Optimist Economy

Since the U.S. Supreme Court let states legalize betting on sports in 2018, gambling has exploded. More than half of men ages 18 to 49 say they have an active account with an online sportsbook. Want to bet on a game, a play, or even an individual performance? The bookie is always open on your phone, and it sends promo credits to keep you in the game. Young men see the harm up close. The share of men under 30 who call legal sports betting bad for society has more than doubled since 2022, to 47%. Built to be addictive, sports betting is like cigarettes—and deserves a public health response.

Chapters:

00:01:02 Announcements

00:02:27 Retcon: Healthcare moral hazard vs. cost-sharing; networks and military branches

00:07:37 Terms & Conditions: Handle, the hold, and the tulip bubble

00:12:52 Big Pilcrow: Sports betting, prediction markets, and addiction

00:41:42 Executive Orders: Free museum entry for union members; kid-sized sink staircases

00:44:26 Spiritual Sponsors: Hermanos Gutiérrez; good procedural movies

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Over a year into the administration's anti-immigration agenda, we’re seeing the economic fallout. For the first time in at least 50 years, estimates are that we lost immigrants on net; far fewer than usual arrived and a somewhat higher than usual number left. But if anyone benefited from that shift, it wasn’t U.S.-born workers. Even against the backdrop of our weak labor market, foreign-born workers now have slightly lower unemployment rates and higher labor market participation than they did two years ago. Their wages have also ticked up. Meanwhile, reduced population growth has thrown the country’s economic benchmarks into chaos, making it harder to interpret job creation, GDP, and the health of the labor market.

Chapters:

00:00:50 Announcements: Send us your anticipated Thanksgiving dinner fights

00:01:45 Retcon: Consumer sentiment update, auto-enrollment for Trump Accounts

00:07:43 Terms & Conditions: Plutocratic

00:08:42 Big Pilcrow: Immigration and the Economy

00:36:38 Executive Orders: “The media isn’t covering this” comments; best-of award for bookstore tote bags.

00:38:31 Spiritual Sponsors: Sonoratown and an IPA on tap

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The Consumer Sentiment Index has tracked how Americans experience the U.S. economy through bouts of runaway inflation, a mortgage crisis, stock market bubbles, and six recessions. And yet the scores right now are lower than at any of those moments. After nearly 50 years of tracking by the University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment has broken through the basement. Beneath the five index questions are some clues as to why: Since 2008, the number of people who say the government is doing a poor job has grown from about a third to about three-quarters. This dissatisfaction has been a slow burn — and it’s also evidence that Americans are ready for bold, non-incremental economic change.

0:00 — Opening

6:25 — Retcon: Vacation Days & Moral Hazard in Healthcare

11:18 — Terms & Conditions: Likert Scale

14:24 — The Big Pilcrow: What’s Consumer Sentiment Telling Us?

17:20 — Record Lows: Sentiment Breaks From the Other Economic Metrics

20:54 — The Five Index Questions: Take Consumer Sentiment Survey Yourself!

26:55 — How’s the Government Doing Managing the Economy? Survey says…Poor

29:39 — It's the Economy, Stupid

31:16 — Partisanship Cancels Itself Out

33:11 — Why This Isn't the Same as What Happened to Biden

35:25 — Who Does Feel Good?

36:07 — Low Sentiment Deserves Big Policy

38:07 — Executive Orders: Hold the reservation. Too many eggs.

41:52 — Spiritual Sponsors: So, so many

47:17 — Credits

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(Originally aired June 10, 2025) The national debt is $36 trillion. That could be a panic-inducing big number. So maybe it will help to understand how we ran up that debt. We've blown 37% of it on tax cuts, with precious little to show for that. But 28% went to stabilize the economy during two major crises (in ‘08-’09 and during the COVID pandemic), which is when you do want the federal government to pull out its credit card. Good news is we don’t have to get the debt to zero. We just need to get it moving in that direction. And for listeners waiting for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) to make a cameo, that moment has arrived.

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Read more:

• From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001 [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 2024]
• Economic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [Congressional Research Service, 2025]
• Is Modern Monetary Theory Nutty or Essential? [The Economist, 2019]
Is This What Winning Looks Like?: Modern Monetary Theory, the buzziest economic idea in decades, got a pandemic tryout of sorts. Now inflation is testing its limits. [New York Times, 2022]

Optimist Economy is on break this month, but we know that optimist listeners are interested in tales of economic history, issues of inequality and movements for change. So we thought some of you might enjoy "Occupy!" a six-part narrative series about Occupy Wall Street, the 2011 protest village that lasted nearly two months and turned a spotlight on systemic economic inequality in the U.S.

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EPISODE 1: An Invitation

In 2011, a handful of skeptical New Yorkers answer a call to Occupy Wall Street. What they find feels less like a protest and more like a glimpse of a different world—one where people openly share stories of debt, hardship, and frustration. They start to build an anti-capitalist village in a tiny Manhattan park — under the watchful eyes of police. This is the first episode of Future Hindsight’s brand new 6-part series, OCCUPY! An Unfinished Uprising. Subscribe to Future Hindsight wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss a single episode!

Want to dive deeper? Listen to these episodes of Future Hindsight:

• For a conversation on activism with a co-founder of Occupy Wall Street, tune in to this episode with Micah White: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/micah-white
• For a recap of how American capitalism evolved into what it is today, listen to this episode with Kurt Andersen: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/americas-evil-geniuses-kurt-andersen
• On solidarity and mutual aid, listen to this conversation with Manuel Pastor: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/solidarity-and-mutuality-manuel-pastor

Credits:

• Host / Executive Producer: Mila Atmos
• Producer / Writer: Maria Luisa Tucker
• Audio Producer: Zack Travis
• Additional production help: Mia Warren, Erika Gjada, Megan Detrie, Lizzie Jacobs, and Ilya Magazanin
• Archival research: Marisa Holmes
• Archival material courtesy of: Occupy Wall Street Media Working Group.
• Original music: Rude Mechanical Orchestra and Puge Ruhe

Special thanks to T.J. Raphael, Lauren Passell, Arielle Nissenblatt, and Kate Blumenfeld for being our first listeners and sounding boards, and to Tom Koenig for his support.

Distributed by PRX.

Nearly 90% of private-sector workers get paid vacation days from their job, but a Pew survey found 46% leave at least some of it on the table. Government survey data also show that the share of workers who are on vacation in any given week has fall by about half between 1980 and 2022. Blame thin staffing, guilt culture, and “PTO bundles” that push people to ration days between vacation days and sick leave. The fix exists elsewhere: the European Union, for instance, guarantees 20 paid days a year. If a Costco cashier is able to vacation in Europe twice, so should you.

Chapters:

0:52 Announcements

2:53 Retcon Marathon

11:01 Terms & Conditions: Statutory Leave

12:04 Big Pilcrow: Vacation Days

14:03 Why Do We Think We Can't Take Time Off?

16:01 No Staffing Slack in the Office

16:51 Vacation Guilt is a Real Thing

18:51 What's Worker Power Got to Do With It?

20:20 Decline in Days Off: What the Data Says

21:17 Vague Numbers of Vacation Days

24:23 Cost of Travel is Up

24:56 Statutory Leave Could Create Jobs

26:28 What are Workers Leaving on the Table?

28:48 How Much Does Vacation Time Cost Employers?

31:08 Vacation Marxist Economics-Style

34:40 The Curse of the Long-Weekend Vacation

38:21 Could the Government Mandate Vacation Time?

42:46 Executive Orders: ACFC wins and Americans with Children Act

46:23 Spiritual Sponsors: Lizards!

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About 18% of U.S. GDP every year gets spent on health care. Half of that, 9%, is coming from the government, which is about the whole cost of other countries’ public health programs. In other words, for what the U.S. spends on Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, VA benefits, and the tax write-off for employer-sponsored plans, we could have free basic health insurance for everyone. This is why the co-authors of the 2023 book “We’ve Got You Covered” describe the current health insurance system as a total tear-down. We could have universal insurance coverage for all with no tax hike if we started building from the ground up.

Chapters:

0:00 Announcements

0:58 Retcon — Costco cashier's $33/hr job and career security

2:49 Terms & Conditions — Political economy, Cost Sharing, Gatekeeping

7:45 The Big Pilcrow: “Americare… Just Enough”

8:08 Healthcare vs. health insurance — why this is really an insurance/payer fight

12:53 We have 5+ public health programs already

17:07 Health economist Amy Finkelstein's research: "It's a tear-down, not a fixer-upper"

19:55 The proposed system — universal basic coverage + letting “rich people rich" without letting them opt out

28:11What Americans would love or hate

40:44 This health world changed a lot since Obamacare

43:20 Executive Orders — Airport boarding pass warnings, living-roof bus stops

45:20 Spiritual Sponsors — Resurrection fern, Aunt Fern

46:42 Credits

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Just-in-time scheduling lets an algorithm decide when — and whether — millions of people work. Surveys find 40% of shift workers (mostly in retail and food service) don’t know their schedule a week in advance. They can also get sent home mid-shift or asked to be on call, unpaid. Studies show that more than 50% of hourly workers’ income swings up to 30% month-to-month, making it hard to budget for rent, qualify for benefits, or plan. A landmark study done at The Gap a decade ago proved stable schedules boost not only morale, but sales, so this isn't even bad for business. We already have fair workweek laws in many big cities, but this is a no-brainer for an update to the federal Fair Labor Standards Act.

Chapters:

1:01 Announcements — Review shoutouts, Benevity donor thanks.

2:15 Retcon — July 4th recap, AI job-loss predictions walked back.

7:29 Terms & Conditions — Just In Time scheduling and clopening.

10:21 The Big Pilcrow: Underwork — Why part-time and shift workers get scheduled unfairly.

13:50 How the BLS tracks part-time hours by industry.

17:05 Economic vs. non-economic part-time reasons.

25:05 The Gap Study — Predictive scheduling boosted sales 7%.

28:22 Consequences — Income volatility and benefits fraud traps.

32:06 Fair workweek law and bills

35:20 Labor market regulation as low-cost policy.

41:59 Executive Orders — Credit card charge names, smaller jar lids.

43:52 Spiritual Sponsors — WaPo editorial takedown, new yoga studio.

48:12 Credits

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Nobody has more riding on any changes to Social Security than people under 40. The trust fund is currently projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, but it could be sooner. Every election, starting in November, selects the lawmakers who will shape the program’s future. Neglecting to fix its finances will mean an automatic 22% cut to everyone's benefit. But for Millennials and Zoomers, what’s at stake isn't your elders’ monthly check — it’s the only life insurance, disability insurance, and old-age poverty insurance guaranteed to follow you through every job you'll ever have.

Chapters:

1:21 Announcements — Unbleeped feed, subscribe reminders.

2:23 Retcon — Seed OK savings accounts follow-up.

4:36 Terms & Conditions — Social insurance vs. private insurance.

8:42 Big Pilcrow — Under 40? Time to tune in to the Social Security debate.

11:51 Youth Skepticism — Why young people have always doubted Social Security, and how that's politically exploited.

16:56 OBBA Impact — How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut Social Security's revenue.

18:37 Immigration Trends — Deportations and lower immigration also hurt.

21:11 Elections Have Begun — Social Security as a live political battleground.

22:35 First Beneficiaries — What studies of early recipients tell us.

30:36 Otherwise Uninsurable Risks — Death, disability, savings, longevity, inflation.

33:17 Paid Family Leave — Could Social Security's model extend to paid leave?

34:21 Claim Ownership — Youth should own this program.

37:08 Cuts by Geography — Rural states will get hit hardest if cuts come.

38:27 Executive Orders — Casting ages, cosmetic disclosure.

40:22 Spiritual Sponsors — World Cup, Jeopardy! triumph.

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(Originally aired 6/24/2025) One in five workers in the United States was born in another country. Without them, the country’s prime-age workforce would be shrinking, and thus so would our economy. So the calumny (Terms & Conditions) directed at immigrants is at odds with the basic fact that the U.S. needs them. What about depressing wages? Research finds such a mixed bag of results that the overall effect is about zero. Indeed, if the goal is to save “American jobs” or help American workers, there are a lot more effective ways to spend $185 billion than on a massive crackdown on immigration rules.

Chapters:

00:02:34 Announcements
00:05:55 Retcon

00:10:43 Terms & Conditions

00:12:21 Big Pilcrow

00:43:07 Executive Orders

00:49:12 Spiritual Sponsors

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It’s the United States’ semiquincentennial … and one of us is not feeling it. The other is literally carrying a flag in her bag — and that’s just her road flag. Kathryn Anne Edwards makes her case for optimism right now: The U.S. is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic and cultural shifts of any industrialized nation. Americans agree that Congress is broken. And the people's agenda on wages, childcare, money in politics, and Social Security polls above 80%. Maybe this isn’t a backslide. It's just what clearing the air looks like.

Chapters:

00:01:21 Announcements

00:04:10 Retcon: More on the national anthem

00:06:36 Terms & Conditions: Origin of "the melting pot"

00:08:01 Big Pilcrow: Make Robin Optimistic about America

00:48:17 Executive Orders: End gerrymandering; mandatory hearings on supermajority issues

00:50:03 Spiritual Sponsors: Knicks celebrations; bourbon in Louisville

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We can’t give financial advice. Or feedback on your 20-page tax proposal. But economist Kathryn Edwards did take a run at nearly 20 listener questions in under 60 minutes. Among them: Why care about birth rates if robots are taking all the jobs? What happens if the AI bubble bursts? Will the dollar collapse? Can the bond market sway the White House? Plus: Why the minimum wage matters even if it doesn’t alleviate most poverty and how to argue for universal free school lunch.

Chapters:

1:43 — AI & birth rates
2:57 — AI & birth rates (cont.)
5:43 — AI bubble burst
8:11 — The experience of inflation
11:20 — Minimum wage & poverty
13:55 — Job loss after 50
17:30 — Productivity squeeze
21:00 — CEO pay ratio cap
21:49 — Could the dollar collapse?
26:59 — Bonds & the Fed
28:35 — Debt ceiling fix
31:12 — Trump Accounts vs 401k
34:42 — Tax dollar waste myth
36:46 — Universal school meals
40:11 — Part-time for new parents
42:28 — Fighting monopolies
44:14 — Policy ideas for Texas
47:34 — Mamdani goes federal?

50:43 — Top 1% wealth myth

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This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery.

Chapters:

00:01:14 Announcements

00:03:24 Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised

00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression"

00:11:49 Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation?

00:42:14 Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban

00:45:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE

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Thirty million Americans, more or less, work for themselves. They freelance, do gig work, have solo LLCs, or — as a certain economist says — participate in “ non-employee employment.” The economics of their situation is harder than it needs to be. Making self-employment more viable is good for everyone in the labor market, because when workers have options, they also have more power. Plus: Kathryn Anne Edwards testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, and a congressman implied she wasn't a real American. She has thoughts.

Chapters:

0:00 — Start/Announcements

1:21 — Retcon: Bad banks, good overtime, and testifying before Congress (again)

18:17 — Big Pilcrow: Freelancers & non-employer businesses

44:42 — Executive orders: national anthem singing rules, Congressional attendance policy

47:20 — Spiritual sponsors: Supportive listeners and horchada + cold brew coffee

49:01 — Credits

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(Originally aired 7/1/2025) Newly minted college graduates are having a harder time landing that first job than in recent years. Is it AI? Is college useless? Is it a crisis? (No. No. And not yet…) College graduates under 27 still have significantly lower unemployment rates (5.8%) than high school graduates of the same age (6.9%). What economist Kathryn Edwards finds worrying is that these new workers, who are typically a lagging economic indicator, may in this case be a bellwether of a weakening economy.

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Read More:

• The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates [New York Fed, 2025]
• Hires, from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [St. Louis Fed, 2025]
• Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle [Labour Economics 2016]
• Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful? [The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020]

A certain kind of wealthy American has been griping out loud lately — about taxes, about progressive cities, about how unappreciated they are for the jobs they create, the stuff they buy, and the tips they hand out. A narrative is coalescing around them too: that the top 10% of earners now do so much of the spending, the U.S. economy relies on them. But an economy that depends so much on the people at the top isn't the healthy one the country deserves — it’s just wearing a nice suit.

Chapters:

00:00:56 Announcements: Q&A episode questions wanted
00:01:18 Retcon: The 86 debate; FDR's full "calamity howling executives" quote 00:05:32 Terms & Conditions: Wealth Effect and Zugzwang
00:09:26 Big Pilcrow: Should we cherish the ultra-wealthy?
00:36:41 Executive Orders: Retire "mummies"; union credits on red carpets 00:39:34 Spiritual Sponsors: Mellow Cello podcast; enormous floral arrangements

Further Reading

Moody's claim that the top 10% of earners now drive nearly half of consumer spending in the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571

The Minneapolis Fed on what the underlying data actually shows.https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/have-us-consumers-gone-k-shaped-a-review-of-the-data

Wealthy part-time New Yorkers reacting to a proposed pied-à-terre tax in the Financial Times.https://www.ft.com/content/3283eaab-e9cf-41e6-a028-5a02fb6f4615

The Wall Street Journal on second-home taxes spreading from New York City to other states, including the San Diego homeowner who'd like to be cherished.https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/taxes-on-second-homes-are-springing-up-across-america-93a64448

Full reading list at https://optimisteconomy.substack.com

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Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders? Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

It wasn’t just hourly factory jobs that were supposed to come with a 40-hour workweek. Even salaried jobs were supposed to get overtime pay, though very few do do anymore. Overtime protections are the only legal mechanism enforcing work-hour limits, and for 50 years, the salary threshold that determines who qualifies to receive overtime has been left to erode. Employers found another workaround too: just call the sandwich maker a "sandwich manager." Now, the new no-tax-on-overtime deduction isn't protecting workers — it's rewarding the kind of overwork it was overtime was originally designed to punish. Fixing the law governing overtime would be a huge and instant boost not just to the U.S. economy, but to our work-life balance.

Chapters:
00:01:43 Announcements
00:02:32 Retcon: Economic data reliability
00:05:54 Terms & Conditions: Tenterhooks; Perquisite
00:08:23 Big Pilcrow: Overtime
00:45:27 Executive Orders: Badge of shame for working past 40 hours; more colorful cars
00:46:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Awesome first bosses; Faraday e-bike

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Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders? Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Cash is dirty, inconvenient, and so last century. Some 70% of Americans under age 50 think its days are numbered. But we still need those greenbacks, if as an alternative to banks. More than 4% of households are “unbanked,” and three times as many are “underbanked,” meaning bank services mostly don’t work for them, so rely on services like check cashers or payday lenders. And that's before you get to the racial disparities in who banks approve for credit. Reviving banking services at the post office might be one way to help the unbanked and keep from handing yet more power to the finance sector.

Chapters:

00:00:48 Announcements

00:02:30 Retcon: Semiquincentennia

00:03:35 Terms & Conditions: ChexSystems, Unbanked

00:05:46 Big Pilcrow: What’s keeping the U.S. from going cashless?

00:38:28 Executive Orders: Regulate youth sports schedules; Airline baggage fees by weight.

00:40:56 Spiritual Sponsors: Artemis splashdown; Friends with season tickets.

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Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Jobs aren't being added. Prices keep climbing. GDP barely grew at the end of 2025, and a ‘meh’ 2% last quarter. Shouldn’t this be a recession? Not so far. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards walks through the clear cause of each bad number: Tariffs explain the prices and foul mood. Mass deportations explain the jobs. The government shutdown explained last quarter. Still, knowing the passing reasons for economic pain doesn't make it hurt less. And none of it changes the long-term economic reforms we still need.

Chapters:

00:01:06 Announcements

00:01:57 Retcon: Wealth at retirement

00:03:52 Terms & Conditions: Recession, Slack, Tight, Loose, Goodflation/Badflation

00:09:10 Centerpiece: What is going on with the U.S. Economy right now? The vibe is don’t panic. But don’t not panic.

00:53:38 Executive Orders: Free work parking. Legislators do their own taxes.

00:55:00 Spiritual Sponsors: Genre-specific bookstores and great newstands

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(Originally aired 5/06/25) What sparks progress? The right political conditions? Social pressure? Economic upheaval? In response to two listeners’ questions, we say… both none of those and all of the above. As an example, we talk through just one bit of the New Deal in the 1930s, which was the law to limit child labor. That movement started decades earlier, and continued decades afterward. For those keeping score at home, this a sneaky third installment of Kathryn’s 68-part series on the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.

Chapters:

00:01:08 Announcements

00:01:43 Retcon

00:03:58 Terms & Conditions

00:07:03 Centerpiece

00:42:56 Executive Orders

00:46:25 Spiritual Sponsors

• Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com
• Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.
• Chat with other Optimists on Substack.
• Shirts, caps and totes, oh my!: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy
• Reach us at optimist.economy@gmail.com