The Risk Takers Podcast

This week GP & SP talk about how they keep an eye on their automated PM trading via alerts and dashboards. Golf tournaments getting shortened is back in the news with the same spot popping up as Pebble Beach 2024. And the NBA softens on prediction markets.

0:30 — Introduction
1:44 — Monitoring prediction-market activity
6:18 — Building a trading dashboard
10:06 — Managing positions and risk
16:38 — Trade tapes, alerts, and market flow
29:15 — Prediction Markets News
55:12 — Listener Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we are joined by Liam Kane of Kane Analytics to discuss his grind from a Bet365 trader to a market maker providing liquidity on multiple exchanges.

0:00 - Introduction
1:41 - How Liam Got Started
10:33 - The Life Of A Sports Trader
31:23 - The Process of Scaling Up
39:34 - Succeeding Now And In The Future
1:09:10 Listener Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The lost tapes. A lot of people have asked for the BetBash episode as we did sell out the Sphere and only 20,000 people could see it live. This is the episode & a short intro. Interesting to see how out of date some of the takes could seem seeing as they are only two months old.

Just a note - thank you to Spanky for letting us do this live pod. It was the highlight of a great event. We would recommend Bet Bash to most of our audience and hope to see everyone there next year!

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week GP and SP get deep on questions about morality and if work life balance even is real. Then we discuss injury protection coming to PMs!

0:00 - Introduction
3:30 - Learning To Be Content With Performance
22:05 - The Morality and Ethics of Sports Betting
38:28 - This Week in Projection Market News
54:59 - Web Scraping & Terms of Service
58:04 - Explaining How Strikeout Markets Make Money
1:02:25 - Preventing Chasing Bets Into Addictions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Join the Predictions Cup: https://predictionscup.com/

Today we are joined by Ric Best, who runs one of the biggest prediction market desks in the world - Susquehanna Predictions. If you have ever wanted to get a peek behind the curtain on how the big boys operate, this is your chance. Please consider joining Susquehanna's Predictions Cup - a prediction market contest for students that carries a $30k top prize!

0:00 Ric's background
15:32 Betting on prediction markets
36:15 Building the team
53:16 How SIG trades
1:45:33 Big positions and what's next

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode - GP & SP drop some hot takes. GP thinks his are actually hot takes this time. And a big news week that includes the Kalshi wash trading allegations, Polymarket & DraftKings in the news for the wrong reasons and the bizarre ACR withdrawal terms that locked up customer funds.

0:00 Hot takes
35:30 News
1:15:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Pre-Order "Advantage Player": https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/826945/advantage-player-by-gina-fiore/

This week GP and SP sit down w/ Gina Fiore, one of the most prolific winners in the history of advantage play. Gina has won counting cards, hole carding, edge sorting, playing slots, poker, sports, casino bonus play and other moves across a successful AP career. A career so interesting that HBO is making a show out of her memoir "Advantage Player" that is being released next month. Please pre-order to help Gina out because we promise you will be reading this book - it's so good!

0:00 Intro
07:00 Card Counting
15:00 Hole Carding & Advanced AP
50:30 Edge Sorting
1:01:30 Team Play
1:14:00 Going Public & AP Life
1:39:00 Q&A

Gina's Substack: https://substack.com/@rxgamble?r=3xlh0k&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=stories&shareImageVariant=light

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

SP and GP go through all of the software they are currently using in the prediction market trading and why they think it's useful. News is spicy with the incorrect settlement of the Mich/WMU that lead to absolute chaos on Kalshi and the long downtime of Poly US on the first college football saturday.

0:00 Tech Stack
30:30 College Football PM Chaos
1:12:28 Underdog Announcement
1:23:15 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP & SP sit down with Richard Lee - a PM trader that came a different route than most of our guests. Richard built his trading firm before PMs as a market maker of meme coins back in the 2017 crypto boom. After that he tried to build his own prediction market, before deciding the better decision was to just trade on the existing ones.

0:00 Intro to Advantage Play
11:00 Crypto Market Making
33:45 Transition to Prediction Markets
1:13:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP start the episode off by listing 6 things they are focusing on for NFL this year on prediction markets. Then they get to the news - which includes Kalshi putting RFQ maker fees on and ETR & Rufus taking some public projections/ models private for use on prediction markets.

0:00 Keys to NFL on PMs
22:30 News
47:00 ETR & Rufus go Private
1:08:45

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode we are joined by high stakes cash/ tournament poker player Lewis Spencer. We talk to Lewis about his path to playing in the biggest poker games/ tournaments: what it takes to win, how the game has changed with AI, and the state of the poker economy today.

Then Lewis walks us through what skills have been transferrable to his prediction market trading - and how he is approaching finding edge using his experience beating the highest stakes poker games. Plus an epic Isildur1 story at the end that I don't think has been told yet!

0:00 Start in poker
47:30 Transferring Poker Skills to Prediction Markets and Sports Betting
1:14:40 Current PM trading
1:38:30 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

GP and SP recap their experience at BetBash including the live podcast. Then we clear a backlog of the most important news topics and make a case for recreational gambling.

0:00 BetBash Recap
40:30 News

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

On this episode we are joined by Henry Kerins - CEO of Manhattan Athletic Group and one of the earliest employees at NoVig. MAG spun off of NoVig as an internal trading team and now trades almost every sports market across multiple venues. This is a must listen for those building their own trading operations in the space!

0:00 Intro
50:15 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we have a Q&A extravaganza. 42 questions were asked on Twitter - and we get through all of them besides 2 golf questions that one of the hosts decided to cut out (not naming names). News includes someone gaming the mysterious world cup PM sponsor, ADI Predictstreet & an ice cream shop "hedging" on Kalshi.

Substack Mentioned: https://pmpulse.substack.com/

0:00 Q&A Round 1
52:15 News
1:24:30 Q&A Round 2

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we are joined by professional horse bettor Dennis Montoro (https://x.com/dennycaps1) about all things horse betting. Denny explains why getting a good fair is only one of the important modeling problems in horse racing and a lot of general advice on how to win at peer to peer games.

0:00 Intro
15:30 Pari-mutuel Betting
51:00 Rebates & CAWs
1:14:10 Modelling Horse Racing
1:37:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets.

The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors.

0:00 Traits of Top Bettors

28:30 News

1:11:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets.

Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have.

0:00 Sports Betting
30:30 Prediction Markets
1:10:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This episode SP and GP get into the first World Cup on Prediction Markets. The insanity of this world cup has surpassed our wildest expectations and we discuss what makes it unlike anything we have ever seen before. Big news and a lot of questions follow - enjoy!

0:00 First World Cup on Prediction Markets
36:00 News

1:04:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today GP and SP talk to James Gettinger, founding partner of Gutter Capital - one of the top preforming VC funds in the world.

Why is James on our podcast you might ask? Well, before venture capital, James was one of the most profitable Daily Fantasy Sports players of all time. He pioneered contest simulations and was a first mover in many strategies that now are common amongst the best players. That ability to make the plays conventional wisdom says are stupid not only made him millions in DFS - but give him a big edge in a similar game in VC.

It was great to have James on - as he proves that the people that succeed in our industry can go out and crush other industries.

0:00 Intro/ Poker
14:30 Transition to DFS
52:00 Going from DFS to VC

Apply to Elbow Grease: https://elbowgrease.cc/

Gutter Capital: https://www.gutter.cc/

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

First we welcome SP back to the podcast and he shares some exciting life news that explains his absence last week.

Then SP and GP both give an example of an originating edge that they had at some point - not shocking that the "sports" are Golf and League of Legends. Big news week and some great questions follow.

0:00 Dead Originating Edges
33:10 News
1:17:30 Questions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013