The SAF Podcast

Why does eSAF live or die on the electricity bill? Alex Zorniger of Power to Hydrogen (P2H2) explains electrolysers in plain English, and why they matter to power-to-liquid SAF.

In this episode we cover:

• Why hydrogen makes up 50 to 60% of the cost of a gallon of eSAF, and why electricity is around 70% of that hydrogen cost
• SOEC vs PEM vs alkaline vs AEM: What do these all mean, how each electrolyser works, where each one wins, and what the market share looks like today
• Why intermittent renewables favour membrane-based electrolysers, and why SOEC suits steady sources like geothermal
• A quick calculation any developer can use to test whether a project’s hydrogen cost stacks up
• What bankability means for new electrolyser technology, and why banks want proven scale
• How to tackle the the challenge of performance guarantees.
• Why pressure and purity matter when integrating hydrogen into the SAF production process

Whether you’re a developer, investor or newcomer to eSAF, this is the essential guide to the technology at the heart of power-to-liquids.

SAF Investor London returns on 23 to 24 February 2027, bringing together the investors and stakeholders scaling sustainable aviation fuel finance. Find out more about the conference here: https://www.safinvestor.com/event/149733/london-2027/

On this week's episode of The SAF Podcast we welcome back Nova Pangaea Technologies (NPT) for the first time since 2023. 10 months into his role as CEO, Stewart Stewart, we discuss what attracted him to SAF and get some updates from NPT.

We cover a variety of topics including:

• Why energy ventures fail: it’s rarely the chemistry, it’s the handoffs between science, engineering, finance and the first commercial plant.
• A reminder of NPT's REFNOVA process which turns forestry and agricultural waste into second-generation sugars and biochar. The sugars become ethanol, which goes to SAF via alcohol-to-jet, while the biochar locks carbon into soil, making the fuel carbon negative on a lifecycle basis.
• The campaign two at the Wilton demonstration plant in Teesside delivered more than three days of stable, continuous operation, validated externally by Fichtner. His verdict: “boring is beautiful”, since every uneventful hour turns investor imagination into operating data.
• We discuss what is next up on the horizon as the NPT scale up continues.
• Project Speedbird, with IAG/British Airways and LanzaJet, gives the company a clear route to market and a single killer app. Nova Pangaea provides the ethanol, LanzaJet the alcohol-to-jet technology, and IAG the offtake.
• On LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines facility, he’s watching closely but notes Nova Pangaea has fallback options: other alcohol-to-jet plants and road fuels
• Stewart argues the industry should reward emissions reduction, not just litres produced. Under the UK SAF mandate, Nova Pangaea can monetise its biochar sequestration through additional SAF certificates, delivering two to three times the carbon impact of other fuels.
• Sceptical of shipping feedstock around the world: with around 80% of European used cooking oil and tallow imported from Southeast Asia Stewart highlights HEFA supply security and sees book-and-claim as the more honest decarbonisation route.
• Finally we touch on NPT's continual fundraising and how much time this ends up taking from Stewart's schedule.

Check out the full episode to find out all the details.

This week's episode of The SAF Podcast steps beyond SAF to ask a bigger question: what do today's energy shocks mean for investors? Jeffrey Altman, Senior Advisor, Finadvice joins Oscar and suggests the real crisis isn't the price of energy but the price of dependence.

Oscar and Jeff discuss:

• Why this energy crisis differs from past ones, and why there's no quick way to decouple our existing energy supply chain reliance.
• Hybrid war, and why investors should start pricing in downtime.
• The shift from asset-light bets to capital-intensive investment in domestic manufacturing, alternative fuels and critical infrastructure.
• Why policy certainty is the biggest lever, and which governments are sending the right signals.
• What defence buyers actually want from SAF: reliable, commercially competitive fuel, not subsidy.
• How reliance on Asian supply is pushing the case for onshore and nearshore production.
• Why family offices could be the Medicis of the next innovation wave.

Check out this episode if you want to to hear a deeper discussion around current energy constraints and how to restructure them.

Certification has a reputation for being complicated. Dario Formenti, senior systems manager - sustainable fuels, International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) thinks that's overdone, and explains why.

On this week's episode of The SAF Podcast, Oscar and Dario cover why certification is far more than a stamp on paper. It underpins market access, compliance claims and the credibility SAF needs to scale. They also discuss:

• How ISCC handles e-SAF and RFNBOs, including its pre-certification framework for early movers
• Where ISCC PLUS, the credit transfer system and combined audits fit in
• The push for EU RED and CORSIA dual conformance
• Book and claim, and how to guard against double counting
• How to prepare for an audit
• Where certification is heading over the next three to five years

Dario is a chemist who has worked in ISCC's aviation and maritime team since 2022. If you produce, trade or buy SAF, this one is for you.

Certification is the bedrock on which a trustworthy SAF industry is built. Understanding the key factors behind strong traceability is vital and check this episode out to get up to speed.

If you enjoyed this, check out our free newsletter which you can sign up receive here: https://www.safinvestor.com/newsletter/

This week Oscar is joined by Manshu Agarwal, CEO, HutanBio a UK based company aiming to commercialise the use of Algae as a feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production.

Manshu has watched the algae story play out once already. A chemical engineer by training, he cut his teeth at Sapphire Energy and then Synthetic Genomics — two ventures that between them raised hundreds of millions of dollars chasing algae biofuels, only to run into the same wall: the biology simply wasn't good enough to get costs down. Now at HutanBio, he's back for round two, armed with what he believes is the missing piece.

That piece is Spherica — an entirely new class of algae, discovered after HutanBio's founder spent a decade bioprospecting the oceans, screening a trillion organisms to find roughly 400 candidates and one genuine outlier. Spherica has a thick cell wall and packs around 300 thylakoid layers versus the 6-10 found in typical strains — translating into three times the oil productivity.

Agrawal walks through why that matters commercially: HutanBio is targeting under $1/litre at small scale and around 40 cents/litre (roughly $62/barrel) at full scale, using vertical, low-footprint photobioreactor systems developed first in Malaysia and now being scaled toward coastal deserts, starting with an MOU in Oman.

He's candid about algae's credibility problem after two decades of hype and underdelivery — but argues the underlying case, heavy transport still has no cost-competitive liquid fuel alternative, hasn't gone away, and that Spherica is the platform that finally gives algae a real shot at cost parity.

Check out the full discussion on your usual podcasting platforms.

On this week's episode of The SAF Podcast, Ryan Jackson, CEO, Cielo Waste Solutions joins Oscar to discuss the company's project platform to constructing SAF projects.

Jackson unpacks Cielo's flagship Nahoonai project, developed in partnership with the Lheidi T’enneh First Nation through Tano T’enneh Enterprises — a co-ownership structure he argues de-risks permitting and helps unlock financing through Crown corporations like the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

Alongside the favorable terms this partnership opens up Jackson discusses the project's revenue model and why Canada is in his mind the best place to develop a project, thanks to the stackable federal and state level credits available. This means Cielo can plan to sell their SAF at parity with Jet A1 and then generate the majority of its revenue through these credits.

We finish the episode by evaluating the realistic decarbonisation targets for aviation to achieve as well as the big challenges that the SAF industry is trying to solve.

This week Khaled, Ramon and Miguel of Hydrocarbon Engineering join Oscar on The SAF Podcast to tell the story behind their accidental discovery: a reactor built to produce bio-oil that, instead, yielded a diesel-like hydrocarbon in a single step.

Years of reverse engineering later, the Valencia-based team has turned that anomaly into a feedstock-agnostic, single-stage hydrothermal process for producing SAF, renewable diesel and other hydrocarbons — one that removes the need for a separate hydrogen source entirely.

They discuss the ambiguity of self-assessed TRLs, early interest from British Airways/Iberia, a build-and-license commercialisation strategy, and their target of bringing SAF production costs down to around $1,500 per tonne, against today's $6,000–$9,000 range, as they push from TRL 6 towards a first commercial plant at a biomethane site.

For the third year running, Oscar sits down to unpack the 2026 SAF Market Outlook report once again with Mark Kelly (ICF) and this year with Iris Warnaar (SkyNRG).

The headline numbers: SAF demand is forecast to reach 12.8 million tonnes by 2030 (3.6% of jet fuel) and climb past 190 million tonnes by 2050, though US policy headwinds have pulled the near-term forecast down from last year's projections. On supply, 2030 capacity now stands at 18.5 million tonnes, creating a brief surplus before the market tightens again — and Asia has overtaken every other region to lead the global pipeline, largely to feed European demand.

The conversation digs into the HEFA feedstock constraint that still hasn't gone away, genuine, if modest, progress on eSAF and alcohol-to-jet and China's evolving role as both supplier and its own energy security case study.

The episode closes with the third section of the report, a proper stress-test of the energy security argument that's dominated SAF conversations all year: real driver of investment, or narrative running ahead of the economics? Iris brings the optimism, Mark brings the risk register, and between them the picture that emerges is "positive but uneven" — with plenty left to sort out before the 2027 report rolls around.

If you have not already read the full report you can find it here: https://skynrg.com/2026-saf-market-outlook/

James Hygate, CEO and founder of Firefly, returns to The SAF Podcast for the first time since December 2023 — and a lot has happened. James brings his characteristic blend of technical depth, founder candour, and big-picture ambition to a brilliant wide ranging discussion.

James opens with a comprehensive update on Firefly's progress: the selection of Turkish engineering firm Altaca as their HTL technology partner, the securing of a site at an existing refinery in Harwich for the downstream hydrotreating facility, and supply agreements with water companies including Severn Trent and Anglian Water that already cover more feedstock than the first facility needs. He also touches on the significance of the Boeing investment, the Builders Vision backing, and the ongoing Series B round that Firefly hopes to close shortly.

James also shares his observations from a recent visit to Shanghai on the pace of Chinese SAF and renewables infrastructure development, the implications of used cooking oil supply being internalised within China, and what lessons — if any — Western developers can draw from "China speed." We also explore the trajectory of the wider SAF industry, James's concerns about policy wobble and its chilling effect on infrastructure capital, and a frank view on whether some SAF projects are gaming mandates rather than genuinely pursuing decarbonisation.

Throughout, James returns to the thread that has defined his 20-year career in low carbon fuels: the only thing worth doing is something that can move the needle on climate change. For Firefly, that means wet-waste-to-jet at gigaton scale — and James believes the technology stack to do it is now in place.

In this episode, Oscar is joined by two guests at the heart of Europe's eSAF scale-up effort: Amy Herbert, Arcadia eFuels, and Thomas Engelmann, KGAL— both key figures within Project SkyPower, the industry coalition to the European Commission to put in place the conditions needed to bring eSAF projects to final investment decision.

Amy opens with an overview of Arcadia eFuels and its flagship Project Endor in Denmark — one of the most advanced eSAF projects in Europe, with FEED complete, permits secured, and an offtake agreement on the verge of being signed. Thomas explains KGAL's role as an infrastructure equity investor — with a stake in Project Endor — giving him a view of the eSAF financing challenge.

The conversation digs into Project SkyPower's ten-point recommendation letter to the European Commission, with a particular focus on the proposed double-sided auction mechanism and the role of H2 Global as a market-making intermediary. We explore why this instrument is seen as critical to breaking the chicken-and-egg deadlock between offtakers and producers — and why the timeline for getting it in place is a source of real concern, given that the 2030 eSAF mandates are fast approaching and greenfield refineries take years to build.

We also have a frank debate on airline competitiveness and the level playing field argument, whether eSAF is being treated fairly given that new fossil refineries would face comparable economics, why renewable electricity cost — not policy complexity — is a fundamental driver of eSAF pricing, and why the question isn't really whether to be optimistic about 2030, but what Plan B looks like if Europe fails to act.

Getting fully behind World Cup fever, SAF Investor is running The SAF World Cup.

Gathering experts from different countries, we will be running a knock out style bracket to find the most promising SAF country in the world. Decided by popular vote!

Whether it is policies, access to capital, offtakers, feedstock access, infrastructure expertise all these will be key discussion points.

Join for a bit of World Cup fun alongside some serious discussion!

Speakers include:

Trevor Best, Syzygy Plasmonics - Brazil

Philippe Haffner, Haffner Energy - France

Jim Stonecipher, EdyMac - United States of America

Andrew Symes, OXCCU - England

Izabela Santos, StratX Group - Sweden

Listen to the full webinar on our podcast for some light but informative SAF competition.

In this episode, we sit down with Dan Sutton, CEO and co-founder of Syntholene, to explore their geothermally integrated synthetic fuel production technology currently being developed in Iceland.

Dan explains why geothermal energy is such a compelling foundation for eSAF production, how Syntholene's solid oxide electrolyzer cell (SOEC) technology — integrated with Iceland's abundant heat and electricity — creates a step-change in hydrogen cost reduction, and why the company believes it can achieve unit economics competitive with fossil fuels without relying on perpetual subsidies.

We also explore the independent feasibility study conducted by notable alternative fuels sceptic Robert Rapier, whose findings validated Syntholene's scientific fundamentals while identifying the integration and construction risks that Dan openly acknowledges — and explains how his team is managing them.

The conversation broadens into project development philosophy, the replicability of the Iceland model in geothermally active regions globally and how you manage earthquake and volcano risk, Iceland's strikingly low-bureaucracy environment for infrastructure permitting, and a frank debate on whether European eSAF policy is addressing the real problem — or papering over a fundamental unit economics challenge.

We close with Syntholene's unconventional but deliberate choice to go public on the TSX Venture Exchange — and why Dan believes building in public, with a diversified investor base, gives the company more control over its destiny than the traditional venture capital route.

For the 100th episode of The SAF Podcast, we're joined by Mikala Grubb, Senior Vice President of Technologies, Topsoe — one of the world's leading catalysis and technology companies, whose technology produces an estimated third of all the SAF available globally today.

We start with feedstocks — why the constraints on used cooking oil and animal fats are tightening, what a post-2030 feedstock crunch could look like, and which next-generation feedstock options (from intermediate crops and municipal solid waste to tire-derived feedstocks) are genuinely gaining traction versus those still some way from commercial reality.

We then turn to technology: how Topsoe's HydroFlex HEFA technology became the commercial backbone of today's SAF industry, the role co-processing can play as a pragmatic stepping stone, and why Mikala's advice to developers facing ASTM certification delays is simple — start with renewable diesel and switch when certified. We also explore the ESAF pathway, the importance of the Topsoe-DLR-Sasol demonstration plant currently under construction, and why Topsoe is ready to sign full commercial-scale ESAF contracts today.

Throughout, a clear theme emerges: successful SAF projects are built on feedstock security, offtake certainty, the right partner ecosystem, and a willingness to be pragmatic.

Happy 100th, The SAF Podcast. Thank you to all the guests we have had over the last 100 episodes and to everyone that has listened!

Adam Forsyth, founder of Longspur Capital joins for the latest episode of The SAF Podcast. A leading voice in clean energy investment, we explore how sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) fits into the broader energy transition — and what it will take to unlock the capital needed to scale it.

Adam draws on decades of experience across equity research, corporate finance, and clean energy advisory to unpack the structural financing challenges unique to SAF: the offtake mismatch, the difficulty of securing long-term airline contracts, and why the "alignment problem" is one of the biggest barriers to reaching final investment decision on advanced fuel projects.

We explore how geopolitical shifts — particularly the fracturing of the post-WWII trade consensus — are reshaping energy investment, introducing a "security premium" that may, in some ways, work in SAF's favour. We also discuss the evolving role of carbon dioxide removal credits, the lessons SAF developers can draw from analogous sectors like grid-scale batteries and green hydrogen, and why the UK's Contract for Difference model offers a potentially powerful template for SAF policy support.

From the prospects of HEFA feedstock constraints and eSAF economics, this is a wide-ranging conversation for anyone working at the intersection of clean energy finance and aviation decarbonisation.

In this episode, we sit down with Alasdair Lumsden, co-founder of Carbon Neutral Fuels, to explore how taking a screwdriver to a VCR led to his time in tech entrepreneurship, which eventually ended up in the world of sustainable aviation fuel.

Alasdair walks us through the company's Power-to-Liquid e-SAF project, Project Starling — a commercial-scale facility planned for Workington, Cumbria, targeting 25,000 tonnes per year of SAF by 2031.

We dig into the nuts and bolts of CNF's technology stack — solid oxide electrolysis (with Topsoe), Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (Johnson Matthey's FT CANS process), and upgrading technology (Honeywell UOP) — and how CNF is integrating waste heat recovery to improve efficiency and unit economics.

Alasdair also explains the decision to skip the demo phase and go straight to commercial scale, why their CO2 sourcing strategy shifted from 100% direct air capture to a mix of biogenic sources, and how they secured a 2031 grid connection date by choosing Cumbria over more traditional industrial sites.

On the commercial side, Alasdair discusses how CNF has raised over £11 million to date — including £7.4 million from the UK Advanced Fuels Fund across two rounds — and is now mid-way through a £24 million Series A, targeting patient capital and strategic investors.

We also cover offtake strategy, the Revenue Certainty Mechanism, the hydrogen policy disconnect, and why Alasdair sees the UK's DFT as a genuine competitive advantage for SAF developers looking to de-risk before expanding internationally.

This week's episode sees Vinesh Sinha, CEO, FatHopes Energy, joins Oscar Henderson for a conversation on the SAF Podcast.

Vinesh Sinha dropped out of university in 2007, inspired by a Top Gear episode, and built FatHopes Energy into one of Southeast Asia's most sophisticated sustainable fuel feedstock operations — with a digital traceability platform years ahead of the competition.

In this episode, Vinesh talks feedstock aggregation, the realities of scaling a waste-oil supply chain across Southeast Asia, and why FatHopes Energy is now moving into SAF refining with a 300,000-tonne greenfield plant targeting operations by 2030.

Plus: the truth about POME and palm oil, why AI is the only way to solve traceability at scale, and why Vinesh thinks the SAF industry is dangerously underestimating three things — feedstock, infrastructure, and integrity.

This is a wide ranging conversation and one that digs into the critical components that is helping build Malaysia as a SAF global hub.

Check out the full episode on your favourite platforms or use the link in the comments.

In this episode of The SAF Podcast, Oscar is joined by Shubhda Kaushik, managing director & chief executive officer, Alternative Energy Company, to explore what it really takes to move sustainable aviation fuel projects from ambition to final investment decision. Drawing on experience at Standard Chartered, Bain and McKinsey and Maersk, giving her a rounded perspective across finance, strategy and commercial practicality. Shubhda explains why capital for energy transition projects is not scarce, but selective — and why bankability must be built in from day zero.

The conversation also dives into Shubhda’s new book, The Decisive Decade - 2026 Volume I: A Practitioner's Manual - What will it take to win on bankability in the next phase of energy transition.

We explore the core bankability framework behind it: revenue certainty, infrastructure access, execution capability and risk allocation.

This is just volume I, so if you enjoyed this stay tuned for volume II for a check in on the energy transition's progress.

This is a practical discussion for SAF producers, airlines, investors, lenders and anyone trying to understand why so many projects look promising on paper but struggle to reach financial close.

This episode gives you a great introduction to what is explain at length in the book, which you can find here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Decisive-Decade-Practitioners-bankability-transition/dp/B0GZHQR25T/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3MEKZBXCEA3ZB&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.ikEBk10suF88vWdw1KH_CcBNnz9j6PniHNHHDWsie_fENicXTm3b2WClyMPMQ4pLvgKL6EJah0NMTppyB8GMRvqW_nJ3SG99vgYueNEUz1I.rZjcjiPvwirmc57l23MD1XG5HYaUI2osS2EXQErFT6I&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+decisive+decade&qid=1778142508&sprefix=the+decisive+decad%2Caps%2C293&sr=8-1

Noaman Al Adhami, UK Country Head at Alfanar Projects, is this week's guest on The SAF Podcast.

He joins Oscar for a discussion into Lighthouse Green Fuels — one of the UK’s most closely watched sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects. We begin by looking at why Alfanar chose to initially focus SAF production in the UK and the decisions around site selection.

We then explore what it takes to develop a second-generation SAF project at scale, including the gasification and FT-SPK pathway, feedstock selection, carbon capture, project financing, and the role of the UK SAF mandate in creating the right conditions for investment.

Noaman also explains why Alfanar is starting with biomass and agricultural residues, how the project could evolve towards more challenging waste feedstocks, the ongoing Carbon Capture application they have recently submitted and how the project has been financed to this point and future plans for financing project construction.

If you want to understand the real-world challenges of scaling advanced SAF production in the UK, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.

There is still time to submit your applications for the SAF Investor Deal of the Year Awards, we would love to hear from you about any financing deals that have taken place over the past year, your application can be submitted here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScwrzV8VN8oqA6c-e0GMlgZmttTQ-U-1D9XxnOgeeQV-ITeiQ/viewform?usp=header

In this episode of The SAF Podcast, Oscar is joined by Patrick Sieb, Managing Partner at Climate Tech Partners, for a conversation on what it really takes to finance and scale sustainable aviation fuel. From Series A climate tech investing to corporate-startup partnerships and the infrastructure challenges behind SAF production, Patrick shares a practical investor’s view on how promising technologies can move from early traction to commercial deployment.

Climate Tech Partners investment model is based on deep due diligence, originating from his time a Macquarie, with focus in Transport, Energy and Mining sectors.

We dive into a variety of topics including:

• How Climate Tech Partners approaches Series A climate tech investing and why that stage can be critical for SAF and other capital-intensive technologies
• Why bridging the “valley of death” remains one of the biggest challenges for deep tech and aviation decarbonisation startups
• How corporate relationships can help de-risk investments, including Climate Tech Partners’ work with Qantas and Airbus
• The practicalities of running a VC fund, raising capital from LPs and portfolio diversification
• What the dedicated sidecar investment vehicle means for aviation-focused climate technologies and SAF-related opportunities
• Why SAF scale-up depends on much more than strong technology, including the role of feedstock, infrastructure, energy and financing
• What investors are really looking for when assessing techno-economics, commercial traction and science risk
• Why climate tech is shifting from “moonshot” narratives to more pragmatic pathways focused on cost parity and bankability
• How Australia and the wider APAC region could fit into the future of sustainable aviation fuel production and aviation decarbonisation

Also another reminder that we are still accepting applications for the SAF Investor Deal of the Year awards. If you worked on a deal we would love for you to submit it via the following link: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScwrzV8VN8oqA6c-e0GMlgZmttTQ-U-1D9XxnOgeeQV-ITeiQ/viewform?usp=header

In this episode of The SAF Podcast, Oscar is joined by Nico Nicholas, Co-Founder and CEO of Zeero Group, for a discussion on the commercial and strategic realities of scaling the Hydrothermal Liquefaction SAF pathway. The conversation goes beyond the technical basics to look at how waste-to-fuel projects are financed, how they can be tailored to local infrastructure needs, and why collaboration across sectors may be essential if SAF is to scale at pace.

We dive into a variety of topics including:

• How ZEERO Group is approaching project development, with each facility structured around local waste streams, local infrastructure and location-specific business models
• Why combining waste management and fuel production could create a stronger commercial case for SAF-linked projects
• The financing logic behind these developments, including co-investment models, strategic partners and government-backed support mechanisms
• Why investor confidence and proof of delivery remain critical for emerging pathways looking to move from concept to commercial scale
• The role of certification timelines and regulatory processes in shaping how quickly new SAF pathways can enter the market
• Why scaling SAF may require much deeper collaboration between aviation, municipalities, tourism, shipping and energy stakeholders

This discussion picks up on some key themes from across the SAF industry so is well worth a listen if you are part of the growing ecosystem that is going o make commercial SAF production a global success. We also almost manage to go the whole episode without a crude joke/pun...almost!

We are also currently accepting applications for the SAF Investor Deal of the Year awards. If you have been involved in a financing deal in the last year, we would love to hear about it. You can find the application form here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScwrzV8VN8oqA6c-e0GMlgZmttTQ-U-1D9XxnOgeeQV-ITeiQ/viewform