The Paul Warburg Podcast

See if a gold IRA is the right move for you - text "PAUL" to 35052 or go to https://www.paullovesgold.com to start your IRA Structural Review with Augusta Precious Metals.

Neither I nor Augusta Precious Metals is a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. If you're considering precious metals, you should speak with your own financial or tax professional. This video contains a paid promotion for Augusta Precious Metals. I may receive compensation if you choose to work with them.

Russia's economic forecast for 2026 suggests a shift in energy markets. We analyze the specific projections for crude prices.

This breakdown covers the official socioeconomic development outlook for the 2027-2029 period. By examining the conservative external assumptions provided, we can better understand how the Russian government anticipates its financial future as the war continues to influence global energy dynamics. We focus on the projected decline of Brent oil prices and what that implies for broader state revenue.

Specifically, we look at the adjusted Urals price expectations, which are set to drop significantly by 2029. This analysis is essential for anyone tracking the impact of international sanctions and refinery strikes on the global supply chain. Understanding these fiscal targets provides a clearer picture of Russia's long-term sustainability.

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Ukraine just had one of their best nights of the entire war. They had successful strikes against many targets in Russia, including refineries, Iskander ballistic missile facilities, chemical factories, SU-34 fighter-bombers, and a whole lot more. I talk about the significance of each category, and why it matters so much in light of the U.S. midterms and the recent rhetoric of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

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Ukraine has a secret advantage against Russia that is just beginning to show its full strength. It's the same underlying advantage that led the United States to win the Cold War against the Soviet Union - an advantage that is rarely recognized until events are looked back at in hindsight from a historical perspective. In this video, I walk about the war in Ukraine and why Ukraine's growing technological supremacy over Russia will allow them to win the war, as well as explaining the underlying source of this technological advantage that has led to breakthroughs in interceptor drones, AI, robotics, and more.

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Many people are wondering how much longer the war in Ukraine can go on. Donald Trump is once again stating that Ukraine cannot achieve victory, and that they must reach peace terms with Russia, or else things will only get worse. But is that really true? In this video, I compare the Ukraine War to past conflicts, including World War II and the American Revolution, to prove that the war in Ukraine may just be getting started (and why that's a good thing for Ukraine, and a bad thing for Russia and Vladimir Putin).

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China's control over rare earth metals has become legendary. But what if everything is not as it seems? It turns out, China is losing its leverage, and not just losing it, but becoming the recipient of the same use of leverage from other nations. In this video, we talk about the truth behind the rare earth metals situation, including true global reserve volumes, productions costs, strategic access, and more. I prove why rare earths aren't as big of a long-term problem as most people think, even if they pose short-term challenges.

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Russia just had its single worst day of the entire war in Ukraine. But it's not just one bad day. It's becoming a trend. Currently, Russia is taking casualties at one of their highest sustained rates ever. It all comes back to Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and the U.S. midterms. But it also has a lot to do with Ukraine's growing technology. If this continues, it's only just the beginning. We discuss Russia's coming mobilization, Ukraine's drone wall, their fortress belt, and more.

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Ukraine has been repeatedly striking Russia's data centers. In about a week, they hit 3 of Russia's 5 largest data centers owned by Yandex. Now, they've hit a data center for VK, Russia's largest social media company (equivalent to Russia's Meta). This is clearly just the beginning. I examine the growing implications of the data center strikes, and Russia's growing air defense gaps. I also connect it to data center strikes conducted during the Iran War.

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The EU just put China on notice. Germany and France just introduced an aggressive new proposal that would allow them to cut China off from the European market if China decided to start a trade war. But it's not all just about trade wars and tariffs. There's a bigger story at play. In this video, I connect the thread between China's rare earths, European weapons, trade restrictions, Germany's auto industry, Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, and more.

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There has been a lot of concern lately with the United States pressuring Ukraine as the midterm elections approach. Trump has apparently been threatening to cut off intelligence sharing, and ordering that Ukraine's Starlink access be restricted at high speeds. This has led to a lot of questions, with people wondering what's going on between Trump and Putin, and what this will mean for the war in Ukraine. I analyze it all, including the connections to U.S. politics, Elon Musk, past events, and more.

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Ukraine has been repeatedly striking Russia's data centers. In about a week, they've hit 3 of Russia's 5 largest data centers owned by Yandex, plus the largest data center for Sberbank that is currently under construction. It's part of an escalating strategy that's having a huge impact. The question on everybody's mind is, has this really disrupted Russian bot traffic? I examine it all in this video.

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This winter could be decisive in the Ukraine War. Russia's home front is currently the most vulnerable it's ever been, all while Ukraine is bringing new tech to the battlefield that could change everything. I discuss ground robotics, fuel shortages, and how Russia's winter position compares to Ukraine's. Vladimir Putin should be very nervous.

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Russia's war against Ukraine has cost the Kremlin far more than they ever expected. Now, Russia is dramatically increasing their military budget, at the same time that they have failed yet another bond auction. Russia needs cash more than ever, but has few options to get it - and there may be little that Vladimir Putin can do. In this video I talk about the economic factors of the war in Ukraine, how Russia is hiding its military spending, and why the Russian economy is buckling under the strain of the war.

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Ukraine's new FP-7 ballistic missile has finally been used in combat for the first time, and it's bad news for Vladimir Putin. As Russia continues their war against Ukraine, Ukraine's new tech continues to change the playing field. I discuss how Ukraine's new ballistic missiles, including this FP-7, and also the soon to come FP-9, will actually impact the battlefield and the long-range strikes around Moscow and Kyiv. Some of the reasons are obvious. Others...not so much.

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There are lots of stories going around about how Russia is preparing an attack on a NATO country - perhaps Finland or Estonia. We've had warnings from Danish intelligence and the CIA. Russia is even threatening to use nukes yet again, with a direct threat given to NATO leadership. The hybrid warfare campaigns are accelerating, and overall, lots of people seem to be worried. But could, and would, Russia really strike NATO while still deeply entrenched in the War in Ukraine? I discuss it all in this video, including recent events, and the surprisingly robust history that can give us a pretty clear answer.

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Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi has become a stunning performance, revealing several never-before-seen military tactics that will change the future of warfare. I take a deep dive into Ukraine's latest advancements in ground robotics, including robots dropped by aerial drones, kamikaze robots, mine-laying robots, and a whole lot more. This is one of the most exciting updates of the Ukraine War, as we now have a clear vision of how Ukraine can ultimately defeat Russia.

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Russia has threatened to use nukes over 100 times since they invaded Ukraine, with many famous "nuclear red lines." But the volume of threats has been so large, many people have begun asking the hard questions. In this video I explore the true state of the Russian nuclear arsenal, and whether or not its actually a credible threat. I bring in examples from the Cold War and nuclear doctrine, then go all the way down to the individual psychology of Vladimir Putin.

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Chapters

• 00:00:00 The Most Heavily Bombed Place on Earth
• 00:03:58 The Unfathomable Scale of the Tsar Bomba
• 00:07:16 Rhetoric vs Reality in Russia's Nukes
• 00:16:05 The Massive Gap in Nuclear Preparedness
• 00:23:35 Corruption and Russia's Nuclear Failures
• 00:32:12 Why "Some Working Nukes" Isn't Enough

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Ukraine continues its air campaign against Moscow, making more progress every single day in one of the biggest developments of the entire War in Ukraine. They've now managed to strike the Moscow refinery again, in their biggest drone wave EVER. But this is just the beginning. In this video I talk about Ukraine's long-range strike developments, including the soon to be released FP-7 ballistic missile. I discuss the massive strategic differences between what Ukraine is doing and what Russia is capable of. Though on the surface they may look the same, the truth is that they couldn't be more different.

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Chapters

• 00:00:00 The Leaked Memo
• 00:01:07 The Drones Attack
• 00:02:34 The Real Story Behind the Defenses
• 00:05:47 Why Ukraine's Strikes Are Accelerating
• 00:12:48 The Fundamental Difference Between Ukraine and Russia's Strikes

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China is facing massive demographic and population collapse. As a result of their One Child Policy, the nation is decreasing in population dramatically, falling behind India, and eventually, perhaps even the United States. I discuss why China has been unable to fix their population problem, and what that could mean for the future of our world, including Taiwan.

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Ukraine just conducted their deepest strike of the entire war, using FP-1 drones to hit Russian gas infrastructure deep within the Arctic. But this is just the beginning. Every day, more of the Arctic, Siberia, and the Russian Far East are in range of Ukrainian strikes, unlocking entire new categories of targets and ways of thinking for the Ukrainian military. And this comes after satellite imagery has already confirmed Russia is running out of air defense systems, with Russia having already rotated their defenses away from the new categories of targets that Ukraine is now hitting. This is just the beginning.

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New polling data just came out in Ukraine that defies most peoples’ expectations. Despite the war, Ukrainians are happy. But this isn’t just a mere interesting tidbit. It speaks to a core failure of Russia’s strategy for the war in Ukraine. I examine what this all means for Ukrainian society, and put it in historical context.

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