The Joseph Carlson Show

00:00 Introduction

02:03 Qualtrim

03:16 How I Set My Price Targets

04:23 Mastercard

07:27 Amazon

09:27 Alphabet / Google

11:49 Meta

14:18 S&P Global

15:01 Microsoft

16:15 ASML

17:55 Costco

19:17 Netflix

21:55 Texas Roadhouse

23:25 Moody’s

24:13 Duolingo

25:22 Uber

26:25 DoorDash

28:26 Amazon Earnings Breakdown

39:16 Anthropic Results & Steve Eisman

46:01 Fail of the Week: The $1 Million Kick

00:00 Google’s Selloff & My Portfolio

04:20 Google’s Revenue Growth

06:00 Understanding Google’s Earnings & Valuation

09:03 Free Cash Flow & Capital Spending

10:49 Is AI Hurting Google Search?

14:15 Management’s Explanation & AI Monetization

20:24 Google Cloud, YouTube & My Outlook

24:14 Mastercard Earnings

25:15 Microsoft Earnings

26:15 DoorDash’s Proposed Instacart Acquisition

Anthropics S1 shows the fastest growth ever.

I explain why I'm buying $5,000 of Netflix tomorrow.

00:00 Earnings Season Heats Up & AI Bubble Fears

01:26 Qualtrim Membership

02:24 SpaceX Earnings: Starlink, Space & AI

05:47 SpaceX vs. Amazon: The Valuation Problem

09:24 Netflix Earnings: A Buying Opportunity?

12:16 ASML: When Market Narratives Create Opportunity

14:33 Netflix's Engagement Concerns & Layoffs

18:17 Meta Earnings: Advertising Power & AI Spending

21:08 Tesla Earnings: Robotaxis, Competition & Valuation

24:44 Moody's Earnings: A Long-Term Compounder

25:47 Brad Gerstner: Bullish on AI but Selling Stocks?

31:40 The Size of Gerstner's Hedge Fund vs. Long-Only Fund

34:07 Fail of the Week: ESPN Embraces Sports Gambling

35:30 How Gambling Advertising Influences Journalism

The new earnings season has started where the majority of growth is coming from a few AI companies.

Michael Burry and Ray Dalio are both warning of an impending AI bubble. In this epiosde we look at their history and what actions investors should take with these type of warnings.

0:00 I Bought 3 Turnaround Stocks

1:31 Netflix — Buying More After the Selloff

6:37 Netflix’s Growth Is Being Misunderstood

10:35 The Netflix “Low-Quality Content” Criticism

17:53 Uber — Buying the 30%+ Drop

21:18 S&P Global — My Third Purchase

24:13 Nike — Why I’m Still Avoiding It

26:03 FICO — Great Business, Major Risk

27:42 Tom Lee Says Investors Are Too Pessimistic

29:12 Fail of the Week: Apple vs. AI Agents

0:00 Why Google & Meta Could Win AI

2:08 The AI Race: OpenAI vs. Anthropic

3:33 Meta Goes All-In on AI

5:08 Google's Comeback With Gemini

7:04 Gemini 4 Benchmarks

9:33 Google & Meta's Financial Advantage

12:16 Free AI, Pricing & Monetization

17:26 Trust, Distribution & OpenAI's Super-App Problem

23:05 Netflix Selloff & Ted Sarandos

25:52 FICO's Stock Collapse

I break down my $1.5 million stock portfolio, including what I’m doing with Google after it fell behind in the AI model race, Meta’s recent surge and new enterprise push, and updates on Amazon, Mastercard, ASML, S&P Global, Netflix, Uber, DoorDash, and more. I also look at the growing debate over AI and jobs, contrasting Jensen Huang’s optimistic view with Andrew Yang’s concerns about automation, before finishing with Bob Chapek’s comments about what happened behind the scenes at Disney and Bob Iger’s return.

0:00 Intro

1:31 $1.5 Million Portfolio Update

3:04 Google Falling Behind in AI

7:29 Meta’s Huge Comeback

10:35 Amazon & the Portfolio

16:29 Netflix Gets Crushed

23:08 Jensen Huang vs. Andrew Yang on AI

32:20 Bob Iger — Fail of the Week

Meta stock is surging, Muse is taking off, and now Amazon is fighting back. In this episode, I break down Meta’s massive move higher, why sentiment around the company has shifted so quickly, and why Amazon’s decision to block Muse may be less about “security and privacy” and more about protecting its advertising business and its direct relationship with customers. We’ll look at what happens if AI agents become the new way people shop online, how Meta could respond to Amazon’s blockade, and why I think this fight is only the beginning.We also have a new Fail of the Week. Andrew Yang went on CNBC with an extraordinary claim that rogue AI bots have “polluted” the internet to the point that major AI companies can no longer use it for training. I dig into what he actually said, whether there’s evidence behind it, and why the technical explanation raises some major questions. Plus, we revisit Gene Munster’s bearish Meta call after the stock’s huge rebound and take a closer look at just how quickly the AI landscape is changing.0:00 Meta, Muse & Amazon: The War Begins

2:00 Why Meta Stock Is Surging

3:39 Muse Changes the Meta Story

10:22 Amazon Blocks Muse

13:21 The Real Reason Amazon Is Worried

16:41 How Meta Can Respond

21:55 Gene Munster’s Meta Call Revisited

23:10 Andrew Yang’s “Polluted Internet” Claim

AI agents are moving from simply answering questions to actually doing things for us — shopping, booking hotels, making reservations, comparing prices, managing transactions, and eventually negotiating with other machines on our behalf.That shift could have enormous consequences for some of the world’s biggest companies.In this episode, I look at the rise of agentic commerce and a simple framework for determining which businesses are most exposed: How much of their value comes from removing friction, and how much scarce infrastructure or capability remains once that friction disappears?We break down what this could mean for Booking Holdings, DoorDash, Intuit, Google, Amazon, Uber, Duolingo, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Mastercard, ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix, Texas Roadhouse, and more.Some businesses may lose their direct relationship with the customer. Others could become even more valuable as AI agents increase transactions, computing demand, and the need for trusted infrastructure.The question may no longer be, “Can AI automate this business?”It may be: “What happens when an AI agent becomes the customer’s gatekeeper?”0:00 The Agentic Commerce Thesis

2:03 Meta Muse: The First Real Consumer Agent

5:43 How AI Agents Could Reshape Business

7:26 The Friction Framework: Who Is Most Exposed?

11:57 The Four Stages of the Agent Economy

18:28 Booking Holdings, DoorDash & Intuit

27:12 Google, Amazon, Uber & Duolingo

32:15 Microsoft, Meta, Visa & Mastercard

36:50 ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix & Texas Roadhouse

41:14 Which Companies Are Most Exposed to AI Agents?

0:00 The AI Slowdown Battle

4:05 Why Meta Benefits Most

6:49 How Meta Wins Either Way

12:41 Meta’s New AI Assistant

15:41 Zuckerberg’s Track Record

20:43 Dario’s Real Incentives

29:21 The Problem With “Coordinated Pacing”

31:46 Fail of the Week: Hunter Biden’s Meme Coin

Jacob Coxon viral X post is causing an AI hysteria. We look through the timeline in this episode.

00:00 What's Happneing In The Stock Market

17:31 Microsoft to Reveal Cloud Growth

19:45 S&P Global To Sell Capital IQ

21:52 Google Avoids Breakup

23:00 Fail Of The Week: Teleprompter Operator

Why the biggest bear, Ed Zitron, belives AI is a con.

00:00 Meta Strategic Victory In Lawsuit

18:30 Microsoft Is Hiding From Investors

21:23 Netflix May Offer Peacock Through It's Service

26:15 Win Of The Week: SharkNinja's Innovation

00:00 Buy Prices For Every Stock

26:18 Uber Hit Piece

38:50 Fail Of The Week: Gene Munster

00:00 How To Have An Edge In Investing

15:02 Sharing My Investment Journey

19:15 Top Pick 1: Meta

23:50 Top Pick 2: Uber

25:50 Top Pick 3: S&P Global

27:30 Duolingo DAU Update

29:20 Fail Of The Week: Amazon Drone Delivery

30:45 New Carlson Family Member

00:00 Super Investor Portfolio Update

23:00 Meta Lawsuit Gets Worse