The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons

The higher-for-longer narrative is now the higher-for-longer reality, as this week's guest, Trepp's Lonnie Hendry, puts it. How will recent rate hikes impact rents and the multifamily capital markets? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons lays out the possible scenario where the high rate environment leads to higher rent inflation, thereby becoming a thorn in the side for the Fed in its quest to tame inflation. That's because rate hikes have only cooled rental housing supply, but not demand, with 2026 so far ranking among the hottest years on record for apartment absorption. Rent re-acceleration isn't a slam dunk, as Jay notes, but it's a plausible scenario as developers struggle to get equity for new development projects. Later in the program, Jay and Lonnie discuss impacts on multifamily and BTR capital markets. Will higher rates lead to a wave of defaults and foreclosures? Will cap rates rise with rates? What segments of the market are most vulnerable? Lonnie shares his take on why a worst-case scenario is unlikely, and why most distress on the equity side, not debt. Additionally, as always, Jay breaks down the latest headlines in rental housing, including the Treasury's proposed rules around SFR and BTR stemming from the ROAD legislation, UDR's partnership with Apollo, and ULI's picks for hottest markets in 2027.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the world of non-traded REITs, looking at how they compare to their better-known peers in the publicly traded market. One advantage: Non-traded REITs don't have to wrestle with the volatile swings of the public market, but at the same time, they're also not as easy to buy or sell typically. Jay welcomes in the founder of the newest private REIT, Clay Grubb of Grubb Properties and Link Apartments REIT. Clay shares what drove him toward the REIT structure, how it works, and how it compares to traditional private funds and traded REITs. Clay also shares his firm's unusual DNA — a Charlotte-based apartment operator betting heavily on the coastal cities that most Sun Belt operators love to hate. What is Grubb seeing that drives their interest in places like New York City, Berkeley and Los Angeles? Also in this episode, Jay shares his hot take on why public REITs are a poor proxy for apartment values. And in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay shares headlines on HUD expanding its financing programs to include build-to-rent single-family rental homes and on the Census' latest multifamily starts data.

Is student housing in decline due to a massive enrollment cliff? Not exactly. While demographics are changing and the college-age population declining, the impact appears to be far more nuanced than doomsdayers suggest. Some campuses are doing just fine, while others are struggling. In this episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives into the nuance of what's really happening as population trends shift, and why some universities may be better positioned than others going forward. Jay also shares his hot take on how this shift in student housing may be an early clue of what's to come in the conventional apartment market, as well. Later in the program, Jay goes in depth on the state of the student housing market with Casey Petersen, the CEO of PeakMade, one of the nation's top 10 largest student housing property managers with roughly 50,000 beds across 29 states. Also in this episode, Jay responds to a reader complaint on his observations on Austin's apartment rent and supply trends, as well as shares commentary on the latest headlines touching on rental housing — including an article about the rising political movement among renters.

Apartment demand and rent fundamentals are heating up, just as capital markets are cooling down — setting up an unusual paradox we haven't seen in recent history. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the latest apartment data and trends in this episode recapping newly released data on the U.S. multifamily market. Apartments continue to see demand outpacing supply here in 2026, allowing vacancy rates and rental rates to find momentum following 3-4 years of backtracking. Even in supply-drenched markets like Austin, where rents fell dramatically amidst the surge of apartment completions, the storyline is changing quickly as supply drops off. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in CoStar's head of multifamily research, Grant Montgomery. Grant shares his take on which markets could heat up fastest in 2027, and also explains why CoStar recently upgraded its rent outlook. Additionally, Grant unveils one market that is going against the grain with a recent jump in construction starts, even as starts remain limited in most of the country. Also in this episode, Jay shares his take on The Wall Street Journal's report about apartment buyers demand price concessions from sellers given the Fed's recent rate hike. Jay also hops across the pond (figuratively) to discuss rising rent protests in Spain, as that European nation considers rent control. Also, Jay shares his weekly hot take, this time on why rent concessions may stick even as occupancy rates improve.

The Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) is turning 40 years old this month, and despite financing 4 million units of affordable housing — creating far more low-income housing than any other program — LIHTC is taking heat from all sides these days. You've probably heard many of the criticisms: "It's a developer giveaway and a financial boondoggle! It's not truly affordable to low-income households! LIHTC rents are comparable to market-rate rents and therefore the subsidies aren't needed!" So, what's the truth? What's the data tell us? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons rolls back the tape on how and why LIHTC was created back in October 1986, explains (at a very high level) LIHTC's unique public/private partnership model, and addresses the growing chorus of criticisms. In particular, Jay makes the point that LIHTC is working as intended, primarily housing very low-income households earning at or below 30% of the area median income. Jay also discusses why it's fair to criticize and reform many of LIHTC's administrative processes (which are often anything but efficient) while still acknowledging the program's remarkable outcomes in creating affordable housing. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in the leading guru of all things LIHTC: Michael Novogradac, who has been involved with LIHTC tax policy since Day 1 back in 1986 and continues to be a guiding voice in D.C. and across the country. Mike shares his take on how LIHTC is working relative to its original goals 40 years ago, and addresses the range of criticisms targeting the program. Mike shares data and insights that can be helpful for pro-housing voices hoping to respond to LIHTC critics with thoughtful, data-backed commentary. Also in this episode: Jay breaks down the latest headlines impacting apartments and SFR, including rising multifamily delinquency rates at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And Jay also shares his hot take on why there's no such thing as "Class B/C" apartments, and why it's increasingly important to separate B's from C's.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares the data points and charts that investors should consider in evaluating the multifamily and single-family rental markets. What are the key trends in supply, demand, affordability, demographics and capital markets? And in this week's interview, BH Management CEO Joanna Zabriskie turns the tables, interviewing Jay at Pretium's investor conference, and that conversation is included in this episode of the podcast. Additionally, Jay breaks down the latest headlines, including The Wall Street Journal's article about rising distress and the looming wall of maturities facing the apartment sector. What is buzz versus reality?

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the state of the single-family rental and build-to-rent markets. Is rent growth picking up as would-be homebuyers remain jilted by high mortgage rates? Not exactly. The SFR and BTR markets remain fairly soft, primarily in higher-supplied markets, showing the relationship with for-sale housing isn't quite as advertised. On the flip side, just like with apartments, lower-supplied markets (which are largely non-institutional) are seeing solid rent growth. Also, the CEO of the nation's largest SFR owner, Dallas Tanner of Invitation Homes, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on today's SFR market — particularly now with the ROAD to Housing Act finally in the rearview mirror. How will the new law impact Invitation and other institutional owners? Could we see more consolidation? And does institutional SFR have a PR problem? Additionally, in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay addresses headlines on San Francisco declaring a "rent emergency" and on the latest apartment REIT merger (IRT and Centerspace), as well as a new study on how long it takes to build housing across different cities.

It's budget season, that dreaded time of year when owners and operators attempt to predict the future --forecasting revenue and expenses for 2027. Rental housing economist Jay Parsons and special guest Lee Everett (head of research and strategy at Cortland, a top 10 apartment owner) seek to lend a helping hand. Jay and Lee talk about how revenue and expense trends could play out in the year ahead, and how those trends may differ by market and by asset class. What supply-heavy markets might surprise on the upside? Which could be laggards? Will rising consumer inflation end up impacting operating expenses, reversing two years of steadier expense trends? Additionally, Jay shares why you might expect better performance from Class A and B+ properties than from Class C, at least in the Sun Belt and Mountain states. Also in this week's episode, Jay makes the case for why rent concessions may not just "burn off" as many operators may want to see or expect to see in 2027, even as vacancy rates improve.

It's Episode 100 of The Rent Roll, and we're bringing back one of our most popular guests — James Ray of MetLife and CRE Analyst — to take on the big questions about the cycle ahead. How does distress compare to 2008? Why will NOI matter more than appreciation in the next cycle, and how do investors plan accordingly? How does increased regulatory risk impact allocations toward multifamily, single-family rentals and build-to-rent? When will institutions rebalance toward equity strategies after several years focused on private credit? What impact is AI having? And much more. Additionally, in this week's version of "The Complaints Department" segment, Jay addresses the most common complaint he hears. Jay also brings back other recurring segments like Rental Housing Trivia, In the News, Here's a Chart and Good Question.

Rent affordability is maybe the most misunderstood topic in housing — with bad takes commonly held among investors and policymakers and other stakeholders. In this episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down fact versus fiction on the big topic of rent affordability. In particular, Jay explains why this topic is a prime example of how averages can be misleading. The data shows rent affordability is a deeply bifurcated issue where two seemingly conflicting trends can both be true: We have a severe shortage of low-income rental housing for those who need it, while at the same time we have had ample demand for higher-rent apartments and single-family rentals from renters who can easily afford it. Jay breaks down the data to show the facts, and offer up practical implications investors, developers, operators, lenders, policymakers and reporters. Additionally, for today's conversation, Jay welcomes in Witten Advisors CEO Ryan Davis, whose original research into the Census renter affordability data sheds light on how most researchers and advocates tend to oversimplify what is a very nuanced and bifurcated topic. Ryan shares why most researchers report affordability trends that don't align with private-sector data, and shows why t's important to look past headline narratives and study the Census data more deeply. Also in this episode, Jay breaks down the latest news articles touching on multifamily and SFR trends, and he also responds to a big complaint from the prior week's episode.

Description: JPMorgan just announced one of the biggest-ever bets on housing, committing $750 billion over the next decade, and rental housing plays a big role in that bet. Two top executives from JPMorganChase's commercial banking group, John Hofmann and Karen Purcell, join with rental housing economist Jay Parsons to take us inside the bank's strategy. How does the bank see market-rate apartments versus affordable housing? Preservation versus development? And much more. Additionally, amidst more headlines trumpeting distress in the multifamily sector, Jay asks John and Karen about how JPMorgan sees the health of the apartment debt market today, as well as the implications of rising competition from debt funds. Also in this week's episode, Jay shares the latest data on multifamily capital markets and loan originations, highlighting how 2026 is on track to be the second-highest year on record for multifamily debt originations. Additionally, Jay breaks down another busy week of news headlines impacting apartments and single-family rentals, including the completion of the AvalonBay/Equity Residential merger (say hello to Vivmark Residential), the surprising growth from a smaller upstart REIT and a questionable headline from CNBC's interview with Invitation Homes.

With new legislation transforming the single-family rental market into a more highly regulated industry, could institutional investors like Pretium (as well as REITs like AMH and Invitation Homes) stand to benefit? It won't be cheap or easy or painless, but larger players may have the scale and the stomach for a new, landmine-filled environment of SFR — and that could lead to acquisition opportunities with smaller companies suddenly branded as "institutional" by the new ROAD to Housing Act. Pretium, the nation's second-largest SFR owner through its Progress Residential brand, sees such opportunities, as co-president Stephen Scherr tells us on this episode of The Rent Roll. Additionally, rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares his top 5 takeaways from the SFR REITs' earnings calls that just wrapped up — touching on similar themes related to ROAD, as well as slowly improving fundamentals and improving cost pressures and stock buybacks. Additionally, in this week's In the News segment, Jay shares three recent headlines that challenge mainstream thinking on the role of large investors in pushing market rents.

It's that time of quarter: Earnings call season. Rental housing economist digs through Q2 2026 earnings call from the apartment REITs and shares his top five takeaways and what they mean for the multifamily industry. Jay shares a previously undisclosed story of how the Equity Residential and AvalonBay merger came together, which — plot twist — included a third wheel. Jay also shares color from the REITs on the Sun Belt recovery and on continued strength in the San Francisco Bay Area. Other highlights include some perhaps counterintuitive trends in operating expenses and in renter financial health, both of which are trending more favorably than narratives might suggest. Later in the program, Jay welcomes in the new CEO of Camden apartment REIT, Alex Jessett. Jay and Alex talk about Alex's 27-year career at Camden leading up to his new role as CEO, the rent recovery in the Sun Belt, Camden's exit from California, and the future of the REIT business as the number of REIT competitors continues to shrink. Additionally, Jay shares the latest headlines touching on rental housing this week, as well as another round of Rental Housing Trivia plus his favorite question asked by a REIT analyst this quarter.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons speaks with the outgoing head of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Assistant Secretary for Housing at HUD, Frank Cassidy. Jay and Frank discuss the significance (and specifics) of cutting red tape to improve supply and liquidity in the multifamily housing market, as well as the ups and downs of working as a political appointee in Washington. And what more can we expect from FHA and HUD to help streamline housing supply, particularly for affordable housing? Additionally, in this week's "Here's a Chart" segment, Jay shares the latest data on apartment lease-up volumes, and what impact they're having on the rent recovery as well as the next generation of new development. The impact is nowhere near evenly distributed across the country, and Jay highlights which markets are ahead (and behind) the pack. Jay also breaks down the latest headlines in rental housing, including a data-heavy article from The Wall Street Journal looking at the impact of high-income renters in New York City's rent stabilized apartment market.

Outside of the economy, no factor shapes rental housing demand more than demographics. What are the latest trends shaping demand for apartments and single-family rentals, and what's shifts are under way? Back by popular demand, the O.G. of housing demographics, Chris Porter of John Burns Research & Consulting, joins the podcast to talk data and trends on all the key demographic drivers. How is immigration policy impacting rental housing demand? The answer is more nuanced than most pundits will acknowledge. And what does Burns data show on rental household formation? Does it align with other industry data showing strong absorption numbers despite numerous demand-side headwinds? What about the spike in young adults living with parents? Prior to the conversation with Chris, rental housing economist Jay Parsons shares five of his favorite housing demographics charts from JBREC's latest 100+ page housing demographics report. Additionally, Jay brings back recurring segments like Rental Housing Economist, Good Question, In the News, and Good News.

When the ROAD to Housing Act became law, hundreds of single-family rental operators were instantly branded for the first time as "institutional" — despite many of them having no ties to Wall Street or any institutional capital. And while all the attention has gone toward big-name private equity groups and REITs, much less attention has gone toward the far greater number of local and regional SFR investors suddenly swept up in the legislation. What do they think of ROAD's new regulatory red tape on SFR, and how have their businesses been impacted by it. In this special episode, rental housing economist Jay Parsons speaks with seven different SFR operators who represent the bulk of the firms impacted by ROAD, but all with unique strategies, geographic footprints and perspectives. For them, the irony of ironies is that they're too small to have much voice on regulatory topics but big enough to be swept up into the legislation. In this episode, you'll hear parts of their stories — and much of their frustration around being branded as "institutional" due to the law lumping all firms with 350+ single-family houses into that desgination. Additionally in this episode, Jay shares his take on ROAD now that it's become law ... not due to the President signing the bill, but because he didn't veto it either ... allowing it to become law after a 10-day holding period. Jay also brings back recurring segments like "Good Question," "In the News" and "Rental Housing Trivia."

Midway through 2026, how is the year playing out relative to expectations for the U.S. apartment market? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons lays out the latest data and trends on supply, demand, occupancy, rents, affordability and much more. One pleasant surprise: Apartment absorption came in hotter than expected in the first half of 2026, leading to the best occupancy improvement since 2021, according to multiple datasets. What's driving those numbers, and is it sustainable? And are rents showing any signs of momentum? Later in the program, Jay brings in Quinn Eddins, the head of research and analytics for the nation's largest apartment operator, Greystar. Quinn and Jay have a friendly debate about the health and durability of apartment demand, and whether the market turned the corner in the 2nd quarter of 2026. Quinn also shares his take on which high-supplied Sun Belt markets are recovering fastest, and which are lagging behind. Also in this episode, Jay shares headlines from the week — touching on the Marriott hotel chain expanding into the apartment business and on New York's apartment construction numbers. And as always, Jay shares another edition of Rental Housing Trivia, too.

When will the apartment market rebound from the highest supply wave since the 1970s? When will rents recover and concessions burn off and occupancy rates stabilize. In search of an answer, rental housing economist Jay Parsons makes the case for the most oft-dismissed trope in economics: "It depends." In defense of "it depends," Jay shares real data highlighting the how the recovery pace varies dramatically even with the same metro area — and all the variables that can shape the pace of the rebound. In addition, in this week's "In the News" segment, Jay shares the latest intel on the ROAD to Housing Act and also talks about New York City's edict for a two-year rent freeze on rent stabilized apartments, and why the rent stabilized apartment market is becoming increasingly less liquid. As if more evidence needed, Jay discusses news of Google co-founder Sergey Brin selling his stake in a rent stabilized apartment fund for just six cents on the dollar. Furthermore, Jay shares how major new research on the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program proves LIHTC is far more affordable — and reaching far more low-income renters — than its critics want to admit. Later in the program, Jay interviews Bridge Property Management CEO Matt DeGraw. Bridge ranks among the nation's top 20 largest apartment owners. Matt and Jay talk about the apartment market's recovery, leasing trends, and differences between conventional and affordable housing.

The ROAD to Housing Act finally got through Congress this week, only to then hit an unexpected roadblock with the White House, as the President cancelled a planned bill signing ceremony — extending the cloud of uncertainty over the single-family rental and build-to-rent industries. But what's in this bill, and how would it impact rental housing, should it eventually become law? Rental housing economist Jay Parsons breaks down the details and explains why this is not the investor ban that many headlines are portraying it to be. Additionally, U.S. Congressman Josh Harder joins the podcast to take us behind the scenes on the ROAD to Housing Act and explain how the legislation came together and what impact it could have on the market. Rep. Harder was among the members of Congress who helped block Senate legislation that would have effectively nuked build-to-rent construction. Rep. Harder shares his view on how single-family rentals fit into the housing fabric of the U.S., and why conspiracy theories tend to dominate the housing narratives.

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons dives deep with UDR, America's longest-running apartment REIT, sharing the story from UDR's founding as a small Virginia operator in the 1970s to its growth into an S&P 500 company — and the many turns along the way. UDR's chief financial officer, David Bragg, joins the podcast and covers a wide range of topics from thoughts on the AvalonBay/Equity Residential merger to stock buybacks to managing apartments without leasing staff on site. Additionally, Jay gives his take on the big headline of the week: The U.S. Senate and House reached agreement on the ROAD to Housing Act, clearing its path to passage. What does that mean for single-family rentals and build-to-rent? Jay summarizes the legislation and its potential impact. Also, Jay shares the latest Census data on multifamily starts, and why you should take that data with a heavy grain of salt.