Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Hyperscaler CDS. What’s behind the widening.
• Growth scare. Are we in the middle of one?
• Financial conditions. We’re tightening, but by how much?

This week, our 3 Things are:

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WSJ Economic Survey. It’s all good.

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AI returns. Be skeptical of forecasts four to six years out.

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“Bank-Fund” takeaways. IMF and World Bank meetings produce headlines.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• AI funding. The breadth and depth of capital sources is too often misunderstood.
• Big bank credit color. Freshly updated data and color gets past the headlines.
• Fannie Mae’s forecast. It’s not good news.

This week, our 3 Things are:

1. Economy strong, spreads wider? That needs an explanation.

2. Pre-conflict oil. If you follow the headlines, this is a surprise.

3. Real, real rates. Bonds are back.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Tightening uncertainty. What does history tell us about hiking cycles?
• Rates and growth. Just how influential is the rate environment?
• Q3 earnings. Will the extraordinary streak continue?

This week, our 3 Things are:

1. J.B. Hunt’s warning. On-the-ground color on the cost of inflation.

2. Commodities rising. And it’s not just oil.

3. Good hike/Bad hike. How do we think about this week’s hike?

This week, our 3 Things are:

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Stock market correction. Stocks are at all-time highs, you say? We observe a correction.

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Rates and oil. That correlation is hard to ignore—or discount.

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Consumer concern. New reports out of the Fed show some worrying signs.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Uncertainty returns. That improved visibility we enjoyed in 2H 2025 has diminished.
• The Forward Look. Our latest quarterly publication dimensions key issues shaping credit.
• Leveraged finance trends. Several market markers have turned positive.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• The long end. What’s known, what’s changing.
• Easy financial conditions. What’s all this concern about rates???
• Retailer week. Housing in focus.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Caterpillar earnings. A blowout, but what does it say about the AI story?
• Data center dimensions. Driver of the broadening out.
• Bonds as a hedge. Checking in on correlation.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Q2 GDP. It’s better than the headline, but… .
• Consumer resilience. Visa and Capital One provide views across the consumer landscape.
• Recalculating inflation. Improvements are on the way.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Oil vs. distillates. Time to focus on what actually drives the economy.
• Rising uncertainty. After a welcome reprieve, it’s back.
• U.S. exceptionalism. An update from McKinsey makes the case.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• AI debt issuance. Just how big is it?
• Updating the Fed. Challenging conventional thinking is a good thing.
• Big bank credit color. The latest look from the largest lenders.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Jobs’ weakness. The June report confirms all is not well.
• Q2 earnings. We’re set up for a strong quarter.
• Robust consumer spend. So says one well-informed observer.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Rates vs. oil. There’s been a breakdown in the relationship.
• Critical thresholds. We’re highlighting three worth watching.
• REITs vs. BDCs. Two peas in a pod, right?

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk.
• Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us?
• CCC signal. What the weakest credits are suggesting.

This week, our 3 Things are:

• Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global.
• Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces will help.
• Industrial Renaissance. How real is it?

This week, our 3 Things are:

1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing.

2. Income slowdown. The raw material that drives the economy is running into headwinds.

3. 2026 default forecasts. We’ll get the latest update from KBRA Analytics’ Eric Rosenthal.

This week, our 3 Things are:

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Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit?

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Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give.

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Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transcripts for an up-to-date view.

This week, our 3 Things are:

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Jobs rebound. Have we reached an inflection point?

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Shock watch. Inflation, energy, and food are all set to move the wrong way. Is this priced into risk?

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Historic uncertainty. Three experienced voices weigh in on what’s in front of us.