The Rush Lindell Show

On Tuesday, November 3, the hosts put their own Election Day picks on trial, and gut and math both face the same scoring rules.

Rush Lindell and Reagan sign the ledger on the record: right or wrong, winner and party, no hedging, no partial credit. They start with the ballot (435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 governor races), then work through the races that will test them.

Ohio: Ramaswamy vs. Acton gets a polling check, and Rush argues fundamentals over polls while Reagan pushes back. Texas and the Senate toss-ups bring Reagan's math against Rush's gut, with each naming what would prove them wrong. The 57 million early-vote figure gets audited, and the hosts find the tracker numbers are unofficial and turnout is not a result. Then come the pollsters they doubted, the House call, and a few jabs at election-night coverage.

The verdict: gut is faster and braver, math is easier to correct, and nothing is scored until the count.

Who wins your vote, gut or math? Cast your ballot in the listener vote and tell us why.

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On Thursday, October 29, Rush and Reagan put their midterm picks in ink, and they agree on only two Senate races.

Reagan brings the math, Rush brings the gut, and every call goes on the record before Tuesday with no edits afterward.

The baseline. Kalshi prices Democrats at about 64 percent to win Senate control. That is market pricing, not a poll or a forecast.

The Senate map. Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Alaska and Kansas each get a pick and a one-sentence reason. Rush refuses to hedge, and Reagan admits Maine is her shakiest call.

The hype. A parody Early Vote Hype Desk takes on early-ballot spin, while Reagan points out that Tuesday brings its own electorate.

Ohio governor. Ramaswamy versus Acton sets fundamentals against a polling average.

Whose map looks smarter? Listen, make your call, and cast your vote.

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Tuesday, October 27: the Fed is expected to hold rates Wednesday, but the real fight is whether Chairman Kevin Warsh hints at another hike.

Rush Lindell and Reagan run the scorecard on a decision that reaches your mortgage, your 401(k) and your gas bill, just days before the midterms.

Here is what they take on. First, the grade: does Rush deserve credit for calling the hold, or was it an easy pick? Second, the pain: September inflation hit 3.7%, and affordability is driving the vote. Third, the blame: the war, the Fed, or both. Fourth, December: is a hike prudent, or a betrayal of patience? Along the way, a clearly labeled fictional press conference where the chairman answers nothing.

Thursday's GDP and PCE data arrive after the decision, and both hosts name the numbers that would flip their argument. Who won the scorecard? Cast your vote and tell us where you land.

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Thursday, October 22: The Fed is poised to sit on its hands days before the midterms, and every economist in the Reuters poll expects a December hike anyway.

Rush and Reagan start by grading their own misses. They called a September cut, and the Fed hiked to 3.75-4%. Then they dig in.

The data. September payrolls came in at 29,000 against an 84,000 forecast. Unemployment is 4.2%, wage growth is the slowest since May 2021, and gas is back at $4. GDP and PCE land next Thursday, Oct. 29.

Warsh. Is his no-guidance style discipline or a communications problem? The hosts disagree, and CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at 72%.

The committee. Williams, Jefferson and Bowman want more data, Kashkari wants another hike, and Goldman's Hatzius expects a pause followed by a December move.

The verdict. They grade each other's December calls, and one host wins by a hair. A look at the Senate and House ratings follows.

Does a silent Fed build credibility or just confuse people? Tell us which side you're on.

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On Tuesday, October 20, the ballots are in, and Rush Lindell and Reagan fight over whether early voting is a warning for Republicans or just people voting early.

Real votes replace polls, and the hosts end by grading each other's reads. Here is what they dig into:

Iowa: Day-one numbers show Democrats ahead, but a thin first day and a 23-point headline gap leave plenty to argue about.

North Carolina and Georgia: North Carolina is well ahead of the last midterm, and Georgia passed 940,000 in-person ballots in week one. The volume is real. The party breakdown is missing.

Texas: Dallas beat its 2024 day one, but one day in three counties can't speak for a whole state.

The turn: Fewer Democratic mail requests and faster returns, per an NBC News analysis, make enthusiasm much harder to read for both sides.

Who made the better case? Listen, pick your winner, and tell us where you landed.

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Thursday, October 15: Inflation just hit 3.7 percent, and the fight is over whether to blame Trump's war or Warsh's Fed.

Rush Lindell and Reagan go through the scorecard and disagree about who owns the pain at the pump and the kitchen table.

The number. September consumer prices beat the 3.6 percent forecast, and gasoline jumped 9.1 percent on the month.

The war. The June ceasefire collapsed over Hormuz, and the hosts test the link from the strait to your gas tank.

The votes. The Senate defeated the Iran withdrawal resolution on Sept. 24 while four Republicans crossed over, just weeks before the midterms.

The Fed. The Oct. 28 meeting lands six days before Election Day, and neither a hike nor a hold comes cheap.

Both hosts hand out final grades, and they are not close. Do you agree with them? Tell us where you land.

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On Tuesday, October 13, the House map is the story: is Cook Political Report spotting a real Democratic wave, or are the pundits just stampeding together?

Rush Lindell and Reagan dig into Cook's October 9 update, which moved eighteen races and now projects a Democratic gain of nine to nineteen seats, or 224 to 234 in the chamber.

Herd or math? Rush says raters copy each other. Reagan says the numbers and voter unhappiness do the work. The districts. They walk through the Iowa rematch, Pennsylvania, Michigan-10 and Virginia. The money. Republicans lead on cash, $89 million to $76 million, and on ad spending, yet Cook says it has not moved the needle so far. Jeffries. Is his claim that Democrats are on the verge of taking back control posturing, or does the range back him up?

Then each host picks the five seats that decide the House, and both grade their lists a B-plus. You decide who wins. Tell us which five seats you would pick.

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On Thursday, October 8, Rush Lindell and Reagan tackle the question rattling Washington: do more than 700,000 early ballots across 30 states signal real trouble for Republicans, or just a skewed sample?

They open with the headline numbers and what a pile that size can and can't tell you. Then they go state by state on Democratic ballot-request shares in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maine and North Carolina, which are up from 2024. Here's the catch: in most of those states they're still below 2022, and a request is not a returned vote. Rush makes his case that early voters skew older and that Republicans often wait for Election Day. Reagan counters with months of summer polling showing a Democratic motivation edge, plus faster voting in Harris-backing areas of Virginia. Nevada and Michigan are too thin to call, since Michigan's 201,909 absentee returns come with no party breakdown.

The verdict is a soft signal, not a wave, and the real test is whether later numbers keep leaning the same way. The hosts grade each other and land on a 7-7 tie. Who do you think won? Tell us what you're seeing in your state.

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On Tuesday, October 6, Rush Lindell and Reagan take on Pete Hegseth's plan to cut one in five generals and admirals, and ask whether it is a long-overdue shake-up or a purge.

First, what Hegseth actually announced at Quantico, how the 20% breaks down, and why the Jan. 1 deadline for roughly 170 slots matters. Then, why Republican senators say they were blindsided and what they want in notice and transparency. Then, a parody, a Lear Capital sponsor read, and the competing price tags on the Iran war. Finally, why some Republicans are now campaigning against that war, what the $67B supplemental request means, and how the midterm damage scores out.

Rush says accountability beats hurt feelings. Reagan can back a smaller brass, but not one nobody has explained. Both say to watch the list: who went, why, and whether the rules were applied evenly.

Who's right? Weigh in, and tune in for the next episode.

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Thursday, October 1: Two dates three days apart, Friday's jobs report and Monday's Supreme Court opening, are fighting for control of the November conversation.

Rush Lindell and Reagan grade their own Fed calls first. Rush earns a D-plus and Reagan a B for the right call with the wrong reasoning. Then they lay out what to expect from the September payroll number, with forecasts running from about 50,000 to 90,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.1%. The Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting comes next, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike.

Reagan makes her case with a receipt: inflation at 3.4%, gasoline up more than 27% on the year, and a pump price near $4.30. Rush answers with the court docket, including climate liability, voting rules, and jury size. Then they swap sides and argue each other's case, with parody closing ads included.

The verdict: the wallet is felt first, the courts get fought over longer, and the two dates are really one story. Who do you think moves voters more, the pump or the robes? Tell us, and be ready for Friday's number.

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This beat no longer re-quotes Rush's prior 'Texas stays red' line or re-stages the Cook Political Report toss-up move as fresh news — it briefly nods to the cold open's admission and treats the toss-up rating as already-established fact before moving to the early-voting deadline (October 19) and teasing three separate polls without naming them yet. The toss-up reclassification and the GOP-favored self-quote are now fully spent; the next beat must name and detail Marist, TPOR, and Big Data Poll rather than re-establishing the toss-up premise.

In this episode, we cover Grading Ourselves: We Called This Wrong, Three Polls, One Story: Talarico Overtakes Paxton, Beyond the Toplines: Independents and the Generic Ballot, and more.

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New Hampshire just blew up the Senate map on Thursday, September 24 — Cook Political Report yanked Sununu-Pappas from Lean Democratic to Toss Up, and Rush Lindell and Reagan aren't letting that slide. This episode is the full seven-seat scorecard the show has been promising for weeks, ranking every race that decides whether Republicans keep their 53-47 majority.

Rush and Reagan grade Alaska and Iowa first, then move into Ohio and the Paxton-Cornyn mixup in Texas before landing on that New Hampshire bombshell. Michigan and Maine get graded as quieter Democratic-leaning risks, and the hosts lock a final ranked order from safest to most vulnerable. The episode closes with dueling predictions: Rush bets New Hampshire flips first, Reagan bets Michigan.

Both picks are on the record now — tune in next episode to see who's right, and let us know which seat you think flips first.

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Tuesday, September 22: Nate Silver just called the political forecasting industry asleep at the wheel — and Rush Lindell and Reagan put his brand-new FLIPR model on trial to see if he's right.

This episode breaks down whether Silver's Senate and House projections actually hold up against the old guard, or if it's just a louder spreadsheet. Topics covered include the FLIPR model's Senate numbers versus prediction markets and Cook Political Report's toss-up list; the historical midterm precedent Silver leans on to argue for a Democratic wave; a head-to-head of three competing House forecasts and why they diverge so sharply; and the pivotal Cook downgrade on New Hampshire that undercuts Silver's

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Thursday, September 17: Rush and Reagan finally admit it on air — the Fed just hiked rates instead of delivering the cut they called for months, and Trump is not happy about it. The vote landed 12-0 for a quarter-point hike to 3.75-4%, the first increase since 2023, with 16 of 18 officials signaling more hikes ahead.

This episode breaks down where the prediction went wrong, why Trump's trade-threat pressure campaign on the Fed didn't force the cave everyone expected, and what his real-time fury at Fed chair Warsh actually reveals about his leverage. Rush and Reagan also translate the decision into real numbers: mortgage rates near 7.37%, rising car prices, and what compounding credit card debt means heading into the holidays. They close by connecting the vote to the midterm mailers already hitting mailboxes, spun in opposite directions depending on who's sending them.

No hedging, no spin — just the call, the miss, and the fallout. Tell us how you think households respond, and catch tomorrow's episode for what's next.

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This beat established the binary being graded tomorrow: a hike to 3.75-4.00% or a surprise hold, with no cut option left on the table despite the show's months-long cut thesis, and closed with an added exchange affirming they won't dodge their own scoreboard. Reagan's insistence on evidence before victory-or-defeat is spent and should not be re-litigated. Next beat must explain the mechanics of the meeting itself, not restate the two outcomes.

In this episode, we cover The Thesis on Trial, The Meeting on the Calendar, Meet the Tell: Warsh at Jackson Hole, and more.

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Thursday, September 10: Trump closes his Dallas convention speech with a jaw-dropping promise — a $5,000 dividend for every American adult, contingent on Republicans sweeping the House and Senate this November. Rush and Reagan grade the bet live, and it's messier than it sounds.

This episode breaks down the actual price tag on the pledge, the trillion-dollar funding gap nobody in the campaign has explained, and whether offering cash tied to an election outcome crosses into bribery territory under federal law. The hosts also dig into Fox News' own on-air skepticism, a budget expert's blunt fact-check, and the ready-made attack ad Democrats can build from a single on-record accusation. Rush calls it a turnout masterstroke; Reagan calls it a panic move dressed up as confidence. Their final grades land on opposite ends of the scale.

Where do you land on this one — genius or desperation? Weigh in, and catch us for Thursday's convention finale coverage.

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On Tuesday, September 8, Rush and Reagan tear into the GOP's first-ever midterm convention in Dallas and ask the question nobody in the party wants answered: is a 100-plus speaker lineup a show of strength or a five-alarm panic dressed up as strategy?

From there, the show gets sharper. Trump's approval slide and the Democratic enthusiasm edge get measured against 2018's messy lessons. Reuters/Ipsos numbers showing 71% disapproval on cost of living force a hard look at whether Dallas's tax-relief pitch even matches what voters are angry about. Politico's list of no-shows and undecideds — including Thune, despite being in town — turns into a real fight over snub versus smart politics. DeSantis's warning about a one-man turnout machine gets tested against Nashville's special election numbers, and Paxton-Talarico's shift to toss-up shows cracks nobody's talking about yet.

Rush and Reagan don't agree on everything here, and they don't pretend to. Tune in tomorrow to see who's right — and tell us where you land.

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The House passed a stopgap funding bill 370-48 on Thursday, September 3, and Rush and Reagan aren't buying the victory lap Speaker Johnson is taking. That lopsided margin looks less like consensus and more like both parties dodging a fight they knew they'd lose before the midterms.

Rush and Reagan break down what's actually in the bill and what it means for the months ahead. They trace this year's two record-breaking shutdowns and call out the identical playbook both parties ran while blaming each other. They replay the near-collapse of the rule vote, where five Republican defections almost sank the bill before two Democrats bailed out the floor. And they dig into the fine print — a blocked OMB grant-review rule, a Border Patrol transfer ban, and the spending add-ons that bought enough votes to get this thing passed.

The real fight lands December 11th, in a lame-duck session with none of the incentives that produced this week's landslide. Reagan's already daring listeners to push back on her take — drop your argument and tune in to see who's right.

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On Tuesday, September 1, Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech puts Rush and Reagan's September rate-cut call in front of a firing squad. The hosts break down exactly what Warsh said, why his use of AI-driven productivity to justify staying tight flips the usual Fed playbook, and how markets reacted in real time as hike odds jumped from a coin flip to over 55% on CNBC and past 66% on CME FedWatch. They dig into the growing split at the top, with Bessent pushing back on a hike while Roger Ferguson calls for two more this year, and translate all of it into what it means for car loans, mortgages, and midterm politics.

Rush stands by his on-record call for a September 16 cut. Reagan isn't so sure. Both agree to grade the call live next episode, loser buys the coffee. Tell us who you think is right before the Fed decides for both of them.

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Thursday, August 27, the Fed might hike into an election and Rush and Reagan are here to admit their rate-cut-saves-the-midterms call may be flat-out wrong.

They walk through how July’s softer inflation data set up their original thesis, then stack that against Kevin Warsh’s bruising confirmation fight and the summer oil spike that flipped market odds toward a September hike. From there, they unpack the tug-of-war between rate-cut hopes, hike fears, and a possible hold, all while a Hormuz scare and a gold rally rattle nerves. Along the way, they bring it back to kitchen-table math: health premiums, borrowing costs, and what the September 16 Fed decision actually means for regular families.

• How their original Fed and gas-price prediction broke as oil ripped higher.
• Why Kevin Warsh’s divided confirmation still shapes today’s rate debate.
• What gold, Hormuz chatter, and debt buybacks signal about market fear.
• How looming ACA premium jumps and Fed policy collide for middle-income households.

Stick around to see how their call looks after September 16, and send in your take on whether the Fed should blink or hold the line.

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