Net Assessment

On this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the question of military victory. Is there such a thing? Is military victory achievable for either Russia or Ukraine? And if so, at what cost? And will we ever see a war that ends in unconditional surrender? Grievances for President Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine by siding with China and Russia; the Saudi's dissembling on the threats to the Kingdom; and the latest stories of corruption within the Trump administration. Attas to the Ukrainians who rescued a wounded soldier by drone, to Anthony Scaramucci for lasting twice as long in his job as Katie Zacharia, and to Stimson's Evan Cooper – who is getting married! Congrats to Evan and Grace.

Show Links:

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Stephen Biddle, Sam Winter-Levy, and Yuri Zhukov, "The Myth of Military Victory: The Dangerous Idea Driving Today's Wars of Choice," Foreign Affairs, October 6, 2026.

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Ahmed Al Omran, Nicolas Parasie, and Andrew England "Saudi Arabia to postpone 'Davos in the desert' after Houthi attacks," Financial Times, October 19, 2026.

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The Iran War, Eight Months On: Reassessing Costs, Consequences, and US Interests, Stimson Center, November 5, 2026.

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Henry Stimson Diary August 9-10, 1945, National Security Archive.

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Drone rescuing Ukrainian soldier, X post, October 19, 2026.

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Dana Mattioli, Josh Dawsey, Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, and Vera Bergengruen, Inside Kimberly Guilfoyle's Last Days as Ambassador to Greece, Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2026.

As the artificial intelligence revolution advances and the Trump administration questions the value of outside experts, think tanks are facing a worsening supply-demand imbalance. Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent Anthropic report outlining different economic scenarios and apply its lessons to better understand how AI will transform think tanks and the broader foreign policy community in Washington. Chris welcomes members of Congress questioning funding for the Iran War, Melanie criticizes the administration for massively subsidizing a steel mill in Iowa, and Zack laments civilian leaders for involving the military in political messaging.

Show Links:

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"Scenarios for Our Economic Future," Anthropic, September 2026.

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Helene Cooper and John Ismay, "Hegseth Lays Out His Military Vision," New York Times, September 30, 2026.

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Nela Richardson and Tim Decker, "The rise – and rise – of knowledge work," ADP Research, April 21, 2026

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Education Pays, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Gene Healy, "Want to Stop the Iran War? Don't Pay the Bill," Reason, October 2, 2026.

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Mike Yeo, "After yearslong delay, Taiwan receives first pair of new F-16s," Breaking Defense, October 2, 2026.

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Hunter Slingbaum and Kelly Grieco, "Runway Trap: How Chinese Missiles and Rockets Could Neutralize Taiwan's Air Force," Stimson Center, March 5, 2026.

With Zack out collecting frequent flyer miles, Tom Karako joins Chris and Melanie to discuss the Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury. When the war began in February, were the administration's stated objectives aligned with the resources needed to fight it? Are they now? What does America's use of so many high-end weapons tell us about our strategy? And what can we learn about the activities of the State and Treasury Departments during the war?

Chris has a grievance for corruption in defense contracting, Tom remembers the late Sen. Jon Kyl, and Melanie wishes Capitals hockey player Alexander Ovechkin would stop campaigning for Vladimir Putin.

Show Links:

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Lead Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury, DOD Office of Inspector General, September 14, 2026.

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Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations in Iran, Congressional Budget Office, September 15, 2026.

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Noah Robertson, Tara Copp, Warren P. Strobel, and Alex Horton, More US Troops Have Died Amid Iran War Than Pentagon Has Disclosed Publicly, Washington Post, September 18, 2026.

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Ellen Milligan, Michael Neinaber, and Andrea Palasciano, US Warns Allies of Missile Delivery Delays Due to Shortage, Bloomberg, September 18, 2026.

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Eric Schmitt, Cost of Iran War Estimated at $43.6 Billion, New York Times, September 18, 2026.

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Robert Klemko, X post, September 17, 2026.

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James Paterson, Speech to the Submarine Institute of Australia, September 22, 2026.

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Tom Corben, Jennifer Parker, Satoru Mori, and Jeffrey Hornung, Australia, Japan, and the United States: Implementing a Trilateral Denial Strategy along the First Island Chain, United States Studies Centre, September 15, 2026.

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Jack Goldsmith, Glenn Fine, Jen Patja, What Does the Inspector General Do?, Lawfare podcast, December 10, 2024.

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William Turton, Avi Asher-Schapiro, Molly Redden and Kirsten Berg, "The FBI Anti-Corruption Squad Was Circling Susan Collins — Until Trump Got in the Way," ProPublica,

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September 22, 2026.

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Richard Gowan, "Shrink the UN: The Next Secretary-General Must Get Back to Basics," Foreign Affairs, September 21, 2026.

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U.S. Foreign Policy and the Separation of Powers: A Conference on Law, Power, and Democratic Accountability in a Changing International Order, Tufts University, September 24–25, 2026.

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"The Second Trump-Xi Summit: Takeaways from the US, China, and Russia," Online Event, Stimson Center, September 28, 2026.

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The Sandra Day O'Connor–Washington Union Debate Series at George Washington University, October 3, 2026.

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Tom Karako, "Sing Missile Muse: America's Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names," War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021.

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Josh Hawley, "Why I wont Vote to Add Finland and Sweden to NATO," The National Interest, August 1, 2022.

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Tom Cotton, "Speech on the Senate Floor", August 3, 2022.

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Tom Karako and Mark Cancian, "Munitions Shortages after Epic Fury," CSIS, August 5, 2026.

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Amy B. Wang and Alexei Koseff, "Jon Kyl, a former top Republican in the Senate, dies at 84," Washington Post.

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Chris Lunday, Germany Plans a €12 Billion Missile Program to Deter Putin, Politico Europe, August 21, 2026.

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Laura Pitel and Christopher Miller, Germany Urges US to Allow Patriot Missile Production in Europe, Financial Times, September 23, 2026.

In this show, the Net Assessment crew ponders the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Twenty-five years after 9/11 and five years after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. what lessons have we learned about warfare? Does our experience in Afghanistan, and now in Iran, demonstrate that the American military has an outsized fixation on lethality?

To better prepare for future conflicts, how should strategists think about how adversary human networks behave? Attas for former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, and grievances for Argentina's Javier Milei threatening to retake the Falklands.

*The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Show Links:

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Jonathan Schroden, What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough, War on the Rocks, August 17, 2026.

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Gregg Jaffe, Why the United States Can't Quit Its Wars, New York Times, August 30, 2026.

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Evan Cooper, The Shadow of 9/11 on Future US Foreign Policy, Stimson Center, September 3, 2026.

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Christopher Preble and Michael Cohen, The Perils of Lethality, Stimson Center, June 24, 2025.

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Greg Myre, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after clashes with Defense Secretary Hegseth, NPR, September 1, 2026.

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Power Politics: Thucydides to Trump. The Exercise of Power Internationally through the Ages, The Hellenic Centre, September 22, 2026.

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Javier Milei's Outburst over the Falklands is a Mark of Weakness, The Economist, September 4, 2026.

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Nancy A. Youssef, Missy Ryan, and Michael Scherer, Dan Driscoll's Parting Shot, The Atlantic, September 1, 2026.

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Jason Dempsey, Coming to Terms with America's Undeniable Failure in Afghanistan, War on the Rocks, February 11, 2019.

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U.S. Department of State, "Promoting Pacific Prosperity: U.S. Engagement at the Pacific Islands Forum", September 1, 2026.

The team sits down to talk about the new OSTP report, Science: A New Golden Age. What role should the government have in the scientific enterprise? What should national scientific goals be? It is time to integrate new funding models into research and development, or does that unacceptably increase the risk for politicization of science? Does the report's emphasis on breakthroughs that benefit the public more quickly ignore the importance of foundational research?

Coming up on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Chris gives an atta to Joe Biden for making the hard decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan 5 years ago. Zack has a shoutout for Moderna and Merck for continued work on mRNA cancer vaccines, and Melanie congratulates British Prime Minister Andy Burnham for going to Kyiv and giving Ukraine classified data so it can produce Scalp long-range missiles.

Show Links:

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Gil Barndollar, "Five Years Later, Biden Was Proven Right in Withdrawing From Afghanistan," American Prospect, August 17, 2026.

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Matthew Harper, Jason Mast, and Angus Chen, "Inside Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine triumph," STAT News, August 24, 2026.

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Eric S. Edelman, "The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Turn Against South Korea," The Dispatch, August 21, 2026.

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Michael Kratsios, Science: A New Golden Age, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 2026. Includes Russell T. Vought/Michael Kratsios Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies, July 21, 2026.

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Vannevar Bush, Science: The Endless Frontier, GPO, 1945.

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Bill Ackman, X post, August 19, 2026.

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Andrea Palasciano, US Presses Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts, Bloomberg, August 14, 2026.

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George Parker and Polina Ivanova, Andy Burnham Condemns Russia's 'Outrageous Threats' to UK During Kyiv Visit, Financial Times, August 24, 2026.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Michael Fuchs's recent article arguing for a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. They also discuss the impact of the Iran War and shifting American attitudes towards Israel as well as the Saudi-U.S. nuclear deal and the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani collective defense agreement. Chris commends the Congressional Budget Office's battleship assessment, and Melanie gives credit to CSIS's team for its work on munitions, while Zack laments the Congress giving the executive branch more leeway on tariffs.

*The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Show Links:

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Michael Fuchs, "America Must Let Go of the Middle East," Foreign Affairs, August 8, 2026.

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Matthew Kroenig and Henry Sokolski, "The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster," Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2026.

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Daniel Poneman, "Critics of the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Have It Exactly Wrong," New York Times, August 6, 2026.

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"Advancing American Safety, Strength, and Prosperity in Southeast Asia," U.S. Mission to ASEAN, July 23, 2026.

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Neil Irwin, "Trump may get a big, new tariff authority," Axios, August 6, 2026.

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"The Navy's New Battleship Program: Costs and Implications for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base, Congressional Budget Office", August 5, 2026.

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Philip E. Auerswald, "The Irrelevance of the Middle East", The American Interest, May 2007

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Justin Logan, "Why the Middle East Still Doesn't Matter", Politico Magazine, October 9, 2014.

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"The U.S.-Saudi Agreement for Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions", Arms Control Association, August 7, 2026.

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Christopher Preble and Alessandro Perri, "Assumption Testing: The Iran War Is a Case of Alliance Entanglement", Stimson Center, August 3, 2026.

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Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "In a Nuclear World, Arms Control Is the Only True Deterrent", Inkstick, August 10. 2026.

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Mark Cancian and Chris Park, Six Reasons Why the US is Low on Munitions, CSIS, July 31, 2026.

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CSIS Missile Defense Project

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Alexandra Sharp, The Middle East Tries Its Hand at a NATO-Style Pact, Foreign Policy, August 7, 2026.

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Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, Trump's Saudi Nuclear Deal is Diplomatic Malpractice, Foreign Policy, July 27, 2026.

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Eric S. Edelman, With the Saudi Deal, Trump Risks Aiding and Abetting a Nuclear Arms Race, The Dispatch, July 28, 2026.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss public attitudes toward the United States and China, and the Trump administration's response -- which mostly seems to deny that they matter. Why does much of the world view the United States less favorably, and China more favorably, than it did just a few years ago? Is this just a temporary decline that can be overcome with a new administration or nicer advisors? Does it even matter to American interests if we aren't loved? Grievances to the Pentagon for its secrecy and dissembling around casualties in the Iran War, and for thinking that its problems can be solved with more testosterone, and to the Coast Guard for its Polar Security Cutter program which is grossly overbudget and badly delayed. Attas to members of Congress for calling out the Pentagon's secrecy and dissembling around the Iran War, to those who pushed back on the Trump administration's plan to investigate the New York Times and Google for a series of leaks surrounding the new Air Force One, and for those uncovering and publishing the COVID files.

Show Links:

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Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner, "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively Than the U.S.," Pew Research Center, July 15, 2026.

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"America's Report Card in Southeast Asia," Net Assessment, War on the Rocks, April 11, 2024.

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Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby, @USWPColby, X, July 14, 2026.

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Opinion, "Iran, China, Canada? A Defense of Trump's Grand Strategy," Interesting Times, New York Times, July 23, 2026.

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Biyon Sony Joseph, "Washington misreads middle power cooperation," Lowy Institute, July 23, 2026.

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Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, and John Ismay, "Number of U.S. Troop Deaths Suddenly Appears Lower on Pentagon Website," New York Times, July 23, 2026.

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Helene Cooper, "Pentagon Changes How It Reports Casualties in Iran War," July 26, 2026.

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Tom Nichols, "The American People Need the Truth About the Iran War," The Atlantic, July 22, 2026.

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Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire, "War by Any Other Name," The Atlantic, July 21, 2026

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Jenny Leonard, Trump's Aides See China Cheating on Trade, But Shun Reprisal, Bloomberg, July 15, 2026.

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Alexander Burns, A New Report Offers a Stark Warning to Centrists, July 24, 2026.

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Sam Westfall and Dan Diamond, Fauci's Diary Reveals His Thoughts on a 'Rambling' Trump and His Own Fame, Washington Post, July 27, 2026.

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Malte Humpert, U.S. Polar Security Cutter Delayed to 2033 as Costs Top $6 Billion, GAO Warns, gCaptain, July 22, 2026.

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Ron Wyden, Statement on Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026, July 22, 2026.

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Sebastian Junger, "There's More to Peak Military Performance Than Testosterone. I've Seen It." Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2026.

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Michael M. Grynbaum and Jonah E. Bromwich, "U.S. Withdraws Subpoenas Issued to New York Times Journalists," New York Times, July 23, 2026

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a look at the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment. Does the document get the threats, and their prioritiztion, right? How does Trump administration policy align with what the intelligence community determines to be the most critical threats facing the US in the next year? Has the two-decades-old ODNI experiment has run its course? Chris commends Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center for jointly honoring the late Stimson Center president, Brian Finlay, with an award in his name, the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award. Zack has some kind words for Senator Lindsey Graham, who just passed away, and Melanie criticizes NATO leaders for wimping out at the end of a summit where the primary goal was to demonstrate the ability to fight.

Show Links:

• 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, ODNI, March 14, 2026.
• Andreas Kluth, If the US Keeps Messing with this Spy Agency, It'll Pay a High Price, Bloomberg, July 9, 2026.
• Dan Lomas and Matthew Savill, Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran, and the US Intelligence Community, Royal United Services Institute, May 21, 2026.
• Ott Tammik, Erodgan's NATO Gift of Revolvers Runs into Europe's Gun Laws, Bloomberg, July 10, 2026.
• Aaron Blake, Tulsi Gabbard Went Down to Georgia, and No One in the Trump Administration Wants to Take Credit, CNN, February 5, 2026.
• "Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center Launch the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award," Stimson Center, July 1, 2026.
• Melanie Marlowe, X, 10:28 PM – 7/6/26.

With Chris galavanting across Europe, Stimson's Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to debate whether the United States is undermining deterrence in Europe. What does a decreased U.S. conventional commitment mean for the risk of nuclear escalation? And might Vladimir Putin see this as an opportunity to test the alliance by attacking a NATO member, either now or in the future? Emma also commends Scotland's Tartan Army while Melanie criticizes the firing of General Christopher Donahue and Zack laments the dismissal of career officials by the acting Director of National Intelligence.

Show Links:

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Celeste A. Wallander, "The Coming Crisis of NATO Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2026.

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Rose Gottemoeller, "The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.

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Ellen Nakashima and Warren P. Strobel, "New acting intel czar Bill Pulte starts trimming staff as Trump urged," Washington Post, June 25, 2026.

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Daryl Press and Jennifer Lind, "The Broken Nuclear Umbrella: What Comes After Extended Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.

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Recommended Reading: Evan Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, "Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2026.

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Samuel Charap and Hiski Ahukkala, Europe's Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026.

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Michael Kofman, The Next Russia Threat: Moscow's Military Power after Ukraine, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.

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David J. Bobb and Tony Williams, Divided Over the Declaration: How an Enduring Debate Sustains the Vision of America.

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the benefits and costs for U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. bases on their territory. As traditional allies have limited air space and basing access to the United States during the Iran war, has a major fault line in American strategy been publicly exposed? And if allies do limit wartime access in the future, will it stop the United States from fighting both wise and unwise wars? Grievances for Keir Starmer's government in the UK, especially its approach to national security and energy; for Tulsi Gabbards' decision to release information about supposed U.S. biolabs on her way out the door, and to all of those saying that stopping a war requires a vote of Congress, but starting one doesn't. Attas to Americans (and Canadians and Mexicans) for welcoming the world for the World Cup games; a lukewarm atta to the New York Knicks for winning the NBA Championship; and an enthusiastic atta to Melanie's niece Miriam for making the swim team!

Show Links:

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Rachel Metz, "Iran and the Hidden Cost of Wartime Access," Foreign Affairs.

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Austin Carson, Rachel Metz, and Paul Poast, "Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances," International Organization. 2025;79(S1):S103-S116. doi:10.1017/S0020818325100982.

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Tongfi Kim, "Why Alliances Entangle But Seldom Entrap States,' Security Studies, 2011; 20(3), 350–377.

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Jared Isaacman, X post, June 9, 2026.

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John Bew, What's Britain's Place in the Post-Iran World Order?", The Spectator (US), April 16, 2026.

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Ivana Kottasova, Two Top UK Defense Officials Resign over Military Spending in Fresh Blow to Keir Starmer, CNN, June 12, 2026.

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Zack Cooper (editor), "Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific," National Bureau of Asian Research, June 15, 2026.

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Mira Rapp-Hooper and Zack Cooper, "Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan," Foreign Policy, June 11, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a chat about how Mexico is handling the drug cartels, which continue to perpetrate terrible violence and facilitate massive corruption in the country. Can President Claudia Sheinbaum enact an anti-cartel strategy that will reduce the violence? Are institutions in government and the private sector too corrupt for any strategy to succeed? Will Trump, whose patience with Sheinbaum is limited, order military strikes on cartel targets in Mexico? And does she have any leverage to prevent this?

Chris recognizes the life and legacy of Brian Finlay, Stimson's President and CEO, who passed away on June 3rd.

Show Links:

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David Mora, Why Mexico's Cartels are So Hard to Defeat: The Real Test of Sheinbaum's Security Strategy, Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2026.

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Jim Geraghty, In the Information War, the US Unilaterally Disarmed, Washington Post, May 26, 2026.

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Gavin Bade, Santiago Perez, and Christopher Otts, The Trump Administration Wants Autos Under USMCA to Be at Least 50% Made in America, Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2026.

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Fact Sheet: AUKUS Pillar II Signature Project, Department of Defense, May 30, 2026.

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Maria Abi-Habib and Eric Schmitt, Guatemala Agrees to Joint Strikes with U.S. Against Drug Gangs, New York Times, May 28, 2026.

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"Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy | The Lionel Gelber Prize".

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Declan Walsh, "Inside the Ebola Epicenter, the Virus Rages With Little to Stop It," New York Times, May 30, 2026.

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Michael Cohen and Will A. Smith, "Is the Iran War Worth It?" May 29, 2026.

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"Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As Delivered)," U.S. Department of War, May 30, 2026.

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Stimson Remembers the Life and Legacy of President and CEO Brian Finlay • Stimson Center

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Wess Mitchell's proposed U.S. strategy of consolidation. They discuss whether this strategy would finally realign America's objectives with its resources. They also question the Trump administration's ability or willingness to execute such an approach. Chris commends Tom Stevenson's essay on the war in Afghanistan, Melanie questions the lack of American ambassadors worldwide, and Zack expresses frustration with the meager results of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Show Links:

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Robbie Gramer, Trump Still Hasn't Appointed More Than 100 Ambassadors, Some to Key Allies, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2026.

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Chao Deng, This Arkansas Town is Humming with the Sound of Missile Making, Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2026.

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Zachary Federico, Utah Breaks Down Occupational Licensing Barriers for Veterans, ALEC, May 14, 2026.

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Sean Hannity interview with Donald Trump, May 14, 2026.

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Wolfgang Munchau, Boots on the Ground is Trump's Best Option, UnHerd, May 11, 2026

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Tom Stevenson, We Were Doing Well When I Left, London Review of Books, May 2026.

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Gil Barndollar and Jason Dempsey, Don't Believe the Generals, The Atlantic, September 2, 2022.

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A. Wess Mitchell, "A Grand Strategy of Consolidation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026.

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Sal Mercogliano, "The Great Battleship Debate," What's Going on With Shipping channel, YouTube, May 12, 2026.

Do we live in a world governed only by force, one in which the United States' military and economic power alone will advance U.S. interests? Or are the Trump administration's efforts to intimidate even U.S. allies and partners bound to generate resistance? And what will be the consequences for Americans if Trump's predatory behavior fails? Grievances for Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist now building China's i-BRAIN lab, for Beijing's efforts to block U.S. economic sanctions, and to the U.S. State Department for refusing to recognize foreign service officers killed in the service of the country. Attas to Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy for declining to bail out Spirit Airlines, for King Charles for his flawless visit to the United States, and to those members of Congress finally standing up to Trump's claim that he can wage war wherever he wants, for as long as he wants.

Show Links:

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Stephen Walt, "The Predatory Hegemon" Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026.

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Elissa Miolene, "Exiled from State, America's foreign service holds its own memorial," Devex, May 4, 2026.

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"China's Commerce Ministry blocks US sanctions against five refineries," Reuters, May 2, 2026.

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"Sean Duffy stands up for taxpayers," Washington Post, May 3, 2026.

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Alex Bristow, "James Curran is Wrong about Japan's Realist PM and China," Sidney Morning Herald, May 3, 2026.

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David Kirton, "Convicted Former Harvard Scientist Rebuilds Brain Computer Lab in China," Reuters, April 30, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about whether the United Nations can and should continue in its current form. Has it outlived its original purposes? Does it serve the interests of the United States and the world? Should the United States continue to reduce its presence at the UN, or should it work to make the international body more relevant and effective? What should be the focus of the Secretary-General who takes the helm in 2027?

Chris is appalled at the unserious leadership at the top of the FBI, Zack has a shoutout for Anthropic, which is working with the US government, financial institutions, and other major entities to understand their vulnerabilities to increasingly sophisticated AI, and Melanie objects to the obvious and growing corruption in Washington.

*The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.

Show Links:

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Jeremy Lott, "The president and the pope: Trump tangles with an American pontiff," Washington Examiner, April 17, 2026.

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Sarah Fitzpatrict, "The FBI Director Is MIA," The Atlantic, April 17, 2026.

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Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn't Matter: Nuclear Crises and the Failure of Theory," April 16, 2026.

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"Untangling the Web of US Alliances," Stimson Center, In-Person and Online Event, May 5, 2026.

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Peter Caddick-Adams, Can the United Nations Survive?", Engelsberg Ideas, April 15, 2026.

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Impact Exchange: Reimagining Economies Through Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, February 24, 2026.

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Volodymyr Zelensky, X post, April 19, 2026.

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Saikrishna Prakash, The Presidential Pardon: The Short Clause with a Long, Troubled History.

On this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack consider whether the porcupine strategy that Taiwan is currently implementing is the best plan to deter or defend against China. What could Taiwan be doing better, and how can the United States and other friendly countries help? And have we learned any lessons from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that are relevant to a Taiwan conflict? Chris laments the administration's proposed defense budget, and Melanie pans VP JD Vance for going to Hungary to campaign for Victor Orban. Zack gives a shout out to the astronauts and engineers behind Artemis II, and Melanie commends the U.S. military's successful rescue of downed pilots in Iran.

Show Links:

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Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age," War on the Rocks, March 27, 2026.

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Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense," CNAS, February 26, 2026.

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Stephanie Yang, "As Taiwan steels its defenses against China, some are hatching escape plans," CNN, April 3, 2026.

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Editorial, "Taiwan's self-defense paradox," Washington Post, April 5, 2026.

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Raymond Kuo and Catherine Kish, "Taiwan's Will to Fight Isn't the Problem," War on the Rocks, September 5, 2025.

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Alastair Gale, Japan's Tomahawk Missile Order Delayed by US Use in Iran, Bloomberg, April 3, 2026.

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Gerry Doyle, "US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missiles for Iran War," Bloomberg, April 4, 2026.

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Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, and Humeyra Pamuk, "How a Perilous US Rescue Mission in Iran Nearly Went Off Course," Reuters, April 7, 2026.

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Supporting Stimson

What are the goals in the US war in Iran? Is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz manageable, or is the Iranian threat to shipping a challenge that must be confronted? And can it be resolved at an acceptable cost? Melanie, Chris, and Zack, discuss the latest from the war, with a particular focus on the threat posed to international shipping in the vital waterway. Grievances for Jeremy Corbyn, and for the Trump administration's decision to remove sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Attas to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichii Sanae for navigating her meeting with President Trump, to a federal judge for affirming that the press has First Amendment rights, and to Sean Penn for skipping the Academy Awards ceremony. Melania also acknowledges the incredible life and career of New York Times' war reporter John Burns who passed this month.

Show Links:

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Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield: In the Strait, Iran Holds the Advantage—and America Has No Good Options," Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2026.

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Rosemary Kelanic, "Trump Is Making Jimmy Carter's Mistake on Iran and Oil," New York Times, March 9, 2026.

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Charlie Savage, "Striking Down Pentagon Press Limits, Judge Vindicates Independent Journalism," New York Times, March 20, 2026.

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Michael Cohen and Christopher Preble, "The Perils of Lethality," Stimson Center, June 24, 2026

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Phil Klay, "Trump Has Made a Fundamental Miscalculation about Iran," New York Times, March 22, 2026.

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Eli Stokols, Ben Johansen, Jack Detsch, and Paul McLeary, "Inside the White House Plan to Sell the Iran War Online," Politico, March 18, 2026.

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Alan Cowell, "John F. Burns, Prize-Winning Foreign Correspondent for The Times, Dies at 81," New York Times, March 13, 2026.

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Jack Watling, "Iran's Hormuz Blockade is Its Most Powerful Card Against Trump and Israel. It Won't Back Down Easily," The Guardian, March 16, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America's allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States?

Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore.

Show Links:

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James M. Lindsay, "Will US Allies Succeed in Hedging Against the United States?", Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026.

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Shayan Sardarizadeh, X feed.

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Emmanuel Macron, Speech on France's Nuclear Deterrence, March 4, 2026.

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"At Last, Reasons to be Cheerful about European Tech," The Economist, March 1, 2026.

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Henry J. Gomez, "Vance's anti-war posture collides with his more hawkish views on Iran," NBC News, March 3, 2026.

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Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, "Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran," Financial Times, March 3, 2026

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Flight 93 National Memorial (U.S. National Park Service)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Trump's proposal for a Golden Fleet of new American "battleships." They question the strategic logic, timelines, cost estimates, and political dynamics behind the proposal. Chris commends USA Hockey for its gold medal performance at the Olympics while Melanie questions Eileen Gu's comments there and Zack expresses appreciation for the Supreme Court's tariff decision.

Show Links:

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Eli Rosenberg, "Who is US women's hockey star Megan Keller? A BC alum, and more," NBC Connecticut, February 19, 2026.

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Christopher A. Preble and Celia Clark, "The Brooklyn Navy Yard revived | 12 | A defense conversion case study," 2016.

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Sam Mercoliagno, X post, February 22, 2026.

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Ben Jensen, "Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

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Fighting Instructions, US Navy, February 9, 2026.

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Carline Downey, "Alysa Liu Is a Spunky, Gen Z National Treasure and a Force of American Athleticism," National Review, February 21, 2026.

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Sean Gregory, "'I Don't Believe in Limits': How Eileen Gu Became Freestyle Skiing's Biggest Star," Time, January 22, 2026.

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Trent Hone, "Why the U.S. Navy Doesn't Build Battleships Anymore," War on the Rocks, January 12, 2026.

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Mark Cancian, "The Golden Fleet's Battleship Will Never Sail," CSIS, December 23, 2025.

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U.S. Navy, "Webpage currently under construction," accessed February 24, 2026.

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Ellen Nakashima et al., "Tulsi Gabbard's appearances at Fulton County FBI raid raises questions," Washington Post, January 30, 2026

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Zack Cooper, "Asia After America," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss a recent Council on Foreign Relations special report which explores varies grand strategies, and proposes an alternative known as "Resolute Global Leadership." Is this strategy realistic? Does it accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives? And what did the report leave out, or fail to develop adequately, to ensure that it will succeed where others failed? Grievances for what Jeff Bezos has done to the Washington Post, to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their doomsday clock, and to Donald Trump for weighing in on the Japanese parliamentary elections in favor of Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party. Attas to Takaichi for her stunning and unprecedented victory, to Javier Milei for turning around Argentina's economy, and to Anduril's Palmer Luckey for admitting that the Pentagon spends too much on the wrong stuff.

Show Links:

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America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership, Council on Foreign Relations, January 2026

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Monica Pitrelli and Sydney Goh, U.S. can spend billions less on defense, says Anduril Industries founder, CNBC, February 6, 2026

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Benjamin Mullin, Katie Robertson and Erik Wemple, Washington Post Cuts More Than 300 Jobs, The New York Times, February 4, 2026

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Commission on the National Defense Strategy

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Jack Butler, "A Doomsday Crock," Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026.

Zack, Melanie, and special guest Kelly Grieco take a look at the Department of War's 2026 National Defense Strategy. What does a "decent peace" with China look like? Is that what China wants? What does the document get right and wrong about burden-sharing among allies and partners? Will this strategy actually help deliver the "peace through strength" that is so important to this administration? Zack has an atta for the foreign affairs reporters at the Washington Post, Kelly has an atta for the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots, and Melanie has even more grievances for the administration's chaotic tariff policies.

Show Links:

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National Defense Strategy, Department of War, January 2026.

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Editorial Board, "Trump's Tariffs Can't Cover a Bill This Staggering," Washington Post, January 26, 2026.

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Friedrich Merz, Speech at the World Economic Forum, January 23, 2026.

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Jim Geraghty, "Tearing Apart NATO, Over a Trinket," January 20, 2026.