Intel at the Edge

On this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with Jonny Gannon, a 26-year CIA veteran who served as a case officer, worked in war zones, and twice held the role of chief of station. Gannon is one of the leading experts on Iran and the Gulf states.

They discuss the Iran war as the US moves forces back into the region and embassies across the GCC are on ordered departure. Gannon explains how he expects Tehran to respond, why economic pain is at the center of Iran’s strategy, and whether renewed military pressure can bring the regime back to the table.

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

On this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher talks with Brian Drake, former Chief AI Officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency and current Federal CTO at Accrete AI. They discuss how intelligence agencies should govern the AI systems they are rushing to deploy. Drawing from an early counter-fentanyl project, Drake reflects on how his mentor shifted from skepticism to seeing an ethical imperative for AI in intelligence. He breaks down the distinction between enterprise and retail AI, explains how machines capture tacit knowledge, and warns why over-reliance on generative AI for writing risks eroding analysts' critical thinking.

Drake also makes the case for a calibrated approach to automating the targeting cycle, argues why the IC is "taking a knee" when it should be moving faster, and offers actionable guidance for policymakers, the DNI, and the next generation of intelligence professionals.

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Host Chip Usher sits down with Kendrick Escobar — former intelligence officer, founder of MAIK AI, and author of AI as the Sixth Intelligence Discipline — to explore how generative AI is reshaping the craft of intelligence analysis. Kendrick lays out his three-phase framework for AI's evolving role (tool, intelligence discipline, and peer), explains why AI-generated outputs deserve to be treated as a distinct new source of intelligence alongside SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT, and makes the case that AI agents will eventually function as true "digital peers" rather than mere tools.

The conversation digs into tradecraft for evaluating AI outputs, how mentorship — not prompting — will define the analyst's future role, the persistent challenge of hallucinations, and who ultimately bears responsibility when an AI-assisted product fails. A candid look at where human judgment still matters most as the intelligence community adapts to an AI-augmented future.

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with Shelby Pierson, former Director for Analysis at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).

Shelby joined the intelligence community in 1999 as an imagery analyst and rose through the ranks — working Iraq ground forces analysis, denial and deception, election security as the DNI's lead, and ultimately serving as NGA's Director of Analysis.

Shelby recently authored "Sensing the Threat: Operationalizing Computer Vision for Intelligence and Warfighting," and in this conversation she unpacks how AI and computer vision are reshaping the discipline — from the days of physical light tables and film to today's data deluge of commercial, national, and airborne collection.

Topics covered include:
- Her path into the CIA and career highlights, including Operation Iraqi Freedom
- How the analyst's job has evolved from imagery exploitation to "data creation"
- The origins of computer vision in GEOINT, from change detection to Project Maven
- Why analyst staffing hasn't kept pace with the data explosion
- Where human judgment and tradecraft still matter most
- How today's crises move faster than the 13-day Cuban Missile Crisis timeline — and what that means for AI-assisted decision-making
- Pushing AI compute to the edge — including onboard satellites in orbit
- Her advice for the next generation of imagery analysts

🎧 Listen and subscribe for more conversations on how emerging technology is reshaping intelligence, defense, and national security.

00:00 - Introduction: Shelby Pierson & "Sensing the Threat"
01:05 - Shelby's Path into the Intelligence Community
02:29 - Early Career: Iraq, Denial & Deception, and Working with Engineers
05:03 - From NIM for Russia to Director of Analysis at NGA
05:30 - The Light Table Era vs. Today's Desktop Analysis
07:40 - The Data Deluge: Scale of Modern Imagery Collection
08:37 - Integration: How Analyst Workload Has Changed
09:26 - Staffing Hasn't Kept Pace with the Workload
10:35 - Technology as Offset vs. Replacement for Human Analysts
11:35 - What Is Computer Vision? Origins in NGA
14:20 - Change Detection: The Early Analytics Story
15:34 - Project Maven and Full Motion Video
17:19 - Beyond Visual: Hyperspectral, Radar & Data-Rich Sensors
20:21 - From Imagery Exploitation to Data Creation
20:50 - Why Now? The Convergence of Software, Storage & Compute
22:32 - Tradecraft, Authorship & Trusting the Models
24:51 - Oversight Standards: Are AI Outputs Held to the Same Bar?
25:47 - Error Tolerance: Change Detection vs. Targeting
26:38 - AI in the Kill Chain: The Israel Example
27:57 - Golden Dome and Split-Second Defensive Decisions
29:30 - Case Study: The Chinese Embassy & Iranian Girls' School Incidents
32:36 - Cuban Missile Crisis vs. Today's Compressed Decision Timelines
34:22 - Piecing Together Complex Intelligence Networks
35:17 - Offense vs. Defense: Rules of Engagement for AI
36:15 - Scaling for a Potential China Contingency
37:10 - AI at the Edge: Onboard Compute and Sensors in Orbit
40:07 - Advice for Aspiring Imagery Analysts
42:15 - Closing & Where to Find the Paper

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with Don Leka, Founder and CEO of Jumptuit, to explore a different kind of artificial intelligence — one built not on text, but on real-time data from the physical world.

Don shares his journey from building the Glide OS cloud platform in 2004, to founding Jumptuit, a company using a large dynamic reasoning model to track physical-world signals — from shipping movements and port activity to refinery output and geopolitical indicators — in near real time.

The conversation covers:

- Why Jumptuit's approach differs fundamentally from large language models

- How cross-sector data intersections can reveal probable events before they happen

- Using comparative, causal, and analogical reasoning to forecast geopolitical and economic shifts

- Case studies: Russia's GDP resilience despite sanctions, shifting oil demand, and instability in Niger and Albania

- What the intelligence community could gain from live, empirical, physical-world data

- A must-listen for anyone interested in AI, geopolitical forecasting, and the future of intelligence analysis beyond large language models.

0:00 Intro: AI Beyond LLMs & Meet Don Leka

1:16 Don Leka's Background & Building Glide OS (2004)

3:17 How Jumptuit's Approach Differs from ChatGPT & LLMs

5:10 What Data Jumptuit Collects (Persian Gulf Example)

9:50 Open Source Data & Cross-Sector Event Thresholds

10:48 Case Study: Operation Epic Fury & Iran War Assumptions

13:42 Large Dynamic Reasoning Model as Predictive Analytics Tool

16:16 Lessons from the Arab Spring & Traditional Intelligence Gaps

17:39 Why Historical Data Alone Misleads Forecasting

18:42 Case Study: Russia's GDP Resilience Despite Sanctions

21:10 Persian Gulf Tensions, Oil Prices & China's Reduced Demand

22:23 Ripple Effects: Japan, Albania & Global Instability

23:55 Is It the Data or the Algorithm? The "Secret Sauce"

24:40 Why LLMs Struggle with Outdated, Narrative-Based Data

26:25 Can Jumptuit's Model Be Distilled or Copied?

28:42 Beyond Geopolitics: Climate, Health & Individualized Intelligence

31:12 What the National Security Community Should Be Doing

32:40 How Jumptuit Complements (Not Competes With) LLMs

33:53 Key Customers: Finance, Energy, Defense & More

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Narrative intelligence is emerging as one of the intelligence community's most important new disciplines — and few people understand it better than Joe Stradinger.

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, Joe Stradinger — founder of Edge Theory and creator of the National Center for Narrative Intelligence in Oxford, Mississippi — joins Chip to break down what narrative intelligence actually is, how it differs from traditional social media monitoring, and why he believes it's become a central front in modern cognitive warfare.

They cover:

• Joe's path from CPA to early internet entrepreneur to national security advisor

• What "narrative intelligence" means and how it's detected, classified, and measured

• The concept of "intercontinental ballistic narratives" and how adversary messaging spreads over time

• How China, Russia, and other actors exploit real-world events to sow division

• Washington's growing (but still unsettled) response to cognitive warfare

• Why storytelling — from Joe's Mississippi Delta roots to America's own national narrative — may be the most powerful (and underused) tool in this fight

Whether you work in national security, business, or just want to better understand how information shapes belief and behavior, this conversation offers a rare look inside a discipline that's quietly reshaping how the U.S. thinks about influence, deterrence, and truth.

00:00 Intro

00:44 Joe's background & how he got into this space

03:12 Mississippi, storytelling, and why fiction is a weapon

05:04 What is narrative intelligence?

09:06 Tracking narratives over time (the CCP example)

13:21 Case study: the data center narrative war

17:29 How AI has collapsed the influence chain

18:40 Case study: Iran's Hollywood-style war narratives

21:14 Attribution: tracing a narrative back to its source

24:22 Federal vs. commercial — why U.S. citizens are never targeted

26:53 Real-world exploits: Baltimore Bridge, Silicon Valley Bank

27:41 The new NSC role & "putting the I back in DIME"

30:20 Why America needs to tell its own story

34:00 Educating the next generation

36:34 The National Center for Narrative Intelligence

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Four and a half months into the Iran war, what's actually left of Iran's nuclear program — and what would it take to keep it that way?

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher sits down with Amy McAuliffe, who recently retired from the CIA as the Assistant Director for Weapons and Counter Proliferation. Amy also served as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Assistant Director of CIA for the Near East.

Amy breaks down:

· Why she describes Iran's program as "down but not out" after the June 2025 and 2026 strikes on Natanz and Fordow

· The uncertainty around Iran's 60%-enriched uranium stockpile and where it may be located

· The impact of losing key nuclear scientists — and how much technical knowledge Iran has actually retained

· How the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei and the rise of new IRGC leadership could shift Iran's calculus toward weaponization

· What a credible future nuclear deal would need to include, from enrichment caps to IAEA verification

· Whether a purely military solution can ever fully resolve the nuclear question

· Her advice for young people considering a career in the U.S. intelligence community

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Kimi K3, China's largest open-weight AI model yet, just hit the public — and it's rewriting the terms of the US-China AI race. In this emergency episode, host Chip Usher sits down with David Lin, Senior Director for Tech Platforms at SCSP and CIA veteran, to unpack what K3's release really signals.

They dig into how the competition has shifted from a simple US-vs-China contest into a two-axis battle of open weights vs. closed weights, why K3 dropped right alongside Xi Jinping's World AI Conference speech, the eye-popping cost gap between K3 and frontier US models, and the question of large-scale model distillation and IP theft.

They close out with a look at Nvidia's Jensen Huang and a growing coalition of US companies pushing back against a closed-weight future. It's a fast-moving landscape — and this conversation captures exactly where things stand today.

00:00 — Intro: Kimi K3 drops

01:20 — What K3 is and how it compares

03:18 — Open weights vs. closed weights

07:14 — Beijing's role and export controls

12:42 — Security risks of open weights

15:32 — Distillation and IP theft

21:22 — Nvidia and the US open-weight push

24:25 — Closing thoughts

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of “Intel at the Edge”, Chip Usher sits down with Ansel Stein, Vice President of Operations at Crisis24 and a former CIA analyst, to explore how artificial intelligence is reshaping the way private-sector companies access intelligence analysis.

Stein discusses how Crisis24 is delivering AI-generated intelligence directly to corporate C-suites — from geopolitical risk to tailored daily briefings built on a company's own institutional knowledge. The conversation digs into the tradecraft behind the tools: how intelligence community standards are codified into AI systems, how human oversight fits into an AI-driven analytic process, and how self-improving models are changing the relationship between analysts and decision-makers.

Ansel and Chip also look ahead to how this "intelligence-as-a-service" model might eventually influence government intelligence organizations, and why deep organizational context and culture will remain a human differentiator even as raw intelligence becomes cheaper and more democratized through AI.

0:00 – Introduction

0:46 – Welcome, Ansel Stein

1:12 – Ansel's path from government to Crisis24

2:32 – Why join a company at the intersection of intel and AI

3:48 – What Crisis24 delivers

6:39 – Serving private-sector clients

6:56 – Tailoring intelligence for corporate use

8:46 – Intelligence-as-a-service for the C-suite

10:13 – How AI-generated analysis works

10:40 – Where's the human in the loop?

12:14 – The National Intelligence Priorities Framework

15:23 – Intelligence Community Directives and analytic standards

16:13 – Codifying tradecraft into AI systems

17:44 – Real-world example: a global executive's daily briefing

18:28 – Building in company-specific expertise

19:43 – Trust and adoption among clients

22:11 – Self-improving AI systems

24:27 – Speed, scale, and organizational accountability

26:15 – Correcting AI mistakes and shifting analytic lines

26:42 – Data ownership and client control

29:26 – Educating companies on the value of intelligence

29:54 – Structuring human-AI analytic teams

33:13 – Will government adopt this next?

35:07 – Where the industry is headed

36:57 – Early movers and the future of decision-making

38:39 – Why organizational culture still matters

39:15 – Closing thoughts

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Futurist Ari Wallach joins Intel at the Edge to discuss why the U.S. government canceled its long-range forecasting program — and what it costs us. From scenario planning and megatrends to AI, loneliness, and narrative warfare, Wallach makes the case for embedding foresight into how America thinks and acts.

Wallach is the founder of Long Path Labs and the former host of the PBS television series A Brief History of the Future. He has advised the Department of State, the United Nations Refugee Agency, and consulted on strategic foresight — the discipline of mapping not just what is likely to happen, but what could happen, and how to recognize the early signals that tell you which future is taking shape.

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of “Intel at the Edge”, former NSA Director General Tim Haugh and former GCHQ Director Sir Jeremy Fleming sit down for a rare, candid conversation about one of the most consequential intelligence relationships in the world. From the wartime roots at Bletchley Park to the age of AI and quantum computing, they explore how the US-UK signals intelligence alliance has evolved over 80+ years — and what it must do to stay ahead of an increasingly complex threat landscape.

Topics covered: The origins of the NSA-GCHQ SIGINT partnership How AI is transforming intelligence work China, cyber threats, and the scale of modern adversaries Space, climate change, and emerging national security domains The critical role of private sector partnerships Advice for the next generation of intelligence leaders

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

From rare earth minerals to nitrocellulose, Exiger CEO Brandon Daniels warns that invisible vulnerabilities in America's supply chains pose serious national security risks. He also makes the case for smarter public-private partnerships and AI-driven tools to close the gap before adversaries exploit it.

Recorded at the AI+ Expo, Daniels draws on his experience leading one of the world's most advanced supply chain intelligence platforms to argue that the U.S. must move beyond reactive policy and invest in proactive visibility. Additionally, he shares a candid and measured assessment of where generative AI stands today — acknowledging its promise for workforce augmentation while cautioning that complex, large-scale applications still require significant human engineering talent.

Topics: National Security, Critical Minerals, Public-Private Partnerships, China Competition, Supply Chain Resilience

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of "Intel at the Edge", host Chip Usher is joined by Amos Lahav, founder of Airis Labs, to examine one of the most consequential questions in modern defense: what happens when AI becomes the backbone of intelligence collection and battlefield targeting? Drawing on hard lessons from the October 7th intelligence failure, the rise of systems like Gospel, and the growing threat of adversarial AI, Lahav offers a firsthand account of how the technology is changing — and sometimes failing — the people who depend on it most.

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Two senior CIA veterans — Wayne McCool, former Associate Deputy Director for Analysis, and Bruce Frost of "Rhombus Power" — cut through the hype. They discuss how AI is being used inside the intelligence community today, what the real limitations are, and what the future of all-source analysis looks like.

0:00:10 — Introduction & Context

0:01:24 — Panel Introductions: Wayne McCool & Bruce Frost

0:02:28 — AI as a "Silver Bullet"? Where It's Delivering Real Value

0:05:39 — Rhombus Power's Approach: Empowering the Analyst

0:06:55 — Predicting Threats: Undersea Cables & Satellites

0:08:20 — Building Trust in AI: Human-in-the-Loop at CIA

0:09:48 — Experiment Widely, Adopt Specifically

0:11:09 — The Sourcing Problem: Can You Cite AI in Intelligence Products?

0:13:02 — Trust & Model Auditability: A Decade-Long Journey

0:14:26 — Defining Good Analysis in an AI-Augmented World

0:15:56 — Speed to Insight & the Data Overload Problem

0:18:09 — The Repeatability Problem with LLMs

0:19:32 — Retrieval-Augmented Generation & Managing Hallucinations

0:21:12 — Analyst Skepticism as a Core Tradecraft Skill

0:22:43 — Curating Data: Giving Analysts Control Over Outputs

0:24:39 — The Human Side: Will AI Replace Analyst Expertise?

0:25:46 — Automation Bias & the Risk of Eroding Critical Thinking

0:27:46 — How AI Is Changing the Editing & Review Process

0:29:07 — The Future Role of the Reviewer

0:29:52 — AI as a Training & Feedback Tool for Junior Analysts

0:31:09 — What Does the Analytic Team of the Future Look Like?

0:32:06 — Closing Thoughts & Final Takeaways

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

FISA Section 702 is one of the most powerful — and controversial — surveillance laws in the United States. It allows the U.S. intelligence community to collect electronic communications from foreign targets passing through American company infrastructure, without a traditional warrant.

In this episode, we sit down with Brett Freeman, a former attorney at the NSA, the National Counterterrorism Center, and the Department of Justice's National Security Division, who has spent years briefing the White House and Congress on exactly how this law works.

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00:00:09 - Introduction: What is FISA Section 702?

00:01:47 - Guest Introduction: Brett Freeman

00:02:00 - Brett's Background & Career in Intelligence Law

00:04:16 - FISA 101: The History of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act

00:05:16 - How FISA Worked Before 9/11

00:06:13 - How 9/11 & the Internet Changed Everything

00:42:26 - The Reauthorization Debate in Congress

00:43:34 - Trump Administration's Stance on 702

00:44:31 - What a Clean vs. Reformed Reauthorization Means

00:45:30 - How Many Times Can 702 Be Reformed Before It Breaks?

00:47:44 - The Role of Sunset Clauses in National Security Law

00:49:06 - Artificial Intelligence & FISA Section 702

00:52:07 - Closing Remarks

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

With the Trump-Xi summit approaching, former CIA senior China analyst Chris Johnson joins “Intel at the Edge” to give an unvarnished assessment of Beijing's priorities, Xi Jinping's mindset, and how China is navigating an increasingly unpredictable America.

Chris draws on over two decades in the US intelligence and foreign affairs communities to explain what Xi really wants from this summit, how the rare earth standoff reshaped the bilateral relationship, and why China's long-term focus is breaking America's technological chokehold — not winning a diplomatic photo op.

00:00 - Introduction & Guest Bio

01:35 - How Important Is the Summit to Xi Jinping?

03:17 - Xi's Real Goal: Stability Over Diplomacy

04:41 - How Beijing Is Briefing Xi on Trump

05:01 - Xi's Gamble: The Rare Earth Sword & Staring Trump Down

06:07 - The Other Side: US Hegemonism Is on the Prowl

07:13 - The Wounded Animal: How Beijing Reads America Right Now

07:37 - Xi's Play: Buy Trump Off & Wait Him Out

20:10 - What Xi Will Put on the Table on Taiwan

21:18 - Xi's Real Priority: Breaking the Semiconductor Chokehold

26:14 - Summit Timing & Xi's Return Visit Window

27:02 - The Atmospherics: How China Stages These Meetings

28:20 - Trump Treats Xi as an Equal — And Xi Knows It

28:40 - "Trump Sees Xi as a Badass"

29:57 - How Confident Is Beijing About Winning the Long Game?

30:21 - Short Term Confident, Long Term Uncertain

31:22 - China's Real Problems: Demographics, Debt & the Economy

32:31 - What Keeps Xi Up at Night

32:53 - Closing Remarks

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

China didn’t just compete with the United States — it harvested America’s innovation. In this episode of “Intel at the Edge” Andrew Badger joins Chip Usher to discuss The Great Heist — the story of how China used industrial espionage, talent recruitment, and a whole-of-society strategy to leapfrog the U.S. in critical technologies.

From AI and hypersonic missiles to semiconductor manufacturing and electric vehicles, this conversation explores:

• How China turned WTO entry into a collection apparatus

• The rise of the Ministry of State Security’s global network

• The Tesla “billion-dollar thumb drive” case

• Hypersonic and the Los Alamos connection

• Why economic security is national security

• What the U.S. intelligence community must do differently

If the 20th century was about military dominance, the 21st century is about technological power. The question is not whether China is competing — it’s whether America is prepared.

00:00 Intro – The Great Heist

02:20 From DIA to Industrial Espionage

03:15 WTO 2000: The Turning Point

06:25 The “Kaspersky Doctrine” Strategy

08:10 The Most Consequential Economic Heist in History

10:30 China’s Whole-of-Society Intelligence Model

13:20 Sun Tzu & The Cultural Mindset Behind Espionage

17:40 The Cost: $600–800 Billion a Year

21:05 The Tesla “Billion-Dollar Thumb Drive”

22:45 Hypersonic & The Los Alamos Connection

25:15 “We Let Them Do It” – Strategic Distraction

29:20 The China Initiative & Political Hesitation

31:35 AI, Quantum & Emerging Tech Theft

34:20 The Wave Energy Case Study

36:40 Semiconductor War & ASML

38:15 Economic Security = National Security

40:20 Time to Stop Playing Defense

43:30 OPSEC Mindset & Intelligence Reform

46:50 Final Thoughts

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Admiral Michael Studeman joins "Intel at the Edge " to discuss the shifting landscape of Indo-Pacific security. Drawing from his decades of experience in the U.S. Intelligence Community, including as the Director of Intelligence at Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Studeman provides a rare inside look into how America’s intelligence services view China’s growing military power and how Beijing is positioning itself for regional and global leadership.

Additionally, as Former Director of the Office of Naval Intelligence, Admiral Studeman breaks down the sudden removal of General Zhang Youxia and what it means for the future of the PLA. Is Xi Jinping clearing out "overcautious" generals to make room for "Yes Men!"? We dive deep into China's massive military modernization and why Admiral Studeman believes the "window of greatest danger" is closer than we think.

00:00:09 – Introduction: Admiral Mike Studeman’s 35-Year Career

00:01:37 – Welcome & Setting the Stage for the China Challenge

00:02:27 – The Scale and Speed of PLA Modernization

00:05:09 – China's Navy: A Peer Global Power

00:07:22 – Latent Power vs. Ready Power: How China Converts Wealth to Military Strength

00:09:58 – Comprehensive National Power & The Misdiagnosis of China’s Strategy

00:11:36 – Political Warfare: China’s "Short of War" Expansion

00:13:55 – Regional Anxiety & China’s Daily Influence Operations

00:15:25 – Analyzing the Ouster of General Zhang Youxia

00:19:56 – Xi Jinping’s Fourth Term & The Consolidation of "Yes Men"

00:21:51 – Pressure Tactics Around Taiwan: An Ongoing Cognitive War

00:25:24 – The "Window of Greatest Danger" (Late 2020s–Early 2030s)

00:29:28 – Reforming the Intelligence Community: Beyond the "Ivory Tower"

00:33:49 – Harnessing Open Source & Advanced Technology

00:39:03 – Economic Intelligence: The Blind Spot of 21st Century Security

00:41:54 – Protecting National Competitiveness through Private Sector Dialog

00:44:36 – Advice for the Next Generation: Courage and Iron Integrity

00:47:12 – Closing Remarks & Future Military Outlook

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

With two U.S. carrier strike groups converging on Iran and a presidential deadline looming, the clock is ticking. In this urgent episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher — Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) — sits down with Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the CIA, to assess what may be one of the most consequential moments in U.S.-Iran relations in decades.

They cover the state of diplomacy ahead of the Geneva talks, whether Iran will ever genuinely negotiate on its nuclear and missile programs, the risks of miscalculation, Iranian retaliation scenarios, regime stability, and the sweeping transformation reshaping the broader Middle East. Norman Roule spent over three decades as a senior CIA operations officer, including as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran — one of the most critical and sensitive intelligence roles in the U.S. government.

🔔 Subscribe for more expert intelligence and national security analysis from SCSP.

00:00 – Introduction: Emergency Podcast on the Iran Situation

00:40 – Guest Introduction: Norm Roule’s CIA and Intelligence Background

01:25 – Announcement: AI Plus Intelligence Summit at the Waldorf Astoria 02:03 – Current Military Posture: Carrier Strike Groups and Aircraft Deployment

02:28 – The Diplomatic Inflection Point and March Deadlines

03:38 – Core Issues: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Enrichment Deals

05:31 – U.S. Demands: Missiles and the "Axis of Resistance"

07:56 – Iran’s Missile Arsenal and ICBM Capabilities

08:33 – Upcoming Geneva Talks and Potential for Miscalculation

10:51 – Evaluating Potential U.S. Military Strikes and Iranian Retaliation

14:06 – Degradation of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian Ballistic Assets

16:03 – Diplomacy vs. Military Action: What Compels Tehran to Negotiate?

18:44 – Regime Stability: Domestic Protests and Internal Pressures

20:54 – Outlook: How the Next Two Weeks Will Play Out

25:22 – Regional Dynamics: Shifting U.S. Commitments and Middle East Change

30:25 – Closing Remarks and Future Updates

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.

In this episode of Intel at the Edge, host Chip Usher is joined by Heather Conley, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a leading expert on Arctic security. Together, they unpack the strategic value of Greenland and the evolving geopolitical stakes in the Arctic. In this episode, we discuss: The Strategic Imperative: Why Greenland serves as a "first line of defense" for North America, providing early warning for ballistic missiles and tracking Russian nuclear submarines. Russia & China’s Presence: How Russia has militarized the region since 2014 and China’s ambition to become a "great polar power" by 2030. The "Ownership" Debate: Analyzing the diplomatic impact of President Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland and what it means for the 225-year relationship with the Kingdom of Denmark. The Future of the Arctic: Why the U.S. needs to prepare for the Arctic of 2040 today by investing in icebreakers, ISR sensors, and a persistent presence.

00:00 – Introduction

01:26 – Background on President Trump’s Interest

02:38 – The Strategic Value of "Eyes and Ears"

03:47 – Ownership vs. Partnership

05:15 – Russia: The Arctic Superpower

07:52 – China: The "Near-Arctic State" Ambition

09:44 – The North Pacific vs. North Atlantic Vectors

12:15 – Missile Defense and the "Golden Dome"

15:13 – Economic Potential: Critical Minerals

17:37 – The "Alaska First" Perspective

20:01 – The Icebreaker Gap

23:08 – History of U.S. Purchase Attempts

27:59 – Post-Cold War Atrophy

30:47 – NATO’s Future Role: "Arctic Sentry"

35:25 – The Next Strategic Frontiers: Seabed and Space

Intel at the Edge Podcast is a product of the Special Competitive Studies Project.