World Review with Ivo Daalder

This week on World Review, guest host Bobby Ghosh sits in for Ivo Daalder for a look at elections and selections.

Israel's election (2:00): Neither Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's reaches the 61 seats needed to govern, and Arab parties win a record 19. The panel discusses the stalemate, fraud claims, fears of renewed war with Iran, and how the global south sees the result.

Serbia's election (18:30): A student-led movement wins a majority, ending Aleksandar Vučić's 14-year rule. The guests weigh how protesters become governors, what Brussels can offer, and lessons from Hungary.

UN Secretary-General race (38:16): Richard Gowan explains straw polls and vetoes, the sidelining of frontrunner Rebecca Grynspan, and the controversial late bid of the UAE's Lana Nusseibeh. They cover concerns over Sudan and China's hesitation.

Guests: Catherine Philp (The Times of London), Yannis Palaiologos (Kathimerini), Richard Gowan (International Crisis Group).
World Review is a Belfast Center for Science and International Affairs podcast from Harvard Kennedy School.

Key Topics

• Protests over the cost of living and failing public services escalated into major riots in France.
• France’s political deadlock and rising debt have intensified debate over pensions and the country’s future.
• Young people feel squeezed by housing costs and a system that protects older generations.
• Declining trust in democracy is fueling support for more radical political movements.
• The panel questions whether U.S. deals with Russia could weaken pressure on Moscow.
• A possible summit on Ukraine without Ukraine raises concerns about its sovereignty and influence.
• Ukraine’s strikes on Russian infrastructure are discussed as a source of strategic leverage.
• European support remains important to Ukraine’s ability to resist pressure.
• Brazil’s runoff election reflects voter anger over crime, corruption, and weak economic growth.
• China’s growing economic role and Trump’s influence are reshaping politics across Latin America.

Links

Yaroslav Trofimov - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/yaroslav-trofimov
Eduardo Porter - https://www.theguardian.com/profile/eduardo-porter
Steven Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• U.S. pressure on Ukraine — How Trump’s approach to Zelensky and Ukraine is shaping the war and diplomatic negotiations.
• Intelligence and Starlink support — Why intelligence-sharing, targeting, and communications can be as critical as weapons on the battlefield.
• U.S.–Russia relations and the diesel deal — The implications of reported U.S. energy dealings with Moscow for sanctions, oil markets, and Putin’s position.
• Europe’s support for Ukraine — Whether European countries can sustain support and compensate if U.S. backing weakens.
• NATO’s security challenges — Alliance cohesion, hybrid threats, and the changing demands of collective defense.
• U.S. domestic politics and foreign policy — How political pressures in Washington, including the midterms, may influence decisions abroad.
• Houthi attacks and Saudi Arabia’s security — The impact of attacks on airports and energy infrastructure.
• Drones and asymmetric warfare — How lower-cost weapons challenge conventional military defenses.
• Red Sea security and global trade — The risks that regional conflict poses to shipping routes and supply chains.
• The future of U.S. alliances — How uncertainty about American commitments is affecting the calculations of partners in Europe, Ukraine, and the Gulf.

Links

Carla Anne Robbins - https://www.cfr.org/experts/carla-anne-robbins

Shona Murray - https://events.euronews.com/euronews-on-air/speaker/1136912/shona-murray
Elise Labott - https://substack.com/@eliselabott

Michael Shear - https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-d-shear

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

The panel assesses the Middle East after years of regional war, asking whether Israel’s military gains have come at the expense of lasting security, political stability, and international support. They also discuss how the conflict has reshaped American politics and weakened confidence in U.S. leadership across the region.

The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where battlefield developments, pressure on civilian infrastructure, and proposed business deals with Russia raise new questions about the path to peace. Finally, the group considers the rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak in Congo and whether a more inward-looking U.S. response could leave both America and the world less prepared.

Links

Matthew Kaminski - https://cepa.org/author/matthew-kaminski/
Anton Troianovski - https://www.nytimes.com/by/anton-troianovski
Yasmeen Abutaleb - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/yasmeen-abutaleb/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

China, Iraq, and Brexit: three shifts with global consequences

Ivo Daalder is joined by Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell to examine the strategy and symbolism behind three major international stories. The panel discusses Xi Jinping’s Washington visit and how the language around World War II could support Beijing’s preferred historical narrative. They consider whether the White House understood the significance of its messaging, and what the summit reveals about the wider U.S.-China relationship. The conversation then turns to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. The guests explore whether the move benefits Iran, what it could mean for Iraq’s security and the fight against ISIS, and how American allies might interpret Washington’s changing commitments. Finally, they look at Britain’s revived Brexit debate. With economic growth and trade increasingly central to the discussion, the panel considers what renewed EU ties could mean for the UK—and what rejoining would require.

In this episode:

• Xi’s visit and the politics of historical narratives
• U.S.-China competition and strategic messaging
• The consequences of the U.S. exit from Iraq
• Iran’s influence, Iraqi security, and the ISIS threat
• Britain’s changing debate about Brexit and EU membership
• What these stories suggest about U.S. global priorities

Guests:

Ken Moriyasu, Carla Anne Robbins, and Giles Whittell

Key Topics

• What Trump’s UN speech and meeting with Xi tell us about the current state of diplomacy
• How seriously to take Europe’s warnings about Russian threats
• The challenges NATO faces in deterring—and responding to—gray-zone attacks
• Whether Germany’s far-right gains foreshadow a wider European trend
• Why cultural identity and distrust of established parties are reshaping politics

Links

Karen DeYoung - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/karen-deyoung/

Steve Erlanger - https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger

Jamie Dettmer - https://www.politico.eu/staff/jamie-dettmer-3/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Martin Wolf argues that the Fed’s move is politically significant as much as economically justified, because Donald Trump’s demand for 1 percent rates is, in his words, “insane.”
• Missy Ryan adds that Trump’s economic focus seems centered less on inflation itself and more on the stock market and the AI boom, especially with the midterms looming.
• Peter Spiegel links Fed policy to the broader debt and tech borrowing picture, arguing that AI spending may be helping prop up markets even as it pushes rates higher.
• The panel debates whether higher rates can really fight a global inflation environment shaped by war, oil prices, and supply shocks.
• On Canada and Europe, Peter Spiegel says Mark Carney’s approach is partly symbolic but politically powerful, since it has helped rally Canadian patriotism against Trump.
• Missy Ryan stresses that Canada’s stance is rooted in sovereignty and values, but also constrained by how tightly integrated the Canadian and U.S. economies remain.
• Martin Wolf argues Europe is in a very different position from Canada because most of its trade is internal, and it could survive even a major rupture with the United States.
• The discussion returns repeatedly to the question of permanence: is Trump’s approach a temporary disruption, or a long-term reordering of U.S. alliances and trade policy?
• In the Saudi segment, Missy Ryan describes the Houthi conflict and the Iran war as a destabilizing force that has widened old regional fractures and exposed U.S. limits.
• Peter Spiegel raises the possibility that Gulf states may respond by diversifying security ties and increasing their own defense spending, even if China is not yet able to replace the United States.
• Martin Wolf suggests that if the United States becomes unreliable, regional powers may eventually move closer to Iran and a broader regional balance of power, rather than count on Washington.
• The episode closes on oil prices, with Wolf arguing that while the market could still worsen, it has so far adjusted better than expected and may not reach the catastrophic levels many feared.

Links

Missy Ryan - https://www.theatlantic.com/author/missy-ryan/

Martin Wolf - https://www.ft.com/martin-wolf

Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Nicholas Burns recounts being the new U.S. ambassador to NATO when the attacks happened and describes the urgent push to invoke Article V for the first time in NATO history.
• Meghan L. O’Sullivan explains how 9/11 helped push a generation of foreign policy professionals into government and public service, including her own move from Brookings to the State Department.
• Juliette Kayyem recalls being on maternity leave and on an Amtrak train to New York when the attacks unfolded.
• The group discusses how 9/11 changed the American national security mindset from treating terrorism as a niche issue to making it a central organizing concern.
• O’Sullivan breaks down the evolution of the phrases “you’re with us or against us” and “the war on terror,” arguing that both became more problematic over time than they were at the moment they were first used.
• Burns emphasizes that NATO allies were unified immediately after the attacks and that Canada was the first country to raise the idea of invoking Article V.
• The guests contrast the diplomatic and alliance-based response to 9/11 with the later turn toward preemption, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• O’Sullivan explains why the Iraq invasion cannot be understood apart from the post-9/11 atmosphere, even if the Iraq-9/11 connection itself was not proven.
• Kayyem describes the creation of homeland security as a major structural shift, from fragmented local and federal systems to a more centralized architecture with FEMA, the FBI, state homeland security advisors, and fusion-style coordination.
• The panel argues that domestic terrorism, political violence, technology, and radicalization now pose different challenges than the international terrorism focus that dominated the years after 9/11.
• Burns warns that the State Department and broader foreign policy bureaucracy have been weakened, arguing that America needs experienced diplomats and allies more than ever.
• The conversation closes with a shared lesson: America is strongest when it relies on friends, coordinates across institutions, and resists making the military the sole organizing principle of foreign policy.

Links

Juliette Kayyem - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/juliette-kayyem

Meghan L. O'Sullivan - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/meghan-osullivan

Nicholas Burns - https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/nicholas-burns

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• The Venezuela oil deal is framed as a huge geopolitical gamble, with claims of 65 billion barrels and a U.S. stake in a private Venezuelan company.
• Nahal Toosi explains why the deal is surrounded by legal, constitutional, and practical doubts, including questions about infrastructure, financing, and corruption.
• Alex Ward argues the deal reflects a Trump-era foreign policy that treats oil and regime change as spoils of victory, not just strategic assets.
• Shashank Joshi notes that Europeans see echoes of earlier resource anxieties, from Greenland to the Falklands, and worry about a broader collapse of principle in U.S. policy.
• The panel raises the possibility that the Venezuela arrangement could create incentives to delay democratic transition and keep an anti-democratic regime in place.
The military segment focuses on the strain caused by extended deployments in the Middle East, especially the impact on munitions stockpiles, carrier availability, and long-term maintenance.
• Joshi cites the depletion of Patriot interceptors and the ripple effects in Ukraine, where reduced interceptor capacity may be affecting defense against Russian missile attacks.
• Toosi warns that the U.S. is simultaneously damaging its diplomatic, development, trade, and military advantages, leaving Congress and Pentagon leadership slow to respond.
• On Russia, Alex Ward says Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip appears to be both a warning and a broader attempt to preserve a back-channel with Russian intelligence.
• Joshi and Toosi discuss Russian hybrid risk, including the concern that Moscow may test NATO without triggering a classic Article 5-style response.

Links

Nahal Toosi - https://www.politico.com/staff/nahal-toosi

Alexander Ward - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/alexander-ward

Shashank Joshi - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/shashank-joshi/

Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topicas

• Canada’s resistance to U.S. tariffs and what it means for Prime Minister Mark Carney
• Whether economic pressure can succeed against Iran where military action has not
• The weakening of U.S. leverage when allies are no longer willing to cooperate
• How Trump’s approach is changing the transatlantic relationship
• What fragmentation in Europe and the Gulf means for future global power

Links

Prashant Rao - https://www.semafor.com/author/prashant-rao

Matina Stevis-Gridneff - https://www.nytimes.com/by/matina-stevis-gridneff

Anton La Guardia - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/anton-la-guardia/
Ivo Daalder - https://www.ivodaalder.com/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Artificial intelligence as a world-changing technology
• The promise and risks of AI
• AI’s potential to improve science and medicine
• Power, agency, and democracy in the AI era
• The US-China race for AI dominance
• China’s centralized approach to AI development
• Europe’s role in AI governance and sovereignty
• Why infrastructure and data centers matter for AI
• The tension between innovation and regulation
• Safety concerns from AI lab leaders themselves
• How AI could affect jobs, markets, and national security
• The need for transparency, accountability, and public oversight
• How political backlash could shape future AI policy
• The possibility of global AI guardrails and coordination

Links

• Sebastian Mallaby — https://www.cfr.org/experts/sebastian-mallaby
• Evan Osnos — https://www.evanosnos.com/
• Marietje Schaake — https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/people/marietje-schaake
• Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
• World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Show Notes

In this episode, Ivo Daalder is joined by Steve Erlanger, Christopher Miller, and Carla Anne Robbins for a wide-ranging conversation about three tests of U.S. power: Iran, Ukraine, and Cuba. The discussion begins with Iran, where the panel explores whether Tehran is outlasting Washington in a long war of patience and why sanctions and military threats may not produce the outcome the U.S. wants.The conversation then turns to Ukraine, where listeners hear how Ukrainians are adapting to modern warfare, why air defense remains critical, and how shortages of Patriot interceptors are reshaping the battlefield. The panel also examines the uncertainty around U.S. support and the broader lessons Kyiv is teaching the West about decentralized warfare.Finally, the episode looks at Cuba, where pressure, collapse talk, and regime-change logic collide with the reality of blackouts, shortages, and no clear post-collapse plan. Across all three cases, the central question remains: what happens when the U.S. escalates before deciding what success actually looks like?

Iran and Oman appear to have reached a tentative agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, but is it a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or simply a pause in a much larger geopolitical conflict? At the same time, Europe is grappling with renewed migration pressures in Ceuta and record-breaking heat that underscores the growing political and economic consequences of climate change.

Host Giles Whittell is joined by Adam Cancryn (CNN), Shona Murray (Euronews), and Kim Willsher (The Observer) to connect these stories and explore what they reveal about the shifting global landscape. The panel examines President Trump's approach to Iran, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential impact on global energy markets. They also discuss Europe's response to increasing migration, the political tensions within the European Union, and the ways climate-related disasters are becoming central to policy debates.

Together, they explore how international crises increasingly shape domestic politics, influence elections, and test alliances across Europe and the United States. From energy security and border policy to climate resilience and transatlantic relations, this episode provides the context behind the headlines and explains why these interconnected challenges will continue to shape global affairs in the months ahead.

Key Topics

• The details and potential consequences of the US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement and its departure from previous non-proliferation standards
• The strategic importance of the Iran war, nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, and regional reactions to new US policies
• The Trump administration's approach to tariffs aimed at combating forced labor and their impact on international trade
• UK’s post-election foreign policy outlook under Prime Minister Burnham, focusing on relations with Europe, the US, and support for Ukraine
• NATO defense commitments, international defense spending, and how UK’s role in security continues to shape global stability
• The influence of the UK’s domestic political landscape on its foreign policy and international partnerships

Links

• Hugh Tomlinson — https://x.com/hughtomlinson
• Felicia Schwartz — https://x.com/felschwartz?lang=en
• Robbie Gramer — https://x.com/robbiegramer
• Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
• World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

In this episode, we take a critical look at FIFA, global sports politics, and the way major international events can reveal deeper institutional problems.

Key Topics

• Criticism of FIFA leadership and governance
• How scandals reveal an organization’s true priorities
• The political meaning of the World Cup and other major sporting events
• Large events can temporarily distract from deeper structural failures.
• Leadership is best judged under crisis, not during calm moments.
• Institutions often protect reputation before they protect integrity.

Links

• Mehreen Khan – https://x.com/MehreenKhn?lang=en
• Edward Luce – https://x.com/EdwardGLuce
• Bobby Ghosh – https://bobbyghosh.substack.com/
• Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
• World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

In this episode of World Review, we explore the shifting dynamics shaping global security, from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran brinkmanship to the political and military challenges facing Ukraine. The conversation also examines Gaza’s stalled recovery efforts and the role leadership style plays in both diplomacy and war.

Key topics include:

• Escalation risks in the Middle East
• Internal debates over U.S. military strategy
• Ukraine’s drone warfare innovation and leadership disputes
• Gaza reconstruction obstacles
• How trust, coalition-building, and execution shape international outcomes

The episode offers a sharp look at how geopolitics, technology, and political decision-making collide in real time.

Key Topics

• Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran
• Whether the Strait of Hormuz could become a toll-based choke point
• NATO unity, Trump’s unpredictability, and Europe’s response
• Greenland tensions and the future of transatlantic relations
• Russia’s fuel crisis, drone strikes, and domestic pressure on Putin
• The broader shift toward rearmament and a more fragmented world order

Links

Karin Axelsson - https://politiken.dk/person/7961_Karin_Axelsson

Anna Sauerbrey - https://ces.fas.harvard.edu/people/anna-sauerbrey

Peter Spiegel - https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/peter-spiegel/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• How the American experiment of government based on consent and inalienable rights ignited global movements and reshaped societies, from Europe to Asia.
• The complex legacy of America’s post-1945 institutional order, the Marshall Plan, NATO, United Nations, and whether this framework still works or if it's fundamentally broken.
• The rise of competing models like China’s authoritarian capitalism and the implications for democracies worldwide.
• Why America’s internal struggles, polarization, and quest for national self-redefinition threaten its ability to lead and inspire future generations.
• The risks and opportunities of a world where the U.S. steps back, and other nations forge a new, possibly more interdependent, global order.

Links

Zanny Minton Beddoes - https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/zanny-minton-beddoes/

James Harding - https://observer.co.uk/contributor/james-harding

Sylvie Kauffmann - https://www.lemonde.fr/en/signataires/sylvie-kauffmann/

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• The evolving political landscape in the UK a decade after Brexit, including public sentiment and potential reintegration into the EU
• The current state of Iran's nuclear deal negotiations, sanctions, and regional power dynamics
• Ukraine's recent large-scale strikes on Crimea targeting Russian military infrastructure and the implications for the ongoing war

Links

Catherine Philp - https://www.thetimes.com/profile/catherine-philp

Yaroslav Trofimov - https://www.wsj.com/news/author/yaroslav-trofimov

Yannis Palaiologos - https://def-ix.delphiforum.gr/speaker/12656901759
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder

Key Topics

• Geopolitical implications of the World Cup and its representation of global powers.
• Economic analysis of hosting the World Cup and its impact on host countries.
• FIFA's political dynamics and relationships with global leaders.
• Cultural and national identity shifts in international football.
• Stories of players with diverse backgrounds representing different nations.

Links

Giles Whittell - https://x.com/GWhittell
Mehreen Khan - https://x.com/MehreenKhn
Gideon Rachman - https://x.com/gideonrachman
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs — http://belfercenter.org/
World Review with Ivo Daalder — http://belfercenter.org/world-review-ivo-daalder