Central Air

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This week: friend-of-the-pod Nate Silver prepares us for next week's elections and lays out why his model gives Democrats overwhelming odds to reclaim the House of Representatives and a nearly three-in-four chance to retake the Senate, despite the unfavorable map.

Also this week, for premium subscribers: We talk about the spate of fake pollsters putting out made-up polls this cycle and we get Nate’s guidance for interpreting early returns on Election Night. In cocktail hour this week, we discuss Cheesecake Factory-gate and what kind of gay President Trump is.

For that list of special opportunities to see us next week — online, and, if you are in New York, in person, go to https://www.centralairpodcast.com.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Washington D.C. is in a recession, partly driven by DOGE and exacerbated by local policies that make it excessively costly to do business. Local elected officials want to copy the Mamdani playbook, but New York enjoys unique economic advantages other cities can’t rely on. We consider the diverging tracks of these two cities, and the lessons lawmakers can learn around the country.

During cocktail hour: we consider New Yorkmagazine’s cover story that alleges, with some justification, that chocolate is getting worse, and we discuss l’affaire Clarkson — singer Kelly Clarkson’s feud with a curiosity shop in Brooklyn, and the social media consumers around the world who increasingly can’t mind their own business when confronted with disputes between strangers.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: is it “depraved” to worry about whether AIs can feel pain? A lot of people in Silicon Valley really buy into the idea that they might be building the machine god, and they think this might even be a good idea, even if they also think we might end up enslaving the machine god and/or that the machine god might kill us all. Mike Solana, founder of Pirate Wires, joins us to help understand these influential weirdos and the influential weirdos they disagree with. We also, necessarily, talk some about what consciousness even is.

In cocktail hour this week for paying subscribers:

* SlutCon, an annual conference in San Francisco with lanyards and PowerPoints and what-not that is organized by an honest-to-god prostitute and which for some reason is popular among the AI safety crowd.

* The Cornell Seven case — which, rather like Silicon Valley, is an object lesson in why straight people shouldn’t be allowed to do ketamine.

* The bizarre conspiracy theory that James Talarico was in an mental institution, and how Republicans have mis-learned the lesson of the successful “they/them” ad.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark and host of the The Focus Group, joins us to discuss persuadable voters and the extensive conversations she has with them (the topic of her new book How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time). We talk about what drove these voters away from Democrats (high prices), what’s driving them back to Democrats (high prices), and what politicians should say and do in an economic environment where the government has limited ability to deliver relief from high prices. And since this is Central Air, we talk about the bond market, and why it’s very important to these voters, even if they don’t realize it.

That’s for all listeners this week. Paying subscribers get to stick around for cocktail hour, when we discuss:

The immigration trap facing the next Democratic president.

The president’s odd choice to go nuclear on Tom Cotton over Daylight Saving Time, and

In the wake of the drama at Last Ditch Bar, are lesbians okay?

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: with another “MeanToo” scandal in the news — that’s when a politician gets in trouble, not for sexual harassment but because someone thinks they were mean — we thought it was a good opportunity to ask Dave Weigel, Semafor’s intrepid politics reporter, whether anyone in Alaska is likely to care that Mary Peltola, Alaska’s Democratic candidate for Senate, called someone a “retard.”

Plus: other developments across the Senate map and what kinds of candidate oddities matter these days, and in cocktail hour (for paying subscribers), we talk about the revealing conversation Nikole Hannah-Jones had with her daughter on “This American Life” over the weekend, and we close with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s likely ambitions to run for Senate or president.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Jonathan Chait joins Josh, Ben and Megan to talk about Nikole Hannah-Jones' candid and thought-provoking essay reckoning with her decision to send her daughter to a neighborhood public school that was low-performing — and outrage from her daughter, now in high school, that she could have chosen a different path for her. We also discuss why Democrats have seemingly lost interest in making 'let's improve public education' part of their political project. And then we take on another thorny topic: the division within the Democratic Party about support for Israel. Paying subscribers hear that conversation and cocktail hour, in which we discuss pretty bad cocktails, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raising rates last week, and the Paramount deal.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: first, we are obligated to discuss Josh's newly blond hair and if it's a sign he's in crisis. Then: are we in the midst of a gay crisis? The first gay treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has failed at his quest to keep the 10-year Treasury yield under 5%. The gays Donald Trump detailed to the Kennedy Center have failed to produce a vibrant-yet-MAGAfied performing arts center. And now "the makers of AI keep saying AI might kill us all” has really broken through to the general public.

For paying subscribers: the absurdity of the president’s inflationary promise of $5,000 checks for every American (if they re-elect Republicans), the Calvinball rules of standing that have let the president build his illegal ballroom, and his sad and petty (and losing) campaign to get his name installed on the Kennedy Center, and Donald Trump Jr.'s sad and pitiful oligarch-funded second wedding. Finally, the AIs weigh in on Josh's hair and whether it carries a deep meaning.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: how the attack that “changed everything” has come to define less and less of our politics. In part that's because many Americans today are too young to remember 9/11, and in part it's because of three subsequent crises — the global financial crisis, the migration crisis, and COVID — and it's also because many Americans came to regret foreign policy decisions circa 2001-2003 that seemed like a good idea at the time.

Josh, Megan and Ben also talk about whether we’re entering yet another phase of politics, defined by AI, and how difficult it is to make economic policy right now when the outlook is much more uncertain than usual. During cocktail hour, Josh has notes from his trip to Europe about ice, driving and French superiority.

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This week: Annie Lowrey on the time, effort, money, and psychological costs some government policies impose on us. Filling out endless forms, repeatedly proving eligibility, telling the government what we owe in taxes even though it already knows what we owe — we love a conversation about how the government is ineffective and how it could be more effective.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Cranks make society work. We challenge the popular consensus, and we aren’t afraid to speak up even when we know what we have to say will be poorly received. Thank you to all the Central Air listeners who answered our call for your crankiest policy proposals. We discuss some of them: Should tax returns be public documents that any citizen can look up? Should you be able to submit a standing order that all your votes should be cast for your favorite political party, instead of having to tediously complete a ballot at every election? Should we geo-engineer a tornado inside the Astrodome to produce clean energy? Should we do daylight saving time backwards, so we spring forward in the fall?

Probably not. But maybe. Let’s discuss.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: David Ellison is displeased about the California-led lawsuit to stop the Paramount-Warner merger, and he’s threatening to move both studios out of the state. Is this threat credible?

Also this week: the Democratic establishment held off Thanksgiving-canceler Francesca Hong in the primary for Wisconsin governor, and we discuss the unhinged responses to the very grim news with the Jason Arday situation. And during cocktail hour, we look for silver linings — who in the Trump cabinet is actually doing a good job?

To hear the full episode, upgrade your subscription at https://www.centralairpodcast.com.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: UCLA sociology professor Gabriel Rossman joins us this week to talk about rough times in elite higher education. We start with a problem at the UC system itself: California’s top public universities haven’t considered test scores for admission since 2019, and that has led to the universities admitting some students who are wildly unprepared for college-level work. Then, behind the paywall: star scholar Jason Arday has resigned from Cambridge University in scandal, and it reflects a phenomenon Tyler Austin Harper complains about in hisAtlanticessay about his time as a professor at Bates College: universities being more interested in black academics’ political symbolism than their academic output, which is pretty racist, if you think about it.

Plus: ideological homogeneity in the humanities and humanistic social sciences (and in sociology specifically) and what could be done to combat it, and during cocktail hour, we talk about what “Woke 1” is and whether it’s really over, and we talk with Gabriel about his academic work on the laundering of disreputable financial exchanges — a useful lens for talking about both Melania Coin and the debate over whether men are really expected to send Ubers to fetch women for first dates.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson tells us all about the state of polling, what American voters are thinking about heading into the midterms, how AI and the death of the phone call are changing polling, and how polls identify fake responses. Kristen tells us about the “political tribes” that make up the Republican and Democratic parties, and how the middle-aged millennials and young adults of Gen Z are changing the landscape — that conversation is mostly for paying subscribers. Then, during cocktail hour (also just for paying subscribers), we discuss exciting food news: Alison Roman, like David Chang, shares my once-controversial-but-now-conventional opinion that grills ruin food.

To hear the whole episode (and all future episodes), upgrade your subscription now at www.centralairpodcast.com.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: It's another edition of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, and Maxwell Tani from Semafor joins us to talk about it. Could this humiliation be enough to end the dinner for good? Then: Have you heard about the new mayor in New York City? This guy, Zohran Mamdani, has been running the city for seven months, and he’s working on opening city-owned grocery stores that will sell meat and produce 30% below the city’s normal retail prices. We discuss that, and what Mamdani can do to prevent theft, bare shelves, and other problems that could arise with public-sector grocery. Plus: Mamdani's brewing fight with the teachers' union and never mind about arresting Benjamin Netanyahu...

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This week: Sonny Bunch joins us to talk about “The Odyssey,” what we thought of the film, whether the controversy about some casting decisions materialized, and more. Also this week: we consider the likely effects of the WBD-Paramount merger (if it is allowed to go through) and why the studios are spending so much money to produce films they dump on streaming. We discuss why Netflix’s stock is in so much trouble. During cocktail hour (free to all listeners this week) we discuss the stupid plan to adopt year-round daylight saving time, propose ideas to make soccer more interesting, and discuss how Josh has become an EV-driving lefty cuck.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Tyler Austin Harper returns to Central Air to discuss the ignominious end of Graham Platner’s campaign for U.S. Senate. Free subscribers hear part of that conversation, and paying subscribers hear the whole thing, plus our discussion about the legacy of Lindsey Graham — even the respectful remembrances treat him as a chameleon who was whatever he needed to be in order to further his foreign policy agenda — weird lawmaker absences on the Hill, and some lessons from Josh's trip to Yellowstone National Park for July 4, and the helpful ways that nature can put us in our place (ideally not by launching us into the air).

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Jason Furman joins the show this week for an economy-focused discussion. We start by looking at why public views about the economy have gotten so negative, the persistent economic problems people are so mad about, the obvious solution (it's fiscal consolidation — that is, tax increases and spending cuts), and what it could take to get us there. We also discuss Kevin Warsh's first actions as chair of the Fed.

For paying subscribers, we talk with Jason — who co-teaches Harvard’s largest undergraduate course — about the university’s efforts to unwind the rampant grade inflation that led to two-thirds of undergraduate grades being straight A’s. And we have another edition of cocktail hour, in which Megan, Ben and I reflect on our experiences of skipping grades in elementary school, we rank the best six New England states, I offer provocations about grilling, and we share our plans for celebrating America’s 250th birthday.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: the case for AI regulation and what it would look like, with Dean Ball, who helped to shape AI policy in the Trump White House and is soon to join OpenAI. Is bank regulation a good model for AI regulation, where companies follow rules about making their own rules? We discuss that, and whether we have other choices.

Then: for paying subscribers, this week’s episode ends with the very first (but not the last) Central Air cocktail hour, where Ben, Megan and I pour ourselves some drinks, unpack what we’ve heard from our guest, and try to get comfortable with what the future holds for us. To hear the whole episode, upgrade at https://www.centralairpodcast.com.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Andrew Sullivan joins us from Provincetown to assess the emergent Iran deal. Paying subscribers also get our discussion of racial unrest and immigration politics in the U.K., our debate how much Europe really needs to learn from the United States (a lot, I’d say, and not just about air conditioning), and our consideration of the joys of Europeans discovering exurban America (including Buc-ee’s!) as they attend the World Cup.

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit https://www.centralairpodcast.com

This week: Matt Yglesias joins us to recap WelcomeFest and discuss “dog-whistle moderation," and why the factional forces seeking to drag the Democratic Party to the center need to advocate specific moderation on specific issues. Then: why Maine Democratic voters are attached to Graham Platner despite his manifest defects, a mistake Washington D.C. voters appear poised to make, the city's failures to stop “teen takeovers,” California’s vote-count malaise, and Matt somewhat walks back his anti-dog-park position.

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