 Closing Thoughts

Episode 63: The Digital Credit Capital Framework

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew opens with the latest on digital credit volatility and the broader market backdrop, before digging into Strategy's capital framework and how management is navigating stress in the system. The conversation turns to institutional behavior, the realities of managing a cash balance sheet, and the dynamics of leverage and short interest within digital credit. We unpack high yield investing perspectives, what resilience and company DNA actually look like in this market, and the specific investor protections built into SATA. We close with reflections on what it takes to build durable structures in the digital credit era.

Episode 62: Digital Credit Weakness

Full episodes: https://tnorth.com/hurdle-rate/

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the mechanics of volatility and liquidation events, before turning to shifting investor behavior and how markets react to sudden liquidations. We dig into how digital credit stacks up against traditional financial instruments, the innovations shaping the future of the lending landscape, and what it takes for protocols to remain resilient in brutal bear markets. We close with a deeper look at the Federal Reserve, the opinions surrounding Kevin Warsh, and why navigating economic uncertainty requires a unique strategy for the anticipated super cycle ahead.

Here’s the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman.

00:00 - Welcome To The Hurdle Rate
06:24 - Analyzing Volatility and Liquidation Events
11:28 - Understanding Market Reactions and Investor Behavior
17:23 - Comparing Digital Credit to Traditional Financial Instruments
22:11 - The Future of Digital Credit and Market Innovations
30:52 - Resilience in Bear Markets
36:07 - Opinions on Kevin Warsh and the Fed
41:48 - Navigating Economic Uncertainty
51:53 - Optimism for a Super Cycle

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the latest corporate Bitcoin market activity and Strive's growing Bitcoin holdings, before turning to Strategy's Bitcoin sale and what the balance sheet math actually reveals about risk and permanent impairment. We dig into historical bear market scenarios, how to manage amplification ratios, and the product management and demand dynamics shaping the treasury company landscape. We close with a deeper look at what digital credit actually is, and why it matters for the road ahead.

Full episodes: https://tnorth.com/hurdle-rate

Timestamps
00:00 Welcome to the Hurdle Rate Podcast
01:44 Market Acceleration and USD Reserves
06:04 Holistic Capital Structure Strategy
12:20 Designing Long-Term Capital Vehicles
17:21 Analyzing Recent Bitcoin Flows
18:11 SpaceX IPO and Major Capital Events
29:18 Bitcoin on Institutional Balance Sheets
36:51 Takeaways from Bitcoin Prague
41:20 Onboarding New Investors via Digital Credit