UBS On-Air: Market Moves

In part two of a two part mini-podcast series, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an assessment of AI’s effects on US economic activity and productivity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Friday's market moves are attention grabbing, but economically more muted. The crypto gyrations are speculation, with little real world relevance (beyond the alleged boost to North Korea's GDP). The technology moves reflected concerns in one sector rather than signaling a general economic crisis. US consumer behavior has followed a broadly similar pattern to that of other consumers less obviously exposed to technology equities.

AI disruption is leading investors to look beyond the technology leaders themselves and rethink quality in an AI-driven market. This episode explores why businesses built around essential human needs, physical infrastructure, and durable barriers to entry may offer a resilient complement to AI exposure.

Shane drops by to outline the closing messages of Congressional and Gubernatorial candidates with just days to go before Election Day, along with an assessment of current polling. Plus, a look at the Pentagon’s plans to update the continuity and operational resilience strategy of military bases across the US. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

European Central Bank President Lagarde's decision to resign early (perhaps to spend more time doing book tours) was not unexpected, even if the timing was uncertain. The succession process is driven by political horse trading, not tests of competence.

Following this week’s FOMC policy meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share timely reflections and CIO’s outlook for monetary policy. We also touch on the Q3 US GDP print, and take a health-check on the overall US economy ahead of Election Day. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard shares takeaways from a recent visit to the Gulf States and highlights how governance continues to attract investments, technology, connectivity, and more (despite recent geopolitical disruptions). Burkhard then takes us to Europe to outline why a structural investment case exists (though not where you might expect). Plus, a review of factors that support continued strong performance across European markets.

There were no surprises from the US monetary policy decision. At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh signaled a desire to reduce the number of policy meetings in 2027—less policy flexibility at a time of economic and political turmoil is an interesting choice. The way is still open for further rate increases.

A look at what has been driving markets, how the outlook is evolving, and the key opportunities and risks investors should be thinking about looking ahead. Featured are Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist at UBS Asset Management.

With global data center power demand expected to rise considerably over the next few decades, we explore the scale of anticipated global demand and the scope of energy resources that will contribute to demand fulfillment. We also touch on investment considerations around this theme, along with the risks to be mindful of. Tyler Rosenlicht is a Portfolio Manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and serves as Head of Natural Resource Equities at Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are expecting no change in US monetary policy today. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s communication style does not lend itself to offering clarity as to the policy outlook, either.

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts on widening credit spreads, implications of US corporate debt maturity, volume of AI bond supply, and other risk considerations. Lotfi Karoui, Managing Director, Multi-Asset Strategist, and Head of Client Solutions and Analytics at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In part one of a two part mini-podcast series, Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an overview of the most pertinent questions heard from clients and investors as it relates to the impacts of AI to the US economy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets may be becalmed in anticipation of tomorrow’s US monetary policy decision. However, the meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and investors are skeptical that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will offer any useful insights at the press conference. Insight may come with subsequent remarks by those markets regard as the Fed’s intellectual leaders.

Markets continue to weigh the cost of and potential returns of AI-buildout, the path forward for interest rates, Q3 corporate earnings, and the quickly approaching US midterm elections. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess this range of factors, along with shares the latest positioning recommendations and messaging per the latest UBS House View update. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ optimism bias has been given some life by news that Iran and Saudi Arabia are to hold talks, with Pakistan and Turkey mediating. Oil prices have dropped a little on the news. US President Trump also made comments on Iran but investors give less weight to these. US retail diesel prices keep rising and gasoline prices have stopped falling, which is assumed to constrain Trump’s ability to act.

The AI boom is being financed very differently on each side of the market. This episode examines the contrasting funding models behind AI supply and demand, the role of private capital in sustaining compute consumption, and the implications for investors as spending continues to expand.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the factors that are driving equity markets, including oil prices, AI, Fed monetary policy, Q3 corporate earnings, and the upcoming US midterm election. Plus, an outlook for equities into year-end, and the latest positioning views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Shane drops by to share an assessment of how key Congressional races across the country are shaping up (and where donors are applying resources). We also cover recent reports of renewed trilateral talks amongst the US, Ukraine, Russia to end the conflict. Plus, a look at a new program initiative by the White House to identify and combat fraud. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy