The Julia La Roche Show

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year.

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

Timestamps

0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds

0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco

1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years

3:25 What would make him bullish

4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields

6:54 How high would yields have to go?

7:23 The biggest risk: inflation

11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice

12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in

14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky

15:16 Get used to 3% inflation

17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins?

21:16 What it means for markets

22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI

25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers

27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents

29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity

31:28 Is AI a bubble?

33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh

35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility?

38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine

40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year

42:33 Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome to The Wrap

1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics?

3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding?

4:38 Midterm predictions

6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed?

7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen

9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era?

12:02 What people are missing about Warsh

13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators

16:41 What it means for annuity holders

17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem

18:37 Are the banks exposed?

19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae

22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM?

25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit

27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory?

29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock

31:03 What to watch after the midterms

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent”

0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction

0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent

2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold

3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative”

5:14 An unsatisfying press conference

6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO

7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill

8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession?

8:47 What jobless claims are missing

12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot

13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip

13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut

14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed

15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick

17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI

18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI

18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit

19:55 Wrap-up

Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:
https://www.merkinvestments.com/
https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps:

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome Axel Merk
1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”
3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms
5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war
7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?
9:50 The four types of gold buyers
12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed
15:16 What Fed independence really means
17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player
20:24 What it’s like in the room
21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?
24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed
27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism
29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge
31:18 Hike or hold this week?
33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk
36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners
39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome to The Wrap

1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump”

3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder

5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud

7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25%

09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing?

10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell

13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy

14:19 Annaly back to book value

15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries

19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds

20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash

22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold?

23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high

24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials

26:43 How income investing works

28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about

32:00 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs

Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/

Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs

Timestamps:
0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce
0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser
1:15 The only macro that matters: AI
4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 2007
6:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive
10:07 How big is agentic commerce?
10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise
12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis
14:01 An agentic run on the banks
17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you
18:56 The generational divide on AI
24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman
26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions”
28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity
31:04 What he tells his kids about AI
32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade
35:43 All moats are disappearing
37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people
41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero
43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative
45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley
48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity
50:00 The bull case: agentic compute
52:30 Is the AI debt a problem?
55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback
58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto
1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now
1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects

Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/

X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Protect your capital

0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg

1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy

6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect

10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium

13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts

18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008

23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds

26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous?

31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went

36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived

37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern

41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair

42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown

45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations

50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk

53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve

54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure

1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown

1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave

1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries

1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome back

00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”

02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?

03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war

07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?

08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again

09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices

11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference

13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected

15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor

17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court

18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027

20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?

21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine

24:36 The AI reset and circular finance

26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages

29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly

31:34 What Whalen is watching next

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle

0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald

1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”

2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down

4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”

8:31 The ConvertBond.com story

9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans

11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?

11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks

15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle

16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash

21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade

23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms

24:43 The case for gold and silver

27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances

03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue

04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale

07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?

09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back

10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market

11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call

14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep

15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit

18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?

19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears

23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”

24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation

26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?

28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?

30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?

33:58 – What Chris is watching next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/

Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Website: https://www.principles.com/

X: https://x.com/RayDalio

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum
1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971
6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force
7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?
9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits
12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline
16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns
17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929
21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification
22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)
24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%
25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS
29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare
31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict
33:54 Closing

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/

X: https://x.com/NickNemo17

Timestamps:

0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War
0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets
1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system
4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar
7:00 Private credit defaults are rising
10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels
11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008
14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"?
17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks
19:33 The insurance connection
26:30 Is your annuity safe?
27:18 Are regulators asleep?
29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage
34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight
39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency
40:58 How credit contagion could spread
46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%?
50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout
53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test
55:23 Where to find Nick

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap

0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high

1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?

2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?

4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted

6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction

7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability

9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry

10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy

11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit

13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)

14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L

17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few

18:34 – Is a recession ahead?

18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period

21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?

23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?

25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money

27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal

29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings

31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary

31:58 – Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links

X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton

Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx

Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry

0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs

4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?

11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"

18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money

20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy

24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict

28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?

34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next

39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"

47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets

51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work

Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Website: https://dampedspring.com/

X: https://x.com/dampedspring

Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan
00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning
02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation
05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations
12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom
13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again?
17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks
18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta
21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds
24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again
29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo
31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession
32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed
36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation
38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation
41:37 What's mispriced right now
43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle
48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23
53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

⁠

Timestamps:

0:00 – Preview

0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap

1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%

2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal

3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry

4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end

5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk

6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system

7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals

8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis

9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world

11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis

14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock

15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"

16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut

21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy

23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?

24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security

27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries

29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?

30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies

31:25 – Wrap-up

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"

0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento

0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers

4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind

8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals

10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit

14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business

15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027

20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary

21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals

23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?

24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"

25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession

28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio

33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"

34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)

39:19 Is there hope on the other side?

42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates

43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"

46:28 How to follow Michael Pento

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5%

2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession"

5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one

8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market

11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy

12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy

13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England

16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market

20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior

21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets

22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity

23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market

28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings

30:25 The housing correction is already happening

31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos"

35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like

38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks

39:17 Closing thoughts

Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions.

Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 – Welcome back

1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant"

5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore?

5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail

6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt

6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress

9:39 – The age of uncertainty

10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year

11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028

11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb

11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast

13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling

14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works

15:28 – Energy

16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership

17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter

18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again

20:34 – The AI trade

21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative?

21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock

22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio

23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks

24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed

27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms?

28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call?

29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills

30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year

31:37 – Close

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.

Thank you to our partners

Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway

1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference

4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge

5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment

7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals

8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory

10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"

10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken

11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence

12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned

13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge

14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals

15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down

16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished

17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman

17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time

18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips

20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes

20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings

22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening

23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K

25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?

25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism

27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus

28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment

29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E

31:40 What's making her optimistic

33:25 Wrap-up